Ohio, Texas, Rhode Island, and Vermont Primaries Coverage for March 4, 6:00 - 2:00 a.m. ET

KEITH OLBERMANN, MSNBC ANCHOR: Floodwaters in Ohio sent perhaps to aid political reporters, desperate and weary, already out of analogies and imagery, and it's only March.

But what better way to describe a candidate with an 11-state winning streak than to call it a flood tide or his opponent as piling up sandbags. Of course, in this equation, she can be up to her neck and still say there has been no breach.

Plenty of room for you on our bridge over troubled waters. It is voter night in America.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Vermont, Ohio, Texas, Rhode Island. Voters. Barack Obama's chance to make his voter lead almost insurmountable. Hillary Clinton's chance to make his momentum a thing of the past. Or most likely still, in this crazy primary season of MC-Usher like perceptions, these mutually exclusive things will both happen.


BILL CLINTON, FORMER U.S. PRESIDENT: If she wins in Texas and Ohio, I think she'll be the nominee. If you don't deliver for her, I don't think she can be.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: If that happens, of course, she may wind up disagreeing with him. With the analysis of NBC's Tim Russert, Tom Brokaw, David Gregory, Norah O'Donnell with the exit polls, and Chuck Todd on the vital delegate math, by the numbers. With Lester Holt inside the caucuses in Houston, Ron Allen at the Board of Elections in Ohio. Andrea Mitchell with the Clinton campaign in Columbus, Lee Cowan at Obama headquarters in San Antonio. Kelly O'Donnell with the McCain camp as it seeks to wrap up the GOP nomination in Dallas. Howard Fineman at the campaign listening post. And the MSNBC panel, Joe Scarborough, Pat Buchanan, Rachel Maddow and Eugene Robinson.

This is MSNBC's coverage of the Ohio, Texas, Vermont and Rhode Island primaries.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

OLBERMANN: And welcome to our MSNBC and NBC News world headquarters in New

York. Alongside Chris Matthews, I'm Keith Olbermann.

Bill Richardson called it D-Day for the Democrats, Chris. Is it going to be decisive or just divisive tonight?

CHRIS MATTHEWS, MSNBC ANCHOR: Well, I think some people think this is the last dance. I think they're going to Pennsylvania for the polka for seven more weeks. I think this is not going to end no matter what we report, although it's going to be exciting because as you know the results will be coming in throughout the evening from Rhode Island, Vermont, Ohio, and Texas. And we may not have a good solid victory by midnight. This could go on into the morning.

OLBERMANN: And if you've ever heard of six weeks of the Pennsylvania polka, obviously in the movie "Groundhog Day."

MATTHEWS: You got to be ready to roll out the barrel for this one.

OLBERMANN: That's the same. The same one again and again and again.

We are, before we get any results, going to get results of our early exit polling. Norah O'Donnell will be covering that desk for us, as always, is back tonight.


Good to see you. Give us a preview of what we have at this hour.

NORAH O'DONNELL, MSNBC CORRESPONDENT: Good evening to you, Keith and to

Chris, and of course, the economy, the big issue, of course, in all these

four states voting today. NAFTA a huge issue in the state of Ohio. Also

we're finding in Texas and Ohio, those big states we're watching tonight,

change is still more important than experience according to voters.


And also we're going to have some interesting information about what voters think, whether they think one of the candidates, either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama, has been more negative than the other in their attacks.

OLBERMANN: That would be extraordinary. Change ahead of experience.

Thank you, Norah. We'll see you at the exit poll in the virtual room.

O'DONNELL: You're welcome.

OLBERMANN: (INAUDIBLE) virtual. Chris?

MATTHEWS: For more of what's at stake and what to look for tonight, we turn to Chuck Todd, political director for NBC News. You're also our TV guide tonight here at MSNBC, Chuck.


So you're the TV guide right now. What can we expect as the evening progresses starting now?

CHUCK TODD, MSNBC POLITICAL DIRECTOR: All right. So let's start at 7:00. That's when polls close in Vermont. And there's just a magic number to watch for. This is the state we all expect Obama to do well. The question is how well. Watch for this number, 64 percent. Why does this number matter? If he gets this or more then he gets 10 of the 15 delegates. If he gets less than 64 percent, then it's only nine-six or even fewer. And that - obviously he wants a plus five delegate cushion going into the rest of the night.

So 64 percent. It's worth watching. And even if for some reason you think this race is over, watch those percentages closely in Vermont.

MATTHEWS: What about - what's the second one to come in tonight?

TODD: 7:30 one of the big ones. Ohio. Early polls closed. First thing, let's do all the big warnings. It's Ohio. They always figure out how to keep some polling place open later. Obviously we've talked about the floods in the opening. Who knows, there will be lots of excuses.

But what's going to make this even a longer night, forget how close things could be in the statewide vote between Clinton and Obama, it's the simple fact that all of the big delegate prizes in these congressional districts are in northeast Ohio. Northeast Ohio always counts late, particularly Cuyahoga County, which by the way has the biggest delegate prize.

Stephanie Tubb Jones, the African-American congresswoman there, represents an African-American district. That's one Obama hopes to run up the score. The other big prize in the night, also in northeast Ohio, but in the working class section there in - Jim Traffic cancelled district, represented now by Tim Ryan. It's his office. Wanted to make sure we say Tim Ryan more than we do Jim Traffic. That's a seven-delegate prize.

Working class, blue-collar, this is Youngstown, Chris. This is almost the polar opposite of the voter - of that latte voter that a lot of people like to talk about. And as far as sort of the cities versus the urban, you've got Barack Obama wanting to run up the score in Cleveland and Cincinnati, hold his own in Columbus. And hopefully he thinks hold his own in Toledo. We don't have toledo marked but I promise you that's where Toledo is.

Then you've got Hillary Clinton who's hoping to do very well here along southern Ohio. A lot of working class vote there. I talked about Youngstown, which is over here again. I promise you that's where Youngstown is.

And there's always my favorite swing area in the world, Dayton, Ohio, the original swing - district swing city. It's sort of - sometimes it's working class, sometimes it's rising higher educated area. It's a very interesting area to watch. So keep an eye on those areas as the night moves on.

MATTHEWS: Now to Texas.

TODD: Let's go to Texas. The Texas, some polls - all polls close at 7:00 local, which means Central Time. That's 8:00 in most of the state, 9:00 in El Paso. This is really a fascinating race and one where it's all favors Obama because of the way they allocate delegates.


He's trying to run up the score in Dallas, Houston and Austin. That's very important for him. Why? All of the way the delegates are allocated by the state Senate districts, all of them, heavy African-American districts in Dallas. Heavy African-American districts in Houston. By the way, some Katrina evacuees. How many of them were registered to vote for this primary?

And then Austin, one of the ultimate latte cities in this country. Hillary Clinton obviously wants to do well along the border, in the more rural parts of the area, El Paso, places like that, and then hold her own in Houston. There's some areas in Houston she should do well.

MATTHEWS: OK. We'll get more on Rhode Island in a minute.

Thank you, Chuck Todd.

TODD: You got it.

OLBERMANN: Thanks, Chuck.

All right. Let's go to Tim Russert, NBC's Washington bureau chief, of course, moderator of "Meet the Press." As we begin coverage tonight, give us the overview, Tim. What are you looking for? What are we looking for?

TIM RUSSERT, NBC NEWS WASHINGTON BUREAU CHIEF: Well, Keith, the best thing

for us, I think, is to talk to the campaigns because you get a sense of the

spin that's coming.

Obama's people will say, you know, we were down 20 points in Texas and Ohio. We've made a considerable comeback. If we get close and hold her to no significant net win of delegates, we'll have done our job. The Clinton people will counter, wait a minute, Obama won 11 primaries in a row. If we stop him tonight with a win in the popular vote in Texas and/or Ohio, that's interrupting his momentum. And that means we're resetting the race. We're back in the game.

You know, the interesting thing, Keith, will be the Clinton people will be focusing on the popular vote, the Obama people on the delegates tonight. One interesting question in our exit polls that we already can talk about, we asked the voters of the four states whether they thought that the so-called superdelegates should vote for the winners of the caucuses and primaries or vote for who they in their own judgment think is most electable.


And by a margin of almost two-to one, the voters are saying the superdelegates should vote for the winners of the caucuses and primaries, which is very, very significant in that if Senator Clinton does not make some significant inroads in the elected delegate count tonight, she's going to have to be very reliant on convincing superdelegates to switch into her column, even though Obama may have a lead amongst the elected delegates.

And so I think this will be another piece of information that will be debated by both campaigns and looked at by superdelegates throughout the country.

OLBERMANN: A shocking news, Tim, that voters prefer to have voters decide votes. Take something else that Nora hinted at in her preview of what's coming up in our - we'll look at the exit polls in a couple minutes. This idea of change over experience. Does that read as simply as one would expect it to in Obama versus Clinton? Is that a big flag went up to celebrate in Obama headquarters when they hears that statistic?

RUSSERT: Sure. And that's why Clinton people have worked overtime trying to say that you cannot have change without experience. And therefore, we are the change candidates.

We will see some difference, I think, in this state in terms of the issues. Ohio overwhelmingly economy, economy, economy. Texas significant concern about the war and health care. And so I think that's important to keep minding that kind of data as to what is driving this Democratic base and what nuance may shift one state or another.

MATTHEWS: Tim, do you think there's going to be any kind of emissary or - what should I say, contingent of Democrats, big shots, going to see Senator Clinton in any of the scenarios that are feasible tonight to tell her it's over?

RUSSERT: It all depends what happens. If, in fact, she wins, Ohio, Texas, Rhode Island, she will say, get away from me. I'm staying in this race, I'm going. Well - but Senator, you didn't win many enough delegates. Well, that's OK. There's a lot more to go and anything can happen. And it's clear the voters want to keep this race going.

If she wins one big state and loses another state, you know, there - some people will say publicly, as Bill Richardson said over the weekend, well, perhaps this should be D-Day, in his words.

But you know, Chris, there is no contingent of big shot Democrats. They pretty much aligned themselves. And you know, absent, I guess, Al Gore, there's nobody out there who is truly been involved in politics for a long, long time, has the depth and the gravitas who has not committed himself than someone like Gore. But I think it's way too early for anyone to do that based on what we don't know right now.

OLBERMANN: And you've just then deposited another interesting idea, the idea of Al Gore going to sort of broker some sort of vote decision that can't be decided by ordinary means. Might be worth it just for the irony alone.

Tim Russert, great, thanks. We'll check back with you.

MATTHEWS: 537.


OLBERMANN: Yes. Get - go ahead. Get your board. We'll wait. All right. Thanks, Tim.

RUSSERT: All right, Keith.

OLBERMANN: As we've been promising, a full look at the first round of exit poll numbers. For that we turn to Norah O'Donnell.

Norah, good evening again.

O'DONNELL: Good evening to you, Keith. And you were just talking about this with Tim Russert. And of course, tonight the economy is the number one issue in each of the four states voting today.

One of the key concerns is jobs, particularly in Ohio and Texas, where there has been a lot of talk about the NAFTA trade agreement with Canada and Mexico. Both candidates have said that they would renegotiate NAFTA if they became president. That's what - you heard it on our debate here on MSNBC. And I can tell you what, based on these numbers you can see why the candidates said that.

First in Ohio, a whopping eight in ten Democratic primary voters feel international trade agreements take more jobs away than they create. Buckeye state Democrats are even more negative about NAFTA than they were four years ago. In Ohio, union voters, non-union voters, the young and the old, they are all down on NAFTA. And in fact, an identical number of Clinton voters and Obama voters see trade agreements taking jobs away.

Now what about in Texas where we might expect that voters be more - might be more positive about that? Well, even there they are critical of trade agreements. Then that stated that they significantly outnumber those who see the tax providing a net job gain. What I mean here is, say, look, six out of ten say it hurts jobs while only a quarter see job creation as the bigger affect.

And when we come back in just about half an hour from now, we're going to take a look at those independent voters in tonight's Democratic primaries, open primaries, very significant number, Chris and Keith.

OLBERMANN: Norah O'Donnell with first set of exit polls.

Thank you, Norah.

O'DONNELL: You're welcome.


MATTHEWS: Now time to introduce our panel tonight. MSNBC's Joe Scarborough, the host of "MORNING JOE," "The Washington Post's" Eugene Robinson, he's MSNBC political analyst, MSNBC political analyst Pat Buchanan, and Air America Radio's Rachel Maddow, who's also an MSNBC political analyst.

Take it away, Joe.

JOE SCARBOROUGH, HOST, "MORNING JOE": All right. Thanks a lot.

Pat Buchanan, what are you ago looking for tonight?

PAT BUCHANAN, MSNBC POLITICAL ANALYST: What am I looking for tonight? Well, I think there's been a deceleration in the campaign of Obama in the last week since last we met. I think the Farrakhan he's been hit with, the Canadian thing, the NAFTA thing, the red telephone.

I'm looking to see if Hillary rodham Clinton has broken the momentum in time to - still win Ohio and/or Texas, or whether his early momentum and the early voting is going to take it away.

SCARBOROUGH: Rachel, it does seem like Hillary Clinton has some momentum. If she has some momentum, let's say she wins one of two states or two of two of the big states tonight, she has been outspent three to four to one. For every four Obama ads you've seen in Texas, you've only seen one Hillary ad. And yet, seems like the wind's at her back. That's bad news for Obama. Does that mean he can't close the sell?

RACHEL MADDOW, MSNBC POLITICAL ANALYST: Well, I mean, still the best case

scenario for Clinton in the headlines tomorrow is Clinton goes one in 15,

you know, or 2 in 15. Really, it's.

SCARBOROUGH: Well then, how about this?

MADDOW: Yes.


SCARBOROUG: This is the headline. Clinton wins every state Democrats have to win to beat McCain in November.

MADDOW: Well, you know.

SCARBOROUGH: That's a good headline, too, isn't it?

MADDOW: It's a good headline. But.

SCARBOROUGH: Yes, it's a great headline.

MADDOW: Listen, Joe, you.

SCARBOROUGH: We'll give you Kansas. We'll take Ohio, Obama.

MADDOW: You know, Joe, I mean, you can do backflips to come up with a spin for any of these things. But the fact remains that the Clinton campaign has had to pull rabbits out of hats in order to explain why they are still in the race and why they are not dropping out if it's going to hurt the Democratic chance in November.

SCARBOROUGH: Gene Robinson, if you're a superdelegate and you want to beat John McCain in November, are you going to just ask the person that wins New York, California, New Jersey, Ohio, Texas, these big states, if she wins those tonight, are you going to tell her get out of the race? We want to take the guy that's lost tonight, despite the fact he's been outspent four to one.

EUGENE ROBINSON, THE WASHINGTON POST: It depends. It actually depends on.

SCARBOROUGH: On what?

ROBINSON: On where we end up at the end of the night. If she wins one state, I think you might go to her and say, look, it's time to give up.


SCARBOROUGH: If she wins Ohio.

ROBINSON: If she wins Ohio and Texas, if she wins both of them, then you might want to wait a while if you're a superdelegate. But by the way, what's the state the Democrats have to win. I would count Illinois, I might count Missouri.

SCARBOROUGH: That's his home state. Good lord.

ROBINSON: Yes, but.

SCARBOROUGH: That's his home state.

ROBINSON: New York is hers, so.

MADDOW: It sounds like John McCain.

(CROSSTALK)

BUCHANAN: We've been talking in terms of.

MADDOW: John McCain is not going to win in New Jersey. John McCain is not going to win California. John McCain is not going to win New York state. So Democrats are going to win those either way. (INAUDIBLE)

BUCHANAN: We've been talking about how bad it's going to be in the Democratic Party if something terrible is done to poor Barack Obama. Let me tell you. I was down in Miami Dade, came up - I talked to four women who told me if Barack gets this thing, I'm a Hillary person, I'm going for McCain. There are a lot of women out there who have a strong vested interest and are as dedicated to Hillary as African-Americans are to Barack Obama.

SCARBOROUGH: Every single time I hear.


BUCHANAN: Let me tell you - and if she is perceived as being pushed out of the race, you know, Rachel Maddow's word, get out for the good of the party, I think you're going to have a real problem.

SCARBOROUGH: You know, every single time, Gene, I start hearing women in my family, my very Republican family saying it's terrible what they are doing to Hillary Clinton. I know it's time for Barack Obama to duck. They did it before New Hampshire. They did it before California, and I've been hearing it all week.

ROBINSON: Yes. Well, it's true. She has some dedicated supporters.

SCARBOROUGH: Women.

ROBINSON: Up to now she hasn't had as many as he's had. But we'll see what happens tonight.

SCARBOROUGH: Yes, we'll see.

BUCHANAN: Yes.

SCARBOROUGH: I am strong. I am invincible. I am woman. Will they stand up for Hillary Clinton tonight? We'll see.

Keith and Chris, back to you.

OLBERMANN: Well, thanks for finally admitting it, Joe.

Thank you much, Joe Scarborough and...

MATTHEWS: It's good enough for Helen Redy(ph).


OLBERMANN: Joe Scarborough and some of the panel on occasion.

When Chris and I return we'll go live in Ohio for the latest there where weather may have been the big winner or made big losers out of both Democrats. There's been an issue all day. And we'll talk to supporters, representatives of both the Clinton and Obama campaigns as we move closer to the first results of the night. That's just 42 minutes away.

MSNBC's DECISION 2008 coverage continues after this.

ANNOUNCER: MSNBC DECISION 2008 is brought to you by.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

OLBERMANN: And we rejoin you with MSNBC's continuing coverage of the primaries in Ohio, Texas, Vermont and Rhode Island. Polls in Ohio closing in just over an hour, about an hour and nine minutes at 7:30 Eastern. And one worry all day has been the weather. Of course, the other worry all day in Ohio is they're voting in Ohio and that's always a crap shoot.

NBC's Ron Allen is at the Board of Elections in Cleveland as these two issues merge.

Ron, good evening.

RON ALLEN, NBC NEWS CORRESPONDENT: Yes, I think you're right. There is a lot of concern about the vote here tonight in Ohio. But first the weather. There has been a lot of concern because there's been a wintry mix of rain, sleet, and snow falling across much of the state today.

There've been some reports of flooding down in the southeast. But it's very minor from what I understand. There's only been a few precincts that had to be moved in one place to another. There is also a number of election officials who got orders from judges so they could move election sites around and use provisional ballots in case things got bad. But it has not gotten that bad so far - as far as I understand.

The big concern, yes, is that tonight here in Cleveland, especially they are using brand-new voting system that is all of 75 or 80 days old. They are going to be using paper ballots, sort of like those ballots - sort of like those forms that you use when you take a standard (INAUDIBLE) test in school or you fill out a (INAUDIBLE) with an ink pen or a pencil. Then they're put through optical scanning machines and counted.

Here they've been trying to get rid of the electronic touch screen systems because of concerns about security and getting an accurate count. And all this, of course, goes back to 2004 when President Bush won here by some 120,000 votes igniting a real controversy to this day about how Ohio conducts its elections.


So yes, they're in the spotlight here. Things seem to be going smoothly as far as we understand. They are expecting record turnout, somewhere around 50 percent, which is an incredible number for a primary. But again, the big concern is tonight, when they start counting, using these brand-new machines that have really never been put to the test under real-time circumstances before.

OLBERMANN: Some things change and some things stay the same even when they do change.

Ron Allen at the Board of Elections in Cleveland, Ohio.

Thank you, Ron. We'll check back with - with you later.

Chris?

MATTHEWS: We're joined right now by supporters of both Democratic candidates.

Kweisi Mfume backing Senator Obama and Lisa Caputo served as press secretary to - Senator Clinton when she was first lady.

Lisa, I want to start with you. Give me the rosey scenario as you see it for your candidate's victory in the Democratic fight for the nomination.

LISA CAPUTO, FMR. HILLARY CLINTON PRESS SECRETARY: Well, the rosey scenario would be, Chris, that she wins Texas, Ohio, Rhode Island and Vermont, although I think Vermont will be a stretch. But that she wins those three states, Texas, Ohio and Rhode Island, handily by a good margin.

I think, though, what the Clinton campaign wants to see is a victory no matter what. They want to stop Obama's momentum. And I think everybody would agree, she's had a very good agree. She's drawing lines in the sand, showing a difference between herself and Senator Obama. Who's ready to be the commander in chief? Lining up a bunch of endorsements from military officials, up on the air with this ad, you know, who's ready to take that phone call at 3:00 a.m.?

So I think that she's tried to change the debate and has done so successfully over the last week.

MATTHEWS: Let me ask Congressman Kweisi Mfume the same question, the ideal scenario for your candidate starting tonight when we start counting these votes.


KWEISI MFUME, OBAMA SUPPORTER: Well, the ideal scenario is to win more delegates than Mrs. Clinton, and that's been the scenario all along. And interestingly enough, we've been able to do that.

Senator Obama's message continues to resonate. I was with him Sunday out in Ohio. I've watched people of all stripes, of all walks of life, gravitate to this message. It's simply amazing. I can't begin to tell you and I've been dealing with Democratic politics since 1980s when I was a Kennedy delegate and a Jackson delegate and on and on and on.

There's something different happening and it's happening all over the place including Ohio, Rhode Island, Vermont and Texas. I think what you're going to see is a continued increase in the vote total, meaning an increase also in the delegate total for Senator Barack Obama.

And by the way, there are only 661 delegates left to be pledged after this contest. So we're getting to the point now where there's a shift, I should say also, in superdelegates toward his way, where I think you're going to see this 160 or so lead that he has in pledged delegates continue to expand.

MATTHEWS: OK. Lisa, that leaves that to you. Take that rosey scenario all the way to Denver, the last week in August.

How does Senator Clinton, assuming she has a blockbuster night tonight, she does win three or four tonight - she goes on and win Pennsylvania, she goes on and has a new election in Florida. Governor Chris, the Republican, gives her that election, she wins down there, the numbers, do they work even then for Senator Clinton? Do they work?

CAPUTO: Well, you know, Congressman Mfume is correct. It's all about the delegates and I think in that scenario you start - have to start to look at the superdelegates, and both Senator Obama and Senator Clinton have said that they want the superdelegates to vote with the will of the people.

So I think what you'll have versus a scenario where if Hillary Clinton does a sweep tonight or at least three out of four, she stops the Obama momentum going into Pennsylvania and going into the later states, clearly has her own momentum and she - again, she has changed the debate. And I think you've seen Senator Obama on the defensive for the first time in a long while over this past week on the issue of national security, on the issue of NAFTA, and I think that puts her in great position going into the convention.

And I think, you know, then the superdelegates become up for grabs. No one has the superdelegate in their back pocket.

MATTHEWS: Just last question, Congressman, I've got to ask you.

If the superdelegates vote against the will of the elected delegates, is that trouble at the convention?

MFUME: Well, I think it's trouble at the convention, but it's also a trouble for the superdelegates. I mean, I think your exit polling in Ohio showed that even there, people expect superdelegates to follow the will of the people. And I think what we're seeing are superdelegates changing their minds, beginning with John Lewis and perhaps many before him and many hopefully after him.


But you know, the interesting thing is that Senator Obama has not been on the defensive. He's been simply going through the issues and taking the issues to people. And this thing about phone ringing at 3:00 in the morning, it's not a matter of who picks up the phone, it's the matter of who has the right judgment and temperament when they pick up the phone. And I think the senator has clearly proven that.

Jay Rockefeller was - together with he and myself out in Ohio over the weekend and said, this is the person that you want on real issues on national security. He was the one who read the national security report that said we shouldn't go in Iraq. Mrs. Clinton didn't read it, unfortunately, and voted to invade.

CAPUTO: Well, Chris.

MATTHEWS: OK. Thank you. Go ahead.

CAPUTO: You and I both know he didn't have to vote, so.

MATTHEWS: OK. Thank you very much, Lisa Caputo. Thank you very much, former congressman, former head of the NAACP, Kweisi Mfume.

MFUME: Thank you.

OLBERMANN: And he didn't have to read it either.

When Chris and I return in a moment, ahead we'll have new information from our exit polling plus Senator John Kerry, an Obama supporter, will be with us.

MSNBC's DECISION 2008 coverage continues after this.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

MATTHEWS: We're back with MSNBC's live Decision 2008 coverage. Polls will be closed in the first state of the night Vermont in now just 30 minutes. We're getting to the news of the night and it's coming on strong. Tonight, John McCain can go over the top, by the way, and win the Republican nomination tonight.


Michelle Bernard is an MSNBC political analyst and is with the group Independent Women's Voice. It's somewhat anti-climactic and it's not on the main stage tonight, but tell me what you think of the importance of John McCain coming back really Lazarus-like from where he was last summer.

MICHELLE BERNARD, INDEPENDENT WOMEN'S VOICE: I think it's been absolutely amazing. We've heard it commonly referred to as the resurrection of John McCain. Really, he had been left out completely for dead. For many months, we went on with no one talking about John McCain. It was, is the Republican nominee going to be Rudy Giuliani or is it going to be Mitt Romney. I think even John McCain was scratching his head earlier this winter, just saying, who would have ever thought it.

So this has been a pretty amazing feat for him and I think that he is

as we have seen, for example, the media has completely forgotten about Governor Huckabee. This is John McCain's time. I think he is paying very close attention to both Senator Clinton and Senator Obama. I suspect we'll see him taking a page out of some of their advertisements and looking forward to the general election in November. He's just moving onward and moving forward.

MATTHEWS: Speaking of the general election, fairly or not, he does

have an opportunity, given his maverick reputation, to go down the middle

in Pennsylvania. We is he still over there currying the favor of people

like Pastor Hagee? Why is he still fighting the old war of trying to woo

over the cultural right, when his challenge now is to go down the center,

carry California, carry Maine, carry New Jersey and beat the Democrats?

Why is he fighting the old war?

BERNARD: I've got to tell you, I don't disagree with you. I'm sort of trying to figure it out myself. I mean, the conservative part of the base is an important part of the base. But for better or worse, the Republican party is fractured, and that part of the base is never, ever going to wrapt their arms around John McCain and come to the rescue in November.


I think he's trying to pull the party back together, but the bottom line is he is a maverick. Independents, conservative Democrats, moderate Republicans, that is his base. I think he doesn't want to thumb his nose at the conservative part of the base, that basically feels that he has sort of poo-pooed them all along. But the chances of him really wooing them and bringing them in in large masses, I think, is going to be pretty, and he would be better off by picking a vice presidential running mate that can woo that part of the base.

MATTHEWS: I've got a better idea. What date between now and the election in November will he drop this promise of a 100 year war in Iraq?

BERNARD: I don't think that's going to happen.

MATTHEWS: I don't even think the 100 Years War was predicted or promised to be 100 years by the king who started it. The idea was they got stuck with it. You know, wouldn't it be smarter to say, let's win this baby and come home?

BERNARD: Well, I -

MATTHEWS: I'm just thinking politically here. Wouldn't that be a better promise to the American people? Ike brought our boys home, our girls home, our women home.

BERNARD: Chris, when has John McCain ever done what is necessarily the politically correct thing to do? The bottom line is, you think about Japan, if you think about South Korea, if you think about Germany, we have had people in those countries for many, many, many years, and I think that he would feel that he was being untrue to himself.

MATTHEWS: Well you're wrong because the war stopped there in 1945 and we haven't been fighting a war on those fronts. We're fighting a war in Iraq. It's if the war goes on, not the occupation. We're in a war zone in Iraq and that's the problem. If it were quiet - there hasn't been a Nazi shooting at us since 1945, of course we're happy in Germany. Is it the same?

BERNARD: It's not the same, but I don't think he's saying we're going to be at war in Iraq for the next 100 years. I think he is trying to make a distinction and say that we're going to have a presence in Iraq for a long time.

MATTHEWS: If they're shooting at you, it's a war. Michelle, thank you. I'm being tough because I think he's wrong on this one. Anyway, thank you Michelle Bernard.

We'll be right back with you throughout the night. We'll talk about Iraq, the economy, health care and all the hot issues that are driving these primaries tonight all across the country.

Up next, new numbers from our exit polling. Plus, NBC's David Gregory is joining, and Senator John Kerry, who is supporting Barack Obama. MSNBC's Decision 2008 coverage continues after this.


(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

OLBERMANN: We rejoin you with MSNBC's live coverage of the primaries in Ohio, Texas, Rhode Island and Vermont, under the acronym VOTR. Top of the hour, we'll have the first results of the night. The polls closing in Vermont. Then at 7:30 Eastern, polls close in Ohio. Presumably, there might be some delay in there because of weather.

One of the two big states up for grabs tonight. The other being Texas. At 9:00 Eastern, the polls in the great state will close, as well as those in Rhode Island. All of it counts.

Let's check in with the campaigns now. We'll begin with the Clinton campaign. Andrea Mitchell will be in Columbus, Ohio, where the Clinton headquarters is based. Andrea, good evening.

ANDREA MITCHELL, NBC NEWS CORRESPONDENT: Good evening, Keith. There's a lot of enthusiasm tonight in the Clinton camp. I just talked to Terry McAuliffe, her campaign manager, finance manager, and they think they've got a real shot at both Ohio and Texas. Even though there's been some tightening, they're getting very good reports from the field in Rhode Island.

So there's a lot of excitement, frankly, in the Clinton camp that hasn't been here in a while. She has been the one person who has been placid throughout. She's been working really hard. She's up at plant gates before 5:30 in the morning, doing interviews, going out and going all over Texas, before we came here to Ohio. There was a lot of panic, frankly, within some parts of the team, a lot of dissension in the rank, back stabbing, back and forth, finger pointing, the blame game.

She's been the one person who has really held it all together throughout this period. She seems to feel - I talked to her earlier today in Ohio. She thinks she's got a real shot at this.

OLBERMANN: What does she do, Andrea, if she wins one of the above and not both in the big states,if she wins Texas or Ohio, but not the other. What does she do about this quote from 13 days ago when her husband said in Texas, it she wins Texas and Ohio, I think she'll be the nominee. If you, meaning the Texans, don't deliver for her, I don't think she can be. Does she disavow him from the campaign? What happens?

MITCHELL: I asked her about that today. We were in a Mexican restaurant in Dallas. She said, look I'm not going to make predictions. I think we're doing very well in Ohio. I think we're competitive in Texas. I'm not going to talk about tomorrow. She's really not dealing with that very tough question.

Bill Richardson, who is about to endorse Obama, we were told, said on Sunday on "Face the Nation" that she had to win both. He said, whoever is ahead in delegates Wednesday morning should be the nominee. That clearly will be Barack Obama, because even if she wins these state tonight, she's not going to catch up in delegates. She doesn't have enough of a lead in any of these states from, everything we've been able to tell so far and from the turn out so far, to catch up in delegates.

So that's not going to happen. What about Ed Rendell? When I did an interview with him last Thursday, the governor of the next big state of Pennsylvania, April 22nd, he said that if she doesn't win both, she has to get out. That's not the signal coming from her. She said yesterday, I'm just warming up.

MATTHEWS: Andrea, candidates never admit strategy, but it seems like Senator Clinton has a tough strategy that may well work tonight, which is one, throw the kitchen sink, everything from NAFTA, even discussing the guy's religion, going after him in a number of regards very effectively. At the same time, going around the softer talk shows, "SNL," Jon Stewart, and offering herself up almost as a target for witticism in a way that makes her somewhat vulnerable.


Is this calculated, this one-two punch of hers.

MITCHELL: You bet. They think the NAFTA argument really worked to bring home the labor vote, the white men, the working class vote in Ohio, a critical vote. She can't win Ohio without that. She seems to be doing better, according to the early indications that they're getting from the field, among women. Women are coming home to her, she thinks. That could be portraying herself as a victim, but also portraying herself as a fighter.

She's been very effective at the rallies I've been to. They're not that well attended. But in Ohio and in Texas, it seems to be effective to describe herself as a fighter. You first heard that in real percussive way in the debate in Cleveland last week. Every since, she's been talking about herself as a fighter over and over again. Then, as you pointed out, the second part of the punch is to go soft, to be on the David Letterman, to be on "Saturday Night Live," to do Jon Stewart last night.

That portrays the warmer, kinder Hillary Clinton that we saw at the tail end of the New Hampshire primary election, when she also was able to come back. They are pretty enthusiastic.

OLBERMANN: Andrea Mitchell at the Columbus Clinton headquarters.

Thank you Andrea. We'll check back with you later on.

Before we go out to Lee Cowan, just to give you an idea of what's happening with the weather and voting in Ohio. Claremont County, Ohio ran out of Democratic ballots by early evening. There was also an outage of that in Milford by 2:45 in the afternoon. Any thought that there was going to be suppressed Ohio voting by weather at least is out the window. As promised to the Obama campaign, it's already based in San Antonio, Texas.

Lee Cowan has been following the Obama campaign all through the primary season for us and joins us now from there. Lee, good evening.

LEE COWAN, NBC NEWS CORRESPONDENT: Hi, Keith. I think what the Obama

campaign is saying tonight is this really all about the delegate count. As

Andrea was saying, they suggest that the Hillary Clinton campaign keeps

moving the goal post a little bit. First, they had to win both states.


First they had to win both states big. Now it seems to be that they are

saying, if they win both states relatively closely or even one of them,

that would be enough to keep them in the race.

What the Obama campaign keeps pointing out is that it seems to then be a mathematical impossibility, really, unless she does exceptionally well. Even if she does, it's still not going to be enough to make up that delegate gap. They think, no matter what happens tonight, that they are still going to come out ahead in the delegate count and ahead in terms of the number of states won.

OLBERMANN: Are they getting the Richardson endorsement? We heard Andrea say that, that there was some anticipation of that for Obama. Do you hear anything about that there?

COWAN: They have been talking back and forth. They have been talking quite extensively over the last couple of weeks, but nothing firm. They clearly want it. The Campaign says they would certainly love to have Richardson's support. But no note on it yet, no.

OLBERMANN: Lee Cowan at the Municipal Auditorium in San Antonio with the Obama campaign. We'll check back with you, of course, presently. Thank you, Lee.

Let's go back to Norah O'Donnell, more exit polling numbers. The number of independents voting tonight. This can be interrupted in a lot of ways, but I guess the raw number is the most important thing off the top.

O'DONNELL: Yes, it's really interesting, Keith. You know, independents have been a factor in this year's Democratic presidential race. Tonight, the early exit polls show independents are a significant chunk of the electorate in Ohio, Texas, Rhode Island and Vermont. Our NBC News exit polls suggest that with the GOP race essentially settled, there are some Republicans who are choosing to vote in the Democratic primary.

First, let's look at the party identification mix in Ohio; there are 22 percent of those voting consider themselves independents there. You can see that there. That's more than in 2000. But look at the Republican cross overs down here. That's really interesting, ten percent this year. That's five times as many as in the last election.

Now, in Texas, independents make up one in four of the Democratic primary voters. This group is larger than they were four years ago. See that. Also in Texas, there is again that bigger Republican cross over in this primary than in the last election. It's kind of interesting.

You wonder whether there's some Republican appeal, whether they want to vote in the primary. Also, Keith, Rush Limbaugh has called for Republicans to cross over and vote for Clinton, essentially to bloody up Obama. Those were the woods he used. He may have planted that idea, in a sense, quote, unquote, giving permission to Republicans to cross party lines.


But that is a significant number that has decided to vote today.

OLBERMANN: It's even more than just bloodying up, Norah. Bill Clinton went on Rush Limbaugh's show with a guest host this afternoon, if you can imagine such a thing. That's how desperate we are for votes in this primary.

MATTHEWS: There were some Republicans I heard from today in Texas who voted for Hillary Clinton, because they want her to be the nominee. They switched over for that reason. That's really strategory, as President Bush would put it.

Anyway, NBC News chief White House correspondent David Gregory is here with us to talk about some of the questions that may get answered tonight. David, I think the hardest job tonight may well be to write a headline tomorrow morning that puts this all together.

DAVID GREGORY, NBC NEWS CHIEF WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Yes, I think

that's right. I think the question is whether there was a game changer.

That's what we've been waiting for for weeks, maybe even the last couple of

months. Can Hillary Clinton do something to change the dynamic in this

race. She's down 11 and 0.

What's changed now, we go back to New Hampshire - we know something changed there in the last couple of days before the vote. Has something changed in the past week. She was up big in Texas and Ohio. Barack Obama came back. He's had all of this resurgence. He's kept on going.

Has Hillary Clinton been able to change the dynamic last week? Questions about his positioning on NAFTA, a big issue, free trade with working class Democrats in Ohio. On the question of experience; in other words, has she been able to not out-change him, not out-brand him, but take him down? Does Hillary Clinton get something in the way of the results tonight, do voters answer a question for her about her tactics in the last week that give her a road map going forward, specifically going negative against Barack Obama and trying to take down what he's offering as a change agent, as a new kind of politics.

MATTHEWS: Can she win that argument in the face of Barack - Senator Obama's argument on the airplane today that he had 20 - she had 20 point leads in Ohio and Texas and he's narrowed them down to a contest in both states?


GREGORY: Right. I think it's a tough argument for her to make and for her to win, unless she wins. Then she's going to be able to say, yes, he was on this trajectory that had him propelled forward. He cut into this lead, but I was able to change the complexion of this race and make the argument that there is buyers' remorse, that there is hesitancy. That once you get right down to it, when voters get in that booth, what stops them for voting for Barack Obama?

Is it the experience question? Is it, gee, if there's a crisis, do I trust her judgment, her instincts, the fact that she's had proximity to power. She knows how the White House works. Is there something that has been raised about him that makes me question his ability to be the president.

I think ultimately she is in the position of raising doubt here, trying to raise reasonable doubt. What she's been unsuccessful at doing is positioning herself as the real change agent. Hillary Clinton's campaign may go back and say, how is it that we were not able to put forward the first woman candidate for the presidency, who had so much momentum, so much establishment backing, and not make her the change agent, to be on this edge of history.

How did he steal all of that? They may be beyond that, but they're not beyond trying to take him down from being everything that he may appear to be to so many.

MATTHEWS: I wonder if that's an appealing story line for the press that's covering this campaign, to say, hey, this game ain't over yet, which is an old broadcaster's claim. Stay with the game. It's not over. Also, that there's a new direction for this campaign, that is going to be this buyers' remorse. That is a story line that might be quite sellable.

GREGORY: It may be, except for the math. That's what Barack Obama's team keeps saying. Stop talking about this in terms of momentum. Talk about the math. Which metric are we supposed to use here. The truth is, if Barack Obama had lost the last 11 contests, would this be viewed differently. Would he still be viewed as having a legitimate shot to get in the game.

One of the problems for Barack Obama he has not won the big ones, California, New York, Ohio. If he can't win there, Hillary Clinton is going to say, look, these are big Democratic states going against a guy like McCain, who can win independent cross over votes and can play in those states.

MATTHEWS: Thank you, David Gregory.

OLBERMANN: Senator John Kerry was the Democratic nominee four years ago. This year, he's stated his support publicly and vociferously for Barack Obama for president. The senator joins us now from Washington. Good to talk to you.

SEN. JOHN KERRY (D), MASSACHUSETTS: Glad to be with you, Keith.

OLBERMANN: Let me read you a quote from Senator Clinton in Toledo yesterday that was a variation of something she said in Austin, Texas Saturday. The senator said, quote, "I think that I have a lifetime of experience that I will bring to the White House. I know Senator McCain has a lifetime of experience he will bring to the White House. Senator Obama has a speech he gave in 2002."

Without discussing the merits of that, did that surprise you? I didn't see an awful lot of coverage of that. It seemed to me that kind of works against Senator Obama in the short run. Did Senator Clinton not say something that works against Senator Clinton in the event she's in the general election?


KERRY: More than that. I think it works against her right now, because it is such an inappropriate and completely untrue statement to make about Barack Obama. Obviously, Barack Obama has a lifetime of experience. His lifetime of experience goes all the way back to Harvard Law School, to the Harvard Law Review, to the streets of Chicago, to teaching law, to being a partner in a law firm, to being a state senator.

In fact, Barack Obama has been a legislator longer than Hillary Clinton. He has more legislative experience than Hillary Clinton. He has more foreign policy experience now than either Ronald Reagan or George Bush had before they became president. In fact, he has more foreign policy experience than Bill Clinton did before he became president.

So it's on its face a kind of insulting and ridiculous comment which doesn't serve her well, I think, in the long run.

OLBERMANN: Do you think that, as the Clinton campaign has already offered tonight, as a postulation of what's happened in the last week, that Senator Obama has taken a series of hits in the last week's time?

KERRY: They have thrown a lot at him, obviously. But what's interesting to me, you guys were talking about the metrics. Look, the question ought to be appropriately asked - I say this to Mr. Gregory, where is - why are they not voting for her overwhelmingly. Everybody knows her. She's been around. Why are they not voting as they were 20 points ahead a few weeks ago?

The story here is that this candidate, Barack Obama, is building an unbelievable coalition across the country. Indeed, he may not win in California or New York or wherever it is, but he took 42 percent out of the vote of New York, her backyard. It's rather extraordinary that he won more delegates in his home state against her than she was able to win in her home state against him. I think that tells you an enormous story.

When you add that to the fact that it's obviously razor thin margin in these states tonight, the bottom line is, as it always has been, as the Clinton campaign itself said it was a little while ago, about delegates. If it's about delegates and it's a razor margin thin, it doesn't really matter who won what tonight. I bet you he wins more delegates as a margin in Vermont than she wins if she wins Ohio or Texas.

That's the story tonight, that mathematically it's very difficult for her to win the nomination if these races are very close tonight.

OLBERMANN: Senator John Kerry of the Obama camp this time around.

Thank you again, senator.

MATTHEWS: Let's go back to the panel with Joe Scarborough.

SCARBOROUGH: Thank you very much. Gene, what matters more right now to the super delegates, the math or the headlines? If Hillary Clinton wins three or four states, she still may be locked out mathematically, but the headlines are awfully enticing.


ROBINSON: Look, if she wins three or four states, it seems to me that what this does is provide for another month or two or however long of campaigning.

SCARBOROUGH: We keep hearing that mathematically it's impossible for her to catch up.

ROBINSON: Right, but it creates a perception. You have the headlines. So I think then the super delegates say probably, well, let's wait and see. What happens next week and what happens the week after that? I think Obama is likely to rack up some more wins. Then the pendulum swings again.

SCARBOROUGH: It swings back and forth. But Pat Buchanan, if she wins Ohio, big if, if she wins Texas, the super delegates aren't going to be sitting there with calculators. They are going to say, Obama just can't knock her out.

BUCHANAN: She's come into Ohio and Texas, and you're telling me she drops out if she wins them both. That's preposterous. Of course, she'll go ahead. She'll go ahead if she wins Ohio and Rhode Island. If she wins Ohio, I think she's going to go ahead. She should. Who are these people, excuse me, telling her to get out of the race. She's been working for ten years for this. Her husband has.

She's running a strong race. As I mentioned earlier, she's like Reagan, trailing four into the convention -

SCARBOROUGH: Rachel, I love Jonathan Alter, but that guy has basically taken a broomstick and just keeps - a lot of other pundits are saying get out, get out.

MADDOW: Anybody saying the mathematical impossibility line I think needs to take a look at what's happened so far in counting the delegates. Every network and every newspaper has a different count.

SCARBOROUGH: Not only that, John Lewis - look at John Lewis, Super delegate. I'm for Hillary Clinton. No, I'm not. I'm for Barack Obama. They can flip.

MADDOW: This will be not decided -

(CROSS TALK)

BUCHANAN: If she wins Ohio and Texas, there will be a freeze on the super delegates. They will panic.


SCARBOROUGH: All right. Panic sets in. Fear and loathing. Let's go back to Chris and Keith.

OLBERMANN: We'll suspend the rule of mathematics for the continuation of the evening at least. When Chris and I return, the first results of the night, the actual math, as polls close in Vermont. We'll be able to project something about what's going on in the Great State.

Then about 30 minutes from now, the first results from the critical state, Ohio. Chris Matthews and I will join you after this.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

CHRIS MATTHEWS, MSNBC ANCHOR: It's 7:00 p.m. on the east coast. Polls are now closed in the state of Vermont. Barack Obama is the projected winner on the Democratic side. He has beaten Hillary Clinton in the first contest of the night.

On the Republican side, John McCain is the projected winner, winning all 17 delegates and moving him one step closer to clinching the Republican nomination.

Good evening, I'm Chris Matthews. I'm here with Keith Olbermann. One state is down but the big ones are yet to come. Keith.

KEITH OLBERMANN, MSNBC ANCHOR: Although we have a call in Vermont, we don't have a number. That's what is so critical. It's 64-40 or fight.

MATTHEWS: It will decide whether it's 10 to five in delegates or nine to six. It's coming down to delegates again.

OLBERMANN: Once again, Norah O'Donnell is going to be with us throughout the evening with the exit poll numbers and joins us now with a preview of this hour's selection. These continue to fascinate, Norah.

NORAH O'DONNELL, MSNBC CORRESPONDENT: Vermont, of course, an incredibly liberal state. Remember, Ben & Jerry, the ice cream makers, they endorsed Barack Obama, the state party chair, he even endorsed Barack Obama. Vermont, also the state home to Howard Dean, chairman of the DNC chairman.

One of the interesting things about Vermont is that we found that while the economy is very important in Vermont, the war in Iraq is almost as important. I'm going to have a little more for you on that in just a couple minutes.


OLBERMANN: Dr. Dean, by the way, saying he did not vote for president today, even, staying neutral to the last.

MATTHEWS: NBC News' chief White House correspondent David Gregory is with us. We have the first result of the evening. It will not be a sweep for Senator Clinton tonight. She can win three not four.

DAVID GREGORY, NBC NEWS CORRESPONDENT: Chris, now Barack Obama is 12 and 0. The last 12 contests, he's got a pretty good streak going. As you know, we'll watch Vermont for the numbers. One of the big questions is, does he gets more delegates out of Vermont than a victory for Hillary Clinton can net in Ohio. It becomes a numbers game as the night wears on.

MATTHEWS: I'm looking at NCAA ratings tonight. I noticed that UNC is number one with two losses. Are we going to cover it that way? If Hillary wins two tonight, does she break the streak or does it look like another 13 and two situation?

GREGORY: It will be played both ways. The Obama team is going to argue that this is about math, not momentum. Now, Clinton is going to be making the opposite argument. The two big wins for her in Texas and Ohio mean buyers remorse for Barack Obama. It changes the story line. It gets into what has she done over the last week to change the dynamic of the race.

MATTHEWS: How did we decide whether Barack Obama went from 20 behind in Texas and in Ohio to a close finish, if that's what it is, or that he faded?

GREGORY: Well, because we're going to have to point to what happened in the last week and does it matter. Was he distracted by Hillary Clinton? Did he get into a situation where he was thrown off his game to respond to her attacks. They threw the kitchen sink at the Obama campaign. Did that trip him up? Was he unable to close the deal? Where was he unable to close the deal, if she is able to win Ohio and Texas.

Big states, including New York, California, that's what Hillary Clinton has been able to do to keep herself in the game. That's what Barack Obama wants to try to turn around.

MATTHEWS: Let's look at the big issue she's raised in Ohio, which may well help her tonight. We don't know yet about the results at all, and we really don't. NAFTA, does that carry. Is that portable to Pennsylvania?

GREGORY: I think it could be among working class voters. Again, she's trying to put together a coalition that doesn't break. We're going to look closely tonight at the gender gap. We're going to look at the racial split of the voters. We're going to look at independent voters and where they went. We've seen in these contests that Barack Obama has been winning that he's cutting in among the women, women who are voting on the Democratic side and among that working class vote.

As you know, in Ohio, in Pennsylvania, the economy may be decisive. Free trade, the issues of globalization, play right into that. That, as somebody pointed out today, the Clintons are to the economy what Russia is to caviar. That's the bread and butter issue, what she wants it to be, that along with the experience question.

OLBERMANN: What scenario, David, do you see as tripping the wire on the release of endorsements? We heard about Bill Richardson and Obama. Maybe they are close to the deal there. Is there something that happens tonight that could make tomorrow, March 5th, national endorsement day? To use Chris's analogy of the NCAA, it will be like letter of intent day tomorrow for all the people who haven't declared one way or another in the Democratic party.


GREGORY: I think one of the things that we've seen - again, we're up to 12 of the last contests going to Barack Obama, yet Hillary Clinton has successfully, even though there's been a lot of stories about is she about to be out, should she bow out, they have kept her candidacy alive and argued its relevance. If she wins two tonight, she's able in a very passionate way to say there's something that's changing. There's a change in the dynamic. I should keep going.

I think if she loses one of the big ones, Texas or Ohio, I think it gets more difficult. I think you then see somebody like a Bill Richardson say, we've got to focus on the math here. If after this Barack Obama is still ahead in this pledged delegate lead, we have to move onto a general election.

OLBERMANN: David Gregory, chief White House correspondent, not in the White House but sitting in the room with us. We'll be back with you later, David. Thank you. Let's go back to Columbus and the Clinton campaign, where Andrea Mitchell is standing by. We begin with her. Andrea, one down to Vermont to Obama. What's the reaction there.

ANDREA MITCHELL, NBC NEWS CORRESPONDENT: They did not expect Vermont. That is the most anti-war state. That is Senator Bernie Sanders, liberals who have been against Hillary Clinton since she voted in favor of the war in 2002. They weren't counting on that. They still think they are competitive in Rhode Island and think they are going to win Ohio and have a shot of Texas. There's a lot of enthusiasm here tonight, Keith.

OLBERMANN: And the thoughts towards - do they have any more information on the states that we have yet to see? Obviously, most importantly of all, Ohio and Texas?

MITCHELL: Their field commanders are telling them things are good. The results so far, the turnout, the fact that labor, white men seem to have returned in Ohio. They think the NAFTA argument worked for her there. Her tougher fighting spirit, which she laid out in our debate last week. And they think they are competitive in Texas because of a big Hispanic vote.

There's been a generational split among Hispanics in what our reporting has told us. Younger Latinos have not been as enthusiastic about her as the elders. So it remains to be seen as to whether that vote is a Clinton vote or an Obama vote.

OLBERMANN: What would actually have to happen, Andrea, for Senator Clinton to say, no, this is enough and draw a line tomorrow. Obviously, we heard from President Clinton two weeks ago saying she needed Ohio and Texas or he didn't see how she could get the nomination. That statement has been Ron Zeiglered (ph) into the ether. It's no longer operative. What is there that is operative on this most important of decisions, most difficult decisions of any candidate?

