Pennsylvania Primary coverage for Tuesday, April 22

Guests: Lisa Caputo, Clinton campaign sr. advisor; Rep. Chaka Fattah (D-Pa.); Philadelphia Mayor Michael Nutter (D); Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.); Rep. Patrick Murphy (D-Pa.); Maria Teresa Petersen, Voto Latino; Governor Ed Rendell (D-Pa.); David Wilhelm, fmr. DNC chairman; Howard Wolfson, Clinton campaign communications director; Michelle Bernard, MSNBC political analyst; Howard Fineman, Newsweek sr. Washington correspondent & MSNBC political analyst Harold Ford, fmr. congressman (D-Tenn.) and NBC News analyst; Joe Scarborough, host of MSNBC's "Morning Joe"

KEITH OLBERMANN, MSNBC ANCHOR: The twin parallel universes of the

Democratic Party intersect again, this time in the birth state of the nation.

For Barack Obama, anything better than a 36-64 percent loss for the rest of the

primaries beginning tonight in Pennsylvania. And his lead in delegates remains

untouched.

For Hillary Clinton, anything better than victory by handful and she


could gain the lead in votes cast. If you count Florida and if you count

Michigan and if you think the caucuses didn't short change Obama's vote

margin. Oh, and if you think the Democrats are going to choose not on

delegates, but on a sentence with four ifs in it. Five ifs, should you count

the latest bizarre controversy?

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BILL CLINTON, FORMER PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: When did I say

that and to whom did I say that?

REPORTER: On WHYY radio yesterday.

CLINTON: No, no, no. That's not what I said. I think that they

played the race card. Go back and see what the question was and what my answer

was. You've got to really go something to play the race card with me. My


office is in Harlem. You have mischaracterized it to get another cheap story.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

OLBERMANN: With Andrea Mitchell and Ron Allen covering the Clinton

campaign in Philadelphia. Lee Cowan at Obama headquarters in Evansville,

Indiana. Kevin Corke on voting irregularities watch. Kelly O'Donnell with the

McCain camp. The analysis of "Meet the Press" moderator Tim Russert. "NBC


Nightly News" anchor Brian Williams, political director Chuck Todd by the

numbers. Norah O'Donnell and the exit polls and NBC News special correspondent

Tom Brokaw.

The insiders, former Congressman Harold Ford and Joe Scarborough.

Howard Fineman and the campaign listening folks and David Gregory and the RACE

FOR THE WHITE HOUSE panel, Rachel Maddow, Eugene Robinson and Pat Buchanan.


This is MSNBC's coverage of the Pennsylvania Democratic presidential

primary.

And greetings from MSNBC and NBC News world headquarters at Rockefeller

Center in New York City. Alongside Chris Matthews, I'm Keith Olbermann. You

know more about Pennsylvania than anybody since Ben Franklin retired. What do

we have?

CHRIS MATTHEWS, MSNBC ANCHOR: You know, I think it's a battle in

Pennsylvania. We'll see how it turns out. But I think it is a battle between

those that want change and those who want familiarity, predictability. I think

you're going to see that in the vote tonight. Also between those who have big

hopes, idealistic hopes and those who have basic needs that have to be met.

It's a classic struggle between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton that we have


seen going on now for months.

OLBERMANN: Polls close at 8:00 Eastern. We will begin to get an

assessment of what's happening at that point, we hope.

In the interim, our chief Washington correspondent Norah O'Donnell will

as always monitor the exit polls throughout the long evening ahead and is here

now with a preview of the first batch of sweets coming out of the

confectioner's office.

NORAH O'DONNELL, MSNBC NEWS CHIEF WASHINGTON CORRESPONDENT: And a

fascinating night I think we have ahead of us. It has been of course a hard-

fought battle in these final days. A lot of the fighting over who is most

electable in November. Well in our exit polls we found less than one in 10

voters think electability is important. In fact, nearly a majority say that


they want a candidate that will bring about change in November. We are going

to have more on that, about the new voters, lots of interesting information

coming out.

OLBERMANN: From our own experience, listening to the number it

apparently correlates to almost no degree with who you vote for. The change

number, right? It's not an automatic new guy versus old person.

N. O'DONNELL: That's right. And we have traditionally have seen that

Barack Obama tends to win those voters who care most about change.

OLBERMANN: We will see how this turns out tonight. Norah, thank you.

We will get back to you in depth in a moment.

Let's get an early read from NBC's Washington bureau chief, the

moderator of "Meet the Press," Tim Russert. Tim, good evening.


TIM RUSSERT, NBC WASHINGTON BUREAU CHIEF: Hi, Keith.

OLBERMANN: We are back here after six long weeks since the last one of

these. It makes tonight seem important. But what is it actually in here that

is important? Why specifically does Pennsylvania matter?

RUSSERT: Well as for Obama, it is the first time the voters will have

a chance to tell us what they think about Reverend Wright and the whole

comments that he made regarding clinging to faith and guns and being bitter and

so forth. What they think about Hillary Clinton. Whether she should be

staying in the race, whether or not she has a reasonable chance of the

nomination. You shake it all up, Keith, the bottom line is Hillary Clinton has

to emerge tomorrow with a rationale to continue her campaign. And that means

that she has - can present to the super delegates and the remaining Democratic


primaries and caucuses a case which says "I will be a stronger nominee than

Barack Obama in the fall and this is why. I had so many more popular votes in

Pennsylvania. He did not do well with white voters, particularly white women.

I was able to demonstrate that he cannot close the deal." Obama has a chance

tonight to say "I've told you before, I am ahead in elected delegates, I'm

ahead in popular votes, I'm ahead in contests won. This race is going

forward. But the sooner we end it the better we can focus on John McCain."

OLBERMANN: She has said a win is a win. Her people have said a win is

a win. Is that literally the case? Is there going to be rationale whether it

is 20 points, 10 points or 11 votes?

RUSSERT: No. Democrats I talked to, Keith, even people who support

her campaign, will say we need a big win. Why? They are broke. They need to


raise money. And in order to go on, to North Carolina and to Indiana and

Kentucky and West Virginia, their campaign costs $1 million a day to run. They

have to hit the Internet tomorrow morning saying that this is alive and well,

support us, support us, support us. And pay for that campaign.

If she squeaks out a victory, the concern is with her own people, a lot

of voters, donors will say gee, is this worth continuing? And what about the

super delegates? Will they step in en masse and decide to end this by moving

quickly to Obama?

On the other hand if she has a considerable win, a big victory, double

digits or beyond, then she will I think raise the money to be competitive in

Indiana and North Carolina. And take it two weeks at a time.

OLBERMANN: My squeak is your landslide, Tim. Did you have a specific


number? Is there an over/under in this?

RUSSERT: You know, everybody keeps talking about is four or five

enough? Probably not. Is 10 to 12 enough? Absolutely. What if it is eight?

OLBERMANN: What if it is eight, Tim?

RUSSERT: Over to you, Keith.

OLBERMANN: Tim Russert. Ponder what if it is eight for the rest of

the evening, as we all are. Thank you, Tim.

RUSSERT: Thank you, sir.

MATTHEWS: OK, let's go right now and find out how big the spread has

to be. Let's check in with NBC News political director Chuck Todd. Chuck, you

were saying today, I believe, on the "Today" show, seven points might be the

spread. Might be the numbers that are given here for Hillary to beat.


CHUCK TODD, NBC NEWS POLITICAL DIRECTOR: If this were a Vegas line, I

think that that's what the book makers would set it at. They would set it at

seven and say OK, you think she gets under or over. That's where you would get

the even amount of money I think from the betters.

MATTHEWS: Well let's talk about the people watching this. The super

delegates, the print guys, Ron Brownstein, the other really - let's go back to

David Broder, the people that are going to say in two days, who won and lost.

If Hillary gets one to six tonight, according to you, they will declare her

having failed in her mission. Is that right?

TODD: That is, that is because in order to have narrowed that gap for

Obama, to only lose this in that kind of range, it means that he will have

improved upon his performance in Ohio. It means he would have done better with


some white working class voters. It means he would have proven that the

Reverend Wright stuff and the bitter stuff didn't cost him votes, that he

bought his way back into the good graces of the voters.

MATTHEWS: What does it take for Hillary Clinton to win appeal, to

upset the verdict of the first 44 primaries and caucuses?

TODD: A huge victory. A huge victory wouldn't be just winning the

voters she had been winning in Ohio. And granted that kind of big victory as

Tim was saying, you know, he joked about the eight. But something in those

double digits where all of a sudden, you know, she actually started winning

some suburbs votes, some suburban Philadelphia votes, a vote that a lot of

folks assumed would be Obama votes. Start cutting into his base a little bit.

Not just swapping him among white working class voters, but actually starting


to beat him among some of these college educated folks.

MATTHEWS: Is that why she made those incredible comments the other

night on Keith's show about what she is going to do to Iran if it makes a move

Israel? Was she really going for an ethnic vote there to try to counter that

suburban problem she has got?

TODD: I think she was going for a couple of things there. I think

this was talking to older voters, talking to veterans. When you look at the

makeup of both North Carolina and - Pennsylvania and North Carolina and

Indiana, her voters are these older voters who are more attuned to some of

these international things potentially and maybe more willing to listen to some

of the fear card stuff.

MATTHEWS: Thanks for that line, Chuck, thank you very much.


Let's go now and check in with the Clinton campaign itself. NBC's

Andrea Mitchell is at Clinton headquarters in Philadelphia. Andrea, are they

buying our notion of the line or rather Chuck's notion of a seven-point break

point? Anything less is a loss for her, seven is enough to say she won but she

needs to break out in double digits if she wants to start this campaign over

again?

ANDREA MITCHELL, NBC NEWS CORRESPONDENT: Publicly, they are not buying

that. They are saying a win is a win. Even pointing out Barack Obama said

today that anything over 50 percent is a win for Senator Clinton.

So they are saying a win is win. That's what Hillary Clinton said

today in a brief press conference in Conshohocken, Pennsylvania. It's what she

has said in satellite interviews. But they are clearly concerned. She has


done nine satellite television interviews this afternoon alone trying to get

out the vote.

And clearly they will be disappointed with anything that's three, or

four points if it does turn out to be that narrow because she won't have the

momentum. She won't have the wind at her back as Bill Clinton said at her

final rally last night. She needs a big push out of here to go strong in

Indiana as they try to get the money rolling in again. Chris?

MATTHEWS: How do you read these comments By Bill Clinton today denying

something he said yesterday about accusing Barack Obama of playing the race

card, being caught on tape WHYY yesterday and radio denying it in the face of

all reality, that he had said that yesterday? And then having - Senator

Clinton coming out and basically issuing an ultimatum to Tehran and saying


we'll go to war with you if you go to war with Israel - an amazing policy

statement, a few hours before an election. Are they desperate? Is this what's

going on? Are they rattled? What's going on?

MITCHELL: I think the Bill Clinton thing is rattling because he was

very effective last night in the closing rally. And then it turns out that he

said on the local NPR station that he had not played the race card and even

suggested that the Obama camp had.

The Clinton people do have several memos from people inside the Obama

campaign suggesting all of this racial bias on Bill Clinton's part. He

obviously feels very deeply, very sensitively that this is unfair. He really

does not see what happened in South Carolina as a way a lot of other people do

see it, the way he's been criticized for it.


So you know, when he was caught, it was an open mike, saying with the

profanity I can't, you know, get into trouble for what I just said, can I? And

then today when questioned about it, he bristled and it's classic Bill

Clinton. You have the Bill Clinton last night with thousands of people on the

Palestra on the Penn campus, rousing the crowd and rallying people to his

wife's side and the Bill Clinton causing another controversy today.

The Clinton people will tell you that it does not matter. Mike Nutter,

the mayor said, look, this isn't important. People care about the gas prices.

But obviously, it was a distraction.

MATTHEWS: You know, a lot of people would rather get an occasional

true word even if they have to take a dirty one. Anyway, thank you Andrea, for

that report.


Barack Obama is spending the night in Indiana which holds its primary

two weeks from today. NBC's Lee Cowan is in Evansville with the Obama

campaign. Lee, interesting spot for him to be tonight in receiving the

results.

LEE COWAN, NBC NEWS CORRESPONDENT: Well, I think he is looking ahead,

Chris. I think that he knows that this isn't going to necessarily be the best

night for him. As you've been saying all night long, he thinks if he can get

close to Hillary Clinton, that is in some ways a victory, although he says he's

certainly not happy about the fact that he is not going to get any more than 50

percent or they might not get any more than 50 percent.

So I think you're focusing a lot of their attention here because they

know this is still very tight. He feels very comfortable with North Carolina.


It is not that he's not going to go down there and campaign pretty hard, but

this could be the next battleground state and because it is so similar in so

many ways, to Pennsylvania, in terms of the age of the voters for example, the

number of blue collar voters here as well, he knows that whatever showing he

does in Pennsylvania is going to give him a pretty good hint of how he may do

here. He's not taking anything for granted.

MATTHEWS: Why would he make a statement like Indiana will be decisive?

Politicians never do that. Why would he say this is the water loop for either

candidate?

COWAN: The phrase he uses is tiebreaker. I think he thinks this could

be coming out of Pennsylvania, if he does well here, he thinks it could be all

over. He thinks that he could prove that he has done well in some of the


states and if he does as - as Chuck said, make inroads in some of those

constituents that particularly do well or usually go for Hillary Clinton, that

would be a victory for him. But, again, I don't think he said this will

necessarily be the end all be all, but it will be to some extent be a

tiebreaker.

MATTHEWS: OK thank you, Lee Cowan, who's with the Barack campaign.

OLBERMANN: Now, let's get some of those early numbers as promised from

the early exit polling, the first batch. We can smell it from here, the

cookies are cooking out of the bakery and that's the last time I use that

analogy, Norah O'Donnell.

N. O'DONNELL: Well, in our NBC News exit poll gives us an early look

at the importance of candidates personal qualities in the Pennsylvania


Democratic primary. Of course we asked voters to choose which quality was

important to them. We are seeing that in this primary, it is change that gets

the most votes, 49 percent. And that has been the hallmark of the Obama

campaign.

In fact, one in four were most concerned about the candidates'

experience, just 14 percent, cares about me. There it is that 8 percent, less

than one in 10 think that electability is important. And that has been the

pattern in previous races.

Obama's voters are the ones most looking for change. An overwhelming

73 percent say the ability to bring about needed change is just what they are

looking for. Far fewer mentioned anything else, 14 percent wanted a candidate

who cares about people like them, 8 percent are concerned about electability


and just 3 percent say it is experience that counts.

Now what about Clinton voters? Well, it is very different. Experience

is the quality they most value. Nearly half of Clinton voters say experience

is what they value most; 27 percent want a candidate that brings about change,

14 percent, someone who cares about them and just 9 percent say the key for

them is electability.

Again, that's among those Clinton voters. However when it comes to

just who they believe will be the Democratic nominee, more voters in the

Democratic primary feel it will be Barack Obama. But we should note in this

state, it is just a small majority. That is actually much smaller than we have

seen in those recent national polls.

And Chris and Keith, this is something I thought was so interesting.


It appears that about one in five Clinton voters in the state now feel that

Obama will be the nominee. That's among Clinton voters. Back to you guys.

OLBERMANN: All sorts of tea leaves to read. Thank you, Norah.

Here is another one. Let me ask you about this. If it's an hour and

45 minutes or so before the polls close and one camp is already putting out e-

mails about how much money the other camp spent and how much exposure their

commercials got than their own candidates, is that an attempt to lower

expectations on the half, since that's Senator Clinton's camp doing those e-

mails?

MATTHEWS: Yes, they are trying to say that if they don't do well it is

because they were outspent. I think you knew that would be my answer, Keith.

OLBERMANN: I'm trying to help.


MATTHEWS: No. Clearly you don't put out excuses if you are going to

win or if you're going to meet expectations. But again, I really think the way

this is going to be played and as you know, never before in a political contest

has been so much focus put on the spread because this contest is essentially

over.

Barack Obama is going to win the most elected delegates. What is at

stake is the chance to go to appeals court. There is nothing like it in sports

where you appeal the whole regular season and say nothing counts now, I am

going to blow you away.

OLBERMANN: No. You go to the NCAA and get your college season

overturned by recruiting and such.

MATTHEWS: I think you also have surprises in the playoffs. But I


really do think it is a strange time because we are all watching to see who

won.

But as Norah pointed out, four out of five or so of the Hillary voters

today believe that she is still in the running, that this is still up in the

air. I think this was probably a mistake at the media.

I think in the effort of the media, trying to keep the game going, we

have created the delusion that somehow this race is still open. I don't think

it is open. I think if you look at the numbers, Barack has to really blow it

in the weeks ahead to lose this thing.

OLBERMANN: And you also have to have a definitional change. If you

count Florida, if you count Michigan, if you base it purely on popular votes.

MATTHEWS: If you ignore the rules of the Democratic Party.


OLBERMANN: Exactly, we go back and declare.

MATTHEWS: But if you work hard and play by the rules, the Clinton

maxim, then this election process is moving forward. Barack Obama is moving

towards the nomination.

OLBERMANN: Work very hard and change the rules. We will continue our

race to the white house panel. You will hear from both camps.

MATTHEWS: Modification.

OLBERMANN: About how they are feeling tonight. And in fairness, the

Obama camp is also tamping down expectations as you've already seen. It may be

who is being most conservative in their predictions tonight as we wait for

polls closing in Pennsylvania. You're watching MSNBC's coverage of the

Pennsylvania primary.


(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

OLBERMANN: We rejoin you with MSNBC's continuing coverage of the

Pennsylvania Democratic primary. Polls closing in Pennsylvania at 8:00

Eastern, about an hour and 39 minutes from now.

MATTHEWS: And now we want to introduce our panel for tonight. NBC's

David Gregory, the "Washington Post's" Eugene Robinson who is also an MSNBC

political analyst. An MSNBC political analysts as well, Pat Buchanan. And

Rachel Maddow of "Air America" radio, who is also an MSNBC political analyst.

David, take over.

DAVID GREGORY, MSNBC NEWS ANCHOR: All right guys, thank you very

much. As we do every night on RACE FOR THE WHITE HOUSE, welcome everybody. We

talk about the big headline of the day. We know what the headline is today.


It's all about Pennsylvania. Patrick, what matters about Pennsylvania in this

race?

PAT BUCHANAN, MSNBC POLITICAL ANALYST: Hillary has to win Pennsylvania

even to keep going. If she wins Pennsylvania, the big question is why can't

Barack Obama close the sale? He lost Ohio, lost Texas. He lost Pennsylvania.

Even though he has got more endorsements, even though he's got more money, even

though he ran more ads, what is the matter with Obama?

GREGORY: But if he gets close, Pat, if he gets close, he will have

closed a huge gap in this race.

BUCHANAN: Well, congratulations. You've got to start winning these

battles, though. I mean otherwise people ask questions. If McCain were losing

Pennsylvania now to Huckabee, people would be wondering, what's wrong with


McCain?

GREGORY: Rachel, your headline about today.

RACHEL MADDOW, AIR AMERICA HOST: Hillary Clinton said last night that

in the unlikely event she loses Pennsylvania, she will stay in the race in

order to see Florida and Michigan seated and taken care of. She will stay even

if she loses. Well on an interview that's due to air on my "Air America" radio

show today, Howard Dean says that Florida and Michigan will be settled by

June. So that means even in the worst-case scenario in terms of the Democratic

race not ending, even if Hillary Clinton stays in after losing Pennsylvania,

that Florida and Michigan issue will be settled by June, according to Howard

Dean.

GREGORY: But the issue here is only an electoral vote issue. Can she


close the gap when it comes to the popular vote, not the electoral vote? She

needs Florida and Michigan to do that. But she would still have to get a very

big victory tonight to even make those reasonable, to make them relevant.

MADDOW: And the popular vote is not within the rules of the Democratic

Party in terms of how they pick their nominee.

BUCHANAN: Puerto Rico looms large.

GREGORY: Gene Robinson, your headline, what matters about today?

EUGENE ROBINSON, WASHINGTON POST: What matters is that the process

continues with Barack Obama still in the lead. And I think it's the over/under

Chuck Todd said seven points, seven-point victory for Hillary Clinton is good.

Anything less than that is not so good for her. It is good for Obama.

Seven points might be the number. Eight points might be the number.


Who knows exactly what it is? But we will be looking at the margin. We don't

expect an Obama victory. If that were to happen or if it were within a couple

of points, I think that we would end the night saying he had actually won.

BUCHANAN: We go on unless Hillary loses.

GREGORY: In a few seconds, though Pat, what do you look for tonight

that tells you something about how the race goes from here?

BUCHANAN: I think what you look at is, frankly, Pennsylvania, did

Barack really make inroads or was he hurt by the Reverend Wright? Was he hurt

by the bitter comment, the bigotry.

GREGORY: Does he have room to run in a state like Indiana where that

working class vote is very important?

BUCHANAN: If he loses Pennsylvania bad, he is in trouble in Indiana


because it's bibles and guns.

ROBINSON: But look at the new voters. Look at the 300,000 new voters

in Pennsylvania. Who are they and where do they go. Good for Obama, bad for

Republicans.

GREGORY: A lot - a lot more to come throughout the rest of the

night. Gentlemen, back to you.

OLBERMANN: Such a flashback. I'm back in sports again. It's over,

unders and point spreads. Thank you, David.

When we return, two former members of Congress, a battle as it unfolds

this evening. Joe Scarborough and Harold Ford, they are "The Insiders." This

is MSNBC's coverage of the Pennsylvania primary. He's Mr. Outside, I'm Mr.

Inside or something like that.


(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

MATTHEWS: Welcome back to MSNBC's coverage of the Pennsylvania

primary. We go now to a new feature of the program, "The Insiders." Two former

members of the United States Congress, the host of MSNBC'S MORNING JOE, the

aforementioned Joe Scarborough. In Miami, MSNBC political analyst, former and

longtime U.S. congressman, Harold Ford Jr. They are the insiders. That's how

we'll call them.

The question both to you right now, why did Hillary Clinton's campaign

go so tough with this ad on the eve of this primary that raised the question

who can be president for another World War II? Another Cuban missile crisis?

Another Berlin Wall? Another bin Laden attack on the United States? Joe, you

first.


JOE SCARBOROUGH, MSNBC ANCHOR: Well, it is because she's behind. It's

very simple. When you campaign and you are behind, nothing else is working,

you go negative. You go tough. You have to draw a contrast.

Campaigns are all about contrast if you are ahead, obviously, the

contrast is working for you. If you are behind, it is not. So you have to go

negative. If you are in Barack Obama's position, if you are ahead, if you are

ahead in delegates, if you're ahead overall in the popular vote, well you stay

away from negative attacks and you take the high road and you say I'm far above

this. Of course, and you stay above it until you fall behind.

MATTHEWS: You know, congressman ford, I don't think of either of these

people in the context of Winston Churchill. I wonder whether they are setting

the bar too high for either of them to reach.


HAROLD FORD JR., FORMER CONGRESSMAN: Well I think two things. One,

they are still in the primary. As Joe knows when you find yourself at this

point in the game, you are trying your hardest not to damage your chances for

the fall, not give your opponent on the other side too much to use against

you.

But at the same time, you have got to differentiate yourself a little

bit from the Democrat or the Republican. In this case the Democrat you are

running against. I happen to think that Hillary Clinton's ad in a lot of ways

is looking ahead. She probably feels she is going to win tonight. I'm not

sure if she will win by the numbers that the pundits and others believe she has

to in order to sustain herself.

She is looking out of Indiana. The narrative in this campaign for her


has always been experience and electability, that she is ready on day one. So

she is trying her hardest with the ad, I would imagine, to hammer and reinforce

that point as much as she possibly can in the final hours of the Pennsylvania

race.

With only two weeks separating her and Barack from North Carolina and

Indiana, trying her hardest to do it there as well. Remember, North Carolina

has a big military and veterans population. As does Indiana. But certainly

North Carolina. So she is probably looking a little bit ahead. But first

things first, she has to do well tonight. I agree with Pat Buchanan. A big

win here is necessary to sustain this campaign.

MATTHEWS: Joe, suppose it is only a five-point spread for Hillary

tonight. If she only wins by five, how does she pump that up into looking like


double digits? If it's five, how does the other side, Barack, depress it down

to a loss for Hillary?

SCARBOROUGH: You know, the thing is with Hillary Clinton, in the end,

tonight is all about money. Forget the popular vote right now. Forget getting

Florida and Michigan in. The most important thing is that Barack Obama raises

41 million dollars last month. Hillary Clinton is in debt. She has to win by

double digits to be able to go on the Internet tomorrow and say, keep this

campaign alive. Your money is an investment that will pay you back.

If she wins by four, five percentage points, that's just not going to

be enough. It all comes down to money in the end. Unless Bill Clinton wants

to spend some of that 109 million dollars, this campaign is going to end

tonight if she doesn't win big.


MATTHEWS: Why not save your money and give it to the winner, if you're

a Clinton person? I don't see why you spend money, good money after bad at

this point? Would you, Harold?

FORD: If she does not do well tonight, she is not going to be able to

raise money. I agree wholeheartedly with Joe. I think, Chris, you said it

earlier - this campaign now, her numbers, the margin is all about how much she

is able to raise tomorrow and the following day and give her the opportunity.

I think the number I heard was a million dollars a day that's being spent in

the campaign.

The Clintons, as we all know, are not quitters. Part of their success,

if not a huge part of their success in politics, has been that they have

identified a goal. They have stayed with a narrative and they have figured out


a way to resonate and connect with voters time and time again. So I don't

expect her to quit.

However, if this is a three, four, five point race tonight, I think

they all know, including the president and Mrs. Clinton herself, that there's a

big, big challenge for them going forward. It will be hard for them to raise

the kind of money to keep this campaign running at a level that it has run at

over the last few weeks.

MATTHEWS: I think six or seven will still be hard. But thank you very

much, Joe Scarborough, Harold Ford. You will be back throughout the tonight.

Let's go back - up next, what Hillary Clinton must do to have a big night

tonight. That's the question. The numbers the question tonight, not winner or

loser but the question. We will be talking to Harold Wolfson of the Clinton


campaign. What's the number they need to reach tonight? You're watching

MSNBC's live coverage of the Pennsylvania primary.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

MATTHEWS: Welcome back to be MSNBC's live coverage of the Pennsylvania

primary. Hillary Clinton lags Barack Obama in the delegate count, the number

of states won and the popular votes so far. She has a tough road ahead to make

up the difference in all those categories. NBC's political director Chuck Todd

is back with us by the numbers. Chuck, it is a tough, uphill road for Senator

Clinton.

TODD: It is. This is the last big state left. Of the ten contests,

this is the biggest one. That's why you are not even hearing any talk anymore

about delegates out of the Clinton campaign. The one place they cannot make


progress on is on the delegate count. But where they can make progress on is

on the popular vote.

They are down about 700,000. They are hoping to make the last big push

to really make a dent in this thing. They hope to net 200,000 out of

Pennsylvania. How do they do that? Out of two million voters that could show

up today, they would have to win it by ten points. Anything more than that,

suddenly that - the amount of vote that they have netted goes over 200,000.

Keep track of that.

North Carolina, after this, they will probably lose votes. They are

going to lose ground in the popular in North Carolina. Indiana, her best case

is netting, as you see, 20,000 votes. West Virginia and then Kentucky later

on, she is likely to net a good chunk of vote out of there. But, really,


without the big victory in Pennsylvania, then there is no chance of her

catching up on the popular vote.

Let me go to the map here in Pennsylvania, and show you how she would

actually do this. If she did it, it means she would over-perform in the

Philadelphia suburbs down here, because this is where Obama is basically

looking at - look at what Ed Rendell did in the 2002 gubernatorial campaign

against Bob Casey. The two big surrogates for the two campaigns, they ran

against each other. Rendell got all of his votes out of the six counties

surrounding Philadelphia plus Philadelphia. That was really it.

If Obama somehow mirrored the Rendell strategy, which is what he was

trying to do, then he would win this primary. It is tough to do. How does

Clinton net vote? She would have to over-perform in the suburbs, not just win


everywhere over here, like we expect her to do, and the smaller mid-sized

areas, Erie, Harrisburg, Scranton, up here, where we expect her to rack up

votes, but also in the Philadelphia suburbs.

One area in particular, Chris, is these excerpts. Rendell did very

well in the new suburbs of Philadelphia, Lancaster County, for instance, which

not everybody would have said was a suburb of Philadelphia 30 years ago. He

won it. Can Obama stay competitive there? Or does Clinton rack up a big

number there and actually eat into - make the sort city of Philadelphia

Obama's base, rather than the Philadelphia media market.

OLBERMANN: Chuck, I have a question for you based entirely on what you

are talking about and what Governor Rendell said this afternoon. First,

prediction from any kind of principal or surrogate in this; he said, if the


turnout is even throughout the state, Clinton will win by six to ten. If the

turn out is heaviest in the Philly burbs, Clinton wins by four to six. Do you

like his methodology?

TODD: I do. It is funny, I was looking at the Rendell/Casey race, in

particular, to see what margin did Rendell get out of the city of

Philadelphia. He won the city of Philadelphia with 80 percent. If Obama gets

anywhere close to that, gets somewhere 65 percent, low 70s - don't forget,

Rendell won by over ten points in his primary. So if Obama gets, say, 68

percent, 70 percent out of Philadelphia, then that could be enough to make up

the ground that Clinton succeeds in all the other parts of the state.

MATTHEWS: Thank you, Chuck. I think you are right about that. I

think he will get about 70 percent in the city. Howard Wolfson in the


communications director for the Clinton campaign. Howard, this is an

interesting fight because we put so much focus - everyone has their different

market about what the spread ought to be. I said eight last night. I'm going

to try to stay out of it tonight. Chuck said seven is a good mark to look at.

If it is in the tricky area tonight, is it a battle of spin? Say it's

six points, your candidate wins, Senator Clinton wins by six tonight, is it

going to be a battle between you and Axelrod as to who really won?

HOWARD WOLFSON, CLINTON CAMPAIGN COMMUNICATIONS DIRECTOR: Well, I

agree with Senator Obama, who today said that 50-plus one constitutes a

victory, that he didn't come to Pennsylvania to lose, that he didn't come to

get 45 percent, and that 50-plus one is a victory. That's what we're shooting

for.


Look, Senator Obama spent more money in the Pennsylvania primary than

in the history of Pennsylvania politics. He out-spent us three to one. He ran

negative ads. He did pretty much everything he wanted to do in Pennsylvania,

in terms of communicating with voters. And if he can't beat us, outright beat

us, I think it will once again raise questions for the super delegates about

his ability to win in the large swing states that any Democrat needs to win to

pick up the victory against John McCain in November.

MATTHEWS: Didn't have you a special advantage? I think it is a very

successful campaign that Senator Clinton has ran in the state I grew up in.

The way that she was able to remind everybody that she spent her summers

growing up in Scranton, one of the older parts of the state, that her father

and brother played for Penn State, that she was able to move around among the


working people of Pennsylvania with great comfort, as a local girl. Somebody

said to me that she was walking around northeast Philly, where I did grow up as

a teenager, and seemed like the local girl, as they put it, one of the local

pols put it that way.

She does have that advantage, doesn't she, in Pennsylvania tonight?

WOLFSON: Well, I don't think that her ability to connect with working

people or blue collar voters is a special advantage. And I think that super

delegates, again, looking at this, are going to say do we want a nominee who

can pick up those Reagan Democrats, who can relate to blue collar voters, who

is consistently running ahead with that group, or do we want somebody who has

consistently had a hard time winning over blue collar voters?

We need those voters to beat John McCain in November. You know that.


OLBERMANN: I think it is a strong argument. Let me ask you about a

trickier thing. What do you make of Senator Clinton's comments with regard to

Iran? Very militant language about what she would do as commander in chief in

the face of an attack by Ahmadinejad on the state of Israel or any state in

that region? What do you make of that very pronounced, declarative statement

that she would retaliate in force?

WOLFSON: I don't think that there should be any ambiguity in Tehran

about the United States' position if they were to take offensive action against

Israel. That's called creating a deterrence. And by making that very clearly

and explicitly, we hope that will deter Iran from making any offensive gestures

towards Israel.

Look, the first goal of the next president will be to try to ensure


that Iran does not acquire nuclear weapons. Senator Clinton has said that we

won't engage in diplomacy with Iran in order to do that. But if, for whatever

reason Iran, has already nuclear weapons, or if they developed them in the

first years of the next presidency, we have to make it very clear that the

United States is going to stand four-square behind Israel, in the hopes that

that will create a deterrent towards Iran, so they do not act.

MATTHEWS: OK, thank you very much, Harold Wolfson. Good luck

tonight. Thanks for being with us.

OLBERMANN: David Wilhelm, former chairman of the Democratic National

Committee, now supporting Barack Obama for president; he joins us now. Thank

you for your time tonight, sir.

DAVID WILHELM, FMR. DNC CHAIR: Thanks for having me.


OLBERMANN: Are there - were there marching orders for you surrogates

today? We just heard preliminary monetary figures from the Clinton camp. Is

there any percentage here, one way or the other, that the Obama camp can't call

a moral victory? Is there anything where somebody comes out and says, no, we

lost this one?

WILHELM: Yes, not that I know of, not that I have been briefed on. I

think the fair question is for the - for Senator Clinton, if not here, where?

Pennsylvania has the second oldest electorate in the entire country, just

lagging behind Florida. It has a higher proportion of blue collar voters than

most states. She's the favorite daughter of the state. She has the backing of

the very popular governor, the mayors of Pittsburgh and Philadelphia.

If not here, where? She needs a fundamental game changer. I will


throw one out, 25 percent. That's what Senator Obama won Virginia by. That's

the kind of game changer that she needs to get into play. I have heard

discussion on this show tonight about seven percent. Seven percent, Barack

Obama is leading this thing by 170 delegates. It is a solid lead.

So I think you have to look at this thing in totality. We have

tonight's results. In two weeks, we'll have North Carolina and Indiana. I

think together, combined, they will elect more delegates than Pennsylvania will

tonight. There will be western estates coming into play; Oregon, South Dakota,

Montana.

Barack Obama is going to do just fine over the next several weeks. He

is going to be the nominee of the party. And this notion that five, six, seven

points; she needs a game changer.


OLBERMANN: I don't mean to undercut you. This is kind of unfair. We

just got this quote. I will read the quote to you and then tell you who said

it. This was on XM satellite radio this afternoon in Philadelphia; "Let me cut

to the chase, the gentleman said, a win is 50-plus. If Senator Clinton gets

over 50 percent, she won the state and I don't try to pretend that I enjoy

getting only 45 percent and that's a moral victory. You have lost the state."

That was with an interview from XM Satellite radio with Senator Obama.

Does that change expectations for tonight?

WILHELM: I guess I just got my talking points. Look, I like that

attitude. That's a winner's attitude. And we are fighting for every last vote

in the state of Pennsylvania, and we are fighting for every last vote around

the country. It is that kind of attitude that led to victories in 30 states.


But I think that, you know, to be an analyst for a second, not somebody

running to be the next president of the United States - and there's a

difference between leadership and analysis - I think that it is very fair to

say, if not here, where? And I - I think a game changer is needed. In the

absence of a game changer, let's look at the facts. Senator Clinton right now

is behind by ten percentage points nationally. She is out of money. Her

negatives are going up, up, up, up.

This is - regardless of the outcome tonight, at least at a national

level, this has not been a friendly two weeks for Senator Clinton. So I'm fine

with Senator Obama, where he is tonight. I'm fine with the statement that he

made. And let's, you know, continue this process until rationality and rank

and file Democrats say, you know, enough is enough; we have our nominee. Let's


get about the business of a general election.

OLBERMANN: There is the last question to you, Mr. Wilhelm. What is

that point and is that point reaching? Are we nearing that from - Obama camp

has been very reticent to say - Senator Obama has said no,, she has the

perfect right to stay in here and compete for seemingly indefinitely. Is there

a number tonight at which your organization says, you know, Senator Clinton, it

is time to go home?

WILHELM: Well, I don't think there is a number per se. But, you know,

there are various points that we will reach over the course of the next month

or so. There will be a point tonight where people take a breath and say OK,

what was the meaning of this election tonight? There will be a point in two

weeks where people will say OK, where are we now? Because Senator Obama has


regained whatever delegates he may have lost tonight, two weeks from tonight.

People will say well, this thing is over.

And then there will be another point at the conclusion of the primary

process where there will be a very clear lead that Barack Obama has in terms of

pledged delegates. I just think that there is a natural evolution to this

thing. People will see with their own two eyes what the nature of these

various pivot points are in the race. And I think at the conclusion of this,

the only conclusion that can be reached is that Senator Obama will be the

nominee of the Democratic party.

OLBERMANN: Those moments of which you speak we plan to have at least

six hours more of them just this evening. David Wilhelm, former chairman of

the DNC, now with the Obama camp, thank you, sir.


WILHELM: Thank you.

OLBERMANN: As the Democrats fight for Pennsylvania, the presumptive

Republican nominee is campaigning today in Ohio and in Kentucky. Our Kelly

O'Donnell is with John McCain and joins us now from Paintsville, Kentucky.

Good evening.

KELLY O'DONNELL, NBC NEWS CORRESPONDENT: Good evening. You know, John

McCain has an awful lot riding on what happens tonight. Of course, he is not

in Pennsylvania. And we have been trying to get out of him for days now, the

reporters traveling with him, who is his favorite, Senator Obama, Senator

Clinton, who would he like to run against? And again and again, he says, I'm

neutral. I don't have a preference.

We have also pressed him on what's the impact of this long Democratic


race? He says he can argue it both ways, that it could help his campaign,

giving him more time to organize and work on his own campaign. And at the same

time, all the attention going to the Democrats.

So what's McCain doing? He is really on a parallel track. This week,

he is trying to go to places where typically a Republican presidential

candidate seldom goes, from Appalachia to parts of Alabama to blighted parts of

Ohio, trying to say that he will fight for every vote and acknowledging to us

again today that he knows with African American voters, he has a lot of work to

do.

OLBERMANN: Kelly O'Donnell with the McCain campaign in Paintsville,

Kentucky. Thank you, Kelly.

MATTHEWS: How does this prolonged Democratic fight, which continues at


least through midnight tonight, affect John McCain as the Republican nominee?

MSNBC's political analyst Michelle Bernard is with us. She is with Independent

Women's Voice. Michelle, is this long fight helping or hurting the Dems

against a fight they have to face in the fall against John McCain?

MICHELLE BERNARD, INDEPENDENT WOMEN'S VOICE: It is absolutely hurting

the Dems. I have to tell you, if you are John McCain tonight, you have to be

hoping that what has occurred in the Democratic party since March 4th, last

time we had a big primary, is just, you know, the first act of what will be a

very long, you know, two, three act play.

Since March 4th, on the Obama side of the campaign, we have had

Reverend Jeremiah Wright. We've had accusations that Barack Obama is elitist.

We have had Barack Obama's sort of misstatements about why voters are


frustrated and angry and cling to religion and guns, and are fearful of people

who are unlike them.

We have also seen Senator Clinton having, quote, unquote, misstatement

about being under sniper fire in Bosnia. While this is happening, what we have

seen with Senator Obama and Senator Clinton is that their negative ratings are

escalating, and recent polls are showing that John McCain's general election

poll numbers are going up when he is matched against Senator Obama or Senator

Clinton.

Just in February, when you did a match up between Obama and Senator

McCain, Obama was ahead of Senator McCain by ten points. Right now, they are

pretty much even. This is absolutely helping the Republican party and helping

Senator McCain.


MATTHEWS: OK, thank you very much, Michelle Bernard. Up next,

Philadelphia Mayor Michael Nutter is coming here to join us. He is a Hillary

Clinton supporter. We will check back with David Gregory and our panel. This

is MSNBC's continuing coverage of the big Pennsylvania primary.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

MATTHEWS: Welcome back. Polls in Pennsylvania will be closed in just

over an hour. Here we have Philadelphia Mayor Michael Nutter, a very

impressive fellow who has just been elected mayor in Philadelphia. He supports

Hillary Clinton for president.

Mr. Mayor, I have to start a fight. Bob Brady, chairman of the City

Committee, a U.S. Congressman and head of the Democratic party of Philadelphia,

says that if Barack Obama gets the most elected delegates at the end of the


season, he has to be the nominee, the party cannot deny him that honor. What

do you think?

MICHAEL NUTTER, PHILADELPHIA MAYOR: Well, I think we have to wait and

see what the contest, how it plays out. Whether it is delegates, popular vote,

where the super delegates are; there is a whole process for this. I know you

would like for Brady and I to be at odds, but I probably won't take the bait.

Let us have Pennsylvanians finish voting for the next hour or so, as

you mentioned. Let's go on to West Virginia and Indiana and North Carolina,

Oregon, on through Puerto Rico, and see where we are at that point in the

process.

MATTHEWS: OK, let's join in a kumbaya of good government. I am so

impressed, as you must be, at political excitement in the Philadelphia area.


NUTTER: Yes.

MATTHEWS: Tell me about it. You grow up in the city. I mean, 35,000

people at Independence Mall, 5,000 at Winwood. Both candidates last night for

Hillary.

NUTTER: Close to 10,000 people at the Palestra last night. It was

incredible. The house was rocking. I think that what it points to is the

passion that people have, certainly for each of the candidates. But it is

great for the party. We brought new people in. They have gotten registered to

vote. They are active. They are going to be ready for a fall election which

is certainly not going to be a stroll in the park.

We are going to have to be organized. We're going to have to be

vigorous, diligent and ready for action come fall. We will let this electoral


process play itself out. The city has shined throughout this, the city, the

suburbs and all of Pennsylvania. And I think Pennsylvanians have taken this

limelight moment very well and they are going do very well tonight.

MATTHEWS: How do you keep the - I talked to a lot of county chairs.

You talk to them all the time about the need to keep the Democratic party

united. You have 300,000 new Democrats in the state of Pennsylvania in the

last few months. How do you make sure that what comes out of this process

keeps them all engaged for November?

NUTTER: I think the main thing is making sure we stay in touch with

people, have a variety of other activities and party builders, unity building

events and activities all throughout the various Democratic organizations, all

across Pennsylvania. And I think leaders are now starting to talk about that.


We have to have a game plan. We have keep this block of voters and all of our

voters energized for the fall. I'm looking forward to that activity.

MATTHEWS: Thank you very much, Mayor Michael Nutter of Philadelphia.

OLBERMANN: Polls are going to close in Pennsylvania in one hour and

what - two minutes and change. When we - yes. One hour, two minutes. When

we return, we will talk to Hillary Clinton's biggest supporter in the state,

Governor Ed Rendell. More correctly, Chris will talk to Governor Rendell. Tim

Russert will be here at the top of the hour. We will assess where we are, and

try to figure out if one candidate says a win is a win and the other one says a

win is 50 plus one, why we are talking about percentages. Our coverage -

MSNBC's continuing coverage of the Pennsylvania Democratic primary continues

after this.


CHRIS MATTHEWS, MSNBC ANCHOR: Welcome back to MSNBC's continuing

coverage of the Democratic primary up in Pennsylvania. I'm Chris Matthews at

NBC News world headquarters in New York, alongside Keith Olbermann.

Polls close in Pennsylvania in one hour, at 8:00 Eastern. And, this

hour, we are going to hear from Pennsylvania Governor Ed Rendell.

But, before we do, we are going to have new numbers from our exit

polling.

And, for that, we go to Norah O'Donnell - Norah.

NORAH O'DONNELL, NBC CHIEF WASHINGTON CORRESPONDENT: All right, Chris

and Keith.

You know, in the final days of this fight for Pennsylvania, we saw the

candidates level some of their harshest criticism. Barack Obama painted his


rival as a compromised Washington insider, while Clinton charged that Obama's

new tactics showed he was just another old-style politician.

She also unveiled those ads, calling into question his readiness to

deal with threats like Osama bin Laden. So, the big question, how did all of

these negative attacks play in Pennsylvania? Well, our exit poll shows that

most Democratic voters think Hillary Clinton went too far. In fact, two-thirds

say she attacked unfairly.

Only 49 percent said that about Obama. This is the highest we have

seen these negative numbers since South Carolina, when the issue of race first

became a flash point. And when you look at the breakdown by race and gender -

there we go - 77 percent of black voters take Hillary Clinton to task for

attacking her opponent unfairly. Well, only half as many, 37 percent, feel the


same way about Barack Obama.

White women voters don't give either candidate a pass. Sixty-four

percent think Clinton crossed the line. Over half think Obama went too far.

And how did six full weeks of ads aimed at Pennsylvania voters affect

their decisions? Well, our exit polls find just over half saying that the ads

were very or somewhat important to their vote. That's really interesting.

These campaign ads matter. And, remember, Barack Obama spent an enormous

amount of money on television. We are talking about $10 million, maybe more,

essentially outspending Hillary Clinton 3-1 in this run-up to the primary -

Chris and Keith.

MATTHEWS: Thank you, Norah.

KEITH OLBERMANN, MSNBC ANCHOR: All right, let's check back in with NBC


News Washington bureau chief, moderator of "Meet the Press," Tim Russert.

Tim, all right. Tim is not back with us yet.

So, Chris, you and I are going to have to talk about this.

Those exit polls, what does it profit a candidate if they win

Pennsylvania, but - but lose the earth? Is there so much of an impact, or do

people forget the negativity were Hillary Clinton to become the Democratic

nominee?

MATTHEWS: I have to tell you, I was talking to Democrats across the

state in the last week or so. And they are worried. They are afraid that

these young kids who have joined the process and are gung-ho are going to be

turned off by the process right after this primary by - will they feel it has

been stolen from them, because they don't think the person who got the most


delegates wins, or they just don't like all the dirtiness of it?

But, clearly, John McCain is moving into Pennsylvania. There's no

doubt in my mind that the smart people around him, Tom Ridge, the former

governor, Charlie Black, all the others, are saying, Pennsylvania is the one we

can take away from the Democrats and destroy their chances, because the one

thing we all know in this business, Pennsylvania must go Democrat for the

Democrats to win.

OLBERMANN: And the McCain people obviously inherit whatever dirty

laundry has been spread by both candidates.

MATTHEWS: Yes.

OLBERMANN: All right, Tim Russert is now with us. I was a little

ahead of ourselves here.


Tim, those exit polls and - and some of the other numbers that we have

seen about new voters and voters looking for change, we have seen these sitting

in there and still disconnecting with the outcomes of the race.

How do you interpret what we have seen so far from the exits?

TIM RUSSERT, NBC WASHINGTON BUREAU CHIEF: Exactly right. Whenever you

hear a new voter or a converted voter from Republican rolls, Democrats rolls,

they seem to overwhelmingly support Barack Obama.


But he still is having difficulty cracking in to some of that hard-core

traditional blue-collar Democratic base. He will say, Keith, that what that

means is, all those traditional Democrats will come back in the fall, and that

he can open up states like Colorado and Virginia and areas that had not been


available.

Picking up in your conversation with Chris, McCain, on the other hand,

sees a pincer movement, not only Pennsylvania and Ohio, but Michigan, too.

They really believe that they can put Pennsylvania and Michigan in play, along

with Ohio, and cause the Democrats great, great grief come this fall, because

those traditional blue-collar voters will not come back to the Democratic

fold. That's McCain's calculation.

OLBERMANN: All right. Let's take it back to tonight.

And, so far, all the predictions, other than Ed Rendell's, seem to be

about how one side or the other does not expect to win by very much.

(LAUGHTER)

OLBERMANN: This is - talk about diminished expectations. They're


diminishing as we - as we speak.

Senator Clinton said, a win is a win. Senator Obama said, a win is 50,

plus one. I don't pretend that I enjoy only getting 45 percent.

And then his own campaign guru, David Axelrod, came back and said, I

have to disagree with Senator Obama. We're - by the end of this, it's going

to be a nothing-nothing score.

(LAUGHTER)

RUSSERT: Jack Murtha, don't forget, said double digits for Clinton.

He's been consistent.

(LAUGHTER)

RUSSERT: But - but I think you are on to something.

I think what Senator Obama was trying to do was suggest to everybody,


listen, I'm going to be gracious here. I'm going to be magnanimous.

I don't know want Senator Clinton tomorrow, if she wins by a few

points, to be able to say, we denied her a victory, that we weren't going to

count this state as a win because she didn't win by enough. How unfair is

that? And is it because, you know, the old boys' network is at it again?

I just think he wants to take the card away if, in fact, it would be

played tomorrow.

OLBERMANN: So, this is Obama holding the door open and saying, no,

after you, Senator Clinton, and she is staying outside, saying, I will open the

damn door myself?

RUSSERT: I had a very close supporter of Hillary Clinton say to me

that the key now is how these two treat one another in terms of whether this


party is going to come together, to a point where, if things didn't work out

tonight for Hillary Clinton, what kind of way would Barack Obama comport

himself?

And then how would they start dealing with both Hillary and Bill

Clinton, and in terms of the fund-raising difficulties or a potential debt,

working together on that? I mean, they are thinking this through in their

minds. And I think both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama have several

different strategies at play.

If she blows it out and wins big, it is full speed ahead.

Superdelegates, understand, I am the tough one. I can beat McCain.

If it is close, she has to make some big decisions. And part of that,

I think, will be how she's treated by Barack Obama.


OLBERMANN: But how does Senator Clinton comport herself, because this

is exactly the point? In case we are outside of that Tim Russert danger zone

of an eight-point victory, if it is less than that - we are now down to the

three- and four-point ranges - Donna Brazile said this morning, as the ex-

manager of Al Gore's campaign, as a superdelegate: There is a group around

Senator Clinton that really wants to take the fight to the convention. They

don't care about the party. It scares me, and that's what scares a lot of

superdelegates.

Is she speaking for herself, or is there, in fact, a group there that

is waiting to see how Senator Clinton comports herself?

RUSSERT: Oh, there are a group of superdelegates who are watching this

very, very closely.


I had one political pro tell me that he thinks that 40 or 50

superdelegates could move quickly, undecided superdelegates, if this in fact

was a close race tonight, to try to solidify behind Obama.

Also, Keith, while there is a hard core around Senator Clinton that

wants to keep fighting, because they have been in there and fighting very, very

hard for a year-and-a-half, there are others, particularly people raising

money, who understand reality. And they know that they are tapped out with the

maximum givers, that, unless there's a big victory, it's going to be hard to

raise money from the Internet.

And, so, When you take away that life support, that wonderful song,

money makes the world go around, yes, indeed it does, particularly when you are

going on to Indiana and North Carolina, all the way until early June.


OLBERMANN: Yes, I really like the image of superdelegates moving

quickly, because, so far, they have been glacier-like, in any respect, in any

direction.

Tim Russert, we will check back in with you later. Many, many thanks.

RUSSERT: Thanks, Keith.

MATTHEWS: Pennsylvania Governor Ed Rendell is supporting Hillary

Clinton, as everyone knows, for president.

He joins us now from Philadelphia.

Governor Rendell, I wonder if the dance has not begun already, Barack

Obama being magnanimous, saying that, if Hillary Clinton wins by one vote

tonight, she is the winner. Is he setting up a rapprochement if Hillary

Clinton fails to meet that magic number tonight?


GOV. ED RENDELL (D), PENNSYLVANIA: I don't have a clue what Senator

Obama is thinking. I don't think it is going to be over tonight.

I think Senator Clinton is going to win a fairly significant victory.

And, again, it depends how you define it. I think Tim is in - far wrong,

eight points, seven points. Given the money differential that - that existed

in this state, if she wins by six, seven, eight points, that's a significant

victory in Pennsylvania.

If she wins by 10 points, that's an extraordinary victory. And I think

we just have to wait and see. I do disagree, though, with the premise. And,

you know, Chris, I have consistently disagreed with the premise that we are

going to have a tough time getting back together.

I think Pennsylvania Democrats, including most of the young voters,


including the women voters who say now that they are going to vote for Senator

McCain if Senator Obama is the nominee, I don't think that is going to happen.

And I think the leadership, people like Mayor Nutter and others, are going to

band together quickly, whoever the nominee is.

And whether it is in the beginning of June or the beginning of

September, we are going to band together. And I think you will see 97 percent,

98 percent of our voter base coming back. And, remember, our voter base now is

four million-plus...

MATTHEWS: Right.

RENDELL:... the biggest that any political party has had in the

history of the commonwealth. So, if we lost 3 percent or 4 percent, we still

have a gigantic lead over the Republicans. And I think we will carry this


state for either Senator Obama or Senator Clinton in the fall.

Senator Clinton would do much better, in my judgment. But I think we

will also carry it for Senator Obama.

MATTHEWS: Well, you have so many candidates that have turned blue.

You are right, Governor. You have the Elk, Centre, Clearfield, Clinton. You

have got the collar counties around Philadelphia, Bucks and Montgomery, are

definitely Democrat now. You have got the Republicans losing their majority in

Delaware and Chester. All that is true.

But then I had Bob Brady on television yesterday say, in Philadelphia,

that if the candidate who gets the most elected delegates does not get the

nomination, there's going to be trouble.

RENDELL: It depends. I - I would differ with Mike Nutter, my good


friend. And I would say Bob Brady is wrong. It depends on a number of

factors, for example, who wins the popular vote. And the popular vote, I

think, has to include the Florida vote. In all basic fairness, the rules were

equal. Everybody's name was on the ballot. And it was a rout. And it has to

include the Florida vote.

So, I think, if one candidate has the popular vote, the other has more

delegates, which is more compelling? I could make the argument that the

popular vote is a clearer indication of democracy than this screwed-up system

of awarding delegates we have where some areas, the vote counts more for a

delegate than other areas. It makes no sense at all, the system.

MATTHEWS: But didn't Hillary Clinton win in Florida just on the -

everyone knew this ahead of time, and it was written about by the columnists,


that, with her name I.D. and the reputation she enjoys from first lady -

serving all these years as sort of the first lady of the country and,

politically, the first lady of the Democratic Party, that she had an advantage,

without campaigning, that the other candidates didn't have down in Florida?

(CROSSTALK)

RENDELL: You know who doesn't believe that, Chris?

MATTHEWS: Who?

RENDELL: The Senator Obama campaign, because we wanted to revote in

Florida and Michigan, and they wouldn't let us.

If they believed that that was an unfair representation of Florida's

vote, then let's vote again. We had the opportunity to vote again. And the

Obama forces - and, by the way, if Hillary Clinton had done this, you all


would have been screaming bloody murder. The Obama forces did - moved in and

stopped revotes in Michigan and Florida. You tell me why.

MATTHEWS: You are arguing with me, Governor.

RENDELL: You tell me why, Chris.

(LAUGHTER)

MATTHEWS: Well, I don't know. I think you make a good point, that, if

the Clinton campaign wanted the revote in Florida and the Barack vote -

people didn't want a vote in Florida again, and they were given enough time to

campaign, and a decent campaign period, I guess you could argue that they were

afraid of getting wiped out down there...

(CROSSTALK)

RENDELL: By more than 300, because the turnout probably would have


been more than 1.8 million. And we have set these primaries in the middle of

June.

MATTHEWS: Yes.

RENDELL: There would have been plenty of time for Senator Obama to go

in and work his magic.

MATTHEWS: Well, let me ask about the 300,000 new Democrats in

Pennsylvania.

Most people believe - I mean, you can't be sure of this - that these

are young people and party-switchers that really wanted to vote for Barack

Obama. How do you keep them in the fold if you go with Hillary Clinton in

November?

RENDELL: Well, first of all, let me correct you. A high percentage of


these people are women. And a lot of them were Republican women coming over to

vote for Hillary Clinton.

If you asked me to break down the percentage, I would say it was 60

percent for Senator Obama, 40 percent for Senator Clinton. So, I don't think

it is as wide a disparity as everybody thinks.

MATTHEWS: You mean that most of the new voters came in to vote for

Hillary, not for Barack?

RENDELL: No, no. Sixty percent came in to vote for Barack...

MATTHEWS: OK.

RENDELL:... 40 percent for Hillary, in my judgment.

How do you keep them? Because, in the end, the choice is going to be

between four more years of George Bush - and John McCain sold his soul to the


right wing of his party, more war in Iraq, more Bush economic policies, no help

for mortgagees that are facing foreclosure, all of those things.

I think, in the end, most of our voters, they may be disappointed if

Senator Obama is not the candidate - women may be disappointed if it is not

Senator Clinton, but most voters will look at Election Day and say, I can't sit

by and let this country go through four more years like the last eight. And

they will come out and vote.

They may not come out and vote as enthusiastically or as passionately

as they would have for their candidate, but they will come out and vote.

And, plus, the fact you will have people coalescing. For whatever

worth I am or Mayor Nutter is, if it is Barack Obama, we are going to be out

there pushing just as hard as we pushed for Hillary Clinton.


MATTHEWS: We will see that all in November. That sounds like the

battle cry for the Democrats in Pennsylvania in November.

Governor Rendell, thanks for joining us.

RENDELL: Thanks, guys.

OLBERMANN: For more on the lay of the land in the Keystone State, we

turn to NBC News and MSNBC political director Chuck Todd, "By the Numbers."

I have one, actually, to give you as we start, Chuck.

(CROSSTALK)

OLBERMANN: We're getting our first reports of turnout, an estimate

from the Democratic Party in Pennsylvania that it was about 26 percent of

registered in 2004. They are expecting at least 52 percent tonight. That's

extraordinary.


CHUCK TODD, NBC NEWS POLITICAL DIRECTOR: It would absolutely be

extraordinary. And it would get us to that number. We have been talking a lot

about the popular vote, about, you know, if it is two million voters today,

first, it helps with the math, because we can easily divide two million very

quickly, 55-45, and get a 200,000 spread for Clinton.

But it would indicate also that this is going to be a long night, as

far as trying to figure out the exact delegate breakdown. And, by the way, we

are letting the delegate thing get lost here. Delegates do nominate. We have

been talking a lot about the popular vote.

But most of the delegates in Pennsylvania are coming out of

Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. Basically, half the delegates up of the 158 are

based on the Philadelphia media market vote, a quarter based on the Pittsburgh


vote, and then a quarter everywhere else in the T. or so-called, as James

Carville likes to call it, the Alabama part of Pennsylvania.

What's interesting here - I want to get inside the Philadelphia area

here a little bit, because this is where we are going to know if Obama can keep

the delegate split basically even. Of the 158, I mean, I think it is very

possible tonight, a narrow Clinton win would give 80 delegates, and Obama would

get 78. I think her number could get as high as 86 and his number probably

does not get any lower than 72.

So, those are the ranges we are working with. But almost - most -

about half of Obama's delegate take is going to be from here. And the question

is, you have got the 1st and 2nd Congressional Districts here, which are

Philadelphia. He could net eight to 10 delegates just out of those two


districts. And that was what Rendell was talking about, Governor Rendell,

talking about the lopsided nature of how Democrats award delegates.

These heavily districts, African-American districts, are given more

delegates. They're just weighted heavier. You could make an argument that,

basically, their vote counts for more than somebody's vote in Scranton or

somebody's vote in Erie.

And I'm sure that that's something that the Clinton campaign will be

talking about. But, then, the rest of these suburban congressional districts,

right, the 6th, the 7th, the 8th, two of those three were big pickups for the

Democrats. This is what Chris has been talking about, about how the Republican

suburbs are no longer Republican anymore. They are becoming Democratic

suburbs.


Will Clinton be very competitive here? Will these split? These are

seven - there's a five - a 6th C.D., a Democratic delegate district here, a

couple of sevens. Will they split 4-3 for Obama or 4-3 for Clinton? And that

would be the difference between that 80-78 split I was showing you earlier and

the 86-72.

But the most important district I actually want to point out is a

fairly small one, something I pointed out earlier. And that's the 16th. I'm

pointing that one out because I think it will tell us whether Obama could

finally sort of reach in to these newer exurbs part of Philadelphia. This is

Lancaster and York. A lot of this area, in this part, this is where - did

Philadelphia get bigger?

You know, people talk about, how big will the Philadelphia vote mean?


The way I look at it, how big is Philadelphia geographically? Did the entire

market become an Obama stronghold? And that would mean also him doing well in

this 16th District. He doesn't have to necessarily win it. But does he get 40

percent in that district? If he is doing that, and piling up these large

numbers in Philadelphia, like we were saying, then, suddenly, there might be a

road map for victory.

If he is getting trounced here in a place that is starting to get a

little more competitive for the Democrats, but they all seem to be siding more

with Senator Clinton, then you know that there was a big divide, and then this

may be a good night for Clinton. So, that's the district I'm - I want to be

watching very closely, Lancaster County, York County, the 16th Congressional

District.


OLBERMANN: Those greater Philly districts, one man, 1.0006 votes

each.

Chuck Todd, great thanks. We will be back with you later on.

TODD: You got it.

OLBERMANN: Coming up: one of Barack Obama's top Pennsylvania

supporters, U.S. Congressperson Chaka Fattah, plus, more with our race to the

White House panel.

You are watching MSNBC's coverage of the Pennsylvania primary.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

OLBERMANN: We rejoin you with MSNBC's coverage of the primary in

Pennsylvania. Polls will close in about 39 minutes.

At the very least, Barack Obama is hoping to keep it close tonight.


U.S. Congressman Chaka Fattah represents Philadelphia and supports

Senator Obama in his candidacy.

Congressman, thanks for your time tonight.

REP. CHAKA FATTAH (D), PENNSYLVANIA: It's good to be with you and be

good with Chris again.

(LAUGHTER)

OLBERMANN: He is everywhere.

(LAUGHTER)

OLBERMANN: If all that matters, ultimately, here is delegates at the

end of this race, why are both campaigns tonight focusing so much on how much

Senator Clinton might win by? Why does that number matter, if this is all

about delegates?


FATTAH: Well, the nomination is about who wins the delegates. But

delegates are won in part by momentum.

And, so, obviously, Senator Clinton, who has run a great campaign in

Pennsylvania, wants to try to win the state to claim momentum, even if she is

behind in delegates, because it may help her down the road win actual

delegates. So, we all understand the game.

We are working hard. We wanted to get our share of the popular vote.

Senator Obama is very pleased with the response he got here in Pennsylvania.

And he - on his train trip, on his bus tour, out in Pittsburgh last night, in

Philadelphia on Friday, great response to the Obama campaign and message.

I was out with Senator Obama and Michelle. We visited a barbershop out

in west Philadelphia today and a day care center. He's just had a great time.


And, as he said, he wanted to win every vote that he deserved in the state and

win every delegate on possible, and then move on to the May 6 contest.

OLBERMANN: But, if he said, look, it's - obviously, the money is a

matter of public record, how much was spent and how much of a financial

advantage the campaign had over the Clinton campaign.

Momentum was largely to - to - to his benefit going into this six

weeks ago. He has - as you said, you know, has described a win as 50, plus

one; I'm not going to be happy with some sort of moral victory at 45 percent of

the vote.

Don't those things, in the devil's-advocate point of vie, say, if you

can't win Pennsylvania, why not? Is that not big question, if he - if he is

not the - the 50, plus one, winner tonight?


FATTAH: Well, the Obama campaign believes that every state is

important. And he has won twice as many as Senator Clinton.


But Pennsylvania is important. And that's why he competed hard here.

The reality is, is that he came in here after Senator Clinton won Ohio and

Texas. She was up 26, almost 30 points 30 days ago. And when you start out

with a new brand, fighting somebody who has already been around, you know, if

you take on Keith Olbermann or HARDBALL with a new show somewhere, you are

going to have to advertise more, because you already have a share of the

market.

So, Obama had to work hard. You had 100 mayors in the state for

Senator Clinton. You had the governor and the mayors of Philadelphia and


Pittsburgh. You know, it was a tough sell. But he worked hard. And I think

we are going to be pleased with the results tonight, because I think that

you're going to see a result in which, whether the numbers add up or not, I

think he's going to have - did very well in terms of delegates, and have a

respectable showing in terms of the popular vote.

MATTHEWS: Congressman, I think there's a couple of ways that your

campaign could have been a lot tougher. I have been hearing from politicians

in the last 24 hours that they like that cutting ad that the SEIU ran for you

guys, the service employees, that showed Barack Obama taking on the special

interests, especially the oil company, a real cutting, tough ad.

Do you think your campaign should have had more of that sort of

populist strength to it, not this nice guy, Barack Obama is this sweet guy,


vote for him, he is going to bring us together? Do you think it should have

had a little more edge to it?

FATTAH: Well, look, I think that you can always look back at a

campaign.

And - but the reality is, is that the Obama team wanted to have a

respectful campaign that allows us to still unite the party down the road. And

we don't want to be in an attack mode all the time.

But we will have to, as we go forward, make sure that we can win where

winning is possible. Pennsylvania may not have been impossible. We don't

know. We are very pleased with some of the things we have seen out of the exit

polls. He did extraordinarily well with urban voters, with new voters.

He sees that cut in, in significant ways with - with a number of


groups of people that may not have been in his corner before. We will have to

see tonight how it ends up. And we will do an after-action review of it. And

we will take those lessons on to Indiana and North Carolina.

OLBERMANN: And we will do the same here, at least the - the after-

hours action report.

Chaka Fattah, the congressman, representing Senator Obama, thank you

for your time tonight, sir.

FATTAH: I'm not surprised that Chris is arguing for hardball tactics.

(LAUGHTER)

FATTAH: Thanks a lot, Keith.

(LAUGHTER)

OLBERMANN: As ever.


Up next: more from our exit polling, plus David Gregory and our race to

the White House panel will rejoin us.

This is MSNBC's coverage of the Pennsylvania primary.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

MATTHEWS: Welcome back to MSNBC's continuing coverage of the

Pennsylvania primary.

Right now, the polls are closed in Pennsylvania. It's 8:00.

And, right now, we want to check back with our race to the White House

panel, led by David Gregory - David.