MITCHELL: Bottom line, if she loses Texas and Ohio, there's no way she could proceed. The pressure would be too great from super delegates and her own internal clock would tell her time is up. That said, I think if she is a very strong finisher in Texas and wins in Ohio, the signals now are that she might stay in, despite what her husband said back ten days ago or maybe longer than that.

There are a number of people, Clinton supporters, who think she should get out if she does not win both. I think her husband might be one of them. I know that Ed Rendell, the governor of Pennsylvania, is one. Bill Richardson, the governor of New Mexico. Hillary Clinton might want to fight on if she thinks she's come close enough in Texas.

OLBERMANN: That's Andrea Mitchell at the Columbus Athanaum (ph), the Clinton headquarters for tonight. Thank you, Andrea. We'll be back to you later in the evening.

MATTHEWS: Let's go to the Obama headquarters in San Antonio with Lee Cowan. Let me ask you Lee about this reverse question here. Has Obama made a mistake of walking into a box canyon, wherein he can't win unless he wins everything?


LEE COWAN, NBC NEWS CORRESPONDENT: Certainly, I think the expectations are, as he came into this, that hew as going to continue this winning streak. If he doesn't do that, I don't think it necessarily puts a stop to the campaign, by any sense, but it does slow things down a little bit. It does - if Hillary Clinton was able to win Texas and Ohio, it does give her that ability to say that she did win all the big states, which is an argument that is going to be tough.

The counter-argument from the Obama campaign is well, she may have won a lot of big states, but we won a lot of big states as well, and we're still ahead in terms of the numbers of states won and in terms of the delegate count as well.

MATTHEWS: It's a long way. We've got Wyoming coming up Saturday, caucuses, where, of course, Obama has done well in smaller states. Then we also have coming up Mississippi, where he might do extremely well again. He could get back on his streak again after tonight. How does he - if he has a mixed result tonight, how does he bandage himself up and go back to the streak again.

COWAN: I think you're right. He's already planning to head to Wyoming this weekend, will certainly be in Mississippi next week. Then, of course, the big next state up is Pennsylvania. That could be like Iowa all over again, in a sense of it's going to be a long stretch of time. We're probably going to be criss-crossing the state, going to every nook and cranny there.

I think the Obama campaign has always said that the longer they are able to stay in a state, the longer they have to introduce him to the audiences, the better they do. I think the focus is really going to be on that day in that state, because, as you said, I think he may do pretty well in the next states coming up. He may get back on track a little bit. With Pennsylvania looming out there, still tempered a bit.

MATTHEWS: I want to talk to you later tonight about him in Pennsylvania. It's fascinating. Six media markets, seven weeks. Anyway, Lee Cowan with the Obama campaign. Let's go right now to Eugene Miller. He's an Ohio State representative who supports Hillary Clinton for president, despite facing pressure to switch to Obama's side. How do you feel the pressure tonight?

REP. EUGENE MILLER (D), OHIO STATE REPRESENTATIVE: I was feeling a lot of the pressure today. I was out at the polls. I'm running for re-election. I've been in the polls here in Cleveland since 5:30 this morning. A couple of persons, who - my opponent, all he was saying was vote for him because he's supporting Obama. A lot of persons who want to vote for me was questioning me about my support for Senator Clinton.

MATTHEWS: What's your answer?

MILLER: I just stood up up and said that Senator Clinton has the best plan for Ohio, and the best plan for my district, which is the second poorest in the state of Ohio.

MATTHEWS: How long can you hold out? Suppose your district, your constituents vote clearly the other way tonight. I don't know if they will. If they do vote overwhelmingly for Senator Obama, can you still stand the heat?

MILLER: I'm going to still stand the heat, because I'm in a lot of heat right now.

MATTHEWS: What do you hear from the Clinton people? Are they promising you, stay tight, we'll take care of you? What words of comfort do you get from your leader, the Clintons?


MILLER: The word of confidence I get from my leaders is my Congresswoman, Stephanie Tubbs Jones, that we hear working on the ground and throughout state and throughout the country to make sure this gets done. I have a lot of faith in our Congresswoman and her leadership and her commitment to Senator Clinton. I'm here working on the ground to make sure we win Ohio.

MATTHEWS: If she switches will you?

MILLER: I will have to make that decision.

MATTHEWS: Would you likely switch if she did.

MILLER: I would have to make the decision.

MATTHEWS: You know what I'm trying to find out here, whether we have the old system of politics I grew up with in a big city, whereby there are bosses and there are troops. Are you a troop?

MILLER: I'm a strong trooper, yes. I'm a strong trooper.

MATTHEWS: So, as goes Stephanie Tubbs Jones, so goes Mr. Miller.

MILLER: So goes Stephanie Tubbs Jones, so goes the campaign for Senator Clinton.

MATTHEWS: You out-thought me. Thank you very much Eugene Miller, who is standing tough for the Clintons.

OLBERMANN: Well done, sir. Let's check back with our panel. Joe Scarborough in the role of chieftain. Joe?

JOE SCARBOROUGH, MSNBC ANCHOR: Thank you so much. The question is, if Hillary Clinton does well tonight - we don't know yet - if she does well in Ohio and Texas, then do they see that as reward for rolling up their sleeves and getting tough on Obama?


RACHEL MADDOW, AIR AMERICA RADIO: You know, Joe, the thing I've been wondering this entire campaign about Obama is whether or not he can withstand Republican attacks. We're starting to find that out. She has been attacking him in many of the ways that Republican attack, attacking him as soft on national security.

She's gone after him in many of the same ways that Republicans will. So we're starting to see what the affect of that is going to be. It may answer more some questions about Obama than it does about Hillary.

SCARBOROUGH: Pat Buchanan, Barack Obama, if, in fact, he's gotten a free pass through this whole campaign, it's not bad for him to fight Hillary Clinton all the way to Denver, is it? For him to get his sea legs before he gets pummeled by the Republican attack machine.

PAT BUCHANAN, MSNBC POLITICAL ANALYST: I wouldn't agree with that. For her to beat him now, she's really going to have to start working on him. She's been doing that. The press has been doing that for the last ten days. I think Barack would like this thing over. I'll tell you this, if Hillary - it's hypothetical - should win Ohio and Texas, the headlines will be enormous.

First, she'll have a tremendous victory. She'll have momentum. Secondly, it will say all this stuff by Farrakhan and NAFTA, and these other things, it bit; it worked; it broke his momentum. That would be a terrible message if that comes out.

SCARBOROUGH: This is the first time that Barack Obama has withstood one attack after the other from the press and the Clintons. This morning, we played a clip over and over again where she says, yes, I have life experiences; John McCain has life experiences; Barack Obama gave a speech. One speech.

EUGENE ROBINSON, "THE WASHINGTON POST": As Rachel said, it was inevitable that he would face attacks. Your don't get to waltz to be president. I tend to agree that it is actually a good thing for him to experience this now, in part because he's showing he's got a pretty steep learning curving. He doesn't always do everything right at first, but tends to get better as time goes on.

So I think you've got to look beyond. You know, I'm booking our passage for Puerto Rico. I think we're going to be there June 6th, presenting the panel of course.

SCARBOROUGH: Of course. The panel has to go to Puerto Rico. All right, very good. Thank you so much. Back to Chris and Keith.

OLBERMANN: All right. Anti up and you can all go to Puerto Rico, and no problem. If you're looking for us to take you there, forget it. Thank you Joe. Let's get the latest numbers from more exit polling. Obama has won Vermont, at least according to our NBC News projection.

Let's see what the exit numbers say about that and how it happened from Norah O'Donnell. Norah.

O'DONNELL: That is Vermont right there, you can see. As we pan out here to the entire United States, all the blue states are the states that Barack Obama has won tonight. As we talk about Vermont, it is one of the most liberal states in the country, also one of the most anti-war states. Let's look at the exit polls.


In Vermont, while the economy was the number one issue, look at the war in Iraq, almost just as important. In fact, ranks higher than we've seen in any other primary state, with 38 percent saying it is their top concern. Why might that be? According to the Department of Defense, Vermont has suffered the highest per capita rate of casualties in Iraq.

For those voters who considered Iraq the most important issue, take a look at this, Obama took those voters three to one. You see him with 74 percent of the vote to Clinton's just 24 percent of the vote. Another area where Barack Obama scored well in Vermont, they say he's the best to fill the position of commander in chief. That is a position that Hillary Clinton has made key to her campaign. Here in Vermont, Barack Obama took the majority, 51 percent to Clinton's 42 percent.

Barack Obama was seen as the candidate who was most inspirational, the one who truly inspired voters on the campaign trail. Look at that, 85 percent. A big win for Barack Obama here in Vermont is very important. The campaign believes, they say, that they can net more delegates out of Vermont tonight than even if Hillary Clinton wins both Ohio and Texas. And the reason for that is simple, if he has a significant margin of victory there in Vermont.

OLBERMANN: Right, Norah. That Chuck Todd number is 64 percent; 63 percent means he gets like a nine-six split on those 15 delegates; 64 percent means Obama gets ten-five. We come back with more exit polling from Norah O'Donnell later on. Thank you, Norah.

Tim Russert, of course, NBC Washington bureau chief, moderator of "Meet the Press." Vermont not unexpected. The margin, if it is 64 percent or more, also probably would not be unexpected. We don't have that. We simply have a projected victory. we don't have any idea, no way to characterize it.

Is there anything predictive now out of this result coming in the way it has?

TIM RUSSERT, "MEET THE PRESS": Keith, you're absolutely right. The number of delegates is so critical. Vermont could really be a treasure trove compared to the closeness we're seeing tonight in other states. A coalition that Obama put together in Vermont truly is extraordinary. It's a white state. Two-thirds of the voters were over the age of 45. He carried white women. All the things we had seen him doing in caucus states and on Potomac Tuesday.

If that model could ever be applied to Ohio and Texas, they wouldn't be close. We don't expect that. It's the white ethnic voter in Ohio we have to watch. Particularly, once again, white ethnic women in their 60s making less than 50,000 dollars. Once we unlock that puzzle, how many of them voted and how big was the margin for Hillary Clinton, we'll know a whole lot more.

Clearly, the magnitude of the victory in Vermont is important in this delegate by delegate count, because if the races are close in proportional allocation, you don't win any more delegates than the other candidate.

OLBERMANN: Not to wish ill of what happens in Iraq, but simply to describe it perhaps as an issue that could at any time resurge in terms of its importance even within the confines of the Democratic nominating process, let alone the general election; that number in Vermont that the economy is 39 percent, the choice of - most important issue of 39 percent of the voters there and Iraq is 38 percent. You get these kind of results that appear to be happening for Senator Obama there. Is there predictive quality to that in terms of what might happen if this thing, in fact, goes through Pennsylvania beyond, into the convention itself? Is that of some value?

RUSSERT: Yes. If the issue is the war, Senator Obama has the decided advantage in a Democratic primary, because he came out against the war and Senator Clinton voted for it. What we're seeing in the exit polls in Texas is the war is a big issue there, not as big as the economy, but it's very considerable. States where the populists have paid a price with their sons and daughters, it remains and festers as an issue.

If something were to change on the ground in Iraq and it began to explode, literally, in politics in America, I think it would be to Senator Obama's advantage. Absolutely.


OLBERMANN: The NAFTA numbers that came out in some of the earlier exit polling, obviously everybody expected that. Basically, it's the NAFTA stinks exit poll, which suggests that 81 percent of Ohio thinks NAFTA stinks, at least that it takes jobs away rather than adding to them. The number out of Texas seems surprisingly lopsided against the way it was expected, and perhaps certainly against the way perhaps Senator Obama expected it 59-24 in Texas thinking NAFTA takes jobs away.

Is that maybe the most surprising we've seen out of the exit polls. What does it mean for Senator Obama and Clinton out of Texas.

RUSSERT: It demonstrates what a profound change there has been with hard core Democrats on the issue of trade. It was always considered something you could appeal to with a populist message in selected areas in the country. If, in fact, there's that much negative attitude towards trade, I think you'll see Democratic candidates be very, very careful about what they say about trade and NAFTA, not only in Ohio, but in every state caucus coming up as this thing plays out, particularly in a state like Pennsylvania, Keith.

It is very, very striking how trade really has become a litmus test issue for the Democratic voter.

OLBERMANN: Whatever you decide to say, candidates, do not talk about it with anybody from Canada. Tim Russert, thanks. We'll be back with you after the polls close in Ohio. We're counting down to that half hour, as the case may be, nine minutes hence or so, when polls will close in Ohio. When we return, Chuck Todd by the numbers. There he is. He's counting numbers as we speak, the delegate count.

MSNBC's Decision 2008 coverage continuing right after this.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

OLBERMANN: We're moments away from poll closing time in Ohio at 7:30 Eastern time, five minutes and 20 seconds from right now. We'll have a characterization of some sort of what's going on in the Republican and Democratic primaries there. In the interim, let's go to the peanut gallery, NBC News political director Chuck Todd, by the numbers. Is that it?

CHUCK TODD, NBC NEWS POLITICAL DIRECTOR: I guess that's what we'll call it, by the numbers. We're going to take a look at how to follow the Ohio returns tonight. I don't think we've given anything away that we think the Democratic side is going to be very close.

Let's do an estimation. Let's say she wins by a margin of 51-49; her delegate haul, at best, will either be plus five or, ready for this, minus one. Here is how she could be minus one; five Congressional districts to watch, the third, the 18th, the 17th, 10 and 11. These are districts that either have odd numbers or places where Obama could run up the score. In 10 or 11, this is Kucinich district and Stephanie Tubbs Jones.

If he nets four delegates, if he nets in the Stephanie Tubbs Jones a five-two split, rather than a four-three, if he goes into Kucinich and nets a four-two, if he goes into the old Bob Ney district, which is now Zach Space, the Democrat represents that, if he wins that three-two, instead of losing it three-two, this ex-urban Cincinnati district, the third, if he wins that one three-two, that's how he could actually get more delegates and lose tonight.

At best, if she gets the better parts of those things, holds Obama's number in the Kucinich, and the Cleveland area, in the Kucinich and the Tubbs Jones district to what she hopes to do, she could net delegates. Again, with plus five or minus one, what's that plus five. Five delegates is what Obama could get out of Vermont. Five delegates is what Clinton could get out of Ohio tonight.


Watch those five districts, guys, the 3rd, the 17th, the 18th, and those two Cleveland districts, the 10th and the 11th. That's how we'll know who won Ohio.

OLBERMANN: Good grief. Can you imagine that? Only sympathy to a winner of Ohio who would have to spin explaining why she didn't get more delegates or he didn't get more delegates, as the case may be. Chuck Todd by the numbers at the delegate map. Thank you, Chuck.

I've said it before and I'll say it again, if I were running for president, god forbid that would ever happen, we would move to Brazil. If I did, Chuck Todd would be the first person I would hire. Polls close in Ohio in three and a half minutes. Our first characterization of that race comes up.

MSNBC's Decision 2008 coverage continuing after this.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

OLBERMANN: At 7:30 in the East, the polls having closed in Ohio, NBC News now projects that the Ohio Democratic Primary is too close to call at this hour. Too close to call in Ohio with the polls closed after what is reported to be very heavy voting on the Democratic side. The Republican Primary in Ohio, nowhere near as dramatic. John McCain, the projected winner within 29 seconds of poll closure. And we can project that he will receive at least 58 delegates from Ohio.

So Senator McCain's march probably to conclude tonight towards the official declaration, that official number of 1,191 to nominate, 1,192 for safety's sake, to avoid a tie, will probably be crossed at some point later this evening the way this is going for John McCain. Two for McCain.

Let's go to Vermont again where at 7:00 the polls closed. And we projected at that point that Senator Barack Obama was the projected winner, not a surprise to either camp there. There is no real vote total to count yet as the total number of votes already in the books remains under 1,000. So with voting still at triple digits, it's not yet time to even report a hard number.

Among the Republicans, the projected winner again, Senator McCain over Huckabee. We don't have a characterization on the margin there. And of course, to preview what is ahead, Texas closes in an hour-and-a-half, a little less than that, 9:00 Eastern, 8:00 Central. The two big numbers of the night: Ohio too close to call, and of course, Texas, well, they haven't even closed the polls yet.

So what are we seeing so far, Chris?

MATTHEWS: Well, you have to wonder if you are a Democrat watching tonight and you want to win the general election if any of this tonight is good news. You've got to wonder whether it's good to put off the party agreement that Barack Obama is the candidate several weeks or months, perhaps after Pennsylvania, perhaps after Puerto Rico. Is that healthy?

Is it healthy to have a reversal in fortune in this campaign at this point which may stop short a victory for Senator Clinton but deliver a worse than glancing blow at Barack Obama? Is it useful for the party to face seven weeks in Pennsylvania, six media markets, $30 million spent in both directions blasting each other out of the saddle in a state you absolutely positively have to carry.


So neither one of these candidates, Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton, are perfectly customized for Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania prefers a beefier sort than either of these people, a more rustic, tougher sort than either of them. And yet both of them will be showing off each other's weaknesses for seven straight weeks, which is great news for the people in that state like Tom Ridge and David Gerard (ph) DeCarle (ph) and all of the other big Republicans who are hoping that John McCain can poach that state.

It's not good news to spend seven weeks in Pennsylvania blasting each other if you're Democrats.

OLBERMANN: And that begs another question as to when - and we have talked about this before, when senior Democrats and what senior Democrats might step in, how that would be possible, who is left to do it, who is there to convince somebody who has devoted 10 years of their life and millions of dollars raised to competing for a candidacy to say, no, no, I should go out for the sake of the party as common sense as it might even seem under certain circumstances?

MATTHEWS: Well, you and I who are on the air all the time know that the box this campaign came in is marked change. This country is in a rut, on the war in Iraq, impending wars elsewhere in the Middle East, the economy, everything, we're in a rut. We can't fix anything, whether it's Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security, we can't fix our health care system. Nothing is done since '65 when we did the civil rights bill.

People want something done. Will that something get done if we have an election that bogs down in Pennsylvania with seven weeks of Democrats killing each other? That's a question that everybody ought to ask, not just Hillary Clinton or Bill Clinton.

OLBERMANN: One candidate who is appealing to however hopeful or naive that audience might be, that actually thinks there is some small measure of change that might be accomplished, and the other one saying, no, no, don't believe in that change, it's just a good speech, that for seven weeks may be...

MATTHEWS: Yes. "Don't get your hopes up" is not a good campaign slogan for Democrats.

OLBERMANN: And it could be fatal to both people in the equation.

MATTHEWS: OK. Number two, they seem to be focusing a lot on who could knock the other one's head off right now. If Hillary Clinton has a good night tonight and she may have a three-for-four victory tonight, we don't know yet, nobody knows, is that good if it's purchased at the price of questioning the guy's religion?

Is it good for the country if it's purchased at a trade war with Canada? Do we really want protectionism all the way where we really fight to the wall as to who is the most protectionist, who is the most hating of NAFTA? Is that healthy for the country?

So I wonder, we have got six media markets in Pennsylvania, it will cost a fortune, we will burn lots of money. Let me go to Howard Fineman...

OLBERMANN: And what is the root and how many divots are there in that road?


MATTHEWS: And is there a yellow brick road for Senator Clinton, no matter happens tonight, that will take her to win this nomination without a fiery Denver come next August.

Howard Fineman, how is that for a hot potato to throw to you right now?

HOWARD FINEMAN, MSNBC POLITICAL ANALYST: Well, as a Pennsylvanian, I like the idea of the yellow brick road going through Pennsylvania. I'm not sure it's going to happen. I wanted to tell you guys over here in the "Listening Post" about Bill Richardson. There has been a lot of talk about him tonight.

So I got on the phone with Mike Stratton, who is probably his closest friend in the world. He talked to Bill Richardson just a few minutes, and here is what Bill Richardson said according to his good friend.

Bill Richardson has not endorsed anybody either publicly or privately. He hasn't come to a decision about endorsing anybody. That's number one. But Bill Richardson is sitting at home watching these results just like anybody else. And here is his standard. If Barack Obama wins both Texas and Ohio, I think Richardson will say that the party basically has spoken.

He, Richardson may still hang back in terms of endorsing but it will be over as far as Richardson is concerned if Obama wins both Texas and Ohio. If, on the other hand, Hillary wins both Texas and Ohio, Richardson's view is that the thing is wide open, and wide open again in a way that it hasn't been since the very beginning.

Now this being real life, the possibility of a split decision is obvious. If it's a split decision, I think it's Richardson's view that the party will begin to try to argue to Hillary, despite her stubbornness and her own views, that it's time to begin shutting it down, otherwise, as you say, Chris, it's a death of a thousand cuts in Pennsylvania and everywhere else.

So that's where Richardson is now. And I think Richardson is emblematic of the party leaders all over the country and how they are going to be viewing this tonight, because they are the ones now paradoxically who become very important as the average folks vote around the country.

MATTHEWS: It seems to me that Senator Clinton has been very effective in the last couple of days, at least by the lights of the media trying to cover this before the voting gets counted tonight, in bringing into question Barack Obama's trustworthiness in regard to his economic adviser's talk sotto voce with the Canadian consular official, and whether that was a wink that we're really not serious about looking at NAFTA again.

This whole question of his religious faith. Everyone knows he's a Christian. He knows it, we know it, yet Hillary Clinton took the longest time to answer Steve Kroft's question the other night. I don't know whether to read too much into it, but everybody has, that she played a bit of a game here, just as she did with John Kerry to get him out of the race a couple of months by taking that joke of his about, if you're stupid you take us to Iraq, as some kind of statement that if you flunk out at school you get drafted, the worst possible interpretation of that joke to kill John Kerry.

Is she now - on a root now to destroy the credibility of Barack Obama if that's the only way she can win this nomination?

FINEMAN: Two things, Chris. First of all, if you look at that big picture, Hillary is running an almost entirely negative campaign right now. We tend to forget that. That's what the "kitchen sink" is all about. It's not about her, it's about him. And she's hoping that the crossfire of her and her campaign and the McCain Republican campaign will weaken Obama dramatically.


The second thing is, Hillary Clinton doesn't do anything by accident. I watched that CBS tape of Steve Kroft's interview very, very carefully. And Hillary was brilliantly Machiavellian in sounding indignant while at the same time raising doubts about Obama. She said, why, I have no reason to think that he's anything other than a Christian.

I mean, that was - I'm a reporter and an analyst, not an editorial writer, but that was positively Nixonian in its pauses and innuendos. Look at it and look at it carefully, there was nothing accidental about it.

MATTHEWS: OK. Thank you, Howard Fineman.

OLBERMANN: Who just provided the phrase "brilliantly Machiavellian," that the - perhaps the Obama campaign can run with to discuss and describe Senator Clinton. Well, we'll see. We are joined now by the anchor emeritus of "NBC NIGHTLY NEWS," Tom Brokaw of NBC News joins us.

Always a pleasure, sir.

TOM BROKAW, FORMER NBC ANCHOR: My pleasure, Keith. I have been listening to Chris here for the last few moments. I know that he has a great personal fondness for Pennsylvania. But I'm just curious about why he allowed them to even put it on the calendar if it's not worth going all the way to Pennsylvania.

I mean, this is the calendar that we're dealing with, after all. And I have been looking at the exit poll in Ohio and in Texas. It's filled with some fascinating material, but a lot of contradictions as well. In Ohio, for example, the economy, three to one over the other issues, Chris, not the religion of Barack Obama. And Hillary Clinton, according to the people that we talked to, coming out of the polls, favored 52 to 46.

The war, Obama 55 to 44 percent. Only 18 percent of the people in Ohio said that that was the most important issue for them. Nineteen percent said health care, 52 percent of those people were for Hillary Clinton, 46 percent for Barack Obama. Figures were very similar in Texas. On two of the three, they were split on the economy 50-50.

Obama favored on the war, obviously, and Hillary Clinton on health care. So despite what we're saying, I think the voters are paying much more attention to those three primary issues that have been on the table here from the beginning, the economy, the war in Iraq, and health care.

And this comes during a week when gasoline hit $4 a barrel. Oil went to - pardon me, $4 a gallon, when oil went over $100 a barrel once again, when Barack - when Bernanke, who is the chairman of the Federal Reserve, said we now have to have banks think about making accommodations on the principal on home loans, we are in a very critical situation economically here. And that's what's on the minds of a lot of these voters.

And by the way, Chris, my old friend, it was John Edwards, not John Kerry, I think, that she went after earlier when you were talking about...

MATTHEWS: No, it was John Kerry and his joke that if you don't study in school you end up in Iraq.


BROKAW: Oh, that's right, you're right.

MATTHEWS: And that was right as...

BROKAW: I take that back, you're right, it was John Kerry.

MATTHEWS: Sort of a Vietnam-era joke when in fact she could have kindly updated it to the day that we had a president who took us into Iraq, not a G.I.

BROKAW: Well, my point is that we have not - I mean, the voters are - all of their nerve endings are exposed. And they are looking at these candidates very carefully and they are taking their measure.

Now the other interesting piece of all this is, in both Texas and Ohio, over 90 percent of the people say that they think that she has the most experience and therefore may be the most qualified. But by a three-to-one margin they believe that Barack Obama can bring about the necessary change that this country needs.

So those are some of the contradictions and the complexities that we're dealing with here tonight qualitatively as we await the quantitative judgment of those two states.

OLBERMANN: All right. Tom, and by the way, just to answer your question, the reason Chris doesn't want to go to - have everybody go through Pennsylvania for seven weeks is that he knows how many people in the political field there are rather reminiscent of himself. So he is trying to spare...

MATTHEWS: Ha!

(LAUGHTER)

OLBERMANN: Spare the candidates all of that.

MATTHEWS: Actually, I'm like the Br'er Rabbit, don't throw me in that briar patch. I can't wait for seven weeks of covering that campaign. Anyway, the prompter is not moving so my lips are not moving. But when Keith and I return, Tim Russert will be here. Plus, how the Democratic race is affecting things on the Republican side. MSNBC's DECISION 2008 coverage continues after this.


(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

OLBERMANN: One News note about Ohio, where we have declared it too close to call in large part because the secretary of state in the state has asked a judge to hold the polls open in Sandusky County until 9:00 p.m. Eastern, that is presumably weather-related, Sandusky, that is Fremont, Ohio.

As we wait for all of that, the rest of the polls having closed at 7:30, apparently, let's go back to Norah O'Donnell, some more new numbers from exit polling.

And this is the treasure load of information tonight - Norah.

NORAH O'DONNELL, MSNBC CHIEF WASHINGTON CORRESPONDENT: And good evening to you, Chris and Keith. That's right, as you noted, the polls have just closed in Ohio. And we are characterizing the Democratic race as too close to call. Let's take a look at some of issues that figured prominently for voters in this contest as well as in other big voting state, that is Texas.

We asked voters about the importance of the recent debates. And for Democrats in these two states, it made a difference. Seventy-two percent of those in Ohio say it was important in their decision, 64 percent of the Democrats voting in Texas agree.

Remember, these recent debates had featured sharp attacks with the gloves coming off. It's also where the candidates said they would renegotiate the NAFTA trade agreement, an issue of concern to both Ohio and Texas where the majority of voters say it has cost jobs.

Then we asked about which candidate has a clear plan to deal with the country's problems. And here Hillary Clinton has the edge over Barack Obama. In both states, in Ohio, 67 percent of the Democratic voters chose Clinton, 57 percent Obama. It was nearly the same in Texas, 66 percent for Clinton, and 52 percent for Obama. Really interesting.

And then, about those attacks and those ads, did they create a feeling that the candidates were being unfair? Well, take a look at the numbers for Hillary Clinton. In both Ohio and Texas, Hillary Clinton was seen as the candidate who was unfair by a majority of the voters in both states with 52 percent of the vote. Now also Barack Obama was also seen as unfair but obviously by a much lower percentage of the voters, 33 percent in Ohio there and 36 percent in Texas.

Now, in Ohio, which we said was just too close to call, Clinton in general is winning among women. She's winning the white vote by a large margin. And she's also winning among those who make less than $50,000 a year. For Barack Obama, he is winning over half of the men and the under 30 vote by a wide margin there.

OLBERMANN: Norah O'Donnell with the exit polls, which would seem to suggest that Hillary Clinton got herself a lot in terms of having a good plan, and then took some of it away from herself by attacking unfairly, at least according to the exit polls in both Ohio and Texas. Thank you, Norah.

O'DONNELL: You're welcome.


OLBERMANN: Back to Tim Russert and some of the other statistics that are beginning to break out of Ohio. More of the demographics, rather, than the other groupings.

Tim, what have you got?

RUSSERT: You know, Keith, it is interesting going through that exit poll from Ohio. And what we're seeing is each candidate playing dramatically to their own strength. For example, more than 30 percent of the voters in the Democratic primary today were independents or Republicans. That plays to Obama's strength.

The white ethnic Democrats, clearly Hillary Clinton's strength. And with white women over 60, she is polling very, very strongly. Voters over 65 she's winning close to 70 percent. So what we're seeing is a realignment back prior to Potomac Tuesday of the coalitions.

White women making under $50,000, over the age of 50, aligning themselves with Hillary Clinton. Young voters, African-American voters by margins of nine-to-one. More affluent voters aligning themselves with Barack Obama. That's why the polls have closed and the race is too close to call because neither has been able to draw from one another's coalition thus far in Ohio.

MATTHEWS: Tim, if - I don't know if we have any good history on this, you might have it. If a voter begins to vote against a candidate who is going to win the nomination in the primary process, in other words, Barack Obama, let's assume he has the numbers, Hillary Clinton gets votes against him in states like Ohio, does that argue that that same voter would more likely vote against Barack Obama in the general?

RUSSERT: It depends how divisive the conventions are. If you look at '72, and you look at - '68, '72, and '80. Those conventions fell apart and the Democrats lost all three races. What these candidates have to be fearful is as follows: If Obama is the candidate in November, will white women over the age of 50, making under $50,000, stay with him or the Democrat or because they had voted for Hillary Clinton opt for John McCain?

Will African-Americans be offended because Obama is not the nominee and simply stay home? It's a group that the Democrats desperately need because they vote nine-to-one for the Democrats.

And what about all of these young people in Ohio, Texas, wherever, all voting overwhelmingly for Obama, do they stay home? So there's a real risk, Chris, as to how long this race goes on and how tense it is and how negative it is. And we're seeing that reflected in these exit polls today.

MATTHEWS: OK. Thank you very much, Tim Russert. As we watch the returns come in from Ohio, we're joined by someone who knows that state quite well, that's former Ohio Secretary of State Ken Blackwell, a Republican, and proud to be.

Sir, let me ask you about your party. Are you in a good mood tonight watching the Democrats go at each other?

KEN BLACKWELL (R), FORMER OHIO SECRETARY OF STATE: Oh, I think it's democracy at its best. It's a vigorous contest on the Democratic side of the aisle. And John McCain has locked it down on the Republican side. So we're going to watch democracy at work.


MATTHEWS: Well, suppose the issue becomes who is the most protectionist Democrat and questions are raised about Barack Obama's trust, even his religious background, his religious faith, and yet he does end up winning on the numbers, doesn't that put you in a position of fighting someone who has been badly hurt by a Democrat?

BLACKWELL: Well, I think what it does is, against what appears to be big issues on the minds of voters of America, you know, winning the war, actually getting our economy growing again, producing jobs, making those tax cuts permanent, I think on those big issues, securing the borders, restoring the rule of law, those are the issues that John McCain will have to run against Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton on.

And I think in both cases you have Democrats that have big government visions, and it's going to be fairly easy for McCain to run against them if he solidifies the space and crystallizes his message.

MATTHEWS: You know, you look at all of the polls done by National Journal of Republican insiders, and overwhelmingly I think the last number I saw was 85 percent of insiders want Hillary to be the other party's nominee because they believe that if she's the nominee of the Democratic Party, the Republicans pick up all kinds of seats in the Congress. They win big in the congressional elections as well as perhaps in the general election for president. Is that your view?

BLACKWELL: Well, my view is this, Chris, that we got off track. We started to campaign like Ronald Reagan and then at times govern like Jimmy Carter. And as a consequence, people really question whether or not we were true to our message.

I think John McCain and Republicans in Congress are going to have to basically say, we believe that we can bring to the voting public an agenda that will put us back on an economic growth path, help us win the war, restore the integrity of our borders and the rule of law and redeem our culture.

I mean, this is going to be a very - when you really look at it, you know, it's Tweedledee or Tweedledum when it comes to Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton.

MATTHEWS: OK. I just don't think Jack Abramoff worked for the Carter administration, Ken, did he?

(LAUGHTER)

MATTHEWS: Anyway, thank you, Ken Blackwell.

BLACKWELL: Well, we have some stories we can trade about corruption on the Democratic side.

MATTHEWS: Well, I don't think corruption is an equal opportunity employer. Anyway, thank you. Let's check back in with...


BLACKWELL: We'll talk about this later on.

MATTHEWS:... Joe Scarborough and the panel.

(LAUGHTER)

JOE SCARBOROUGH, HOST, "MORNING JOE": All right. Thank you so much, Chris. You know, boy. It was sort of like that Texas senator for a second there. Let's talk about what Tim Russert said. There appears to be a realignment. As Tim said, a lot of Hillary Clinton supporters have come back together and it's starting to look, if you look at the exit polls, like the pre-Potomac Primary constituency that Hillary had.

EUGENE ROBINSON, THE WASHINGTON POST: So there would be a re-realignment or - you know, back to where we started.

SCARBOROUGH: Back to where...

ROBINSON: Back to the future.

SCARBOROUGH: Basically what it means is that Hillary Clinton has been pounded over the past 12, 13 contests and it appears like her coalition is coming back together.

ROBINSON: Well, what it would portend would be that we would be at this for a while, because those are two roughly equal blocks, as Tim pointed out, as we saw in some of the early primaries. And so if we're going to have, you know, essentially white women with Hillary, African-Americans with Obama, and not a coming together of the party around one candidate, then, you know, onto Wyoming and the next primary.

(CROSSTALK)

PAT BUCHANAN, MSNBC POLITICAL ANALYST: Joe, it's a lot more serious than this. If Hillary is pulling the white women and the working class folks in eastern Ohio, ethnic, Catholic, heavily and they are resisting Obama, those people are available to John McCain, on one condition. We heard - what did we hear, eight-to-one or something, they despise NAFTA. He has got to - McCain has got to get off this NAFTA free trade Wall Street Journal economics.

SCARBOROUGH: It's the Reagan conservatives. And that's not going to happen. But it appears like...


BUCHANAN: These are Reagan Democrats.

SCARBOROUGH: It looks like these Reagan Democrats are switching allegiance. They are voting for Hillary Clinton right now and staying away from Barack Obama.

RACHEL MADDOW, MSNBC POLITICAL ANALYST: But it only matters if it results in her winning one of these states. That is going to be a hard-fought race. If it turns out that white ethnic voters, as you're talking about, end up leaving Barack Obama, heading over towards Hillary Clinton, but they can't put her over the top, if she loses four straight states tonight, it doesn't matter, it doesn't matter.

SCARBOROUGH: Does this mean that...

(CROSSTALK)

BUCHANAN: They are resisting Obama.

SCARBOROUGH: They are resisting Obama. The guy has had...

(CROSSTALK)

MADDOW: But if he still wins, he wins.

SCARBOROUGH: If he wins, right. But at the same time he has outspent Hillary Clinton three-to-one or four-to-one. If she wins the two big states, that's a rejection, right? They are pushing back.

ROBINSON: Well, it's certainly a reason for her to go on. Look, they didn't resist him in Wisconsin and they didn't resist him in Maryland. And there are other places where you have white ethnic voters who did go with Obama. So let's see what happens tonight. Let's see what happens.

SCARBOROUGH: Oh, good lord. You're sounding like Tom Brokaw now. Let's let the voters speak and all of that stuff. Talk about old-fashioned. Let's go back to Chris and Keith now.


OLBERMANN: All right, Joe, close. Chris and I will return in a moment, a little bit more out of Ohio. Senator Obama's campaign has requested a two-hour extension Cuyahoga and Franklin, and the extension in Sandusky, which has been granted, was because they ran out of ballots, about 400 short for the Democrats.

In an hour, polls close in Texas, in Rhode Island. MSNBC's DECISION 2008 coverage returns right after this.

KEITH OLBERMANN, MSNBC ANCHOR: Voter night in America. We've already run out of Super Tuesday terms. That's Vermont, Ohio, Texas and Rhode Island. Only one of them decided yet. Let's look at the numbers so far in Ohio. It's still too close to call. Not only that, but with less than 3,500 votes counted, at least one county is still open, Sandusky County, proud home of President Rutherford B. Hayes, where they had flooding and they were short of votes. They have extended voting until 9:00 there.

So some of this Ohio is coming in and much of the exit poll information is coming in before all of the polls have closed. There have also been requests to extend two other counties from the Obama campaign, claiming there was bad weather and, again, a shortage of votes.

In Vermont, a projected winner for Barack Obama over Senator Clinton in the Democratic primary there. We don't have a margin there yet. The number means everything in this one. If it's about two thirds for Obama, he would gain ten of 15 delegates there.

In Ohio, among the Republicans, John McCain the projected winner, and guaranteed to get nearly 60 delegates out of this. The march towards the delegate count he needs to officially lock down the Republican nomination, which he is the Republican presumptive nominee, continuing to march ahead through Vermont, where he is the projected winner as well.

Let's look at that count versus his remaining challenger, Mike Huckabee. The needed to nominate number 1,191 or 1,192 if you want to avoid the tie, may occur tonight with Texas and Rhode Island yet to report. We're already giving Vermont and Ohio to Senator McCain.

Coming up at 9:00, closings in Texas and Rhode Island. Critical in both senses of the word, Texas and Ohio making all the difference tonight. And the numbers would seem to suggest that maybe the term we used, Chris Matthews, before the start of the hour was Tim Russert's term, realignment or de-alignment. In other words, in Ohio, we seem to be seeing from the exit polls a roll back to some degree of some of the things that Obama was able to accomplish in Maryland and Virginia and D.C.

CHRIS MATTHEWS, MSNBC ANCHOR: Yes, we're going back to the kind of state we voted on - that voted on Super Tuesday, states like New Jersey and New York, broad states with lots of ethnicity, lots of older people. Ohio is very much a leading indicator of what we'll be facing in Pennsylvania, for example, if it goes that far. These are older states, people vote traditional and they vote fear. This economic issue, I think, may be driving harder than either of the candidates' campaigns.

You pick up the newspapers every day, you read about your friends losing their jobs, you hear about it at the supermarket and elsewhere. People are losing their jobs. That is driving people away from taking risks with Obama, the new guy on the block, and drives people away from generosity. People in this country are more open-minded about change and different kinds of people leading them when times are good than when times are bad.

OLBERMANN: Yet, in Ohio the exit poll numbers were about three to one favoring change over experience.

MATTHEWS: They want change without risk.


OLBERMANN: Who doesn't?

MATTHEWS: I think that would be a great stock to buy. I think it would be a great business decision. But risk comes with change. I do think that Senator Clinton looks like she has found a way - we'll find out by midnight perhaps - found a way to run as the more cautious candidate. Let Barack be the change guy, the new kid on the block. Be the older kid on the block, the more cautious kid, the one who's been there. The experience label may begin to work for somebody as times get trickier. It just could be that the cosmos is shifting faster than the success of either of these campaigns.

OLBERMANN: Of course, that victory might be pyrric in the sense of resting and maintaining a Democratic fight, while the Republicans gather steam for September - November. In the interim, we've been getting such wonderful information on the exit polls with Norah O'Donnell, who is here again to wet the appetite for what's going to come up throughout the hour.

NORAH, O'DONNELL, MSNBC CORRESPONDENT: One of the things I wanted to mention about the economy, it is the most important issue in Ohio, but six out of ten say it's the most important. That's a higher number than in any other of the 25 other Democratic contests that we've had thus far. So yes, Chris is right. The economy is a huge concern.

And yes, Hillary Clinton is winning back her base in Ohio. She is winning women. She is winning two thirds of white women. She is winning older voters. And she is also winning six out of ten white men. That is a group that has been going for Barack Obama. That's significant.

OLBERMANN: Fascinating to see the elongated version of those numbers and their parallels in Texas when the polls close at the top of the hour. Thank you, Norah. We'll be back to you later on in this hour.

Right now, NBC News chief White House correspondent David Gregory is here with us. And David, talk about champing at the bit on the part of the McCain camp. They can become official tonight, no longer the presumptive nominee. What are you hearing?

DAVID GREGORY, NBC NEWS CHIEF WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: It's important. They expect - absolutely expect to go over the top tonight, declare victory. I have talked to McCain advisers who say tomorrow they expect the party to come out, declare McCain the presumptive nominee. Then what happens then is very interesting. McCain then officially starts positioning himself for the general election.

He's got two targets now, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. But he takes advantage of all of that in-fighting going on. I think about this week and him saying, in referencing the Hillary Clinton ad about the 3:00 a.m. phone calls, saying no, I'm the one who is most qualified to get that 3:00 a.m. phone call. So he can insert himself into that debate, while they are still fighting among themselves.

Also, look for President Bush to step up his roll once he's the presumptive nominee, and they really, guns blazing, going out to the Democrats then.

OLBERMANN: What is the McCain campaign's attitude toward President Bush, as the nomination becomes presumably officially theirs tonight?

GREGORY: I think they try to use him strategically. There are ups and downs, pluses and minuses, to using President Bush. But at a time when he is trying to rally the base, rally conservatives, the president is still very important to McCain at this stage.


OLBERMANN: What are they - obviously it is a mantra now being said among Republicans and conservatives that the longer the Democratic race goes on, the better for the Republicans. Exactly the reverse of where we were a month ago, when Democrats operatives were saying, vote Romney, keep this thing going on against McCain. Is it simply a question of watching the two Democrats beat themselves up in a seven-week campaign in Pennsylvania, or is it, you know what, we can pick up a lot of these bludgeons that are used and use them ourselves on the Democratic nominee?

GREGORY: I think that's the important point. I think you look for John McCain to quote Hillary Clinton in an attack against Barack Obama and vice versa. If there is no coalescing on the Democratic side, and I think one of the storylines tonight and of this past week, is that both candidates are getting a second look. Now, are Democrats looking at Hillary Clinton again, anew, or do they say, we know Hillary Clinton. We want to take a closer look at Barack Obama and we've got some doubts all of a sudden.

Maybe it's about free trade. Maybe it's about the war in Iraq, both important issues tonight. John McCain tries to seize on all of that while the Democrats are not completely united, and really focus not only his general election campaign building fund raising, but message focus as well. And one of the things I'm hearing from some Democrats tonight is they say, if there is some rethinking going on about Barack Obama, it's because the general election has, in effect, started. McCain's already been attacking Obama. Maybe it gives Democrats some pause, especially on this experience question, national security question.

OLBERMANN: Which Hillary Clinton herself raised perhaps to her own detriment over the weekend. David Gregory, thanks. We'll check with you later on.

With a little more information on Ohio, the judge has granted the extension in Sandusky. They are going to be voting in Sandusky County until at least 9:00. The Obama campaign asked for extensions because of shortages of ballots in two other counties, in Cuyahoga (ph), principally. That's the Cleveland area. That's vital in terms of getting a vote count. So what we're working off of right now is exit polling information.

But obviously the two campaigns have that and know its importance. Let's check in with them and go to Obama headquarters in San Antonio and NBC's Lee Cowan. Good evening again.

LEE COWAN, NBC NEWS CORRESPONDENT: Good evening. Yes, those - especially that area around Cleveland is very, very important for the Obama campaign. They spent a lot of time in that area, so if they can get these hours extended, that certainly goes to their favor. They were already worried last night about the weather. They were talking about it amongst themselves last night, about how bad it was going to be, how it was going to affect turnout, who exactly would that benefit. So the longer those polls stay open, they think the better chance they have.

OLBERMANN: And their expectations in Ohio, am I correct on this, were in the big cities, going down the list there, Cleveland, Cincinnati, then maybe Toledo as the third bet? Is that correct?

SHUSTER: Yes, very much so. Like you said, Cincinnati as well. I think they were hoping to do well. Especially Cleveland, that was one of those places where I think we went four times over the last couple of weeks. They really focused a lot of attention there, a lot of advertising dollars there as well. They took out some of those big full-page ads in some of the major newspapers across Ohio as well.

So they are counting on that a lot.

OLBERMANN: That's Lee Cowan, who is not bringing us the weather, even though we saw the weather map over part of his report. Thank you, Lee. Now to the Clinton campaign. NBC's Andrea Mitchell back in Columbus. Again, everybody gets their own exit polls, their own information. We've been hearing preliminary numbers out of Ohio that become essentially more preliminary because the poll extensions, at least in Sandusky and maybe a couple of other key counties - what they're getting, what the Clinton camp is getting, are they optimistic about it? Does it jibe with what we've been hearing here?

ANDREA MITCHELL, NBC NEWS CORRESPONDENT: They are optimistic. I keep getting thumbs up from some of the people who are looking at their reports from the field. They think that they are putting back together that coalition of older women, of blue collar men and other laborers. The women, obviously, who are not only older, but those who make less than 50,000 dollars a year. Exactly the coalition they had before Maryland, Virginia and the other series of primaries they started losing.


So, if they can do that here in Ohio, they think that they have the possibility as well in Texas. By the way, they think it's not just NAFTA and the anxiety over jobs, but it's what she has projected in the last couple weeks in her advertising, in the debate, in her appearances at these rallies about being a fighter.

OLBERMANN: And yet, we have still that other number, the means by projecting that, as a corollary to it, which is that other exit poll information, which suggested the question, did either of these candidates unfairly attack the other. The Ohio number was Clinton 52 percent, Obama 33 percent.

There is obviously a price to be paid. Is the calculation that the price in getting that score that's on the screen right now is worth it if you, in fact, alarm people, to put it politely. Alarm potential voters toward your camp and away from your rival's?

MITCHELL: It's always risky to go on the attack because at the same time as you're driving up your opponent's negatives, you hope, you're driving up your own. And Hillary Clinton already has a problem in people viewing her as being more polarizing. But in this case, it seems to be working, at least according to what they are inferring from the reports they're getting from around the state.

Now, it's still too early, Obviously too close to call. I have to tell you, I've not seen the mood as good as it is here in a long time.

MATTHEWS: Andrea, I have to tell you, I hate to out-report you, but tonight, sometime tonight, you'll have confetti fall on you. It's all planned. Hillary, Bill and Chelsea will all be there tonight declaring victory of some sort, whether it's for three states, one state or whatever, a victory party has been planned. It includes confetti.

And the big three. It will happen.

MITCHELL: It always includes confetti. There is a report that Bill Clinton is already planning to go to Wyoming on Thursday. That would be in addition to the schedule. As you know, Chris, just 24 hours ago, I was telling you I thought if she didn't pull it off in Ohio and Texas, rather in both Ohio and Texas, I thought that the wiser, older heads in the campaign were going to insist that she take a serious look at backing out, because of the super delegates who would abandon her in droves.

That still could happen if she doesn't win both. But I don't think it's just spin. I think they have found enough of a silver lining so far in what they're seeing. Of course, we don't have the actual vote counts yet, so it's too early.

MATTHEWS: The victory party has been planned. It has been choreographed. Thank you very much, Andrea Mitchell. Let's go to Tim Russert, NBC's Washington bureau chief and moderator of "Meet The Press." Tim, I was thinking back on the Ted Kennedy versus Jimmy Carter fight that went on through the spring of 1980, where every time one guy looked like he was going to win, the voters said, why don't we vote for the other guy tonight. Just to keep it hot.

TIM RUSSERT, "MEET THE PRESS": Just keep it going. It's been so interesting listening to the two campaigns, Chris. You'll have the Obama people saying, just take a breather here, everybody. Hillary Clinton is the most recognizable woman in American politics, the former first lady. She was ahead in Ohio and Texas by 20 points, Rhode Island 30 points. She should be winning these states easily and she's not. Therefore, it's all about the delegates. And unless she makes inroads on the delegates, she has nothing to proclaim as being positive tonight.

The Clinton campaign saying, wait a minute. Barack Obama's won 11 in a row. He should be sweeping these states tonight if he's going to be the consensus choice to be our party's nominee. And the fact that it's this close at this far along indicates that there's buyer's remorse and people want to keep this race going. We're going to have those two spins, I think, all tonight, all morning long, and for the next two weeks.


There's no doubt about it. This race is going to continue, because even if one of the candidates happens to win these states by a few votes, on Clinton's side she's going to say, I'm sorry, the voters have spoken. I won. I go on. And don't bother me with details about delegates.

OLBERMANN: Tim, one question about breaking out these numbers and saying that an alignment has been realized. It sounds like we're talking about shocks and lube jobs here. Does anybody going into a voting booth ever look at what the demographic breakdowns were in the last state's primaries? Is this a reconstituted - whatever way it breaks, are these reconstituted support groups, demographic groups, or is this just happens to be how those groups vote in a state, in this case Ohio?

RUSSERT: It's a combination of both. That's a great question because every state has similar demographics that we can look at and compare. But the circumstances in each state is different. And what I mean by that is in Virginia and Maryland, the white ethnic voter has a different economic (R)MD+IN¯(R)MDNM¯situation than that of the voter in Ohio. Even in Wisconsin, Keith, there were more people who made - in the Democratic party made more than 100,000 dollars than in Ohio.

Ohio is one of the lowest per capita incomes in the country for registered Democratic voters. And so, I think we have to keep looking at this micro chasm of Ohio, a state where 90 percent of the voters said tonight the economy was either fair or poor. And they are petrified about their own economic security and future. So, I think that's the disparity, the difference we're seeing in the voting behavior as compared to Wisconsin or Virginia or Maryland.

OLBERMANN: Tim Russert, stand by. Let's turn to Tom Brokaw. Obviously from what Mr. Matthews reported that the confetti is ready for launch. Now we move back to a Cape Canaveral analogy. The confetti's ready to go in Columbus. There will be something for the Clintons to celebrate, even if that's the only thing, even if it turns out that the delegate count went in favor of Obama.

This then redirects us to Pennsylvania. And what in the context of this condensed, super fast, primary season looks like a million years. Seven weeks in one place.

TOM BROKAW, NBC NEWS ANCHOR: You know, I was - when Tim was talking about 1980, when Jimmy Carter and Ted Kennedy were contesting, Jimmy Carter had said - pardon my language, this is a direct quote from the president. He said if Ted Kennedy runs against me, I'll kick his ass. That's what he said at the beginning of the campaign. At the end, he did it.