DAVID GREGORY, NBC CORRESPONDENT: Chris, thanks very much.

One of the reasons that I am so excited tonight is I think, for the

first time, panel, we really have the ability to test the central arguments and


prepositions in this campaign - propositions in this campaign.

We have not had a vote in six weeks. We - this has been the longest

campaign within the campaign. And now we are really going to learn something,

after such a momentous time during the campaign, and a difficult time for

Barack Obama. Pat, for Hillary Clinton, the issue here is whether she's been

able to come out Pennsylvania and prove that Barack Obama is unviable as

candidate. Can she do that with anything other than a stunning double digit

victory?

BUCHANAN: I think she has to get a double digit victory to prove

Barack Obama really is going to be a problematic candidate in the general

election. But it's going to be irrelevant and will keep marching until the

nomination or something turns it around. What he came in to prove, he was


determined to take her out, I think. He threw all the ads in and got the

endorsement, he worked hard all through it. When he says, you know, I need 50-

plus one to win, it looks like he did not do it and so we move forward. But

the inexorability of this race has not changed. Or does not appear to be

changed.

ROBINSON: Yes. I think you could also make the argument that Obama

had to pour a lot of money and resources into Pennsylvania precisely to avoid a

double-digit loss that would paint him as unviable. In other words, he had to

get it close, he to get it closer than the early polls looked which had, you

know, 20-point gap between the two. He couldn't stand...

GREGORY: But that may be for people who are watching this day in and

day out. Rachel, here is the front runner in this campaign. We have had weeks


of people saying that she ought to get out of the race. He spent time and he

spent money and let people see the Obama charm up close and yet, he's not

converting enough voters and acting like a real front-runner should to win one

of the big states. Why does an argument like that from Hillary Clinton

effectively break one of the central arguments of his campaign?

MADDOW: I don't think it breaks it because of the larger context.

Michael Dukakis did great in Pennsylvania in 1988 and it didn't help him much

in the general election. That remains the case. Also, the big picture here is

the same. Six week ago, Hillary Clinton was definitely going to win

Pennsylvania. The question was by how much. Today Hillary Clinton's

definitely going to win Pennsylvania. The question is by how much. At least

that's how it seems. The only difference is she is in debt and he is sitting


on $40 million. What's the proactive case for Hillary Clinton getting the

nomination? What's the case for Hillary Clinton?

GREGORY: The other thing she has done with the ads is to raise the

question mark over his head and to say you cannot trust him and it is the same

argument that the former president made, that you can't trust him when times

are tough. If she wins narrowly, how does she win the argument?

BUCHANAN: Well, you know, I - I don't know she does win that

argument. The other one you made is very important for the general public, not

for us. If they look at the headlines, say Hillary beats Obama in

Pennsylvania, they say why can this guy take her out? Everybody tells me he is

the front runner. Everybody says she should get out. She whips him in Ohio,

she whips him in Texas, she whips him in Pennsylvania. What's the matter with


this guy n.

MADDOW: She starts off six week ago with 16-point lead and he has six

weeks...

BUCHANAN: But the paper said she lost another big one.

MADDOW: Well, sure. Pennsylvania is all but subtitled Clinton

country. Chuck Todd has been making the case that this is demographically

exactly designed for a Hillary Clinton victory. If she wins that's a dog

bite's man story. It is not a game changer and still is sitting on $40

million. She is in debt. What happens next?

GREGORY: Gene, comment here and I want to make one other observation.

ROBINSON: Just step back from the race for a minute. Number one, it

is a miracle either candidate standing after the last six weeks. After


Reverend Wright after Bittergate and Bosnia and sniper fire.

MADDOW: It gets worse. I'm sure.

ROBINSON: They both took damage. What you have here are two very

good, very strong candidates. And in so they are going - they could be

fighting it out for a while.

GREGORY: One more observation based on what we are actually hearing on

this network tonight in our coverage. And that is the fact that Barack Obama

seems to be able to come out of this as a bit of a victim. Look at the exit

poll showing people think he was attacked unfairly. These are some of the

biggest missteps in his campaign, Reverend Wright and other things. He - wait

a minute. Coming out that way. He is also not engaging in percentage argument

saying a win is a win for her and as Tim Russert suggested he does not want to


be seen as taking a victory away. Is this how a real front-runner acts? He

rates for a moment to take her out of the race.

BUCHANAN: Fifty percent plus one is a gracious comment. It is a good

comment. It is - the idea of he is getting beat up, and stuff like that, the

country doesn't want a wimp. They don't want a wimp as president of the United

States. I will say when he comes out and says look, she won this thing fair

and square. I lost. We are not going to talk about numbers. Let's go to

Indiana. That will be the right way if he loses this thing by one vote.

ROBINSON: But on David's point, though, both their negatives have gone

up. Hers tend to go up higher than his.

MADDOW: Hers are 12 points higher than his right now.

ROBINSON: When she attacks him, her negatives go up.


BUCHANAN: Then why can't he beat her?

MADDOW: People may be voting. People may have a negative opinion

about her but they are still voting for her.

BUCHANAN: Why?

GREGORY: The debate will keep on going. And a lot more ahead. Back

to you.

MATTHEWS: Thank you, David. The polls of course still open in

Pennsylvania. For another 25 minutes. If you haven't voted, take the

opportunity to be a practicing member of our society. Up next, we will have

the latest and newest numbers from our exit polling. Plus NBC's Tom Brokaw

will be with us with his opening analysis of the night. You're watching

MSNBC's live coverage of the Pennsylvania primary.


(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

OLBERMANN: Just over 21 minutes until polls close in Pennsylvania.

Alongside Chris Matthews, I'm Keith Olbermann. And while we await the results

from Pennsylvania, we have new numbers from the exit polling and as usual for

that let's turn to Norah O'Donnell. Norah?

O'DONNELL: And good evening to you, Chris and Keith. A lot of people

are saying Pennsylvania of course is a tailor made state for Hillary Clinton.

In past primaries blue collar workers, those without college degrees and older

voters propelled her to victory. Remember in neighboring Ohio she won there by

ten points. So we decided to look at how similar the states are.

First up, those states are mostly white. What we are learning today,

80 percent of voters in Pennsylvania today are white. Seventy eight percent


are Ohio. Now 14 percent of Pennsylvanians are black. Compared with 18

percent in Ohio. Hispanic voters were just a small segment of the electorate.

Essentially like four percent. Education, majorities of Democratic voters in

both states do not have a college degree. Fifty-five percent there in

Pennsylvania. You can see. Even a higher number, 61 percent in Ohio did not

have college degrees. Another way of looking at the two states by household

incomes. In both a little over 50 percent of voter made over $50,000. About

four in ten in each state makes less than that. Also important to remember

when comparing the states Pennsylvania close primary today. Ohio, it was an

open primary.

And look at where voters live. There is a large number of small town

and rural voters in Pennsylvania. In fact, about one-fifth come from small


towns or the country. That's true of just 11 percent essentially of Ohio

voters. About the same number I should say in each state lives in big cities.

The difference is in the suburbs. That's key. The suburbs. Somewhat more

suburban essentially in Ohio.

One big difference that many observers have also remarked on is

Pennsylvania's aging population. Only Florida has an older population than

Pennsylvania. Among Democratic voters, today, over one-fourth, look at that

number, look at that number, 27 percent are 65 or older. Ohio voters was just

14 percent were over 65. By contrast, just 10 percent of those who had voted

thus far today are ages 18 to 29. That was 16 percent in Ohio. We know why

that's important. Younger voters like Barack Obama. The older voters, of

course, like Hillary Clinton.


And finally, religion. Both Pennsylvania and Ohio have substantial

Catholic populations. In the Keystone State it is particularly large. It is

four out of ten in Pennsylvania. In Ohio, it was just three out of 10, what do

we know? White Catholics have in the past favored Hillary Clinton. Chris and

Keith?

OLBERMANN: Norah O'Donnell with the exit polls. Thank you, Norah.

MATTHEWS: Let's bring back the insiders. Now, the only two people

here elected to talk about politics. Joe Scarborough and Harold Ford.

Joe?

JOE SCARBOROUGH, MSNBC ANCHOR: Hey, Harold, let's pretend we're in the

Democratic cloakroom. We are two uncommitted superdelegates and we just found

out Barack Obama lost Pennsylvania. We are talking and I say to you hey, man,


I'm concerned about this guy. He's been in Pennsylvania for seven weeks. He

has had $9 million, he's crushed Hillary Clinton as far as the ad wars go. But

he can't close the deal. He can win now, and we are in a Democratic cloakroom,

I would then say those Republican bastards are going to kill him in the fall.

What do we do?

HAROLD FORD JR.: That's a great question.

SCARBOROUGH: It is a great question.

FORD: The question is going to be asked come this week and next week.

And I think the answer, Joe knows this as well as anybody.

SCARBOROUGH: No, hold on, Harold. We are in the cloakroom and role

playing here, buddy. What do you say to me?

FORD: The difference is I'm a Democrat and you are Republican.


SCARBOROUGH: No. But I'm playing a Democrat. Also, you are

supporting Obama. Get out of that. Seriously. What do you say in the

cloakroom when somebody comes up to you and says, I want to commit to this guy,

I just don't think he can beat McCain in the fall if he can't close the deal

now?

FORD: I think Pat had the great point last segment. I chair the DLC

so I am not endorsing nor can I support anybody. But I think the question

becomes as you look at the big states, Barack had a hard time putting an end to

this and closing this. So he will make the argument he brings more people into

the fold and his supporters will make the argument. If tonight there is not a

big win I would agree with the supposition some of the superdelegates are going

to step back, take a pause and think long and hard. Even the ones who have


committed. When they hear the argument or rationale laid out by Joe just

there, I think they, too, will stand back a bit. If this win is a seven, eight

point win tonight I think you will see a lot of superdelegates tomorrow and the

following days. Step back and say we have to think through this.

SCARBOROUGH: So Harold, if somebody comes up to you and they - your

leadership position, the they say I want to support Obama but he's lost

California, he's lost New York, he has lost Pennsylvania, he has lost Ohio, he

has lost Texas, he has lost Florida. He has lost every big state. They like

the guy. And then they whisper what's wrong with him? Why can he win these

big states? What do you tell them?

FORD: Well, I am not a surrogate for either of the campaigns. I think

the number is a straightforward one. He started late in Pennsylvania. This is


a state that has been very supportive of the Clintons over the years. He faced

some challenges, some gaffes during the time in Pennsylvania. Stood strong,

stood firm with those blows and able to survive it. If the...

SCARBOROUGH: Harold, hold on. I have to give you a time-out. Let me

ask you something. If you had four times the amount of TV ads against Bob

Corker in Tennessee when you ran for Senate in 2006, would Corker beat you?

FORD: There were probably a few other things that worked there as

well. We probably - we may not have made up the 25,000 votes if we had...

SCARBOROUGH: If you had - think about it. How many Senate races do

you know where one Senate candidate has four or five times the amount of 30-

second ads blanketing a state and they still lose after having of the airwaves

for seven weeks?


FORD: You're right. You can find many races where that has happened.

Look, your supposition is spot on. I don't mean to be evasive. I have to be

careful in my position.

SCARBOROUGH: No, you don't have to be careful. This is just between

us.

FORD: If I were advising the Obama campaign in the morning, my point

would be very simple. You have to get out and you have to touch these blue

collar workers and you have to get more substance and specificity. Even if you

believe you are, clearly, something is not working. The attacks, no need to

cry about the attacks, complain about the attacks, that's part of the business,

when you get in are a close contested and heated primary, you have to get out

and show a toughness and show resilience and...


SCARBOROUGH: How would you do it? You did it in Tennessee. You cut

into white blue collar voters in Tennessee among Democrats and independents and

some Republicans. How did you do it? What did you do that Barack Obama is not

doing in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Texas, these other big states?

FORD: I think he has got to do two things. One, you got to get in

with these blue collar workers. You have got to walk through their plants and

the things he has been doing. You've got to walk through the diners and

through farmlands and you've got to make clear to all of those people that you

not only can speak and talk a great game and have great rhetoric but you have

to - you understand where they live and how they live and here is what you are

going to do to change things.

When a campaign becomes about a person, about an individual, I'm not


accusing the Obama campaign of this, but when it becomes about an individual

and not about the people, as you well know, Joe, you wouldn't have won in that

district of yours where you had a lot of democrats. Had you to connect with

people in those districts. One thing the Clintons have done a great job of in

this campaign is that. If your - she wins by eight or nine or 10 points there

are legitimate questions that will be raised about Barack and he will have a

harder time holding the superdelegate crew he has now and even bringing more to

his fold in spite of what some in the media may thinking and may suggest after

tonight's numbers.

SCARBOROUGH: Thank you, Harold. Now back to you, Chris. Bottom line,

the key is you have to be a regular Joe.

OLBERMANN: As a regular Joe. Let me ask you as an outsider to an


insider, Joe. One question. Does this answer your question? If in every

competition in this race it has been the same trajectory, it ends at different

places depending when the finish line is, but in every one of those, it is

Obama from time where we start to time where we end and Clinton is time where

we start to time where we end every single time. Is that not the answer to the

question you posed?

SCARBOROUGH: I don't know. I think right now what Democrats are going

to be doing, what I certainly would do, what people will be doing is if Hillary

wins by five, six, seven points, people are going to start looking a lot closer

in trying to figure out what it is that stops him from winning the big

campaigns in the closing dates. Why can't he close the deal? Of course,

Rachel always brings up the great points. He is going to win New York. He is


going to win California.

He is going to win a lot of these contests that he is losing now. But

that's not the issue. These are all huge tests for him. Huge tests for his

campaign. He does so many things right but the one thing he can't do is close

the deal in the really big races. And that's what the Obama campaign and the

Clinton campaign and Democratic Party has to figure out moving forward. If he

does not close the deal tonight in Pennsylvania.

MATTHEWS: Well, thank you, Joe, thank you Harold. One reason he has

not been able to close the deal is he's running against Mr. and Mrs. Democratic

Party the last 20 years. This is real. Just moments away, right now, before

the polls in Pennsylvania will be closed, up next, NBC's Tim Russert is going

to join us. This is MNSBC's continuing coverage of the Pennsylvania primary.


(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

OLBERMANN: Polls close in Pennsylvania at the top of the hour. NBC's

Washington bureau chief, the moderator of MEET THE PRESS, Tim Russert rejoins

us here. As we continue with MSNBC's coverage of the Pennsylvania primary in

advance of those poll closings. Tim we are going to pick up where we were

before the break. Which is it, is it you can't close in the big states or is

it trajectory? Which is the key here?

TIM RUSSERT, NBC NEWS HOST: Clearly, he demonstrates that he can close

the gap, Keith, with advertising and campaigning. And make a race close. The

two problems he has, one, people who decide in final three days seem to break

against him. And whether that is because there is a question mark over his

head, placed by Senator Clinton, by the Republicans, by his own comments. I'm


sure its a combination of all of those. I tell you what I think the issue is.

And that's women. White women in particular. That is what prohibits Obama

from bringing this to closure. Because their support of Senator Clinton is so

solid, it just can't be peeled away. By - I don't think anyone, any other

candidate. And if you have a white ethnic woman, high school educated, making

less than $50,000, that's rock solid Clinton supporter. If this was Obama

versus a white man, I don't think he would be having this trouble. I don't

think that the allegiance white women and in that age group have for Senator

Clinton would apply to another candidate.

And this has been an enormous benefit for her and want a shadow of that

and see her as a vehicle to do that. They believe in her. But that has been

the impediment. And so come a fall election, what will those white women do?


Obama's guess is that they will vote for him because he bases that on the

favorable unfavorable ratings he gets in all the states. It is not that they

don't like him. They just want to be part of history and they like Senator

Clinton more.

OLBERMANN: This is just way out left field. If it is Obama at the

nominee and he has this issue to deal with of the disaffected, particularly

white women who were Clinton supporters and she is not in the race, let's

assume she is not a vice presidential possibility, is there a substitute? Is

there someone that can attract that audience, that demographic as loyally? Is

there another woman? Would he go in this direction? We are way ahead of

ourselves but you just brought the point up.

RUSSERT: Great question. That's why the governor of Kansas has been


getting serious mention. That's where you start weighing the vice presidency.

Do we need a woman to appeal to the Clinton base that I have not been able to

get big states. Do I need to focus on the economy and do something like Mike

Bloomberg, the entrepreneur, the billionaire? Formally a Republican. Do I

need foreign policy credentials and do former General Anthony Zinni or Senator

Jim Webb of Virginia, is Virginia a swing state. Everything has to be on the

table. But I think that part of that component has to be how do I get those

women, those white women over 50 making less than $50,000 who voted for Hillary

Clinton two to one in every primary?

OLBERMANN: Let's have Tom Brokaw to chime in who is with us now. NBC

News special correspondent. In the moments we have before the top of the

hour. All right. you are in charge. How do you answer that one that Tim


Russert just posed?

TOM BROKAW, NBC NEWS ANCHOR: I think one of the things that they can

do, Keith, will depend a lot on how he makes the case for what he will do about

the issues that affect those women. It is not just his personal appeal but it

will be his policy as well. And to measure them against the policies of John

McCain, who would you rather have in the White House representing your

interests, John McCain or me if in fact Obama is able to win the nomination.

And as for picking a vice presidential candidate, my guess is that Tim

will agree with this, he has time. He will be playing that board now between

now and August in Denver. And he will be looking at the conditions that he

needs to fulfill the expectations he fills geographically, national security or

whether it is the economy. Or whether it is cultural, something else that pops


up at that time. But most of all, what he needs do is to secure the nomination

first.

MATTHEWS: Tom and Tim, do you think the fight between Hillary and

Barack that has gotten so personal has blanked out the chance for Barack

especially to get across an election campaign message like a tough message on

populism, the oil companies power over American life, the power special

interests, more importantly, he hasn't been able to talk about the things

Barack did, Chaka Fattah said he was going to try to raise in Pennsylvania.

Social Security, saving Social Security by raising the cap in Social Security

and guaranteeing the seniors and women that care about the seniors, Social

Security checks in perpetuity. He has not been able to raise the issues. He

has been so busy defending himself against Hillary on the Reverend Jeremiah


Wright, et cetera.

BROKAW: Well, what happens, Tim, is that Pennsylvania - pardon me,

Chris. What happens is that Pennsylvania is over tomorrow. These primary

campaigns have a fixed life span and then they disappear. How many people can

remember what the debate was about, for example, in New Hampshire? I think

what happens in the fall and Democratic Party will depend very much on the

deportment of these two candidates and what they do with each other and to each

at the convention in Denver.

If they come out and put their arms around each other and if one raises

the hand of the other and says look, we have been through a tough process here,

but we are now all united as Democrats and it is very important for us to go

forward and to win as the Democratic Party that has great appeal to


independents in this country as well I'm here for her and she's here for me.

However, they decide the formulation, I think that they can put all of this

bitterness behind them.

RUSSERT: Chris, the interesting thing is someone very close to John

McCain said we have no illusions that after Labor Day the campaign is going to

be the economy is in recession and it is time for a change. The Iraq War is

going on more than five years. It is time for a change. Voters, the

Republicans had control of the White House for eight years. It is time for a

change. They understand that. That's why McCain is going to keep trying to

put that question over Obama's head and on social, cultural and personal issues.

OLBERMANN: Tim Russert, Tom Brokaw, thank you much. We will get back

to you later on. It is time for our change because at the top of the hour we


will have a characterization of Pennsylvania when we continue.

KEITH OLBERMANN, CO-HOST: Too close to call in Pennsylvania. At 8:00

p.m. Eastern Time with the polls there now closed, according to NBC News, the

race between Senator Hillary Clinton and Senator Barack Obama for the

Democratic primary in the Keystone State is indeed too close to call. Not an

extraordinary surprise.

Alongside Chris Matthews, I'm Keith Olbermann. We begin another hour

of our coverage of the primary.

CHRIS MATTHEWS, CO-HOST: We are getting a lot sort of information, not

final results. Of course, we don't know yet, as you said, it's too early to

call. But we are getting a sense of what we thought was coming. New voters

are leaning towards Barack. Voters who decided in the last couple of hours, in


fact, the last couple of days to make up their minds tend to go to Hillary

Clinton. So, there are some patterns here we've seen across the country for

these 45 contests already.

OLBERMANN: And this however, of course, of all of them is "spin-

sylvania." It is depending on - the results will be interpreted by each side

as some kind of victory regardless of what Senator Obama said earlier in the

evening, about how a victory is 50 percent of the vote plus one vote.

MATTHEWS: Somewhere in that DMZ of five to eight, I think we're going

to see a lot of skirmishing if that's the result tonight.

OLBERMANN: Right. Four or five, she may be out. The over/under of

seven, or that's I see - eight was still in the Tim Russert danger zone, nine

and 10 and she clearly stays in this thing then.


MATTHEWS: Right. Nine and 10 is a win, somewhere in the middle is a

mush.

OLBERMANN: Right. The danger zone aforementioned originating from

conversations we have with Tim Russert about two hours ago, our NBC News

Washington bureau chief, moderator of MEET THE PRESS joins us once again.

Too close to call. That's not a surprise.

TIM RUSSERT, NBC NEWS WASHINGTON BUREAU CHIEF: No, Keith. You know,

and it's interesting, each campaign hope for a different headline. Hillary

Clinton wanted to have this projected at 8:00 o'clock: Stunning, landslide,

Pennsylvania, Clinton, on she goes, start the money coming in right now. Obama

would have preferred obviously: Stunning, upset, Obama ends candidacy. Not to

be.


And now, here comes the fun part. It's called the raw vote. The

voters actually get to decide what we're going to say. How about that for fun?

OLBERMANN: Right. And with the - two minutes since the polls

closed, the raw vote is a nothing- nothing tie.

RUSSERT: Right.

OLBERMANN: We expect that to change but we never know. Even though

that heavy turnout it might be just a mirage. There it is. Just in case you

didn't believe me, zero, zero, and the difference of zero.

Suddenly, we devolve into "Mary Tyler Moore" episode for the

Minneapolis local city council.

RUSSERT: What's the Keith number on that?

OLBERMANN: The Keith number is, of course, zero.


RUSSERT: OK.

MATTHEWS: You know, somewhere in New York is the guy in the middle of

the night, probably a guy trying to figure out the "Daily News" and the "New

York Post" headline for tomorrow. Is it mush? It is wet noodle? What is it

going to be?

OLBERMANN: All right. Once again, we will turn everything over to our

arbiter of such things, Tom Brokaw, NBC News special correspondent.

Is it - the fact that there's no call at this point, is that by itself

a headline that does not serve Senator Clinton well?

TOM BROKAW, NBC NEWS SPECIAL CORRESPONDENT: think it probably will

unnerve the Clinton people. I was talking to a major fund-raiser late this

afternoon, who said, the only number I'm interested in is a 10 percent


victory. I said, "Is it about money?" And the answer came back, yes.

They're going to need a significant victory to continue to raise

money. In the words of a late California genius legislator, Jesse

Unruh: "Money is still the mother's milk of politics." They've got contests to

go.

Senator Clinton, it's well known had to loan her own campaign $5

million. And it's getting tougher every week for her to raise the money

because people don't give just out of the goodness of their hearts. They're

betting on whether or not she can win in the long haul or not. And without a

significant victory tonight in Pennsylvania, the business of raising additional

money for the contests ahead on North Carolina and Indiana which will also be

expensive, that effort will be handicapped for her a great deal if she doesn't


come out of here with a significant victory.

OLBERMANN: Is there a bailout point, Tom? Those people that you've

talked to, is there actually that margin which something could happen to end

this campaign in the succeeding days?

BROKAW: No. I think they are staying away from that but they're

political realist. And they know that if you can't make the media buys and if

you can't finance the airplanes and pay the staff, and you hit a wall of some

kind. Now, we'll see whether that happens or not.

You know, they've been running behind, as you know, Senator Obama in

raising money especially off the Internet. He's outspent them by a very

considerable margin in Pennsylvania up to this point. And money will really be

the currency of the coin of the realm here in the coming weeks.


MATTHEWS: Tim, use raised something really fascinating a couple of

minutes ago, it's about the choreography right now. Certainly, Hillary Clinton

is doing everything she can to break this thing wide open. She's had to play

tough just to get the game started again.

But watching Barack Obama is an interesting thing to watch. You

pointed out earlier tonight that he has to be nice to Hillary Clinton, to use a

simple word, to try to give her the flexibility to come down off where she's

been, the pretender of the throne. Tell me how you see that choreography

working it's way up the next week or so.

RUSSERT: It depends obviously what happens tonight, Chris. If, in

fact, Hillary Clinton does not have a big victory but wins barely, then you'll

see, I think, Senator Obama and his campaign trying to be extremely gracious,


making it easy for Senator Clinton to find comfort in a very difficult

decision. On the other hand, if she has a strong finish tonight and wins big,

like Governor Rendell is hoping for and working for, then, this goes on in a

very robust and vigorous way.

I want to pick up on money because it's so important. Clinton campaign

costs $1 million a day to run. The people who haven't been paid, Mark Penn,

her former chief strategist, is owed a lot of money. The Clintons are owed $5

million. You have to keep the airplanes up in the air. Television buys, not

only in Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Indiana, Obama has already bought

twice as much television as Clinton. And this is two weeks out.

So, if her money dries out and that becomes a four to one component,

then you're in a situation where you're thinking, if I want to get out or if


I'm going to have to get out, why not go out on top. I won Pennsylvania by a

few points. I will exit gracefully as a winner.

If on the other hand, it's double digits, look out. She is in this.

She tries to win Indiana. She knows she wins West Virginia and Kentucky. She

knows - she thinks she can win Puerto Rico and we go into June.

OLBERMANN: Well, right now, that only digit, again, is zero, but it

also implies on the other end of it, Tim, that Obama has to not only spend that

money on TV, but plan on it as if it all has to be nice, as if it has to be

cordial. He can't throw a punch at this point. He sure (ph) to lock in if

this is a narrow decision tonight?

RUSSERT: It depends obviously on the tone of the Clinton campaign.

But if they're in a situation where they have not won big and they're really


groping for money, yes, I think you'll see a lot of superdelegates begin to

coalesce, Keith. Obama is looking for an opportunity to break out, as Chris

was describing it, of the straitjacket, of having to answer charges and

countercharges within the Democratic primary and start debating the macro

issues with John McCain. As long as Senator Clinton continues this race as a

vigorous candidate, he will not have that chance. She can only continue as a

vigorous candidate if she's funded and she'll only be funded with a big victory

tonight.

BROKAW: And you have to keep your eye on something else here, Keith

and Chris, and that is the superdelegates. A lot of frustration in the Obama

camp because they keep saying that the superdelegates are whispering in their

ear: We're really with you but we want to wait for this process to go on for a


while and we'd like to have our own state vote.

I was talking to some western politicians last week and they were

saying, well, let's wait and see what they have to say in our states first

before we make a decision. They are not ready to go public with it at this

time even though they are indicating to the Obama campaign in pretty

significant numbers that they are inclined for him but they've seen during the

course of this campaign that we've taken some quick detours along the way. And

these are people who are interested in preserving their own political capital.

OLBERMANN: And the superdelegates glacial pace, Tom, is that also

connecting back to Tim's point about cordiality. Do they have to sort of stay

aloof to help provide Senator Clinton with a dignified climbdown if it comes to

that?


BROKAW: Well, I think what's also happening with some of the

superdelegates who are still in the downstream states, as I described them,

superdelegates where we still have not have primaries is that they're - I

think, that the Obama people have played this very well, you don't want to go

against the will of the people in those states and you don't want to have a

Democratic convention in Denver which is divided between the people who voted

and the people who represent the establishment.

So, it puts them in a pretty tough position at this point and based on

the superdelegates that I've been talking to, the indication is that they want

to go with the will of the people in their district or in their state. That's

the safest place for them. And you've got to remember that some of them are on

the ballot again this fall and they're very cognizant of that as well.


OLBERMANN: And it's all easiest if somebody says I'm withdrawing and

that makes it so simple for everybody else. You never have to know where they

would have come down if push came to shove.

Tim, and, Tom, thanks. We will check in with you, obviously,

throughout the evening.

Let's go to the Clinton campaign headquarters in Philadelphia where

NBC's Andrea Mitchell has been standing by. Andrea, was there is shock that

8:00 o'clock came and there was no call that said, yes, this big win has

already been scored for Senator Clinton?

ANDREA MITCHELL, NBC NEWS CORRESPONDENT: Well, the insiders already

had figured that out. They've got the information. They know how close this

is.


And they've known for a couple of hours now, and looking at the exit

polls and hearing their reports from the field, that they are not going to get

most likely the big victory that they were really hoping for to push them

forward to Indiana. And as you know, what we learned this week from their old

filings to the FEC is that they've got have a really big cash problem. They

are in the red.

Barack Obama brought in $41 million last month. He still has $42

million cash on hand. He has clobbered them here. They've been pointing that

they are the underdogs here and that they don't have the money to go up against

his advertising. Of course, they're not pointing that they came in with a 20-

point lead and that lead really evaporated.

So, there's a lot of tension here among the professionals, among the


people on the staff, and her, you know, the top advisors because they can see

now how close this is and that they're going to have to figure out another

rationale for going forward and for reassuring those donors.

MATTHEWS: You know, earlier tonight, Andrea, it's Chris Matthews, I

get the sense that Governor Rendell is little edgy tonight, a little concerned

about these numbers. He's the smartest guy around. He knows what's going on

as fast as anyone. He may well be, it seems to me, the person that is going to

have to tell Senator Clinton, we put our best shot in here. I had every mayor

in the state behind us, we had all the clout of government behind us, and the

party apparatus, and we couldn't do it. We can't do any better than we did

here. Let's look at the facts.

Do you think he's going to play that role in the next several days if


that comes to it?

MITCHELL: Sure. Ed Rendell, the Dutch uncle. Look, he had in the

past, in the last couple of weeks, we've been here six weeks now, he's been

saying things like she needs a big win. He was giving the rationale for her to

go on and fight this nomination out.

And if they don't get the numbers that they need out of Pennsylvania,

of course, it will be Ed Rendell, you're actually right, and others in the

party who will go to her. He has the virtue of being friend, her loyal

supporter, and unlike Howard Dean and others, Nancy Pelosi, others that she is

much more suspicious of. If she hears it from Ed Rendell, that will like

hearing it from Terry McAuliffe and hearing it from her own husband.

OLBERMANN: One last question, Andrea, it's quiet, it's too quiet.


We'd just crossed the two-hour mark since anybody has gotten one of these

boastful e-mails from either the Obama campaign or the Clinton campaign. It's

pointed out that David Axelrod was spotted at the airport as they disembarked

or embarked for Indiana wearing a t-shirt that he bought that reads "Stop the

drama, vote Obama," that within the last two hours.

But in terms of that e-mail flurry, that pre-result spin that we've

gotten every one of these primaries throughout the whole long course of this -

nothing - silence. Where are these people, and why, not that we are not happy

not to be flooded with e-mails, but why are they so quiet?

MITCHELL: See, you're so lucky, Keith. I am still getting those e-

mails.

OLBERMANN: I think I was just dropped from the list.


MITCHELL: And they are telling me, "Look at all the money he's got.

Look all the ads he's got on the air. You know, if he were to, you know, come

close tonight, it's because of all of his advertising." They just don't have a

nerve to spin to you while you're on the air.

OLBERMANN: No, that's never stopped them before.

Andrea Mitchell, in Philadelphia, with the Clinton campaign, many

thanks.

Let's check at the other end of the equation, NBC's Lee Cowan at

Evansville, Indiana, where the Obama camp will be, I guess, reconvening

throughout the evening.

Lee, good evening.

LEE COWAN, NBC NEWS CORRESPONDENT: Well, good evening. You can hear


the crowd now behind me here. Barack Obama is supposed to be here in about an

hour or so for a rally that will be kicked off with John Mellencamp. We should

point, he's also going to be performing for Hillary Clinton in a short time.

But the numbers tonight are exactly what this campaign was hoping to

get. They were really hoping going into Philadelphia. They like playing the

role of the underdog. They thought if they could go in and just narrow that

just enough, maybe not to get a win but if they could bring it into single

digits, that was going to be considered a win for them. And if they can keep

it that tight tonight, then they come out of it with a lot of money.

They come into Indiana, which is a state neighboring his home state.

He's done well in states that are in his backyard essentially. So, they think

this will really provide them the momentum they need and perhaps, this would be


the race that will wrap it all up here in Indiana.

OLBERMANN: Lee Cowan in Evansville, where, as he said, Senator Obama

is due in about an hour. We'll be checking back with you before then and at

that time. Chris?

MATTHEWS: We have new numbers right now from our exit polling. And

for that, we go to Norah O'Donnell. Norah?

NORAH O'DONNELL, MSNBC CHIEF WASHINGTON CORRESPONDENT: And good

evening to you, Chris, and, Keith. Andrea talked about how antsy they are

inside the Clinton campaign. Well, we're getting a good look at why

Pennsylvania at this hour is too close to call.

Let's start with how voters are breaking by age. Well, Barack Obama is

essentially carrying the vote of those under 45 by a very healthy margin, 57


percent to 43 percent. Hillary Clinton counters with an even bigger edge among

seniors, 65 and older, she's taking that group, look, 60 percent to Obama's 38

percent.

Although when you look at race, Obama is carrying 90 percent of the

black vote, while Hillary Clinton is winning the white vote, 60 to 40 percent.

But Obama is proving very competitive among certain segments of the white

electorate.

Now, let's look how whites are voting by gender. Clinton support among

white women is overwhelming. She is winning by 27 points essentially. That's

the women right over there. But white men are also a key, swing groups. There

she leads by just, look at that, 10 points, 55 percent to 45 percent.

Hillary Clinton also assiduously courted support from less affluent


blue-collar whites. Remember by pummeling Barack Obama over his "bitter"

comment, well, she is winning white voters with household incomes under $50,000

by a two to one margin, 66 percent to 34 percent, those inside numbers. But

whites with the higher income, see that, that $50,000-plus, they were closely

split: 54 percent for Clinton, 46 percent for Obama.

There are also regional patterns in support that show why this contest

is essentially is so close. Barack Obama is piling up big margins in

Philadelphia and the Philadelphia suburbs where he's getting over 60 percent of

the vote. This helps make up for his weaker position in the Pittsburgh area,

and, of course, in the rest of the state, outside essentially of the big city.

Also, what about those late deciders and the new voters that everyone

wanted to know so much about? Well, the new voters broke six out of 10 for


Obama and the late deciders - they went to Hillary by exactly the same margin.

Chris and Keith?

MATTHEWS: Thank you very much, Norah.

Let's bring in Lisa Caputo, as former press secretary for Hillary

Clinton when she was first lady and is now a senior campaign advisor.

Lisa, thank you for joining us. What is the mood in the campaign as we

sit and all wait for the numbers to pop in and come on our screen here?

LISA CAPUTO, CLINTON CAMPAIGN SR. ADVISOR: Well, is the mood is as you

can imagine, I mean, everybody is very anxious for the numbers to come in.

Everybody has been looking at early numbers. The campaign is really encouraged

by the women's vote that Norah just talked about. They've got a robust women's

effort as you know, Chris. And that's really coming home to roost.


They went out extensively crisscrossing the state, doing a lot of house

parties, a lot of female senior surrogates for Senator Clinton out campaigning.

The other key thing to notice is, let's remember that Pennsylvania is

predominantly white as we've just heard and the late deciders are breaking

Hillary Clinton's way. So, that's encouraging to the Clinton campaign, most

certainly, much in the way we saw in previous contests where the late deciders

did break for Hillary Clinton. And the campaign sees "a win is a win" here

because if she wins Pennsylvania, she's racking up yet another battleground

state, and we have yet to see Senator Obama, I think, with the exception of

Missouri win a battleground state.

MATTHEWS: Let me ask you, you grew up in Pennsylvania, right?

CAPUTO: I did.


MATTHEWS: Where?

CAPUTO: Northeastern Pennsylvania, Wilkes-Barre.

MATTHEWS: I thought so. So, you're from Wilkes-Barre. Hillary

Clinton spent most of her summers growing up in Scranton. I thought she did a

very good job reintroducing herself as a local person. I was talking to one of

the politicians around Philadelphia for Bucks County, in fact, who told me, you

know, she's come across as the hometown girl if you don't mind that phrase,

girl.

What do you make of it? She really did play up the gun-toting - daddy

taught her how to shoot a gun, her father played for Penn State, her brother

played for Penn State. I thought she did a very good job becoming the local

favorite.


CAPUTO: She did. I mean, she - I talked to a couple of reporters,

certainly in my home town, newspapers, who told me how impressed they were by

how she really drove home her roots - her roots in Northeastern Pennsylvania

and really talked extensively about her grandfather, her father and the roots

that she had there. She spent her summers up in Scranton by one of the lakes

up there.

So, she really went all out to relate to the blue-collar people of

Northeastern Pennsylvania certainly, trying to identify with their economic

plight, driving home her economic plan. So, I think it was incredibly

effective.

MATTHEWS: Thank you, Lisa Caputo.

CAPUTO: Nice to see you, Chris.


OLBERMANN: All right. Let's get early reaction after the polls closed

just 19 minutes ago, from the Obama campaign, Congressman Patrick Murphy of

Pennsylvania joining us now.

Congressman, thanks for your time.

REP. PATRICK MURPHY, (D) PENNSYLVANIA: Thanks, Keith. I appreciate

it. And actually, I went to college in Wilkes-Barre. And my brother lives

there. And he supports Barack Obama and in fact, he's overseas right now with

our military. And I think that's one of the things that differentiate these

two candidates. Barack Obama had a judgment before the war to speak out

against Iraq and now, a judgment to lead our troops out of Iraq within the

first 16 months.

OLBERMANN: To what degree is that - that does not turn up in the exit


poll as the number one issue at the moment. Obviously, it has been. It was,

certainly, when this campaign started a year and a quarter ago. What is the

feeling on the ground relative to it, less about Obama and Clinton and more

about the issue when it, perhaps, comes up and shows itself at its correct size?

MURPHY: Right. And, Keith, I think the number one issue that people

care about is change. And that people are smarter sometimes than the people

who overanalyze this stuff. The people in Pennsylvania and across our country,

Keith, understand that Iraq and the economy go hand in hand.

When you spend $3 trillion in Iraq that's $3 trillion you can't spend

on education, infrastructure, on creating these green power manufacturing jobs

for green energy so we can wean ourselves off that foreign oil. They get it.

And that's why I think that Barack Obama has been dramatically able to cut into


Senator Clinton's lead. She was up 33 points, Keith. It's now hopefully going

to be in single digits, and I'll see that will be a great night for Barack

Obama..

OLBERMANN: Is there a disconnect congressman, if the number we just

saw in the exit poll is 73 percent of voters in Pennsylvania, 3/4, essentially,

say the thing they want most in their presidential candidate is to bring change

and yet what we're looking at right now is something close to a tie. It's

certainly not 73 percent to 22 percent in the outcome of this or anything like

that. What does that say about a disconnect between the change candidate and

Senator Obama's support?

MURPHY: Well, I think you have to look - you can't look at it in a

vacuum, Keith. You've got to say, look, Pennsylvania is a state where Senator


Clinton is well known. She's a neighboring U.S. senator, just up north in New

York. The fact that the Clinton brand name here, it's the second oldest state

in the entire country.

He had a lot of obstacles. It's a closed primary today, so people

couldn't register or if they're independent, they couldn't vote for Barack

Obama today. I know, I was in the train stations yesterday morning and a woman

grabbed me and she said, "Patrick, I will love to vote for Barack Obama

tomorrow but I forgot to change. I thought I could vote tomorrow but I'm an

independent." And I said, "Well, we got to get you to become a Democrat before

next November, even though you can vote on that."

But, Keith, I think people have been inspired across Pennsylvania. I

was just down in center city coming to the studio, Keith, there is a line of


people a few blocks away here, at least 65 deep waiting to vote, to cast their

vote for change. And I think, you know, if it can come within single digits,

it's a great night for the Barack Obama campaign.

OLBERMANN: One would think, all Democrats would be saluting that, but

apparently, it's double the 2004 primary totals. Congressman Patrick Murphy of

Pennsylvania, thanks for your time.

MURPHY: Thank you, Keith.

OLBERMANN: All right. Coming up: The word from inside of both the

campaigns, and from Howard Fineman, who is at our campaign listening post,

getting all the stuff that he promised he wouldn't tell anybody. Howard,

they're spinning the fact that 22 minutes after the polls closed, this race is

still too close to call.


You are watching MSNBC's continuing coverage of the Pennsylvania

presidential primary.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

MATTHEWS: Welcome back to MSNBC's coverage of the Pennsylvania primary

where it's too close to call right now between Clinton and Obama.

Let's check in with "Newsweek's" Howard Fineman. He's the author of

the new book, "The Thirteen American Arguments," and tonight, he's talking to

the campaigns from our campaign listening post.

Howard, are the Hillary people jittery, angry? How would you describe

them?

HOWARD FINEMAN, MSNBC POLITICAL ANALYST: I would describe them

exhausted, Chris, based on the ones I was talking to just a few minutes ago. I


was talking, one of the top fundraisers for Hillary Clinton and she was frankly

out of gas, hoping for a big victory tonight.

But the situation the Clinton campaign is in is, would be familiar to

all of you monopoly players out there, Barack Obama's sort of built hotels on

Boardwalk and Park Place and has really spent the time in Pennsylvania trying

to bankrupt Hillary Clinton's campaign. I mean, it was a kind of win/win

strategy for Obama and that he wanted to keep it under 10 percent if he could.

It looks like he might. And he also wanted to force Hillary to spend, spend,

spend money that she had and money that she didn't have.

The Clinton campaign claims they have $8 million on hand. Maybe they

do, maybe they don't. But the point is, and Indiana and North Carolina, they

just don't have the cash.


North Carolina has a lot of small media markets you've got to campaign

in and advertise in. Indiana can be expensive, too. You've got to have

offices. You've got to have field staff. And the fund-raisers for Hillary are

reduced to the Internet.

Now, you can raise money on the Internet but they're flat out of

bundlers and fat cats and other big money people. The person I talked to was

saying, "These people are just tapped out. There aren't any more of them. We

can only hope that we get some good news tonight so we can raise money on the

Internet."

That's all they can do but the Internet is Obama's turf more than it is

hers.

MATTHEWS: Why don't they take all their volunteers and tell them to


drive or hitchhike to Indiana? Why does everything have to be paid for? Why

do they have to pay $4 million to Mark Penn to be a loyal Clintonite? I don't

understand this cash-and-carry politics. It used to be, in the days of Judy

Pal, how about going back to Ted Sorensen, where the brains weren't for hire.

They worked for people they believed in.

Mark Penn - I went over this list of people this guy owes money to.

He's got to pay Joe Wilson for his airplane ticket. I mean, Joe could have

picked up that ticket price. What is going on with this campaign?

FINEMAN: Well, Hillary does have a lot of volunteers. She has a lot

of...

MATTHEWS: So, why does she have to pay $4 million to her idea man?

FINEMAN: No, no. That can't be argued with, Chris, you are right,


because Hillary's campaign...

MATTHEWS: By the way, his ideas were terrible.

FINEMAN: Yes.

MATTHEWS: I mean, he gave her a smart woman with an un-smart campaign

and she owes him $4 million.

OLBERMANN: Yes, no brain, no pain.

FINEMAN: That's the problem with that because he built a micro

strategy.

MATTHEWS: Why, she could go the IRS and call that a bad debt but I can

also say I'm not paying.

FINEMAN: No, he's the one who told her that it was a quick march to

the coronation and totally was blindsided by Barack Obama. Yes.


MATTHEWS: But I think he's an Iraq war supporter based on his

thinking, just thinking - just guessing.

FINEMAN: Yes. The point is that Hillary had an expensive campaign

built from Washington out. She was based in Washington.

MATTHEWS: Right.

FINEMAN: With a lot of expensive talent. She does have some committed

volunteers and especially, professional women who go all over the country to

try to help her out. But there aren't enough of those people.

And my sense of what the Obama campaign is up to now, having talked to

some of the people tonight is, they want, they tried to sort of strangle her.

They tried for the kill shot in Pennsylvania. They might not have gotten it

directly with a victory but by forcing her to spend so much money in


Pennsylvania against tough advertising by the Obama people, by the way. They

really spent her into something close to oblivion. And it's only a matter of

time in their view before she just has to run out of money.

MATTHEWS: You know, I'm trying to remember who it was when the Titanic

was launched, who said, "Not even God himself can sink this ship."

OLBERMANN: The owner and designer.

MATTHEWS: I think that was the mentality of this campaign.

Unfortunately, it did not serve her well so far. We'll see, tonight, Howard.

Thank you for that report, that listening post.

OLBERMANN: Now this campaign is the Titanic and the Iraq war.

MATTHEWS: The iceberg's name is Barack Obama.

OLBERMANN: I'm sure he has been called worse.


Up next, David Gregory and THE RACE FOR THE WHITE HOUSE panel racing

back to the desk to report to you. The race in Pennsylvania is too close to

call. If you're looking for numbers, there are no hard numbers yet, half an

hour after the polls closed.

MATTHEWS: Just metaphors.

OLBERMANN: And thousands of those. MSNBC's coverage of the

Pennsylvania primary continues after this. Iceberg straight ahead.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

OLBERMANN: We rejoin you with MSNBC's continuing coverage of the

Pennsylvania primary. There is a slight change in terminology. This was too

close to call. This is now too early to call. NBC reporting there is a lead

for Senator Clinton in Pennsylvania. So we have a change in terminology and an


official description of this as being a lead for Senator Clinton in

Pennsylvania.

MATTHEWS: That seems to be the case because too early simply means we

are not ready to give you the results. It does not suggest a close race

anymore.

OLBERMANN: It's too early to call.

MATTHEWS: To call it a close race.

OLBERMANN: We already called it a close race enough.

Let's go back over to David Gregory and our RACE FOR THE WHITE HOUSE

panel. David?

GREGORY: Thanks, very much, Keith. One of the things we like to do on

RACE FOR THE WHITE HOUSE is look inside the war room, look at some of the


numbers. I'm struck by something here, Pat. Clinton won white men 53 to 46

percent, the exit polls showing in Pennsylvania, down a bit from her margins in

Ohio. It leads me to a larger question, which is we know that these two

candidates are different coming out of Pennsylvania than when they went in.

How are they different?

BUCHANAN: Well, I think Barack is doing slightly better, but it is

still leaving this open question, the white working-class, below 50,000,

Catholic, ethnic, especially women, in the general election, do they go over to

Barack? In other words, are they voting for Hillary and are they good

Democrats, or is there resistance among them to Barack and they go the other

way? I think that is the key question for the general election in Pennsylvania

and I think in the country.


MADDOW: You know, in 2006, white working men - in 2006, which was an

overwhelming Democratic victory - in 2006, white working class men went for

Republicans by a 14-point margin. That is not good for Democrats. But not

being able to improve a lot on that shouldn't be fatal for any individual

Democrat.

GREGORY: Why shouldn't there be a concern about whether these

particular voters go to John McCain in the general election?

MADDOW: There is. I don't think Hillary Clinton winning 53 percent of

the Democratic primary should make you comfortable about her prospects.

BUCHANAN: This is a closed Democratic primary. If the white working

class Democratic folks - I mean he is losing more than 50 percent - if they

start going across, it is over.


MADDOW: Why is it a big story for somebody to get 53 percent and

somebody to get 47 percent. She got 53 percent of white men. Why is that even

a story?

ROBINSON: It is the question you ask is the right question. What

portion of those voters have a resistance to Barack Obama and what portion are

voting because they like Hillary Clinton, but will come back to Barack Obama?

We don't know the answer to that. We have not sliced the salami that thin to

know that.

BUCHANAN: Barack is beginning to hurt because he was ten points ahead

of McCain and now it is even.

(CROSS TALK)

GREGORY: Let me get in here to ask this question. Is Barack Obama a


fundamentally weaker candidate after all the vetting that Hillary Clinton

talked about? She said everything is fair game, Reverend Wright, other

questions about his leadership. Is he a weaker candidate now?

BUCHANAN: He is because of the Reverend Wright thing in Pennsylvania,

because of the flag pin thing, because of this bitter comment, because of the

elitism, the suggestion these people are hung up on their bibles and guns. If

you think it is a problem in Pennsylvania, you wait until you get to Virginia.

You wait until you get into the south. You wait until you get into Texas.

ROBINSON: Compared to what? Compared to whom? Is he a weaker

candidate against John McCain?

BUCHANAN: Yes.

ROBINSON: We don't know that. We don't know that. Wait until a


Democrat gets a little space to go to work on John McCain. Then we'll know.

GREGORY: Let's talk about Hillary Clinton. Let's talk about how she

is different coming out of this race. She has dealt in this Pennsylvania

campaign with this question of her own credibility and trustworthiness. She

has to come out of here weaker, despite the fact she may come out with a

victory.

MADDOW: The character stuff, the trustworthy stuff, the gotcha stuff

certainly has taken a toll on both candidates. That was going to happen in the

general election anyway. Three concrete differences with Hillary Clinton right

now. Number one, she is broke. Number two, her negatives are way up from the

attacking stuff. Number three, she has come out of the closet as a full

throated, we will obliterate you, we will attack Iran hawk. The we will attack


Iran stuff is huge. She has done that on the occasion of this all important

Pennsylvania contest.

GREGORY: We're going to leave it there. A lot more on this ahead, as

well. Gentlemen, back to you.

MATTHEWS: David, thanks. Up next, the insiders, Joe Scarborough and

Harold Ford, with their reaction to the race Pennsylvania, which is now too

early to call, but with Senator Clinton in the lead. You are watching MSNBC's

live coverage of the Pennsylvania primary.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

MATTHEWS: It's too early to call in Pennsylvania between Barack Obama

and Hillary Clinton. Although, Senator Clinton does have the lead in first

results coming in. In other words, we know as much now as we knew about six


weeks ago. Let's bring back the insiders, former Congressman Joe Scarborough

and Harold Ford. Joe.

JOE SCARBOROUGH, MSNBC ANCHOR: Thanks so much, Chris. Harold, if this

race is closer than the Clintons expected and the pundits expected, there is

going to be a lot of pressure among Democrats to get Hillary Clinton out of the

race. Let's do some more role playing. If you are the one put in charge of

going to Bill Clinton and say, you need to talk your wife out of this race,

what argument do you make tonight?

FORD: First of all, that is one heck of a job to give me. I say two

or three things, one, the money is going to dry up after this evening if she

hadn't won big. You're going to have a big problem. All you can do is to

challenge him, take on Barack and you hurt us.


Number two, he has brought so many new voters into the fold. It is

questionable whether or not your wife can hold him. Two, if you continue to

attack or she continues to attack or the campaign does, how does he remain as

strong as he possibly can? Three, we believe we can win more down state races

with him with on the ticket on the fall. We are asking you, as politely as we

can, to give serious consideration to move aside.

That's going to be a tough argument to make if she wins big tonight,

which looks, if the numbers are to be believed at this point - she's going to

enjoy maybe a little larger victory than some had anticipated.

Let me flip it for one moment. Gas prices are at 3.50. We're in the

Republican cloak room. President Bush has a 70 percent disapproval rating.

John McCain is tied to him a bit. The economy in the position it is in. How


do you as a Republican, how does John McCain counter, whether it's Barack or

Hillary, all the excitement that they generated, and the clear discontent some

in the country feel with at least the Republican leadership in the White House

today?

SCARBOROUGH: I think a lot of Republicans say, there is good news and

there is bad news, if we're inside the Republican cloakroom. Republicans in

the cloak room will say, can you believe how elitist Barack Obama is sounding?

That San Francisco fund-raiser - he says, people cling to guns and Jesus

because they are bitter. Boy, that sounds just like it is out of the Michael

Dukakis playbook. Ad Reverend Wright on top of that, add the fact he's got

highest liberal voting record according to the "National Journal."

Boy, we are going to be able to paint this guy into the corner and


he'll look like Dukakis by the time we are done with him. That's one side of

him.

FORD: You think the narrative of new versus old may help Barack in the

fall, just looking at what he may run on and how he may position, not only his

narrative, but his campaign, if it is Barack?

SCARBOROUGH: What they are saying in the Republican cloak room is it

may be new versus old, but the bottom line is Barack Obama sounds just like an

old line liberal, the most liberal voting record. Then they will tick down

these lists. Now, at the same time, somebody will stand up and say, but, boys,

we've got a problem. Look at Pennsylvania. Look at Bucks County, look at

Montgomery County, look at Chester County.

These are all the Philadelphia suburbs where Republicans have to win to


win state-wide. They have all broken Democratic and the big number tonight,

300,000. Regardless of whether you are a Clinton supporter or an Obama

supporter, if you're a Democrat, you have 300,000 more Democrats on the rolls

in Pennsylvania. So even if we lose - you know what, we'll go ahead and lose

some of those bowlers, some of those beer drinkers, some of those hunters.

Guess what? We're going to get a lot of suburban Republican house wives voting

for Barack Obama this fall, the soccer moms. They're going to break our way.

For every white blue collar voter we lose in central Pennsylvania, we

pick up a white suburban mom in the Philadelphia suburbs. We'll take that

trade every day of the week.

FORD: Even with the money advantage that Barack or Hillary may have,

versus the two to one turnout amongst - Democrats compared to Republicans in


all these key states, you feel you'll be able to break some of those suburban

households, soccer moms, who clearly are attracted to both Barack and Hillary,

probably Barack more. Give me a little bit on Hillary. They've got to think

she is not out of this either. How do you counter her, if she is able to come

back and overcome what many thought would be an insurmountable lead that Barack

has developed up to this point?

SCARBOROUGH: Hillary Clinton is also easier to paint in the corner.

Here is the problem with Hillary Clinton: she won - again, you look at those

Reagan Democrats that Republicans need to win these races, tonight in

Pennsylvania, Hillary Clinton's won Catholics two to one. Hillary Clinton's

won blue collar voters easily. Hillary Clinton's also - what is the other

one? Hillary Clinton's also won women two to one.


FORD: And elderly voters, it looks like.

SCARBOROUGH: It looks like she is running away with elderly voters

over 65, who are the most reliable Democratic voters every fall. They are

breaking Hillary Clinton's way in a big way. There are a lot of those Reagan

Democrats that John McCain needs to win that he doesn't win against Hillary

Clinton, that he may have a shot of winning against Hillary Clinton.

I didn't speak as clearly as I should have before. What I was

suggesting before was that while Hillary may be able to pick up those blue

collar voters, Barack Obama may be able to win some Republican voters over in

the Philadelphia suburbs that can counter balance any blue collar voters she

loses in the center of the state.

FORD: If you had to place a bet in the Republican cloak room on the


Democrat or John McCain winning in the fall, who would you put your money on?

SCARBOROUGH: Is there a reporter in the cloakroom? It's a Democratic

year. Boys, duck. It is going to be ugly in the fall. Back to you, Chris, on

that happy note.

MATTHEWS: Thank you, Joe. Thank you, Harold.

OLBERMANN: One addendum to that, if you compare - maybe we'll do this

later on at some point - Ohio, which is a very similar demographic state to

Pennsylvania, Obama is still getting clocked in many of those key areas, like

seniors, white men. But the Obama camp would point out that the numbers have

improved over Ohio and significantly so.

All right, let's stick to this one. We get the latest numbers from our

exit polls. Again, we turn to Norah O'Donnell for that. Norah?


O'DONNELL: Good evening again to you, Chris and Keith. Both

candidates have had to deal with particular lines of attack from their

opponent. For Clinton, there have been the charges of dishonesty and lack of

trustworthiness. For Obama, elitism. Well, how did Pennsylvania voters weigh

these criticisms? Let's take a look at the numbers.

About honesty, 68 percent of voters today said Obama is honest and

trustworthy; about 56 percent say that is true of Hillary Clinton. The

advantage on this question goes to Obama. We've seen that in the national

polls. On the economy - it was the top issue among Pennsylvania Democratic

voters today. They expressed more confidence in Hillary Clinton, you see, on

that big issue. Three quarters, 74 percent say she can improve the economy.

Fewer, but, more importantly, still a pretty large majority, 65 percent say


Barack Obama has the right stuff to make economic improvements.

I'm going to send it back to you, Chris and Keith.

OLBERMANN: Norah, great thanks. We are still at the situation where

there is very little in terms of an actual vote count in at one percent. It is

still too early to call, having started at too close to call. A subtle

variation, but meaning a great deal in terms of what the camps are perceiving

at this point. There it is. Too early to call. One percent of the vote in,

literally 21,000 to 14,000 or so in the hard numbers right now at this point.

MATTHEWS: NBC News Washington bureau chief Tim Russert is the

moderator of "Meet The Press." Also with us NBC News special correspondent Tom

Brokaw. Tom, I'm looking at this pattern coming in here now of western

Pennsylvania being more Hillary, eastern Pennsylvania, going south from


Scranton being more pro-Barack Obama. How does that fit into the old patterns

of Teddy Kennedy versus Carter, et cetera?

TOM BROKAW, NBC NEWS SPECIAL CORRESPONDENT: I remember that very

well. Carter had hoped to stop Teddy Kennedy in Pennsylvania in 1980. But

Allegheny County came through for Ted Kennedy. He won in Pennsylvania. The

race had to go all the way to New York. I was talking earlier about the

importance of these two candidates on the stage in Denver, raising their arms

together and saying, whoever wins, we go forward. We had a couple of bad

dates, but we now think we can have some kind of a marriage.

We are about to have a decision. Projected winner, Hillary Clinton in

Pennsylvania. Now the issue, of course, Chris and Keith, is what's the number

that she wins by? Can I just pick up on something else?


MATTHEWS: Sure.

BROKAW: On the economy, which was the most important part, Hillary

Clinton was winning by three and a half to four points. Can she solve the

economy? she was doing better than Obama 64 to 36 percent, and she wins all

but the highest and lowest income groups. That should auger well for her

quantitatively, as well as qualitatively in Pennsylvania tonight, but we'll

have to see what that number is.

I didn't mean to steal your thunder by projecting her as the winner.

OLBERMANN: No, Tom, you take over the Chuck Todd role. We usually

assign to Chuck when we want a call to be made. We have gone in 50 minutes

from too close to call to too early to call. Now, at three percent of the vote

and our exit polling, combining to say that Hillary Clinton has won - or will


win the Democratic primary in Pennsylvania.

The margin is, as Tom just pointed out, the essential issue.

Obviously, this changes the complexion of what the evening looks like in the

two camps.

MATTHEWS: Tim, they can't go to bed on that number we're looking at.

That's the raw vote coming in, 55-45. We have no idea how this is going to end

up a at midnight. Isn't that the big question as we go to bed? Tim? Oh, Tim,

I'm sorry, Tom.

BROKAW: I'll take the part of Tim.

MATTHEWS: OK.

BROKAW: Yes, I think it is still the big question. The Clinton people

right now are on the telephone to potential fund-raisers and people who have


been there in the past, saying, look, she has won Pennsylvania. This is a big

victory for us. They want to get ahead of whatever that margin is going to be

so that they can try to raise some money, because it is now a money game

tonight, as well as a delegate game, and a calendar game about where we go from

here.

They need to raise money coming out of Pennsylvania. A lot of their

success will depend on her margin of victory tonight. But, in fact, she won

Pennsylvania, as she won Ohio, as she won New York and California and Texas.

She can claim that she's the big state victor in this campaign for the

Democratic presidential nomination.

OLBERMANN: All right, Tom. Let's, in fact, see how this is faring at

the headquarters at the Clinton campaign in Philadelphia. Andrea Mitchell is


standing by. We are told to look at the two banners in the distance that both

read HillaryClinton.com as fund raising efforts, obviously, revivify. Is that

the word at the moment, Andrea, revivified?

ANDREA MITCHELL, NBC NEWS CORRESPONDENT: Absolutely, money, money,

money. About a half hour ago, Terry McAuliffe, who is a cheerleader, came to

me and said, look, Ed Rendell is telling us that our voters are coming in late

and that we are going to pull this off. They didn't no margins, but that they

were going to win. He said remember what I told you in Ohio, where we ended up

with ten points. As I talked to more and more of these Clinton people, they

think their vote is going to come in. As you can see, at least the projection

is there for them. Now they have to prove the margin, because they are out of

money and have to focus on fund raising.


They may not have the full win behind them that Bill Clinton was

talking about last night at their last rally, but they are feeling a whole lot

better right now.

OLBERMANN: Does that threshold number of where it's still a

substantial victory, does that lower because it took an hour to call it? Does

it jump up? What is the psychology of this, never mind the actual hard

numbers?

MITCHELL: I don't think it changes that dynamic. It's just that now

we have to look at the hard numbers. As to whether the over/under is eight or

seven or ten, they are going to spin it that a win is a win, no matter what

those numbers are. The money people will look at this and say, if she is eight

or nine or ten, that is a big deal. But if it is less than that, they are


still going to say that her campaign is in a lot of trouble and limps out of

Pennsylvania, instead of leaping out of Pennsylvania.

OLBERMANN: So this underscores Tom Brokaw's point that right now is

the time when the calls are being made to the would-be donors, saying, look, we

won. Let's get that money in here before the final score comes up?

MITCHELL: Absolutely. As they head to Indiana, they are going to be

having money meetings with donors in Washington, D.C. tomorrow and again on

Thursday. So they are meeting with all their people and trying to get more

money out of them. The problem that they have, of course, is that their

donors, more of their donors have maxed out at 2,300 a piece. Barack Obama has

two million people in his database that he can go back to. That's where the

difference is. That's where she is going to have a harder and harder time if


she tries to go on, as she will obviously now try to go on toward Indiana and

North Carolina.

OLBERMANN: Let's turn to Tom about that. There is a sense that the

wolf or the, in this case, perhaps, the Wolfson at the door has been staved

off. Is that not a continuing problem, as Andrea suggests, Tom?

BROKAW: It is. I think what the Clinton people understand more

clearly than we do even that they have a harder time expanding their base than

Senator Barack Obama does. He is bringing in not just new voters from the

Democratic party, but he continues to pull across the line Republicans as

well.

There are some numbers tonight that are interesting from our exit

poll. Before January were you registered as a Republican; by a margin of 55 to


40 percent, Senator Obama won those voters. Did you switch to the Democratic

party in Pennsylvania just to vote in this primary; he won that 61-36. New

Democrats 60 to 38 for Obama. These are people who registered for the first

time and they did so as Democrats.

Senator Clinton does not have that expanding base. She has pretty much

a fixed base. We have been talking about them for a long time. This state is

very emblematic of her base. White women of a certain age and working class

blue collar males, as well as working class women, older voters as well. The

traditional Democrats have gone for Senator Clinton.

But, again, the economy was primary in the minds of these Pennsylvania

voters, and Senator Clinton was deemed by most of them to be the person best

equipped to solve that. They will be using that in the fund raising calls,


saying, look, people in Pennsylvania didn't just vote for her. They said, by a

factor of 93 percent, she is the most experienced candidate in the race and she

is best able to solve the economic problems that will be numero uno come the

fall.

OLBERMANN: So there are numbers still to throw at those would be

donors. But there is, as we are using another sports analogy - there is a

salary cap problem for the Clinton campaign that the Obama campaign does not

have. Even though we have just had this call done in the last couple of

minutes, I will pick up with you on that in a minute, Tom. But Howard Fineman

at the campaign listening post is indicating there is already reaction among

super delegates of his acquaintance.

Let's turn to Howard now. I thought we were waiting for the percentage


to see what the super delegates think. They have all decided?

FINEMAN: No. I think the calls are going out to the super delegates.

There are six members of Congress who are undecided, undeclared, and said, wait

a minute, we are holding off until we see what happens in Pennsylvania. Now

that Hillary has been declared the winner, those calls are going out right

now. The arms are being twisted right now.

We're talking about people like Mike Doyle of Pittsburgh, a Democrat,

Bob Brady of Philadelphia and others, who are undeclared, who said, wait a-

minute, Hillary, wait a minute, Barack, let's see what happens in the vote.

Hillary has to come across with some new super delegates, Keith. Barack Obama

has been playing them out one day after another after another.

Remember, Tom Brokaw saying six weeks ago they had 50 or 60 of them in


their pocket. The Obama people played a lot of them out. Hillary has had very

few super delegates to brag about. Now, with this victory in Pennsylvania,

she's got to come across not only with some money and not only with renewed

fund raising, but with some conversions or some convictions among super

delegates, who have stayed on the fence until now.

There are six members of Congress and a member of the DNC from

Pennsylvania, who are going to be under tremendous pressure now, from Ed

Rendell and from the Clinton campaign and Bill Clinton and others, to come for

Hillary. It's not going to be easy to convince them but they're going to try.

OLBERMANN: Is the answer not uniformly in that situation, let's see

what the percentage is? We are not buying a pig in a poke - I'm not going to

finish that analogy. It sounds really unfortunate and it is. You know what


I'm saying.

FINEMAN: Of course. They're going to say, wait a minute, let's look

at the district results. It's going to depend district by district as well.

There is a lot arguing to do. But the calls are going out right now.

MATTHEWS: Howard, the question is, how does a guy like Bob Brady, who

is also the county chairman of the Democratic party in Philadelphia, who said

that they will not overrule the elected delegates at the convention, how can he

come out now as a super delegate and endorse Hillary?

FINEMAN: They're going to ask him to. That's the point. They're

going to say, look, we want you now. You were waiting to see what the results

were. They are going to answer back, in some cases, let's look at my

district. Let's look at the bottom line at the end of the convention. Some of


these people are going to want to stay uncommitted, if they can.

My only point is Hillary is desperate to have some super delegate

conversions or ones that she has managed to make the sale for. She has only

gotten 12 of them. She is still ahead in total. But since Super Tuesday, she

has only gotten 12 new super delegates. Obama's gotten 83. She has to use

this to pick up a few people in a place like Pennsylvania, because that's part

of the ground war of this going forward to Denver.