But before he would manage to beat him at the convention, he had hoped to stop him in Pennsylvania. And Pat Kadell (ph) told President Carter at 7:30 that night that he was going to win Pennsylvania. At 8:15, the president called Pat in his hotel room and said how are we doing, and Kadell had to clear his throat and say, sir, we have lost Pennsylvania. As you know, the campaign went on from there.

So that gives awe little bit of a historical perspective and what the Democrats have been through in the past. It was a time when the Democrats lost to Ronald Reagan that year, but they lost in part because you'll remember that not very attractive scene on the podium at the Democratic convention, when Ted Kennedy came to give what was a memorable speech, but spent most of his time before giving that speech evading the president of the United States, who was trailing him around the podium at the Democratic national convention, refusing, on the part of Ted Kennedy, to shake his hand or to raise it in any kind of unity.

I think if the party does go on from here, the larger test will be if it gets all the way to the convention, how do they emerge from the convention? How do the two combatants then begin to deal with each other?

Just one other point, if I can, Keith. In Texas tonight, something to keep your eye on, a lot of white suburban Republicans are saying they like Barack Obama. And that's a big concern to the Republican party in that state.

OLBERMANN: Tom Brokaw and Tim Russert, thanks to you both.


MATTHEWS: Let's go back to Andrea Mitchell, who is at the Clinton headquarters with Terry McAuliffe.

MITCHELL: Thanks very much guys. Terry McAuliffe, you've been very upbeat. What are you hearing from your field operatives in Texas and Ohio?

TERRY MCAULIFFE, CLINTON CAMPAIGN CHAIRMAN: It feels good. I think we're going to win both Texas and Ohio. I'm here in Ohio. You can feel the enthusiasm. I think Hillary's message of who would be the best commander in chief, who would be the best steward of the economy, that resonated in both Texas and in Ohio. I think tonight is going to be huge.

You add these big states to the states that Hillary's already won; these are states that are important for the general election. Winning tonight in Texas and Ohio, the momentum coming out of here tomorrow, we then head on, Pennsylvania April 22nd. Going to have another big win there for Hillary.

MITCHELL: Terry, she is so far behind in delegates, even coming out of this - if she were to win these two states, which is still too close to call -

MCAULIFFE: Sure.

MITCHELL: - she'd still be behind in delegates. Doesn't he have an argument that he is ahead in delegates, he won 12 straight so far, until we get the other results tonight. He's got, some would say, a better argument than she does.

MCAULIFFE: I would remind you, we still have 12 states yet to vote. We have a lot of delegates still out there. We have a long way to go. I remind you, Bill Clinton did not win the nomination until June, 1992. John Kerry, four years ago, won it in the middle of March. We still have a lot of votes to be cast. We should let the voters of Pennsylvania and West Virginia and Kentucky and all of these states, they ought to be able to vote. Let's see how it goes.

But I feel very comfortable. This is a big message tonight. Hillary Clinton will have won California, Texas, Ohio, New York, New Jersey, Florida, Michigan. These are huge states, Andrea, for the Democratic party and the general election. It tells you something. Barack Obama's campaign way outspent us in these states. Yet, Hillary's economic message and her message on national security is the message that will have won the day today.

MITCHELL: Barack Obama apparently - yes, go ahead. He can hear you, Chris.

MATTHEWS: Question, that is about how your candidate will be able to win the most delegates when the whole fight is over before you get to Denver. Can you get a new election in Florida after Pennsylvania? For example, if you just follow a - if you win two big ones tonight, if you win Pennsylvania on the 22nd of April, can you get another election in Florida and make it possible to win the elected delegates?

MCAULIFFE: Sure. Yesterday, as you know, I believe the governor of Florida said that he'd be willing to put on another primary there. Let's let all of the voters go again, if they are willing to do it. A million seven people, Chris, as you know, voted. Every name was on the ballot. It was because the Republicans moving it up that the Democrats were penalized. So, there was no campaigning, but a million seven voters went to the polls.


We can't disenfranchise Florida, especially after 2000. We can't do it to them again. Michigan and Florida are two key states for the Democratic party for this coming November. So whatever we have to do to get people in the system, let's do it.

MATTHEWS: Will you accept a deal where you get a primary in Florida after Pennsylvania and you allow a caucus in Michigan? Or do you want two primaries now?

MCAULIFFE: I want primaries. You know why I like primaries? They are there all day, everybody can come in and vote during the day. The problem with some of these caucuses is they are defined to an hour or two. Many people, they take care of their children, they have multiple jobs; they can't go spend two hours in a room. Let's make it easy for people to vote.

You go in, you got all day to do it. You close the curtain and you vote for the person you think will be the best commander in chief. We're for that. We want everybody to be counted.

MATTHEWS: Will you allow the counted elected delegates to decide who wins this nomination? You say you want everybody to vote. You just said it, Terry. If, after all of these primaries and caucuses, and the other candidate or your candidate has the most elected delegates, will you live with that result at that point, after Puerto Rico? Will you live with the election?

MCAULIFFE: Chris, we're going to do what the rules show.

MATTHEWS: But you said you believe that everybody voting. I'm just asking, will you allow the vote to count? That's all I'm asking.

MCAULIFFE: We want all the votes to count. We want all the delegates, pledged, unpledged. These are the rules you have to live by, so everybody ought to be counted. Senator Obama cannot get the nomination without counting on some super delegates. We're going to have to have super delegates in our mix. These are the rules of the Democratic party.

That's what we have. We don't have winner take all, like the Republicans.

MATTHEWS: In terms of your argument two minutes ago - Terry, you just made the case we should allow everyone to vote. Once everyone has voted, shouldn't that be the decision? Why do you have to go to super delegates to reverse the decision of the popular vote by the Democratic party?

MCAULIFFE: Chris, you used to be a Democrat and a member of the Democratic party.

MATTHEWS: That is a cheap shot. But go ahead. Appeal to me. Appeal to my judgment.


MCAULIFFE: No. No. You ask actually used to work for Tip O'Neal.

MATTHEWS: I know. It's not working with me. Sorry. If that's your best case, you're going to lose this baby, but good luck with the fight.

MCAULIFFE: Let me tell you, Chris. The rules are, when we got in this race, we know what they are, what you have to do to win the nomination. And you know what? Let's let everybody finish up. We have 12 more contests to go. We have a lot of delegates to go. We go to Puerto Rico on June 7th, finish the process up. The goal is to get as many people involved in the process as possible.

MATTHEWS: OK, Terry. Let's have a big town meeting in Pennsylvania with the "HARDBALL" college tour. We'll have Senator Clinton before thousands of students. It will be a great night for us all.

MCAULIFFE: Let me tell you this, Chris. I can tell you know, Hillary Clinton would love to be on stage with you in Pennsylvania. I don't think there is anything more than she'd be looking forward to. So let's do that. I'm all for it.

MATTHEWS: We have formed a great alliance for the people. Thank you. Andrea Mitchell, back to you.

OLBERMANN: Thanks to Andrea Mitchell and Terry McAuliffe and Chris. I think you'll wind up debating him.

MATTHEWS: No. No. I want to have a chance to have the students of Pennsylvania in our college tour bring the questions to the candidates, both of them.

OLBERMANN: It will be a debate. Coming up, in about 35 minutes, the polls close in Rhode Island and in Texas. When we return, Chuck Todd will explain the delegate math in Texas, where which percent you get means that some 10 percent is more valuable than another 10 percent.

Plus, new numbers from our exit polling and Norah O'Donnell. MSNBC's Decision 2008 coverage continues after this.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

OLBERMANN: We're awaiting results in Ohio. We'll get some, although 15 precincts in Cuyahoga County, that is Cleveland, will be open until 9:00 Eastern. Right now, the Democratic race there is considered too close to call. There will be no projections certainly until the last polls close.


In Texas, most polls are closed. We have results coming in. We've seen them already and they have gone early and heavily, primarily due to the early voting that's been going on for nearly two weeks in Texas, in favor of Senator Obama. But we can't characterize the race there until the polls in the western most part of the state close at 9:00 eastern.

You might want to get a pencil and pad and write some of this down. NBC News political director Chuck Todd joins us again with a preview of what to expect in the Lone Star State and how to understand it when we do expect it. Chuck?

CHUCK TODD, NBC NEWS POLITICAL DIRECTOR: I want to say, it's not like Cuyahoga is an important county in Ohio. It's not like it's part of Cleveland or anything.

OLBERMANN: It wouldn't be an Ohio election if the polls didn't stay open or close early or wash out or whatever.

TODD: We might get the Texas caucus results before the polls close in Ohio. Let's look at this crazy - the Ohio, the primary, and the caucus and really, the challenge that Hillary Clinton has tonight in this, because of how complicated it is. First, let's look at the primary. OK, 126 delegates up. They are all distributed or allocated by state Senate districts.

There are actually fewer state Senate districts in Texas than there are Congressional districts, 31 state Senate districts, 32 Congressional districts. So assume Hillary Clinton - let's say she wins 51-49, a narrow win. All the polls - she would be very happy. She would win the popular vote.

The likelihood of her actually winning a majority of these 126 delegates - haven't gotten to the caucus yet - very unlikely. Why? Because of how - where African-American delegates are allocated, where the Austin-based part of the state senate districts have more delegates that they allocate it. And these are places Obama is going to do well.

In this scenario, 51-49, he's likely to net more delegates out of this, probably something like 64-62 out of this 126. And he could lose by two points and probably net more delegates just out of this 126 piece of the pie.

Well, that's only two-thirds of the pie. We have this wonderful little caucus part of things which is going on now, and reports of chaos are ensuing, as we know.

We don't know for sure, we won't have these results, possibly as late as this weekend, because you can - if you're a precinct captain, you can mail in your results on Friday. You don't have to mail them in tonight for some reason. You can do it Friday.

Go figure.

But let's assume he gets just 55 percent, which would be a weak-performing caucus for Obama when you look at his history of caucuses. If he just got 55 percent of these delegates, of these 67, that would give him a 36-31 delegate advantage over Senator Clinton, so he would end up netting - he would end up netting - she would get 93 out of here, and he would get 100. And yet, she would win the popular vote.


He would obviously do well in the caucus. And this is the thing - he could net seven delegates out of here and lose the popular vote. And this is being a very conservative estimate, but we obviously can sit here, and we're going to go through these state senate districts as the night wears on and figure out exactly what these allocations are.

But right now, you look at this. If this is as close as everything appears to be, Obama could lose by a couple of points, net delegates. We already showed how it's possible in Ohio.

These allocations really do run against Senator Clinton, which makes this spin game tomorrow a big challenge if she happens to win the popular vote in both Ohio and Texas and yet lose on the delegate side.

OLBERMANN: It depends on what your definition of "win" is.

All right. Chuck Todd, great. Thanks.

TODD: See you.

OLBERMANN: Obviously this brings a whole new meaning to that familiar dance title the Texas Two-Step.

For more on that, let's turn to NBC's Lester Holt, who's at one of the caucus sites in Houston at an elementary school there.

Lester, good evening.

HOLT: Good evening.

We are in a cafeteria at an elementary school. Four years ago there were about 45 people who came to the Democratic caucus. We stopped counting at 350, and they are still lined up at the door.

What's happening now is, going by the rules, they are about to elect a chairman, a secretary. They are also doing the sign-in.


The sign-in is really the key part of the caucus system here. You come in and you sign in for either Obama or Clinton, or you can sign in uncommitted.

And they even have math. They call it the easy math sheet that the officials will go down, and based on the votes, they will allocate the number of delegates.

Now, I've never been to a precinct convention or a caucus, but I'm in good company. Most of the people in this room have not been to one either.

I talked to a lot of folks, "Hey, it's my first time." They were advertising heavily here in Texas that the Texas Two-Step, that it's important that if you came to vote, come back in the evening for the caucus portion.

At this elementary school they had a pretty good - my math, based on the numbers they gave me, they had about a 37 percent turnout here today. They did electronic voting, so their numbers are already being reported to the central state authorities. Those are unofficial numbers, by the way, 37 percent turnout at this precinct.

A heavily Democratic area. We're just a few blocks from Rice University, a rather affluent area, a very mixed population here. And right now an overflow crowd in this room right now.

People, a show of hands right now as they vote for a chairman. But again, the sign-in.

This is not going to be the horse trading we've seen in some of the other caucuses. Once you sign in for Obama or Clinton or uncommitted, that's it. They will do a little other business here in preparation for their state convention, but basically the sign-in, that will be it. And we should have some results here fairly - in fairly short order.

Let's go back to you right now.

OLBERMANN: Thank you, Lester.

Better a two-tier than a three-tier program.

Meanwhile, in the other tier, a little news out of Texas on this. As voting draws to a close at 9:00 Eastern, some Dallas county precincts are reporting long lines extending outside onto the streets in Texas.


So here we go again. Too few votes in Ohio, late lines, extensions granted by judges. Bad weather, everything else making the ability to predict what's going to happen, and one side - or both sides to celebrate. Perhaps both sides might proclaim victory tonight.

Let's get what we do have, the exit polls. More on that, another wave of them coming in. And for that we turn once again to Norah O'Donnell - Norah.

O'DONNELL: And good evening to you, Keith.

And we are witnessing what may be a transformation in Ohio for Hillary Clinton, who appears to have won back her base. That's why it's too close to call in Ohio right now. And it's very interesting.

We have a Democratic Party in Ohio that is divided by race, gender, and age. Here are the numbers.

First, race.

Among white voters, Clinton is winning women by a large margin. Look at that, 66 percent to Obama's 44 percent. She's also winning among white men, with 55 percent to Obama's 44 percent. Now, remember, Obama has won white men in past contests, so this is different what we're seeing in Ohio.

Now, among black voters in Ohio, Obama is winning both men and women. See that? By a large margin. But black voters only make about 19 percent of the Democratic electorate in this state.

Now, as for voters by age, Obama is getting two-thirds of young voters. That's that number right up here, as well as a majority of those age 30-44. But Hillary Clinton is getting the over 45 group and taking an overwhelming number of the seniors.

And what's interesting is we're talking about these two numbers right here. That is one of the largest margins.

You see that 70 percent right there? Rather down there, 70 percent to the 29 percent? That is one of the largest margins we have seen this entire primary season among seniors.

It's also interesting to note that in Ohio, one in five Democratic voters said race was an important factor in making their decision. And in that group, eight in 10 voted for Clinton - Keith.


OLBERMANN: Norah O'Donnell.

And let's just update you. Texas, it's still at the top of the hour when the polls close there. They close also at the top of the hour in Rhode Island. In some places in Ohio they will close at the top of the hour, where it is still too close to call, despite all of those exit poll indicators. Whatever they mean in terms of actual delegate counts is something for much later in the evening. There is virtually everything but Vermont to be decided here as the evening continues.

David Gregory, Tom Brokaw, Tim Russert will all be with us when we return.

MSNBC's "Decision 2008" coverage continues after this.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

OLBERMANN: Polls in Texas and Rhode Island will be closed at 9:00 Eastern, 19 minutes from now. We continue to watch the votes come in from Ohio, where it remains too close to call between Senators Clinton and Obama in the Democratic primary.

This note on the Republican side of things. A Huckabee senior aide telling NBC News and "The National Journal" that Mike Huckabee tonight will congratulate Senator McCain and will be in touch with the McCain campaign tomorrow from Little Rock to coordinate a concession.

"The handwriting is on the wall," the aide said, and indicated that was the plan, whether or not Senator McCain officially reaches 1,191 delegates tonight. The aide said that Huckabee wants to have contact with McCain tomorrow in Little Rock before deciding what next to do.

We've already projected a victorious evening for McCain in Ohio and Vermont, the two places where the polls have largely or completely already closed.

NBC News Chief White House Correspondent David Gregory is with us here.

Will Mr. Huckabee find Senator McCain in Little Rock tomorrow, or does the senator have other plans?

DAVID GREGORY, NBC CHIEF WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: The senator has got other plans. I think we're going to see tomorrow as a day of consolidation for John McCain.


Republican sources telling us tonight that assuming Senator McCain goes over the top, becomes the presumptive nominee - and that is the expectation - that he will go tomorrow to the White House to formally be endorsed by President Bush at the White House and at an event there. A lot of symbolism, and a big bully pulpit for both Senator McCain and a lame duck president who intends to campaign for Senator McCain.

So again, Republican sources saying, if he is over the top, McCain will get President Bush's endorsement tomorrow at the White House before going to the Republican National Committee to have the party officially name him the presumptive nominee.

And keep a couple of important points there. A real contrast to the Democrats, if this is still a muddled race coming out of tonight.

John McCain wants to consolidate, he wants conservatives behind him. President Bush can help.

He can also help a great deal in beginning to help McCain raise the money to get on a general election footing. And that's what he expects to do.

Sources within the White House saying tonight the president finds McCain to be an attractive candidate despite all of the water under the bridge between them, to focus hard on campaigning for him on the areas of national security and taxes. And we're going to see that beginning tomorrow. Not ruling out even some presidential travel with McCain and getting that organized rather quickly - Keith.

OLBERMANN: David, have I been in a coma and didn't know it? Has not all the talk for the last year been that whoever the Republican nominee was going to be, they would try to stay as far away from President Bush, especially the idea of the president campaigning for him, as possible?

GREGORY: Well, I think you do it very judiciously and you do it carefully if you're the Republican nominee.

It is a misnomer that President Bush cannot help you some. Yes, President Bush is very unpopular in the country at large. Yes, certainly in Democratic circles he is extremely unpopular. But in conservative parts of the country, places where Senator McCain wants to consolidate support, President Bush can still be a great deal of help - fundraising, he can still be a great deal of help. And I think Senator McCain has said in the past that he would use him carefully.

OLBERMANN: David Gregory, great thanks for the information.

GREGORY: Sure.

MATTHEWS: Thank you.


Michelle Bernard is with the group Independent Women's Voice.

Michelle, I'm looking through these numbers tonight, and it gets to that interesting question, that sort of cultural class issue, if you will. We hate the word "class" in America, but it's there between the Starbucks crowd and the Dunkin' Donuts crowd. I actually like Dunkin' Donuts, as well as Starbucks.

But you know, until these elections today, most of the voters have been four-year college people. And you saw it, numbers up to 60 percent in states like Connecticut.

And today we're look at - I'm looking at the college graduate percentage here in Ohio and Texas. It's below 40 percent. It's around 40 percent. In fact, if you average it out, lower in Ohio.

It could be, could it not, I'm leaving the question here, that Hillary Clinton does better when working folk are back up to the numbers they represent in the population as a whole, that it's not an elite contest?

MICHELLE BERNARD, INDEPENDENT WOMEN'S VOICE: You know, I think you probably hit the nail right on the head.

I went back tonight and I took a look at the Mark Penn memo - you know, Mark Penn being Senator Clinton's chief strategist. He sent out a memo to interested parties on February 13th. We talked about it earlier, but in that memo he really laid out their strategy.

And remember, he said change begins on March 4th. And he laid out a strategy for winning Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, and that strategy was white women, it was Latinos, it was the working class, it was the economy, and Senator Clinton really depicting herself as the person with the solution for working class America.

And I've got to tell you, at least in Ohio tonight, what the exit polls are telling me is that advertisement that Senator Clinton did over the weekend, for example - you know, it's 3:00 a.m. and the telephone is ringing, was really appealing to the advent of the security mom that we saw with the 2004 election. I think that white women in Ohio - white women in general have been her base all along, but white women in Ohio and the working class, I really think took a look at that ad, and are thinking about security, they're thinking about their children, they're thinking about the economy. And I think that for whatever reason, that ad went over very well in Ohio, and we are going to be able to see - we might be seeing a sort of class warfare in the state of Ohio, at least.

MATTHEWS: And for the group we're talking about - we're watching the ad here with a subdued, muted voice there. We're looking at fear perhaps trumping hope. To be blunt.

BERNARD: Yes. And you know, it's interesting, because we have heard President Clinton in the past say - former President Bill Clinton, I should say - in the past say that you should go for the candidate who is giving you hope and not fear. But really, things changed after 9/11, and in 2004 we saw Democratic women and Republican women putting George Bush back in the White House because of fear.

There were many women who took a look at, for example, the Beslan school massacre in Russia when all of those children were murdered by terrorists. And women are thinking, that could be my child. That could happen here in the United States.


And I think Hillary Clinton's strategists were brilliant with this advertisement, at least in the state of Ohio, because I think it played on people's fears. And when you talk about women and their children, they want to know that you're going to take action first, and ask questions later on.

MATTHEWS: Well, as F. Scott Fitzgerald said, it's in the deepest part of the soul - the darkest part of the soul, it's always 3:00 in the morning. And I think perhaps we'll find out tonight whether the Clinton campaign has tapped into that darkest fear in our souls, 24/7.

Thank you very much, Michelle Bernard.

OLBERMANN: With all of the polls in Texas set to close at 9:00 Eastern, let's turn now to Texas political reporter James Moore, co-author of the book "Bush's Brain," which you have not made the connection, is about Karl Rove.

Jim, good to talk to you tonight.

JAMES MOORE, Texas POLITICAL REPORTER: Hi, Keith. Good to be with you.

OLBERMANN: All right. So what's going on in Texas? And most importantly, will we know what went on in Texas before, say, Friday or Saturday?

MOORE: Yes, I think you will. I think that the caucuses - the Obama people are unbelievably organized down here.

Just by way of an example, you know, after the last primary was settled, the Obama people had their precinct captains all across Texas in a manner of days. And as late as last week, Hillary Clinton was still calling around looking for precinct captains.

I mean, in Travis County alone, Senator Obama has signed up about 9,000 volunteers. George Bush did not have that. And Hillary Clinton today has about 39 people in Travis County working the phones. So, I'm not sure - I mean, I could be wrong, I usually am, but my guess is, Keith, that - not to slip into the Texas vernacular, but this ain't going to be the happiest of rodeos she's ever been to.

OLBERMANN: Do we have a hint as to what the Clinton strategy is if that unhappy rodeo takes place, if she gets thrown from that buck in three or four seconds? With this bit of information that, as we speak, a conference call is starting. It is described by the Hillary Clinton campaign as an emergency press call to discuss caucus intimidation and irregularities in Texas with the Clinton campaign attorney.

In other words, are we being warmed up for, well, yes, the senator did not do very well in Texas, but here are the things that went wrong in the process? She wasn't defeated by Senator Obama there, if that's in fact what it turns out, she was defeated by ghosts?


MOORE: Well, she's going to complain about the process. And let's face it, we have a sort of hybrid, bastardized version of democracy with this whole business of the primacaucus.

But you don't have to stay at the caucus and be involved in the debates. You can walk in, sign your name and leave. And your vote counts for your candidate.

But what we are seeing - just before we went on the air I heard from several people at a number of caucuses around the state these things were jammed. These were really lively discussions. And I think because the Obama people have been so well organized in managing the caucus part of this, he's going to surprise her with the number of delegates he gets out of the caucus.

And remember also that where she is really strong among the Mexican-American voters of Texas, their number of delegates has gone down since the last election because they are historically proportioned based upon turnout last election, and it wasn't good.

OLBERMANN: All right. And what is the premise here? Apparently, the argument that's being made - and we don't have details on this yet - is that there were illegal obtaining of caucus packets in several precincts in Tarrant County, Dallas County, Fort - that's Houston, of course - Dallas - well, Dallas is mentioned twice here - El Paso and Travis.

What is a caucus packet? Is that the thing that's central to the process of that part of Texas?

MOORE: Yes, it's an information document. It's like an envelope that tells you how the caucus is going to work, how you do x, y and z, the processes, how a vote is counted, how you can have your voice heard.

It's all of these things. But I don't know how one illegally obtains these things. The goal is always to have them in circulation and make people understand the process.

Now, she could be talking about something else. I don't know.

OLBERMANN: Far in advance is the terminology that's being used as I read further into the document.

MOORE: Yes.

OLBERMANN: So there is some advantage to be gained by reading this guide to your caucus, your caucus and you, things to worry about at your caucus, how to avoid spreading disease at the caucus? If you get this early somehow this is an illegal advantage?


MOORE: I don't know what the advantage is. But you know, the problem for Senator Clinton in making these kinds of claims is that in Texas, a place where there is this sort of frontier ethic of independence and individualism, when you start whining about things you start alienating more and more people.

And first it was the vast right wing conspiracy, and now it's the primacaucus system. And now it's the illegal, far advance obtaining of caucus packets.

I mean, this is not going to serve her well if she goes beyond Texas tonight. But my suspicion, based upon the long lines that you see over in east Austin, which is predominantly Hispanic and African-American voters, very, very big turnout over there. Lines going blocks long. I don't think that she is going to do as well as she hoped she would in Texas.

OLBERMANN: Not a happy rodeo for Jim Moore. We always listen to Jim Moore in Texas.

Thank you, sir.

MOORE: You're welcome, Keith.

MATTHEWS: Let's go right back to Joe scarborough and the panel - Joe.

SCARBOROUGH: Thank you so much.

We actually have a debate going on here right now because we've been hearing about Hillary Clinton all night - is she running a dirty campaign, is she appealing to Democrats' worst instincts?

Maybe I'm just a cold-hearted Republican, but this seems to be down the center.

BUCHANAN: I mean, there's nothing wrong with saying, who do you - which of these two, the community organizer or Hillary Rodham Clinton, do you want answering the red phone in the White House when the balloon goes up? I mean, that goes to experience, competence, who do you trust? That's what campaigns are all about.

SCARBOROUGH: Rachel, why does that appeal to fear?


MADDOW: That appeals - there is a reason that phone rings insistently throughout that ad. It rings insistently. You're worried about it. You're looking at sleeping children.

It's telling you - it's raising the specter that those children will not be safe, and that's supposed to motivate your vote. That is a fear mongering campaign ad. I'm not...

SCARBOROUGH: Do you think we live in a world where our families and our communities and our country are not at risk?

MADDOW: No. But there's - listen, if you're trying to make voters make their decision because they are afraid, that's a different thing than asking to make voters make their decision based on their best hopes or how we deal.

(CROSSTALK)

BUCHANAN: Who do you trust when the safety and security of the country?

MADDOW: What do you do when you're afraid? That's what this is.

SCARBOROUGH: Are we talking about Ahmadinejad or Osama bin Laden?

ROBINSON: Well, look, the ad is over the top. But I don't think it was out of bounds. You know?

SCARBOROUGH: Why do you think it was over the top?

ROBINSON: You know...

BUCHANAN: If it's over the top, why did he re-run his own just like it?


MADDOW: He didn't. He ran an ad that said - that stopped the phone ringing.

ROBINSON: He responded.

(CROSSTALK)

BUCHANAN: Go for me answering the phone call.

ROBINSON: I don't think it was out of bounds, but yes, it was an appeal to fear. Of course it was an appeal to fear. And it wasn't a mushroom cloud.

(CROSSTALK)

SCARBOROUGH: I don't understand. It's an appeal to fear? It's an appeal - does anybody on this panel not believe that we Americans are at risk?

Or is it truly the end of history? Did we win the Cold War and we can now continue spending the peace dividend well into the future?

MADDOW: Joe, here's what Democrats ought to be doing about the pressure to America right now. They ought to say, listen, Republicans have long campaigned on making Americans afraid, but they have not made us any safer.

BUCHANAN: All right. That's fine.

MADDOW: The Republicans trying to run on national security is like Keystone Cops trying to be tough on crime.

BUCHANAN: All right. Let me talk, Joe. Let me tell you...


SCARBOROUGH: But what is wrong in saying...

BUCHANAN: Nothing.

SCARBOROUGH:... that a guy that started running for president one year after he got to Washington may not be the one you want to answer that phone?

BUCHANAN: Exactly. Now, let me talk to that.

Both of you - both of you, let me talk to this. Both of you do not trust the American people. You really don't.

What you're saying is, oh, my goodness, you're going to frighten those poor people into going and doing something they are too immature to understand, that we're talking about a phone call at 3:00 a.m.

ROBINSON: Imagine Margaret Thatcher running that ad about the IRA, OK? Would she do that? No.

MADDOW: No.

SCARBOROUGH: All right.

BUCHANAN: Well, listen, she should do it because - it's a good ad. She is one that can deal with the IRA. She's one that...

MADDOW: Scare the people. It's good for America.

BUCHANAN: You've got some wimpy laborite against her? Of course you run that ad.


(CROSSTALK)

MADDOW: (INAUDIBLE) will always do what's right by the nation.

Unbelievable, Pat. Unbelievable.

SCARBOROUGH: The teacher is ringing the bell. We go back to him now.

There we go. Once again, Keith has a little bell, and he enjoys playing with it. He will be riding his bicycle around during the break.

Back to Chris and Keith.

OLBERMANN: No, that's not what that means. Joe, that means fries are up.

(LAUGHTER)

OLBERMANN: Chris and I will return in a moment.

At the top of the hour, polls will be closed in Texas and Rhode Island. Results may be coming momentarily, certainly on the Republican side. We may have some characterizations for you.

MSNBC's "Decision 2008" coverage returns right after this.

KEITH OLBERMANN, MSNBC ANCHOR: At 9:00 Eastern time, polls have closed in Texas and in Rhode Island and in most of Ohio finally. And first we will look at the Republicans. The Texas Republicans will go to John McCain. Our NBC News projected winner there. Not unexpected, but he will gain, this is the important part, at least 89 delegates in Texas.


Meantime in Rhode Island, Senator McCain will gain at least nine delegates. That means NBC News can project that John McCain has won 1,205 total delegates already and now is the presumptive Republican nominee for president based upon our delegate county and also the "Associated Press" allocation of Mitt Romney's delegates.

So there it is, a projection on the grand scale tonight with getting his 89 delegates at minimum in Texas and nine more at least in Rhode Island, John McCain has officially wrapped up the Republican nomination.

You may have heard David Gregory reporting earlier that he is to go to the White House to get the endorsement tomorrow of President Bush and appear in at least a series perhaps of fundraising events during the courts of the upcoming campaign in which John McCain is going to be officially the Republican nominee.

On the Democratic side, in Texas, listen to these words carefully. Too close to call, even though we have nearly 950, more than 950,000 votes counted and Senator Obama well ahead in those votes over Senator Clinton. A lot of early voting, weeks worth in Texas. This is too close to call.

Rhode Island where everything has just closed, too close to call in Rhode Island. And obviously no hard numbers yet, the polls closed 1:50 ago.

In Vermont, still too close - or Ohio rather, still too close to call. That one delayed by certain key precincts in Cuyahoga County, Cleveland, 15 of them in number, being delayed by bad weather and low ballot numbers, and several others in Sandusky County. The vote being extended to 9:00.

Too close to call in three of the states. Vermont went already to Senator Obama. We don't have a number yet, hard number on that in terms of how that's going to turn out. There is vote counts coming in. The threshold number that's important to Senator Obama, just a little under two-thirds, 64 percent would get a 10/5 split with Senator Clinton on delegates.

Good evening again from MSNBC and NBC News in New York alongside Chris Matthews, I'm Keith Olbermann. All right we may have, what do you think, we're going to have this before the end of the night. Senator Clinton and Senator Obama each declaring a victory for themselves sometime tonight?

CHRIS MATTHEWS, MSNBC ANCHOR: Well, I think it's very murky. And I think the

Republican Party has proven its ability to be organized in selecting a

candidate for president early on. I thought they were going to have you know,

what was I thinking of, Damascus on the road to St. Paul instead of St. Paul on


the road to Damascus.

But they ended up solving their problem. They've got a nominee. It's settled. The president's going to be behind him. It's the least expected nominee in the sense if you look back over the last couple of years, John McCain got beaten back in 2000 by the current president. He was drummed out of the establishment. He's come back, beaten the establishment, whatever there is left of it in a time when the president's very unpopular. He looms as his most likely successor if you just count all three candidates here because he's got the nomination and neither one of the other two have theirs yet.

And so it's a surprising year. And John McCain now will pick a running mate, probably Mark Sanford, somebody who's probably not too controversial, someone who's a fiscal conservative. He does not want to focus too much on this 100 years of war. I would think he will try to pull back from that and say let's win this baby and come home from Iraq.

He's certainly not going to move over and become more pro life, pushing it, I don't think, for a constitutional amendment to outlaw abortion. If he does that he could probably say good-bye to California, Connecticut, New Jersey, Maine and any state he might have a shot at. And I think he has a shot at all of those states.

So this general election is very much close right now. Either Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton will have a tough time beating John McCain as it stands now and that is a surprise if you look at the way this year came. If you look at the box this year came in marked "change." It is ironic that the man who represents the least change is in the solidest position to be the next president right now.

OLBERMANN: We'll see what the Democrats have to offer beside what is they have now for us in Texas and Rhode Island and Ohio, which is exit polls. Norah O'Donnell will have a full set of those later on in the hour, but is here right now a preview. Norah?

NORAH O'DONNELL, MSNBC CORRESPONDENT: In Texas, it's too close to call because

Hillary Clinton is winning among women. There is a split among the white male

vote. Of course Barack Obama had been doing very well in past contests in

white male votes. She is winning 2-1 in Latinos. And Latinos make up a larger

share of the electorate today than in 2004. Blacks make up a smaller share

than in 2004. Blacks of course go overwhelmingly for Barack Obama.


OLBERMANN: Norah O'Donnell with a preview of the exit polls. We'll get back to you during the hour Norah, thank you.

Let's turn to NBC's Tom Brokaw. Where do you want to start here? We've got a Republican nominee and we've got too close to call everywhere else.

TOM BROKAW, NBC NEWS CORRESPONDENT: Well let's talk about John McCain for a

moment and some of the concerns that Republicans already have for the fall.

It is interesting that he's going to go directly to the White House because he needs to get the party behind him. The president of the United States is still the head of the Republican Party however strongly in many people even in his own party feel about his failures, especially in the last four years.

And as any number of people indicated earlier, he still is a powerful fundraising instrument for him and he can use him selectively in places like Texas which was talking about a lot tonight. And in the south and in other states where President Bush does not have the disapproval ratings he does have in the northeast and in many parts of the industrial Midwest.

One of the concerns for the McCain campaign, I've been talking to a couple of their strategists, and they have been thunder struck by the strength of the Obama organization. They say come the fall, we think we can take him on, on the issues. And we used to believe that if we couldn't beat him there we could out-organize him. But in fact, what we're seeing from Barack Obama through all of these caucuses and the primary so far, is that this is a campaign with a very strong organizational component to it.

I really strongly believe that in the last election cycle George Bush won in part because of the strength of the Republican organization that was headed by Karl Rove knowing where the votes were and getting the max out of all of them.

This time it does look like if Obama becomes the candidate of the Democratic Party, the Republicans would be up against a much stronger candidate. I heard just a few moments ago talking about those complicated caucuses in Texas and Barack Obama so well organized down there. Just a week ago at this time, I was in Texas and heard President Bush at a rally in Austin, holding up a clipboard and identifying other people in the crowd saying those with the clip board can help you get to a caucus next Tuesday night. This is last Thursday night.

So that's how far behind the curve they were at that time. When it comes to the delegate count, you know, that could prove critical before the night is over. Finally, somebody close to the Obama campaign told me in the last 24 hours, that they have 50 super delegates that they identified that have not emerged for Senator Obama. They are prepared to. It's a question of how they roll them out.

OLBERMANN: Well, we want to get into that with you again in a moment, Tom. But we need to get to Kelly O'Donnell at McCain headquarters tonight in Dallas where obviously celebrations which have been long bottled up, at least from an official sense of view, certainly can come out now. Kelly, good evening.

KELLY O'DONNELL, MSNBC CORRESPONDENT: Good evening. This has been a night


that seemed hard to imagine only months ago when the John McCain campaign was

limping, broke and pretty much figured to be out of the race.

Well tonight he will surpass the 1,191 that is needed to secure the nomination. And you may be able to see a sign behind me that is draped in blue. Beneath that sign it has that that magic number of 1,191, and it will be unveiled when the senator comes to address supporters.

One of his closest friends, a former senator, told me boy, if John McCain knew that we put that on a sign before he actually clinched it, he would have been very upset because he is so superstitious. But it all seems to be coming together. The room here is packed. There are about 2,000 balloons overhead that they will release.

And of course what follows all of this are some really key developments. Of course the president of the United States will embrace John McCain as the next standard bearer of the party. He will now be free, the president that is, to campaign for him, something he said he very much wants to do. And at many of the events when we are with John McCain, he will make reference usually on the topic of doesn't the president of the United States deserve some credit?

That there has been no attack on the U.S. since '01 and there is typically a very strong response of support. So even though President Bush has had his problems with popularity and a very difficult war, there are some in Republican circles who will be eager to see him campaigning for John McCain.

The other thing he gets is of course the full support of the Republican National Committee, with all of their resources and personnel to begin expanding this into a national campaign. Keith?

OLBERMANN: Kelly O'Donnell at the Fairmount Hotel in Dallas, where the first part of this equation is about to take place.

At some distance, in fact, at the headquarters of the Huckabee campaign also in Dallas, at the pavilion there where in a few moments Governor Huckabee will giving a concession speech. And we'll see to what degree he endorses Senator McCain at that point. I don't know who that is on that big screen there, never mind about him.

Tim Russert is NBC's Washington bureau chief and the moderator of "Meet the Press." Tim, good evening again.

TIM RUSSERT, NBC WASHINGTON BUREAU CHIEF: Hey, Keith.

OLBERMANN: All right, so how do they use George Bush just enough, not too much?


RUSSERT: Very selectively. He'll raise a ton of money for the McCain ticket and for the Republican National Committee. They will use him in targeted states, particularly in military towns, and that will be it. They have to be very, very careful and judicious with him.

Keith, I think the big news out of tonight from a large perspective is that the Republicans have their nominee and the Democrats at this hour, we still don't have much clarity.

So, if the Democratic race does go forward, let's assume that Clinton wins which she thinks she has to and decides she can continue in the race. Obama very much wanted this period to be able to identify himself, to define himself, in a very large way as this agent of change, as this independent candidate and rather than being spending $25 million taking on Hillary Clinton.

If the Democrats go on till April 22nd, seven more weeks at least, John McCain will spend the next seven weeks, George Bush will spend the next seven weeks, every major Republican will spend the next seven weeks, defining Barack Obama. They already defined Hillary Clinton. Everyone knows her, but they will use this period to try to paint Barack Obama as a wild-eyed liberal who cannot be trusted on national security. And that's exactly what the Obama campaign did not want to happen in this interim.

OLBERMANN: To some degree, whether it was unintentional, inadvertent or whatever, to some degree has the Clinton campaign done some of that work for the McCain campaign in some of its advertisements in the last two, three weeks?

RUSSERT: Certainly the red phone, the ringing phone is an indication that Senator Clinton does not believe that Senator Obama would be someone who should be picking up that phone. But I think the - also, the clip that you ran tonight in which she says, "I have a lifetime experience, I'm bringing to the Oval Office. John McCain has a lifetime of experience he's bringing to the Oval Office. Barack Obama, he's bringing a speech."

That is devastating, I believe, and is a clip that will be used over and over again by the Republicans if, in fact, Obama emerges as the nominee. Because what it does is cuts to the very core, the foundation of Obama's ability to function as commander in chief.

MATTHEWS: This is an extraordinary development to have Senator Clinton point to the strengths of the Republican presumed nominee, at this point in the fight, isn't it? To say he is known and well known like I am and the other guy I'm against, Barack Obama, is the weakling here.

RUSSERT: I was very surprised by it, Chris. I think she was trying to say I can handle him mano-womano, in terms of debating national security issues.

But I think inadvertently or deliberately, what she did was position Obama in a very difficult position, come a national campaign, with her own words.

Tomorrow morning we should know a lot more about Ohio and Texas and the state of the Obama/Clinton campaigns. But as of now, if in fact this lack of clarity continues, and they decide to go forward, it is going to be a brutal seven weeks for the Democrats as they watch their candidates go after each other and look what happened this last week. It's not going to get any kinder or gentler.

MATTHEWS: When does it become clear, if it does occur, that the Clintons are interested in the Clintons and not in the Democratic Party? In other words, if they can be the referees in their own match, they will continue to fight to the end. Is there any real referee left in the Democratic Party that can come in and say the fight's over, you've lost.


RUSSERT: That's the interesting thing over the last few weeks. And the Obama people saying repeatedly, if we had lost 11 in a row, we would have been driven out of this race by the media. And you guys have given Hillary Clinton a pass on this despite what "Saturday Night Live" might say.

But the fact is, we are now in a situation where if tonight the number of elected delegates does not change all that much, that Hillary Clinton is still behind some 150, and if Tom Brokaw's reporting bears out over the next few days and the super delegates become a wash, then mathematically Hillary Clinton is going to have to demonstrate how she's going to close that gap.

I believe what the Clinton campaign will say is we don't know exactly how it's going to work out. What we know is that we win the big states and who knows what could happen. You saw what happened with the NAFTA situation. You saw what happened with the Tony Rezko trial. So let's keep this discussion going and maybe outside events will intervene.

OLBERMANN: Here's the part of that quote once again though. If you set up construction in which it's a seniority scoreboard, this quote doesn't just come back to haunt Senator Obama in some sort of McCain/Obama race. Does not quote not come back and serve as words out of Hillary Clinton's own words as to why if you're judging this on seniority and experience, you would vote for John McCain instead of Hillary Clinton?

RUSSERT: Well and many people think that the telephone ad does the same thing, that it really does play to his strengths. Obama saying if you want a clear definition of differences, delineation of differences, someone who is for the war and wants to have a strong U.S. commitment for decades to come, and someone who was against the war and wants to take troops home, you'll have it with me.

You won't have it if it's Clinton versus McCain. That's not going to go away. That's why it is so important in the Obama camp's mind that they resolve this Democratic primary quickly so they can start defining themselves against John McCain. Whether they have that wish granted tonight, we don't know. These races are so tight, so nip and tight. You look at those exit polls, you cannot make an interpretation as to who's going to win.

MATTHEWS: Tom Brokaw is still with us. Tom, there was a famous Al Smith dinner back in 1960 when Jack Kennedy, who was speaking against Nixon, they were adversaries that night on the podium, and he reminded everybody that the real rivalry was between Nelson Rockefeller and Richard Nixon and not between him and Richard Nixon.

That's a somewhat light-hearted way of looking at this. But Tim brings up the real possibility that Hillary Clinton's remarks can be used as a sledgehammer against Barack, should he end up being the nominee.

BROKAW: Well, I think what occurs in February and March, does it have legs all the way in September and October? I think that a lot of it depends on how the Democrats resolve their very acute differences that they have on the campaign trail right now.

Obviously these two candidates have distinctive ideas about who is better qualified to be the president. On the details, however, of policy they are a lot closer than the fireworks would indicate at this time.

I think a whole lot of it depends, Chris, on how they conduct themselves, not just in the next seven weeks through Pennsylvania if it goes that far, but what happens after that and whether they can, in effect, have a political embrace saying look, we're all in this together. The larger object here is to win in November and recapture the White House. And if Barack Obama is the nominee, does Hillary Clinton raise his hand at the convention and say, we've had our differences, but I'm with him and I'm for him as our next president of the United States, you can put that scenario.

I think a lot of it depends not on our conjecture here tonight, but how they conduct themselves in the next seven weeks and beyond, and stitch together, again, the party.


You know, the life span of a lot of these charges can be pretty short indeed. So, we've got a long way to go before we hit September 1st and the campaign. I talked to Jim Baker about what it was like when he was running George Bush 41's campaign. Michael Dukakis coming out of Atlanta. They were down 18 points and on a camping trip in August and they went on to win that election.

OLBERMANN: All right Tom, I guess we're going to have to wait until later to get more information on the 50 super delegates which may have been responded to by the Clinton campaign and another report that's out there tonight. But as you see, Mike Huckabee has taken the stage at Dallas at which point he is expected to end his pursuit of the Republican nomination, which is now mathematically John McCain's. Here is Governor Huckabee.

GOV. MIKE HUCKABEE (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: And his career for the Kansas

City Royals he was asked when he was nearing the end of his career, how he

wanted his last play in the major leagues to go. Everyone assumed he would say

that he wanted to hit a grand slam in the bottom of the ninth to win a game,

perhaps even a World Series. He surprised all of the sports writers because

what he said was, "I want my last play at bat to be that I hit an easy just one

bounce to the second baseman, and they throw me out at first. But I was

running as hard as I could toward the bag when they got me." And he

said, "Because I wanted to be said of George Brett that no matter what, he

played his best game, he gave it his best, all the way to the very end." And


he certainly did just that.

Ladies and gentlemen, I called Senator McCain a few moments ago. It looks pretty apparent tonight that he will in fact achieve 1,191 delegates to become the Republican nominee for our party. I extended to him not only my congratulations but my commitment to him and to the party to do everything possible to unite our party, but more importantly to unite our country, so that we could be the best nation we can be.

Not for ourselves, but for the future generations to whom we owe everything just as we owe previous generations all that they have done for us. Senator McCain has run an honorable campaign because he's an honorable man. One of the things I'm proudest of is that the two campaigns that I believe have been run in the most civil manner of the two in the Republican Party that lasted on their feet to the final.

And I'm grateful for the manner in which he has conducted his campaign, and quite frankly, with your great help, I'm very proud of the way that you have insisted that we conduct our campaign. And it's been one that we will always be able to say was done with honor.

It's now important that we turn our attention not to what could have been or what we wanted to have been, but what now must be and that is a united party, but a party that indeed comes together on those principles that have brought many of us, not just to this race, but to politics in general. I have so many people to thank, starting with this lady here to my right, who I still believe.

OLBERMANN: We once again are interrupting Senator Huckabee, Governor Huckabee rather to give you an update from the Democratic the call in Rhode Island. NBC News projects Hillary Clinton to win the Democratic primary in Rhode Island, those are the hard numbers in front of you at the moment, 53-46. The projection obviously cannot be characterized at this point. It's a question of to what degree Obama has cut into a huge expected Hillary Clinton lead there. There is the projection. Let's rejoin the concession speech of Governor Mike Huckabee.

HUCKABEE: My family didn't have to be persuaded or begged to give their permission and blessing for me to get involved in this campaign. In fact, they were ready for me to do it before I was. Truth is, I was the hold-out, they weren't. And what a wonderful, magnificent gift they have given me with their loyalty and their dedication, involving themselves with their sleeves rolled up every single day of this effort, giving 110 percent of themselves. Ad for that, I will always be grateful.

I also want to say I've had the best staff that anybody's had running for president. And by the way, I'm pretty sure it's probably the smallest staff that anybody's ever had running for president. Imagine trying to do this with about 30 people. I don't think it's ever been attempted. No one's gotten this far with such limited resources. But the fact is, what we've been able to do was to ask of every one of our staff that they work as if they were two or three people. And they worked as if they were four. And I want to say thanks to them, every last one of them.

I'm also mindful that the real story of this campaign is going to be in the faces of those of you who are here and the literally millions of faces across this country of people who never made the headlines, never led the 6:00 news but who have been the backbone, the heart and soul of our campaign. The apostle Paul wrote that I fought the good fight, I've finished the race and I've kept the faith. I believe tonight that one of the things that we will be able to say is not only that we fought the good fight and finished the race, we'd like to have finished it first, but we stayed in until the race was over.

But I think more importantly we kept the faith. And that for me has been the most important goal of all. I'd rather lose an election than lose the principles that got me into politics in the first place. We started this effort with very little recognition and virtually no resources. We ended with slightly more recognition and very few resources. What a journey, what a journey, a journey of a lifetime. It is not lost on me where I started. The prophet Isaiah said and I quoted it often, look to the rock from which you were cut, the quarry from which you were dug. I know of the earth from which I have come humble circumstances of the son of a firefighter and who worked a second job, barely paying the rent on the rent house in Hope, Arkansas where we lived.

A mother who was oldest of seven kids, grew up in a house, dirt floors, outdoor toilets, no electricity when she was little. Parents who like so many across this country wanted for their kids to have a better life. I don't think they could have ever imagined that that better life would have included running for president and getting this close to getting there.

Let me say while many of the establishment never really believed I belonged, there were a lot of people in this country who did. And most importantly, these are the people across this nation who gave me a voice over these past 14 months. It was their sacrifices, the sacrifices of a truck driver in Michigan, of a housewife who sold her wedding ring on eBay and gave the contribution to the campaign. A janitor in Alabama who has a wife in a wheelchair who gave $20 not out of his abundance but out of his poverty so that our campaign could stay on the track.


Those are the folks who have given me a voice, and I only pray to God that I've been able to give them a voice, a voice for the unborn children of this country, a voice for life, a voice for the hard working people who lift heavy things every day, for the rest of us, and who carry food to our tables, who pick up the bags, who make great sacrifices and often work two jobs, for every soldier and sailor and airman who puts on a uniform and keeps us free. For every small business owner who hopes that one day he'll be able to succeed, not having to overcome his toughest competition his own government, and then maybe one day his government would facilitate his business, not complicate it.

For all of the conservatives of this country and party who want less government and want what government they have to be a little more efficient, a little more effective. A little less filled with corruption and a whole lot filled with the kind of confidence that we pay for.

I also believe that there are people out there for whom I hope I've given a voice, and that's the people that believe that we need to really overhaul our tax system and implement the fair tax and get rid of the IRS. And I believe that we've given voice to folks who are single moms and those guys who are out there working two shifts trying to make sure they can just keep the rent paid and put food on the table for their families.

All across this country we've stood at rallies and I have looked into the faces of amazing people who love their country, who cherish their families, who work very hard at their jobs, who worship God and who give sacrificially to others even when it would be very easy for them to keep their time and money totally to themselves.

But they know that's not what made America a great country. It's giving that did. We'll go home tonight and hopefully bring our team together for the transition. We'll be working on doing everything we can to help Senator McCain and to help our party, to help those who run for the Senate and the Congress because there are many battles this year that we need not just to fight, we need to win them for our country's sake and our future's sake.

It's time - it's time for us to hit the reset button. Sometimes when the computer stalls, that's what you do. You hit the reset button. But in doing so, we also recognize the extraordinary privilege that we've had and the amazing people who have been there for the journey. We aren't going away completely. We want to be a part of helping to keep the issues alive that have kept us in this race. And by the way, I know there were many who thought we wouldn't make to the March '07, much less March '08. And we've done so because so many of you worked beyond your capacity and gave in ways I can't even begin to imagine. Neither Janet nor I have the words to say thanks. We can only thank you with, hopefully, our future actions that we will work hard for our country. We will work hard for our party and the nominee, because we love this country and that's why we got in.

And until our country is all that we hope and pray it to be, we won't be able to walk away completely. I've said many times here in Texas that I was inspired by the incredible story of that small group of less than 200 volunteers at the Alamo in San Antonio who took refuge in that church mission, and they saw the incredible armies of Santa Ana start massing against them.