MATTHEWS: OK, it's 9:00 on the east coast right now. NBC News

projects that Senator Clinton will be victorious in Pennsylvania when all the

votes are counted late tonight. The big question right now, and it is the

question of the night, what will be the final margin of victory for Senator

Clinton?


Let's bring in David Gregory and THE RACE FOR THE WHITE HOUSE panel.

DAVID GREGORY, CO-HOST: Thank you very much, Chris.

We look this, Pat Buchanan, there's a headline here. You talk about

it before. The average voter looks at this. Hillary Clinton is in this

game. She's got a victory here.

PAT BUCHANAN, MSNBC POLITICAL ANALYST: She sure does. And everyone

is talking about money, but as Napoleon says, "The moral is to the

material as three is to one." She's going to come out of here, maybe

not with a great victory but with enthusiasm, energy, and fire.

If she goes out to Indianapolis and get a crowd, her people are

going to be on fire. Now, that can't overcome this superdelegate hard

count but I do think she's alive in Indiana. She's got a fighting


chance there. She's going on but it is still hard to see even with this

victory, how she takes the nomination away from Barack.

GREGORY: So, Rachel, you're in the Obama camp tonight. What are

you worried about? You've been concerned about the fact that you want

to get superdelegates out there. I see Robert Gibbs on the (INAUDIBLE)

blog and he's got this - the page blog, that's got, "Stop the drama,

vote Obama." It gets hard to make that argument to the superdelegates

if she scores a victory here tonight. We're still waiting on the margin

and that will tell us a lot. So, what do you worry about?

RACHEL MADDOW, MSNBC POLITICAL ANALYST: Well, one of the old things

the Obama campaign has had, they seem to have had this kind of reservoir

of superdelegates up their sleeve, that anytime anything bad happens,


they sprinkle out a few more superdelegate endorsements, that's been one

of the great under the radar things they've done in terms of their

techniques.

What I do worried about if I were them is that if I don't have

anymore up the sleeve at this point. Because if Hillary Clinton does do

well today, just winning, we've been saying, well, I'm the only one

who's saying, one vote is enough. Everyone else is saying she needed 10

points. If the swing goes her way, then, Obama better have something

(INAUDIBLE).

GREGORY: She has got to raise money. That's her victory has to

mean. Even now, while waiting for the spread, she has got to turn this

into actual dollars because she will run out of money. She will bleed


to death in this campaign.

EUGENE ROBINSON, MSNBC POLITICAL ANALYST: She will. And I think we

do have to see the spread. If it's, you know, if it's 10 points, she's

able to raise money. If it ends up being four or five points, she can't

get a whole lot. But if I'm Obama, what I'm worried about is Indiana.

That's the, you know, I think, I'm pretty sure I have North Carolina in

my pocket. I'm going to do well there. I don't want her to get

momentum and threaten Indiana.

BUCHANAN: He has outspent her in Ohio and Texas and in

Pennsylvania, and he's lost all three. Now, he's going to need more

than just money because she's going to get some out there. And you're

right. He ought to look very seriously...


ROBINSON: He has $41 million. He has a lot of money.

BUCHANAN: He has that on April 1, a lot of that went into

Pennsylvania right down the chute.

(CROSSTALK)

GREGORY: (INAUDIBLE) here, Rachel. Now, we're getting into that.

MADDOW: This is a two-person race. What he did with all that money

in Pennsylvania is he broke Hillary Clinton's bank. She is in debt.

He's still up $40 million. That was money well spent if I'm Obama's

finance director.

BUCHANAN: A double digit defeat is what he is now.

GREGORY: And maybe if he - if he is weaken coming out of this,

maybe she's also weaken and he's got enough reserves to keep going.


More to come on this come, more reaction as we await the spread.

Back to you, gentlemen.

KEITH OLBERMANN, CO-HOST: All right, David. We interrupt the

Hillary Clinton telethon and go back to NBC's Washington bureau chief

and moderator of MEET OF THE PRESS, Tim Russert.

And here it is. The number right now is obviously going to change.

But we're now down to Hillary Clinton 52 percent, Barack Obama 48

percent. Were it to finish there, Tim, is that enough for this to

continue or not?

TIM RUSSERT, NBC NEWS WASHINGTON BUREAU CHIEF: I think, Keith, that

that will be considered so close. You'll have some superdelegates who

will move to try to put an end to it. I wonder how the fund-raising


mechanism will kick into high gear.

The interesting thing is that people who are looking at these

numbers closely, Keith, still don't know what the margin is going to

be. They're saying anywhere from five to 12. And so, we wait and we

wait and we count and we count. The one thing we do know is that this

race is not ending tonight.

Senator Clinton will proclaim victory. She'll have a spirited

celebration, trying to take on the aura of a huge victory no matter what

the margin is and crank up that Internet fund-raising machine, hoping to

go on to Indiana and pull off another victory. That's the one thing we

do know. She is not going to get out of this race even if she now wins

by any where as low as five and certainly not as high as 12.


OLBERMANN: All right. So, the number is just changing again, at

53-47. So, it's six points right now since we talked before. Is six

points enough for her to continue?

RUSSERT: So, round and round she goes, where she stops, nobody

knows. Look, the bottom line, she has won Pennsylvania. She's going to

go forward. How aggressive a campaign, how robust a campaign depends on

how much money she can raise, and that's how she is going to make an

impression on the superdelegates.

What she hopes to say to the superdelegates tonight, Keith, is this

is the first race we've had since the "bitter" comments, since the

Reverend Wright video. Democrats are nervous. Democrats are anxious.

A lot has changed since Iowa. This race has been recast. It started anew.


Never mind the delegate count. Never mind the cumulative popular

vote. Let's think of the feel you have for this race. Think of the

sense of history. Who can carry the big Electoral College state?

We are going to hear that tonight and for the next two weeks nonstop.

OLBERMANN: And what do you hear from the Obama people? What are

they saying? Are they saying, well, look, in the same six week-span, he

cut the margin there from 20 percent to tonight's final score, six,

seven, eight - whatever it is?

RUSSERT: You are prescient, exactly right. We are down by 20, we

cut it in half or perhaps more. We have held the lead of elected

delegates. She only gave a handful of delegates because of the

proportional allocation. She lost (ph) in the popular vote, we're still


way ahead. We won twice as many contests. Are you dare going to try to

change the rules and tear the nomination away from Barack Obama, the

first African-American potential Democratic nominee and give it to

someone who didn't score as many delegates?

That's the case that's going to be made, but two weeks from tonight,

Keith, North Carolina is essential to Barack Obama, to show that he can

win a state post "bitter," post Reverend Wright, and Indiana a real

battleground. If he can beat her in Indiana, it could very well shut

down this campaign one more time. We'll throw that out there. But if

she wins Indiana, all bets off are. It is on to West Virginia,

Kentucky, Puerto Rico, Montana, South Dakota, Guam and so forth.

MATTHEWS: Tim, I still go back to the question of how we started


the evening, which is if she can't reset the table, if Hillary Clinton

can cause an eruption in the pattern of this campaign away from Barack

Obama winning most elected delegates, winning the most popular votes in

the primary season and caucus season, what does all this avail?

RUSSERT: Chris, what she's trying to do is all these six weeks is

put that question mark, I've been talking about, on top of Barack

Obama's head. She hopes tonight she lights it up. Flashing for

Democrats, warning signs, there's trouble here. He can't win the

Democratic constituency groups he needs to win in order to beat John McCain.

MATTHEWS: But he's gone from 20 back to perhaps closing within six

or seven. We don't know that and if he's done that, how can you

foreclosure an option he had before tonight?


RUSSERT: Well, that's going to be the counterargument. And also,

the Obama people will keep saying, "Just a second. Slow down on the

spin and momentum. Think about the hard facts. We have more elected

delegates. That's who nominates these candidates. We have a higher

cumulative popular vote. We won more states."

It's going to be spin, spin, spin, so heavy tonight, to see who can

capture the headline tomorrow because whoever captures the headline,

captures the momentum. Whoever captures the momentum, if it's Clinton,

captures the money and resources to keep her campaign alive, because

it's on life support unless she's able to raise the money from the Internet.

OLBERMANN: Yes, it's 8 percent now, Tim, is that enough for them to

go on?


MATTHEWS: Well, that was my line. Let's go to - thank you very

much, Tim.

Let's go right now to Philadelphia and the Clinton headquarters in

the city of brotherly love, with Terry McAuliffe, who is chairman of the

Clinton campaign.

Terry, I'm trying to find a metrics here for figuring out who picks

the Democratic nominee, will it be - Bob Brady said to me the other day

on television, the chairman of the city committee, that the Democratic

Party cannot deny this nomination to the person who wins the most

elected delegates. Your response.

TERRY MCAULIFFE, CLINTON CAMPAIGN CHAIRMAN: Well, Chris, I've got

to tell you, first of all, it's very hard to hear in here. Most of the


networks have now all called it for Hillary's. So, it's an absolute

bedlam up here.

But let me just say, listen, by the time we finish this process,

Hillary Clinton will move ahead in the popular vote. This was a big win

tonight. She won here in Pennsylvania. We were outspent three to one.

They ran negative ads against her.

And you know what? She overcame all that. Why? Because the voters

trust Hillary Clinton. They think she'll do a better job at getting

this economy straightened out. She can deal with the international

crisis around the world. She is prepared to be president of the United

States of America. And people are ready, I'm sure HillaryClinton.com,

people are fired up.


This is a great campaign. Hillary Clinton has proven she's winning

the states we have to win in the general election. Pennsylvania, Ohio,

Michigan, Florida. These are the states that Hillary Clinton has won

and we, as Democrats, need to win the general election.

MATTHEWS: Give me the number if you can of popular vote plurality

tonight, you need to march toward a popular vote victory by mid June.

MCAULIFFE: Well, first of all, Chris, let's be clear. I always

count Florida in the numbers, obviously, 300,000 votes. The difference

was 699,000. You take 300,000 down from that of Florida.

We're going to have a win here tonight. I feel good about where we

are, West Virginia, Kentucky, Puerto Rico, were off to Indiana and North

Carolina next. There are still about 8 million register Democrats in


the upcoming nine contests. There are still close to 600 after tonight,

650 to 750 delegates still to be chosen.

This thing is a long way to go. It is Hillary's message on jobs, on

health care that propelled this victory here tonight. They threw

multiple "kitchen sinks" at her. And, Chris, I'm here with you, once

again, saying, Hillary Clinton pulled it off. And more importantly, the

voters here in Pennsylvania pulled it off for us.

MATTHEWS: Well, congratulations. I'd just want to know what the

scorecard is. Is it elected delegates or is it popular vote counting

Florida in the primaries and caucuses? What's your scorecard?

MCAULIFFE: Well, who knows? It could be a combination of it all.

But I will say at the end of this process, Chris, we will have moved


ahead of the people who went and vote in these primaries and caucuses.

She will have a majority of their votes. The delegates are going to be

very close.

And at the end, Senator Obama needs superdelegates. We need

superdelegates. And they're going to have to make the decision, who is

it that is best prepared to take on John McCain in the general election.

Hillary Clinton, she has won California, Texas, Florida, Ohio,

Pennsylvania, Michigan, New York, New Jersey. She's won the big

states. These are the states that are really going to fire up the

Democratic folks to help us beat John McCain this November.

MATTHEWS: What time do you expect the senator to speak to her

supporters tonight, Terry?


MCAULIFFE: I think she will be out very shortly, probably about a

half an hour or so.

MATTHEWS: OK. Thank you very much, Terry McAuliffe, the chairman

of the Clinton campaign for president.

MCAULIFFE: Thanks, Chris. Good to be with you.

MATTHEWS: Thank you, sir.

Let's get back to the insiders. Joe Scarborough and Harold Ford,

what do you make of that? I mean, Terry is one of the great

cheerleaders of all time. He is the new Bob Strauss. Is that for

real? He doesn't know the margin yet and he is celebrating. Is that

appropriate?

JOE SCARBOROUGH, MSNBC HOST: Harold, let me ask you, Harold, they


won again. Is that appropriate?

HAROLD FORD, MSNBC POLITICAL ANALYST: He's changed the metric. You

had to listen very closely. And we on this network and other networks

have talked a lot about delegates and elected delegates. But he's done

two things effectively this evening. One, he's made clear the popular

vote should count more than the elected delegate vote. He believes her

argument about preparedness for the job is leading to this.

So, the question then becomes for superdelegates: Are you interested

in the popular vote or the elected delegate vote? And in the Democratic

Party, with our history of electoral votes and popular vote and what

happened eight years ago in Florida, it's going to be interesting how

this plays out. As a superdelegate, the first question that Joe asked


of what will happen in the Democratic cloakroom, there will be a lot of

interesting questions and back-and-forth being done.

SCARBOROUGH: But Harold, bottom line is this though, we sit around

that cloakroom. We're Democrats. What are we interested in? Are we

interested in who won the most delegates? Who won the most votes? Or

who's going to beat John McCain in the fall?

We want to win in the fall. If there is a split decision, and we

look the fact that he couldn't put her away in New Hampshire, he

couldn't put her away in Texas, in Ohio, on Super Tuesday, in

Pennsylvania, in any of these states. We're going to start thinking,

this guy Obama doesn't have the knockout punch, right?

FORD: We look at two things. One, to your question, to try to


answer it specifically, one is how did he do in my state? How did she

do in my state from a vote standpoint? All these elected delegates, no

Democrat or Republican, for that matter most smart Americans have no

clue how Democrats apportion delegates. What they do know is popular vote.

And then, two, you look at whether or not he or she can beat John

McCain in your state and you look a little bit nationally. That will be

the question going forward for Democrats.

My message to my friend Barack Obama tonight is very simple: You

have to win Indiana. You've got to not only win there but you've got to

go on North Carolina and steam roll there as well. I don't know how you

win Indiana, you've got to win it.

SCARBOROUGH: Harold, how do you explain why you give that message


to Barack Obama? Because you and I both know, politicians, they love

winners. They like people that know how to run a campaign, that know

how to raise money, that know how to turn that into votes.

Here, you know, in these cloakrooms, in the Republican cloakroom,

and in the Democratic cloakroom tomorrow morning, people are going to be

saying, this doesn't make sense. He's raising $40 million. He's

outspending her four to one. He's doing that in Texas, Ohio, and

Pennsylvania and he's still losing.

Harold, would you as a politician rather have money or votes? I

take the votes.

FORD: I think a lot of people will take votes. If you look at

though, Barack put together 11 wins in a row in February. He clearly


knows how to do this.

It now becomes just a different game. Everyone's got to step back,

Clinton and Obama, stop complaining about some of these attacks, roll

your sleeves up, talk about these gas prices, talk about jobs, talk

about Iraq, talk about what you will do to overhaul the military. Put

all the criticism and the nonsense and the pettiness aside and go right

after voters.

SCARBOROUGH: OK. And you go right to voters.

Let's talk about Hillary Clinton though. You're Hillary Clinton.

You've won another huge state. CBS has now canceled that debate. If

you are Hillary Clinton, do you get up tomorrow morning and say, you

know what, Barack Obama, you can't win the big states. You talked about


how this should be a campaign of issues, let's have another debate. I

challenge you to a debate once a week between now and Indiana.

FORD: You're spot on. Not only do you challenge him for a debate,

you make clear to your donors, if Barack won't debate me I need more

money to get my message out, to travel across Indiana. I can hear and

read it already coming out in the morning from that campaign. She needs

to do that. But she shouldn't over-read and overstate this victory tonight.

It was expected. He cut into the lead. If I were her, I'd do the

same thing. I'm suggesting she'd need to roll up the sleeves, get in

Indiana, talk about the economy. Tom Brokaw was right earlier. It is

clear the economy is guiding, directing, and dominating the voters'

minds in Indiana, I should say Pennsylvania and Ohio. And more likely


than not, you will see that same focus in Indiana.

SCARBOROUGH: But, you know, Harold, the thing is though, everybody

denied you're hearing on all the channels, everybody is talking about

money. Oh, Barack has all the money. Barack has all the money. He's

got $40 million.

But it seems to me that cuts Hillary Clinton's way in this effect.

I mean, what would you say if you were outspent four to one and you

still won a race and you may won it in double digits, you would say, you

know, he's got all the money, he's got all the advantages and I'm still

winning. What's wrong with that guy? Would you make that argument?

FORD: There's no doubt about it. She will make that argument. You

look at what Mike Huckabee did in Iowa with little money, he won. Money


is critical and there's no doubt about it. Barack will have an

advantage in Indiana. He's got to use it effectively if he wants to

hold on not only to the popular vote lead, but hold on to those

superdelegates who'd been with him.

This is not a cryptic or for that matter even dark message to him.

We're now in a serious joint Democratic primary campaign. He's up

against the most formidable foes and - I should say, challengers in the

Democratic Party in Bill and Hillary Clinton. There's no need to

complain about it. Step forward, lay out your message, put on the

armor, and get ready for what would be another three to four-week fight

for this Democratic nomination.

I think it still good for Democrats though. I think it's great all


of this attention is on us. So, I'm not concerned about that.

SCARBOROUGH: There's no doubt it really is. It is great for the

Democratic Party. People are wringing their hands, this keeps the

attention on two incredibly gifted candidates. But you know what,

Harold Ford? The one thing we learned tonight, you talked about it last

hour, Barack Obama can have all the money in the world, all the money

the Internet can bring in, but unless he does what you did in Tennessee

and rolls up his shirt sleeves and learn to connect with blue-collar

Democrats, he's not going to put Hillary Clinton away. Chris?

FORD: He's got to do better than me because I lost. He's got to do

a little better than me because...

SCARBOROUGH: OK, very good. Chris, I give it back to you.


MATTHEWS: Joe Scarborough and Harold Ford, thanks a lot.

OLBERMANN: Harold, bringing a little voice of reason and some facts

to "spin-sylvania." Let's look now to NBC News political director,

Chuck Todd. He's with us again to talk about pledge delegates by the

numbers. Chuck, what does this mean tonight?

CHUCK TODD, NBC NEWS POLITICAL DIRECTOR: Well, what it means is,

and when you listen to Terry McAuliffe and you heard Joe and Harold

talking about, the pledge delegate count is basically over. If you

could call an election on the delegate count and say, OK, who's going to

have the most pledged delegates at the end of this process.

It now appears like it's going to be impossible for Obama to lose

his lead. And let me show you why. Let me go through some of the


numbers here.

So, tonight, we already know that at her best, she's going to net,

say 14 delegates out of here, maybe she needs it to 16, if the numbers

really ramp up, 18. OK, well, what is his advantage right now in pledge

delegates? He's up 166.

So, let's make this easy. Assume she nets 16 tonight. That would

be 88, you know, 87 to 71, something like that. So then, he's up 150

going into May 6th. On May 6th, we had 566 pledged delegates before

tonight. Now, after May 6th, we're at 408 total left for the rest of

the primary season. She's got to make 150 pledged delegates to do

that. That starts getting up to 69 percent to 70 percent.

But let me take it one step further. Assume that the delegates are


awash on - let's assume the delegates are awash on May 6th in North

Carolina and Indiana. When I say awash, OK, Hillary Clinton net's a

couple out of Indiana, Barack Obama nets a bunch out of North Carolina.

It keeps that pledged delegate lead over 150, maybe even pushes it back

to 160.

Well, suddenly we only have 251 delegates remaining period after May

6th. And she would have to make up 150 pledged delegates in order to

get this lead back and have that talking point with the superdelegates.

Percentage-wise, what does that mean? Eighty percent. She'd have to

win 80 percent of what's left, that's 80 percent.

That's West Virginia, that's Kentucky, that's Montana, that's South

Dakota, that's Oregon. Oregon is a state that Obama is likely to win.


You take that off the table, this number rises to just crazy numbers

that are impossible in this proportional system.

So, if we called things like this and we don't call them, but if we

called things like this, you would say, OK, the pledged delegate count

is over, now, I guess, we focus on the popular vote.

OLBERMANN: All right. But, Chuck, for the sake of clarity, the 80

percent number pertains to what again?

TODD: The 80 percent number is the number of delegates left that

she would have to win after May 6th if we assume that Obama's pledged

delegate lead stays at 150-plus, which is all the estimates are pretty

clear that it will, then, she's got to win 80 percent of the remaining

delegates to somehow get the lead in pledged delegates for those final


contests.

OLBERMANN: Very good. Thanks for double clarifying that one.

Chuck Todd.

Let's bring in NBC's Washington bureau chief, moderator of MEET THE

PRESS, Tim Russert, joining us once again.

And it is, I mean, we used that phrase "spin-sylvania" already. It

is clearly that because this is - if you think exactly about what has

come together over the course of these weeks, the rules of the game have

utterly changed, have been successfully changed by the Clinton campaign

to a point where Terry McAuliffe can say, as his main advertisement in

this interview with Chris a little while ago, that it's the total number

of votes cast in the Democratic primaries. Even though the Democratic


primaries are partially caucuses which reduce vote totals to begin with

on both counts and probably reduce margin according to a study from the

University of Pennsylvania, but also the nominee's not selected based on

the total number of people who vote on a primary system. It's not a

national primary.

RUSSERT: And, Keith, they'll say that the delegates don't count

from Florida and Michigan according to party rules, but the popular vote

should still count. It was Hillary Clinton herself, who said last year

the election in Michigan doesn't count. She said it to National Public

Radio. But it's being revisited as we speak because they need a

rationale to continue this campaign. To be able to say, "We will

continue and go forward because we have a reasonable chance of winning


the nomination."

Here's what we have tonight, Keith, just released, Hillary Clinton's

schedule, April 23 to 26, fresh off the presses, hot off the presses,

going to Indiana, going to North Carolina, trying to give every

indication this campaign continues.

I was talking to someone who understands the game of tennis quite

well and says this is very simple. Obama needs to win match point. He

had his chance tonight. He had his chance in New Hampshire. He had his

chance in Texas. It didn't happen.

Now, it's back to deuce point. He has to win Indiana and North

Carolina in two weeks or it's going to keep on going at least in the

heart and mind of Hillary Clinton.


OLBERMANN: You and I know this from experiences in dealing with

television. The political pros know it from dealing with politics as

you know it from that aspect as well. I imagine, anybody in any line of

work in which a product is marketed understands this, too. It is very

rare that you throw out a new product and in a year's time, completely

wipe out the brand that has been most prominent in your field, whatever

it is, whether it's Democratic politicians or bowling balls - the

number one brand for 15 years.

Is there a consideration in that or - in terms of where the

superdelegates go? Where the momentum goes? Where the money goes? Or

is that suddenly wiped out by the result of what Pennsylvania produces

tonight?


RUSSERT: I don't think it will be, Keith because if you look at

Obama standing with the elected delegates and with the popular vote and

with the money, he has a ready reserve from the Internet. He is going

to stay competitive.

The one interesting thing I heard in the conversation you had with

Harold Ford was that if the margin was big tonight, so big, that could

it cause anxiety with the superdelegates pledged to Barack Obama. I

have not had any indication of that in our reporting thus far. What

will it do to the 350 undecided superdelegates? Will they say, "Let's

keep this playing out, let's see whether or not he can regain his sea

legs post 'bitter,' post Reverend Wright in North Carolina and Indiana

and some of the successive states"?


If he wins both those states, I think, then, people will start

locking this down. If she pulls an upset in Indiana and/or North

Carolina, look out. Then, I think you will have a lot of people

assessing what is wrong here? Why can't this be brought down to closure

by the Obama campaign?

MATTHEWS: Let's just try to explain to the newcomer how the

Democrats pick a candidate for president. We thought it was elected

delegates. Bob Brady of Philadelphia, the city committee chairman said

to me yesterday on television, "the candidate who gets the most elected

delegates and this is the party of Jefferson must be the nominee."

Terry McAuliffe a few moments ago told us, that shouldn't be the

score sheet. The score sheet should be who gets the most popular


votes. However, he did not commit to voting or supporting or throwing

in the towel, I should say, to Barack Obama if he got the most popular

votes. It's not just the Clinton forces continue to change the score

sheet and the scoreboard itself, they reserve the right to do it again

and again and again.

Terry McAuliffe doesn't say that if Barack Obama has the most

popular votes in the primaries and caucuses, he should be the nominee.

He certainly doesn't say if he gets the most elected delegates, he

should be the nominee. He says that if Hillary Clinton can find any

metric by which to justify continuing in the campaign, that will be the

one we focus on that day. Isn't that the argument he's making?

RUSSERT: Yes. Bill Clinton, Hillary Clinton, and Terry McAuliffe


have one thing they want: Hillary Clinton to be the Democratic nominee.

And they'll use any path that's available to get there.

And so, if it means saying to the superdelegates, they call them

automatic delegates, we are the better, stronger nominee against McCain,

forget the elected delegates, forget the popular vote, superdelegates,

automatic delegates, you are put on earth for one purpose, and that is

to be judge, jury and to anoint the strongest candidate and we have her

in Hillary Rodham Clinton.

That's what it is all about - those are the rules according to Bill

Clinton, Hillary Clinton and Terry McAuliffe.

MATTHEWS: Mulligan after mulligan after mulligan.

OLBERMANN: Tim Russert, many thanks.


And yes, it really is not just a moving goalpost but the proverbial

movable feast of goalposts. You put it anywhere you want. And remember

- and the other thing about is, as much as we might look at it with

astonishment or you know, amazement maybe that especially in that -

that core group of women supporters, that group we mentioned earlier,

that is so adherent to Hillary Clinton, this particular action of moving

the goalpost, the actual act of redefining the game as it goes along, is

perceived as one of her greatest strengths. This is her as a leader and

as a (INAUDIBLE).

MATTHEWS: Really?

OLBERMANN: Of course it is. This is part of the process of

fighting back against the odds against her, no matter what the odds are.


MATTHEWS: I think the women have probably been harmed over the

years by men who have changed the goalpost to their disadvantage. My

guess, look again in history.

OLBERMANN: OK. I'm not disputing that. I'm saying, this is seen

as the reverse of that, the writing (ph) of that in many cases.

MATTHEWS: Yes, could be. Let's take a look now. Let's go back to

David Gregory and the RACE FOR THE WHITE HOUSE panel.

GREGORY: Thank you very much, Chris.

Let's pick up on this point, Rachel, the arguments now to the

superdelegates are what matter. What are those arguments on both sides?

MADDOW: The argument from Hillary Clinton's campaign is that she is

the one who knows how to fight against Republicans, who has been beaten


up by Republicans for her entire public career. She survived it all and

therefore, she is really the only one who can beat McCain because she's

the only one who knows what's coming down the pike. Barack Obama is too

naive and too unappealing a character.

GREGORY: But why is this a positive judgment for her? What she

wants to demonstrate by beating Barack Obama is that he can't close, he

can't win, he doesn't have the breadth of the base to be able to win

these big states. It's not a pro-Clinton argument, is it?

MADDOW: No, it's not. But she had a case to say, Barack Obama

doesn't have what it takes to lead the country and fix the country's

problems. That's not the case she's made. She is saying, "This guy

can't beat Republicans." They're actually making two totally separate


arguments.

Barack Obama is not talking about who is best suited to beat the

Republicans. He's even conceding that maybe this is toughening him up a

little bit. But I think that Keith's point is actually really right.

One of the things that is most appealing to Democrats about Hillary

Clinton is the fighter thing. That's not just something that appeals...

GREGORY: She's a brawler. She's engaged (INAUDIBLE).

MADDOW: But it's not just a working class thing. It's also

Democrats are afraid that Republicans always beat them because they

don't fight back hard enough. She feels like she's a bar brawler.

BUCHANAN: Not only be able to argue to the superdelegates, you've

got to persuade them. And the most persuadable case that Hillary


Clinton can make is: Look, Barack Obama cannot win Pennsylvania.

Everything is going for him, money, 35,000 people out there. He

couldn't win Ohio. He didn't win Michigan. He can't win Florida.

That's where this election is going to be decided. You know it and

I know it. You know the advantages he got and he couldn't do it. And

we can. Despite our so-called disadvantages. That is why,

superdelegates, I've won the popular vote. That's why you've got to

give us the nomination. We'll put him on the ticket.

That's her case.

GREGORY: Let me Gene in here with this question: Is there a

disadvantage for Barack Obama? He faces an issue like Reverend Wright.

What does he do? He engages it head on but makes larger arguments. He


didn't just feed the sound byte in the speeches. He made the larger

argument about understanding black frustration in the country,

understanding black rage within communities, trying to put Reverend

Wright in context. It was a different type of politics. He has

transformed the politics of this campaign, but is he not putting up

enough fight?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: That is who he is, I think and that was seen as a

fairly successful way of dealing with Reverend Wright.

GREGORY: This is the first vote since that...

ROBINSON: This is the first vote, but again, if you look at the

polls back then she was 16 points ahead and it doesn't look like he is

going to lose by 16 points. So clearly he made up some ground.


But look, unless you envision some sort of flood of super delegates

to Hillary Clinton in the next week or two based on this result, then

where is this heading? This is a - this turns into a war of attrition

in which he is ahead and Chuck explained...

PAT BUCHANAN: What they're hoping for is a pause - what they're

hoping for is a pause in the decision making process in the super

delegates and persuading them that this guy is Adlai Stevenson,

beautiful speeches, he just can't close a deal. He's got no knock out...

ROBINSON: You can pause it, you can freeze the super delegates, but

unless she can beat him in North Carolina then we can have this

conversation again. But if she can't do that I don't see how she

leapfrogs.


GREGORY: Rachel, let's put the argument around on its head. This

guy came out of nowhere in Pennsylvania to - let's use the "Rocky"

analogy correctly here. He actually went the distance in Pennsylvania.

If you remember from "Rocky" and I have seen the film 75 times, he gets

into bed with Adrian the night before and he says I realize I can't

win. That is not the point. I want to show that I can go the

distance. Obviously he thinks that he can win, but in this case, he

went the distance in Pennsylvania and pulled within, we'll see what the

margin is but to get close enough, he came from way behind. Is that not

an argument that he continues to make to the super delegates to say,

look, she is dying kind of a slow death politically?

RACHEL: Yeah. He makes that, in addition to talking about the


fund-raising. The fact that she is broke right now in the campaign

doesn't say a lot to her electability either. What he needs to be

saying is, listen, in these big states that Pat keeps listing, sure,

when it's two Democrats dividing the electorate I'm not always winning.

I'm winning the overall raise; I'm winning pledge delegates; I'm winning

the money race: I'm winning the enthusiasm race. I have a better

chance against John McCain. They are all talking about Republicans.

They're not talking about winning over white ethnic voters (INAUDIBLE).

BUCHANAN: Why can't you beat Hillary Clinton with all her negatives?

You got more money, the biggest crowds in history. You got the

enthusiasm. Every guy in the media says you are the nominee and you

can't beat her (INAUDIBLE)


RACHEL: There is no connection between his inability to beat Hillary

Clinton and whether or not he can beat John McCain, two totally

different types of reason.

BUCHANAN: (INAUDIBLE) the Marxist dialectic. Look, you may believe

right now that this thing is over, but there is a lot of these of super

delegates got to be sitting there saying, if I were a super delegate for

Barack, I would say, I'm worried. Can this guy beat McCain because I

don't know right now.

(CROSSTALK)

ROBINSON: If he can't beat her among Democrats it doesn't mean he

can't beat John McCain in the wider electorate. It doesn't mean that.

BUCHANAN: It means you are weaker than Hillary in Pennsylvania,


doesn't it? Yes.

GREGORY: All right, let me get one last question before Keith goes

to the (INAUDIBLE) because I don't want to be on the receiving end of

that. Is the issue with super delegates, will they not see an attempt

by the Clinton campaign to look for any metric to justify their victory?

BUCHANAN: Sure.

GREGORY: Will they not see through the idea of the popular vote

being (INAUDIBLE) .

RACHEL: That is a positive. I think that they look at that and they

say any tactic is OK. Any metric is OK. That's the kind of fighter

that we want. I think that's Hillary Clinton's one of her biggest pluses.

BUCHANAN: In the last analysis, these guys are intelligent guys.


They know the damage done to the party if they take this away from

Barack, but they also want to win. You got to persuade these guys and

they are going to be very tough to persuade if he is ahead in pledge

delegates and she is not ahead in popular votes to take it away from

him. Unless they really have the powerful argument, an overwhelming

argument I don't think they will move. They don't have it yet. But

I'll tell you, they got doubts in their mind right there tonight about

whether this guy Barack Obama can do it.

GREGORY: We are going to leave it there for now. Gentlemen, back to

you.

CHRIS MATTHEWS, MSNBC CORRESPONDENT: Thank you David. Senator Claire

McCaskill of Missouri supports Barack Obama for president. She joins us


tonight from Washington. Senator McCaskill, how do you read the results

so far because I've got some tough questions for you?