On February 23, 1836, 172 years ago this past week, those armies began a 24-hour onslaught and bombardment. On the 24th day of February, Col. William Barrett Travis wrote the letter from the Alamo that should reign and live in all of our hearts and memories, not just for Texas but for all the world, all who love liberty.

As he said on that incredible occasion, he said the enemy has demanded a surrender at discretion; otherwise the garrisons are to be put to the sword if the fort is taken. He said, "I'll answered the demand with a cannon shot and our flag still waves proudly from walls. I shall never surrender or retreat. I call upon you in the name of liberty, patriotism and everything dear to the American character, to come to our aid with all dispatch. The enemy is receiving enforcements daily and will no doubt increase the 3,000 or 4,000 in four or five days. If this call is neglected, I am determined to sustain myself as long as possible and die like a soldier who never forgets what is due to his own honor and that of his country."

Victory or death. These were people who understood that their battle was not about them. It was about the principles of liberty that they deemed even more important than their own lives. Tonight, I hope that our battle was never about us. It was about our country and its liberty and now we join with Sen. McCain and the rest in our party to continue that battle, to continue that fight, not for who gets elected, but for what we do in maintaining liberty and freedom when we get elected and when our country's flag still waves proudly on the wall.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: You're a great American, Mike.

HUCKABEE: And you're a great American as well. Thank you, folks. God bless you. We love you. And thank you very, very much for going on the journey with us. Thank you.


OLBERMANN: Remember the Alamo. The victory or death allusion towards the end there, seeming to ring a little oddly but Gov. Mike Huckabee making a sincere farewell and paving the way for the official first speech by the now nominee presumptive of the Republican Party, John McCain.

Who would have expected that three months ago, four months ago? He is to speak shortly. Mr. Huckabee was at the pavilion at Dallas across town, at the Fairmont Hotel. Sen. McCain will be speaking shortly having achieved tonight, the necessary number of delegates to lock that up. He is over 1200 right now.

MATTHEWS: Well, as we await John McCain, let's bring in NBC News chief White House correspondent, David Gregory with more. You know, I have to ask you, David, have they assigned liaison between these camps, the Bush camp and the McCain camp?

GREGORY: Yes. There are contacts between senior McCain advisers and the chief of staff at the White House, Josh Bolten and Ed Gillespie, counsel to the president, an old political hand, as you know works also in concert with the McCain campaign. We know for a fact now that John McCain will be at the White House tomorrow for lunch with the president and then there will be an endorsement in the Rose Garden.

So all the trappings, all the choreography of the White House tomorrow for John McCain. He is now declared the future of the Republican Party by this president. A mixed blessing. I talked to sources close to the president who say it's good for John McCain to do this now to get it out of the way. Use Bush where he can, use him judiciously but do that now as a contrast to what's happening on the Democratic side.

MATTHEWS: How does he run as a reformer and a Bushie?

GREGORY: Well, he tries to take the best of both. I mean I think he's - I talked to Democrats actually close to Barack Obama tonight who said look, "We're getting ready to start referring to him as John W. McCain, that there is no distance there. And that the big hug - you remember the big hug in 2004 between Bush and McCain, that sort of played over, literally and figuratively, on the campaign trail. So I think McCain does have to be careful.

But there's a practical aspect to this. John McCain needs an organization now. It was a couple months ago that he was left for dead on the campaign trail. Now, he's the nominee of the party. He needs money. Bush helps him with that. He needs the imprimatur of the current president to be the future of the party. He's going to have that.

He needs unity in the party among social conservatives and as Tim Russert pointed out, in military towns across the country and states with big military installations. He gets all of that with the president that only burnishes his national security credentials. And then needs to, in effect, say to the president, "OK, Mr. President, this is a list of things I need you to do on your own. I need to go do my own thing."

MATTHEWS: Well, the problem is for John McCain is that parties don't get re-elected to the White House during recessions.

GREGORY: Right.

MATTHEWS: It doesn't happen. It hasn't happened. How does he get past that?


GREGORY: I think it's difficult. I don't think there is any question that this is a difficult embrace for John McCain. But it's one that he still has to have and he's got to do it again, try to do it now and then move beyond it and find an appropriate place for this president. And then move beyond him in terms of the economy, move beyond in terms of the future for Iraq and on other issues.

I mean I was just thinking about the picture back in Pittsburgh in 2000, watching John McCain endorse George W. Bush and looking at their faces. I mean these are two different political figures back in 2000. They remain different political figures but the Democrats see one figure. And that's because John McCain has moved very close to Bush on the war and it's what helped him in this primary.

So look, there is no getting around the difficulties that are here and that's why Republicans I'm talking to tonight stress, do it now, create a contrast with the Democrats and then work very hard to create the distance.

And one other point I want to mention - Tom Brokaw mentioned this earlier - one of the things that Bush did so effectively in 2004 is that he effectively created new Republicans. And John McCain hopes to do that in a different way, but if he's up against Barack Obama, he has been very effective at bringing new people into the process as well. It's a completely different political landscape now this year.

OLBERMANN: David, I know this is trivia and very focused but you mentioned the prospect of the Democrats trying to paint the senator as John W. McCain. Given the flap at which McCain got himself into as well about Barack Obama's middle name, is it not probably out of bounds to start throwing in people's middle initials? Have we gotten that politically correct or political necessity to avoid something like that?

GREGORY: Well, I just think it's the overall point and Barack Obama has made it. You know you've seen basically a general election preview, if it goes that way, where Barack Obama has inflicted some wounds potentially against John McCain saying if you want more of George Bush, if you want a third George Bush term, then John McCain is your guy. So yes, I think that's where we're going to be.

I think, however, the motivating effect of calling him John W. McCain or raising that specter is different than bringing up Barack Hussein Obama which is much more loaded. This "W" is politically loaded for sure, but it's a substantive point to make and it's a point that Chris makes which is can an unpopular president be held up as the prospect of a third term.

OLBERMANN: Well, I admit there may be a difference but that difference might be erased by campaigners. We'll see how that turns out.

MATTHEWS: There is something in the strange habit of American journalism that we often reserve the use of the middle name for murderers and especially assassins.

Anyway, we'll be waiting now - we're waiting right now for John McCain's victory speech. But let's check in with "Newsweek's" Howard Fineman who's an MSNBC political analyst, and he's in our campaign listening post right now. And he's got hot stuff on the Clinton campaign.

HOWARD FINEMAN, "NEWSWEEK": Well, what's hot about the Clinton campaign from

the phone calls and E-mails that I've been trafficking in here in the listening


post is the lack of champagne corks and the sense of I would almost say grim

determination that they have. They realize what a tough row to hoe this is,

even if they do pull out some things.

One of the top people in the campaign told me, somewhat to my surprise, that Ohio's not enough. Leave Rhode Island out of the equation. Ohio's not enough. That if it's just Ohio that they can claim, if they do claim Ohio, that it's going to be awfully hard. That Hillary may want to go forward but some people inside the campaign including this person, might not want to do so.

What you're seeing here, Chris, is a lot of rue, a lot of regrets, a lot of recrimination. How come they dug themselves into this hole that they are desperately trying to climb out of? Why wasn't the campaign on the attack months ago? Why wasn't Hillary more personal months ago?

A lot of the criticism focused on Mark Penn, the chief strategist. But the person who really deserves the blame, according to some of the insiders I've talked to, is really Hillary Clinton. Because the way she set up this campaign, she never really put a field man or woman in charge, somebody who really knew how to run field.

And the Obama campaign, quite frankly, has organized circles around them. Only now does the campaign, the Clinton campaign, have truly terrific people in some of these states especially Ace Smith in Texas, to name one example. But they didn't have anybody like that.

So some of the people who are close to Hillary are saying Ohio's not enough, she needs both Ohio and Texas if we, meaning we, Clinton people, are going to feel good about going forward. That even if they feel good, there is no real sense of elation. It's more avoiding a hanging than it is holding a wedding party.

MATTHEWS: Besides the imagery you've used about the hanging part, let me ask you about this numbing possibility. Suppose that at the end of the count tonight - I don't mean the popular vote count; I mean the delegate count. And we looked at all four states at stake tonight. Suppose, and I did think it's possible, at the end of it all, it's a draw. In other words, Obama didn't have a good night. Hillary Clinton had an OK night, but nobody gained in delegates. What happens then? Does Sen. Clinton push ahead or not?

FINEMAN: Well, I think especially if she wins a couple states at least. Say she wins Texas also, we don't know what's going to happen exactly. We know it's going to be close. My sense is that Hillary is going to definitely want to soldier on. I think the party leaders are not going to be able to prevent her from doing so.

I just got off the phone with one of her top supporters in the labor movement -

MATTHEWS: Right.


FINEMAN: Who told me, look, this thing is essentially tied. In terms of popular vote, Obama's ahead by a few hundred thousand votes out of 25 or 27 million cast. In terms of delegates, he's ahead by a few percentage points overall, even though it's more than 150. Nobody has walked away, this guy said. It's nomination fight that's essentially tied. And that's going to be the Clinton psychology.

But what's fascinating to me about it is that there's no joy there, at least that I can detect. There's no sense of excitement. There is a sort of - I hate to keep using the word - grim determination about it. But just because it's grim doesn't mean they won't continue.

MATTHEWS: Well, I know a fellow that roots for the Eagles every Sunday here, Howard, and you know who it is. It's Ed Rendell, the governor of Pennsylvania who has been through some tough afternoons. Gov. Rendell, let me ask you about not the Eagles tonight. They'll have another season next year and they will win everything.

But let me ask you about Pennsylvania. I know you can't say this on television. But, you know, I always like to ask you. Is it in the interest of the Democratic Party you once led for this fight to go seven more weeks through six more media markets through $30 million on both sides?

GOV. ED RENDELL (D), GOVERNOR OF PENNSYLVANIA: It depends, Chris. If Hillary

Clinton wins - she'd won Rhode Island. If she wins Ohio and Texas, I

absolutely believe it's not only correct, it's important. Because let's assume

for the moment Hillary Clinton wins Ohio and Texas. She wins Pennsylvania.

Florida and Michigan have primaries in June, she wins both of those.

Then can the superdelegates look at that and say gosh, she's won the last five big primaries in a row. She's won almost every big primary since we began. These are the states we have to carry and they aren't gimmes. Michigan isn't a gimme. Ohio, certainly isn't a gimme. Pennsylvania was 1.7 percent for John Kerry.

We've got to nominate the candidate who can win the blue states and the purple states. Barack Obama's a great candidate but he's not winning Wyoming. He's not winning Utah. He's not winning Idaho. So I think, yes, we want to have the best candidate, the strongest candidate in the fall. And I think this process will find out and develop who the strongest candidate is.

When you sit down with your pocket calculator, Governor, and look ahead to past Puerto Rico, can you see Sen. Clinton winning a majority of the elected delegates, if she wins Pennsylvania, if gets a new vote in Florida, and wins all the big ones.


RENDELL: Probably not, Chris. But I think if she does all that she'll probably be less than a percentage point behind in delegates. And then the superdelegates do have a role. We always have a role. And I think we should have a role, and that is to determine who, going into the convention, is our strongest candidate for the fall.

And look, if Sen. Barack Obama's the candidate, I'll work my heart out for him. But I think, right now, Hillary Clinton's the best standard-bearer for the states that we have to carry in the fall.

MATTHEWS: Let me ask you about the culture of Pennsylvania. It's a culturally

conservative state. I think one of your predecessors, the great Bob Casey, Sr.

once said that it's a John Wayne state, as you know. It's not a Jane Fonda

state. Given that setup, Jane Fonda, John Wayne, which one is which, Hillary

or Obama? Give them their slots

RENDELL: Well, I don't think either is either. I think both have a little John Wayne, both have a little Jane Fonda to be honest. But this is great state for Hillary. Number one, in the northeast section which is a vote rich section for Democrats, it's her hometown. She is beloved in the Scranton and greater Scranton area. In the southeast, Hillary Clinton probably spent more time in southeast Pennsylvania during Bill Clinton's presidency than any first lady.

Bill Clinton probably did more to help the turn around of Philadelphia and our region than anybody else. In western Pennsylvania, I think she'll do very, very well in western Pennsylvania and Erie and the Pittsburgh and Allegheny County area. It's the second oldest state in the union behind Florida. That's a great demographic for her. I think if she wins Texas and Ohio, she will go on and I think she'll win Pennsylvania by a solid vote.

MATTHEWS: Last question, organization. You've got the governor, you've got Chris Doherty(ph) up in Scranton who is with you. You've got Tommy Leonard, our buddy, down in Philly. You've got Mayor Nutter down in Philly. Are you going to be able to get a party endorsement from Bob Grady's organization in Philadelphia? In other words, will you be able to put the full imprimatur behind Sen. Clinton if this goes to a fight, April 22nd?

RENDELL: No, I wouldn't do that. I don't think Bob would ask for that and neither would I. Because we've got to respect our African-American ward leaders and we want to be together in the fall regardless. And I don't think we should try to force an endorsement of Hillary Clinton. It doesn't matter. Each ward leader, you know, they do their own thing, regardless -

(CROSS TALK)


MATTHEWS: They've been known to cut candidates occasionally.

RENDELL: Absolutely. I wouldn't force that. Look -

MATTHEWS: This is the greatest thing in history, by the way. I've been fighting seven weeks of bloodthirsty - fighting between two great Democrats, but in a way, in terms of great political love. Look at you. Yes, I know you're looking forward to seven weeks of thunder through Pennsylvania. What a fight. Thank you very much, Gov. Ed Rendell for joining us tonight.

RENDELL: See you, Chris. We're looking forward to seeing you on Thursday.

MATTHEWS: How many nickels I can get to rub together get up there?

RENDELL: See you.

OLBERMANN: All right. Ohio and Texas still too close to call among the Democrats. One thing the governor just said that might be of most interest, assuming we have primaries in Florida and Michigan in June. There are no more primaries to watch in the Republican campaign. John McCain now the presumptive nominee of the Republican Party. He is about to speak to his group at the Fairmount Hotel in Dallas, after tonight, clearing that 1200-delegate total that mathematically cinches the Republican nomination for John McCain whose career path at this point, is as exceptional and as unusual as any American politician. Might rival some of the great stories in pure rebound effect and having been written off as a political figure. As perhaps Winston Churchill, not to make undue comparisons, but talking about people who were written off prematurely in terms of their roles in their political systems. Here is John McCain, the presumptive nominee of the Republican Party for 2008.

SEN. JOHN MCCAIN (R-AZ), PRESUMPTIVE PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE OF THE REPUBLICAN

PARTY: Thank you. Thank you, Texas, Ohio, Vermont, and Rhode Island. Thank

you. I am very grateful for the broad support you have given our campaign. And

I am very, very grateful and pleased to note that tonight, my friends, we have

won enough delegates to claim with confidence, humility, and a great sense of


responsibility, that I will be the Republican nominee for president of the

United States.

(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)

I want to thank all of you here, all the Republicans, independents, and independent-thinking Democrats in all parts of the country who supported our campaign for the nomination and have brought us across the finish line first, an accomplishment that once seemed to more than a few doubters unlikely.

My friends, I know that all of us, all of us want to, again, commend my friend, Gov. Mike Huckabee. He is a great and fine and decent American and we appreciate - appreciate -

(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)

We appreciate the campaign he ran, his supporters for their passionate commitment to their campaign that Gov. Huckabee so ably represented. And I also want to thank all of my former rivals for the nomination and their supporters for their steadfast dedication to keeping America safe, prosperous, and proud.

Of course, I want to thank my family, my wife Cindy, my children,

(CHEERS AND APPLAUSE)

And our dear friends who have been throughout this campaign and will remain in

the challenging months ahead, an unwavering source of support and love.

My friends, now we begin the most important part of our campaign. To make a respectful, determined, and convincing case to the American people that our campaign and my election as president given the alternatives presented by our friends in the other party, are in the best interests of the country we love.


(CHEERS AND APPLAUSE)

I have never believed that I was destined to be president. I don't believe anyone is predestined to lead America. But I do believe that we were born with responsibilities to the country that has protected our God-given rights and the opportunities they afford us.

I didn't grow up with the expectation that my country owed me more than the rights owed every American. On the contrary, I owe my country every opportunity I have ever had. I owe her the meaning that service to America has given my life, and in the sense that I'm part of something greater than myself, part of a kinship of ideals that have always represented the last best hope of mankind.

I understand the responsibilities I incur with this nomination. And I give you my word, I will not evade or slight a single one. Our campaign must be and will be more than another tired debate of false promises, empty sound bites or useless arguments from the past that address not a single of America's concerns for their family's security.

My friends, presidential candidates are judged on their record, their character, and the whole of their life experiences. But we're also expected to concentrate our efforts on the challenges that will confront America on our watch and explain how we intend to address them.

As you well know, America is at war in two countries and involved in a long and difficult fight with violent extremists who despise us, our values and modernity itself. It is of little use for Americans for their candidates to avoid the many complex challenges of these struggles by re-litigating decisions of the past.

I will defend the decision to destroy Saddam Hussein's regime as I -

(CHEERS AND APPLAUSE)

As I also criticized the fail tactics that were employed for too long to establish the conditions that will allow us to leave that country with our country's interests secure and our honor intact.

(CHEERS AND APPLAUSE)

But Americans know that the next president doesn't get to remake that decision. We're in Iraq. And our most vital security interests are clearly involved there. The next president must explain how he or she intends to bring that war to the swiftest possible conclusion without exacerbating a sectarian conflict that could quickly descend into genocide, destabilizing the entire middle east, and enabling our adversaries in the region to extend their influence and undermine our security there, and emboldening terrorists to attack us elsewhere with weapons we dare not allow them to possess.

The next president of the United States must encourage the greater participation and cooperation of our allies in the fight against Al-Qaeda and the Taliban in Afghanistan. He must do that.


(CHEERS AND APPLAUSE)

The next president must lead an effort to restructure our military, our intelligence, our diplomacy, in all relevant branches of government to combat Islamic extremism, encourage the majority of moderates to win the battle for the soul of Islam and meet the many other rising challenges in this changing world.

My friends, I'll leave it to my opponents to argue that we should abrogate trade treaties and pretend the global economy will go away and Americans can secure our future by trading and investing only among ourselves. We will campaign in favor of seizing the opportunities presented by the growth of free markets throughout the world, helping displaced workers acquire new and lasting employment, and educating our children to prepare them for the new economic realities by giving parents choices about their children's education that they do not have now.

(CHEERS AND APPLAUSE)

I'll leave it to my opponent to claim that they can keep jobs and companies from going overseas by making it harder for them to do business here at home. We will campaign to strengthen job growth in America by helping businesses become more competitive with lower taxes and less regulation.

I will leave it to my opponent to propose returning to the failed big government mandates of the '60s and '70s to address problems such as the lack of healthcare insurance for some Americans. I will campaign to make healthcare more accessible to more Americans with reforms that will bring down costs in the healthcare industry without ruining the quality of the world's best medical care.

(CHEERS AND APPLAUSE)

And I will campaign to reduce our dangerous dependence on foreign oil with an energy policy that encourages American industry and technology to make our country safer, cleaner, and more prosperous by leading the world in the use, development, and discovery of alternative sources of energy.

(CHEERS AND APPLAUSE)

My friends, these are some of the challenges that confront us. There are others just as urgent. And during this campaign, I will travel across the country in cities and rural areas, in communities of all ethnic backgrounds and income levels offering my ideas and listening, listening to the concerns and advice of Americans. Americans aren't interested in an election where they are just talked to and not listened to. An election -

(CHEERS AND APPLAUSE)

An election that offers platitudes instead of principals and insults instead of ideas, an election results in no matter who wins in four years of unkept promises and a government that's just a battleground for the next election.


My friends, the American people's patience is at an end for politicians who value ambition over principle and for partisanship that is less than a contest of ideas than an uncivil brawl over the spoils of power. My friends -

(CHEERS AND APPLAUSE)

My friends, nothing, nothing, nothing is inevitable in America. We are the captains of our fate. We are not a country that prefers nostalgia to optimism, a country that would rather go back than forward. We are the world's leader, and leaders don't pine for the past and dread the future. We make the future better than the past. We don't hide from history. We make history.

(CHEERS AND APPLAUSE)

(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)

That, my friends, is the essence of hope in America, hope built on courage and faith and the values and principles that have made us great. I intend to make my stand on those principles and chart a course for our future greatness and trust, and trust in the judgment of the people I have served all my life.

(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)

So stand up with me, my friend, stand up and fight for America, for her strength, her ideals, and her future. The contest begins tonight.

(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)

MCCAIN: As you know, like all campaigns, it will have its ups and downs, but we will fight every minute of every day to make certain that we have a government that is as capable, wise, brave, and decent as the great people we serve. That's our responsibility. And I won't let you down.

Thank you, and God bless you. And God bless America. Thank you.

(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)


KEITH OLBERMANN, MSNBC ANCHOR: Senator John McCain, now the nominee presumptive of the Republican Party, surviving prompter failure during his speech at Dallas tonight, saying he never felt himself destined to be president, though he has sought the job for at least a decade or so.

Saying his opponent should abrogate trade treaties which probably was a veiled reference not to CAFTA but to NAFTA. And re-pricing Iraq. The next president must explain, said Senator McCain, how he or she intends to bring that war to the swiftest possible conclusion without exacerbating a sectarian conflict that could quickly descend into genocide.

So we are down from 100 years to whatever that means. Also, one other note about this, before that speech, John McCain got a congratulatory phone call from Senator Barack Obama, who said he's looking forward to running against him.

CHRIS MATTHEWS, MSNBC ANCHOR: Right. And I think that was a big repositioning on the war issue from being identified with a 100-year war proposition to beings one who is daring the Democrats to match him, to bring the troops after victory as quickly as possible. Tim Russert is NBC's Washington bureau chief, and of course, moderator of "MEET THE PRESS."

Tim, I was just thinking that throughout the history of the conservative parties in this country, whether they be called the Whigs or the Republicans, when in trouble, they have gone to a military man, whether it's Ike or it's William Henry Harrison or Zachary Taylor, or General Grant, of course, and here we have John McCain, very much a martial man, not running as a politician, but a man who is a standup soldier for his country it seems.

TIM RUSSERT, NBC NEWS WASHINGTON BUREAU CHIEF: I thought he was most

energized when he used the phrase fight, fight for America. John McCain loves

a good fight. And there is no doubt he is going to be a very combative

candidate. Try to keep the campaign civil but he will be combative.

I heard your discussion with Keith earlier on about "John W. McCain," guys. Thank - for BlackBerrys. I sent to a few Democrats saying, are you really going to do the "John W. McCain" in light of the middle name controversy? And the response came back, OK, fine, it will be the "Bush-McCain war," the "Bush-McCain recession," the "Bush-McCain economy."

So it's very clear the Democratic strategy is to tie John McCain so tightly to George W. Bush. And I think the idea of the recession in economy is so important. As one of the Democratic operatives said, don't overcomplicate this, this is the third term of a Republican administration in the middle of a recession. Keep it simple. Keep it focused.

And I think while we heard a lot from John McCain about national security tonight, we didn't hear much about the economy. And finally, John McCain talking about trade agreements and abrogating them, Ohio is a very battleground state, as we well know from 2004. And NAFTA and trade is a very serious issue in that state. And if John McCain is going to go into that state as an unabashed free trader, I think it would give the Democrats a real opportunity to have that debate in that state that they did not have in 2004 and 2000.


OLBERMANN: And that number in the exit polls - excuse me, Chris. That number in the exit polls, Tim, was astounding that NAFTA takes way more jobs, was the choice, takes away or adds jobs, and in Ohio, it was 81 to 8, 81 to 8 in favor of NAFTA taking jobs away in the opinion of those who voted in the primary in Ohio tonight.

I mean, who could you not run against somebody who supported and defended NAFTA under those circumstances and prevail?

RUSSERT: And a third of those voters in that primary, Keith, were independents and Republican. That's a very important point and you have to underscore that. Also, keep thinking, economy, recession, third Republican term. Based on what I'm hearing from the Democrats tonight, they see it as a real vulnerability with John McCain.

MATTHEWS: Let me ask you about the blue-red state - the divide that you and I talk about. You especially, with regard to the key states to look at. If you look at the latest word from the McCain camp, they are basically looking at a new look at California and hoping to put it in play. Maine, of course, Connecticut, New Jersey, I think also Pennsylvania, if the Democrats can't get their act together, certainly Ohio.

Where do you see the opportunity for McCain to pull back from history? He said we make history, we don't live with it, or whatever. Making history would mean breaking with the curve of events. People want change. McCain says, OK, I'll give you a certain amount of change, but mainly I'm going to give you something close to the center. How does he do it state by state?

MATTHEWS: Well, the Republicans have talked with the McCain candidacy the potential of Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa. They see a lot of those Midwest states that had been drifting away from the Republicans, moving back to a more mainstream moderate Republican. Now that John McCain has won the nomination, we can use those terms.

They see those states in play. California, still difficult, no doubt about it. On the other hand, Chris, the Democrats see states like Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, they had hoped Arizona, but with McCain's candidacy, that's gone. But they see those Rocky Mountain states back in play.

MATTHEWS: So you are sticking with the Southwest. I have heard this theory, Tim, months ago you had this. You are sticking to the theory. It's not Florida. It's not Ohio. I love studying your pattern. It is the Southwest states still.

RUSSERT: Yes. But I think Ohio tonight, hearing Senator McCain on trade, I think that provides a real opportunity.

MATTHEWS: OK. Thank you - Keith.

OLBERMANN: Tim, before we let you go, give us a little perspective here as we switch back to the Democrats. Because as first Mr. Huckabee and then Mr. McCain spoke, nothing changed in our too-close-to-call states. You mentioned the Southwest, Texas, Ohio, what are you hearing?

RUSSERT: The models keep this show then too close to call. We are looking at the early vote in from Texas. How that's dividing. Still waiting for Harris County, Houston to come in because that should be big Obama country. It's so important to find out who exactly voted. How big is this turnout and where it's coming from.


I listened to Governor Rendell's interview with Chris very carefully. And he kept saying if Hillary Clinton wins Rhode Island, Ohio, and Texas, he kept saying all three, and then, as you pointed out, he tacked in there these are new primaries, the do-overs of Michigan and Florida in June. But he seemed to continue with that predicate that she had to win all three to continue out of tonight.

And I think obviously in a few hours we should have a pretty good sense as to whether she achieved that.

OLBERMANN: Well, just don't stand too close to the goal posts.

(LAUGHTER)

OLBERMANN: They move rather frequently in the Democratic campaign. Tim Russert, thank you, we will check back with you shortly, I'm sure. And for more on that twofold process in Texas which requires a refresher course every hour, certainly, let's check back in with Lester Holt who is at a caucus site at a Houston elementary school.

Lester, good evening again.

LESTER HOLT, MSNBC CORRESPONDENT: Keith, good evening to you.

Remember, a third of the delegates are rewarded through the caucus process.

Only people who voted in the primary could caucus tonight. I wish you could

have seen what we witnessed in this room about an hour ago, almost 400 people

here, they signed in their preference and then everybody waited while on the

stage a group of people were sitting with pads and calculators. It was


politics at its most raw as they were adding up the votes and then doing the

math, trying to find the delegate.

In this one precinct, a heavily Democratic precinct, we can tell you that in the caucus voting tonight, it was 222 for Obama, 168 for Hillary Clinton. That broke down to 45 delegates that were awarded to this precinct, it was 26 Obama, 19 Hillary.

Now it's interesting to note that a total of 961 people from this precinct voted in the primary, most of them early. Another 600 voted in person here today. So they only got about 40 percent of those people who came back and took part in this caucusing process. And that's why it was so important for these candidates to do well in the caucus, that two-step. If you want to win in Texas, you need to do well in both. It's possible to win the popular vote but then lose here in the caucus.

We've got one of the caucus attendees tonight. Your name is...

TONY HALAT, CLINTON SUPPORTER: Tony Halat.

HOLT: Tony Halat. This is your first, like most people in this room...

HALAT: Yes.

HOLT:... this was your first caucus.

HALAT: Yes. I had never been to a caucus.

HOLT: Describe the experience.

HALAT: It was really exciting to be here on the ground floor of this process and to see everybody so passionate and you know, lots of words back and forth. But in the end the votes were counted up. Everything was fair and I think that the people have spoken.


HOLT: You are a Hillary Clinton supporter...

HALAT: Correct.

HOLT:... who came here tonight.

HALAT: Yes, we would like to have seen a few more delegates for Hillary, but you know, she did pretty well.

HOLT: Boy, a lot of people, I just noted, a lot of people who voted in the primary did not show up tonight for both sides. So it was a big part of it.

HALAT: Yes. Although I think probably in the past it was the much lower percentage of people who came out to caucus.

HOLT: In fact, I can tell you, I was told in this precinct four years ago they figured at tops they would get 45 people. Tonight I think the total was 391 people. So do you feel better about the process, at least?

HALAT: Yes, I feel really good.

HOLT: All right. Well, sorry your candidate didn't win in this precinct. We are still waiting to find out what happens across Texas. So we will wait and watch with the rest with everyone.

But, Keith, what a fascinating thing to watch here, because so much of politics, you think of machines and these big organizations. This was just the raw stuff. Neighbors, people who may know each other, have seen each other in the streets crowding into a cafeteria at an elementary school writing down their preference and then watching their vote or their reference count right there on a piece of paper and a calculator and then the announcement of how it broke here.

But obviously everyone still waiting to find out how their candidates do in the state of Texas overall. Back to you.

OLBERMANN: A rare remaining component from the original idea of democracy, a show of hands and just write it down. Lester Holt at one of the Texas caucuses. Thank you, Lester.


MATTHEWS: Let's go now and get an update from the Clinton campaign.

NBC's Andrea Mitchell was with the campaign in Columbus, Ohio.

Andrea, where is that confetti?

ANDREA MITCHELL, NBC CHIEF FOREIGN AFFAIRS CORRESPONDENT: They do not

have the results yet, as you don't. And they are already challenging - on a

conference call with all of us, challenging what's going on with those

caucuses, especially in Harris County, that is, as Lester and you all were

talking about, and Tim Russert earlier. That's the Houston area, Obama

stronghold of Texas.

They are claiming that they may have legal challenges because precinct captains for Obama locked out Clinton supporters who were in line and couldn't get in and that there were other irregularities. And interestingly, in the middle of this conference call - as you know, Chris, this goes on every day, they have these conference calls. Bob Bauer, a lawyer for Obama joined on the conference call and got into an argument with Howard Wolfson.

So it just tells you how tough this hand to hand combat is as the Clinton people seem to be already trying to lay the predicate for discounting the Texas results. As you know, they have always criticized caucuses in this round and now again already saying that there might be something wrong with what's going on in Texas - Chris.

MATTHEWS: We just heard Governor Rendell. And Tim point this out, that Governor Rendell said that Senator Clinton needs to win three tonight. She has already lost Vermont. She has won Rhode Islands, two in play, Ohio and Texas. The governor says she has to win three. Does this mean that they can gainsay that by denying the relevance of the results from Texas?


MITCHELL: Oh, Chris, you're - you've got such a sneaky mind. Actually, that is exactly what they are doing. You know, Ed Rendell told me that the other day. And he is sticking to it. He discussed it with Bill Clinton last Thursday morning when they met in Philadelphia. We talked about it last night, you and I, on "HARDBALL." And he is not wavering even though clearly she and others are trying - she, Hillary Clinton, and others are trying to move the goal post.

But what the Clinton campaign, I think, will do if they don't win Texas is say that it was stolen from them and still say that they can go ahead despite support from pressure from Ed Rendell, Bill Richardson, and other superdelegates.

MATTHEWS: We was robbed. Anyway, thank you, Andrea Mitchell, with the Clinton campaign in Ohio - actually, in Cleveland. Let's go right now to Obama headquarters in San Antonio with NBC's Lee Cowan.

Are they optimistic there about Texas or where are their heads right now?

LEE COWAN, NBC CORRESPONDENT: I think it's fair to say that they are cautious about it. I think they knew it was going to be close. They have been saying for the past several days...

(AUDIO GAP)

COWAN:... I don't think they quite expected it to be this close. But I

think no matter...

(AUDIO GAP)

COWAN:... I think that they...

MATTHEWS: We are getting some problems there. Keith - well, let's go to Joe Scarborough and the panel. I just saw the sign. There we go.

Hey, Joe.


JOE SCARBOROUGH, HOST, "MORNING JOE": All right. Very good. Thank you so much. So I heard Howard Fineman earlier say tonight that there's no champagne in the Clinton headquarters, but you look at these poll numbers, these results that are coming out. Ohio with about a third of the vote in, she is trouncing Barack Obama. In Texas, after going ahead with an early vote, Hillary Clinton is cutting that lead. It looks like the wind is still at Hillary's back.

RACHEL MADDOW, MSNBC POLITICAL ANALYST: Still at end - all she has got so far is Rhode Island. Barack Obama has got Vermont. It still remains to be seen. But the thing they are going to have to grapple with is the thing that we talked about the very top of the coverage tonight, which is that wasn't very long ago when Bill Clinton said if she doesn't get Texas and Ohio, this thing is over.

If that calculus has changed, they are going to have to come up with an explanation for why that calculus is wrong.

SCARBOROUGH: But you know what strikes me, though, is, I have heard on a lot of the networks, I've heard - I've read on the blogs, it all seems negative about Hillary Clinton and yet, tonight, she could carry off a big victory. And we are still hearing spin about champagne bottles and a grimace - what did Howard say? A grim determination or something like that.

EUGENE ROBINSON, THE WASHINGTON POST: Well, that's how he is reporting it, but I don't think I would pop any champagne until Cuyahoga County came in in Ohio, until Harris County, which is Houston, came in in Texas. And there is essentially only early voting so far in Houston.

I mean, there's just no results from today have been counted at all. That is likely to be very big for Obama. So, you know, I mean, let's see how the evening goes before we pop the corks.

SCARBOROUGH: Well, and I'm not saying we need to do that. All I'm saying, though, Pat Buchanan, is there seems to be an attempt to bury - and not by Howard Fineman, but by a lot of people to go ahead and write the obituary. A lot of columnists have been saying drop out of the race, drop out of the race.

She could - if you look at the trends, she could win three of four states.

PAT BUCHANAN, MSNBC POLITICAL ANALYST: She could. She has got to do

much better in Texas. But I do agree with you. I think there's a repudiation

and a rejection of Obama if these returns hold in Ohio and if, in fact, her

attack ads and the phone call ads...


SCARBOROUGH: It's a 20-point lead in Ohio right now.

BUCHANAN: And the phone call ad, if these things worked in Ohio, as we have talked, after primary after primary, Obama is getting votes like 90 percent of the African-American votes, the professoriate and the intellectuals, and the kids, he's getting all of that, Republicans don't get that.

MADDOW: I don't understand how Missouri is the professoriate. You know? How Missouri and Georgia and Virginia and all of these places. You attempt to pigeonhole and stereotype people who are supporting him, and it gets ridiculous when you have to wrap Utah and Illinois into the same stereotype.

BUCHANAN: It may be ridiculous, but let me tell you, if you're talking about the white ethnic blue collar voters, men and women who went 55, 56 percent for Hillary, that is Reagan Democrats. Republicans, and McCain especially, war hero, military, he can win them if he gets off this NAFTA thing, because that's the killer in Ohio.

SCARBOROUGH: Then the question is...

ROBINSON: He is not going to get off of that, is he?

MADDOW: He is not going to get off of that.

(CROSSTALK)

MADDOW:... himself as never moving on it.

SCARBOROUGH: In the end, does this come down to the fact that Barack Obama needs to prove that he can close the sale, that he can do it tonight? If Hillary wins Texas, Ohio, Rhode Island, does he fail at closing that sale once again like he did in New Hampshire and California?

ROBINSON: Well, I think the campaign will be disappointed if he doesn't win one of the big states. Because if winning one of the big states, the Obama campaign believes, would essentially seal the deal, would make the point that he is trying to make.

What you will hear from the campaign is, yes, but we have either got more delegates or we have got parity in delegates or whatever, and that likely would be true. So we would go on to the next week.


But you know, you would say they would have to be disappointed if they don't win one of those big states.

SCARBOROUGH: Well, and again, and...

BUCHANAN: If you don't win one of the big states, the souffle falls, Joe.

SCARBOROUGH: Well, I don't know that the souffle falls, because the chef still has the most butter in the pantry, and that would be Barack Obama, regardless.

BUCHANAN: Have you ever seen it rise a second time?

(LAUGHTER)

SCARBOROUGH: You know what, I don't watch the Food Network enough to follow you here, Buchanan, but anyway, that 3:00 a.m. ad may have worked in Texas, we shall see as the night goes on. But results still not in (INAUDIBLE) from there.

Now back to Keith and Chris.

OLBERMANN: Anthony Bourdain in the panel, great thanks. One other note here, signs in Columbus, Ohio. There's a handwritten sign at Clinton headquarters there that reads "meet me in Indiana." Indiana's Democratic primary is May 6th. We are going to need some more chairs and some more water.

Coming up, both Texas and Ohio still too close to call among the Democrats. Take a closer look at what's going on in both states. NBC News political director Chuck Todd by the numbers.

Plus, NBC's Brian Williams joins us. MSNBC's DECISION 2008 coverage continues after this.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)


OLBERMANN: Ohio and Texas, too close to call on the Democratic side tonight. In fact, a report from Cuyahoga County, that is the Cleveland area, that it will not be fully counted until, wait for it, 4:30 a.m. Eastern time. That doesn't mean we won't know what will have happened before 4:30, but the final count will not be in from the Ohio Department of State because of delays there both of the lack of votes - ballots, actual ballots, and also weather delays because of the bad rains and flooding in the Ohio area.

Now, twice previously when we have discussed why these races are too close to call, with our NBC News political director Chuck Todd, who is standing up there with a map.

Twice before, while we have done this, suddenly it wasn't too close to call and apparently we are trying to wrap this up early or something. So try to answer the question before the bell goes off.

CHUCK TODD, NBC NEWS POLITICAL DIRECTOR: All right. I will start talking fast now. But let me show you why things are still too close to call in Ohio. Everybody has seen this big lead for Clinton. She's 40 percent reporting. However, here's what's not reported. We've got zero percent in Hamilton County, that's Cincinnati. We have got almost zero percent in Montgomery, that state. And we've got about 1 percent reporting in Toledo. And of course, you broke the news on Cuyahoga County, we've got very little, a trickle, about 2 percent reporting in Cuyahoga County.

So when you look at four of the largest cities in the state where you have less than 5 percent reporting, you're not going to be comfortable calling it anything other than too close to call when you want to see these numbers. Particularly, these are places, Cincinnati and Cleveland in particular, where Obama believes he was going to do very well where there are large African-American populations. And we still have no numbers from that.

By the way, interesting to note in Franklin County and Columbus right now, Obama is winning Franklin County. This is - (INAUDIBLE) mild surprise, this was supposed to be pretty much a 50/50 county. So far it looks like Obama is doing very well there. But she is - Clinton is cleaning up in these rural counties. And that's what has been reporting first. So keep that in mind.

As for Texas, get our friend up here. What we are seeing is almost all early vote. When you look - and it is actually great, the Texas secretary of state site is very good about splitting up what early vote is in. Basically, all of the early vote is reported except for one important metropolitan area, and that is Houston, Harris County.

When all of the other early vote being reported has Clinton with about a 4,000-vote lead just among that early vote, which appears apparently is going to make up somewhere between 25 and 35 percent of the vote.

But you throw in Harris County, and it is likely to have - Obama is going to have some sort of boost there. We just don't from have that - numbers yet. They don't have those reports.

A few other things to remember about Texas, Obama's vote is actually likely to be counted earlier, unlike Ohio where Obama's votes are going to come in late. In Texas, Obama's votes are going to come in early. It's going to be some of the Hillary Clinton's vote that can trickle in late. As someone who has watched a lot of House races and a lot of long-delayed counts, particularly in that old Henry Bonilla seat - he is no longer there, but in the 23rd congressional seat down there on the border over here, you can wait a very long time for some of those border counties.

So it could be a very long night in Texas waiting for some Hillary Clinton vote and a very long night in Ohio waiting for some Barack Obama vote.

OLBERMANN: So you are expecting perhaps in Texas a jump up in Obama initially as the - tonight's votes start getting counting and then it perhaps leveling off?


TODD: You should see some ebb and flow. It wouldn't be surprising to see Obama have early spurts when the count comes and early bursts where his number pops up where - and then Clinton catching up as the number - as the night wears on, and almost the opposite effect in Ohio.

OLBERMANN: All right. So nothing in Cincinnati, nothing in Dayton. Toledo, 1 percent. Cleveland - oh, wait a minute, Chuck, I'm just getting a message here. No, they are both still too close to call.

TODD: Funny guy.

OLBERMANN: I just had to do it.

TODD: Funny guy.

OLBERMANN: NBC and MSNBC political director Chuck Todd. Thanks, Chuck.

TODD: All right, pal.

OLBERMANN: Still a very strange angle to be interviewing anybody at. A more direct path looking down the hallway, let's turn to the anchor of "NBC NIGHTLY NEWS,: Brian Williams for perspective on what we have seen tonight.

I guess that's the overall perspective, obviously the Republicans are done, everything else is fasten your seatbelts.

BRIAN WILLIAMS, NBC ANCHOR: And better perspective than that view you have of Chuck Todd, I'm sorry for you both. It's like a little mini Hyatt Regency balcony there. And it's not pretty. I've been down where you are looking up at Chuck. No offense to Chuck.

And by the way, we should lay out the layout here. You are behind me

through this shielded - hi there. You are through this glass window. I get


to see more of Rachel Maddow every night than she would ever in her wildest

dreams know. And she drinks a lot, that's all I'm going to say. So we have...

(LAUGHTER)

WILLIAMS:... back through this - it's a liquid. That's all I know. And Gene is always well behaved. But it's - there she is. OK, I know, paybacks. So it's this long corridor, and we are back here while you are on the air all night, Keith. We are doing - I guess tonight we did five straight live feeds of "NIGHTLY NEWS" going across the time zones.

So what a strange view of politics in America it gave us. You know, we have got to say the John McCain campaign, left for dead on the side of the road a few months ago. There was speculation that he couldn't continue to keep his bus running, absolutely amazing. Interesting speech tonight by Huckabee, and this long night that a lot of people didn't see coming in both Ohio and Texas.

So we are following this story along with you and the Chuck Todd rule has been broken. It stopped at two, right?

OLBERMANN: Yes. That doesn't mean we are not going to ask him again later why they are still close to call and it doesn't happen one more time. But I use this analogy not in terms of political content, orientation, anything else, success, what he will have to face, but the parallel here between the career of John McCain and perhaps the career of Winston Churchill.

For as Winston Churchill used to say, if he died in 1938, nobody would have remembered him, never mind being the wartime leader of Britain and the prime minister at age 65. The McCain story, no matter what happens from here, is a fascinating political biography.

WILLIAMS: I heard you make that comparison earlier and I loved it because it's such great reading and people should go back now and see what happened in the history of the United Kingdom that brought him back.

And you know, when he had to ditch into the lake in the middle of Saigon, I mean, it was an extraordinary story, this great young naval aviator, son of an admiral, and the people, the men he was with for the years in the Hanoi Hilton in the years he was there, what he put up with, struggling to then get a political foothold back in the United States in Arizona, struggling to put his physical body back together, there is no quit in the guy.

He has sometimes joked that he's been scared by the professionals. So a minor thing like life, running for president, a political campaign, you've got to bring it worse than that if you're going to get John McCain's attention. People would be well counseled to remember those qualities and traits as this campaign goes on. And you're right to point it out.

OLBERMANN: And he survived a teleprompter failure during a speech tonight.


WILSON: That's right. And he likes that head-on ballroom teleprompter in the back of the room as opposed to that dual plate glass kind that you and I...

OLBERMANN: Which reminds me again of from the beginning of the campaign after when he tried the speech after a good night and had nothing and was reading off notes and obviously improved on the technology.

WILSON: Look what it's done for your career and mine.

OLBERMANN: I was just going to say. For both of us. Brian Williams, great thanks.

WILSON: Bye.

OLBERMANN: By down there. All right.

More results from the exit polls. We will also check back in with the panel and do the Chuck Todd thing again. That's MSNBC's decision 2008 coverage continues with once again, Texas and Ohio too close to call among the Democrats after this.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

OLBERMANN: Vermont is Obama's. Rhode Island is Clinton's. But otherwise, too close to call among the Democrats. In Texas whereas we just heard if you missed it Chuck Todd explaining why it too close to call. That's almost all early voting, and not even the early voting from Houston which the numbers are extraordinary by themselves.

And too close to call in Ohio where as Chuck reported, we are getting basically zero percent from Cincinnati, zero percent from Dayton, about one percent from Toledo, about two percent from Cleveland, Cuyahoga County, no count until at least 4:30 in the morning.

Meanwhile, as we pointed out, also in Rhode Island, Senator Clinton is the projected winner, we don't know about the margin there. And in Vermont where he is looking to get around two thirds in a threshold state for proportional delegate assignment. The projection simply at this point is Senator Obama is the winner in Vermont.

So one apiece. Too close to call. And of course on the Republican side, the presumptive nominee John McCain having crossed the necessary threshold of 1,191. His only remaining challenger with any remote chance of the nomination, Governor Huckabee basically conceding saying that Senator McCain would be the nominee. They spoke, McCain and Huckabee to each other and then to the media.


Senator Obama called to Senator McCain to congratulate him. He is the now Republican presumptive nominee. And what we are getting is further information, more exit polls, new numbers in Texas where the numbers are just beginning to trickle in and will certainly be fascinating. Once again, Norah O'Donnell with those. Norah?

O'DONNELL: And you have called Texas, of course, too close to call. You know what they say in Texas, don't mess with Texas. Well, in Texas, we are closely watching the composition of the Democratic primary electorate today and we are finding some very interesting things. One key question is how big a share of the electorate do African-Americans and Hispanics make up? The more African Americans, the better it is for Barack Obama. The more Hispanics, the better it is for Hillary Clinton.

Well, our exit polls shows an increase in Hispanic voters from 2004 with an African-American share that remains about the same as four years ago.

And as we look more closely at the Hispanic vote, we find that Hillary Clinton is winning Hispanics by a margin of nearly two to one.

And of course Texas has the second largest Hispanic population in the country after California. Now, turning to white voters, Clinton is edging out Obama overall but take a look at the gender breakdown. And here is what is interesting. Clinton is winning white women by 19 points. That's 59 percent to 40 percent, that's on the inside there.

But the white male vote is a virtual dead heat, 50 for Clinton, 49 percent for Obama. One of the key swing groups of course. On the breakdown by age, Obama is still winning younger voters, including Hispanics under age 30. Older voters favor Clinton and on party affiliation our exit poll show both independents and Republicans were factors in this primary in Texas. In fact, they made up a third of the electorate today.

And among the self-identified Democrats, Clinton is leading, but among the self-identified independents and Republicans and cross-over Republicans, those two bottom groups made up a third of the electorate today.

It's also interesting tonight that in Texas Clinton appears to be leading among the late deciders. She is winning among those voters who said they decided on their nominee in the last week. So that could be interesting. Chris and Keith, back to you.

OLBERMANN: All right. Thank you, Nora with the exit polls, some of the demographics out of Texas. Let's turn now to NBC News chief White House correspondent David Gregory to cut some of these apart further.

All right. As near I can follow it. Clinton is getting Hispanics, white women and older voters, general, Obama, African-American voters and younger. No surprises in any of those. A tie among white males?

GREGORY: Right. And that's going to be some evidence of what we have been seeing Barack Obama building over these victories. It was 12 in a row. But now we are projecting Rhode Island for Clinton. That will be an important group for Obama in Texas. But we are still seeing evidence of the pre-Potomac primary coalition on both sides starting to gel.

I think what's interesting, talking to some of the Obama people tonight, they are positions themselves to make an argument about the math, not about momentum. They feel good about Texas. They say at this stage, it's still very, very close there. Ohio as well. But with Clinton winning, at least projected to win Rhode Island, and if she can win Ohio, even people close to Obama say tonight she's going to have some bragging rights coming out of tonight that could be helpful to her putting the Obama campaign in the position of day in and day out arguing the math, arguing however many delegates Clinton can pull out of tonight that it won't be enough to catch and continuing to make the push on super delegates beginning to break his way, and that's the new narrative that could potentially come out of tonight with both sides spinning.


A new way to look at this race. We said, Keith, earlier on tonight it was a new way to look at this race. And we said, Keith, earlier on tonight it was about whether there could be some change in the dynamic. That's what both sides are watching very carefully now.

OLBERMANN: And do we have anything more on what the Clinton campaign is doing with these precinct packets? There's another complaint about what went on in the caucuses. Are we getting again that little pre-softening up to suggest that whatever happens in Texas, it wasn't legitimate unless it favored Senator Clinton?

GREGORY: Well, there are certainly concerns that have been raised and we have also seen some confrontation between a lawyer for the Obama campaign and the Clinton communications people, so they are going to fight this out to the end. You heard Terry McAuliffe said earlier tonight he likes primaries, not caucuses, so this is a razor thin margin that we are talking about in Texas. And it is going to be fought all the way. There's a will the of bragging rights that are being fought over tonight. Bragging rights over the math, bragging rights over momentum, bragging rights over whether voters should take a second look at Barack Obama and perhaps some doubts trying to be created. Lots of ways to try to spin a new way to look at the race to keep the race going.

OLBERMANN: All right, David. David Gregory, thanks.

GREGORY: Thanks.

MATTHEWS: Let's talk to supporters with both Democratic candidates. Starting with Lisa Caputo, a Clinton supporter, served as Hillary Clinton's press secretary when of course she was first lady. Lisa, tonight, what makes first victory for Senator Clinton? What does it take?

LISA CAPUTO, CLINTON SUPPORTER: It's interesting. Now we hear the Obama campaign saying, oh no, it's not about momentum, it's about delegate count, which is the complete reverse of what we heard coming out of Super Tuesday and over the last primaries. I think tonight what you are seeing, Chris, come through is the sheer grit of the candidate herself who has just been tireless.

She's going to come out of this tonight, it looks like, you know, hopefully winning Ohio and Texas. She has obviously won Rhode Island, but I think a couple of thins are important to note. One is her message has changed and it's resonating. You saw in the exit polls, late deciders are going with Hillary Clinton. That means she's doing something right on her messaging. Her message on the economy. Her message on national security, and whether or not Barack Obama is ready to be candidate in chief is resonating.

Second, they have put Obama on the defensive on NAFTA, on the national security issues so that is resonating and let's remember one thing, the Clinton campaign was outspent in these states. So the sheer fact that she's either close or going to win these is really something.

MATTHEWS: What about Texas? Do you believe that your campaign, Senator Clinton can simply reject that count and say that state doesn't count tonight because they don't like the way the vote was organized, the fact that the caucuses being scheduled after the primary, they don't like the whole setup in Texas, can your campaign reject the results?

CAPUTO: I don't think any campaign can reject results, Chris, but I think that you can contest and see whether or not the process was carried out fairly. I don't know the details of what's transpired in Texas. There were reports going on throughout the day about Obama people showing up at polling stations in Ohio. I've heard the noise coming out of Texas. But I think any candidate has a legitimate complaint if they see any kind of indication of something gone awry or not being a fair ball. But I don't think you just reject it outright, no.

MATTHEWS: Let me ask you with how we keep count as you see it now. If tonight's tally, after we look through all four states and count all the delegates through the primaries and the caucuses in Texas and it turns out that the result tonight was a net zero, that nobody moved in terms of the relative strength of their numbers, what would that achieve for your candidate, for Senator Clinton?


CAPUTO: I think if the delegate count is net zero, I think you have to look at the momentum question. You just can't discount that, and that should mean more money for Hillary Clinton and I think it totally raises the question of super delegates and where they are going to go.

And it means that both candidates are still in play. Both candidates go into the races next week and then into Pennsylvania on April 22nd. So I think that this remains quite a contest, and I think that, again, you will see her continue to stay on the offensive with her message on her economic plan going after him, on NAFTA, and then also on the national security argument, whether or not he is ready to be commander in chief, that is clearly raising questions.

It's a question I think people are thinking about whether they have buyer's remorse.

MATTHEWS: Well, you have to buy first to have remorse. I know that phrase is all over the place but it's not strictly true. You have to buy to send back the product. These are new voters that may be getting second thoughts - I think your point is clear that they are having second thoughts. Thank you, Lisa Caputo with the Clinton campaign. We will talk Obama supporter Ron Kirk, the former mayor of Dallas a little later on.

OLBERMANN: Right now we are joined once again by NBC's Tom Brokaw. We have been threatening almost to get back to this subject of your reporting on 50 superdelegates essentially in Obama's back pocket and there was a Politico story that the Clinton - there is a rearguard action from the Clinton campaign to keep its superdelegates in the fold. Are these two things related and what can you amplify on what you've reported previously, Tom?

TOM BROKAW, NBC NEWS ANCHOR: They are related. The Obama superdelegates who have not yet been rolled out, so to speak, are getting a fair amount of pressure from the Clinton campaign. But I am told tonight by somebody very close to Senator Obama's campaign that their super delegates are holding. The plan now at the moment is probably to roll them out in the news cycle over the next several weeks. If this campaign goes on, beginning tomorrow for the next seven weeks into Pennsylvania, as it now appears more likely will, given the tonight and the comments tonight from the Clinton campaign, then these super delegates will be more important not just for the place they occupy in the delegate column but for the sense of momentum.

I'm also told by people close to the Obama campaign that whatever gains Senator Clinton makes tonight in delegates, they think it's going to be in the range of 15 or 16 in terms of the total pick up. That they can cancel that out in Wyoming and in Mississippi. These are the two coming up in the next week or so.

OLBERMANN: So the super delegates that we are talking about are not just faceless, behind the scenes manipulators, but name recognition events - is each one going to be a story?

BROKAW: I am told that they are not superstars and there is not a presidential candidate among them so it is not Bill Richardson or John Edwards. But their people have not yet made a commitment. Numbers count at this stage. And they will continue to all the day in Denver come the summer. If I could, I'd like to make some observation about John McCain in looking at these exit poll numbers tonight. We have to remember that in Texas we are seeing a lot of independents and Republicans coming out of the polling booth saying they pulled the lever for the Democrats. Sixty percent of them in Texas says that they are very worried about the financial condition of their family in the next year. John McCain has not talked much about the economy in the course of this campaign. He's put a big stack of chips on his national security credentials. That will become an issue for him and especially if he is embraced politically by President Bush tomorrow.

During the course of this last year of the president's administration when the country is now squarely in a recession according to warren buffet and many others. So that's going to be something that John McCain is going to have to be addressing sooner rather than later.

MATTHEWS: Tom, you know it's been said by the Clinton people and fairly so that other fights for party nominations have gone into June. Certainly they have. But this campaign began much earlier than any other campaign we can remember. Isn't this the longest fight between two people for the presidency, the one we are watching right now?

BROKAW: Well, the conditions are much different now, Chris. We have 24/7 here on MSNBC and the other cable channels. We have all the Web sites that are devoted to this. The blog tonight, the Politico, for example, is moment by moment tracking what is is going on. So it is more intense now. A lot of campaigns in the past have started earlier, but they have been off the radar screen for most voters in this country until it reached their region of the country.


That's no longer true. It's all now, small screen, either television or the Internet, and it's almost inescapable. If you go to any airport or bar in America or anyplace where there's a television set, you see all politics all the time these days, and it has generated an enormous amount of interest. In all the years that I have been doing this, I don't remember a time in which the country's nerve endings were so exposed, and that includes 1968. More people are paying more attention this time, and by the way, not making an early commitment so many of them. We are seeing that tonight in the polls tonight as well. Some are saying I made up my mind in the last week or last 24 hours or when I walked into the booth. That has been consistent throughout the campaign as well.

OLBERMANN: And the other hard numbers, not to toot horns or anything because it has been seen on other networks as well, but the debate from last Tuesday was watched at some points by 9 million people, and then the 10:00 hour was the highest rated television network in all of television. There are a lot more networks than there used to be which indicates that level of interest that you are talking about, sort of quantifies it.

BROKAW: Absolutely. I can say this because I'm on the outside looking in, but your network, MSNBC, had its highest number ever in that dough bait. It was, what, the 20th debate in which Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama appeared? So people are tuned in. They have great concerns about the issues and the campaign will begin to turn more clearly on those issues, I think, in the next week as well.

OLBERMANN: All right. Tom Brokaw, great thanks.

Up next, we will rejoin our panel. We continue to await something to tell you besides It's too early to call or too close to call in Texas. Never too early. MSNBC's DECISION 2008 coverage continues after this.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

OLBERMANN: NBC News has projected Hillary Clinton, the junior senator from New York, as the projected lowered in the State of Ohio in the Democratic primary there. Polls closed in some locations at 7:30 this evening. Others staying open until 9:00. More than half of the vote actually in. A substantial lead for Senator Clinton. It's Hillary Clinton the projected leader in Ohio. So one down and one to go. In terms of deciding this tonight.

MATTHEWS: She had been leading in all the polls. She had a much larger week several weeks ago but she held on and won in a state that has many of the demographics in her favor. A lot of working people. A lot of non collegiate people, what are called white ethnics. I never liked the phrase but it's useful. She's done very well in a state that's very concerned about the economy. Very worried about NAFTA, about trade policy. And ironically rewarded her despite the fact of her role in the administration which enacted NAFTA.

OLBERMANN: There is one caution on this in terms of that margin which we are seeing in the actual hard count of about 15, 16 percent. The possibility of that though it's not likely to change the outcome, 16 percent now. It's not going to change the outcome. The projection is solid. But, of course, Ohio is the home of the provisional ballot. There is going to be some late counting which could increase Senator Clinton's lead for all we know.

MATTHEWS: I think the home of president as well. You know what's interesting? She's won two tonight. That's two of four. I thought going into this if she won at least two, Ohio which she is wrong, Rhode Island which was always dicey because has been shifting away from her. She will be able to go out stiff upper lip no matter what happens in Texas. And have a party tonight. There will be a party tonight complete, as I said, with confetti. The president will be there. Her daughter will be there. They are going to have a victory excitement probably within the next 20 minutes. They are going to go to town on this.

I don't think they are going to wait for Texas. I think they are going to try to deny its importance, claim the complication there. Go for the victory they have in hands.

All right. Let's go take our time here with both Tom Brokaw and Tim Russert who join us again. Tim, are we going to possibly have two victory celebrations tonight if Obama takes Texas? What do we see happening for the full night?


RUSSERT: Well, winning Ohio is a very important and big victory for Hillary Clinton, there is no doubt about it. You heard her earlier tonight, Keith, with Andrea Mitchell saying Ohio is the center piece for any democratic candidate to be successful in the fall. And, therefore, winning that in the primary is an indication that she can do just that. It's a state that is reeling economically and she was able to make that case, convincing the blue collar voters, particularly women as well, white ethnic women over 50 making less than $50,000. She put together her coalition. It held in a very formidable way.

There is no doubt about it capturing Ohio in this state of the race is a very big victory for Hillary Clinton.

MATTHEWS: Let me ask you, Tom, about this tonight. How are we going to score this going to bed tonight if Texas remains murky?

BROKAW: Well, I think if it's very close in Texas, and she clearly now is going to win Ohio, this she will have good reason to claim that she's still in this race, she's going to see it through to the next stop which is Pennsylvania which is the indication we have had all day long. They began to see something in Ohio earlier in the last 24 hours or so because the competence in the Clinton campaign was almost palpable if you talk to anyone there. I do think as they say Texas about things, if it's true, it ain't brag. That in Ohio with this victory, it ain't brag. It's a very important cornerstone for her because as Tim point out it has been in the last several election cycles a critical state. In the last one it was the state. It was Tim and Ohio, Ohio, Ohio. The state is as Tim indicated reeling economically, so much so that when we ask voters who voted in the Democratic primary tonight about what was the most important factor for them, 69 percent said the economy, both health care, and the war in Iraq which had, been on par with those issues in the economy in most other states were down below 20 percent.

MATTHEWS: Let me try this by you, Tim Russert, the Clinton argument. The Clinton argument. New York, New Jersey, Michigan, although that's questionable, California, now Ohio, perhaps Pennsylvania in their lights, can they claim that they have won the main base of the Democratic Party?

RUSSERT: Well, Mark Penn said the only significant state Barack Obama won was Illinois which created a real uproar with some other states. When I use those exact states with the Obama campaign, they will counter, what about Connecticut, what about Missouri, what about Iowa, what about Wisconsin, so the fact is both campaigns are going to lay claim to winning a lot of states. Obama will say they won even more. The importance of this victory tonight for Hillary Clinton is psychological. She can say all right, I didn't gain that many more delegates. And Obama still will be leading in the elected delegate field, but I deserve to continue this debate across the country, and the fund-raising people, I think in the campaign organization will say, you're right Hillary, let's go.

We're going to go out to Andrea Mitchell in a second, but Tim, if momentum moves around as quickly as it has tonight and has been perceived to have moved around in the primary, how finely a split thing is momentum in this, if Hillary Clinton wins Ohio, and sometime later tonight Barack Obama takes Texas, did the momentum change again because he took Texas again later in the night?

RUSSERT: That's a great point. If Obama won 11 states, the Clinton campaign defined success as Ohio and Texas. What's the next success, Pennsylvania April 22nd? You simply ignore Wyoming and Mississippi. We have to be so careful of both sides trying to spin and claim success, Keith. That's why the delegate count is important and I think becomes much more important in 48 hours than we are watching victories tonight.

OLBERMANN: All right, Tim, let's, as we said, go out to the headquarters of the Clinton campaign for the night in the Columbus Athenaeum in Columbus, Ohio. Andrea Mitchell is literally getting into position now and I'm hope can hear us. Andrea, obviously Ohio is Hillary Clinton's. Is momentum's Hillary Clinton's?

MITCHELL: They're going to declare it.

She's on the way to the hall we understand, on her way down here. And then she's planning to fly back to Washington, we are told, Chris, that President Clinton will meet her back in Washington tonight. He is on his way back to the campaign and then he will then be going on to Wyoming. But clearly, they're going to claim victory tonight, even though they are behind in the delegates, they can't catch up in the delegates, they're going to say this gives them the push they need to go on to Pennsylvania.

OLBERMANN: This is MSNBC's coverage of VOTR, Vermont, Ohio, Texas and Rhode Island where Ohio has gone to Hillary Clinton on our NBC News projection after being too close to call since the polls closed at 7:30 Eastern Time. Senator Clinton has been the projected winner in Rhode Island and at this hour Obama has taken Vermont with Texas too close to call.


KEITH OLBERMANN, MSNBC ANCHOR: Resuming with Chris Matthews here in

New York at MSNBC and NBC News world headquarters. We also have Tom Brokaw

continuing with us and again, Andrea Mitchell is at a very noisy Columbus

Athenaeum. All right. So we're expecting a speech from senator Clinton.

We're expecting what else tonight from President Clinton? Is he just going to

stand there? It is so noisy, now, is that correct? It's too noisy to get in

touch with Andrea Mitchell.

It's also too noisy in here. Chris, what else are we expecting from Senator Clinton tonight.

CHRIS MATTHEWS, MSNBC ANCHOR: I think that was a great question you offered, this curly Q occasion of momentum, that somewhere in the night we expect momentum to turn again.

OLBERMANN: Right, if I win at 11:00 and you win at 12:00, do you have momentum.

MATTHEWS: I also go back to the idea, if we only keep score in the last month, and it's 13 to two at the end of tonight and then it's going to be 15 to two at the end of the week, next week. Is that a turn to Clinton for Pennsylvania? Or is it simply a case to be made that may not be strong?

OLBERMANN: Over seven weeks. How is this going to be sustained? How is the Democratic party going to hold itself together?


MATTHEWS: Let me go back to something in our American gut. 2000, it's in our gut that the election where one person got the most votes didn't win the election. So we were told, a lot of people that didn't remember their civics book, there's something called the electorate college. Then when that was still murky, they were told, oh, there's something called the Supreme Court intervention here, like the Schiavo case for presidents.

Now we're told, there's this thing called super delegates. So we not only don't have democracy, we don't even have representative democracy. We have these things called super delegates, who are not elected by anyone, and they can put their foot on the scale and decide who wins after everything we do.

OLBERMANN: Somebody had to approve the Supreme Court justices.

MATTHEWS: They can not suppress our vote. They can ignore it. That's a question the Democrats have to deal with, whether you're a Clinton supporter or a Barack supporter, or you're someone supposedly still independent; can you go to a convention and tell the delegates, many of whom were elected for Obama, and tell them, there's these people that met and they decided that your guy didn't win.

And I just think it's a difficult question for Senator Clinton and for President Clinton to deal with if tonight, if tonight ends up being another draw, if they don't have a clear victory. If they win Texas tonight, they deserve their gust of wind at their back. I'm not sure that's the result yet tonight. Let's wait and see in a couple hours.

OLBERMANN: Let's get what we're expecting, as we know now that Senator Clinton is in the hall in Columbus, where Andrea Mitchell is, again, and back in communications with us, we hope. How are they going to do this, who's going to do what?

ANDREA MITCHELL, MSNBC CORRESPONDENT: Hillary Clinton is going to come

out here and this place will rock. Bill Clinton is, I'm told, on his way back

to Washington to meet her there. I assume we will see some sort of victory

declaration back in Washington tomorrow. She's going to have a big meeting,

which has been planned for the last couple of days, with her staff back in

Washington, Keith and Chris. They have to decide what to do, especially if


it's a split victory.

It is a very tough decision. As you heard Ed Rendell in your interview earlier tonight, Chris, he and other super delegates are going to be saying, it's time for you to back out. But it's such a painful decision to make for a politician who has put her heart and soul in this and who can say, it's practically a tie if she wins tonight in Ohio, and if she's only a couple of percentage points behind on the delegates. I think she's going to be very much pressured as well internally to stay in the race.

MATTHEWS: How about a middle case; suppose she knows she can't win and catch up with the numbers, but she wants to leave this campaign in a stronger position to go into the convention, perhaps after Pennsylvania. She quits then. She knows now she probably will quit April 23rd. If she plans on that, won't she go into the convention in stronger position to dictate a health care platform that she wants, to dictate the vice presidency perhaps.

Does she have a stronger position if she waits this out for one more month or is she hated for doing it?

MITCHELL: It's a very tough call. You and I both know in Pennsylvania - we've both lived and worked there for so many years, before we came to Washington, we know that Pennsylvania, with the help of Ed Rendell, is very much the old kind of state which would be favorable to Hillary Clinton. I think she has a very good case for going on to Pennsylvania.

But the counter-argument, as you point out, is unite the party now, don't waste money. There's a Republican nominee presumptive and, you know, get the party together before John McCain can get some traction against the two Democrats who are flailing each other. It's only going to get nastier.

MATTHEWS: Maybe she can go to Pennsylvania and not bring the kitchen sink with her. That would be nice, and still win. It is possible.

MITCHELL: You know, then you raise the whole question as to whether one of these two very strong, very effective politicians would even consider the other for a ticket, depending on who is at the top of the ticket. It's just very hard to imagine these two people coming together, despite what anyone might say, going back to that Los Angeles debate about it being a dream ticket for the Democrats.

OLBERMANN: Before we hear from Senator Clinton, maybe as soon as 90 seconds, is there, to your knowledge, a game plan in the Clinton campaign for getting the nomination that does not include some kind of element of Pyrrhic victory, that does not include beating up the other guy on the way to that, and then invoking super delegates and convention deals and all the other things that would seem to make Democrats faint at the very thought of it?

MITCHELL: That's the problem. There's no other way. The math just goes against it. And you would have such a - an outrageous - or rather an outrage among the passionate, committed supporters of Barack Obama. Barack Obama has brought so many young people and so many people who have never been involved in the political process into something that has been described accurately as a movement. And to deny him the nomination by a deal of super delegates is not going to rest easy.

Those people will then possibly abandon the party and that could lead to a Democratic defeat. So that would be on the shoulders of whoever was cutting those deals. That would be the argument. You would have potentially a 1968 all over again, where Hubert Humphrey was the nominee but it was a Pyrrhic victory.

OLBERMANN: How - 1968 is one analogy. There are others throughout history where it's been worse. How strident is it? And are the Clinton people - is there an argument inside that campaign saying, you know, we can't run the risk of driving people potentially to some unknown, unnamed third party candidate?


MITCHELL: You can hear that the - There is an argument inside the campaign. You have some of the people around Bill Clinton who are suggesting that she could bow out if it's a split victory. But right now, I've got to tell you, they're all going to celebrate, because they came back from the dead here in Ohio. They had a big, big lead. They blew that lead. He outspent them.

They've come back and they are declaring victory tonight. And you've got the governor, Senator Glenn, who is a great hero here in Ohio, and a vigorous, active political leader. And they're going to now welcome Hillary Clinton here as a victor, and doing it before the Texas results, so that she can then go back to Washington before probably Texas is declared.

MATTHEWS: I think, Andrea, the former president and Chelsea will show up there tonight by surprise to add to the excitement. That's my bet. We'll see what happens.

MITCHELL: You got the best instincts in politics and in journalism, so I wouldn't discount it. But all the reports were that he would not. There's an argument that he would not be an addition. This is her night, not his.

OLBERMANN: Andrea, we're going to stop straining your ears while the roar crests and falls, and speak amongst ourselves for the moment. As we await Senator Clinton coming out, you mentioned former Senator Glenn in present and ready to celebrate. Let's explore this idea of the malleability of momentum. This is - we speak so often in politics some candidate's moment. I never knew it was literal. You only get a moment? You get - per victory, you get a certain 90-minute span maybe?

MATTHEWS: It could be that what we're watching is a running or a gradual progressive look at the Democratic party, which is giving us a losing notion of changing momentum. It could be that Ron Brownstein, who is so brilliant, who was with the "LA Times," now with the "National Journal," he's said for months now that there's two Democratic wings. One is the idealistic wing, the one that is looking for the future, the big picture, with no special interests. They just want a better country, a better place in the world.

They're concerned about energy and things like that, climate change. But no needs up front. Then the rest of the party are people with very basic needs, minimum wage, jobs, health care. They really need this stuff right now. We're going through the country and looking at different patterns of that, different compositions of that.

In Connecticut, there's a lot more college than working desperate people. You go to Ohio, there are a lot more desperate people. What we're doing is moving through time in creating the illusion of different movements and different cadences and different changes of speed. When, in fact, all we're doing is crossing the country according to the schedule that was laid out. That's what we're doing. You see what I'm saying?

OLBERMANN: Of course.

MATTHEWS: It could be, if we went to Texas three months ago, we would have had the same results. We keep calling this, perhaps, in an artificial way. There is a fade of his support, or what is the term, buyer's remorse. I kept reminding good old Lisa tonight, nobody bought anything yet. You're not at the return counter yet. These are new buyers. Had they been purchasers three months ago in Texas, we may have had the same results.

It may be illusory. What we're really looking at is the contours of the Democratic party. Most Democrats didn't have four years of college. Most Democrats are white people. Most Democrats are probably working people. There is a lot of pattern to it and in every state there's different numbers of African-Americans, different numbers of Latinos, different age groups. It just takes time to cross the country. That's an argument to finish the process perhaps.

OLBERMANN: What counts to this point? Is there any grand statistic that actually means something?


MATTHEWS: Yes, Barack's got the most votes and he's got the most delegates.

OLBERMANN: And the other one, about he's never been behind a day in terms of the delegate count since they started awarding delegates?

MATTHEWS: By the normal way we keep score, he's won this game. He's regulation already. By the way we used to keep score.

OLBERMANN: So everything else, including what both of the campaign will be saying tonight about Ohio and however Texas turns out -

MATTHEWS: We've never had a former first lady married to a former president with the amazing clout in the Democratic party that these two people have. They are the Democratic party, almost as much as Ronald Reagan was the Republican party. They are very much alive and very ambitious, and maybe entitled by their likes to this nomination.

OLBERMANN: With the entitlement, does there not come even more responsibility than any other candidate in her position would have to make sure that the Democratic party is undamaged going into the general election, that if anybody were to say, OK, this is going to go on like this for -

MATTHEWS: It's been decades since presidential politics was a team sport.

OLBERMANN: So there's no one under any obligation to make sure that the other -

MATTHEWS: You can pose that. I don't think it means much. In the end, Senator Clinton is going to have to decide whether all her years of effort, going all the way back to the beginning of her marriage, you could argue, all this thinks about some day having a policy influence, some day being able to carry out what she thinks is important for America, some day to reach her own ambition, perhaps - and I'm not sure when it began, I don't know - to be president of the United States.

Why should she walk away when there's still the possibility of being elected president? It's a hard thing to walk away from. If something breaks bad in Pennsylvania, the super delegates go to her, and everybody would say, they have to. If the Rezko case develops into something really big and somehow brings in Senator Obama, somehow, she must be thinking there's a chance there.

OLBERMANN: What happens if that seven weeks, whether it's about Rezko or anything else, manages to do what that one quote that I keep going back to from Toledo yesterday, and the earlier version from Austin over the weekend does? Yes, see, I'm better than Obama and I'm, in the meantime, also reminding you that McCain, in this particular category, is better than either one of us.

At what point do you have to say the only way for me to win now is to lose later or to guarantee that the other guy loses?


MATTHEWS: I've never seen a partisan character employ the pincer with the other party, which is what she's doing.

OLBERMANN: At some point, there would seem to be a backlash to that within the Democratic party.

MATTHEWS: You may be one person who has latched onto that and noticed the real aggressiveness of that move, to say that John and I are qualified, this guy isn't. He's the odd one out. That is strong politics and it's also defeating, if you're going to have him as your candidate.

OLBERMANN: Whether he's the candidate or she's the candidate, it's defeat. That's my point to you. At what point do you say wait a minute, I just made this literally years of service. Neither of them beats John McCain.

MATTHEWS: Lyndon Johnson at the Democratic convention in Los Angeles in 1960 had his guy, John Connally, go out there and say that John Kennedy suffered from Addison's Disease, a life threatening disease. He was only able to stay alive with steroid use on a regular basis.

OLBERMANN: Which he was.

MATTHEWS: Which is all true. He became secretary of the Navy and Lyndon Johnson became vice president. So politics continues.

OLBERMANN: It continues with unimaginable consequences where John Connally also wound up. You see the confetti that -

MATTHEWS: I promised it.

(CROSS TALK)

MATTHEWS: If I'm right, the president will show up at some moment here. I may be wrong, but I think he'll show up, and Chelsea too.

OLBERMANN: You're right on Chelsea. There she is. So you're one for two. You're two for three.


MATTHEWS: Maybe because she split tonight, Bill doesn't get the -

OLBERMANN: We don't know if she split tonight.

MATTHEWS: Maybe if she doesn't split, he won't get the night. There's a great man behind her, John Glenn. What a great man he is.

OLBERMANN: In so many different respects. Tim Russert is back with us as we wait for the roaring to stop and the speaking to begin. Is there a way to judge what this means now, or does it have to be accepted only in the context of whatever happens in Texas?

TIM RUSSERT, "MEET THE PRESS": No, Keith, I think it's clear by this response and - from the Clinton campaign that they are going to go on. If Texas is too close to call or there's a popular vote versus a delegate count, everything I'm hearing is that the message is resonating; we think we're delineating the differences; we think people have to hear this. More people have to participate. Something may happen. Don't get your head in the weeds on this delegate count.

There are a lot more states at play. Let's let this debate continue and on and on. I think that's what we're seeing tonight with the magnitude of this celebration.

OLBERMANN: Senator Clinton still waiting for the cheers to die down and now about to address the crowd in Columbus and they're going to go up again. Trying to judge this is like trying to judge the momentum for tonight.

We have to address this at some point. Now that we're talking about the momentum of the Clinton campaign, is this not the same campaign that for the last 11 primaries told us that momentum didn't matter? It was the final score that mattered?

RUSSERT: Yes, and the same campaign that said states don't nominate candidates, delegates do. But every opportunity that has presented itself to these campaigns, they're going to grab onto and take advantage of and try to spin. Tonight will be, we won Ohio and we deserve some credit for that and some attention for that.

I do think in 48 hours, we'll go back looking at delegate totals. But tonight, the euphoria of a victory is center stage.

OLBERMANN: We'll let the senator enjoy it.

SEN. HILLARY CLINTON (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: For everyone here in Ohio and across America, who's ever been counted out but refused to be knocked out and -


for everyone who has stumbled but stood right back up, and for everyone -

who works hard and never gives up, this one is for you. You know what they say: As Ohio goes, so goes the nation.

Well, this nation's coming back, and so is this campaign. The people

of Ohio have said it loudly and clearly. We're going on, we're going strong,

and we're going all the way. You know, they call Ohio a bellwether state.

It's a battleground state. It's a state that knows how to pick a president.

And no candidate in recent history, Democrat or Republican, has won the White House without winning the Ohio primary.

AUDIENCE: Yes, she will! Yes, she will! Yes, she will! Yes, she will! Yes, she will! Yes, she will! Yes, she will! Yes, she will! Yes, she will! Yes, she will! Yes, she will! Yes, she will!

CLINTON: You all know that, if we want a Democratic president, we need a Democratic nominee who can win the battleground states, just like Ohio.

And that is what we've done. We've won Florida, Nevada, New Mexico, Arizona, Michigan, New Hampshire, Arkansas, California, New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Oklahoma and Tennessee.

And today we won Rhode Island. And thanks to all my friends and supporters there. This is a great night. But we all know that these are challenging times. We have two wars abroad; we have a recession looming here at home.

Voters faced a critical question: Who is tested and ready to be commander-in-chief on day one? And who knows how to turn our economy around? Because we sure do need it. Ohio has written a new chapter in the history of this campaign, and we're just getting started.


More and more people have joined this campaign, and millions of Americans haven't spoken yet. In states like Pennsylvania and so many others, people are watching this historic campaign, and they want their turn to help make history.

They want their voices to count, and they should. They should be heard. So, please, join us in this campaign. Go to www.HillaryClinton.com [link].

This is your campaign and your moment, and I need your support. For more than a year, I've been listening to the voices of people across our country, you know, the single mom who told me she works two jobs, neither provides health care for her kids. She just can't work any harder.

The little girl who asked how I'd help people without homes? It turns out her family was about to lose their own.

The young man in a Marine Corps shirt who said he waited months for medical care, he said to me, "Take care of my buddies. A lot of them are still over there. And then will you please help take care of me?"

Americans don't need more promises. They've heard plenty of speeches.

They deserve solutions, and they deserve them now.

America needs a president who's ready to lead, ready to stand up for what's right even when it's hard. And after seven long years of George W. Bush -

we sure are ready for a president who will be a fighter, a doer, and a champion for the American people again. Oh, I think we're ready for health care, not just for some people or most people, but for every American.

I think we're ready for an economy that works for everyone, not just

those at the top, but every single hard-working American who deserves a shot at

the American dream. I think we're ready to declare energy independence and


create millions of green-collar jobs.

We're ready to reach out to our allies and confront our shared challenges. We're ready to end the war in Iraq and win the war in Afghanistan.

And we're past ready to serve our veterans with the same devotion that they served us. You know, protecting America is the first and most urgent duty of the president. When there's a crisis and that phone rings at 3 a.m. in the White House, there's no time for speeches or on-the-job training. You have to be ready to make a decision. I congratulate Senator McCain on winning his party's nomination, and I look forward to a spirited and substantive debate with him.

You know -

AUDIENCE: Yes, she will! Yes, she will! Yes, she will! Yes, she will! Yes, she will! Yes, she will! Yes, she will! Yes, she will!

CLINTON: You know, I want to thank the wonderful people of Ohio for your support and your confidence in me. I especially want to thank Governor Ted Strickland and his wonderful wife, Frances.

You know, Governor and Mrs. Strickland are working so hard on behalf of Ohio, and they deserve a president who will work hard with them to give Ohio the future that you deserve. I want to thank Senator John Glenn and his wonderful wife, Annie. I want to thank -

Lieutenant Governor Lee Fisher and his wife, Peggy.

And I especially want to thank Congresswoman Stephanie Tubbs Jones.

She does an extraordinary job for her constituents. And she has been a

champion on behalf of the people of Ohio and America. And I look forward to

working with her to bring more opportunity to the people that she loves and


represents so well.

I want to thank my extraordinary staff, volunteers, and supporters here in Ohio and across America.

And I especially want to thank the two most important people in my life, Bill and Chelsea. And, of course, to my mother, who I know is watching, thanks very much, Mom, for everything. And, finally, to Senator Obama, who has brought so much to this race, I look forward to continuing our dialogue in the weeks ahead on the issues that matter most to our country.

I want to end by sharing with you a message that I got late last month from someone who didn't have much money to spare, but sent me $10 for my campaign and sent an e-mail in which she wrote, "My two daughters are two and four. And we chant and cheer for you at every speech we see. I want them to know anything is possible."

Tonight, I say to them: Keep on watching. Together, we're going to make history. To those little girls, I say: This is America. And we do believe you can be anything you want to be. And we want our sons and our daughters to dream big.

I have big dreams for America's future. The question is not whether we can fulfill those dreams; it's whether we will. And here's our answer: Yes, we will.

We will do what it takes, and we will, once again, make the kind of progress that America deserves. We're going to protect our country and preserve our Constitution. We're going to lead with our values.

We will reach out to those on the margins and in the shadows, because that's what we do in America. We break barriers; we open doors; we make sure every voice is heard.

Together, we will turn promises into action, words into solutions, and hope into reality.

(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)

It will take - it will take leadership and hard work, but we've never been short on either. So I hope all of you will join, join with the Ohioans whose voices and votes have been heard today. Together, we will seize this moment, lift this nation, and heal and lead this world.

Thank you all and God bless you!


(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)

OLBERMANN: Hillary Clinton speaking for less than 15 minutes. No long-winded speech there. Many of the themes that we have been talking about throughout the evening, what would be anticipated in terms of selling this idea that this victory in Ohio means momentum and changes the nature of what had preceded it, which was a streak that ended at 12 in a row of caucuses and primary victories for Senator Barack Obama.

Texas is still very much in play. They're separated by about 2 percent and it's too early to call that one. Yes, you did hear it, if you heard the whole speech, she yelled out the names of the sequence of states that the campaign was going to continue onto, and somewhere, a series of Howard Dean supporters fell over in shock when that happened. I was walking in the hallways at that time and stopped dead in my tracks.

MATTHEWS: We've begun a new chapter in the campaign. She said tonight we're just getting started and then became a tribune for those states who have yet to hold their contests, saying they want their turn, they should be heard. She has formed a compact with the states that haven't had their elections yet.

She will fight for them to be heard.

That was serious business tonight. She basically put herself almost in a position of having burnt the ships - or rather having launched the ships for further contests. It's going to be hard to walk back from that now. It looks like she's going to Pennsylvania and that means that if she is going to do the polka, so does Barack Obama.

OLBERMANN: Tom Brokaw is with us once again. And that means we've just seen the groundhog equivalent - the political equivalent of the groundhog, we have seven more weeks of the primary season.

(LAUGHTER)

TOM BROKAW, FORMER NBC ANCHOR: I want to play the part of Bill Murray, if I can. That's a role I'd like. Well, in the victory for John McCain tonight, who is the Republican nominee for president of the United States, and in Hillary Clinton's appearance here tonight, and her victory in Ohio, we've seen two political warriors at their best. They both have been counted out in the course of this campaign on a number of occasions. This night is not yet over. It's just one of the two major states.

Her husband said in Beaumont, Texas, that she had to win both to remain viable. But with her speech here tonight, it's clear that she believes that she can go on from here and these kinds of speeches really do have an effect on the electorate and these campaigns, as you well know. People begin to look at her in a slightly different fashion.

A very, very enthusiastic Obama supporter said to me tonight, my God, you've got to hand it to her, in an e-mail. And I think probably a lot of people will feel that way about Hillary Clinton who went into Ohio, which is an important state, and she won not by a small margin, but by a significant margin in a state that has been pivotal in the past several election cycles and with the economy in the forefront of what appears to be the autumn agenda. Ohio is almost a test case for the Democrats. So this is a very important victory for her tonight.

OLBERMANN: Let's bring back - as Tom stays with us, let's return to Tim Russert and Brian Williams.


And, Tim, we just talked about how long you get, how long momentum stands in this process. Now after that speech, and that excitement and that genuine enthusiasm, and all credit due to Hillary Clinton for her victory in Ohio after nearly seeing the whole thing go out the window and come back and certainly win by at least double digits, maybe moderate to high double digits, Barack Obama is going to speak 10 minutes from now.

TIM RUSSERT, NBC WASHINGTON BUREAU CHIEF: Yes. There's no turning back for Hillary Clinton. If in fact she wins Texas, it only will spur her on more. If she loses it barely, she'll simply say it was a virtual tie. But once you say, I've gotten off the map for all those little people and lay out, as Chris said, all of the states in the future, Keith, she's in this.

And you know, I don't think it's just for seven weeks. I think what you'll hear from Barack Obama is, he's not going to let Pennsylvania be the next goal post. He is going to say, we're going all the way to the convention. And I think we will see both these candidates into Pennsylvania and far beyond.

My question will be, what are they going to do now about Florida and Michigan? They have to do something because those states are out there. They have been disqualified in effect by the Democratic National Committee. And they're going to need some determination from those states, I think, in order to determine the nominee of this party.

If Barack Obama is ahead with elected delegates, and you don't count Florida and Michigan, are there going to be do-overs and will that be the game in June?

MATTHEWS: Will Senator Clinton be able to say that if there's no solution agreed upon for either Michigan or Florida, that she doesn't have to have the total number of elected delegates to claim the right to use the superdelegates at that point?

RUSSERT: I think that, Chris, because of the party rules and because of the agreement of the candidates, those delegates will not count towards the nomination.

MATTHEWS: Right.

RUSSERT: But they're going to need to do something else. Governor Crist, I think, being somewhat mischievous and Republican, said he would be willing to pay for it. But if you schedule these primaries in June after Puerto Rico, you could have a big shootout. Michigan and Florida, and whoever wins those could take the lead in pledged delegates, or what happens if they're split 52-48 and Obama still has a pledged delegate lead, even though Clinton wins the popular vote? It is remarkable.

One other thing on Bill Clinton's comments, I've been going through this quote very carefully, Keith. "If she wins Texas and Ohio, I think she'll be the nominee. If you don't deliver for her, I don't think she can be." He never said she wouldn't go on. He said, I don't think she would be the nominee.

MATTHEWS: And that proves again the ability of Bill Clinton to always allow for an escape hatch, whatever he says.

RUSSERT: I'm just reading the words very carefully.


MATTHEWS: I know, but there's always one applied, there's always one provided.

RUSSERT: And you know, we'll know Texas shortly. If she wins Texas, it's an enormous night for her. If she doesn't, I think the Obama people will say, not so fast, let's look hard at this delegate count. And again, I keep restating this, by the end of this week, we'll be talking heavily about the delegate count once again.

OLBERMANN: And we go to San Antonio and see that that 10-minute window that we were expecting between Senator Clinton and Senator Obama may be less than 10 minutes. Momentum, changes, and it changes shape and there is more than one set of momentums - momenta? Per candidate. Brian Williams joins us again.

This is "Through the Looking Glass" stuff sometimes here. I mean, we have seen each of these candidates not counted out, and certainly have the unstoppable momentum and the surprise victories in places where they seem to be losing and to decry the very thing they endorsed the week before in terms of what counts, delegates or momentum. And here it changes yet again and may yet change before this night is done - Brian.

BRIAN WILLIAMS, NBC ANCHOR: Keith, it's unbelievable. And to take a theme from what Tom Brokaw started, the American people, at least the voters in these early Democratic primary states have proven again, along with a fair number of Republican governors in resuscitating John McCain's campaign, they have a funny way of deciding for themselves the direction of this, as Michelle makes her way off stage and the senator from Illinois gets ready to speak.

SEN. BARACK OBAMA (D-IL), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: How's it going, Texas!

(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)

OBAMA: Thank you!

(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)

OBAMA: Thank you, Texas! Thank you. Thank you, San Antonio.

(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)

OBAMA: Thank you!


Well, we are in the middle of a very close race right now in Texas. We may not even know the final results until morning. We do know that Senator Clinton has won Rhode Island and while there are a lot of votes to be counted in Ohio, it looks like she won there too.

So I want to congratulate Senator Clinton for running a hard-fought race in both Ohio and Rhode Island.

(APPLAUSE)

OBAMA: We also know that we've won the state of Vermont, so we want to

say thank you...

(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)

OBAMA:... to the people of Vermont. And we know this, no matter what happens tonight, we have nearly the same delegate lead as we did this morning, and we are on our way to winning this nomination.

(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)

OBAMA: Si se puede.

CROWD: Si se puede! Si se puede! Si se puede! Si se puede!

OBAMA: You know, decades ago, as a community organizer, I learned that the real work of democracy begins far from the closed doors and marbled halls of Washington. It begins on street corners and front porches, in living rooms and meeting halls with ordinary Americans who see the world as it is and realize that we have within our power to remake the world as it should be.

(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)


OBAMA: It is - it's with that hope that we began this journey. The hope that if we could go block by block, city by city, state by state, and build a movement that spanned race and region, party and gender, if we could give young people a reason to vote, and the young at heart a reason to believe again, if we could inspire a nation to come together, then we could turn the page on the politics that have shut us out, let us down and told us to settle. We could write a new chapter in the American story.

We were told this wasn't possible. We were told the climb was too steep. We were told our country was too cynical, that we were just being naive. That we couldn't really change the world as it is.

But then a few people in Iowa stood up and said, yes, we can.

(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)

OBAMA: And then a few more of you stood up from the hills of New

Hampshire to the coast of South Carolina, and then a few million of you stood

up from Savannah to Seattle, from Boise to Baton Rouge. And tonight, because

of you, because of a movement you've built that stretches from Vermont's Green

Mountains to the streets of San Antonio...

(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)

OBAMA:... we can stand up, we can stand up with confidence and clarity to say that we are turning the page and we are ready to write the next great chapter in America's story.

(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)


OBAMA: Now in the weeks to come, we will begin a great debate about the future of this country with a man who has served it bravely and loves it dearly. And tonight I called John McCain and congratulated him on winning the Republican nomination.

But in this election, we will offer two very different visions of the America we see in the 21st Century. Because John McCain may claim a long history of straight talk and independent thinking, and I respect that. But in this campaign, he has fallen in line behind the very same policies that have ill-served America.

He has seen where George Bush has taken our country and he promises to keep us on the very same course.

(BOOING)

OBAMA: It's the same course that threatens a century of war in Iraq, a third and fourth and fifth tour of duty for brave troops who have done all we've asked of them, even while we've asked little and expect nothing from the Iraqi government whose job it is to put their country back together.

Of course, a course where we spend billions of dollars a week that could be used to rebuild our roads, and our schools, to care for our veterans and send our children to college.

(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)

OBAMA: It's the same course that continues to divide and isolate America from the world by substituting bluster and bullying for direct diplomacy, by ignoring our allies and refusing to talk to our enemies. Even though presidents from Kennedy to Reagan have done just that, because strong countries and strong leaders aren't afraid to tell hard truths to petty dictators.

(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)

OBAMA: And it's the same course that offers the same tired answers to workers without health care and families without homes, to students in debt and children who go to bed hungry in the richest nation on earth.

Four more years of tax breaks for the biggest corporations and the wealthiest few who don't need them and aren't even asking for them, it's a course that further divides Wall Street from main street, where struggling families are told to pull themselves up by their boot straps because there's nothing government can do or should do.

And so we should give more to those with the most and let the chips fall where they may. Well, we are here to say tonight that is not the America we believe in. And this is not the future we want. We want a new course for this country. We want new leadership in Washington. We want change in America.


(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)

OBAMA: And John McCain and Hillary Clinton have echoed each other, dismissing this call for change as eloquent but empty. Speeches, not solutions. And yet they know, or they should know, that it's a call that did not begin with my words. It began with words that were spoken on the floors of factories in Ohio, and across the deep plains of Texas.

Words that came from classrooms in South Carolina and living rooms in the state of Iowa, from first-time voters and life-long cynics, from Democrats and independents and Republicans alike.

(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)

OBAMA: John McCain and Hillary Clinton should know that there's nothing empty about the call for affordable health care that came from the young student who told me she gets three hours of sleep a night because she works the night shift after a full day of college and still can't pay her sister's medical bills.

There's nothing empty about the call for help that comes from the mother in San Antonio who saw her mortgage double in two weeks and didn't know where her 2-year-olds would sleep at night when they were on the brink of being kicked out of their home.

There's nothing empty about the call for change who came from the elderly woman who wants it so badly that she sent me an envelope with a money order for $3.01 and a simple verse of scripture tucked inside. These Americans know that government can't solve all of our problems and they don't expect it to.

Americans know that we have to work harder and study more to compete in a global economy. Americans know that we need to take responsibility for ourselves and our children. And we need to spend more time with them and teach them well and put a book in their hands instead of a video game once in a while. We know this.

(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)

OBAMA: But we also believe that there is a larger responsibility that we have to one another as Americans. We believe that we rise or fall as one nation, as one people. That we are our brother's keeper. That we are our sister's keeper. We believe that a child born tonight should have the same chances, whether she arrives in the barrios of San Antonio or the suburbs of St. Louis, on the streets of Chicago or the hills of Appalachia.

We believe that when she goes to school for the first time, it should be in a place where the rats don't outnumber the computers. That when she applies to college, cost should be no barrier to a degree that will allow her to compete with children in India or children in China for the jobs of the 21st Century.

(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)


OBAMA: We further believe that those jobs should provide wages that can raise her family, health care for when she gets sick, a pension for when she retires. We believe that when she tucks her own children into bed, she should feel safe knowing that they are protected from the threats we face by the bravest, best-equipped military in the world, led by a commander-in-chief who has the judgment to know when to send them into battle and which battlefields to fight on.

(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)

OBAMA: And if that child should ever get the chance to travel the world, and someone should ask her where is she from, we believe that she should always be able to hold her head high with pride in her voice when she answers, I am an American.

(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)

OBAMA: That is the course we seek. That is the change we are calling for. You can call it many things, but you can't call it empty. If I am the nominee of this party, I will not allow us to be distracted by the same politics that seek to divide us with false charges and meaningless labels. In this campaign, we will not stand for the politics that uses religion as a wedge and patriotism as a bludgeon.

(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)

OBAMA: San Antonio, I owe what I am to this country, this country that I love. And I will never forget it. Where else could a young man who grew up herding goats in Kenya get the chance to fulfill his dream of a college education? Where else could he marry a white girl from Kansas whose parents survived war and a Great Depression to find opportunity out West?

Where else could they have a child who would one day have the chance to run to the highest office in the greatest nation the world has ever known?

(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)

OBAMA: Where else but in the United States of America?

(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)

OBAMA: It is now my hope and our task to set this country on a course that will keep this promise alive in the 21st Century. And the eyes of the world are watching to see if we can.


(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)

OBAMA: You know, there's a young man on my campaigns whose grandfather lives in Uganda. He's 81 years old. He has never experienced true democracy in his lifetime. During the reign of Idi Amin, he was literally hunted and the only reason that he escaped was thanks to the kindness of others and a few good-sized trucks.

And on the night of the Iowa Caucuses, that 81-year-old man stayed up until 5:00 in the morning huddled by his television waiting for the results of an election on the other side of the world.

The world is watching what we do here. The world is paying attention to how we conduct ourselves, what we say, how we treat one another. What will they see? What will we tell them? What will we show them?

Can we come together across party and region, race and religion to restore prosperity and opportunity as the birthright of every American? Can we lead the community of nations in taking on the common threats of the 21st Century, terrorism and climate change, genocide and disease?

Can we send a message to all of those weary travelers beyond our shores who long to be free from fear and want? That the United States of America is and always will be the last, best hope on earth. We say we hope, we believe. Yes, we can.

(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)

OBAMA: Thank you, San Antonio, God bless you! God bless America. I appreciate it.

(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)

OLBERMANN: Strategically...

OBAMA: Thank you!

OLBERMANN: Forgive me, Senator Obama. Strategically a different kind of speech than the one obviously that Hillary Clinton gave and a different kind of environment. Senator Obama speaking outdoors in San Antonio at the Municipal Auditorium after having taken a loss in Ohio and perhaps one in Texas.


We don't know. Texas is still at this late hour - at least in the East, too close to call. There was less about Hillary Clinton in that speech than Hillary Clinton said about him in her speech. There was more about McCain. There was less about the momentum or where the race stands.

Was there a sense to you, Chris, that there was - that Senator Obama was to a certain ignoring Senator Clinton or at least downplaying?

MATTHEWS: Well, it was an appropriate speech for someone who is ahead in delegates and isn't going to be caught. I think that is - I thought it was fascinating for the preview it gave us of a Pennsylvania campaign.

I quote the former governor of Pennsylvania as saying that Pennsylvania is a John Wayne state, not a Jane Fonda state. I didn't hear any Jane Fonda there. I heard a lot of John Wayne of a different kind.

"I am an American," a line that a lot of people are afraid to say around the world today because we are so vilified because of our position in the Middle East. It's a fact. It's a claim we all want to make but it is not a popular claim to make in the world today. And he says, I want to make it a popular claim again.

He said there are life-long cynics who have joined my campaign. He talked about the judgment to send our people - our young men and women onto the battlefields that would be good to fight on, making clear that he did not believe Iraq was one of those.

I thought it was a powerful speech. This argument that his words don't matter, these are policy statements as to the kind of president he would like to be. To most Americans, the issue of Iraq sits out there. It may not always be on the front shelf, but it is there.

The war is known by every American and unpopular with most Americans. And they know it's there, and the only reason I think they don't say it's the most important thing bothering them right now is they're scared to death somebody is going to turn off the heat and kick them out of their house. Those are more urgent concerns for most people.

But it's not that the war doesn't sit there as a major policy dispute. Senator Clinton does not bring up Iraq because she doesn't want to, because it's not going to help her even in Pennsylvania.

But I thought the tone he caught there on patriotism was very powerful. He must insist on that in Pennsylvania. He also thought to poach into her territory. Everyone knows that Senator Clinton has been very effective on the stump with people with needs, people who depend on minimum wage jobs, who need health care and don't have it, who have childcare challenges they just can't meet.

And here he was doing the same thing. He was talking about people with needs tonight. I thought he was trying to say, look, I can play that as well. I can get the people's urgent needs as well as their more big-picture needs.

OLBERMANN: Very, very thorough analysis from Chris Matthews. Tom, what can you add to that?


BROKAW: Well, what I can add to that is that we begin to see in the outlines of both Senator Clinton and Senator Obama tonight what they hope will be their campaign against Senator McCain come the fall, because they now know who the Republican nominee is going to be.

Chris is right, he did emphasize more Iraq than he did economic issues. My own belief is that people are waiting to hear more from Senator Obama in these speeches about what he does have in mind for the country in terms of how he wants to resolve some of the outstanding domestic issues that do exist out there.

He continues to be the most eloquent speaker of all of these candidates and I know that, you know, in their moments of truth that both Senator McCain and Senator Clinton would probably acknowledge that. But now it moves to a new stage and it's going to become in the next - the course of the next seven weeks in the Democratic Party, a fight that my guess is, Chris, will begin to take shape along very strong lines that are formed around the issues like what we're going to do about the economy, what we're going to do about health care, what we're going to do about the energy crisis in this country, and who picks up that phone at 3:00 in the morning.

We'll be hearing more about that. Because there's some indication that that may have worked for Senator Clinton here tonight.

MATTHEWS: And, Tom, it's so - well, you know Pennsylvania well as I do. And it's a state where young people in many cases grow up and leave. It's a state where they look to New York - the people in Scranton look to New York, the people in Philadelphia may look outside there as well, maybe they'll stay in the suburbs.

But there is a sense of a longing, a sense that the state needs to get modern, it needs to catch up with the rest of the world. Its steel industry, of course, all of these endangered industries, there's so many places where you see rusted equipment. People do want to compete in the modern economic world and they know how tough it is going to be.

So Senator Clinton will appeal to their needs and their maintenance requirements, Social Security, Medicare, just meeting current needs. I think Obama has got to say, I will meet those needs and I will meet her and add to her. I will give you the future as well as a present.

BROKAW: You know that - better than I do, Chris, that it's really two states. You have the western part of Pennsylvania with Pittsburgh and the old industrial power of that part of Pennsylvania, Allegheny County. And then you have Philadelphia and a more sophisticated eastern side of the state with this great financial interest stuck as it is between New York and Washington, D.C., but with its long, very strong tradition as the birthplace of American democracy, a great cultural center down there.