SEN. CLAIRE McCASKILL (D) MISSOURI: Well, I think that we always

knew that Hillary Clinton was going to win. Frankly, we talked about

double digits for most of this campaign. I think Barack Obama has

closed the margin significantly. This is a tailor-made state for

Hillary Clinton. She not only has the institutional support of old-line

Democrats. She has the institutional support as you talked about so many

times, Chris, of Ed Rendell and the two mayors. This was a very tough,

tough state for Barack Obama. Now, what we've got to wait and see is

how many net delegates she comes out with.

MATTHEWS: Here's a couple critiques I have of the campaign that he's


waged in Pennsylvania. Let me ask you to respond to both of them. The

first is, an opportunity lost. In the last couple of days, the SEIU,

the service employees, have been running a very good campaign ad on

behalf of Barack Obama making a case she doesn't make for himself. The

campaign ad basically says this country is run by the special interests,

by the oil companies. We're getting screwed and somebody's got to stand

up against them and they say it is Barack Obama. I don't hear that kind

of strong, stark radical language, maybe we should say populist language

coming from him. Why not?

McCASKILL: Well, I think that there frankly because of the math, I

think there has been a hope that we could wind this up without getting

too tough on Senator Clinton.


MATTHEWS: Not on Hillary, on the Republican opposition right now.

Why doesn't he run as a change agent when it comes to the hard case he

has to make against the Republicans? It is too debonair, it's too Fred

Astaire. It's too (INAUDIBLE). He doesn't seem to make a sharp critique

of the way things are in a way that grabs the working guy and working

woman. Hillary seems to be doing a better job of sympathizing with how

upset they are with their economic plight it seems to me.

McCASKILL: I think that's frankly in how you perceive how Barack

Obama talks about these issues. I think he is pretty good at pot roast

and potatoes. I think he's pretty good at talking about the real issues

that face American families at the kitchen table every month when it

doesn't come out even. I think he has - I think most Americans get that


he is not an elite candidate based on the path he has traveled to this

place. So I disagree that he hasn't hit on those themes. I think it is

very hard to go up against the institutional support that Hillary

Clinton had there and the fact that no independent voters can weigh-in

in Pennsylvania.

MATTHEWS: In the beginning of the campaign, they are going to talk

to working people about their parents and everybody works out - there's

middle age, whatever. They have to worry about their parents and Social

Security, worry about if it is going to be there when they get there.

Everybody knows the system needs to be fixed up. Barack Obama supports

a raising of the cap to pay for Social Security so that the senior

citizen gets better break. He gets a lifetime commitment of Social


Security benefits and no cost to the senior citizen, to the average

person. I didn't hear him talking about this. Chaka Fatah (ph) said

this was going to be a big part of his campaign in Pennsylvania to reach

the older voter who was voting for Hillary. I didn't hear him do it.

Why didn't he deliver with a real economic bread and butter meat and

potatoes message as you put it to working people, especially older

people? I didn't hear it.

McCASKILL: Well, I think frankly it's hard to campaign on Social

Security because the American people don't feel the urgency that it's

going away or that there is a major problem. I think the urgency

everybody feels right now is gas prices. I think the urgency everybody

feels right now is college education and health care and he did talk a


lot about those three things and he will continue to talk about those.

The important thing is that we not lose sight of which candidate in this

race has energized an incredible number of people in this country.

Which candidate has really lifted people up and made them believe that

we could change Washington? That is what Barack Obama has done in this

election. He has opened up a very wide lead in the national Democratic

polls. He still polls better against John McCain in all national

polling. And so going forward I think the super delegates really have

not - do not have any compelling reason to really give the back of

their hand to all these states and all these voters who have behind

Barack Obama.

MATTHEWS: So you're happy - you think he has been sufficiently


populist, sufficiently cutting in his critique of the way things are in

this country? You are confident that he has enough edge to his message?

McCASKILL: You know, Chris, his style is who he is. And one thing

that Barack Obama is going to be is authentic. Barack Obama is not

going to get sidetracked over what the polls say or what some consultant

says. He is going to be true to who he is. And I would never advise

him to quit doing that because in the end, the biggest problem we've had

is making sure that we remain authentic to what we believe in and who

were are, instead of just being what we need to be today to win an

election.

MATTHEWS: I just wonder if what beat Alan Keyes is going to beat

John McCain, much less Hillary Clinton. I just don't see the sharpness


of the message.

McCASKILL: I think what you will see, you'll see a sharper pivot

against John McCain because he will not be as focused about bringing us

all together in our party. I think he wants to make sure that he

doesn't step on anyone's toes. There is a lot of passion for Hillary

Clinton for all the right reasons. He wants to make sure that he

doesn't bruise that and that he can fold that in as a strong nominee

going forward. But I predict that you will be pleased with how hard

he'll pivot against John McCain when it is time to unite this country,

not just our party.

MATTHEWS: Thank you very much, Senator Claire McCaskill,

Missouri. Thank you.


McCASKILL: Thank you.

KEITH OLBERMANN, MSNBC CORRESPONDENT: You just mentioned Alan Keyes

and 44 guys in our MSNBC control room pitched right forward over the

desk. We are awaiting at perhaps as early as five minutes from now

Senator Clinton's speech from Indiana. We're also awaiting of course

most importantly her margin of victory, sorry from Philadelphia, most

importantly her margin of victory which as you see is at that quarter

poll mark or almost or so is at about 8 percent. Right now we have new

numbers from our exit polling on how each candidate supporters feel

about the other candidate in a potential general election, there

certainly will be a general election against John McCain and for that to

Nora O'Donnell. Nora.


NORA O'DONNELL, MSNBC CORRESPONDENT: This is really interesting.

With Hillary Clinton winning tonight, we wanted to look ahead to the

fall election, essentially gauge how much this contentious Democratic

primary race has divided the party. Now overall, 71 percent said they

would be satisfied if Hillary Clinton wins the nomination, 64 percent

for Obama. These satisfaction levels are very similar to what we saw in

Ohio. Also as we saw in previous states, Clinton supporters would be

more unhappy with the idea of Obama as their nominee than Obama

supporters would be if Clinton became the party's standard bearer. In

fact, six out of 10 Clinton voters say they would not be satisfied with

him. Only about half of the Obama voters would be dissatisfied with her

as the nominee.


Our NBC news poll specifically asked Clinton and Obama voters what

they would do if their preferred candidate did not win the nomination

and they were faced with the following choice, support for the other

Democrat or vote for John McCain or stay home. First as you see here,

only 53 percent of Clinton voters said they would vote for Barack Obama;

that is stunning, only 53 percent and when you look essentially at Obama

voters, 69 percent., 69 percent, said they would vote for Hillary

Clinton if she ends up the nominee against John McCain.

Interestingly in both of those sets, more than 10 percent say they

would rather not vote for anyone if their candidate does not win the

nomination. They would rather sit home essentially. And what about

those new voters that we were talking about, remember, more than 300,000


new Democratic voters in Pennsylvania today? Check out this number, 29

percent of those new voters said they would not vote for Hillary Clinton

in November. Chris and Keith we're looking at a very polarized

electorate, especially among those new voters who turned out today.

OLBERMANN: And of course, we are looking at it in the middle of a

civil war and the irony I guess here is that, thanks to Nora, if there

was a point at which that civil started among the Democrats, it probably

was the day that Obama said matter of factly he was confident that he

would get her supporters but he was not sure that his supporters would

go if she was the nominee and it turns out statistically at least in

Pennsylvania at least, that it's the other way around. But that was

probably the starting point of all this.


MATTHEWS: The young voters are the ones that people are worried

about in Pennsylvania, the Democratic chairs are worried that they did

get 300,000 voters as a windfall. A good portion of them are

Republicans switching over and they want to hold them because it would

be a perfect solution if they got all the Hillary voters and all the

Barack voters and took them all into the election booths in November

they would win. But that doesn't look like it's going to happen that

neatly.

OLBERMANN: Sprinkle dust from the clouds to do that, a malathion

thing if you've ever been to Southern California. We are expecting

Hillary Clinton to address her supporters in Philadelphia within the

next few minutes. Up next, NBC's Brian Williams and Tim Russert will


join us to talk about the Clinton victory tonight in Pennsylvania, where

this race goes from here. We await the margin of victory for Senator

Clinton. So important on this of all nights. MSNBC's continuing

coverage of the Pennsylvania primary.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

OLBERMANN: We rejoin you with MSNBC's coverage of the Pennsylvania

primary which our projection suggests will be won tonight by Hillary

Clinton. The issue of course now is the margin of victory. Brian

Williams is of course the anchor of "NBC Nightly News" He's with us for

the first time tonight, along with NBC's Washington bureau chief and

moderator of "Meet the Press" Tim Russert who rejoins us. And

gentlemen, Brian, let me start with you on this in particular. Those


numbers that we heard in the exit polls coming right out suggests, what

does it suggest? It is a snapshot in a middle of a fierce battle that so

many of Obama supporters say they would not support Clinton and vice

versa or is it more telling in terms of the Democratic chances in November?

BRIAN WILLIAMS, NBC CORRESPONDENT: Well, Tim and I and I should

explain Keith as usual, what we've been doing all night is updating

these rotating feeds of nightly news as the time zones go west. That's

why I couldn't join you until now. Tim and I have been keying on that

number. So you voted for whoever you voted for in Pennsylvania

tonight. Who do you ultimately see as the nominee of your party? That's

such a fascinating disconnect always and kind of a cognitive dissonance.

People get past the election. They are making whatever statement,


placing whatever vote they feel they need to d yet they have their own

opinion as to how this all ends. And my favorite theory about tonight

as we go through these states, all these primaries, it is like mini

tornadoes, very intense low-pressure systems. Think about how the

primary process changes each state as it moves through. Pennsylvania is

now altered politically because of all this happened. Bucks County

started this process Republican. It is now considered a Democratic

county. Montgomery County, Philadelphia suburb, ditto, went from

majority Republican registration to majority Democrat because of these

new voters. In that way this has kind of changed the political landscape.

OLBERMANN: And Tim, is - with that as a given, this number here

that we are talking about, perhaps three of 10, depending on which one


of the numbers it is, a little more, a little less, three of 10

Democrats are not satisfied with the prospect of that other, whoever it

is, Obama or Clinton getting the nomination. Is that the number that we

are looking at here in this case as we're seeing they are dissatisfied

with the other Democrat, 62 percent Clinton, 52 percent in terms of

Obama. Is that the valid number or is it the fact that so many of them

in the middle of this sometimes awful fight would be satisfied with the

other candidate the one they are working as hard as they possibly can to

defeat?

TIM RUSSERT, NBC CORRESPONDENT: No. It is a very valid number

Keith. John McCain started off post primary with a really divided

Republican Party and now head to head against Hillary Clinton. He is


getting 90 percent of Republicans. And so the concern amongst Democrats

is this is going to go on for two more weeks at least. If Hillary

Clinton wins Indiana, it goes all the way to the first of June. When do

you have time to heal this party and can you ever put it back together

again? Watching you and Chris talk about the fact that more Obama voters

would support Clinton than Clinton voters support Obama I thought to

myself Terry McAuliffe is going to jump on that and say to the super

delegates you see, Obama voters are more willing to support Hillary so

we should nominate Hillary. Look for any opportunity to take advantage

of that.

MATTHEWS: The question there ignores the fact of how Hillary would

win. Were Hillary to win Tom and Brian, Tim and Brian, by not getting


the most elected delegates, I'm not sure you could assume that those

Barack voters would be open to backing Hillary Clinton in November if it

looked like she stole it.

RUSSERT: Chris, I was in Denver last week and talked to a whole lot

of people and painted out various - laid out various scenarios and what

would happen if one candidate had more elected delegates, popular vote,

one more contest, but the super delegates decided that another candidate

would be stronger and denied the nomination to the guy with more elected

delegates. And there was a walkout of his delegates. Every one of them

put their heads down and started shaking, saying I don't think we could

recover. In the same vein, Barack Obama, if he is the nominee needs

those voters that Hillary Clinton has been attracting in these big


states order to beat John McCain. He can afford to lose Ohio and

Florida if he can hold Pennsylvania and Michigan and pick up Colorado

and Virginia. And so this is the game that is being mapped out in the

minds of both campaigns tonight.

One other thing, we talked about money. I just got an e-mail on the

blackberry from the Hillary Clinton campaign which was sent out to the

world which says thank you, Pennsylvania, keep the momentum going.

Contribute $5, $5. Because tomorrow they want to wake up and say do you

know how many Americans gave us money last night? This campaign is alive

and well. On to Indiana, on to North Carolina.

OLBERMANN: I thought you were going to say they only needed $5.

Brian, about this issue of they can't live with each other, they can't


live without each other. Is it necessarily going to bring back for the

umpteenth time but with some sense of urgency, the prospect that one

would run for president and the other would run for vice president?

WILLIAMS: Well, our friend Charlie Gibson tried that last week. The

"New York Times" took a good long thumb sucker look at it this morning.

It's everybody's so-called dream team. But I look back as you do Keith

on American history as Tim does, as Chris does. I look at, you know, I

look at Kennedy/Johnson. I look at all the things Lyndon Johnson said

about President Kennedy said Kennedy said about him, even how they were

serving together in the White House. I don't see a modern parallel to

this, I'll tell you. I look at the staffs. I look at the two

individuals and I, look, this is all new territory here. None of us


would have foreseen this a year ago, so never say never and that is one

of the great reasons why I'm not in the prognostication business. But I

join the millions of Americans who just cannot see that possibility.

OLBERMANN: Tim, it's got to be broached and if it is not, presumably

it's back to something we talked about before, is there an alternate

Obama for Clinton to say here's my vice president or alternate Clinton

for Obama to say here's my vice president, somebody who comes in and

unifies at some point to use surrogate in the other meaning of the word.

RUSSERT: You're right. Keith, we don't know what the landscape is

going to look like in Denver in August, just how badly broken this party

might be. It may come to a situation where people have to bite their

lip very hard and say I don't really want this. I don't particularly


like this in either of the campaigns. But at least we have to make the

offer and hope it's turned down. When you look at John Kerry selecting

John Edwards or Ronald Reagan selecting George Herbert Walker Bush,

those were not warm, fuzzy relationships. But they were a political

necessity at the time.

Now I think this campaign has been a little bit different than those

because Senator Clinton has suggested that she passes the commander in

chief test and so does John McCain, but she finds Barack Obama wanting.

Barack Obama has said he is going to change the tone. He is going to

turn the page on the Bushes and the Clintons. So I think both of them

have laid down markers which make it hard to be able to go to their

constituents and to go to the country and say what I said in the


primary, I was just joshing.

MATTHEWS: I've got to underline what Tim said just in terms of

listening to what the candidates have said publicly. Lyndon Johnson

never said that Richard Nixon was more prepared or as prepared as John

Kennedy to be president. George Herbert Walker Bush never, never said

that Michael Dukakis was the match of him in the Reagan campaign. I mean

there is no precedent for what Hillary Clinton has done in this

campaign, to say that she and John McCain are eligible and fit for the

presidency, but her opponent in the primaries, excuse me. It's not. It

just an amazing precedent we are setting here in terms of rivalry. This

is serious stuff. That is why I just sneezed. I don't know what

brought that on.


WILLIAMS?: What do you need? Are you all right?

MATTHEWS: No.

WILLIAMS: It is so fun to be on television with this guy. We see

precedents right and left. That was kind of cool. Anyway, I look at

these two and if you cover this stuff long enough and spend enough time

in this business, you end up knowing the available pool of staff members

as most of us in this conversation now do. They're all members of our

generation or five years off and boy, the antipathy goes so deep into

the roots, the DNA, the family tree. But Chris, I was listening to your

conversation with Ed Rendell so closely tonight. He took a little

something off his slider when he talked about party unity and when they

could get together and how quickly in his eyes, he gave you a date


certain where he thinks the party will commence Kumbaya.

MATTHEWS: But the (INAUDIBLE) question here, for this whole

question of getting together in the end, the Clintons and both of them

have to get in this deal with Barack Obama, is we don't know whether the

Clintons both of them want Barack Obama to win the general election

should he be the nominee. If we don't know it, you can bet that Barack

Obama doesn't know the answer. If you don't know the answer to that

question, why would you entertain putting her on the ticket? It makes no

sense.

RUSSERT: They, of course, will insist that they will be for the

Democratic Party wholeheartedly and don't want to take the political

risk if Obama is nominated to be the cause of his defeat because if he


did lose, she wants to stay viable for 2012. I think that the real

problem that we are confronting is if Hillary Clinton is going to win

this nomination, it is only by persuading the super delegates to pick

her despite the fact that Obama has won more elected delegates and more

popular vote. And the only way she can do that is by convincing them

she wins, Obama loses. And so the not so subtle message is he can't

win. He's a loser. If that doesn't work and she is not able to wrest

the nomination away, how do you unite that party after that kind of

three month internecine civil war?

OLBERMANN: And never mind what the personal risk to her is if she

does not then win or he does not then win after a split Democratic

Party. It's extraordinary, Brian Williams, thank you, Tim Russert,


thank you, Tom Brokaw, thank you.

We are expecting Hillary Clinton's speech in Philadelphia to

celebrate her victory in the Pennsylvania primary. We are expecting of

course to hear something about this margin of victory. This could be

coming up very shortly, certainly in the next hour when Chris and I

return with MSNBC's coverage of the primary.

KEITH OLBERMANN, MSNBC ANCHOR: Two hours after the polls close in

Pennsylvania, NBC News has projected Hillary Clinton as the winner in the

Keystone State. At this hour, with now 48 percent of precincts reporting,

nearly half the vote in, it is Senator Clinton by 54 percent to Barack Obama's

46, right in the middle of that eight percent, what do they do now zone? Still

to be determined tonight, exactly how large the Clinton margin of victory will


actually be, exactly how much money her in-debt campaign might be able raise

off the victory and what it all means exactly in this extraordinary and

continuing fight for the Democratic presidential nomination.

Alongside Chris Matthews, I'm Keith Olbermann here at MSNBC and NBC

News World Headquarters in New York. We continue our coverage of the

Pennsylvania primary. One of the issues still most pertinent to those

questions we just raised, the geography of what has been reported in

Pennsylvania. What is that 48 percent vote? Where did it come from? Let's go

to Chuck Todd, our MSNBC/NBC News political director, with the numbers and by

the numbers. Chuck, what do we have?

CHUCK TODD, NBC NEWS POLITICAL DIRECTOR: Keith, I want to show you

where we don't have any vote yet. This is important as we are watching the


returns come in. Where we don't have vote is in the Philadelphia media market,

outside the actual city of Philadelphia, which is reporting already 63 percent,

which, by the way, Obama is only winning 60/40 in Philadelphia. There were

some projections he had to get to 65 or 70 if he really wanted to make a win.

But he is only getting 60 there.

We have - literally, you have in Bucks County, just six percent

reporting. In Chester, we still have zero coming in. Montgomery County, the

big enchilada of those suburbs, the suburban county we love to talk about, a

big goose egg so far coming in. Lancaster, the county I was pointing out to

you earlier, a zero. York, Zero. York could be Clinton territory.

Then, as far as a big county that is left that hasn't reported a lot of

results, we have Westmoreland here in the Pittsburgh suburbs, zero. That is


supposed to be a Clinton county. When you put it all together, it looks like

in these suburbs there might be a little more Obama vote out than Clinton vote

out of this remaining 52 percent of precincts that we are waiting to be

counted.

For those watching this margin, we're sitting at eight points; that

would suggest that maybe it inches down a point or two. But Clinton has been

doing better in Philadelphia and early indications in the suburbs, she's been

doing better than some folks expected there. It looks like we are in that

mushy area that we talked about, in the five to nine range, where the campaigns

have to fight each other to try to figure what it all means.

OLBERMANN: You sound like a weather man on one of the stations in

Philadelphia when you talk like that. That's exactly the point, the arrow


would be pointing down. However, those the projections or results out of

Philadelphia, as you suggest, are slightly better for Senator Clinton. Are

they better enough, if they hold in the Philadelphia region, the metro area -

are they enough to offset and not significantly change those total numbers of

her percentage win in the state?

TODD: It is possible, but it does looks like there is still more

actual vote out there sitting that will slightly lean Obama. Look, we'll wait

until these come in and we'll see. But it still looks like there is slightly -

one more word on that Philadelphia; sometimes machines are good at getting out

the vote and running up the score. Now you wonder how important were Rendell

and Nutter. If Obama's margin in Philadelphia really stays 60/40, that is the

story and that shows you how valuable Ed Rendell and Michael Nutter really were


to Hillary Clinton, because they may have held down Obama's margins out of

there.

OLBERMANN: So everything else, the great rural area between the major -

-

TODD: A lot of it has reported in. But, again, we'll - I was

focusing on the big counties, as I was showing you, because that is where a lot

of the vote is still left.

OLBERMANN: Do we have Pittsburgh?

TODD: We have a lot of Pittsburgh. A majority of Allegheny has gone

in. That's has been a Clinton county. She has been winning that about 57/43

the last I checked. It is - a lot of her vote, at least in the western part,

has been coming in. The southeastern part, as we told you, would be slow,


particularly Montgomery County. It is true. Montgomery County counting very,

very slowly.

OLBERMANN: Our MSNBC and NBC News political director, Chuck Todd, by

the numbers. As we wait to determine the margin, it is largely the

Philadelphia story yet to come. Carey Grant warming up in the bullpen.

Let's go to Howard Fineman at the campaign listening point. Again, now

past the 50 percent mark, in terms of actual vote, and an eight percent

margin. We know already that there are some boasts of how much money came in

immediately to the Clinton campaign as soon as this was called. What else are

we hearing from the campaigns, Howard?

HOWARD FINEMAN, "NEWSWEEK": That is the focus now for Hillary, the

money and the super delegates. But I think western Pennsylvania is the story


for her, Keith. I was just talking to friends of mine out in places where

they're counting the votes in Pittsburgh and Allegheny county. She is swinging

big there with 2/3 of the vote in. She is even winning bigger in the collar

counties around Pittsburgh. Those are the real deer hunter counties, 60

percent or more. She's got the deer hunter vote and the white working women's

vote in downtown Pittsburgh.

So, it's the women in downtown Pittsburgh and their cousins and

brothers out in the countryside. They are giving her massive margins, which is

why she is going to give this victory speech tonight.

OLBERMANN: This news out of Philadelphia seems to have mixed messages

for Senator Clinton, that there is a better performance in the city itself, but

that those numbers are not expected to be favorable for her in the general


area - as Chuck put it, the TV market, have yet to come in. Is there an

assessment. Do they have an expectation?

I guess what I'm asking for, it is eight percent. It is right at that

margin we were talking about long before the polls closed. Do they expect this

will hold? Do they expect it will get smaller? Do they expect it will get

bigger?

FINEMAN: They think it is going to be around that. The key is Obama

is doing very well in suburbs, in affluent suburbs around Philadelphia and

increasingly in Pittsburgh, too. I think Obama did a little better in

Allegheny county, which is not just the city of Pittsburgh but the suburbs of

Pittsburgh. Obama did better there, I think, than some of the locals

expected. But that is counteracted by the rural vote in the counties around


there.

So Obama made this probably within single digits by doing well enough

in the suburban areas of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. And after all, that's

sort of the heart of the country for Obama, better educated, suburban voters,

plus the African-American vote in the cities, which is important in

Philadelphia, but not so much in Pittsburgh.

OLBERMANN: Howard, as we wait for Senator Clinton to speak in

Philadelphia, I think we have a Pittsburgh versus Philadelphia argument about

to ensue. Chris Matthews was shaking his head.

FINEMAN: Don't worry. We won't have to do this beyond tonight,

Keith.

OLBERMANN: Oh, right. It wasn't another sneeze coming.


CHRIS MATTHEWS, MSNBC ANCHOR: All this talk, I heard Chuck, about the

power of Eddie Rendell and Michael Nutter; in Philadelphia anybody knows the

city is divided. Of course, you go to south Philly; Hillary Clinton will do

very well there against Barack Obama. Northeast Philly, where I'm from,

Hillary Clinton will do very well against Barack Obama there. Yes, there are

liberals downtown, who might vote a different way. It isn't the power of the

big shots. It's the people telling their ward leaders how they want to vote

and committee people.

This is a grass roots campaign. We are picking a president here.

Nobody is going to tell you how to vote for president. Sure, they can organize

better, get the vote out, perhaps move people around. But in the end - Howard

you know this. You know Philadelphia. And I have to tell you, the idea it


would be about 60 percent is not a big surprise. The fact that there are some

white liberals who will join the African-American support for Barack Obama is

known, certainly down in Centre City and Society Hill, and some of the other

areas in the northeast.

But generally, we know there are a lot of regular people in the

northeast who are going to see Hillary Clinton as the hometown girl. She was

up there the other day campaigning as a hometown girl. It doesn't surprise me

it's about 60 to 65 percent for Barack in Philadelphia. He'll be lucky to get

anywhere near 70. It's not because of Michael Nutter or Ed Rendell. It's

because that's how people think.

As somebody once said to me in this campaign, a lot of people in this

campaign decided how to vote back in 1957. They have thought about how to vote


and they are going to vote this way. A lot of this is neighborhood, a lot of

it.

FINEMAN: She wasn't the hometown gal in western Pennsylvania, Chris.

But she did strongly there, especially in the counties around Pittsburgh. That

really is the classic deer hunter country that we have been talking about.

MATTHEWS: She had a gun, didn't she? Wasn't she one of those women

raised to use a gun? I read that?

FINEMAN: All politics is a game of comparison, Chris. Compared with

Barack Obama, she seemed in those counties to be the one closer to the heart of

those Democratic voters.

MATTHEWS: I meant hometown girl metaphorically. She certainly came

from Scranton, to the extent she spent her summers there.


FINEMAN: I'm being overly specific.

MATTHEWS: She came across as - I really buy the argument - maybe I

made it first - that this - getting a tough fight with Barack Obama has made

Hillary more middle class, tougher more Marcy Kaptur, more the woman from the

neighborhood than she ever has before. We are waiting now for Hillary Clinton

to address her supporters in Philadelphia.

With us now is Lisa Caputo, who knows Hillary very well. She was her

press secretary when Hillary Clinton was first lady, and is senior adviser in

the campaign now. Your sense, if it eight percent, or close to it, is that a

big win for Hillary, Lisa?

LISA CAPUTO, CLINTON CAMPAIGN ADVISER: Absolutely, Chris. I have been

amazed tonight watching the coverage tonight. She doesn't get the credit; a


win is a win here. Eight percent is significant. I think the one thing that

nobody is talking about tonight, which is an important point, and I said it

before on your air, and I was reminded again in a conversation I had with

someone inside the Clinton campaign earlier, what you see tonight is the sheer

grit of the candidate, the sheer grit of Hillary Clinton.

She has overcome all kinds of obstacles here, in particular everybody

is counting her out. She has to win by double digits or she's done. The fact

of the matter is she is coming out here with a significant victory, which

should slingshot her to Indiana, and should also give her the ability to raise

money. Now she has arguments to make to the super delegates, that being that

questions about Obama's electability, raising questions in voters' minds and

super delegates' minds about whether or not he can really beat McCain, since he


can't win a battleground state. And also her ability to put the issues front

and center on the economy.

MATTHEWS: Wasn't this the case in reverse back when Senator Obama won

the South Carolina primary. Didn't the Clinton forces, led by the former

president, sort of discredit that victory by saying, it is just another victory

by somebody like Jesse Jackson? It doesn't count that much.

CAPUTO: I don't think the Clinton campaign discredited the victory. I

think, again, a victory is a victory. What is important to note here is he

can't seem to win a battleground state. The battleground states are the big

states you have to win in a general election, which raises the question of what

if his electability possibility against Senator McCain? I think you can't

discount the fact that Senator Clinton has won those key states. Those are the


states Democrats have to win in a general election.

I think tonight is a big night for her. As I said, earlier it will

help her raise money. It will help her slingshot into Indiana. I think it

will put some questions in the minds of the super delegates. I think super

delegates are going to hit the pause button and say, wait a minute. How come

Barack Obama can't seem to close the deal.

MATTHEWS: Thank you, Lisa Caputo with the Clinton campaign.

CAPUTO: Nice to see you, Chris.

OLBERMANN: Let's sling it back, to use that phrase from Lisa, to our

panel - to our RACE FOR THE WHITE HOUSE panel. David Gregory standing by with

them and I will keep the bell sheathed for the moment.

DAVID GREGORY, MSNBC ANCHOR: We are waiting for Hillary Clinton to


address her supporters. We will keep a close eye on that for all our viewers

at home. Gene, to pick up on this conversation, it is the new argument in this

race that Hillary Clinton makes. She likes to say, and we may hear tonight,

that this was a gritty victory in Pennsylvania.

She is still alive. The end game is not different for her. She needs

a new way to capture momentum. As Chuck Todd laid out, it is not the fight for

pledge delegates. That is effectively over for her.

EUGENE ROBINSON, "THE WASHINGTON POST": If she is not going to win in

pledged delegates, it is really a battle of perceptions at this point. She is

trying to get the super delegates and I guess the Democratic party to perceive

her as the stronger candidate against John McCain. I don't quite know how she

does that, to the extent that she overcomes his lead in pledged delegates.


As Pat pointed out earlier, you get to the convention, he is still

ahead in pledge delegates. It is hard to see the convention giving her the

nomination.

GREGORY: Pat, this is provocative point; Hillary Clinton wants to

force something that would be very difficult for super delegates. We have seen

them make the comment that they don't want to be decisive in this race. It's

why so many of them are hanging back. She wants to force these super delegates

to make this judgment in her favor that is not based on pledged delegates. It

has to be based on something else. It may be based a qualitative judgment

about who best can face John McCain. That is ultimately what she wants to

force their hand to do.

PAT BUCHANAN, MSNBC POLITICAL ANALYST: That's exactly right. It is


very, very difficult to do, even if you are persuaded that she is stronger, to

go out there and rip this nomination away from Barack Obama, after all the

youth and fire and enthusiasm. That's almost dooming the Democratic party.

But let me say this, I am astounded by Norah O'Donnell's figures; 52

percent of Clinton's voters won't vote for Barack Obama? I can't believe that,

quite frankly. What it does suggest is we are reaching a Rockefeller/Goldwater

divide in this party that is very, very deep and getting more and more bitter.

GREGORY: Let me get in here. You see Hillary Clinton getting up on

the stage. Keith and Chris.

OLBERMANN: If you tell your supporters that the other candidate can't

be elected and isn't qualified and you shouldn't vote for them, eventually that

message will reflect to some degree. As we watch the senator, well ahead of


any final score coming in, but getting near there. That number has been

reported - has been increasing in terms of the actual vote count, now to the

point where we are almost at 60 percent, and it is a ten-point margin for the

moment.

Again, we are waiting, based on the geography that Chuck Todd laid out

for us - Apparently, we are waiting largely for votes from the Philadelphia

area, although city itself has largely reported so far. Pittsburgh has

reported thus far. The Philadelphia exurbs, as Chuck called them earlier in

the evening, might be pro-Obama. They might narrow this margin. It has been

bouncing around. It's been eight percent at times, nine percent at times. At

this point, 10 percent is probably the highest it has been so far.

As we watch Senator and President Clinton and Governor Rendell


celebrating, with the senator about to speak from Philadelphia. It is her

microphone.

SEN. HILLARY CLINTON (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Thank you all.

Thank you. Thank you, very, very much. Thank you. It's a long road to 1600

Pennsylvania Avenue, and it runs right through the heart of Pennsylvania.

You know, for six weeks, Senator Obama and I have crisscrossed this

state, meeting people up close, being judged side-by-side, making our best

case. You listened, and today you chose.

With two wars abroad and an economic crisis here at home, you know the

stakes are high and the challenges are great, but you also know the

possibilities. Those possibilities are endless, if we roll up our sleeves and

get to work with a president who's ready to lead on day one.


You know, that means ready to take charge as commander-in-chief and

make this economy work for middle-class families.

And I thank you. I thank you, Pennsylvania, for deciding I can be that

president.

You know, for me, the victory we share tonight is deeply personal. It

was here in Pennsylvania where my grandfather started work as a boy in the lace

mills and ended up as a supervisor five decades later. It was here where my

father attended college and played football for Penn State.

And I am back here tonight because of their hard work and sacrifice.

And I only wish they could have lived to see this moment, because in this

election I carry with me not just their dreams, but the dreams of people like

them and like you all across our country, people -


- people who embrace hard work and opportunity, who never waiver in

the face of adversity, who stand for what you believe and never stop believing

in the promise of America.

I'm in this race to fight for you, to fight -

- to fight for everyone who's ever been counted out, for everyone

fighting to pay the grocery bills or the medical bills, the credit card and

mortgage payments, and the outrageous price of gas at the pump today.

You know, the pundits questioned whether Pennsylvanians would trust me

with this charge. And tonight you showed you do. You know you can count on me

to stand up strong for you every single day in the White House.

This is a historic race. And I commend Senator Obama and his supporters

tonight. We are, in many ways, all on this journey together to create an


America that embraces every last one of us, the women in their 90s who tell me

they were born before women could vote. And they're hopeful of seeing a woman

in the White House.