So it's a difficult state to campaign in because you kind of go through some head-snapping transitions as you move from east to west across that state. When - I was a little surprised to hear you say that it's a state where people grow up and then leave. I talked to some of your friends, they said, he didn't grow up, but he did leave.

(LAUGHTER)

MATTHEWS: Oh, Tom, let me tell you one more cultural aspect, Keith, and let you get in here. You know, I was a kid in high school and I drove - we went out on a religious retreat to Redding, Pennsylvania. And you know the old Carville line about Pennsylvania is Pittsburgh and Philadelphia separated by Alabama. Well, we drove out to Redding, Pennsylvania, which is it's not like Utah, it's not that far away.

And I realized that in the juke boxes in the diners in Redding they what we called in those days country western music. And I realized I was in a different place. So there is a difference between that eastern part of the state - the southeastern part, which is so much almost - people go to the shore, they don't go to Pittsburgh.


CHRIS MATTHEWS, MSNBC ANCHOR: And Howard will get into this later. But it is a state that has Allentown looking to Philly, Scranton looking to New York, Pittsburgh looking to the Midwest, Erie looking to the Midwest. I guess the only part of the state that looks inward is Harrisburg and Altoona. The rest are looking outward.

So it is an interesting state to try to compete in. Six media markets with all the money that it takes to win that state.

KEITH OLBERMANN, MSNBC ANCHOR: And Johnstown looking over its shoulder for very inclimate weather. This is MSNBC's continuing coverage of the - it's not Super Tuesday. It's Super Duper Plus Tuesday. Texas still undecided. Senator Clinton won Ohio. That's our projection. Senator Obama the victor in Vermont. Senator Clinton the victor in Rhode Island.

Senator McCain has wrapped up the Republican nominations, statistically at least. Obviously, it will be formally adorned on him at the convention itself in St. Paul during the summer. And we're still waiting on Texas. We've heard Senator Obama speak. We've heard Senator Clinton speak and we're continuing here with our panel.

I'm joined by Chris Matthews. Tom Brokaw continues with us, and Brian Williams is back - will be back with us momentarily. There were references to momentum in the Clinton speech and to where things stood between them in terms of ball game, in terms of horse race. There was less of that, although Obama one telling line, which was, no matter what happens in Texas, we will have nearly the same delegate lead we had this morning. So we have a different prioritization of process.

MATTHEWS: That was the most subtle concession speech I have ever heard. He said we'll have nearly as many delegates.

OLBERMANN: I'm conceding but I'm still ahead.

MATTHEWS: That was very subtle. He was admitting it wasn't a great night. I think he did that right up front, fairly so.

OLBERMANN: Brian, again, we talk about things changing, and I now have something to quote. Let me just read something for you: This election will come down to delegates. Again and again, this race has shown it is voters and delegates who matter, not the pundits or the perceived momentum.

That was said by Mark Penn of the Clinton campaign way back in February 13th of 2008. I don't know where you were or what you might recall of that day, so many, many eons ago. That's how fast it moves.

BRIAN WILLIAMS, NBC NEWS ANCHOR: I will check my elaborate system of bound personal logs, Keith, and get back to you on that. I have a counter-quote before I get to my central point. The Associated Press lead tonight, as my friend Keith Olbermann has want to say, having borrowed it from me years ago, Hillary Clinton finally had a confetti night. That is the lead sentence as the AP went out for those late closing local newspapers tomorrow morning.

I want to make some brief points about media. It will be said that negative ads helped Clinton and hurt Obama in Ohio. More than that, it will be said that the Obama counter ad to this now - the famous 3:00 a.m. phone call looked so much like the original that it was, in a way, indistinguishable and that the rebuttal part of it was perhaps lost in the similar media.


And I think, you know, those people who do nothing else but write and think and talk about media will start saying this tonight and tomorrow morning. I think "Saturday Night Live" will come up as a factor, large or small. Obama actually mentioned Tina Faye on his campaign plane today. She gave that comedic, but also perhaps full throated endorsement of Hillary two weeks ago, the first show back after the strike, after a 12-week period of darkness.

And then Jim Downey (ph), the famous veteran sketch writer, delivered the debate parody this past week and Senator Clinton, who had been invited on before, by the way, and had turned down previously this season a "Saturday Night Live" appearance, accepted and came on when she needed the bump this past week for Ohio. So just throwing it out there like red meat.

MATTHEWS: Dare we repeat what Tina Faye said was the new black?

OLBERMANN: Another word that begins with the same letter as black does. Especially you, distance yourself as far as you can from that.

MATTHEWS: I thought it was interesting that Tina Faye and Amy Poehler did offer something of a help to her.

OLBERMANN: Additionally, for whatever this was worth, as you pointed out, the non -"HARDBALL" television venues, and I use a small H "HARDBALL," to be on "Saturday Night Live" and to participate.

MATTHEWS: There's Tim.

OLBERMANN: You can have a conversation with him about how that feels. But the softer environment where there is publicity, national exposure and you're a human being who can take a joke. The oldest thing, and Brian, this I'm sure this appeals to you and rang in your memory as well, the 1976 campaign, where Jimmy Carter was beating up President Ford by 33 points and lots of things happened to change that. But he got to within two at the actual election.

Among the other things that Ford did was kind of embraced Chevy Chase's humiliation of him every week, and eventually even sent his own press secretary on to host "Saturday Night Live" and to then appear by film himself on it.

WILLIAMS: You're right, Ron Neson (ph) did host the show. And let's go back a little bit further. Remember what it did for Dick Nixon to soften his appearance by doing Sock it To Me on Roland and Martin's "Laugh In."

OLBERMANN: Well, that's when the cameo was enough. You didn't have to participate in the full switch, and nobody did an impersonation necessarily of then candidate Nixon. Let's focus this away from the naval gazing of developments around the NBC Universal family and turn to our moderator of "Meet The Press," Tim Russert, to ask him how his show is going.

MATTHEWS: I think it all balances out myself, all these endorsements.


TIM RUSSERT, "MEET THE PRESS": All right, Keith, Chris. You keep saying seven weeks. Now I am imploring you, you have to start saying the next three months. This is going to go on until Puerto Rico June 7th. Remember back in February, Bloomberg News was sent this forecast of caucuses and primaries inadvertently by the Obama campaign.

It's uncanning with its accuracy. They predicted the ten victories in a row. The only one they missed was Maine. They thought Clinton would win Maine, which gave them 11 victories in a row. For tonight, this document prepared by the Obama campaign said they would lose Ohio 53-46, Rhode Island 57-42, and Texas 51-47.

They said they would win Vermont, which they did, 55-44. They say they'll win Wyoming on Saturday, Mississippi on Tuesday. They'll lose Pennsylvania 52-47. Win Guam, Indiana, North Carolina. Lose West Virginia, Kentucky. Win Oregon, Montana, South Dakota, lose Puerto Rico and they will be ahead in elected delegates.

That is the next three months all laid out. If they're as accurate as they have been for the last 15 primaries, this is a pretty good guide sheet.

OLBERMANN: That also concludes our coverage for the entire primary season right now. You're not supposed to read this script in advance.

RUSSERT: My point is, we are going to be here for three more months. Then we have to schedule Michigan and Florida as the tie breakers. Even, however, if one of those candidates wins 55-45, Obama would still probably have a lead with elected delegates. But what it does for the Clinton campaign, based on tonight's victories, they will say keep the race going. Keep the debate alive. And let's just see what happens over the next 90 days.

MATTHEWS: The only problem in that scenario, Tim, and it's probably good for this place for politics, is that these two Democrats are getting rough. And Senator Clinton, I guess we can all calibrate this in different ways, but she was a bit slow in responding to the question about the religion of her opponent, a bit slow in nailing it down, saying of course he's what he is, a Christian. No more questions to that affect. In fact, I don't think we should be bringing that up in the campaign. She didn't give that answer.

Questioning his trust factor with this 3:00 in the morning thing, which gets to trust. Who do you trust at 3:00 in the morning is a strong question to ask. This isn't an argument over full funding for Title 20 or the various kinds of health care plans, this is about who do you trust when the times are tricky in the middle of the night.

I do think, don't you, Tim, this could get very rough in Pennsylvania, if they bring that kitchen sink with them, the Clinton campaign.

RUSSERT: I think it is going to be very rough. It has been this last week and there's no indication it is in any way going to decline in its ferocity. But the Obama people believe that their elected delegate lead is something they cannot have taken away from them. And if you wind up, when all these next three months are finished, and he has more elected delegates, and she says, however, I won the big states that are necessary for a general election victory, what do you do?

MATTHEWS: Let's ask. We've got David Axelrod. He's the stop strategist with the Obama campaign. David, Tim has this bootleg copy of your delegate outlook, which apparently has held true through tonight. As much as we know, it looks to be on spot or spot-on, as the Brits say, and apparently it calls for you to win in Wyoming this Saturday, win in Mississippi next Tuesday, take a bit of a loss in Pennsylvania, and onward and upward.

Are you still confident that you're going to end up at the end of this process after Puerto Rico substantially ahead?


DAVID AXELROD, OBAMA CAMPAIGN CHIEF STRATEGIST: There's no question about it, Chris. I think that, at the end of tonight, there's not going to be any material difference in our lead. A couple of weeks ago, you may remember, Mark Penn told reporters that they were going to wipe out our delegate lead in Texas and Ohio. I don't think that they put a dent in our lead when this all nets out tonight. And now there are 370 fewer delegates to be chosen.

I feel very good about where we are. I think the math is very, very clear and that Senator Obama, having won 28 contests to their 13, having won a majority of the popular vote, having won 160 or so more delegates to date, and having put together a huge coalition, swelled the ranks of the party, brought young people, Republicans and independents in, has demonstrated why he should be the nominee, and I think the party will embrace him. And I think it's going to happen before Denver.

MATTHEWS: Let me ask you about elitism. In these earlier contests, I was noticing that almost 60 percent in some cases of the Democratic participants had four years of college behind them. That's a highly out of sync figure. Most people would say 30 percent of the country with four years of college. The primaries today in Ohio and Texas had a more representative sample of four years of college and people who don't have it.

Are you worried as we get closer to a typical Democratic setting, a better sample of the Democratic party, more working people, less people with four years of college, that you're losing?

AXELROD: No, I'm not worried about that at all. If we look back at Wisconsin, we did very well with non-college educated voters, as we have in other places. So I'm not concerned about that, Chris. I think that we've done very well and I think will end up doing very well here in Texas when all the votes are counted, and certainly when all the delegates are counted.

So we'll have had a good day today on a day when the Clinton campaign said they were going to catch up. I also noticed that in those exit polls people, by a fairly wide margin, people had a pretty sour feeling about the kind of campaigning that - the kitchen sink campaigning that was done here. I think that catches up with you too.

So we feel good about where we're going. People want change in this country. I think they see Obama as the person who can bring that change. They don't want the same old thing, including the kitchen sink strategies that have mired us in the mess we're in in Washington. We're on track to be where we need to be.

OLBERMANN: David, certainly there, as you mentioned about the kitchen sink strategy, there's not going to be - going on to Pennsylvania, there's no indication that Senator Clinton has any intent other than to see it through at least that stage. Nothing happened today to make her think in those terms or even express the slightest doubt. Is there any reason for you to expect that there will not be a continued and perhaps escalation of the kitchen sink strategy? And at what point does that become pyrric for both candidates and split the Democratic party?

AXELROD: I don't know. Senator Clinton back in Iowa, when she announced her first wave of negatives, said this is the fun part of campaigning. And we don't necessarily consider that the fun part of campaigning. But we're willing to join the debate and we're not going to allow ourselves to be mischaracterized. We're not going to let our positions be twisted and we're going to be tough in response.

But we're going to do it in our own way and in keeping with the kind of campaign that we've run to date, that has captured a majority of voters of the 25 million who voted so far.

OLBERMANN: Should she get out tonight?

AXELROD: Look, I would never presume to tell anyone to get in or out of the race. Here's what I know; Barack Obama has a very, very substantial lead among delegates. At one point, their campaign said well, if someone had a 150 to 200 delegate lead, that would be a substantial lead. We have that lead. Time is running out.


I think we've got great prospects in the upcoming primaries and caucuses. I think we're going to add to that total. And so, you know, I think she has to assess what the purpose is of continuing and what the cost is of running the kind of campaign that could damage the party and damage our chances in the fall. But that's a decision she's going to have to make. I can't make that decision for her and I don't think anybody else can either.

MATTHEWS: David, what did you think of Senator Clinton's response to Steve Kroft's question on "60 Minutes" the other night about the religion of your candidate?

AXELROD: I was surprised, you know, because I know they've been in prayer breakfasts together in Washington. She knows very well that he's a Christian, that he's belonged to United Church of Christ Church in Chicago for almost 20 years. She knows all of that. I was disappointed that she answered the way she did or at least bewildered by it.

But I leave it to them to explain what she meant.

MATTHEWS: Do you think she's pushing the notion he may be a Muslim?

AXELROD: Well, I'm not going to climb into Senator Clinton's head and try and define what her motives are. All I know is that she knows very well that he's a devout Christian and I would think she would have spoken up unequivocally about that in that interview.

MATTHEWS: OK, David Axlerod, top strategist for the Obama campaign, thank you, sir, for coming with us tonight.

OLBERMANN: Coming up, the race in Texas still too close to call. We'll look at what's going on in that race with political director Chuck, it's too close to call and then it suddenly changes, Todd. MSNBC's Decision 2008 coverage continues after this.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. HILLARY CLINTON (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I know what they say, as Ohio goes, so goes the nation. Well, this nation is coming back and so is this campaign.

(END VIDEO CLIP)


OLBERMANN: Senator Hillary Clinton of New York victorious in Ohio tonight. While in Texas, the race between Senator Clinton and Senator Barack Obama of Illinois is still, say it with us now, too close to call. For more on what's going on in Texas and how this night might end up in the delegate count, we're joined once again by NBC News political director Chuck Todd, who does this by the numbers. Chuck, give it to us again. Why is it too close to call in Texas?

CHUCK TODD, NBC NEWS POLITICAL DIRECTOR: First, let's get some delegate numbers and math out of the way. We told you earlier that 64 percent magic number for Vermont. Obama missed it, so he only netted three out of Vermont. Guess what? Hillary Clinton is going to net at least three out of Rhode Island. We got a wash.

That means Ohio and Texas are where any delegates can be gained either one. Obviously, the victory in Ohio for Clinton, she's likely to gain five to nine delegates. That nine is the maximum that she would probably get. It's probably going to be five to seven, depending on how long the provisional ballots take. Trust me, the Obama campaign is going to try to get every provisional ballot counted, because they believe they might be able to pick up a delegate here or there, maybe in the 11th Congressional District, maybe in the 15th Congressional District.

So they'll be fighting for these provisional ballots for individual delegates. It looks like the total haul, a conservative estimate from the Clinton campaign is going to be in that single digit number. Just save that five to nine there.

Then let's move to the crazy Texas thing. Looks like Clinton is holding this lead, 50-48. Even if it holds, I've told you how all these border counties down here in Texas, where she's doing well, they're not giving her squat when it comes to delegates. Where Obama did really well in Dallas, in Houston, in Austin, that's where the delegate numbers were. There's a chance that Obama could erase a lot of that five to nine-delegate game from Ohio just in the first part of the primary, that he at least might net three or four delegates out of it, cut it in half.

And then there's the Texas caucus. Frankly, we don't know when we're going to get the Texas caucus information. We think - we think we'll get it by the time the Wyoming caucuses are held on Saturday. Maybe the Mississippi primary next Tuesday. We can report also on the Texas caucuses. But in that respect, he's likely to pick up more delegates there.

So in about a week, the Obama people are going to say, wait a minute, we may have lost three or four states, but we might have actually won the night on delegates. But that doesn't matter, Hillary Clinton declared the victory. So it is important when you declare victory sometimes, because the delegate math eventually may end up in Obama's favor tonight. But we're not going to know for sure for a few days.

OLBERMANN: So when, Chuck - we say it's too close to call in Texas, it's actually worse than that. Not only is it too close to call, but when it is called, the winner may not win.

TODD: That's the frustrating thing. We joked about this, what color do we make Texas? If she wins the popular vote and he wins the delegate haul, what color do you make it? Which blue do we use? Do we just blend the blue together? Do we stripe it? We had this happen in Nevada, where she won the caucuses and sort of the popular vote in Nevada, and he got more delegates out of it.

Our math, we went ahead and gave it to her. I assume the way our map will turn colors will give it to her. frankly, the AP headline tomorrow, the "New York Times" headlines would be she won three of four states tonight, worry about the delegate math later. But we have to get now more into this delegate math, and more intricate in figuring it out.

OLBERMANN: Chuck Todd, once again, I think we have broken the Chuck speaks and it's too close to call.

TODD: Thank goodness. We're waiting on all these big counties, but there's also a whole bunch of border counties that take forever to come in. I've watched a lot of House races take three and four days to be decided in the border counties, the 23rd Congressional District being one. We've done this multiple cycles in a row. So it could be a very long night.


OLBERMANN: We'll be waiting here throughout. And in the interim, we'll all be looking up to you. Thank you kindly, Chuck.

MATTHEWS: Let's check back with the panel, now featuring, led by Norah O'Donnell of MSNBC.

NORAH O'DONNELL, MSNBC ANCHOR: Chris and Keith, to borrow from Keith Olbermann, who borrowed from Brian Williams, I'm going to read from the Associated Press. Dateline Washington, Hillary Rodham Clinton showed renewed strength Tuesday in Texas and Ohio among whites and working class voters, who had begun deserting her campaign in recent contests.

Howard, did we see today that Hillary Clinton did well because she regained her base?

HOWARD FINEMAN, "NEWSWEEK": The same AP said she was a faltering candidate only a few weeks ago. It is really remarkable. I think the main reason is that she has made herself the meat and potatoes candidate, with white voters in Ohio, with Hispanic voters in Texas. She's talking, as Chris said about the present, not the future, about health care for all, about help with your mortgages, about the economy. And as the recession fears grow and the recession itself deepens, that plays to her strength.

Don't forget, Obama started out as an anti-war candidate, as a movement candidate, as a process candidate. The other thing, from talking to one of Obama's top strategists, even though David Axlerod said, I like where we are; behind the scenes they're not happy, because it's clear that the red phone ad in Texas and the attacks that Hillary mounted on the NAFTA trade issue had an effect. And you're going to see Hillary double down on those in the events to come.

O'DONNELL: What about, Rachel, the theme that we saw resonated, that change was more important than experience in all of these contests. Important again today, but it's narrowed. It was 20 points in Ohio, 15 points in Texas, change over experience. In the past contest, it's been a margin of like 30 points. Experience is moving up and she wins when people vote on experience.

RACHEL MADDOW, AIR AMERICA RADIO: Sure, and she's made very controversial comments praising her own experience alongside John McCain's experience, as a way of denigrating Barack Obama. I mean, the big thing that I think is happening right now is that Hillary Clinton is running as the anti-Barack Obama candidate. Barack Obama is just now starting to position himself as the anti-John McCain candidate. They're fighting two different battles.

I actually think the battle that Obama is fighting is just starting to with this speech tonight, is probably going to be a more potent battle in terms of what it says about his electability. Clinton seems to have no interest in turning away from the attacks she's waged against her Democratic opponent.

O'DONNELL: Gene, did Barack Obama lose control of the message in the past week? Or did his campaign predict all along, as Tim Russert was reporting, they didn't think they were going to win in Ohio and Texas. They predicted that a long time ago.

EUGENE ROBINSON, "THE WASHINGTON POST": Right, so they predicted that a long time ago, but did they want to win in Ohio? Yes. Do they still hold out hope of winning in Texas? Yes. They want to win. It seemed like he was playing defense, and I think that was - you know, as they look back on this period, they will see Hillary Clinton kind of dominating the news cycle, and determining the direction of the new story and the conversation, and making it about his perceived weaknesses and not her perceived weaknesses, making it about him, not -

O'DONNELL: She said tonight - Hillary Clinton said tonight, we are going all the way.


ROBINSON: And I believe her. I believe her now. I believe they are going all the way.

MADDOW: I believed John Edwards when he said it, too. I always believe it.

FINEMAN: Here's what this Obama person I was talking to said; the mistake we made was not keeping the focus on Hillary Rodham Clinton. Yes, you have to get to the general election, but not yet. This happened to Obama after Iowa and he took a victory lap after Iowa. It happened after South Carolina. Obama wants to make it a dignified general election debate with the Republican nominee about the big issues. He had to keep his foot on Hillary's neck and he didn't do it.

MADDOW: When you're throwing punches, you're the subject of the news stories. When you're throwing punches, whether or not they were untoward or unseemly or well appreciated, if you are on the attack, you look like a fighter.

FINEMAN: And Obama didn't want to be that guy.

O'DONNELL: We saw a large number of voters tonight who said they made up their mind in the last week. Clinton won those voters disproportionately. Nearly six in 10 voters who recently made their choice were supporting Clinton in Texas, the same as in Ohio. So those that made up their minds in the last week, was it because of the red phone ad, was it because of the questions about NAFTA and Obama's support, whether it was a wink and a nod to Canada?

ROBINSON: Any and all of the above. I think it was because she kind of had control of the news cycle and of the direction and tenor of the conversation. But, you know, I do think Obama makes a mistake if he pivots entirely to face John McCain, because the fight in front of him right now is Hillary Clinton.

FINEMAN: That was the fight in front of him last week and he lost sight of it.

MADDOW: The problem is Barack Obama is not fighting. Barack Obama is rising above the fray. It doesn't actually matter which fray he fights, but if he decides to go tit for tat with Hillary Clinton, all it's going to do is suppress Democratic exuberance even further.

ROBINSON: I agree he has to find the Obama way to do that. But my point is that he can't ignore the fact that what the Clintons are doing is fighting the battle that's in front of you right now, and worry about the next one later. And so if they tear down Barack Obama and tick a lot of people off, we'll fix that later.

FINEMAN: I don't think there's much danger of the Democrats losing their exuberance. The turnout of Democrats is remarkable and don't forget that "Washington Post" poll that came out today that said two to one or three to one, Democrats want the race to continue. They want this campaign to continue. I found that a fascinating poll number.

MADDOW: But what you've seen since Wisconsin is that the tone has changed so that now the effect of the Democratic contest is to characterize one of their likely nominees as untrustworthy and as weak on national security. That's bad for the Democrats in November. If they pivot and fight McCain, they look like fighters and don't suffer...


FINEMAN: Rachel, they're Democrats. That's what Democrats do.

MADDOW: Democrats will not be doing it to themselves.

(CROSSTALK)

ROBINSON: How much is all this costing? I mean, you know, is this the best use of all this money?

O'DONNELL: Well, what do you think Howard Dean was thinking tonight when he heard Hillary Clinton say we're going all the way? Yeow!

(LAUGHTER)

FINEMAN: I think Howard Dean is just hanging on by the side of the car. You know, he's just going along for the ride.

O'DONNELL: Party leaders are worried about that.

All right. Rachel, Howard and Gene, thank you so much.

And we are going to take it to a break. We'll have more right after this.

OLBERMANN: Well, no, not exactly. What we meant by that was that you had to break for a second because I'm going to come back to you, Norah, and ask the panel a question for something that happened while you were talking.

And I should mention that some of the polls in the Houston area have closed only within the last half an hour, to talk about Democratic exuberance in Texas. But now here's the development.


It is a total mystery, and you can just go to town on this. All we have on this is from our embed with the Clinton campaign in Ohio, who was just told by the Clinton campaign that Obama called Clinton. Not he called her something, he phoned her, they were in contact tonight.

Norah, do you want to ask the panel what the heck that could have been about?

O'DONNELL: Keith, thank you.

OLBERMANN: You're welcome.

O'DONNELL: Panel?

(LAUGHTER)

MADDOW: I'm surprised he didn't wait until 3:00 a.m.

O'DONNELL: Usually the person who is...

(LAUGHTER)

MADDOW: I just wanted to see if you answered the phone. I was afraid you wouldn't answer the phone!

O'DONNELL: That may be the best line of the night by Rachel.

OLBERMANN: Yes, it is.


O'DONNELL: Usually that person who is conceding calls the victor.

FINEMAN: Well, I thought the body language of the back-to-back speeches was interesting. Hillary, of course, did not stop to congratulate Obama on his victory in Vermont. She didn't even mention him as far as I can remember, whereas...

O'DONNELL: Well, Obama did not...

FINEMAN: Well, but Obama was gracious and said we want to congratulate Hillary Clinton on her hard-fought victories in Rhode Island and Ohio. I mean, this is the way Obama wants to be. His campaign has been tough, some of the ads have been very nasty, but Obama himself wants to project the image that he thinks is real and that most people who know him think is who he is, which is that he wants to fight in a gentlemanly way.

So he wanted to congratulate her. I think he wants to tell her, look, this is going to be a long road. And whoever is going to win the nomination has to win it in a way that salvages the Democrats' chance in the fall. And that's what they're talking to each other about, whether - or whatever it was they said to each other, the nice words I'm imagining they said to each other, whether they can actually honor them is another question.

O'DONNELL: All right. Thank you.

And now I'm going to toss it back to Keith - Keith.

OLBERMANN: And the panel staying with us, Norah.

(LAUGHTER)

OLBERMANN: When we return, a crosser look at the Latino vote in Texas as we wait for a result in a race there that is too close to call.

This is MSNBC's "Decision 2008" coverage.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)


MATTHEWS: Well, the race in Texas remains too close to call between Senator Clinton and Senator Obama.

Joining us now is Maria Teresa Petersen, the executive director of Voto Latino.

I'm looking at the numbers, Maria Teresa, and look at these numbers, 63-35, Senator Clinton won the Latino vote. It's about 30 percent of Texas. Obviously a hugely important part of the electorate down there.

Tell me what you thought in terms of expectations.

MARIA TERESA PETERSEN, VOTO LATINO: Well, I think it goes down - exactly down a generational divide, Chris. What we're finding is that 33 percent of the Latino vote was under 30, and I think that's what it's demonstrating right then and there.

MATTHEWS: And how did they go?

PETERSEN: And they went for Barack under 30. Over 30, they went overwhelmingly for Hillary.

And I think, again, it's a microcosm of the rest of the state. I think what we're going to find is, at the end of the day, the Latino vote is the new soccer moms of the Clinton generation, only this time it's for the 2008 election.

MATTHEWS: Well, you know, the whole question of youth versus age depends on where the line is drawn. Of course, Saturday Night Live's joke was that Hillary Clinton could brag that she got women over 85, but, in fact, I've looked at this line and it moves. And where Senator Clinton wins, it's when the line is low. And you point it out.

What is the demarcation point?

PETERSEN: Under 30.

MATTHEWS: Well, that's not a good success for Barack Obama, to only get the voters under 30, is it?


PETERSEN: Well, I think what it's saying is he has - you know, he's resonating with this - with this demographic. Not unusual for the youth vote.

Now, what we have to keep in mind is that the folks that are watching this race very closely, we keep talking about Barack and Hillary. McCain is starting to watch the Latino vote, recognizing again, that they're the ones that are going to be the swing vote. So there's a lot of - you know, a lot of the missteps that folks are taking now are going to be definitely lessons learned for moving forward.

MATTHEWS: Is he a Republican who is seen as good on immigration issues?

PETERSEN: He is. And like I said before, he has courted the Latino leadership in the past. However, because the immigration conversation has become so caustic, that increasingly, Latinos are associating anti-immigration, anti-Latino bashing with the Republican Party.

MATTHEWS: Let me ask you about Hillary and Obama.

You said that there's a dividing point of 30 years old, that people under that vote for Barack Obama. I believe we crossed the border. I was looking at the numbers in Ohio and Texas today. For most communities - in fact, overall - that dividing line is about age 50.

So that means that the Latinos aren't quite as susceptible to age politics as other communities. Is that right?

PETERSEN: I would agree. I think we have to look more closely at the exit polls, but I would agree.

Also, I think Chuck had mentioned it earlier. Barack did everything right in the fact as far as, you know, going into Houston, going into Austin and going to Dallas. And Hillary did everything right, saying, OK, you have those strongholds, I'm going to go everywhere else.

MATTHEWS: Well, let me ask you about the results then. We haven't gotten an official call yet from our network. It's up in the air right now. We may have one the next couple of hours, we may have one in 15 minutes, for all I know, but it's still up in the air.

Will the Latino vote will be as decisive do you think in Texas as it was in California? I mean, a lot of people believe that Hillary Clinton's victory in California, again, where you had 30 percent of the Democratic vote being Latino, was, to a large extent, a result of her very successful cultivation of that community, of your community.

PETERSEN: I think you hit the nail on the head. I think that's exactly what's going to happen. I mean, 2-1, Latinos are going for Hillary. And she's been able to maintain that lead and hasn't been able to shrink. So...


MATTHEWS: Talk the tough part here - black-brown dispute, is there one?

PETERSEN: No. I mean, again, this is - I think the best example that I always like to use is when Barack ran himself for, you know, Bobby Rush's district, you know, a couple of years back. He won more of the Latino vote than he won the African-American vote.

Fast forward, when he ran for Senate, he ran against a Latino developer, Jerry Chico (ph). He won the Latino vote against a Latino candidate. So, now, it's a matter of what are the issues? That's what resonates with the community, Chris.

MATTHEWS: God. You're saying that being Latino is not good enough. I mean, that is an astounding statistic. Was this guy a weak candidate or what?

PETERSEN: Well, no. He had definitely establishment in D.C., so I think it was more of a matter of, again, resonating with the community. What are the issues? That's what's going to be decisive for the Latino vote.

MATTHEWS: Would the Latino community come through for Barack if he is the nominee? That's the big question. Will they come through in the general if they don't have Hillary around as a buffer?

PETERSEN: Well, I think, again, what's interesting - we'll go back to the Latino youth vote. Five out of six Latino youth that were asked if they were to come out against Hillary or McCain, they actually said that they wouldn't come to the polls. However, they overwhelmingly said that if Barack was the nominee, they definitely would.

MATTHEWS: OK. Thank you.

PETERSEN: Thank you, Chris.

MATTHEWS: Keith?

OLBERMANN: As Texas continues to move on without a verdict, without an outcome, there is one other number that we can give you that pertains to the Clinton campaign, and it's about tomorrow morning.

"The Today Show," "Good Morning America," "The Early Show," "American Morning," "Fox & Friends" and "Morning Joe" each will feature - well, I hope they won't, any of them, call it an exclusive interview, but each will feature an interview with Senator Hillary Clinton.


Media friendliness is picking up at all corners of this race. Six appearances tomorrow from Washington for Senator Clinton. And we'll see, maybe she'll have Texas to talk about by that point and maybe she will not.

And we're going to continue not on that point, because that really didn't go that very far, did it, with the panel and Norah O'Donnell.

You got something better than tomorrow morning's schedule? I've got some trains and buses I can announce as they arrive through the area.

O'DONNELL: No. But listen, Keith, the people that are watching us now are probably not going to be up watching "The Today Show" at 7:00 a.m.

OLBERMANN: That's why I said it, because I'm trying to provide that public service for those who will miss all those programs.

O'DONNELL: Absolutely.

And what is noteworthy about that is what people forget, is that Hillary Clinton is flying back to Washington tonight and then will get up early. I mean, these candidates are working so hard.

And Hillary Clinton is fighting tooth and nail for this nomination, Gene, and she has been tenacious over the past week.

ROBINSON: Right. There does seem to be this second wind in the Clinton campaign. I'm not sure if she ever completely lost it. But, you know, Ohio is a big, important state.

I'm still not sure what's going to happen in Texas. There's still enough votes, it looks to me, left to count in the Houston area that could tip it either way. So I can understand why we're not calling it.

(CROSSTALK)

ROBINSON: I do think it could go either way. But clearly, there's - I mean, all morning shows, what's left of her could be a good precedent.


FINEMAN: If I were the Clinton campaign - I mean, excuse me, the Obama campaign - I would not assume as Tim Russert's spreadsheet said that Pennsylvania is a goner for Obama. There's a lot of time.

And unlike some of these other states, with seven weeks between now and the Pennsylvania primary on April 22nd, Obama has a chance to really introduce himself and explain himself from the ground up to the people of Pennsylvania in a way that he really didn't have a chance to do despite all of his money in Ohio and Texas. And Pennsylvania is changing and has changed.

In my hometown of Pittsburgh, there isn't a single steel mill. It's a big college town today. It's a big health care town today. It's not what it was.

A lot of the Rust Belt is gone. That's true in southeastern Pennsylvania, around Philadelphia.

It's true that there is still Alabama in between. But Obama has to go to that Alabama, and he can sell himself in that Alabama. And the expectations for Hillary are so high there, are so set in stone, that the only way it seems to me he can convincingly stop her campaign is by really making an effort and pulling off a victory for that state. I'm not trying to set the bar high for him, I have no dog in this fight. I'm just saying that's what he needs to do with seven weeks to go.

The state has changed a lot and that's what he's got to try to bring off. It's...

MADDOW: Well, and we don't go straight there though. We do go to Wyoming and Mississippi.

FINEMAN: Sure. Well, he's going to pick up - and he's going to win Wyoming and he's going to Mississippi, probably. So he's going to pick up a little bit of momentum. But this assumption that Pennsylvania is over with, I don't buy. The state has changed a lot and he can bring it to further change by making a real race there.

MADDOW: The one thing that will be interesting in Pennsylvania, just briefly, is that it will be a real test of the received wisdom in this campaign that any place with a traditional Democratic machine benefits Clinton. We started to see a shift away from that as superdelegates started peeling off and heading toward Obama. That may now be in flux, and Pennsylvania may be the measure of whether or not that political common wisdom ought to hold.

O'DONNELL: What about the stat that David Axlerod just spoke with Chris and Keith about? Obama, 28 states; Clinton 13 states. We're waiting for Texas. Hopefully at any time now we could get the results from Texas.

Obama still ahead in the popular vote. She could win the next 16 states and Obama could still win the delegate math.

FINEMAN: Well, that's true. By the way, in terms of popular vote, it's not like it's a blowout.


O'DONNELL: Yes.

FINEMAN: If I'm not mistaken, Obama is ahead by a few hundred thousand votes in the popular vote out of 25 million cast.

ROBINSON: It's very close.

FINEMAN: I mean, he picked up a lot of states with not a lot of people in them. So that's true.

It's pretty darn close. And if you were Hillary Clinton and you were behind by only 150 delegates, and you need 2,025 to win, and you've won all these big industrial states, why would you get out of the race?

I mean, and having won Rhode Island, having won Ohio, and possibly having won Texas, you know, what was going to be a meeting in Washington tomorrow where they were going to consider whether to get out of the race now becomes a meeting about how to plan the rest of the campaign...

ROBINSON: A re-launch.

FINEMAN:... right up through the convention. And all the tumult that was going to happen in the campaign - you know, Mark Penn on the outs, all this other stuff, is going to be forgotten as they figure out how to go from here to there.

O'DONNELL: And so does it make it all the more likely that we may hear from Al Gore, from Nancy Pelosi, from Joe Biden, from Bill Richardson, form any of these other...

(CROSSTALK)

ROBINSON: At this point, less likely. Because I don't think that matters at this point.

I don't think there's a reason for - certainly for - there's no reason for Obama to pull out. He's leading. He's winning.


FINEMAN: Yes.

ROBINSON: And he's going to go into the convention with the most pledged delegates.

FINEMAN: And he's going to have the most pledged delegates. Yes.

ROBINSON: If there's no reason for her to pull out, then we are marching to Puerto Rico.

O'DONNELL: All right.

MADDOW: If there's a vote for the party elders here...

(CROSSTALK)

O'DONNELL: All right. We've got to send it back to Keith.

OLBERMANN: Panel, we're calling Texas.

NBC News is projecting Hillary Clinton as the winner in the Democratic primary in the state of Texas in a hard-fought battle. This is from a conclusion based on what is now 74 percent of the vote reporting and a three percent margin.

Hillary Clinton projected as the winner in both Texas and Ohio tonight. And so the victory speech was by no stretch of the imagination premature, nor if this projection holds was it going to be contradicted by anything later on in the evening - Chris.

MATTHEWS: Three out of four tonight. We talked about that earlier tonight on our program.


Three out of four was the way it was drifting during the day. We kept getting reports - not from exit polling, just from a lot of the polling done right up to the edge of the voting today.

There was a drift over the weekend. Hillary Clinton does very well from Sunday to Tuesday. There's something that goes on. I don't call it buyer's remorse.

Again, unless you bought it, you can't have remorse. But as people are going down to make that final decision where to vote, Hillary Clinton does get some pushback against Obama. And that's apparently what happened here.

OLBERMANN: All right. Tim Russert is back with us.

Assess Texas, and why now, and what the implications are, and how changed this playing field comes by the fact that Senator Clinton managed to reclaim these two areas that were suddenly up for grabs.

RUSSERT: She will say her - her campaign, Keith, will say that they have won the night. This will be a huge psychological boost.

It will help them with their donors, with campaign morale. They'll win the public relations battle with the headline: "Clinton Wins Three of the Four."

The Obama people will counter, saying, excuse us, how many delegates did she win? And if you watch the caucus results that you're seeing on your screen from Texas, you will see that Obama is doing quite well amongst those caucused delegates.

Watch for the Clinton people tomorrow, Keith, to say, you see, this is the difference between a primary and a caucus. When the people vote, we win. When you have one of these caucuses with all these kinds of rules, he wins.

I believe that they will keep trying to underscore that, trying to belittle, in effect, caucus victories. Again, appealing to this jury of superdelegates, because the Clinton people know that they will not be able to catch Barack Obama with elected delegates over the next 90 days. They need some outside factor to intervene, to make their case, their appeal, their closing argument to the superdelegates.

OLBERMANN: And what is that?

RUSSERT: Well, they will say tonight that they won Texas and Ohio. They won California, New York, Massachusetts, New Jersey. All the big states that someone has to win if they want to be elected president of the United States as a Democrat.


Then they will try to play Michigan and Florida. And that's when the real battle starts. That is what it's all about.

I believe the chairman of the Democratic Party, Howard Dean, will now have to intervene in a big way and figure something out about Florida and Michigan, because those two states have become critical. And if there's doing to be do-overs, they have to be scheduled now so people have adequate time to prepare campaigns and budgets and strategy, because it is clear after these three wins tonight that Hillary Clinton is not going to get out of this race, and not going to abandon it at any time.

I think it goes, as I said earlier, far beyond Pennsylvania, because Barack Obama is not going to abandon it just because she won three out of four. He's going to say, I won 11 in a row, and I'm ahead in elected delegates, and until you take the elected delegate count away from me, I'm going to be the nominee.

MATTHEWS: And this is how tough it gets, Tim. Terry McAuliffe was on tonight, and he would not allow us to believe that in any way the Clintons have committed themselves to letting the candidate with the most elected delegates win this thing. They reserve the right to win this with superdelegates, Tim.

RUSSERT: Absolutely. They will say that each of these candidates needs to get superdelegates to put them over the top. They will not say whoever has the most elected delegates.

MATTHEWS: Right.

RUSSERT: And that's, Chris, why Hillary Clinton tonight, when she did her litany of states, Michigan and Florida.

OLBERMANN: And Michigan and Florida, do you think, Tim, that Ed Rendell was freelancing, freebooting, when he said, you know, we're going to have - we're assuming primaries in June in those two states, or was that something that was sort of let slip from the equivalent of the smoke-filled rooms of 2008?

RUSSERT: Great question. I don't know.

The official position of the Clinton campaign is there's no need for do-overs. But when you hear Governor Crist of Florida saying that the state may be willing to pay for a primary in Florida - and the cost is about $10 million from the estimates I've heard. Michigan is not going to allow Florida to go forward without them doing something. I think the pressure is going to grow considerably to have some kind of do-over in those two states.

OLBERMANN: There is contrarian thinking to those of us who have suggested that seven weeks until Pennsylvania and a kind of - somebody else used the term knife fight, a seven-week-long knife fight between now and then would be a disaster for the Democratic Party. There's another line of thinking that suggests that period of time, which is now - has now begun, is, in fact, a good thing for the Democratic Party because it could in some respects wipe John McCain off the map until the end of April because this will be the political story.

RUSSERT: Counter-programming. But what kind of programming is it, Keith?


OLBERMANN: Exactly.

RUSSERT: I do think that Obama will win Wyoming on Saturday and Mississippi on Tuesday, which will increase his delegate count. And I'm watching carefully these Texas caucus delegates, because he actually, in terms of tonight, we don't know who's going to emerge with more delegates, putting in the four states together. But if the campaign - the tone of the campaign between now and Pennsylvania is similar to the last 10 days, it is going to be, I think, a very divisive one for the Democratic Party.

Barack Obama has been resisting trying to involve tit for tat. However, you heard David Axlerod in your interview saying, we'll respond and we'll respond firmly in our own way. But they clearly believe that based on these results tonight, that if "throwing the kitchen sink" is going to bring results, they need a strategy to counter that.

And if it means that he has to change his campaign method somewhat, so be it. And still try to protect his image as someone who is willing - be willing to be above politics as usual. It's a very delicate tightrope to walk.

OLBERMANN: A race to Home Depot for the kitchen sink sales.

MATTHEWS: We're looking at a race in Pennsylvania, Tim, in seven weeks which amounts to a statewide race, a gubernatorial or a Senate race. I've heard figures like $30 million. I mean, they can go in there, both of these candidates, and really burn some money, can't they?

RUSSERT: Huge amounts of money. The number is anywhere between $25 million and $35 million. And it's money that both campaigns would acknowledge they would be better off spending trying to define John McCain than each other. But they're not going to have that choice after tonight.

Pennsylvania, as we also know, is a closed primary. Democrats only. And that's why Hillary Clinton is feeling so confident about it.

But Barack Obama has to make a very strong campaign in Pennsylvania. He has to go all out. If nothing else, to keep the margin close.

Those numbers I read to you earlier, they sense that they may come up short. But he has to keep his delegate lead, because if he ever loses his elected delegate lead by allowing Hillary Clinton to have a blowout in any of these states, then he really does, I think, lose a huge claim on the nomination.

He wants to go in, after these primaries are over, Chris and Keith, saying, I won elected delegates, I won more states, I won the popular vote. How can you possibly take this nomination away from me?

MATTHEWS: This promises to be like Pennsylvania was back in 1980, Tim. I must say, it looks like Kennedy and Carter again, it looks like another nail-biter, heavily contested, lots of money spent, lots of TV as that are going to be lethal-style ads, very nasty ads going into that April 22nd fight, don't you think?


RUSSERT: Oh, you know, it's a state that is, with Philadelphia and Pittsburgh and Scranton, different cultures, different voting blocs, different demographics. Huge media interest spilling over into the New York City media markets as well.

I mean, it's going to be extraordinary. And the key is, Chris, the Clinton people will try to say Pennsylvania is the state. That's it, nothing else counts.

Watch the Obama people say, wait a minute, don't sell Wyoming, Mississippi, North Carolina. Don't sell those states short because they all have delegates, and delegates nominate.

OLBERMANN: Tim Russert, thanks kindly.

That concludes this hour.

Our MSNBC coverage continues.

For Chris Matthews, I'm Keith Olbermann. We're continuing next.

KEITH OLBERMANN, MSNBC CORRESPONDENT: Voter night is at an end. Vermont, Ohio, Texas and Rhode Island, big wins at least in terms of the total vote count for Hillary Clinton and of course for John McCain, who is now the presumptive nominee of the Republican Party. Hillary Clinton after an 0 and 11 streak that stretched to 0 and 12 tonight. The projected winner in Texas in what would be presumably an extraordinarily close combination of a primary and a caucus. Clinton the winner among the Democrats in Texas.

Earlier in the evening, Ohio was called for Hillary Clinton. A tough fought race that was in double digits in the real numbers at last count. Rhode Island, earlier in the night another victory for Hillary Clinton. Three out of four Rhode Island projected for Clinton of New York. The one Obama victory was the first declared of the night, a handy victory in a state in which the voters said Iraq and the economy were virtually tied for number one issue for them. Vermont to Obama.

And among the Republicans, all four of the votes tonight, Vermont, Ohio, Texas and Rhode Island going to Senator McCain. Governor Huckabee of Arkansas acknowledged that Senator McCain had all the delegates he needed, well over 1,200 to guarantee himself the Republic nomination at their convention in St. Paul this summer and he gave a speech essentially conceding. Senator McCain gave a speech, thanking Governor Huckabee and others in the Republican Party and received phone calls from both Senators Obama and Clinton congratulating him on becoming officially the Republican nominee and then gave a speech congratulating himself for doing that as well. We continue at MSNBC and NBC News world headquarters in New York. I didn't mean to insult Senator McCain that way, but he did congratulate himself and it was well earned. Chris Matthews there and Keith Olbermann here and obviously the story is Hillary Clinton, a huge three for four night.

CHRIS MATTHEWS, MSNBC CORRESPONDENT: Three for four. I thought it was interesting. They both took the opportunity to address the American people and these nights when we have primary results are a chance for them to talk to so many more people than they normally could. I thought it was interesting that Senator Clinton was very tactical. She said I'm staying in this race so that the people from Pennsylvania and other subsequent states can be heard from. She became almost a tribune of those people saying I will fight for your right to be heard. They shall be heard. We want their turn. They want they turn.

On the other hand, Obama, Senator Obama when he got his chance tonight was as always, rather lofty, but he spoke about something I hadn't heard before, maybe you, about his goal of restoring the popularity if you will of the phrase, I am an American in the world. That we can walk around the world, travel around the world with a general positive acceptance of our country. And not this hostility that has been stirred up a bit by the war in Iraq and other foreign policy judgments. I did think that was an interesting dichotomy very particular with Senator Clinton, very grand with Obama.


OLBERMANN: Yeah. And the, referring, defining the change that he said he represented or intended to represent as in fact the rehabilitation of America's position abroad, its reputation abroad, certainly was a new sort of splitting of what that is. The statement for change has been there. It has not been extraordinarily and precisely defined. And here was one that sort of came out of left field but resonated pretty well. The speeches were so extraordinarily dissimilar though because Hillary Clinton took the opportunity to mention 3:00 a.m. again, made the reference to that phone call, that famous or infamous or we're sick of it phone call, depending on your point of view. Tried to parody Senator Obama's yes we can chant. There was a yes we will chant started during her speech in Ohio.

MATTHEWS: And that's a nice (INAUDIBLE)

OLBERMANN: And just to round it out, she yelled out the names of the states that we're still going to have to go through starting in Pennsylvania, highlighted in Pennsylvania, just as Howard Dean did with a little bit better results presumably.

MATTHEWS: A kudo Keith is in order for one of our panelists tonight. Rachel Maddow (ph), because Rachel Maddow had the greatest line of the night. She said that Barack Obama, when did he make his call. He should have made it at 3:00 a.m. so that we could see if it did go to seven rings or not on her cell phone. I think that will go down, hopefully some brilliant blogger will make that into history for us. There she is. Receiving the kudo.

OLBERMANN: Hello. You've reached Senator Clinton's voice mail. She can't come to the phone right now. Chuck Todd is always available to come to the phone. With Hillary Clinton's victories tonight, where do we go from here? He is of course, our political director, MSNBC and NBC News. Chuck joins us once again. Chuck, good evening and good morning.

CHUCK TODD, MSNBC CORRESPONDENT: Ring, ring, hello. We're going to get to 3:00 a.m. tonight apparently. We'll be able to see if we answer the call at 3:00 a.m.

OLBERMANN: Speak for yourself.

TODD: Yes sir. Well, where do we go from here? We got this all lined up, 12 more contests. And I think what is interesting is, I kind of just want to group them together. Obviously we know Pennsylvania, April 22nd. This Saturday, Wyoming, Mississippi. But I kind of want to group them together in this respect. We've got these contests out here. They feel like Obama contests. They look familiar. We're starting to see an Obama, you can almost figure out where can Obama win and where can Clinton win, right? And then you have these two southern states. North Carolina, Mississippi, large African-American populations. They feel like good paces for Obama.

Then you look here and this sort of industrial Midwest border state. They feel like Hillary Clinton states. The reason you sort of group them that way, is you say to yourself, at some point, one of these candidates has to win one in the other guy's turf. So to look, to look at these states and you say where is one going to target the other? Obviously, they all to have play in Pennsylvania; that's a tough state. Tim Russert pointed out only Democrats. That's a big, big issue for Obama. He has yet to win a primary that was Democrats only that you didn't have any independents involved. That would be tough. But obviously, it would be a sort of nail in the coffin type of victory for Obama if he could win one on her turf.

Though in it reverse. How about her figuring out how to win North Carolina? This is a state looks an awful lot like Virginia, at least in the primary, large African-American vote. Large sort of in that Raleigh, Chapel Hill area where you have some white wine drinkers and lots of college educated folks that seem to gravitate toward Obama. Maybe this is a place she thinks she can go run up the score in western Carolina. Show off her barbecue roots there and show that she knows the difference between vinegar based barbecue and tomato based barbecue and things like that.

So you almost wonder, if it is one of those two states, can one win something in the other person's turf? Those seem to be the two big ones I point out. If you're looking for delegate prizes, Pennsylvania is the biggest one left. After that comes North Carolina. That's the second biggest one. And then after that is Indiana which is on the same night as North Carolina. That's one that maybe Obama thinks that he can pull one from her turf. And then the fourth biggest prize for delegates, guys, the last one, Puerto Rico, 55 delegates. That's the fourth biggest prize. Forget all these other states. Puerto Rico actually has more delegates than Oregon, gets more delegates than Kentucky, more delegates than West Virginia, than real states that have real members of Congress. Puerto Rico without a real member of Congress, a real governor, they get 55 delegates. Go figure. Only in the Democratic Party, right?

OLBERMANN: What I noticed is not on your list there Chuck, Michigan and Florida primaries.


TODD: And that I think this is, Tim brought this up in that last segment. This is now, Howard Dean can no longer sit on the sidelines and say OK and hope this was going to get worked out without having to figure out what they were going to do with Florida and Michigan. It doesn't look like some sort of credentials committee compromise where you split the delegates 50/50 between the two, so somebody is going to have to take control of this and say OK. We got to schedule something. We got to figure this out because this isn't going to resolve itself in some sort of fight behind closed doors. If there is going to be a primary, is there going to be a caucus? You got some big powerful Democrats in Michigan. Debbie Dingell, John Dingell, longest serving Democrat in the House, Jennifer Grandholm (ph), these are really power players. Jimmy Hoffa, the teamsters. It could be a big player up there in Michigan. Labor has a big stake in this. Then you've got Florida, a lot of big players there. You wonder if some senior statesmen might step in here. This will be an interesting way for Al Gore to step into the process and say OK, I'm not going to endorse anybody, but I am going to endorse the idea of a new Florida primary or a new Florida caucus.

OLBERMANN: Hi, I'm Al Gore and I know my Florida.

MATTHEWS: Chuck it just seems that my initial notion of this campaign, it is the only sport, the only competition when you have the playoffs and then you have the regular season. I mean, we thought we had a major coming to Jesus decision back in what New Hampshire? Before it was Iowa. We thought each one of them was going to decide who won this thing. And yet we find ourselves going further and further away from a decisive battle.

TODD: And there doesn't seem to be one. Like I said, the only way you can come up a decisive battle in this is if somehow she beat him on his turf, North Carolina, Mississippi or he beat her on her turf, Pennsylvania being the first shot. He would have to knock her off. Maybe Kentucky or an Indiana falls into that category. Where they just finally proved to the other side, oh, I can win over your supporters. I can win on your turf.

OLBERMANN: I can drink your milkshake. While we still have you, is there anything without going through telestrator again, is the any indication yet about who won delegates in Ohio and Texas?

TODD: No. We are starting to get some Texas caucus results. Not surprisingly, Obama is doing well. He's polling well there. He's probably going to win the caucus side of this thing. I've already told but the allocation issues that have gone against Clinton. Obama probably had a negative 5 point cushion to still be able to net delegates between both the caucus and the primary out of Texas. If she gets seven out of Ohio plus seven, we already said Vermont and Rhode Island cancel each other out. Each of them got about three out of there. She gets seven out of Ohio. You can see how he gets five, seven, nine, who knows out of Texas. So we're looking at this entire night where Hillary Clinton may win more states than she does net delegates.

MATTHEWS: Just so people can go to bed tonight and put their head on the pillow with some assurance, is it impossible or implausible for Senator Clinton to win elected delegates?

TODD: You got to say it is improbable. It's not impossible. Look, percentage wise, it's after tonight, it's 62 percent. Assuming Mississippi and Wyoming go the way we think they're going to go, that number climbs to 65 percent going forward, starting with Pennsylvania. Now what does that mean? That means all remaining pledge delegates, 65 percent. We already went through some states. We said Oregon is likely, these western states are likely to be Obama states, North Carolina, likely to be an Obama state. So if you pull those out of the figure, then suddenly it becomes 75, 80 percent. They're numbers that are not realistic. We saw tonight. She had a potentially a double digit victory in Ohio. I said potentially because Cuyahoga County will count their votes sometime this week and it could get down to single digits. Even if it is 14 points, she's going to net seven delegates out of it. That's what kind of land slide it took for her to get seven delegates. That's the climb. That's sort of the up-hill climb she's facing in a lot of these states.

MATTHEWS: So as we go to bed tonight, it is unlikely, in fact implausible that she'll win the delegate count of elected delegates.

TODD: That's correct. But let's remember, it is also unlikely that Barack Obama is going to get to 20 25 and so both of them are going to be short. The question is now, it becomes this resume battle with the super delegates. I really think that that's what it is. It will be a resume battle.

MATTHEWS: I'm trying to imagine this from a regular person's point of view. They pick up the paper a month from now. They say, wait a minute. Barack Obama got the most elected delegates. He got the most votes cast for him, but wait a minute. There's going to be this meeting of these people called super delegates, right. That's what's going to be in the paper in their heads, right (INAUDIBLE)

TODD: They're also going to see Hillary Clinton won Texas. She won Ohio. She won Pennsylvania. She won California. She won New York. These aren't insignificant states either. They're going to get to a point, at least I think that's what the Clinton folks hope, that look. They know they're not going to overtake him. I think their hope is to get it under 100, get that pledge delegate lead under 100 and then they can sit here and say, gee, it's negligible the difference between us, now look at our body of work. And she will say, my body of work has included Ohio possibly Pennsylvania.


MATTHEWS: That's not the way Jeffersonian democracy works. Jefferson would have said that if democracy is a willingness to accept a victory by one vote. That's how it works.

TODD: Jefferson wasn't on this McGovern commission back in 1972 when they created this mess.

MATTHEWS: It would have helped. It certainly would have helped.

OLBERMANN: Chuck Todd, MSNBC, NBC News political director and also, you heard from his references to the barbecue, the fill-in host of diners and diets on the Food Network. Thanks Chuck.

So we will now - we know now we are going to go through some process. It will go through at least Pennsylvania and more likely into June, possibly primaries as yet on board in Florida and Michigan as yet unscheduled. And yet the results will perhaps not be decided by the primaries.

MATTHEWS: Not until Denver. Did you notice the lilt in Tim Russert as it sort of grew? He grew. He elevated as he talked of June. It is almost, one of the sports, I was just thinking, this was supposed to be over in the spring and yet we're going to contests it looks like now like the Stanley cup, like the NBA playoffs. It is hot out. You're at the beach and you're watching the NBA championship. Right? You're watching the hockey championship, the Stanley cup. It's going to be like that. It's going to be in the summer.

OLBERMANN: I know, he know. When is the all-star break? How about we take one right now?

MATTHEWS: We'll need one. We'll need one. I think we're taking a real break.

OLBERMANN: I think we are. When we return, Nora O'Donnell and the panel will take over our coverage. Chris Matthews, a pleasure sir.

MATTHEWS: It's always good.

OLBERMANN: I'm Keith Olbermann. Thanks for being with us tonight. Coming up, the race in Texas decided at the last minute virtually and all the rest tonight. Nora O'Donnell takes you the rest of the way. Thank you.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)


NORA O'DONNELL, MSNBC CORRESPONDENT: And welcome back to MSNBC's continuing decision 2008 coverage, tonight Hillary Clinton won three of four contests and vowed to fight on until the end. Here she is addressing her supporters in Columbus, Ohio.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. HILLARY CLINTON (D) PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Americans don't need more promises. They've heard plenty of speeches. They deserve solutions and they deserve them now. America needs a president who is ready to lead, ready to stand up for what's right, even when it is hard. And after seven long years of George W. Bush, we sure are ready for a president who will be a fighter, a doer and a champion for the American people again.

I think we're ready for health care, not just for some people or most people but for every American. I think we're ready for an economy that works for everyone not just those at the top but every single hard working American who deserves a shot at the American dream. I think we're ready to declare energy independence and create million of green collar jobs. We're ready to reach out to our allies and confront our shared challenges. We're ready to end war in Iraq and win the war in Afghanistan. And we're past ready to serve our veterans with the same devotion that they've served us. Protecting America is the first and most urgent duty of the president. When there is a crisis and that phone rings at 3:00 a.m. in the White House, there is no time for speeches or on-the-job training. You have to be ready to make a decision.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

O'DONNELL: That was Hillary Clinton earlier tonight in Columbus, Ohio, addressing her supporters. Hillary Clinton is going to be up at 3:00 a.m. this morning. Her plane just took off from Ohio. She is flying back to Washington, DC and she is going to be on all of the morning shows tomorrow. She says this was a big night for her and right before her plane took off, she told reporters that because she won three out of the four states tonight, she quote, began a new chapter in this historic campaign. We are joined by our panel. Chuck Todd joins us, Rachel Maddow and Eugene Robinson. And Gene, how big of a psychological boost is this for the Clinton campaign and her supporters?

EUGENE ROBINSON: I think it is huge because it keeps the campaign alive. They were set to have a meeting tomorrow in Washington that could have been a meeting to discuss options in the kind of terminal sense. And now it will be a re-launch of the campaign. Three out of four including the two big ones is a good night. Now, as Chuck will no doubt tell us, that does not translate to delegates. And so at the end of this evening, as we have been every night basically, you know, we're back where we started. We're back where we've been for a while and this is just going to be on. And they're both really strong candidates.

RACHEL MADDOW: It is like we're back where we started in the sense that it is kind of tied again. Except there's this looming issue of the delegates. If we're at where we started out in the campaign, which is that both of them have a shot. Except one of them doesn't really have a shot at wrapping up the total number of delegates. It makes you realize that this may be have to be decided by party elders in the sense they have to push somebody out or they have to push it all the way to the convention and let those delegates decide. I don't see another way out of it.

O'DONNELL: Chuck, Hillary Clinton said tonight, we're going on, we are going strong and we are going all the way. Her chief strategist Mark Penn (ph) said this week, there are 16 more contests to go.

TODD: He misspoke. There's actually 12. No, Mark Penn misspoke, as always to me, proved to me that his head has never been in this calendar. He has never understood the primary process from the beginning and he has been running a general election campaign which I think is what got him in some much trouble. But anyway, I didn't mean to interrupt.

O'DONNELL: No, no, 12 states. Even if she were to win those contests, could she catch up in the delegate match?

TODD: Well, no. The point is Obama can't get to 2025 either so which is a point the Clinton campaign would make and it is a fair point. My favorite thing about this process is that we're learning what each candidate can't do. Hillary Clinton is proving she is not a good party leader. She doesn't know how to organize. She doesn't know how to handle the caucus situation. Obama is proving that he is really good at that, but he's yet to figure out how to win the big states, how to win a big message battle, how to win that big war which is what the Clintons always did so well. Here was Bill Clinton, the only two term president I can think of that would win big on election night and see his party lose seats in the Senate and the House. So you've always had that dichotomy in proving that Bill Clinton was always a good big picture guy, but never good with the details of actually being the party leader and Hillary Clinton proving the same thing. One needs to figure out how to do the other and if one does, they'll be the nominee.

O'DONNELL: Hillary Clinton was asked in an interview tonight, you're not going to be ahead in the pledged delegates so you're counting on the super delegates, right? Essentially what she said is, listen. With all due respect to Senator Obama, I won the big states that you have to win in a general election. Will that be the argument that she makes going forward?

TODD: Well, I think it will be that argument and the other argument she's going to make and one I think you'll see pop up a lot more with that pupil (ph) a couple of days ago, which showed that somehow 25 percent of her supporters could vote for McCain and I've heard Pat Buchanan say this and look. John McCain is going right to Michigan and some places that I think he thinks he can win some of these white working class Democrats, the so-called Reagan Democrats and that Obama is struggling to win those over whether it is a race issue, whatever we want to read into it of what the issue is. And that she will somehow suddenly start trying to make that message. And somehow Obama's lost his argument about independents and Republicans which had been such a powerful argument and he's not been as effective selling that. She may end up finding herself as part of her resume that she's got to sell.

O'DONNELL: Rachel, will Howard Dean now have to intervene and will they have to resolve the issue of Michigan and Florida?

MADDOW: Well, I don't know. I don't know what Howard Dean's goal is. Is it to make it most likely that the party wins in November? Or is it the most likely that the Democratic Party is strengthened? I think Chuck's point about what happened in the Clinton years is well taken, which is that Bill Clinton did very well at the top of the ticket and the rest of the ticket fell apart. The state party system fell apart and we lost the state, the state houses and the state legislatures and all of those other elements of strength of the Democratic Party. If the idea is to make sure the Democratic Party survives this stronger than it was at the beginning of this process, that's a different calculus than wanting to make sure that the convention isn't brokered.

O'DONNELL: Yeah, but you have two Democrats who raised $85 million combined in the last month. And aren't there going to be some Democratic party leaders who say, instead of having another month of sending $50 to $100 million on another contest, shouldn't we be spending that making sure that we beat John McCain in November and that we make sure we get more Democrats elected to the House and the Senate?

ROBINSON: Sure and some Democrats will say and in a sense they'll be right. But how do you make this race stop? How do you make it stop?

O'DONNELL: And not that Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton will listen to Howard Dean.

ROBINSON: No exactly. Howard Dean has zero ability to tell Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton to get out of the race. So you know, how does it end? And after tonight, it could have ended tonight if Obama had won Ohio and Texas. I think it would have ended. If he had won Texas, it might have been. He didn't win either and so as you project out, what is left that could knock somebody out of the race?

TODD: I think if Obama wins. This goes to this idea, if one wins something in the other person's turf. But Howard Dean can do one thing. He can settle this in Michigan.

ROBINSON: He's got to do that.

TODD: If he at all wants a legacy as the DNC chair at this point, this will always sit on him. He can sit here and say it was the state parties that brew this. Truth, but he's the leader. This is his party.

MADDOW: Why don't we do that now and not wait to do that right before the convention?


TODD: You can't allow this to be done in the credentials committee. I think you have to figure out how to get Florida and Michigan.

MADDOW: But you also have to hope that it gets settled some other way before it comes down to one man...

TODD: (INAUDIBLE) and it didn't happen.

ROBINSON: You can't wait until Pennsylvania to start fixing Michigan and Florida. You got to do it now.

(INAUDIBLE)

O'DONNELL: All right, guys.

TODD: I think the Clintons want something settled and would rather have a revote than risk the credentials committee.

O'DONNELL: We're going to continue this conversation right after this. We're also going to have more from our exit polls on how Hillary Clinton won Texas and Ohio tonight, these big states. MSNBC's decision 2008 coverage continues right after this.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

NORAH O'DONNELL, MSNBC ANCHOR: Welcome back to MSNBC's continuing Decision 2008 coverage and tonight, big wins for Senator Hillary Clinton. She has won in Ohio, and Texas and Rhode Island, something her chairman Terry McAuliffe first predicted this morning on Morning Joe that she would win those three states. I interviewed him later in the day. He said he was still feeling confident. They have scored big tonight in those states and we're rejoined by our panel tonight. Chuck Todd, Rachel Maddow and of course, Eugene Robinson.

We were talking about where we go now. Does this go on for another three months, all the way to Puerto Rico in June?

CHUCK TODD, MSNBC CORRESPONDENT: Look. Without assuming Hillary Clinton wins Pennsylvania. I mean now the burden is on her. She has to win her states. He has to win his states. I don't see how she stops at this point. What would change? If she's made the decision now, the whole pledge delegate front, all that stuff. What would change after a narrow victory in Pennsylvania and stuff like that? So clearly, she wants to go play this all the way you the will.


RACHEL MADDOW, MSNBC CORRESPONDENT: If she loses Pennsylvania, is there a new mathematical impossibility to her prospect?

TODD: A loss in Pennsylvania for her would be such a devastating blow because it is a Democrats-only primary. It identifies in the face of the idea that you have independents or Republicans crossing over. Sure, Obama does well there. Among actual Democrats, the race is always very close including in Wisconsin and Virginia. They would make that argument. So losing in Pennsylvania, you would lose an industrial state. Pennsylvania is another very important swing state to Democrats. You don't win the white house without Pennsylvania. There would be all these different talking points that Ohio has provided. But after that there's nowhere else to go. You can't sit there and say Indiana, North Carolina...

Pennsylvania is the last big fat delegate prize. North Carolina being the second biggest one. That's a state that feels very much an Obama state. So this is one. It is a must-win for her. But also, an opportunity again for Obama. And at some point, he has to close the deal if he wants to be a nominee.

EUGENE ROBINSON, MSNBC CORRESPONDENT: One of those knock her out primaries.

O'DONNELL: What about the argument that the Clinton campaign has made and will be making tomorrow, that because Hillary Clinton won three of the four states tonight that is correct this will be a buyers' remorse. That Democratic voters are not ready to anoint Barack Obama as their nominee and they want to look at him some more and have this nomination battle go on?

ROBINSON: I have the same problem with that argument that Chris Matthews has which is it's always a new set of voters. So these voters, it is not as if they voted once for Obama and then said, oh, gee. Maybe I really wanted to vote for Hillary. So you know the tenure of the race does change...

O'DONNELL: The Clinton campaign believes they will find nuggets of truth and validation in their strategy over the past week. Among the voters who chose to vote in the last week said they made up their mind in the last week. They overwhelmingly went for Hillary Clinton.

What did we see in the last week? We saw what the Obama campaign calls the kitchen sink. This 3:00 a.m. ad, the questions about his NAFTA support, the Rezko trials starting on Monday. They believe this constant drum beat; question, question, question. The media is too easy on him put him on the defensive. And they'll say it worked. Keep it up.

MADDOW: Two things will happen. The Clinton campaign will try to build on success. What they have seen success that is they go to everything they have at Barack Obama. And Democratic voters are still anew going to be confronted with the same question they've had the answer for a lock time now. Who can beat John McCain? Who can beat John McCain? If looking at Hillary Clinton's campaign makes them say she's good at being on at the attack. If looking at Obama's campaign says it looks like he doesn't fight back hard when he's attacked, that may be a problem for Barack Obama. He will pivot now. We should expect to see more of the same from Hillary Clinton.

O'DONNELL: Chuck, what about what may be viewed as the failures of Hillary's campaign in terms of the contest tonight? He outspent her in Texas and Ohio. Some may say he reacted too much. He spent a lot of time in this last week having smaller rallies, talking more about specifics. She was saying let's focus on solutions. He is all about speeches and not about solutions. So he did kind of change his settings a little bit. Did it hurt him?

TODD: Well, he also approached these March 4 primaries with the exact same strategy it fell like in that Super Tuesday period. He would go on the air with the same ads. He gives the same speech, gives the big rallies. They did try to do smaller town hall type settings. They realized they were getting into that New Hampshire danger zone where it was too much of a rally. But you know he's got to do more substance. He has to answer this charge that he is not being substantive enough and maybe yes when you look at his stump speech and you measure it for issues and you look at her stump speeches, maybe there isn't a difference but it's that perception gap.

O'DONNELL: I remember the first 15 minutes. It seemed like a lot of questions going out there.


TODD: But it's substance. There's a way to do it. You drown people in white paper. You sit here and have -

O'DONNELL: Policy after policy.

MADDOW: I think people are worried that Barack Obama is a bunny. That he is not enough of a fighter. That he has been untested by Republicans and he has been bowled over by Hillary Clinton. And that's nothing compared to what the Republican there's throw at him. I think the substance he needs to show is the kind with boxing gloves on. I think he needs to fight.

O'DONNELL: Talking about fighting. Move whoever wins this will have to fight John McCain. Tonight he garnered a very big prize. He is now the Republican nominee. We'll talk more about that right after this as well as well as some more information about our exit polls. More right after this.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

O'DONNELL: Welcome back to 2008 Decision coverage. John McCain won all four contests and secondly won the Republican nomination. Here's what he told his supporters in Dallas tonight.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

SEN. JOHN MCCAIN (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Now we begin the most important part of our campaign, to make a respectful, determined and convincing case to the American people that our campaign and my election as president given the alternatives presented by our friends in the other party are in the best interests of the country we love.

I have never believed I was destined to be president. I don't believe anyone is predestined to lead America. But I do believe that we were born with responsibilities to the country that has protected our god given rights and the opportunities they afford us.

I didn't grow up with the expectation that my country owed me more than the rights owed every American. On the contrary, I owe my country every opportunity I have ever had. I owe her the meaning that service to America has given my life.

In the sense that I am part of something greater than myself, part of a kinship of ideals, that have always represented the last best hope of mankind. I understand the responsibilities I incur with this nomination and I give you my word, I will not evade or slight a single one.

Our campaign must be and will be more than another tired debate of false promises, empty sound bytes or useless arguments from the past that address not a single of America's concerns for their family's security.


My friends, presidential candidates are judged on their record, their character, and the whole of their life experiences. But we're also expected to concentrate our efforts on the challenges that will confront America on our watch and explain how we intend to address them.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

O'DONNELL: Tonight, a very big night for John McCain as he has won all four contests. His chief rival still left in the race, Mike Huckabee, the former Arkansas governor, has essentially conceded the contest and John McCain is also headed to Washington tomorrow. He will have lunch with President Bush and will appear in the rose garden with the president as the president is expected to formally endorse John McCain and offer his support in the effort of fundraising and helping him to raise money.

And we're rejoined by our panel. And Chuck, how big is John McCain's victory? How big is the fact that Hillary Clinton won important to John McCain?

TODD: Do we think that McCain would be appearing with Bush tonight had Obama ended the nomination?

It is almost easy, this is easy for McCain to get the Bush meeting out of the way now because it is not a bother because this race goes on many you almost wonder when things happen. This was huge for McCain. Had Obama ended this race tonight, Obama would have announced that had he raised $50, $60 million for February.

As the nominee, how much a month do we think he could have raised? $75, $80 million. McCain is not there yet. McCain may eventually start raising $20, $25 million to do it. He doesn't have the operation to do it. He needs time to build an infrastructure. And Hillary Clinton has bought him time. That's huge. It could be now three months before a single Democratic candidate lays a glove on John McCain. And the way Bill Clinton did to Bob Dole.

O'DONNELL: If there were a Democratic nominee, they would be hammering John McCain everyday. And they would have so much more money to do it.

ROBINSON: Couldn't the party, or a 527 or - isn't there some way?

O'DONNELL: Have you seen so much money?

ROBINSON: Should Howard Dean be thinking of this?

TODD: They've done some good stuff when you look at politically, what they've done with McCain on this fundraising stuff. They've created a legal headache for him if nothing he will. The FCC has no teeth. But it has created some bad headlines. So the DNC has done a little of their job. The big job, defining John McCain, which is what the next three months is going to be about, now McCain now largely gets to control that.


MADDOW: You see in term of the volume of coverage and what we've been talking about, it has been 9-1 talking about Democrats. McCain gets this footnote for the night and we get to keep focusing on Clinton, Obama, Clinton, Obama. He gets to keep building his capacity. This campaign is a mess many.

O'DONNELL: Later today is a gift for the Democrats, which is this picture of John McCain standing side by side next to President Bush in the rose garden. Democrats want to make the argument that it is John W. McCain.

ROBINSON: The McCain Bush war. The McCain Bush economy.

TODD: Don't forget, John McCain has spent a career distancing himself from George Bush.

MADDOW: He is running back into his arms.

TODD: It takes time to define that many.

ROBINSON: If Hillary Clinton continues to define John McCain as better than Barack Obama, that's a real problem will.

MADDOW: As John McCain goes to the white house, Bush and McCain ceremonially launch the first bombing sortie of the next war. That they go, they're going to get together and push the ceremonial button to start the next war. He'll be Senator bomb-bomb McCain. And the Democrats on the let will hit him with that. Not foreseeing, which is plainly obvious, not foreseeing that McCain is happily going to embrace Bush. He will embrace the war. He will embrace Iran and the Democrats on the left show no signs of waking up on that. McCain will be happily running into Bush's arms.

O'DONNELL: All right. More with our panel after right this. You are watching MSNBC's Decision 2008 coverage. More right after this.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

O'DONNELL: Welcome back to MSNBC's continuing coverage of our 2008 politics. Very interesting, Hillary Clinton won decisively among Democratic women in Texas tonight. And we're going to break down some of the exit poll, give you a sense of what's going on.

She also can thank Hispanics and late deciders for her victory. In fact, Hispanics in particular made a major difference. They turned out heavily, voted 2 to 1 for the former first lady. Also, Hispanics were 30 percent of the Democratic electorate this year and as you can see, they gave Clinton 67 percent of their votes to Obama's 31 percent.


She was the strong choice among late deciders, those who made up their minds in the last three days. Remember, that's when she was pushing her crisis management skills, of course that now famous 3:00 a.m. red phone ad. She also took those voters by 61 percent to 38 percent to Obama. She edged out Obama with voters who decided earlier as well.

Clinton also won the absentee vote as you can see here. She took that part of the electorate 51 percent to 45 percent. And even among independents where Obama has scored well in the past, the response in Texas was not as great as in previous contests. One quarter of the voters described themselves as independents. From our polls, you can see the Illinois senator virtually tied Clinton in this group. Two weeks ago in Wisconsin, Obama had won the independent vote by a 2-1 margin.

Also, Texas Democrats felt Clinton was better qualified to be commander-in-chief and they believe she has more detailed principals to solve the country's problems.

Bottom line, Chuck, as we look at the numbers, I mean she won back her base tonight.

TODD: She did and then some. It was a big win. She proved that in a big state, they have the operatives to do this. Now they just have to start moving it in more states.

I think that they can't just keep picking and choosing which ones they'll do well in. They have to prove. They're going to skip Mississippi and Wyoming, I guess. At some point, they have to figure out how to win on his terms.

O'DONNELL: Eugene, what about the argument when it coming to the big states, in November, New York, New Jersey, California, and now Texas and Ohio. She wins the base. She wins the people that turn out in November. That makes her the more suitable choice to run against the Republicans.

ROBINSON: All the big states get the bigger headlines. So it certainly advances her campaign from that standpoint. I mean I think the counter argument from the Obama side would be that California is not going to be won by a Republican in the fall. John McCain won't take California. John McCain won't take New York. He won't take New Jersey. He's not going to take Massachusetts. And Barack Obama will do fine in those states. And he is also, you know, going to win Missouri. He will put Colorado in play.

MADDOW: He will win a lot of independents and crossover Republicans.

TODD: Is he going to carry Ohio? Is he going to carry Michigan and Pennsylvania? These are three questions I have in my head about Obama. I believe that Colorado, that Virginia, maybe even Missouri there are places he can change the map. But the map gets change in a different way in the negative to him and those industrial states. There is a question mark. And that is the heart and soul of it.

O'DONNELL: One other dynamic that could change in the past couple weeks. Bill Clinton has -

TODD: Who?


O'DONNELL: I mean exactly. One of the things is that has been one of the successes of Hillary Clinton. We thought we would see Hillary Clinton surprise her on stage and there be with Chelsea Clinton. He was not at the debates with her. They see essentially quieted him?

MADDOW: They took Bill's light and put it under the bushel. The advantage, people concerned that the economy. These advantages peopled I might be going back to the Bill days. I might be going back to eight years of peace and prosperity. People are going to think that and argue that. Whether or not they see him on the campaign and embarrassing his wife.

TODD: And Wyoming. That tells you he go.

O'DONNELL: And on that note. Thank you. Thank you, Eugene Robinson and Rachel Maddow. I'm Norah O'Donnell at MSNBC headquarters in New York. It has been an amazing evening. You can stay with MSNBC. It is your place for politics. Good night.


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Ohio, Texas, Rhode Island, and Vermont Primaries Coverage for March 4, 6:00 - 2:00 a.m. ET Read the transcript from the special coverage Below:
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KEITH OLBERMANN, MSNBC ANCHOR: Floodwaters in Ohio sent perhaps to aid

political reporters, desperate and weary, already out of analogies and

imagery, and it's only March.

But what better way to describe a candidate with an 11-state winning streak than to call it a flood tide or his opponent as piling up sandbags. Of course, in this equation, she can up to her neck and still say there has been no breach.

Plenty of room for you on our bridge over troubled waters. It is voter night in America.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Vermont, Ohio, Texas, Rhode Island. Voters. Barack Obama's chance to make his voter lead almost insurmountable. Hillary Clinton's chance to make his momentum a thing of the past. Or most likely still, in this crazy primary season of MC-Usher like perceptions, these mutually exclusive things will both happen.


BILL CLINTON, FORMER U.S. PRESIDENT: If she wins in Texas and Ohio, I think she'll be the nominee. If you don't deliver for her, I don't think she can be.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: If that happens, of course, she may wind up disagreeing with him. With the analysis of NBC's Tim Russert, Tom Brokaw, David Gregory, Norah O'Donnell with the exit polls, and Chuck Todd on the vital delegate math, by the numbers. With Lester Holt inside the caucuses in Houston, Ron Allen at the Board of Elections in Ohio. Andrea Mitchell with the Clinton campaign in Columbus, Lee Cowan at Obama headquarters in San Antonio. Kelly O'Donnell with the McCain camp as it seeks to wrap up the GOP nomination in Dallas. Howard Fineman at the campaign listening post. And the MSNBC panel, Joe Scarborough, Pat Buchanan, Rachel Maddow and Eugene Robinson.

This is MSNBC's coverage of the Ohio, Texas, Vermont and Rhode Island primaries.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

OLBERMANN: And welcome to our MSNBC and NBC News world headquarters in New

York. Alongside Chris Matthews, I'm Keith Olbermann.

Bill Richardson called it D-Day for the Democrats, Chris. Is it going to be decisive or just divisive tonight?

CHRIS MATTHEWS, MSNBC ANCHOR: Well, I think some people think this is the last dance. I think they're going to Pennsylvania for the polka for seven more weeks. I think this is not going to end no matter what we report, although it's going to be exciting because as you know the results will be coming in throughout the evening from Rhode Island, Vermont, Ohio, and Texas. And we may not have a good solid victory by midnight. This could go on into the morning.

OLBERMANN: And if you've ever heard of six weeks of the Pennsylvania polka, obviously in the movie "Groundhog Day."

MATTHEWS: You got to be ready to roll out the barrel for this one.

OLBERMANN: That's the same. The same one again and again and again.

We are, before we get any results, going to get results of our early exit polling. Norah O'Donnell will be covering that desk for us, as always, is back tonight.


Good to see you. Give us a preview of what we have at this hour.

NORAH O'DONNELL, MSNBC CORRESPONDENT: Good evening to you, Keith and to

Chris, and of course, the economy, the big issue, of course, in all these

four states voting today. NAFTA a huge issue in the state of Ohio. Also

we're finding in Texas and Ohio, those big states we're watching tonight,

change is still more important than experience according to voters.


And also we're going to have some interesting information about what voters think, whether they think one of the candidates, either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama, has been more negative than the other in their attacks.

OLBERMANN: That would be extraordinary. Change ahead of experience.

Thank you, Norah. We'll see you at the exit poll in the virtual room.

O'DONNELL: You're welcome.

OLBERMANN: (INAUDIBLE) virtual. Chris?

MATTHEWS: For more of what's at stake and what to look for tonight, we turn to Chuck Todd, political director for NBC News. You're also our TV guide tonight here at MSNBC, Chuck.


So you're the TV guide right now. What can we expect as the evening progresses starting now?

CHUCK TODD, MSNBC POLITICAL DIRECTOR: All right. So let's start at 7:00. That's when polls close in Vermont. And there's just a magic number to watch for. This is the state we all expect Obama to do well. The question is how well. Watch for this number, 64 percent. Why does this number matter? If he gets this or more then he gets 10 of the 15 delegates. If he gets less than 64 percent, then it's only nine-six or even fewer. And that - obviously he wants a plus five delegate cushion going into the rest of the night.

So 64 percent. It's worth watching. And even if for some reason you think this race is over, watch those percentages closely in Vermont.

MATTHEWS: What about - what's the second one to come in tonight?

TODD: 7:30 one of the big ones. Ohio. Early polls closed. First thing, let's do all the big warnings. It's Ohio. They always figure out how to keep some polling place open later. Obviously we've talked about the floods in the opening. Who knows, there will be lots of excuses.

But what's going to make this even a longer night, forget how close things could be in the statewide vote between Clinton and Obama, it's the simple fact that all of the big delegate prizes in these congressional districts are in northeast Ohio. Northeast Ohio always counts late, particularly Cuyahoga County, which by the way has the biggest delegate prize.

Stephanie Tubb Jones, the African-American congresswoman there, represents an African-American district. That's one Obama hopes to run up the score. The other big prize in the night, also in northeast Ohio, but in the working class section there in - Jim Traffic cancelled district, represented now by Tim Ryan. It's his office. Wanted to make sure we say Tim Ryan more than we do Jim Traffic. That's a seven-delegate prize.

Working class, blue-collar, this is Youngstown, Chris. This is almost the polar opposite of the voter - of that latte voter that a lot of people like to talk about. And as far as sort of the cities versus the urban, you've got Barack Obama wanting to run up the score in Cleveland and Cincinnati, hold his own in Columbus. And hopefully he thinks hold his own in Toledo. We don't have toledo marked but I promise you that's where Toledo is.

Then you've got Hillary Clinton who's hoping to do very well here along southern Ohio. A lot of working class vote there. I talked about Youngstown, which is over here again. I promise you that's where Youngstown is.

And there's always my favorite swing area in the world, Dayton, Ohio, the original swing - district swing city. It's sort of - sometimes it's working class, sometimes it's rising higher educated area. It's a very interesting area to watch. So keep an eye on those areas as the night moves on.

MATTHEWS: Now to Texas.

TODD: Let's go to Texas. The Texas, some polls - all polls close at 7:00 local, which means Central Time. That's 8:00 in most of the state, 9:00 in El Paso. This is really a fascinating race and one where it's all favors Obama because of the way they allocate delegates.


He's trying to run up the score in Dallas, Houston and Austin. That's very important for him. Why? All of the way the delegates are allocated by the state Senate districts, all of them, heavy African-American districts in Dallas. Heavy African-American districts in Houston. By the way, some Katrina evacuees. How many of them were registered to vote for this primary?

And then Austin, one of the ultimate latte cities in this country. Hillary Clinton obviously wants to do well along the border, in the more rural parts of the area, El Paso, places like that, and then hold her own in Houston. There's some areas in Houston she should do well.

MATTHEWS: OK. We'll get more on Rhode Island in a minute.

Thank you, Chuck Todd.

TODD: You got it.

OLBERMANN: Thanks, Chuck.

All right. Let's go to Tim Russert, NBC's Washington bureau chief, of course, moderator of "Meet the Press." As we begin coverage tonight, give us the overview, Tim. What are you looking for? What are we looking for?

TIM RUSSERT, NBC NEWS WASHINGTON BUREAU CHIEF: Well, Keith, the best thing

for us, I think, is to talk to the campaigns because you get a sense of the

spin that's coming.

Obama's people will say, you know, we were down 20 points in Texas and Ohio. We've made a considerable comeback. If we get close and hold her to no significant net win of delegates, we'll have done our job. The Clinton people will counter, wait a minute, Obama won 11 primaries in a row. If we stop him tonight with a win in the popular vote in Texas and/or Ohio, that's interrupting his momentum. And that means we're resetting the race. We're back in the game.

You know, the interesting thing, Keith, will be the Clinton people will be focusing on the popular vote, the Obama people on the delegates tonight. One interesting question in our exit polls that we already can talk about, we asked the voters of the four states whether they thought that the so-called superdelegates should vote for the winners of the caucuses and primaries or vote for who they in their own judgment think is most electable.


And by a margin of almost two-to one, the voters are saying the superdelegates should vote for the winners of the caucuses and primaries, which is very, very significant in that if Senator Clinton does not make some significant inroads in the elected delegate count tonight, she's going to have to be very reliant on convincing superdelegates to switch into her column, even though Obama may have a lead amongst the elected delegates.

And so I think this will be another piece of information that will be debated by both campaigns and looked at by superdelegates throughout the country.

OLBERMANN: A shocking news, Tim, that voters prefer to have voters decide votes. Take something else that Nora hinted at in her preview of what's coming up in our - we'll look at the exit polls in a couple minutes. This idea of change over experience. Does that read as simply as one would expect it to in Obama versus Clinton? Is that a big flag went up to celebrate in Obama headquarters when they hears that statistic?

RUSSERT: Sure. And that's why Clinton people have worked overtime trying to say that you cannot have change without experience. And therefore, we are the change candidates.

We will see some difference, I think, in this state in terms of the issues. Ohio overwhelmingly economy, economy, economy. Texas significant concern about the war and health care. And so I think that's important to keep minding that kind of data as to what is driving this Democratic base and what nuance may shift one state or another.

MATTHEWS: Tim, do you think there's going to be any kind of emissary or - what should I say, contingent of Democrats, big shots, going to see Senator Clinton in any of the scenarios that are feasible tonight to tell her it's over?

RUSSERT: It all depends what happens. If, in fact, she wins, Ohio, Texas, Rhode Island, she will say, get away from me. I'm staying in this race, I'm going. Well - but Senator, you didn't win many enough delegates. Well, that's OK. There's a lot more to go and anything can happen. And it's clear the voters want to keep this race going.

If she wins one big state and loses another state, you know, there - some people will say publicly, as Bill Richardson said over the weekend, well, perhaps this should be D-Day, in his words.

But you know, Chris, there is no contingent of big shot Democrats. They pretty much aligned themselves. And you know, absent, I guess, Al Gore, there's nobody out there who is truly been involved in politics for a long, long time, has the depth and the gravitas who has not committed himself than someone like Gore. But I think it's way too early for anyone to do that based on what we don't know right now.

OLBERMANN: And you've just then deposited another interesting idea, the idea of Al Gore going to sort of broker some sort of vote decision that can't be decided by ordinary means. Might be worth it just for the irony alone.

Tim Russert, great, thanks. We'll check back with you.

MATTHEWS: 537.


OLBERMANN: Yes. Get - go ahead. Get your board. We'll wait. All right. Thanks, Tim.

RUSSERT: All right, Keith.

OLBERMANN: As we've been promising, a full look at the first round of exit poll numbers. For that we turn to Norah O'Donnell.

Norah, good evening again.

O'DONNELL: Good evening to you, Keith. And you were just talking about this with Tim Russert. And of course, tonight the economy is the number one issue in each of the four states voting today.

One of the key concerns is jobs, particularly in Ohio and Texas, where there has been a lot of talk about the NAFTA trade agreement with Canada and Mexico. Both candidates have said that they would renegotiate NAFTA if they became president. That's what - you heard it on our debate here on MSNBC. And I can tell you what, based on these numbers you can see why the candidates said that.

First in Ohio, a whopping eight in ten Democratic primary voters feel international trade agreements take more jobs away than they create. Buckeye state Democrats are even more negative about NAFTA than they were four years ago. In Ohio, union voters, non-union voters, the young and the old, they are all down on NAFTA. And in fact, an identical number of Clinton voters and Obama voters see trade agreements taking jobs away.

Now what about in Texas where we might expect that voters be more - might be more positive about that? Well, even there they are critical of trade agreements. Then that stated that they significantly outnumber those who see the tax providing a net job gain. What I mean here is, say, look, six out of ten say it hurts jobs while only a quarter see job creation as the bigger affect.

And when we come back in just about half an hour from now, we're going to take a look at those independent voters in tonight's Democratic primaries, open primaries, very significant number, Chris and Keith.

OLBERMANN: Norah O'Donnell with first set of exit polls.

Thank you, Norah.

O'DONNELL: You're welcome.


MATTHEWS: Now time to introduce our panel tonight. MSNBC's Joe Scarborough, the host of "MORNING JOE," "The Washington Post's" Eugene Robinson, he's MSNBC political analyst, MSNBC political analyst Pat Buchanan, and Air America Radio's Rachel Maddow, who's also an MSNBC political analyst.

Take it away, Joe.

JOE SCARBOROUGH, HOST, "MORNING JOE": All right. Thanks a lot.

Pat Buchanan, what are you ago looking for tonight?

PAT BUCHANAN, MSNBC POLITICAL ANALYST: What am I looking for tonight? Well, I think there's been a deceleration in the campaign of Obama in the last week since last we met. I think the Farrakhan he's been hit with, the Canadian thing, the NAFTA thing, the red telephone.

I'm looking to see if Hillary rodham Clinton has broken the momentum in time to - still win Ohio and/or Texas, or whether his early momentum and the early voting is going to take it away.

SCARBOROUGH: Rachel, it does seem like Hillary Clinton has some momentum. If she has some momentum, let's say she wins one of two states or two of two of the big states tonight, she has been outspent three to four to one. For every four Obama ads you've seen in Texas, you've only seen one Hillary ad. And yet, seems like the wind's at her back. That's bad news for Obama. Does that mean he can't close the sell?

RACHEL MADDOW, MSNBC POLITICAL ANALYST: Well, I mean, still the best case

scenario for Clinton in the headlines tomorrow is Clinton goes one in 15,

you know, or 2 in 15. Really, it's.

SCARBOROUGH: Well then, how about this?

MADDOW: Yes.


SCARBOROUG: This is the headline. Clinton wins every state Democrats have to win to beat McCain in November.

MADDOW: Well, you know.

SCARBOROUGH: That's a good headline, too, isn't it?

MADDOW: It's a good headline. But.

SCARBOROUGH: Yes, it's a great headline.

MADDOW: Listen, Joe, you.

SCARBOROUGH: We'll give you Kansas. We'll take Ohio, Obama.

MADDOW: You know, Joe, I mean, you can do backflips to come up with a spin for any of these things. But the fact remains that the Clinton campaign has had to pull rabbits out of hats in order to explain why they are still in the race and why they are not dropping out if it's going to hurt the Democratic chance in November.

SCARBOROUGH: Gene Robinson, if you're a superdelegate and you want to beat John McCain in November, are you going to just ask the person that wins New York, California, New Jersey, Ohio, Texas, these big states, if she wins those tonight, are you going to tell her get out of the race? We want to take the guy that's lost tonight, despite the fact he's been outspent four to one.

EUGENE ROBINSON, THE WASHINGTON POST: It depends. It actually depends on.

SCARBOROUGH: On what?

ROBINSON: On where we end up at the end of the night. If she wins one state, I think you might go to her and say, look, it's time to give up.


SCARBOROUGH: If she wins Ohio.

ROBINSON: If she wins Ohio and Texas, if she wins both of them, then you might want to wait a while if you're a superdelegate. But by the way, what's the state the Democrats have to win. I would count Illinois, I might count Missouri.

SCARBOROUGH: That's his home state. Good lord.

ROBINSON: Yes, but.

SCARBOROUGH: That's his home state.

ROBINSON: New York is hers, so.

MADDOW: It sounds like John McCain.

(CROSSTALK)

BUCHANAN: We've been talking in terms of.

MADDOW: John McCain is not going to win in New Jersey. John McCain is not going to win California. John McCain is not going to win New York state. So Democrats are going to win those either way. (INAUDIBLE)

BUCHANAN: We've been talking about how bad it's going to be in the Democratic Party if something terrible is done to poor Barack Obama. Let me tell you. I was down in Miami Dade, came up - I talked to four women who told me if Barack gets this thing, I'm a Hillary person, I'm going for McCain. There are a lot of women out there who have a strong vested interest and are as dedicated to Hillary as African-Americans are to Barack Obama.

SCARBOROUGH: Every single time I hear.


BUCHANAN: Let me tell you - and if she is perceived as being pushed out of the race, you know, Rachel Maddow's word, get out for the good of the party, I think you're going to have a real problem.

SCARBOROUGH: You know, every single time, Gene, I start hearing women in my family, my very Republican family saying it's terrible what they are doing to Hillary Clinton. I know it's time for Barack Obama to duck. They did it before New Hampshire. They did it before California, and I've been hearing it all week.

ROBINSON: Yes. Well, it's true. She has some dedicated supporters.

SCARBOROUGH: Women.

ROBINSON: Up to now she hasn't had as many as he's had. But we'll see what happens tonight.

SCARBOROUGH: Yes, we'll see.

BUCHANAN: Yes.

SCARBOROUGH: I am strong. I am invincible. I am woman. Will they stand up for Hillary Clinton tonight? We'll see.

Keith and Chris, back to you.

OLBERMANN: Well, thanks for finally admitting it, Joe.

Thank you much, Joe Scarborough and...

MATTHEWS: It's good enough for Helen Redy(ph).


OLBERMANN: Joe Scarborough and some of the panel on occasion.

When Chris and I return we'll go live in Ohio for the latest there where weather may have been the big winner or made big losers out of both Democrats. There's been an issue all day. And we'll talk to supporters, representatives of both the Clinton and Obama campaigns as we move closer to the first results of the night. That's just 42 minutes away.

MSNBC's DECISION 2008 coverage continues after this.

ANNOUNCER: MSNBC DECISION 2008 is brought to you by.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

OLBERMANN: And we rejoin you with MSNBC's continuing coverage of the primaries in Ohio, Texas, Vermont and Rhode Island. Polls in Ohio closing in just over an hour, about an hour and nine minutes at 7:30 Eastern. And one worry all day has been the weather. Of course, the other worry all day in Ohio is they're voting in Ohio and that's always a crap shoot.

NBC's Ron Allen is at the Board of Elections in Cleveland as these two issues merge.

Ron, good evening.

RON ALLEN, NBC NEWS CORRESPONDENT: Yes, I think you're right. There is a lot of concern about the vote here tonight in Ohio. But first the weather. There has been a lot of concern because there's been a wintry mix of rain, sleet, and snow falling across much of the state today.

There've been some reports of flooding down in the southeast. But it's very minor from what I understand. There's only been a few precincts that had to be moved in one place to another. There is also a number of election officials who got orders from judges so they could move election sites around and use provisional ballots in case things got bad. But it has not gotten that bad so far - as far as I understand.

The big concern, yes, is that tonight here in Cleveland, especially they are using brand-new voting system that is all of 75 or 80 days old. They are going to be using paper ballots, sort of like those ballots - sort of like those forms that you use when you take a standard (INAUDIBLE) test in school or you fill out a (INAUDIBLE) with an ink pen or a pencil. Then they're put through optical scanning machines and counted.

Here they've been trying to get rid of the electronic touch screen systems because of concerns about security and getting an accurate count. And all this, of course, goes back to 2004 when President Bush won here by some 120,000 votes igniting a real controversy to this day about how Ohio conducts its elections.


So yes, they're in the spotlight here. Things seem to be going smoothly as far as we understand. They are expecting record turnout, somewhere around 50 percent, which is an incredible number for a primary. But again, the big concern is tonight, when they start counting, using these brand-new machines that have really never been put to the test under real-time circumstances before.

OLBERMANN: Some things change and some things stay the same even when they do change.

Ron Allen at the Board of Elections in Cleveland, Ohio.

Thank you, Ron. We'll check back with - with you later.

Chris?

MATTHEWS: We're joined right now by supporters of both Democratic candidates.

Kweisi Mfume backing Senator Obama and Lisa Caputo served as press secretary to - Senator Clinton when she was first lady.

Lisa, I want to start with you. Give me the rosey scenario as you see it for your candidate's victory in the Democratic fight for the nomination.

LISA CAPUTO, FMR. HILLARY CLINTON PRESS SECRETARY: Well, the rosey scenario would be, Chris, that she wins Texas, Ohio, Rhode Island and Vermont, although I think Vermont will be a stretch. But that she wins those three states, Texas, Ohio and Rhode Island, handily by a good margin.

I think, though, what the Clinton campaign wants to see is a victory no matter what. They want to stop Obama's momentum. And I think everybody would agree, she's had a very good agree. She's drawing lines in the sand, showing a difference between herself and Senator Obama. Who's ready to be the commander in chief? Lining up a bunch of endorsements from military officials, up on the air with this ad, you know, who's ready to take that phone call at 3:00 a.m.?

So I think that she's tried to change the debate and has done so successfully over the last week.

MATTHEWS: Let me ask Congressman Kweisi Mfume the same question, the ideal scenario for your candidate starting tonight when we start counting these votes.


KWEISI MFUME, OBAMA SUPPORTER: Well, the ideal scenario is to win more delegates than Mrs. Clinton, and that's been the scenario all along. And interestingly enough, we've been able to do that.

Senator Obama's message continues to resonate. I was with him Sunday out in Ohio. I've watched people of all stripes, of all walks of life, gravitate to this message. It's simply amazing. I can't begin to tell you and I've been dealing with Democratic politics since 1980s when I was a Kennedy delegate and a Jackson delegate and on and on and on.

There's something different happening and it's happening all over the place including Ohio, Rhode Island, Vermont and Texas. I think what you're going to see is a continued increase in the vote total, meaning an increase also in the delegate total for Senator Barack Obama.

And by the way, there are only 661 delegates left to be pledged after this contest. So we're getting to the point now where there's a shift, I should say also, in superdelegates toward his way, where I think you're going to see this 160 or so lead that he has in pledged delegates continue to expand.

MATTHEWS: OK. Lisa, that leaves that to you. Take that rosey scenario all the way to Denver, the last week in August.

How does Senator Clinton, assuming she has a blockbuster night tonight, she does win three or four tonight - she goes on and win Pennsylvania, she goes on and has a new election in Florida. Governor Chris, the Republican, gives her that election, she wins down there, the numbers, do they work even then for Senator Clinton? Do they work?

CAPUTO: Well, you know, Congressman Mfume is correct. It's all about the delegates and I think in that scenario you start - have to start to look at the superdelegates, and both Senator Obama and Senator Clinton have said that they want the superdelegates to vote with the will of the people.

So I think what you'll have versus a scenario where if Hillary Clinton does a sweep tonight or at least three out of four, she stops the Obama momentum going into Pennsylvania and going into the later states, clearly has her own momentum and she - again, she has changed the debate. And I think you've seen Senator Obama on the defensive for the first time in a long while over this past week on the issue of national security, on the issue of NAFTA, and I think that puts her in great position going into the convention.

And I think, you know, then the superdelegates become up for grabs. No one has the superdelegate in their back pocket.

MATTHEWS: Just last question, Congressman, I've got to ask you.

If the superdelegates vote against the will of the elected delegates, is that trouble at the convention?

MFUME: Well, I think it's trouble at the convention, but it's also a trouble for the superdelegates. I mean, I think your exit polling in Ohio showed that even there, people expect superdelegates to follow the will of the people. And I think what we're seeing are superdelegates changing their minds, beginning with John Lewis and perhaps many before him and many hopefully after him.


But you know, the interesting thing is that Senator Obama has not been on the defensive. He's been simply going through the issues and taking the issues to people. And this thing about phone ringing at 3:00 in the morning, it's not a matter of who picks up the phone, it's the matter of who has the right judgment and temperament when they pick up the phone. And I think the senator has clearly proven that.

Jay Rockefeller was - together with he and myself out in Ohio over the weekend and said, this is the person that you want on real issues on national security. He was the one who read the national security report that said we shouldn't go in Iraq. Mrs. Clinton didn't read it, unfortunately, and voted to invade.

CAPUTO: Well, Chris.

MATTHEWS: OK. Thank you. Go ahead.

CAPUTO: You and I both know he didn't have to vote, so.

MATTHEWS: OK. Thank you very much, Lisa Caputo. Thank you very much, former congressman, former head of the NAACP, Kweisi Mfume.

MFUME: Thank you.

OLBERMANN: And he didn't have to read it either.

When Chris and I return in a moment, ahead we'll have new information from our exit polling plus Senator John Kerry, an Obama supporter, will be with us.

MSNBC's DECISION 2008 coverage continues after this.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

MATTHEWS: We're back with MSNBC's live Decision 2008 coverage. Polls will be closed in the first state of the night Vermont in now just 30 minutes. We're getting to the news of the night and it's coming on strong. Tonight, John McCain can go over the top, by the way, and win the Republican nomination tonight.


Michelle Bernard is an MSNBC political analyst and is with the group Independent Women's Voice. It's somewhat anti-climactic and it's not on the main stage tonight, but tell me what you think of the importance of John McCain coming back really Lazarus-like from where he was last summer.