The mothers and fathers at my events who lift their little girls on

their shoulders and whisper in their ears, "See, you can be anything you want."

Tonight, more than ever, I need your help to continue this journey.

This is your campaign, and this is your victory tonight.

Your support has meant the difference between winning and losing. Now,

we can only keep winning if we can keep competing with an opponent who

outspends us so massively, so I hope you'll go to HillaryClinton.com -

- and show your support tonight, because the future of this campaign

is in your hands.


You know, some people counted me out and said to drop out. But the

American people -

AUDIENCE: Boo!

CLINTON: Well, the American people don't quit, and they deserve a

president who doesn't quit, either.

You know, tonight, all across Pennsylvania and America, teachers are

grading papers and doctors and nurses are caring for the sick, and you deserve

a leader who listens to you. Waitresses are pouring coffee, and police officers

are standing guard, and small businesses are working to meet that payroll. And

you deserve a champion who stands with you.

And, of course, all across the world, our men and women in uniform,

some on your second, third, or fourth tour of duty, you deserve a commander-in-


chief who will finally bring you home - - and who will rebuild our strained

military, do whatever it takes to care for our veterans, wounded in both body

and spirit. Today, here in Pennsylvania, you made your voices heard. And,

because of you, the tide is turning.

We were up against a formidable opponent who outspent us 3-to-1. He

broke every spending record in this state trying to knock us out of the race.

Well, the people of Pennsylvania had other ideas today.

You know, the presidency is the toughest job in the world, but the

pressures of a campaign are nothing compared to the pressures of the White

House. And today, Pennsylvanians looked through all the heat and saw the light

of a brighter tomorrow, a tomorrow of shared prosperity and restored world

leadership for peace, security and cooperation.


After seven long years of President Bush, we've got our work cut out

for us, and we don't have a minute to waste. So it's high time we stop talking

about our problems and start solving them, and that is what my campaign is all

about.

You know, all through this campaign, I have offered solutions,

solutions for good jobs you can raise a family on, jobs that can't be shipped

overseas, and, on Earth Day, clean, renewable green jobs that can put us on the

right track to the future -

- solutions for independence from foreign oil and exploding gas

prices, quality, affordable health care, not just for many Americans or most

Americans, but for every single American, no exceptions and no excuses -

- affordable college, and real improvements in public schools, not


the failure that is No Child Left Behind.

We're going to end the war on science and have a renewed commitment to

science and research.

We will tackle everything from autism to Alzheimer's, cancer to

diabetes, and make a real difference.

I look forward to discussing all of these issues with the people of

Indiana and North Carolina and the states that I'll be visiting in the coming

weeks.

Not long ago - not long ago, a woman handed me a photograph of her

father as a young soldier. He was receiving the Medal of Honor from President

Truman at the White House. During World War II, he had risked his life on a

daring mission to drive back the enemy and protect his fellow soldiers.


In the corner of that photo, in shaking handwriting, this American hero

had simply written, "To Hillary Clinton, keep fighting for us." And that is

what -

That is what I'm going to do, because America is worth fighting for.

You are worth fighting for.

It was in this city that our founders declared America's independence

and are permanent mission to form a more perfect union. Now, neither Senator

Obama nor I, nor many of you, were fully included in that vision, but we've

been blessed by men and women in each generation who saw America not as it is,

but as it could and should be, the abolitionists and the suffragists, the

progressives and the union members, the civil rights leaders -

- all those who marched, protested, and risked their lives, because


they looked into their children's eyes and saw the promise of a better future.

Because of them, I grew up taking for granted that women could vote.

Because of them, my daughter grew up taking for granted that children of all

colors could attend school together. And because of them, and because of you,

this next generation will grow up taking for granted that a woman or an African-

American can be the president of the United States of America.

I am so honored by the support and the hospitality of all of the people

of Pennsylvania. And I want to especially thank Governor Rendell and Mayor

Nutter -

- Lieutenant Governor Catherine Baker Knoll, and State Treasurer

Robin Wiessmann, and State Party Chair T.J. Rooney. These are great leaders and

dear friends, as are my friends from the Congress, Representatives Murtha,


Sestak, Schwartz, and Kanjorski.

Their support means the world to me, and the support of 100 mayors

across this commonwealth and so many other state and local leaders who worked

hard for this victory tonight.

I want to thank my friends in our labor unions for standing with us

every step of the way.

And my outstanding staff, volunteers and supporters here in

Pennsylvania and across America.

And I especially want to thank my family for their incredible love and

support.

Bill and Chelsea have crisscrossed Pennsylvania from one end to the

other.


My brothers, Hugh and Tony, who love Pennsylvania with all their

hearts, from our childhood summers in Lake Winola, and my mother, who is with

us tonight.

We still have a lot of work ahead of us, but if you're ready, I'm ready.

(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)

CLINTON: Now, I might stumble and I might get knocked down, but as

long as you will stand with me, I will always get right back up.

(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)

CLINTON: Because, for me, in the end, the question isn't whether we

can keep America's promise; it's whether we will keep America's promise.

(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)

CLINTON: So let me ask you - so let me ask you, will we, will we once


again be the can-do nation, the nation that defies the odds and does the

impossible?

(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)

CLINTON: Will we break the barriers and open the doors and lift up all

of our people?

(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)

CLINTON: Will we reach out to the world and lead by our power of our

ideals again?

(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)

CLINTON: Will we take back the White House and take back our country?

(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)

CLINTON: I believe with all of my heart that, together, we will turn


promises into action, words will become solutions, hope will become reality.

So my answer to any who doubt is: Yes, we will.

Thank you, and God bless you.

(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)

KEITH OLBERMANN, MSNBC ANCHOR: Senator Clinton at Philadelphia after

her victory in the Pennsylvania Democratic presidential primary.

The margin is yet to be determined. It is currently, with nearly three-

quarters of the vote in, at 8 percent, as the confetti goes on cue.

CHRIS MATTHEWS, MSNBC ANCHOR: Right.

So much for protocol. The old days, meaning, like last time around,

the candidate who lost a contest would speak first, and then the winner would

speak. But I must say, all that aside, Senator Clinton's remarks were


excellent. I thought it was confident, calm, and a good speech.

She has obviously made a decision to not deliver the kind of stem-

winders, the kind of barn burners she has given before, where she tries to keep

up with the crowd. And it's level. It was very calm, very measured. It

showed a lot of confidence. Certainly, she has been able to tie together

tonight in her remarks the idea of her not being a quitter, the country not

being a quitter.


I thought it was a remarkably successful speech. And I think the tide

is turning is her - is her message for tonight.

OLBERMANN: One question about it - as we wait for Senator Obama, who

has now reached his venue, to speak in a few moments , at most - one question


about it.

We discussed earlier the seeming need for Obama at all times to be

deferential towards her, in the event of this thing coming to a conclusion at

any point, which could be, if this margin shrinks appreciably, although this is

very unlikely, could be after this primary - more than likely not - possibly

at some point later on, because of various factors.

Is there no necessity for her to behave in any way like that towards

him? Of all the things that you said, I'm in agreement with you on the

analysis of speech. There was a lot in there that was mocking, still, in tone

the Obama basic message of, yes, we can. We heard it at the very end. It was -

- it has been paraphrased. It has been co-opted, to some degree.

There is nothing that says she has to be gracious, just in case she is


the winner, so she can be a gracious winner later on?

MATTHEWS: Well, all I can say is, if you look for a parallel, back in

1976, when Jerry Ford was the incumbent Republican president, and Ronald Reagan

took him all, Ronald Reagan acted as if Jerry Ford was nothing more than

furniture in the way of his - of his victory procession. And it may have

taken four years to get past him.

I think Clinton looks upon her role in life to be the next president,

whether this time or next, and that Barack Obama is simply in the way. And

that is the way she continues to look upon him.

OLBERMANN: All right, let's bring in Brian Williams, and Tim Russert,

and Tom Brokaw, as we wait for Senator Obama to speak.

And let me continue on that point. That - that analogy to 1976 and


Reagan and Ford, Tom, seems to be apt here, because, of course, Mr. Ford then

fell more than 30 points behind, if I'm remembering - remembering correctly,

behind Jimmy Carter, and came from all the way back to nearly defeat him. But

that was an extraordinarily divisive period that lasted throughout most of 1976

for the Republicans, and ultimately ended in - ended with their defeat in the

fall.

TOM BROKAW, NBC NEWS: Well, what happened in Kansas City is that

Ronald Reagan was defeated, and then did not go to the stage voluntarily.

And when he was finally persuaded to go on to the stage, the convention

erupted in applause and adulation for him. And Jerry Ford was standing off to

the side, I think, having second thoughts about whether he should have offered

him the vice presidential spot or not. He ended up going with Bob Dole.


Let me just say something about this speech tonight, if I may.

And, by the way, in the background there, I saw Jon Corzine, the

governor of New Jersey, on that stage. Just a week ago, he was expressing, not

so much doubt, but saying, well, we have to wait and see as a superdelegate

about what happens. But there he is tonight. And that is a statement for the

people of New Jersey.

She touched all the themes that she needed to, that she's prepared to

be president. I can be that president, she said. She talked about women. And

then she talked about the core of the Democratic Party, specifically, teachers,

policemen, waitresses, small-business owners, and men in uniform, and then

wound up saying, and he outspent us 3-1. And, if you want to help, she then

gave her Web site and her dot-com address, so that she can get some money.


So, typically of Senator Clinton, she had her act together. And that's

what kept her in the race all this time.

OLBERMANN: Tim Russert, where was that one last component that we

didn't hear? Where was that? And when does she have to bring it out, sort of

protectively, again, in the event that she does manage to take this

nomination?

Because there is going to be the perception, no matter what happens in

the ballot box, no what happens among superdelegates, no matter what kind of

rapprochement there might be later between, perhaps, the Obama camp and Clinton

camp, for Senator Clinton to get that nomination, there will be a large

percentage of the Democratic Party that will say it was taken away violently,

if you will, metaphorically, if you will, from Barack Obama.


Where is just a reserve hint of ointment in that speech or in upcoming

speeches from Senator Clinton?

TIM RUSSERT, NBC WASHINGTON BUREAU CHIEF: Well, the sense I get,

Keith, is first things first. She has to win first, and then she can be

magnanimous and gracious.

Interesting you brought up that point. And to Tom's point, I just got

an e-mail from the Clinton folks saying that the money being - pouring in now

from the Internet is higher than at any point during the entire campaign,

higher than after Super Tuesday, that they had raised $500,000 even before the

speech, and they are bracing themselves for obviously some cash flow to keep

this TV and radio running for Indiana and North Carolina.

At the same time, the Obama campaign is circulating an editorial in


tomorrow's "New York Times" called "The Low Road to Victory." This is a paper

that endorsed Senator Clinton, as you well know. And it suggests that her use

of Osama bin Laden in her TV ads, her use of the word obliterate when it comes

to bombing of Iran, if in fact they began a nuclear - commenced a nuclear

attack against Israel, and the tone of her campaign, is on a path that they

didn't find particularly appealing.

So, she is going to have to walk this tightrope. How does she appeal

to superdelegates and suggest that she has a reasonable chance for the

nomination and would be a better and stronger nominee without antagonizing many

of the newspapers and political community and observers who are watching and

commenting on it in order to give her that opening, if you will? It's not

going to be easy.


OLBERMANN: Well, Brian, to that point, it is not even a question of

what we think. I mean, we are each, like, one person each, I think, still.

It is a question of, is the - is that margin that any Democrat running

against any Republican in the fall, is that larger than the number of

disaffected Democrats, who will be necessarily perhaps disaffected by this

process, no matter which candidate winds up with the nomination?

BRIAN WILLIAMS, NBC ANCHOR: Well, that's right. It comes back to -

back around to our last conversation on this topic.

We're coming out of a state now that has been carpet bombed. When they

talk about being outspent 2-1, 3-1 by Obama, we all know what that means. And

if you saw any Pennsylvania television over the past couple of days or weeks,

it got intense.


Tom Brokaw was right. She's become more unabashed, if that's possible,

about this fund-raising, giving her e-mail - giving her Web site address.

Already tonight, they changed the design on the Web. This "Give us $5 plea"

takes a page from the Obama playbook, that kind of carpet bombing scheme,

looking for the small donations.

I got the same e-mail that Tim Russert got about how much they have

raised pre-speech already tonight.

Here is the buzz-kill, though. And this was the Associated Press lead

that went out to so many daily papers that needed a lead to go to press for

tomorrow morning: "Hillary Rodham Clinton survived yet another day. There

will be little time for celebration, though. Time and money are running out."

So, as we're fond of saying around here, those are the first words a


lot of people will wake up to tonight. And that will go out on the wires as

kind of the first draft of the history of this night, as we wait for the math

and see what this margin is. We heard Lisa Caputo tonight say that even eight

points would be, in her words, decisive.

OLBERMANN: Tom, the - the editorial that Tim mentioned in

tomorrow's "New York Times," as we are still on the subject of newspapers,

which we can overdo very quickly, but just let read the sentence in here.

"The Pennsylvania campaign, which produced yet another inconclusive

result on Tuesday, was even meaner, more vacuous, more desperate, and more

filled with pandering than the mean, vacuous, desperate, pander-filled contests

that preceded it. Voters are getting tired of it. It is demeaning the

political process. And it does not work."


Is there an argument to be made - and, presumably, Senator Clinton

would not come out and say this, but is there an argument to be made on her

behalf that "The Times" is actually wrong with the last conclusion of that,

that, in fact, it does work?

BROKAW: Well, you know, politics ain't beanbag, as Mr. Dooley famously

said in Chicago.

(LAUGHTER)

BROKAW: And that has been repeated to the point that it is a well-worn

cliche in American politics.

Personally, I think have seen some - some tougher campaigns. I was

talking to a Western governor the other day who said, look, we think that this

is all softball thrown underhand at this point. It is going to get to be a lot


tougher in the fall.

But here is the problem for Senator Clinton, even with tonight's

victory. Which candidate do you think is honest and trustworthy? Hillary

Clinton is not, the number is 41 percent. She remains in a very high

stratosphere when it comes to an unfavorable, a negative. She has not been

able to lower that number since the beginning of that - of this campaign.

And that will give everyone in the Democratic Party some pause,

including those superdelegates that she's tried to win over.

OLBERMANN: Tim, how bad can this get, theoretically? I mean, is it

apocalyptic? Is it - is it 1912? Is there a Bull Moose Party waiting to

happen somewhere?

RUSSERT: I don't think so. Certainly, Ralph Nader and others will run


as independents. But I don't see either Obama or Clinton bolting the

convention and trying to mount that kind of candidacy.

But, Keith, I think it can get more bitter than we have seen so far.

These next two weeks are going to be unbelievable, because Hillary Clinton

realizes that she has to live from primary to primary. If she loses North

Carolina and Indiana, all that she feared tonight will reappear on May 6.

And, so, she will use and say and do the things that she thinks she has

to do to win. That was very clear in Pennsylvania. Can Obama, on the other

hand, avoid getting down into a tit for tat and return to his message? Will he

have that luxury of having put the bitter comments and Reverend Wright behind

him?

These next two weeks - I know we keep saying this after each event,


but, believe me, they are critical. They are going to be interesting. Strap

yourself in, America. This race is going forward. And it is one to watch.

That's why there's been so much intensity and interest in this campaign,

because it never disappoints.

MATTHEWS: Let me go to the - perhaps the predictability of tonight,

Tim. If you looked - I mean, our producers, we all had a pool tonight. And

it averaged out to eight points. I thought it would be eight points yesterday

as the over/under.

But, more importantly, I want to ask you, when you look at that Al Hunt

purloined copy of Barack predictions, do they - didn't they have this victory

eight or 10 points already figured months ago in Pennsylvania?

RUSSERT: Funny you should ask, Chris. I have my own copy.


(LAUGHTER)

RUSSERT: I don't go anywhere without it.

Actually, five points. They predicted they would lose Pennsylvania by

five points. And just so - the exact numbers were 52 to 47. Now, stay

tuned. They think they win Indiana 53 percent to 46 percent, and they win

North Carolina 53 percent to 45 percent.

And, of course, Guam, they think they win 55 percent to 44 percent. We

will find out.

MATTHEWS: So, they fell less than expectations, but most people

thought this election in Pennsylvania would be around eight points. It

happened as expected.

It wasn't the - the double-digit blowout that you mentioned earlier


tonight might be necessary to really change the course of this campaign.

But let's see. Here is the man himself who came in short tonight.

Let's see how he treats coming in short, Barack Obama.

OLBERMANN: What - All right, you be his adviser here, just for our

theory, Chris. What on earth do you say under these circumstances? You don't

know your margin of loss is. You only know that it is projected and it's in

the books as a defeat.

MATTHEWS: I think just say Hillary won tonight, and as he promised he

would say.

(CROSSTALK)

MATTHEWS: He was going to be courteous before.

(CROSSTALK)


OLBERMANN: The radio comments about 50 percent, plus one, is a

victory. I'm not going to pretend I'm happy with 45 percent of the vote.

MATTHEWS: Well, what he might do is say with her, you won tonight, but

let's use the same Jeffersonian principle. Whoever gets the most votes overall

should be the nominee. Remind her of the party of Jefferson by giving her the

credit tonight for this victory.

OLBERMANN: The most votes? The most delegates?

MATTHEWS: Well, I'm not sure Terry McAuliffe tonight committed to

either standard.

OLBERMANN: Right.

MATTHEWS: But they have to agree on some count as the basis for who

wins, besides just who can pull it off in Denver.


(CROSSTALK)

OLBERMANN: Well, they will - they will agree to whichever the one he

doesn't agree to, presumably...

(CROSSTALK)

MATTHEWS: Perhaps. But I think he should hold them to some standard.

I know I said today to the Boston - Philadelphia, the chairman of the

party said, the guy with the most elected delegates should have this.

OLBERMANN: Here is Senator Obama.

OBAMA: Thank you, everybody. Thank you so much. Thank you.

(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)

OBAMA: Thank you, Evansville.

(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)


OBAMA: Thank you. Thank you, Evansville. Thank you. Thank you.

CROWD: Obama! Obama! Obama! Obama!

OBAMA: Thank you.

CROWD: Obama! Obama! Obama! Obama!

OBAMA: Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.

Thank you, everybody.

Listen, there are a couple of "thank yous" I have got to say.

(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)

OBAMA: First of all - first of all, it's good to be back in the

Midwest. I am glad to see everybody here in Evansville.

(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)

OBAMA: I want to thank - I want to thank...


UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: We love you, Obama!

OBAMA: I love you back.

(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)

OBAMA: I want to thank John Mellencamp and his wonderful wife, Elaine,

for taking the time to be here today, driving up from Bloomington. Give them a

big round of applause.

(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)

OBAMA: And I want to thank your wonderful mayor, Jonathan Weinzapfel,

and his lovely wife, Patricia, who have been just so gracious to both Michelle

and myself.

I have repeatedly said upon first meeting the mayor that this guy's

going somewhere and mainly because, like me, he married up, and his wife is


such an asset, but I'm so grateful for his support. It means so much. And

Evansville, obviously, is going to be so important to this upcoming election.

Well, I want to thank all of you who are here tonight, but I want to

start tonight by congratulating Senator Clinton on her victory this evening,

and I want to thank - I want to thank - no, no, she ran a terrific race. I

want to thank the hundreds of thousands of Pennsylvanians who stood with our

campaign today.

(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)

OBAMA: You know, there were a lot of folks who didn't think we could

make this a race when it started. They thought we were going to be blown out.

But we worked hard, and we traveled across the state to big cities and small

towns, to factories and VFW halls.


And now, six weeks later, we closed the gap. We rallied people of

every age and race and background to the cause.

(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)

OBAMA: And whether they were inspired for the first time or for the

first time in a long time, we registered a record number of voters. And it is

those new voters who will lead our party to victory in November.

(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)

OBAMA: These Americans cast their ballots for the same reason you came

here tonight, for the same reason that millions of Americans have gone door-to-

door and given whatever small amounts they can to this campaign, for the same

reason that we began this journey, just a few hundred miles from this spot, on

a cold February morning in Springfield: because we believe that the challenges


we face are bigger than the smallness of our politics, and we know that this

election is our chance to change it.

(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)

OBAMA: After 14 long months, it's easy to forget - after 14 long

months, it's easy to forget what this campaign's about from time to time, to

lose sight of the fierce urgency of this moment.

It's easy to get caught up in the distractions and the silliness and

the tit-for-tat that consumes our politics, the bickering that none of us are

entirely immune to, and it trivializes the profound issues: two wars, an

economy in recession, a planet in peril, issues that confront our nation.

That kind of politics is not why we are here tonight. It's not why I'm

here, and it's not why you're here. We...


(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)

OBAMA: We are here because of the more than 100 workers in Logansport,

Indiana, who just found out that their company has decided to move its entire

factory to Taiwan.

We're here because of the young man I met in Youngsville, North

Carolina, who almost lost his home because he has three children with cystic

fibrosis and couldn't pay their medical bills, who still doesn't have health

insurance for himself or his wife, and lives in fear that a single illness

could cost them everything.

We're here because there are families all across this country who are

sitting around the kitchen table right now trying to figure out how they're

going to pay their insurance premiums, and their kid's tuition, and still make


the mortgage, so that they're not the next ones in the neighborhood to put

a "For Sale" sign in their front yard...

(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)

OBAMA:... people who will lay awake tonight wondering if next week's

paycheck will cover next month's bills.

We're not here to talk about change for change's sake, but because our

families and our communities and our country desperately need it.

We are here because we can't afford to keep doing what we have been

doing for another four years.

(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)

OBAMA: We can't afford to play the same Washington games with the same

Washington players and expect a different result. Not this time. Not now.


We already know what we're getting out of the other party's nominee.

John McCain has offered this country a lifetime of service, and we respect

that. But what he's not offering is any meaningful change from the policies of

George W. Bush.

(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)

OBAMA: John McCain believes that George Bush's Iraq policy is a

success, so he's offering four more years of a war with no exit strategy, a war

that's sending our troops on their third tour, and their fourth tour, and their

fifth tour of duty, a war that's cost us billions of dollars and thousands of

lives, thousands more grievously injured, a war that has not made us more safe,

but has distracted us from the task at hand in Afghanistan...

(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)


OBAMA:... a war that should have never been authorized and should

have never been waged.

(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)

OBAMA: John McCain said that - John McCain said that George Bush's

economic policies have led to, and I quote, "great progress" over the last

seven years. And so he's promising four more years of tax cuts for CEOs and

corporations who didn't need them and weren't asking for them, tax cuts that he

once voted against because he said they offended his conscience.

Well, they may have stopped offending John McCain's conscience

somewhere along the road to the White House, but George Bush's economic

policies still offend my conscience, and they still offend yours.

Because I don't think that the 232,000 Americans who have lost their


jobs this year are seeing great progress the way John McCain has seen it. I

don't think the millions of Americans losing their homes have seen that

progress; I don't think the families without health care and the workers

without their pensions have seen that progress.

And if we continue down the same reckless path, I don't think the

future generations who will be saddled with debt will see these years of

progress.

We already know John McCain offers more of the same, so the question is

not whether the other party will bring about change to Washington. We know

they won't. The question is: Will we? That's the question we face in this

election.

Because - because...


CROWD: Yes, we can! Yes, we can! Yes, we can! Yes, we can! Yes, we

can! Yes, we can! Yes, we can!

OBAMA: Because the truth is the challenges we face are not just the

fault of one man or one party. I mean, think about it. How many years, how

many decades have we been talking about solving our health care crisis? How

many presidents have promised to end our dependence on foreign oil?

How many jobs have gone overseas in the '70s, and the '80s, and

the '90s, and we still haven't done anything about it? And we know why. In

every election, politicians come to your cities and your towns, and they tell

you what you want to hear, and they make big promises, and they lay out all

these plans and policies.

But then they go back to Washington when the campaign's over.


Lobbyists spend millions of dollars to get their way. The status quo sets in.

And instead of fighting for health care or jobs, Washington ends up fights over

the latest distraction of the week.

It happens year after year after year after year, and this is our

chance to say, "Not this year."

(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)

OBAMA: This is our chance to say, "Not this time."

(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)

OBAMA: We have a choice in this election. We can be a party that says

there's no problem with taking money from Washington lobbyists, from oil

lobbyists and drug lobbyists and insurance lobbyists.

We can pretend that they represent real Americans and look the other


way when they use their money and influence to stop us from reforming health

care or investing in renewal energy for yet another four years.

Or this time we can recognize that you can't be the champion of working

Americans if you're funded by lobbyists who drown out their voices.

(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)

OBAMA: We can do what we have done in this campaign and say we won't

take a dime of their money. We can do what I did in Illinois and in Washington

and bring both parties together to rein in their power so we can take our

government back. That's the choice we have in this election.

(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)

OBAMA: We can be a party that thinks the only way to look tough on

national security is to talk and act and vote like George Bush and John


McCain. We can use fear as a tactic, the threat of terrorism to scare up

votes.

Or we can decide that real strength is asking the tough questions

before we send our troops in to fight.

(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)

OBAMA: We can see the threats we face for what they are: a call to

rally all Americans and all the world against the common challenges of the 21st

century, terrorism and nuclear weapons, climate change and poverty, genocide

and disease.

That's what it takes to keep us safe in this world. That's the real

legacy of Roosevelt and Kennedy and Truman. That's why I'm running for

president of the United States of America, to restore that legacy.


(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)

OBAMA: We can be a party that says and does whatever it takes to win

the next election. We can calculate and poll-test our positions, tell everyone

exactly what they want to hear.

Or we can be the party that doesn't just focus on how to win, but why

we should. We can tell everyone...

(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)

OBAMA: We can tell everyone what they need to hear about the

challenges we face. We can seek to regain not just an office, but the trust of

the American people, that their leaders in Washington will tell them the

truth. That's the choice in this election.

We can be a party of those who only think like we do and only agree


with all our positions. We can continue to slice and dice this country into

red states and blue states. We can exploit the divisions that exist in our

country for pure political gain.

Or this time we can build on the movement we started in this campaign,

a movement that's united Democrats, independents, Republicans, young, old,

rich, poor, white, black, Hispanic, Asian, Native American, gay, straight,

because one thing I know, from traveling 46 states this campaign season, is

that we are not as divided as our politics suggest.

We may have different stories, we may have different backgrounds, but

we hold common hopes for the future of this country that we love.

In the end, this election is still our best chance to solve the

problems we've been talking about for decades, as one nation, as one people.


Fourteen months later, that is still what this election is about: millions of

Americans who believe we can do better, that we must do better, that that is

what's put us in the position to bring about real change.

And now it's up to you, Evansville. Now it's up to you, Indiana. You

can decide...

(APPLAUSE)

You can decide whether we're going to travel the same worn path or

whether we will chart a new course that offers real hope for the future.

During the course of this campaign, we've all learned what my wife reminds me

all the time, that I'm not a perfect man. I will not be a perfect president.

And so, while I will always listen to you and be honest with you and

fight for you every single day for the next four or eight years...


(APPLAUSE)

... I will also...

(APPLAUSE)

I will also, should I have the opportunity to serve as your president,

ask you to be a part of the change that we need, because in my two decades of

public service in this country, I have seen time and time again that real

change doesn't begin in the halls of Washington, but on the streets of

America.

(APPLAUSE)

It doesn't happen from the top down, but it happens from the bottom

up.

(APPLAUSE)


I also know that real change has never been easy, and it won't be easy

this time either. The status quo in Washington will fight. They will fight

harder than ever to divide us and distract us with ads and attacks from now

until November.

But don't ever forget that you have the power to change this country.

(APPLAUSE)

You can make this election about how we're going to help. You can make

this election about how we're going to help those workers in Logansport, how

we're going to retrain them and educate them, and make our workforce

competitive in a global economy.

You can make this election about how we're going to make health care

affordable for that family in North Carolina, how we're going to help those


families sitting around the kitchen table tonight pay their bills and stay in

their homes.

You can make this election about how we plan to leave our children, all

our children, a planet that's safer and a world that still sees America the

same way my father saw it from across the ocean, as a beacon of all that is

good and all that is possible for all of mankind.

(APPLAUSE)

Now is our turn to follow in the footsteps of all those generations who

sacrificed and struggled and faced down the greatest odds to perfect our

improbable union.

And if we're willing to do what they did, if we're willing to shed our

cynicism and our doubts and our fears, if we're willing to believe in what's


possible again, then I believe we won't just win this primary election, we

won't just win here in Indiana, we won't just win this election in November, we

will change this country, we will change the world, we will keep this country's

promise alive in the 21st century.

(APPLAUSE)

That's our task; that's our job. Let's get to work.

Thank you. May God bless you. God bless the United States of America.

We can tell everyone what they need to hear about the challenges they face. We can seek to regain not just an office but the trust of the American people.

That their leaders in Washington will tell them the truth. That's the choice in this election. We can be a party of those who only think like we do and only agree with all our positions. We can continue to slice and dice this country into red states and blue states, we can exploit the divisions that exist in our country for pure political gain or this time we can build on the movement we started in this campaign.

A movement that's united, Democrats, independents, Republicans, young, old, rich, poor, white, black, Hispanic, Asian, Native American, gay, straight, because one thing I know from traveling 46 states this campaign season is that we are not as divided as our politics suggest.

We may have different stories. We may have different backgrounds, but we hold common hopes for the future of this country that we love.

In the end this election is still our best chance to solve the problems we've been talking about for decades. As one nation, as one people. Fourteen months later that is still what this election is about. Millions of Americans who believe we can do better. That we must do better. That is what's put us in the position to bring about real change. And now it is up to you Evansville. Now it is up to you Indiana.


You can decide - you can decide whether we are going to travel the same worn path or whether we will chart a new course that offers real hope for the future. During the course of this campaign we've all learned what my wife reminds me all the time, that I'm not a perfect man. I will not be a perfect president. So I will always listen to you and be honest with you and fight for you every single day for the next four or eight years I will also...

KEITH OLBERMANN, MSNBC HOST: You are watching MSNBC's coverage of the Pennsylvania primary. Here is Barack Obama's speech from Evansville, Indiana.

OBAMA: I will also, should I have the opportunity to serve as your president, ask you to be a part of the change that we need. Because in my two decades of public service in this country I have seen time and time again that real change doesn't begin in the halls of Washington but on the streets of America. It doesn't happen from the top down but it happens from the bottom up.

I also know that real change has never been easy. And it won't be easy this time either. The status quo in Washington will fight. They will fight harder than ever to divide us and distract us with ads and attacks from now until November. But don't ever forget that you have the power to change this country.

You can make this election about how we're going to help. You can make this election about how we're going to help those workers in Logansport, how we are going to retrain them and educate them and make our workplace competitive in a global economy. You can make this election about how we are going to make health care affordable for that family in North Carolina, how we're going to help those families sitting around the kitchen table tonight pay their bills and stay in their homes, you can make this election about how we plan to leave our children, all our children, a planet that is safer and a world that still sees America the same way my father saw it from across the ocean as a beacon of all that is good and all that is possible for all of mankind.

Now is our turn. To follow in the footsteps of all those generations who sacrificed and struggled and faced down the greatest odds to perfect our improbable union. And if we're willing to do what they did. If we're willing to shed our cynicism and our doubts and our fears, if we're willing to believe in what's possible again then I believe we won't just win this primary election, we won't just win here in Indiana, we won't just win in election in November, we will change this country. We will change the world. We will keep this country's promise alive in the 21st century. That's our task. That's our job.

Let's get to work. Thank you. May God bless you. And God bless the United States of America.

OLBERMANN: Senator Obama completing his speech at Evansville, Indiana. And if you have the sudden urge to run out and buy a fleece it is due to product placement, I guess. It did not have seemingly the effect Senator Clinton's speech did. Even though what Senator Clinton said was made up of components of what she said before. As was Senator Obama's.

CHRIS MATTHEWS, MSNBC HOST: Her manner, I think, was much more confident than we've seen before. It didn't have that - a standard problem with people to keep up with the applause and rise above it.

Which creates a bad tone. She managed to speak tonight with great calm, confidence. I think it was a good message. Which was why she won. Why it is important to win the general election in November. It wasn't a partisan speech in the sense of rivalry kind of speech with Barack Obama.

OLBERMANN: I'll disagree with you on that point.

MATTHEWS: Jump in.


OLBERMANN: On a couple of occasions under those circumstances there was as I said earlier, mocking references to the catch phrases of Senator Obama which are just as ardently as she is supported as her core groups and demographics so is he so ardently supported. And people believe that phrase yes, we can, has a great meaning to them just as what she says to her followers says. To throw that out as I said to Senator Clinton I understand you have a primary to win in Pennsylvania.

I'm not mocking that or denigrating that. But there does seem to be that tone of this is the finals somehow. When there is another round to go. And no matter what you think of these people whichever one of these candidates succeeds the other one is going to have to be a source of votes as simple as that.

It's a really simple equation.

MATTHEWS: The other half of that, however, is that she did win by 10 percent it looks like tonight. Ten percent. It is a clear victory by any estimate. My spread was eight. Other people had seven as the spread. She clearly beat the spread. Beat the number. Came in with a convincing victory. She apparently won very well in the suburbs where I didn't think she'd do that well. It looks like she has done very well in Montgomery County where my brother is the county commissioner. I'm very impressed she can do that well.

Maybe it has this last minute tactic about this really militancy in the Middle East where she is coming out as the one who is going to obliterate Iran. Maybe that moved some older voters, perhaps. But I didn't see that in the numbers when I looked at them. And I wonder what is going on here.

I think Barack Obama has a problem with working white people. Just to be blunt about it. That has been a problem. We'll have to go through these numbers and see them. Clearly he - Barack Obama was getting 98 percent or better of the African American vote. He was doing very well, I would bet, among four-year college people. But he still has a problem in a state which has so many working white people to convince them he is the one that will deliver them from their economic challenges in the world.

He is going to come through and win the general election. As we saw that in the exit polling, he faced a real problem not just with Hillary Clinton but with her people. Perhaps because of the nature of her campaign as you point out that she has basically ran against Barack Obama. And in so doing has made him unacceptable as an alternative to her own voters come November which is not a good idea. If the Democrats wish to win not just the nomination but the election.

OLBERMANN: And if you want to make it more personal if Senator Clinton wants to win the election, assuming these various extraordinary hurdles that still await her after this are vaulted, what happens at that point? Where is the support she needs from theoretically her automatic support? Where does that come from the it has been burned away in this primary season.

MATTHEWS: I think the Clintons, some people will not like the sound of this, some will. I think they believe they think they are the leaders of the Democratic Party. I believe they think it is their party. To do with as they will.

And for someone like yourself or anyone to criticize what they're doing they feel inordinate. You shouldn't criticize them. It is their party. They'll do with it what they will. That is the Clinton attitude I think most people would assume.

OLBERMANN: A number of million votes suggest otherwise.

MATTHEWS: The minority of votes in Pennsylvania to that view.


Gerry McEntee, the head of AFSCME, a lot of the union leaders, look at the mayors of Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, Allentown, well, perhaps he came a little more late to the fight.

Chris Dougherty up in Scranton. All of these political leaders of the state, especially the ones in Pittsburgh and Philadelphia all saying we are with President Clinton's successor who is the next President Clinton. That is the way they look at it. Eddie Rendell is a loyalist to the Clintons, to Bill perhaps more than Hillary. They believe it is their party and they're going to rule it.

OLBERMANN: But clearly the Clinton family will not win the election by itself. As much as they may think that.

MATTHEWS: Chelsea Clinton has played a role, Hillary Clinton has played a role, it is almost as if the family is coming back as a group to reinstall itself as the leaders of the party formally.

OLBERMANN: Like a reuniting rock band going back on tour.

MATTHEWS: The Blues Brothers are back. Now it is amazing to watch. I watched how Hillary Clinton very carefully reassembles the family for particular occasions. Bringing their daughter in, of course. Bringing her husband back to a major market area which she's been keeping him away from for weeks. Bringing him back to a big city with her. Bringing her mother aboard. It is a kind of return to destiny on the part of the Clintons. They want this party back.

OLBERMANN: He now goes to North Carolina and we think ahead to that and Indiana. Let's go through the wisemen of our office, our NBC NIGHTLY NEWS anchor Brian Williams, NBC News Washington bureau chief and moderator of MEET THE PRESS Tim Russert and MSNBC special correspondent Tom Brokaw. Tim, I spoke to Senator Clinton last night. She did a couple of interviews. Not only have her surrogates said this but she, in fact, said it in one of those interviews that this will somehow be resolved by June. What is that blueprint in their minds? How is this resolved by June?

TIM RUSSERT, MSNBC HOST: She wins Indiana. Comes very close or much closer than anyone expects in North Carolina. She wins convincingly in West Virginia and Kentucky and Puerto Rico. Comes close in Oregon. And then says to the superdelegates, she calls them automatic delegates, I have demonstrated convincingly that I win the big states, I win the traditional white blue collar voters that you need to carry the Electoral College map come November, I should be your nominee. I have demonstrated Barack Obama, although a good candidate, is not ready this time.

It is going to be interesting Keith, because the more this campaign goes on, the more time the Clintons can buy. They remember the bitter comment. They remember the Wright situation. Perhaps more of those episodes, events will occur.

I'll give you an example. Tomorrow NBC News has learned that the North Carolina Republican Party is having a news conference unveiling a television ad talking about controversial figures in Barack Obama's life and asking the two Democrats competing who are competing for the Democratic nomination for governor why would they support Barack Obama?

This is going to be an interesting development. It is going to inject it appears race front and center in a North Carolina primary by the Republican primary.

And lastly and obviously bring Tom and Brian in here, we have to reset the table. How many delegates did Hillary Clinton win tonight?


Chuck Todd will have the latest numbers I'm certain. It is probably going to g around a net gain of 15. The cumulative popular vote, she'll carry the state by about 200,000. Obama had been leading the cumulative vote by 700,000, so it cuts it down to 500,000.

What happens in two weeks? He can regain all those lost delegates and cumulative popular vote in North Carolina. And even if she wins Indiana does she have any chance of closing down those two metrics? The answer is probably no absent a huge upset in North Carolina. So we go back again to I should be the nominee because I'm tougher and stronger and I can win the Electoral College map. Don't take a chance on Barack Obama even though he has more elected delegates.

OLBERMANN: Brian, where do we turn in history for something like this in American politics? Where it is essentially overruling the outcome theoretically of the game after maybe the teams are already in the clubhouse or locker room which analogy you would like to use?

BRIAN WILLIAMS, NBC NEWS ANCHOR: It's the history book cliche. You go back to smoke-filled rooms but it ain't the same. That's why we keep saying this is all new ground. I agree with Tim's mathematical assessment and his projections. There is a real good chance we end up net and net here. There is a counterbalance for everything that happens in these remaining contests. I would look for John McCain to have some fun with the obliteration quote along the lines of man, they talk about me, as the Democrats continue to worry that this is Republican playbook fodder they're handing out. As to where the Democratic Party is right now you need look no closer than the musical bard of Indiana. The guy you saw on the stage at the end of Obama's remarks, John Mellencamp, the favorite son, he played, warmed up the crowd tonight for Obama. He is also scheduled to play for a Clinton rally in Indiana. More than one.

It's unbelievable when the musicians don't commit.

OLBERMANN: Well, we might have our emissary from one camp to another. Maybe it's a John Cougar Mellencamp brokered pre-convention.

Tom, is it looking like a parallel in history is not so much a primary parallel but an election parallel. In other words, to gain the nomination even with this victory in Pennsylvania, even if it is by that 10 percent margin that we're seeing as we are closing in on 90 percent of the vote in, is it necessary for Senator Clinton to play the role of George W. Bush in Bush v. Gore at a Democratic primary level to get the nomination?

TOM BROKAW, NBC NEWS ANCHOR: First of all historical precedent is not very helpful because the Democratic Party rules have so changed over the years. If you go back to 1960 John F. Kennedy was on the trail against Hubert Humphrey primarily. Lyndon Johnson thought that he deserved the nomination, that he was best equipped to be president. He arrived in Los Angeles and realized that he was not going to get that.

That John Kennedy had captured the hearts of the Democratic Party. And by the way in those Democratic primaries we talk about rough stuff now.

Remember Hubert Humphrey who was steam rolled if you will by John F.

Kennedy, John F. Kennedy's father's money, Frank Sinatra and a lot of other things in the State of West Virginia. It was a very rough time.

We have not seen any comparable to that during the course of this campaign. 1968 Hubert Humphrey sat back and watched Gene McCarthy and Bob Kennedy slug it out on the campaign trail. Bobby Kennedy thought if he could win California, which he did, he could pull Mayor Daley of Chicago across to his side.


But of course Bobby Kennedy tragically didn't get to Chicago, he didn't get out of the hotel that night in California. Historical precedent is there but at the same time it is not. I think what Senator Clinton has going here as Tim indicated earlier, hoping for more developments that will work against Senator Obama. This is her strategy she is going to play out as long as she can until she hits the wall. We all remember that a couple of weeks ago Senator Harry Reid the Senator majority leader said we will have this worked out by July. I checked around. No one knew what he was talking about because they weren't in on the deal.

OLBERMANN: Tim, summarize this for us as we move on from Pennsylvania. What are we looking at? What is or are Indiana and North Carolina going to look like?

RUSSERT: Well, tonight this 10-point victory Hillary Clinton has won is sizable, is considerable. And it guarantees she will have the money to run a very competitive race in Indiana. Every cent she gets, Keith, will keep the plane in the air and to buy TV time on the air.

And she will raise enough money. She won't be able to repay her $5 million loan and I don't think Mark Penn will be paid off, but she will be on television in Indiana and North Carolina. No doubt about it. She will fund aggressively for the next two weeks. We have our battleground. If Obama can win considerably in North Carolina and beat her in Indiana she'll, I believe, have a hard time going on from there in a serious way. She may want to go to West Virginia and Kentucky and go out on a high note, but I think again, like we saw a lot of people poised to step in and end it. They would do so if she went oh for two.

If she wins Indiana this goes all the way through all the primaries into June.

OLBERMANN: Another D-day is circled on the calendar on May 6.

BROKAW: South Dakota in June. I think we're all waiting for.

RUSSERT: Brokaw, South Dakota.

OLBERMANN: We defer to you Mr. Brokaw. Tom Brokaw, many thanks, Brian Williams, many thanks, Tim Russert, great thanks to you as well.

All right, let's finish it off.

MATTHEWS: Another victory for cable television. The battle goes on. No resolution. Hillary Clinton beats the spread. However, Barack Obama is still in it. He can win in Indiana. I'm looking forward perhaps to see Hillary in a college tour event in Indiana. Perhaps Notre Dame or Indiana University would be good. And perhaps Barack Obama back to another one.

This campaign continues because the Democrats have not yet decided on their nominee. Hillary Clinton has slowed it down again. She pushed the mute button or whatever button you want to call it. How about the pause button.


OLBERMANN: Pause button.

MATTHEWS: The pause button, because superdelegates are unlikely to move right now in either direction. They don't buy this notion that somehow they are going to rush to Hillary Clinton. I think they are going to continue to wait and see what happens in the next two weeks.

We'll be back here again in two weeks. North Carolina will be interesting. I think that if the Republican Party goes back to the old trick it did with the days of Jesse Helms and Harvey Gant running a campaign that is overtly racist, I think that will be a mistake if they do that. I will wait and see if they do that.

OLBERMANN: You heard Tim's hint about this. About calling on Democrats to disassociate themselves with Obama due to controversial figures in his past. One would think the backlash against racism in the America of 2008, it also might have some more politically practical backlash. There is a lot that can be thrown at the Republicans and the past associations of Senator McCain or even some of the current ones.

MATTHEWS: I was fortunate to go to graduate school down there. I love that state. I think it is a better state than that. I hope we don't see this kind of thing.

Because this campaign involves a woman and an African American and a white American and the choices among those three should be based on character and ability and the best interest of this country. We can still get that kind of a campaign done by the end of this year. We can do this. We can do this.

OLBERMANN: Yes, we can.

MATTHEWS: Yes, we can.

OLBERMANN: Chris maintains that 800 toll free number for Senator Clinton to call in to do the college tour.

MATTHEWS: We look forward to it. It will be a great night for her and the campaign.

OLBERMANN: Chris, we'll see you on HARDBALLL. I'll see you on COUNTDOWN.

David Gregory and that White House panel will take over after a short break. For Chris Matthews, I'm Keith Olbermann, thanks for being with us. Thanks for being with me.


(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

DAVID GREGORY, MSNBC NEWS HOST: We are back on our continuing coverage here on MSNBC. A decisive night in Pennsylvania for Hillary Clinton. I'm David Gregory. With my RACE FOR THE WHITE HOUSE panel.

We join you each night at 6:00 p.m. Eastern Time on MSNBC and we are here late night with our post game edition here tonight. I want to go around the panel here as we talk about our headlines for this night.

Still unfolding. Pat Buchanan, the reality is we came into this night saying she had to meet a spread, to win by double digits if this is going to be counted as a victory. It's not done yet. She's got a 10-point margin over Barack Obama in Pennsylvania. It's significant.

PAT BUCHANAN, MSNBC ANALYST: It's more than significant. She clobbered him. He lost this race worse than Michael Dukakis won the presidency. More than 10 points. He had the media, the money, he has the huge crowd. The question is has Obama peaked as a candidate? We've all talked ability the arithmetic. He's got the delegates. But has he peaked? That was a tired speech he gave tonight. And she came out, she was soft but strong and confident and smiling. She said the tide has turned. And the tide has turned and the momentum has turned. But once we get past that that we get back to the arithmetic. Which has not turned yet.

But there is a real possibility, I think if he doesn't turn this thing around people are going to say, look, has Barack, the big 12 wins in February, is that over? Is this guy past it? Has the hitting streak burnt out? I think that is the question everybody is asking about Barack Obama.

GREGORY: Rachel, how do you see it?

RACHEL MADDOW, AIR AMERICA: I think tonight, well the 10-point margin is pretty much, that was the common wisdom that she was going to win by. I don't know if it looks like getting clobbered.

GREGORY: I don't know if that was the common wisdom. It certainly went down for the week that it was going to be a lot tighter. That she wasn't going to be double digits.

MADDOW: Pat's prediction last night was six to 12. I'm going to call 10 the common wisdom when I'm sitting next to Pat. You are always right on the money especially when you give a nice wide range like that. Real big and the money is going to land on.

GREGORY: We spent a lot of tonight talking about if she comes in less than ten points it is not going to be a significant victory, it is not going to be changing the dynamic. She was able at least at this stage about 85 percent of the precincts in to hit that number.

MADDOW: Yes. That's right. And my take is if she won by one vote she would be staying in. I think the real question and important number will not necessarily be the margin of victory. I think the important number is the fundraising spike she gets out of this. How can Hillary Clinton convert this victory tonight to money? That is absolutely what she needs. If you are working on the Hillary Clinton campaign and going to Democratic donors, people who have not yet given to Hillary Clinton or certainly have not maxed out, what is your pitch, is your pitch about Barack Obama's weaknesses or is your pitch something about Hillary Clinton? Is it about her strengths, is it about some proposal that she's made? Something she has to offer?


BUCHANAN: Rachel, what good has his money been? What good has his money been? She's outspending him four to one.

MADDOW: I'd rather be him sitting on $41 million having lost Pennsylvania than her sitting on debt looking at North Carolina coming down the pike.

BUCHANAN: She is going to get free media. She is going to get the energy and the fire and the free media. A lot of press guys tomorrow will be shifting over and following her on the bus. Because hey, we have got a hot new race that is what happens when you win.

GREGORY: Eugene, one of the things she said tonight effectively was similar to what John McCain about Mitt Romney. You can't buy this race. He came into Pennsylvania. He outspent her. He was there to compete with her and in the end she was able to hold him off.

EUGENE ROBINSON, "WASHINGTON POST": That was the tone of her remarks. You know, it was a really good night for Hillary Clinton. The margin really does matter and ten points is enough. Is enough for her to claim this as a genuine victory for her. It was a bad night for Barack Obama. It is true that tomorrow in the cold light of day he will still be ahead in delegates, he will still have all this money and if you look ahead two weeks unless his candidacy completely collapses he is going to win big in North Carolina. So that will answer your question about the spread...

BUCHANAN: Who do you bet on in Indiana?

I would bet on her as of now. I think momentum is going mean something.

ROBINSON: Indiana is a tossup. He is from the next door state.

But she, the other next door state, Ohio, she won pretty big. So it's going to be the battle. This means the bottom line is that nobody is going to coast beautifully to this nomination. Nobody is going to win this beautifully. It is going to be won ugly.

GREGORY: Let's talk about the numbers. I want to talk about how we go forward, Indiana and North Carolina. Let me check in once again with Norah O'Donnell, look at some of the exit polling for the night and the various factors in this race. Norah what do you have?

NORAH O'DONNELL, MSNBC CORRESPONDENT: We heard Hillary Clinton essentially in her victory speech talk about how this is a contest for all people. But we wanted to look specifically about the issue of race. How that has figured into this primary.

After all, between the last primary six weeks ago in Mississippi and tonight, the videos of Barack Obama's long time pastor Jeremiah Wright was circulated.


And Obama had to make that speech on race. So here is what we found when we asked how important the race of the candidate was in deciding their vote today. And among white voters, 83 percent essentially said it was not important among. Sixteen percent said race was important.

That is actually about the same we saw in Ohio. And while Obama's speech on race was generally well received, the Wright issue of course inevitably raised the visibility of race. Did this effect voters'

attitudes. Just a little over one in 10 white voters in the Philadelphia area said race was important. By contrast nearly two in ten white voters in other parts of the state said it was important.

Here is how the vote went among those Pennsylvania white voters who said it was important to them. Clinton won a sizable majority, 75 percent of that compared to 25 percent who picked Obama. As in other races black voters went overwhelmingly for Barack Obama. While Hillary Clinton won white seniors and white working class voters in Pennsylvania by huge margins, we actually looked at the numbers and Obama actually improved his showing in those groups since Ohio. The bottom line, the Wright controversy did not seem to hurt him with the majority of white Democratic voters in Pennsylvania. Back to you.

GREGORY: All right. Norah O'Donnell, thank you very much. Looking inside the numbers. We are looking inside the numbers of the final vote spread in Pennsylvania. It stands at 10-point advantage for Hillary Clinton at this point in the race in Pennsylvania. It's what she sought to do which is to get a big enough victory to claim an outright victory. And there you see, 93 percent of the precincts reporting. It is still 10 points.

We are going to take a break here. When we are going to come back we'll talk to Howard Fineman, look ahead to our panel as well, the upcoming contests, Indiana and North Carolina. What will be the arguments to voters and to those superdelegates.

Our coverage continues right here on MSNBC. Don't go away.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

GREGORY: I'm David Gregory. We are following the ongoing race in Pennsylvania which is not quite over yet tonight. We are waiting for 100 percent reporting from the precincts but Hillary Clinton has won a decisive victory in Pennsylvania tonight. With those precincts in, we're at 93 percent. It is a ten-point margin of victory. We have heard from the candidates. We have heard the spin from their surrogates. This campaign goes on with Hillary Clinton saying that she is not going to quit. Howard Fineman has been in the listening post with "Newsweek" magazine, of course all night long.

And Howard, a couple points I want to run by you here. From the Politico tonight, a Clinton spokesman saying in Philadelphia that there is beginning to be a subtle shift in psychology among the superdelegates, this is the Clinton campaign offering this tonight, as they are wondering why Obama has been unable to win this thing despite all the advantages he has. They are boasting tonight of $2.5 million new into the Clinton coffers, 80 percent of those from new donors. New momentum from the Clinton campaign off a big victory.

HOWARD FINEMAN, "NEWSWEEK": I'm shocked that the Politico would be able to detect through the Clinton campaign a shift in the delegate psychology. Of course they are going to say that. That remains to be seen. But the money number is real. I don't know if it is $2.5 million. I was hearing about $1.5 million but that was an hour ago.

Hillary is going have money. As she goes forward to Indiana and North Carolina she's going to have support. I'm told not to be surprised in North Carolina if Elizabeth Edwards shows up at Hillary Clinton events with Hillary and maybe even without Hillary.


I don't think John Edwards is going to endorse. But I think Elizabeth Edwards' sentiments are going to be made clear and that matters in North Carolina. In Indiana Hillary has support of the most popular Democrat in the state, Senator Evan Bayh who has been with her from the beginning and who now becomes a major figure against all odds.

Who would imagine that Indiana would be pivotal. But Evan Bayh is popular.

But Indiana is southern Indiana as well as the Chicago suburbs and that could well be a battle. Also the kitchen sink strategy that Hillary Clinton employed against Obama sort of worked. It's hard to explain the double-digit victory without at least mentioning that.

Hillary is going to be rough. She is going to be nasty, she is going to be negative. She is going to keep running the ad they ran in the last days of the Pennsylvania primary which was an ad evoking memories of the Depression, of World War II, using the voice of Osama bin Laden saying who can stand the heat in the kitchen, Hillary can, Obama can't. We know what Hillary is going to do. The big question tonight is what is Obama going to do. I have been talking to top people in the Obama campaign. My sense is there are two schools of thought. One of them is headed by somebody like Tom Daschle, who is kind of the gray beard and experienced guy from the Senate who is an adviser to Obama. He says hold your fire. Let's go out on an up note. We have the money, we have the delegates and we have the popular vote. Don't be nasty. Don't go out on a negative tone. It is Barack's standing that protects him. It is his calling card in the end.

But inside the campaign I think people like David Axelrod who comes out of Chicago, who knows how to play tough is saying no, we've got to double down. We have got to give it back to Hillary the way she has been giving to us or we threatening to lose this thing.

GREGORY: You saw in the closing days of the Pennsylvania campaign that Obama started to do that. There was a shift where he started to get more pointed in his counterattacks or initiating attacks against her sensing this attempt to kind of ride above it, to talk over her head, to reach those voters in his own base who were fed up with old-style politics that that wasn't working.

FINEMAN: What Hillary did in Pennsylvania there was not a theory, there was not a shred of theory in anything Hillary said in Pennsylvania. It was health care. It was gas prices. It was as real as she could make it. Obama can be real but he also has a theoretical approach to politics, to change the system. It sometimes sounds process oriented. It sounded like that frankly in Indiana tonight. If you listen to Hillary it was all about her as a fighter and her as a bringer of specific meat and potatoes items of change. That is how she is going fight it. It is going to be really nasty and Obama has got to decide if the is going give it back to her in kind in the next two weeks.

GREGORY: Howard Fineman of "Newsweek" magazine, thank you very much as always.

FINEMAN: Thank you, David.

GREGORY: Our political director Chuck Todd is looking ahead now which is what we want to do, Chuck. As we go forward by the numbers and look at the new end game here. You said tonight in your reporting this isn't about pledge delegates any longer there is a kind of new math behind new Clinton momentum if she's got it.

CHUCK TODD, MSNBC POLITICAL ANALYST: It is. I hesitate to use it because you'll have some Obama people will argue, well wait a minute, it is not about popular votes, it's about delegates. The fact is I have talked to superdelegates and these uncommitted superdelegates are watching the popular vote. So let's go through the popular vote. I want to try to find her 200,000 more votes. Because you have - she picked up a net of 200,000. She was down 700,000. That sliced it down now to 500,000. I want to find another 200,000 for her because she has got Florida. She has 300,000 votes in Florida right here in her back pocket. In her mind she only needs 200,000 to lay claim to this idea that she has won the popular vote.

So where does she go? Let's start at the next two states, North Carolina, Indiana. Our projections have Obama winning North Carolina.


The question is by how much? If he wins it by 10 percent he is probably going to net 150 pledged delegates. See I'm getting into delegates.

Popular votes. A hundred fifty thousand. That would almost negate the 200,000 she's just got out of Pennsylvania. She has to keep that margin closer than 10 points. And frankly, 10 points seems like a fairly small margin for that.

Then there's Indiana. If she wins Indiana very closely by two or three points she is going to net 20,000 votes. She needs to win that by 10, excuse me, something big. Maybe she can net 80,000 votes out of there. The fact is it is very difficult to find her 200,000 more nets.

She can net 100,000 votes out of Kentucky, it's very lucky, she'll net 80,000 votes out of West Virginia. There are her 200,000 votes. The problem is you have got 150,000 deficit in North Carolina that she faces. Then we look toward Oregon. This is maybe the ultimate firewall for Obama. Why is it a firewall? He can spend money now to start saving Oregon to make sure he doesn't lose ground there. He is up big in some early polling that I have heard about. This is a place if momentum from Pennsylvania does happen for Clinton she could possibly pick up something there.

The problem is she's got no money. She has to take all her money and throw it into Indiana and possibly into North Carolina because she can't let North Carolina get out of hand. If she somehow lets North Carolina completely negate Pennsylvania there is no chance she can get the popular vote without it.

So keep an eye on the margin in North Carolina. Can she keep it 100,000, maybe less. Take a look and watch to see if she can ever start spending money in Oregon. She has to figure out how pick off something of his. Oregon is a potential for her if she'll spend the money there.

GREGORY: Just quickly on that money. However much she takes in after a win in Pennsylvania, she is still in debt. She is still way behind. She can complain about Obama outspending her in states like Pennsylvania where he did, but that is going to be a tremendous tactical advantage for him.

TODD: Well, David, I had one professor friend of mine out in California say to me it may - Pennsylvania may ultimately be the Soviet sort of what the Soviet Union, what Reagan did to the soviet union.

Obama spent so much money there forcing her to spend money he spent her to nothing forcing her to not be able to find the resources to fight on for May 6 and then he shuts it down because he still has all these resources he can spend. She is in bankruptcy a la the Soviet Union and can't seem catch up those three points. Remember, money matters when you are moving two or three points. It could be the end game as far as Indiana is concerned.

GREGORY: A little criminology from our political director Chuck Todd.

TODD: Kremlinology, right?

GREGORY: Right.


The panel, we have a lot to chew on as we look at this. Pat one of the things you will hear Obama make as an argument is the way for Hillary Clinton to win, the way for her to get back in the popular vote total is for her to make a desperate argument to try to tear me down as a candidate. The "New York Times" editorializing this was not a dirty campaign but vacuous campaign because it got nasty toward the end.

BUCHANAN: I think the "New York Times" is preposterous. What she is saying is we are in a grave situation. It is dire. We need strong leadership. I represent it. Look at the crises America went through.

GREGORY: There is a question mark about Obama?

BUCHANAN: She made comparative ads. She said I'm the great leader and he is not. What the heaven's name is wrong with that?

MADDOW: Says the great Republican analyst. Democrats don't usually run ads like that. That's why it's an issue. Democrats have don't run on the be afraid, think of me when you think of death thing, that's a Republican trope.

Democrats have done with a freedom from fear thing for a long time now and I think Democrats are looking for that kind of leadership from a Democratic candidate.

BUCHANAN: They are not looking in Pennsylvania.

MADDOW: Well, in Pennsylvania he went from 16 points to 10 points in six weeks.

BUCHANAN: At the end the thing was widening again. Look, to me this is perfectly legitimate politics by her. I don't see what the problem at all is with that ad. And they are whining. Obama is whining and the "New York Times" is chronically whining.

MADDOW: How is Obama whining?

BUCHANAN: They are all, did you hear what he said, all these things they did. They are not talking about hope.

GREGORY: Let's talk about the Obama that showed up tonight, which was still making a similar argument which is we want a kind of politics on our terms. We don't want a return to the kind of politics that Hillary Clinton is arguing. The kind that she is playing.


ROBINSON: Right. Well, look, first of all, that has been very successful for him. The idea of new politics. The idea of him as a different kind of political leader who doesn't play the traditional games has worked very well for him. Getting away from that, urged by people like Pat Buchanan to hit back hasn't worked as well for him. So I think that's in a sense getting back to what brung him.

BUCHANAN: Look, I agree with you. The sense is it has worked.

February was phenomenal. 12 straight victories. What I'm saying is it ain't working now. She's got it down. She's got a different game plan and hers is working now. I'm not saying the best thing for him is to do the same thing. He may damage the product. But I'm saying he's got a real problem. That was a tired speech tonight, Gene. That was not the guy we used to sit here in awe of when he gave these speeches.

ROBINSON: The thing, it actually wasn't that bad of speech. The thing was we have heard that speech. That was problem. If you actually listen to it and tuned in it was a beautiful speech in my ways but we have heard it. We've heard those...

BUCHANAN: We've heard it. Everybody has heard it.

GREGORY: Let me interject. Maria Teresa Petersen with Voter Latino is with us as well. I wanted to get your take tonight. We talked about the speeches that we heard from Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. If we have that ready, I want to hear a piece of Hillary Clinton and talk about the candidate that she is now after Pennsylvania as opposed to the candidate she was coming into the state. Let's listen to a piece of her victory speech tonight.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. HILLARY CLINTON, (D) PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: It was in this city that our founders declared America's independence and our permanent mission to form a more perfect union. Now neither Senator Obama nor I nor you were included in that vision. But we have been blessed by men and women in each generation who saw America not as it is but could and should be. The abolitionists and the suffragists, the progressives and the union members, the civil rights leaders, all those who marched and protested and risked their lives because they looked into their children's eyes and saw the promise of a better future.

Because of them I grew up taking for granted that women could vote, because of them my daughter grew up taking for granted that children of all colors could attend school together and because of them because of you this next generation will grow up taking for granted that a woman or African American could be president of the United States.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

GREGORY: Maria, we heard a lot from Hillary Clinton about the historic nature of her campaign, the historic nature campaign she wants voters to be thinking about. Was that a difference for you?

MARIA TERESA PETERSEN, VOTER LATINO: Well, first of all, thanks for having me on, David. And I absolutely think she did well in Pennsylvania. What she needs to do, what Hillary needs is a blowout.


And I know, call me crazy but the only blowout you foresee in her future is Puerto Rico. And the reason I say Puerto Rico is right now Puerto Rico has historically voted with who the governor is and how the governor voted. The governor of Puerto Rico right now is an Obama supporter but is under investigation for corruption charges.

And so those 63 delegates all of the sudden that were hopefully going to be in the Barack Obama camp are all of the sudden very much in the clutches of the Hillary camp. At the same time they also vote in record numbers. All of a sudden you have 80 percent of close to two million people going to the polls. If you are Hillary Clinton you definitely want to hit Puerto Rico. Because all of the sudden, what Chuck was talking about of having the possibility of the popular vote, it really does crystallize those numbers in Puerto Rico, David.

GREGORY: Maria, in terms of her chances going forward and what she does, what does Barack Obama do coming out of a loss like this where he has the advantage in pledge delegates, he has still got a financial advantage? How does he move forward and close her down in the next two weeks? He doesn't have to wait six weeks. He has two weeks, now, Indiana and North Carolina. Both states that have plenty of advantages for him.

PETERSEN: He has to continue being steady and go back to the message before. I mean, look, everyone was saying three weeks ago Hillary had a 20-point lead. He cut it to half. That was what one would consider was his worth month. With the bitter comment, with Reverend Wright. He was still able to do it. I would advise him to continue a steady pace and continue his message. Not to get into the gutter, not to go down and start slinging mud.

GREGORY: All right. We're going to take a quick break, Maria Teresa Petersen, thank you very much.

We will take a break here and have some concluding thoughts on our coverage here on a big night for Hillary Clinton in Pennsylvania. This is MSNBC, the place for politics. We'll be right back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

GREGORY: We are back. A big night for Hillary Clinton. A decisive win in Pennsylvania. Looks to be a 10-point margin in our remaining moments. Ninety-five percent of the precincts reporting. Fifty five to forty five for Hillary Clinton. A popular vote gain for her. So it would seem if you listen to her campaign manager.

And she nets looks like about 200,000 tonight. She still needs a lot more. Around the horn, our RACE FOR THE WHITE HOUSE panel on what we look for now on our remaining moments the next couple of weeks before Indiana and North Carolina. Start with you pat.

BUCHANAN: I think Barack Obama should shore up North Carolina and really make a battle of it in Indiana. We were listening to Howard. I would frankly take the advice of Daschle. I don't know that I would start playing get rough with Hillary Rodham Clinton. I don't know that he's any good at that kind of game. I think Hillary Clinton's game, what we saw succeeding in the last week for her in Pennsylvania.

GREGORY: She would bring him down if he does that, in other words?

BUCHANAN: She thinks she has a winning hand. And that's what she's going to try to do and I might try to stay above that battle.


GREGORY: Rachel, what do you see?

MADDOW: At this point I think it's process, process. Not so much the substance of the campaigns anymore. You might remember about a year and a half ago a guy named Atrios coined the term called the Friedman unit which was making fun of "New York Times" columnist Tom Friedman for constantly predicting that in six months we'll know if Iraq is going to be a success. And he kept predicting that over and over and over again. So a six-month period became known as a Friedman unit. I think the Griedman unit is two weeks. Two weeks it is going to be over. It's going to be clear who the nominee is. It wasn't true on Super Tuesday, it wasn't true for the Potomac primaries, it wasn't true ion Texas and Ohio, was not true tonight, not going to be true in Indiana and North Carolina. There's no decisive moment. There's no decisive moment coming. The superdelegates will have to be pushed.

GREGORY: All right. About 45 seconds left, Gene.

ROBINSON: I'd say North Carolina becomes a must-win for Obama.

Indiana is not necessarily a must win but the one thing he has to do is get in the next two weeks is get his mojo back.

GREGORY: All right. Thank to a great panel. Big night for Hillary Clinton. Ten-point edge in Pennsylvania. The race goes on to Indiana, on to North Carolina. A lot more campaigning ahead. Before this Democratic nomination is decided.

We'll see you tomorrow night RACE FOR THE WHITE HOUSE, 6:00 p.m.

Eastern Time. Only here on MSNBC, the place for politics. Good night.