MICHELLE BERNARD, INDEPENDENT WOMEN'S VOICE: I think it's been absolutely amazing. We've heard it commonly referred to as the resurrection of John McCain. Really, he had been left out completely for dead. For many months, we went on with no one talking about John McCain. It was, is the Republican nominee going to be Rudy Giuliani or is it going to be Mitt Romney. I think even John McCain was scratching his head earlier this winter, just saying, who would have ever thought it.

So this has been a pretty amazing feat for him and I think that he is

as we have seen, for example, the media has completely forgotten about Governor Huckabee. This is John McCain's time. I think he is paying very close attention to both Senator Clinton and Senator Obama. I suspect we'll see him taking a page out of some of their advertisements and looking forward to the general election in November. He's just moving onward and moving forward.

MATTHEWS: Speaking of the general election, fairly or not, he does

have an opportunity, given his maverick reputation, to go down the middle

in Pennsylvania. We is he still over there currying the favor of people

like Pastor Hagee? Why is he still fighting the old war of trying to woo

over the cultural right, when his challenge now is to go down the center,

carry California, carry Maine, carry New Jersey and beat the Democrats?

Why is he fighting the old war?

BERNARD: I've got to tell you, I don't disagree with you. I'm sort of trying to figure it out myself. I mean, the conservative part of the base is an important part of the base. But for better or worse, the Republican party is fractured, and that part of the base is never, ever going to wrapt their arms around John McCain and come to the rescue in November.


I think he's trying to pull the party back together, but the bottom line is he is a maverick. Independents, conservative Democrats, moderate Republicans, that is his base. I think he doesn't want to thumb his nose at the conservative part of the base, that basically feels that he has sort of poo-pooed them all along. But the chances of him really wooing them and bringing them in in large masses, I think, is going to be pretty, and he would be better off by picking a vice presidential running mate that can woo that part of the base.

MATTHEWS: I've got a better idea. What date between now and the election in November will he drop this promise of a 100 year war in Iraq?

BERNARD: I don't think that's going to happen.

MATTHEWS: I don't even think the 100 Years War was predicted or promised to be 100 years by the king who started it. The idea was they got stuck with it. You know, wouldn't it be smarter to say, let's win this baby and come home?

BERNARD: Well, I -

MATTHEWS: I'm just thinking politically here. Wouldn't that be a better promise to the American people? Ike brought our boys home, our girls home, our women home.

BERNARD: Chris, when has John McCain ever done what is necessarily the politically correct thing to do? The bottom line is, you think about Japan, if you think about South Korea, if you think about Germany, we have had people in those countries for many, many, many years, and I think that he would feel that he was being untrue to himself.

MATTHEWS: Well you're wrong because the war stopped there in 1945 and we haven't been fighting a war on those fronts. We're fighting a war in Iraq. It's if the war goes on, not the occupation. We're in a war zone in Iraq and that's the problem. If it were quiet - there hasn't been a Nazi shooting at us since 1945, of course we're happy in Germany. Is it the same?

BERNARD: It's not the same, but I don't think he's saying we're going to be at war in Iraq for the next 100 years. I think he is trying to make a distinction and say that we're going to have a presence in Iraq for a long time.

MATTHEWS: If they're shooting at you, it's a war. Michelle, thank you. I'm being tough because I think he's wrong on this one. Anyway, thank you Michelle Bernard.

We'll be right back with you throughout the night. We'll talk about Iraq, the economy, health care and all the hot issues that are driving these primaries tonight all across the country.

Up next, new numbers from our exit polling. Plus, NBC's David Gregory is joining, and Senator John Kerry, who is supporting Barack Obama. MSNBC's Decision 2008 coverage continues after this.


(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

OLBERMANN: We rejoin you with MSNBC's live coverage of the primaries in Ohio, Texas, Rhode Island and Vermont, under the acronym VOTR. Top of the hour, we'll have the first results of the night. The polls closing in Vermont. Then at 7:30 Eastern, polls close in Ohio. Presumably, there might be some delay in there because of weather.

One of the two big states up for grabs tonight. The other being Texas. At 9:00 Eastern, the polls in the great state will close, as well as those in Rhode Island. All of it counts.

Let's check in with the campaigns now. We'll begin with the Clinton campaign. Andrea Mitchell will be in Columbus, Ohio, where the Clinton headquarters is based. Andrea, good evening.

ANDREA MITCHELL, NBC NEWS CORRESPONDENT: Good evening, Keith. There's a lot of enthusiasm tonight in the Clinton camp. I just talked to Terry McAuliffe, her campaign manager, finance manager, and they think they've got a real shot at both Ohio and Texas. Even though there's been some tightening, they're getting very good reports from the field in Rhode Island.

So there's a lot of excitement, frankly, in the Clinton camp that hasn't been here in a while. She has been the one person who has been placid throughout. She's been working really hard. She's up at plant gates before 5:30 in the morning, doing interviews, going out and going all over Texas, before we came here to Ohio. There was a lot of panic, frankly, within some parts of the team, a lot of dissension in the rank, back stabbing, back and forth, finger pointing, the blame game.

She's been the one person who has really held it all together throughout this period. She seems to feel - I talked to her earlier today in Ohio. She thinks she's got a real shot at this.

OLBERMANN: What does she do, Andrea, if she wins one of the above and not both in the big states,if she wins Texas or Ohio, but not the other. What does she do about this quote from 13 days ago when her husband said in Texas, it she wins Texas and Ohio, I think she'll be the nominee. If you, meaning the Texans, don't deliver for her, I don't think she can be. Does she disavow him from the campaign? What happens?

MITCHELL: I asked her about that today. We were in a Mexican restaurant in Dallas. She said, look I'm not going to make predictions. I think we're doing very well in Ohio. I think we're competitive in Texas. I'm not going to talk about tomorrow. She's really not dealing with that very tough question.

Bill Richardson, who is about to endorse Obama, we were told, said on Sunday on "Face the Nation" that she had to win both. He said, whoever is ahead in delegates Wednesday morning should be the nominee. That clearly will be Barack Obama, because even if she wins these state tonight, she's not going to catch up in delegates. She doesn't have enough of a lead in any of these states from, everything we've been able to tell so far and from the turn out so far, to catch up in delegates.

So that's not going to happen. What about Ed Rendell? When I did an interview with him last Thursday, the governor of the next big state of Pennsylvania, April 22nd, he said that if she doesn't win both, she has to get out. That's not the signal coming from her. She said yesterday, I'm just warming up.

MATTHEWS: Andrea, candidates never admit strategy, but it seems like Senator Clinton has a tough strategy that may well work tonight, which is one, throw the kitchen sink, everything from NAFTA, even discussing the guy's religion, going after him in a number of regards very effectively. At the same time, going around the softer talk shows, "SNL," Jon Stewart, and offering herself up almost as a target for witticism in a way that makes her somewhat vulnerable.


Is this calculated, this one-two punch of hers.

MITCHELL: You bet. They think the NAFTA argument really worked to bring home the labor vote, the white men, the working class vote in Ohio, a critical vote. She can't win Ohio without that. She seems to be doing better, according to the early indications that they're getting from the field, among women. Women are coming home to her, she thinks. That could be portraying herself as a victim, but also portraying herself as a fighter.

She's been very effective at the rallies I've been to. They're not that well attended. But in Ohio and in Texas, it seems to be effective to describe herself as a fighter. You first heard that in real percussive way in the debate in Cleveland last week. Every since, she's been talking about herself as a fighter over and over again. Then, as you pointed out, the second part of the punch is to go soft, to be on the David Letterman, to be on "Saturday Night Live," to do Jon Stewart last night.

That portrays the warmer, kinder Hillary Clinton that we saw at the tail end of the New Hampshire primary election, when she also was able to come back. They are pretty enthusiastic.

OLBERMANN: Andrea Mitchell at the Columbus Clinton headquarters.

Thank you Andrea. We'll check back with you later on.

Before we go out to Lee Cowan, just to give you an idea of what's happening with the weather and voting in Ohio. Claremont County, Ohio ran out of Democratic ballots by early evening. There was also an outage of that in Milford by 2:45 in the afternoon. Any thought that there was going to be suppressed Ohio voting by weather at least is out the window. As promised to the Obama campaign, it's already based in San Antonio, Texas.

Lee Cowan has been following the Obama campaign all through the primary season for us and joins us now from there. Lee, good evening.

LEE COWAN, NBC NEWS CORRESPONDENT: Hi, Keith. I think what the Obama

campaign is saying tonight is this really all about the delegate count. As

Andrea was saying, they suggest that the Hillary Clinton campaign keeps

moving the goal post a little bit. First, they had to win both states.


First they had to win both states big. Now it seems to be that they are

saying, if they win both states relatively closely or even one of them,

that would be enough to keep them in the race.

What the Obama campaign keeps pointing out is that it seems to then be a mathematical impossibility, really, unless she does exceptionally well. Even if she does, it's still not going to be enough to make up that delegate gap. They think, no matter what happens tonight, that they are still going to come out ahead in the delegate count and ahead in terms of the number of states won.

OLBERMANN: Are they getting the Richardson endorsement? We heard Andrea say that, that there was some anticipation of that for Obama. Do you hear anything about that there?

COWAN: They have been talking back and forth. They have been talking quite extensively over the last couple of weeks, but nothing firm. They clearly want it. The Campaign says they would certainly love to have Richardson's support. But no note on it yet, no.

OLBERMANN: Lee Cowan at the Municipal Auditorium in San Antonio with the Obama campaign. We'll check back with you, of course, presently. Thank you, Lee.

Let's go back to Norah O'Donnell, more exit polling numbers. The number of independents voting tonight. This can be interrupted in a lot of ways, but I guess the raw number is the most important thing off the top.

O'DONNELL: Yes, it's really interesting, Keith. You know, independents have been a factor in this year's Democratic presidential race. Tonight, the early exit polls show independents are a significant chunk of the electorate in Ohio, Texas, Rhode Island and Vermont. Our NBC News exit polls suggest that with the GOP race essentially settled, there are some Republicans who are choosing to vote in the Democratic primary.

First, let's look at the party identification mix in Ohio; there are 22 percent of those voting consider themselves independents there. You can see that there. That's more than in 2000. But look at the Republican cross overs down here. That's really interesting, ten percent this year. That's five times as many as in the last election.

Now, in Texas, independents make up one in four of the Democratic primary voters. This group is larger than they were four years ago. See that. Also in Texas, there is again that bigger Republican cross over in this primary than in the last election. It's kind of interesting.

You wonder whether there's some Republican appeal, whether they want to vote in the primary. Also, Keith, Rush Limbaugh has called for Republicans to cross over and vote for Clinton, essentially to bloody up Obama. Those were the woods he used. He may have planted that idea, in a sense, quote, unquote, giving permission to Republicans to cross party lines.


But that is a significant number that has decided to vote today.

OLBERMANN: It's even more than just bloodying up, Norah. Bill Clinton went on Rush Limbaugh's show with a guest host this afternoon, if you can imagine such a thing. That's how desperate we are for votes in this primary.

MATTHEWS: There were some Republicans I heard from today in Texas who voted for Hillary Clinton, because they want her to be the nominee. They switched over for that reason. That's really strategory, as President Bush would put it.

Anyway, NBC News chief White House correspondent David Gregory is here with us to talk about some of the questions that may get answered tonight. David, I think the hardest job tonight may well be to write a headline tomorrow morning that puts this all together.

DAVID GREGORY, NBC NEWS CHIEF WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Yes, I think

that's right. I think the question is whether there was a game changer.

That's what we've been waiting for for weeks, maybe even the last couple of

months. Can Hillary Clinton do something to change the dynamic in this

race. She's down 11 and 0.

What's changed now, we go back to New Hampshire - we know something changed there in the last couple of days before the vote. Has something changed in the past week. She was up big in Texas and Ohio. Barack Obama came back. He's had all of this resurgence. He's kept on going.

Has Hillary Clinton been able to change the dynamic last week? Questions about his positioning on NAFTA, a big issue, free trade with working class Democrats in Ohio. On the question of experience; in other words, has she been able to not out-change him, not out-brand him, but take him down? Does Hillary Clinton get something in the way of the results tonight, do voters answer a question for her about her tactics in the last week that give her a road map going forward, specifically going negative against Barack Obama and trying to take down what he's offering as a change agent, as a new kind of politics.

MATTHEWS: Can she win that argument in the face of Barack - Senator Obama's argument on the airplane today that he had 20 - she had 20 point leads in Ohio and Texas and he's narrowed them down to a contest in both states?


GREGORY: Right. I think it's a tough argument for her to make and for her to win, unless she wins. Then she's going to be able to say, yes, he was on this trajectory that had him propelled forward. He cut into this lead, but I was able to change the complexion of this race and make the argument that there is buyers' remorse, that there is hesitancy. That once you get right down to it, when voters get in that booth, what stops them for voting for Barack Obama?

Is it the experience question? Is it, gee, if there's a crisis, do I trust her judgment, her instincts, the fact that she's had proximity to power. She knows how the White House works. Is there something that has been raised about him that makes me question his ability to be the president.

I think ultimately she is in the position of raising doubt here, trying to raise reasonable doubt. What she's been unsuccessful at doing is positioning herself as the real change agent. Hillary Clinton's campaign may go back and say, how is it that we were not able to put forward the first woman candidate for the presidency, who had so much momentum, so much establishment backing, and not make her the change agent, to be on this edge of history.

How did he steal all of that? They may be beyond that, but they're not beyond trying to take him down from being everything that he may appear to be to so many.

MATTHEWS: I wonder if that's an appealing story line for the press that's covering this campaign, to say, hey, this game ain't over yet, which is an old broadcaster's claim. Stay with the game. It's not over. Also, that there's a new direction for this campaign, that is going to be this buyers' remorse. That is a story line that might be quite sellable.

GREGORY: It may be, except for the math. That's what Barack Obama's team keeps saying. Stop talking about this in terms of momentum. Talk about the math. Which metric are we supposed to use here. The truth is, if Barack Obama had lost the last 11 contests, would this be viewed differently. Would he still be viewed as having a legitimate shot to get in the game.

One of the problems for Barack Obama he has not won the big ones, California, New York, Ohio. If he can't win there, Hillary Clinton is going to say, look, these are big Democratic states going against a guy like McCain, who can win independent cross over votes and can play in those states.

MATTHEWS: Thank you, David Gregory.

OLBERMANN: Senator John Kerry was the Democratic nominee four years ago. This year, he's stated his support publicly and vociferously for Barack Obama for president. The senator joins us now from Washington. Good to talk to you.

SEN. JOHN KERRY (D), MASSACHUSETTS: Glad to be with you, Keith.

OLBERMANN: Let me read you a quote from Senator Clinton in Toledo yesterday that was a variation of something she said in Austin, Texas Saturday. The senator said, quote, "I think that I have a lifetime of experience that I will bring to the White House. I know Senator McCain has a lifetime of experience he will bring to the White House. Senator Obama has a speech he gave in 2002."

Without discussing the merits of that, did that surprise you? I didn't see an awful lot of coverage of that. It seemed to me that kind of works against Senator Obama in the short run. Did Senator Clinton not say something that works against Senator Clinton in the event she's in the general election?


KERRY: More than that. I think it works against her right now, because it is such an inappropriate and completely untrue statement to make about Barack Obama. Obviously, Barack Obama has a lifetime of experience. His lifetime of experience goes all the way back to Harvard Law School, to the Harvard Law Review, to the streets of Chicago, to teaching law, to being a partner in a law firm, to being a state senator.

In fact, Barack Obama has been a legislator longer than Hillary Clinton. He has more legislative experience than Hillary Clinton. He has more foreign policy experience now than either Ronald Reagan or George Bush had before they became president. In fact, he has more foreign policy experience than Bill Clinton did before he became president.

So it's on its face a kind of insulting and ridiculous comment which doesn't serve her well, I think, in the long run.

OLBERMANN: Do you think that, as the Clinton campaign has already offered tonight, as a postulation of what's happened in the last week, that Senator Obama has taken a series of hits in the last week's time?

KERRY: They have thrown a lot at him, obviously. But what's interesting to me, you guys were talking about the metrics. Look, the question ought to be appropriately asked - I say this to Mr. Gregory, where is - why are they not voting for her overwhelmingly. Everybody knows her. She's been around. Why are they not voting as they were 20 points ahead a few weeks ago?

The story here is that this candidate, Barack Obama, is building an unbelievable coalition across the country. Indeed, he may not win in California or New York or wherever it is, but he took 42 percent out of the vote of New York, her backyard. It's rather extraordinary that he won more delegates in his home state against her than she was able to win in her home state against him. I think that tells you an enormous story.

When you add that to the fact that it's obviously razor thin margin in these states tonight, the bottom line is, as it always has been, as the Clinton campaign itself said it was a little while ago, about delegates. If it's about delegates and it's a razor margin thin, it doesn't really matter who won what tonight. I bet you he wins more delegates as a margin in Vermont than she wins if she wins Ohio or Texas.

That's the story tonight, that mathematically it's very difficult for her to win the nomination if these races are very close tonight.

OLBERMANN: Senator John Kerry of the Obama camp this time around.

Thank you again, senator.

MATTHEWS: Let's go back to the panel with Joe Scarborough.

SCARBOROUGH: Thank you very much. Gene, what matters more right now to the super delegates, the math or the headlines? If Hillary Clinton wins three or four states, she still may be locked out mathematically, but the headlines are awfully enticing.


ROBINSON: Look, if she wins three or four states, it seems to me that what this does is provide for another month or two or however long of campaigning.

SCARBOROUGH: We keep hearing that mathematically it's impossible for her to catch up.

ROBINSON: Right, but it creates a perception. You have the headlines. So I think then the super delegates say probably, well, let's wait and see. What happens next week and what happens the week after that? I think Obama is likely to rack up some more wins. Then the pendulum swings again.

SCARBOROUGH: It swings back and forth. But Pat Buchanan, if she wins Ohio, big if, if she wins Texas, the super delegates aren't going to be sitting there with calculators. They are going to say, Obama just can't knock her out.

BUCHANAN: She's come into Ohio and Texas, and you're telling me she drops out if she wins them both. That's preposterous. Of course, she'll go ahead. She'll go ahead if she wins Ohio and Rhode Island. If she wins Ohio, I think she's going to go ahead. She should. Who are these people, excuse me, telling her to get out of the race. She's been working for ten years for this. Her husband has.

She's running a strong race. As I mentioned earlier, she's like Reagan, trailing four into the convention -

SCARBOROUGH: Rachel, I love Jonathan Alter, but that guy has basically taken a broomstick and just keeps - a lot of other pundits are saying get out, get out.

MADDOW: Anybody saying the mathematical impossibility line I think needs to take a look at what's happened so far in counting the delegates. Every network and every newspaper has a different count.

SCARBOROUGH: Not only that, John Lewis - look at John Lewis, Super delegate. I'm for Hillary Clinton. No, I'm not. I'm for Barack Obama. They can flip.

MADDOW: This will be not decided -

(CROSS TALK)

BUCHANAN: If she wins Ohio and Texas, there will be a freeze on the super delegates. They will panic.


SCARBOROUGH: All right. Panic sets in. Fear and loathing. Let's go back to Chris and Keith.

OLBERMANN: We'll suspend the rule of mathematics for the continuation of the evening at least. When Chris and I return, the first results of the night, the actual math, as polls close in Vermont. We'll be able to project something about what's going on in the Great State.

Then about 30 minutes from now, the first results from the critical state, Ohio. Chris Matthews and I will join you after this.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

CHRIS MATTHEWS, MSNBC ANCHOR: It's 7:00 p.m. on the east coast. Polls are now closed in the state of Vermont. Barack Obama is the projected winner on the Democratic side. He has beaten Hillary Clinton in the first contest of the night.

On the Republican side, John McCain is the projected winner, winning all 17 delegates and moving him one step closer to clinching the Republican nomination.

Good evening, I'm Chris Matthews. I'm here with Keith Olbermann. One state is down but the big ones are yet to come. Keith.

KEITH OLBERMANN, MSNBC ANCHOR: Although we have a call in Vermont, we don't have a number. That's what is so critical. It's 64-40 or fight.

MATTHEWS: It will decide whether it's 10 to five in delegates or nine to six. It's coming down to delegates again.

OLBERMANN: Once again, Norah O'Donnell is going to be with us throughout the evening with the exit poll numbers and joins us now with a preview of this hour's selection. These continue to fascinate, Norah.

NORAH O'DONNELL, MSNBC CORRESPONDENT: Vermont, of course, an incredibly liberal state. Remember, Ben & Jerry, the ice cream makers, they endorsed Barack Obama, the state party chair, he even endorsed Barack Obama. Vermont, also the state home to Howard Dean, chairman of the DNC chairman.

One of the interesting things about Vermont is that we found that while the economy is very important in Vermont, the war in Iraq is almost as important. I'm going to have a little more for you on that in just a couple minutes.


OLBERMANN: Dr. Dean, by the way, saying he did not vote for president today, even, staying neutral to the last.

MATTHEWS: NBC News' chief White House correspondent David Gregory is with us. We have the first result of the evening. It will not be a sweep for Senator Clinton tonight. She can win three not four.

DAVID GREGORY, NBC NEWS CORRESPONDENT: Chris, now Barack Obama is 12 and 0. The last 12 contests, he's got a pretty good streak going. As you know, we'll watch Vermont for the numbers. One of the big questions is, does he gets more delegates out of Vermont than a victory for Hillary Clinton can net in Ohio. It becomes a numbers game as the night wears on.

MATTHEWS: I'm looking at NCAA ratings tonight. I noticed that UNC is number one with two losses. Are we going to cover it that way? If Hillary wins two tonight, does she break the streak or does it look like another 13 and two situation?

GREGORY: It will be played both ways. The Obama team is going to argue that this is about math, not momentum. Now, Clinton is going to be making the opposite argument. The two big wins for her in Texas and Ohio mean buyers remorse for Barack Obama. It changes the story line. It gets into what has she done over the last week to change the dynamic of the race.

MATTHEWS: How did we decide whether Barack Obama went from 20 behind in Texas and in Ohio to a close finish, if that's what it is, or that he faded?

GREGORY: Well, because we're going to have to point to what happened in the last week and does it matter. Was he distracted by Hillary Clinton? Did he get into a situation where he was thrown off his game to respond to her attacks. They threw the kitchen sink at the Obama campaign. Did that trip him up? Was he unable to close the deal? Where was he unable to close the deal, if she is able to win Ohio and Texas.

Big states, including New York, California, that's what Hillary Clinton has been able to do to keep herself in the game. That's what Barack Obama wants to try to turn around.

MATTHEWS: Let's look at the big issue she's raised in Ohio, which may well help her tonight. We don't know yet about the results at all, and we really don't. NAFTA, does that carry. Is that portable to Pennsylvania?

GREGORY: I think it could be among working class voters. Again, she's trying to put together a coalition that doesn't break. We're going to look closely tonight at the gender gap. We're going to look at the racial split of the voters. We're going to look at independent voters and where they went. We've seen in these contests that Barack Obama has been winning that he's cutting in among the women, women who are voting on the Democratic side and among that working class vote.

As you know, in Ohio, in Pennsylvania, the economy may be decisive. Free trade, the issues of globalization, play right into that. That, as somebody pointed out today, the Clintons are to the economy what Russia is to caviar. That's the bread and butter issue, what she wants it to be, that along with the experience question.

OLBERMANN: What scenario, David, do you see as tripping the wire on the release of endorsements? We heard about Bill Richardson and Obama. Maybe they are close to the deal there. Is there something that happens tonight that could make tomorrow, March 5th, national endorsement day? To use Chris's analogy of the NCAA, it will be like letter of intent day tomorrow for all the people who haven't declared one way or another in the Democratic party.


GREGORY: I think one of the things that we've seen - again, we're up to 12 of the last contests going to Barack Obama, yet Hillary Clinton has successfully, even though there's been a lot of stories about is she about to be out, should she bow out, they have kept her candidacy alive and argued its relevance. If she wins two tonight, she's able in a very passionate way to say there's something that's changing. There's a change in the dynamic. I should keep going.

I think if she loses one of the big ones, Texas or Ohio, I think it gets more difficult. I think you then see somebody like a Bill Richardson say, we've got to focus on the math here. If after this Barack Obama is still ahead in this pledged delegate lead, we have to move onto a general election.

OLBERMANN: David Gregory, chief White House correspondent, not in the White House but sitting in the room with us. We'll be back with you later, David. Thank you. Let's go back to Columbus and the Clinton campaign, where Andrea Mitchell is standing by. We begin with her. Andrea, one down to Vermont to Obama. What's the reaction there.

ANDREA MITCHELL, NBC NEWS CORRESPONDENT: They did not expect Vermont. That is the most anti-war state. That is Senator Bernie Sanders, liberals who have been against Hillary Clinton since she voted in favor of the war in 2002. They weren't counting on that. They still think they are competitive in Rhode Island and think they are going to win Ohio and have a shot of Texas. There's a lot of enthusiasm here tonight, Keith.

OLBERMANN: And the thoughts towards - do they have any more information on the states that we have yet to see? Obviously, most importantly of all, Ohio and Texas?

MITCHELL: Their field commanders are telling them things are good. The results so far, the turnout, the fact that labor, white men seem to have returned in Ohio. They think the NAFTA argument worked for her there. Her tougher fighting spirit, which she laid out in our debate last week. And they think they are competitive in Texas because of a big Hispanic vote.

There's been a generational split among Hispanics in what our reporting has told us. Younger Latinos have not been as enthusiastic about her as the elders. So it remains to be seen as to whether that vote is a Clinton vote or an Obama vote.

OLBERMANN: What would actually have to happen, Andrea, for Senator Clinton to say, no, this is enough and draw a line tomorrow. Obviously, we heard from President Clinton two weeks ago saying she needed Ohio and Texas or he didn't see how she could get the nomination. That statement has been Ron Zeiglered (ph) into the ether. It's no longer operative. What is there that is operative on this most important of decisions, most difficult decisions of any candidate?

MITCHELL: Bottom line, if she loses Texas and Ohio, there's no way she could proceed. The pressure would be too great from super delegates and her own internal clock would tell her time is up. That said, I think if she is a very strong finisher in Texas and wins in Ohio, the signals now are that she might stay in, despite what her husband said back ten days ago or maybe longer than that.

There are a number of people, Clinton supporters, who think she should get out if she does not win both. I think her husband might be one of them. I know that Ed Rendell, the governor of Pennsylvania, is one. Bill Richardson, the governor of New Mexico. Hillary Clinton might want to fight on if she thinks she's come close enough in Texas.

OLBERMANN: That's Andrea Mitchell at the Columbus Athanaum (ph), the Clinton headquarters for tonight. Thank you, Andrea. We'll be back to you later in the evening.

MATTHEWS: Let's go to the Obama headquarters in San Antonio with Lee Cowan. Let me ask you Lee about this reverse question here. Has Obama made a mistake of walking into a box canyon, wherein he can't win unless he wins everything?


LEE COWAN, NBC NEWS CORRESPONDENT: Certainly, I think the expectations are, as he came into this, that hew as going to continue this winning streak. If he doesn't do that, I don't think it necessarily puts a stop to the campaign, by any sense, but it does slow things down a little bit. It does - if Hillary Clinton was able to win Texas and Ohio, it does give her that ability to say that she did win all the big states, which is an argument that is going to be tough.

The counter-argument from the Obama campaign is well, she may have won a lot of big states, but we won a lot of big states as well, and we're still ahead in terms of the numbers of states won and in terms of the delegate count as well.

MATTHEWS: It's a long way. We've got Wyoming coming up Saturday, caucuses, where, of course, Obama has done well in smaller states. Then we also have coming up Mississippi, where he might do extremely well again. He could get back on his streak again after tonight. How does he - if he has a mixed result tonight, how does he bandage himself up and go back to the streak again.

COWAN: I think you're right. He's already planning to head to Wyoming this weekend, will certainly be in Mississippi next week. Then, of course, the big next state up is Pennsylvania. That could be like Iowa all over again, in a sense of it's going to be a long stretch of time. We're probably going to be criss-crossing the state, going to every nook and cranny there.

I think the Obama campaign has always said that the longer they are able to stay in a state, the longer they have to introduce him to the audiences, the better they do. I think the focus is really going to be on that day in that state, because, as you said, I think he may do pretty well in the next states coming up. He may get back on track a little bit. With Pennsylvania looming out there, still tempered a bit.

MATTHEWS: I want to talk to you later tonight about him in Pennsylvania. It's fascinating. Six media markets, seven weeks. Anyway, Lee Cowan with the Obama campaign. Let's go right now to Eugene Miller. He's an Ohio State representative who supports Hillary Clinton for president, despite facing pressure to switch to Obama's side. How do you feel the pressure tonight?

REP. EUGENE MILLER (D), OHIO STATE REPRESENTATIVE: I was feeling a lot of the pressure today. I was out at the polls. I'm running for re-election. I've been in the polls here in Cleveland since 5:30 this morning. A couple of persons, who - my opponent, all he was saying was vote for him because he's supporting Obama. A lot of persons who want to vote for me was questioning me about my support for Senator Clinton.

MATTHEWS: What's your answer?

MILLER: I just stood up up and said that Senator Clinton has the best plan for Ohio, and the best plan for my district, which is the second poorest in the state of Ohio.

MATTHEWS: How long can you hold out? Suppose your district, your constituents vote clearly the other way tonight. I don't know if they will. If they do vote overwhelmingly for Senator Obama, can you still stand the heat?

MILLER: I'm going to still stand the heat, because I'm in a lot of heat right now.

MATTHEWS: What do you hear from the Clinton people? Are they promising you, stay tight, we'll take care of you? What words of comfort do you get from your leader, the Clintons?


MILLER: The word of confidence I get from my leaders is my Congresswoman, Stephanie Tubbs Jones, that we hear working on the ground and throughout state and throughout the country to make sure this gets done. I have a lot of faith in our Congresswoman and her leadership and her commitment to Senator Clinton. I'm here working on the ground to make sure we win Ohio.

MATTHEWS: If she switches will you?

MILLER: I will have to make that decision.

MATTHEWS: Would you likely switch if she did.

MILLER: I would have to make the decision.

MATTHEWS: You know what I'm trying to find out here, whether we have the old system of politics I grew up with in a big city, whereby there are bosses and there are troops. Are you a troop?

MILLER: I'm a strong trooper, yes. I'm a strong trooper.

MATTHEWS: So, as goes Stephanie Tubbs Jones, so goes Mr. Miller.

MILLER: So goes Stephanie Tubbs Jones, so goes the campaign for Senator Clinton.

MATTHEWS: You out-thought me. Thank you very much Eugene Miller, who is standing tough for the Clintons.

OLBERMANN: Well done, sir. Let's check back with our panel. Joe Scarborough in the role of chieftain. Joe?

JOE SCARBOROUGH, MSNBC ANCHOR: Thank you so much. The question is, if Hillary Clinton does well tonight - we don't know yet - if she does well in Ohio and Texas, then do they see that as reward for rolling up their sleeves and getting tough on Obama?


RACHEL MADDOW, AIR AMERICA RADIO: You know, Joe, the thing I've been wondering this entire campaign about Obama is whether or not he can withstand Republican attacks. We're starting to find that out. She has been attacking him in many of the ways that Republican attack, attacking him as soft on national security.

She's gone after him in many of the same ways that Republicans will. So we're starting to see what the affect of that is going to be. It may answer more some questions about Obama than it does about Hillary.

SCARBOROUGH: Pat Buchanan, Barack Obama, if, in fact, he's gotten a free pass through this whole campaign, it's not bad for him to fight Hillary Clinton all the way to Denver, is it? For him to get his sea legs before he gets pummeled by the Republican attack machine.

PAT BUCHANAN, MSNBC POLITICAL ANALYST: I wouldn't agree with that. For her to beat him now, she's really going to have to start working on him. She's been doing that. The press has been doing that for the last ten days. I think Barack would like this thing over. I'll tell you this, if Hillary - it's hypothetical - should win Ohio and Texas, the headlines will be enormous.

First, she'll have a tremendous victory. She'll have momentum. Secondly, it will say all this stuff by Farrakhan and NAFTA, and these other things, it bit; it worked; it broke his momentum. That would be a terrible message if that comes out.

SCARBOROUGH: This is the first time that Barack Obama has withstood one attack after the other from the press and the Clintons. This morning, we played a clip over and over again where she says, yes, I have life experiences; John McCain has life experiences; Barack Obama gave a speech. One speech.

EUGENE ROBINSON, "THE WASHINGTON POST": As Rachel said, it was inevitable that he would face attacks. Your don't get to waltz to be president. I tend to agree that it is actually a good thing for him to experience this now, in part because he's showing he's got a pretty steep learning curving. He doesn't always do everything right at first, but tends to get better as time goes on.

So I think you've got to look beyond. You know, I'm booking our passage for Puerto Rico. I think we're going to be there June 6th, presenting the panel of course.

SCARBOROUGH: Of course. The panel has to go to Puerto Rico. All right, very good. Thank you so much. Back to Chris and Keith.

OLBERMANN: All right. Anti up and you can all go to Puerto Rico, and no problem. If you're looking for us to take you there, forget it. Thank you Joe. Let's get the latest numbers from more exit polling. Obama has won Vermont, at least according to our NBC News projection.

Let's see what the exit numbers say about that and how it happened from Norah O'Donnell. Norah.

O'DONNELL: That is Vermont right there, you can see. As we pan out here to the entire United States, all the blue states are the states that Barack Obama has won tonight. As we talk about Vermont, it is one of the most liberal states in the country, also one of the most anti-war states. Let's look at the exit polls.


In Vermont, while the economy was the number one issue, look at the war in Iraq, almost just as important. In fact, ranks higher than we've seen in any other primary state, with 38 percent saying it is their top concern. Why might that be? According to the Department of Defense, Vermont has suffered the highest per capita rate of casualties in Iraq.

For those voters who considered Iraq the most important issue, take a look at this, Obama took those voters three to one. You see him with 74 percent of the vote to Clinton's just 24 percent of the vote. Another area where Barack Obama scored well in Vermont, they say he's the best to fill the position of commander in chief. That is a position that Hillary Clinton has made key to her campaign. Here in Vermont, Barack Obama took the majority, 51 percent to Clinton's 42 percent.

Barack Obama was seen as the candidate who was most inspirational, the one who truly inspired voters on the campaign trail. Look at that, 85 percent. A big win for Barack Obama here in Vermont is very important. The campaign believes, they say, that they can net more delegates out of Vermont tonight than even if Hillary Clinton wins both Ohio and Texas. And the reason for that is simple, if he has a significant margin of victory there in Vermont.

OLBERMANN: Right, Norah. That Chuck Todd number is 64 percent; 63 percent means he gets like a nine-six split on those 15 delegates; 64 percent means Obama gets ten-five. We come back with more exit polling from Norah O'Donnell later on. Thank you, Norah.

Tim Russert, of course, NBC Washington bureau chief, moderator of "Meet the Press." Vermont not unexpected. The margin, if it is 64 percent or more, also probably would not be unexpected. We don't have that. We simply have a projected victory. we don't have any idea, no way to characterize it.

Is there anything predictive now out of this result coming in the way it has?

TIM RUSSERT, "MEET THE PRESS": Keith, you're absolutely right. The number of delegates is so critical. Vermont could really be a treasure trove compared to the closeness we're seeing tonight in other states. A coalition that Obama put together in Vermont truly is extraordinary. It's a white state. Two-thirds of the voters were over the age of 45. He carried white women. All the things we had seen him doing in caucus states and on Potomac Tuesday.

If that model could ever be applied to Ohio and Texas, they wouldn't be close. We don't expect that. It's the white ethnic voter in Ohio we have to watch. Particularly, once again, white ethnic women in their 60s making less than 50,000 dollars. Once we unlock that puzzle, how many of them voted and how big was the margin for Hillary Clinton, we'll know a whole lot more.

Clearly, the magnitude of the victory in Vermont is important in this delegate by delegate count, because if the races are close in proportional allocation, you don't win any more delegates than the other candidate.

OLBERMANN: Not to wish ill of what happens in Iraq, but simply to describe it perhaps as an issue that could at any time resurge in terms of its importance even within the confines of the Democratic nominating process, let alone the general election; that number in Vermont that the economy is 39 percent, the choice of - most important issue of 39 percent of the voters there and Iraq is 38 percent. You get these kind of results that appear to be happening for Senator Obama there. Is there predictive quality to that in terms of what might happen if this thing, in fact, goes through Pennsylvania beyond, into the convention itself? Is that of some value?

RUSSERT: Yes. If the issue is the war, Senator Obama has the decided advantage in a Democratic primary, because he came out against the war and Senator Clinton voted for it. What we're seeing in the exit polls in Texas is the war is a big issue there, not as big as the economy, but it's very considerable. States where the populists have paid a price with their sons and daughters, it remains and festers as an issue.

If something were to change on the ground in Iraq and it began to explode, literally, in politics in America, I think it would be to Senator Obama's advantage. Absolutely.


OLBERMANN: The NAFTA numbers that came out in some of the earlier exit polling, obviously everybody expected that. Basically, it's the NAFTA stinks exit poll, which suggests that 81 percent of Ohio thinks NAFTA stinks, at least that it takes jobs away rather than adding to them. The number out of Texas seems surprisingly lopsided against the way it was expected, and perhaps certainly against the way perhaps Senator Obama expected it 59-24 in Texas thinking NAFTA takes jobs away.

Is that maybe the most surprising we've seen out of the exit polls. What does it mean for Senator Obama and Clinton out of Texas.

RUSSERT: It demonstrates what a profound change there has been with hard core Democrats on the issue of trade. It was always considered something you could appeal to with a populist message in selected areas in the country. If, in fact, there's that much negative attitude towards trade, I think you'll see Democratic candidates be very, very careful about what they say about trade and NAFTA, not only in Ohio, but in every state caucus coming up as this thing plays out, particularly in a state like Pennsylvania, Keith.

It is very, very striking how trade really has become a litmus test issue for the Democratic voter.

OLBERMANN: Whatever you decide to say, candidates, do not talk about it with anybody from Canada. Tim Russert, thanks. We'll be back with you after the polls close in Ohio. We're counting down to that half hour, as the case may be, nine minutes hence or so, when polls will close in Ohio. When we return, Chuck Todd by the numbers. There he is. He's counting numbers as we speak, the delegate count.

MSNBC's Decision 2008 coverage continuing right after this.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

OLBERMANN: We're moments away from poll closing time in Ohio at 7:30 Eastern time, five minutes and 20 seconds from right now. We'll have a characterization of some sort of what's going on in the Republican and Democratic primaries there. In the interim, let's go to the peanut gallery, NBC News political director Chuck Todd, by the numbers. Is that it?

CHUCK TODD, NBC NEWS POLITICAL DIRECTOR: I guess that's what we'll call it, by the numbers. We're going to take a look at how to follow the Ohio returns tonight. I don't think we've given anything away that we think the Democratic side is going to be very close.

Let's do an estimation. Let's say she wins by a margin of 51-49; her delegate haul, at best, will either be plus five or, ready for this, minus one. Here is how she could be minus one; five Congressional districts to watch, the third, the 18th, the 17th, 10 and 11. These are districts that either have odd numbers or places where Obama could run up the score. In 10 or 11, this is Kucinich district and Stephanie Tubbs Jones.

If he nets four delegates, if he nets in the Stephanie Tubbs Jones a five-two split, rather than a four-three, if he goes into Kucinich and nets a four-two, if he goes into the old Bob Ney district, which is now Zach Space, the Democrat represents that, if he wins that three-two, instead of losing it three-two, this ex-urban Cincinnati district, the third, if he wins that one three-two, that's how he could actually get more delegates and lose tonight.

At best, if she gets the better parts of those things, holds Obama's number in the Kucinich, and the Cleveland area, in the Kucinich and the Tubbs Jones district to what she hopes to do, she could net delegates. Again, with plus five or minus one, what's that plus five. Five delegates is what Obama could get out of Vermont. Five delegates is what Clinton could get out of Ohio tonight.


Watch those five districts, guys, the 3rd, the 17th, the 18th, and those two Cleveland districts, the 10th and the 11th. That's how we'll know who won Ohio.

OLBERMANN: Good grief. Can you imagine that? Only sympathy to a winner of Ohio who would have to spin explaining why she didn't get more delegates or he didn't get more delegates, as the case may be. Chuck Todd by the numbers at the delegate map. Thank you, Chuck.

I've said it before and I'll say it again, if I were running for president, god forbid that would ever happen, we would move to Brazil. If I did, Chuck Todd would be the first person I would hire. Polls close in Ohio in three and a half minutes. Our first characterization of that race comes up.

MSNBC's Decision 2008 coverage continuing after this.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

OLBERMANN: At 7:30 in the East, the polls having closed in Ohio, NBC News now projects that the Ohio Democratic Primary is too close to call at this hour. Too close to call in Ohio with the polls closed after what is reported to be very heavy voting on the Democratic side. The Republican Primary in Ohio, nowhere near as dramatic. John McCain, the projected winner within 29 seconds of poll closure. And we can project that he will receive at least 58 delegates from Ohio.

So Senator McCain's march probably to conclude tonight towards the official declaration, that official number of 1,191 to nominate, 1,192 for safety's sake, to avoid a tie, will probably be crossed at some point later this evening the way this is going for John McCain. Two for McCain.

Let's go to Vermont again where at 7:00 the polls closed. And we projected at that point that Senator Barack Obama was the projected winner, not a surprise to either camp there. There is no real vote total to count yet as the total number of votes already in the books remains under 1,000. So with voting still at triple digits, it's not yet time to even report a hard number.

Among the Republicans, the projected winner again, Senator McCain over Huckabee. We don't have a characterization on the margin there. And of course, to preview what is ahead, Texas closes in an hour-and-a-half, a little less than that, 9:00 Eastern, 8:00 Central. The two big numbers of the night: Ohio too close to call, and of course, Texas, well, they haven't even closed the polls yet.

So what are we seeing so far, Chris?

MATTHEWS: Well, you have to wonder if you are a Democrat watching tonight and you want to win the general election if any of this tonight is good news. You've got to wonder whether it's good to put off the party agreement that Barack Obama is the candidate several weeks or months, perhaps after Pennsylvania, perhaps after Puerto Rico. Is that healthy?

Is it healthy to have a reversal in fortune in this campaign at this point which may stop short a victory for Senator Clinton but deliver a worse than glancing blow at Barack Obama? Is it useful for the party to face seven weeks in Pennsylvania, six media markets, $30 million spent in both directions blasting each other out of the saddle in a state you absolutely positively have to carry.


So neither one of these candidates, Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton, are perfectly customized for Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania prefers a beefier sort than either of these people, a more rustic, tougher sort than either of them. And yet both of them will be showing off each other's weaknesses for seven straight weeks, which is great news for the people in that state like Tom Ridge and David Gerard (ph) DeCarle (ph) and all of the other big Republicans who are hoping that John McCain can poach that state.

It's not good news to spend seven weeks in Pennsylvania blasting each other if you're Democrats.

OLBERMANN: And that begs another question as to when - and we have talked about this before, when senior Democrats and what senior Democrats might step in, how that would be possible, who is left to do it, who is there to convince somebody who has devoted 10 years of their life and millions of dollars raised to competing for a candidacy to say, no, no, I should go out for the sake of the party as common sense as it might even seem under certain circumstances?

MATTHEWS: Well, you and I who are on the air all the time know that the box this campaign came in is marked change. This country is in a rut, on the war in Iraq, impending wars elsewhere in the Middle East, the economy, everything, we're in a rut. We can't fix anything, whether it's Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security, we can't fix our health care system. Nothing is done since '65 when we did the civil rights bill.

People want something done. Will that something get done if we have an election that bogs down in Pennsylvania with seven weeks of Democrats killing each other? That's a question that everybody ought to ask, not just Hillary Clinton or Bill Clinton.

OLBERMANN: One candidate who is appealing to however hopeful or naive that audience might be, that actually thinks there is some small measure of change that might be accomplished, and the other one saying, no, no, don't believe in that change, it's just a good speech, that for seven weeks may be...

MATTHEWS: Yes. "Don't get your hopes up" is not a good campaign slogan for Democrats.

OLBERMANN: And it could be fatal to both people in the equation.

MATTHEWS: OK. Number two, they seem to be focusing a lot on who could knock the other one's head off right now. If Hillary Clinton has a good night tonight and she may have a three-for-four victory tonight, we don't know yet, nobody knows, is that good if it's purchased at the price of questioning the guy's religion?

Is it good for the country if it's purchased at a trade war with Canada? Do we really want protectionism all the way where we really fight to the wall as to who is the most protectionist, who is the most hating of NAFTA? Is that healthy for the country?

So I wonder, we have got six media markets in Pennsylvania, it will cost a fortune, we will burn lots of money. Let me go to Howard Fineman...

OLBERMANN: And what is the root and how many divots are there in that road?


MATTHEWS: And is there a yellow brick road for Senator Clinton, no matter happens tonight, that will take her to win this nomination without a fiery Denver come next August.

Howard Fineman, how is that for a hot potato to throw to you right now?

HOWARD FINEMAN, MSNBC POLITICAL ANALYST: Well, as a Pennsylvanian, I like the idea of the yellow brick road going through Pennsylvania. I'm not sure it's going to happen. I wanted to tell you guys over here in the "Listening Post" about Bill Richardson. There has been a lot of talk about him tonight.

So I got on the phone with Mike Stratton, who is probably his closest friend in the world. He talked to Bill Richardson just a few minutes, and here is what Bill Richardson said according to his good friend.

Bill Richardson has not endorsed anybody either publicly or privately. He hasn't come to a decision about endorsing anybody. That's number one. But Bill Richardson is sitting at home watching these results just like anybody else. And here is his standard. If Barack Obama wins both Texas and Ohio, I think Richardson will say that the party basically has spoken.

He, Richardson may still hang back in terms of endorsing but it will be over as far as Richardson is concerned if Obama wins both Texas and Ohio. If, on the other hand, Hillary wins both Texas and Ohio, Richardson's view is that the thing is wide open, and wide open again in a way that it hasn't been since the very beginning.

Now this being real life, the possibility of a split decision is obvious. If it's a split decision, I think it's Richardson's view that the party will begin to try to argue to Hillary, despite her stubbornness and her own views, that it's time to begin shutting it down, otherwise, as you say, Chris, it's a death of a thousand cuts in Pennsylvania and everywhere else.

So that's where Richardson is now. And I think Richardson is emblematic of the party leaders all over the country and how they are going to be viewing this tonight, because they are the ones now paradoxically who become very important as the average folks vote around the country.

MATTHEWS: It seems to me that Senator Clinton has been very effective in the last couple of days, at least by the lights of the media trying to cover this before the voting gets counted tonight, in bringing into question Barack Obama's trustworthiness in regard to his economic adviser's talk sotto voce with the Canadian consular official, and whether that was a wink that we're really not serious about looking at NAFTA again.

This whole question of his religious faith. Everyone knows he's a Christian. He knows it, we know it, yet Hillary Clinton took the longest time to answer Steve Kroft's question the other night. I don't know whether to read too much into it, but everybody has, that she played a bit of a game here, just as she did with John Kerry to get him out of the race a couple of months by taking that joke of his about, if you're stupid you take us to Iraq, as some kind of statement that if you flunk out at school you get drafted, the worst possible interpretation of that joke to kill John Kerry.

Is she now - on a root now to destroy the credibility of Barack Obama if that's the only way she can win this nomination?

FINEMAN: Two things, Chris. First of all, if you look at that big picture, Hillary is running an almost entirely negative campaign right now. We tend to forget that. That's what the "kitchen sink" is all about. It's not about her, it's about him. And she's hoping that the crossfire of her and her campaign and the McCain Republican campaign will weaken Obama dramatically.


The second thing is, Hillary Clinton doesn't do anything by accident. I watched that CBS tape of Steve Kroft's interview very, very carefully. And Hillary was brilliantly Machiavellian in sounding indignant while at the same time raising doubts about Obama. She said, why, I have no reason to think that he's anything other than a Christian.

I mean, that was - I'm a reporter and an analyst, not an editorial writer, but that was positively Nixonian in its pauses and innuendos. Look at it and look at it carefully, there was nothing accidental about it.

MATTHEWS: OK. Thank you, Howard Fineman.

OLBERMANN: Who just provided the phrase "brilliantly Machiavellian," that the - perhaps the Obama campaign can run with to discuss and describe Senator Clinton. Well, we'll see. We are joined now by the anchor emeritus of "NBC NIGHTLY NEWS," Tom Brokaw of NBC News joins us.

Always a pleasure, sir.

TOM BROKAW, FORMER NBC ANCHOR: My pleasure, Keith. I have been listening to Chris here for the last few moments. I know that he has a great personal fondness for Pennsylvania. But I'm just curious about why he allowed them to even put it on the calendar if it's not worth going all the way to Pennsylvania.

I mean, this is the calendar that we're dealing with, after all. And I have been looking at the exit poll in Ohio and in Texas. It's filled with some fascinating material, but a lot of contradictions as well. In Ohio, for example, the economy, three to one over the other issues, Chris, not the religion of Barack Obama. And Hillary Clinton, according to the people that we talked to, coming out of the polls, favored 52 to 46.

The war, Obama 55 to 44 percent. Only 18 percent of the people in Ohio said that that was the most important issue for them. Nineteen percent said health care, 52 percent of those people were for Hillary Clinton, 46 percent for Barack Obama. Figures were very similar in Texas. On two of the three, they were split on the economy 50-50.

Obama favored on the war, obviously, and Hillary Clinton on health care. So despite what we're saying, I think the voters are paying much more attention to those three primary issues that have been on the table here from the beginning, the economy, the war in Iraq, and health care.

And this comes during a week when gasoline hit $4 a barrel. Oil went to - pardon me, $4 a gallon, when oil went over $100 a barrel once again, when Barack - when Bernanke, who is the chairman of the Federal Reserve, said we now have to have banks think about making accommodations on the principal on home loans, we are in a very critical situation economically here. And that's what's on the minds of a lot of these voters.

And by the way, Chris, my old friend, it was John Edwards, not John Kerry, I think, that she went after earlier when you were talking about...

MATTHEWS: No, it was John Kerry and his joke that if you don't study in school you end up in Iraq.


BROKAW: Oh, that's right, you're right.

MATTHEWS: And that was right as...

BROKAW: I take that back, you're right, it was John Kerry.

MATTHEWS: Sort of a Vietnam-era joke when in fact she could have kindly updated it to the day that we had a president who took us into Iraq, not a G.I.

BROKAW: Well, my point is that we have not - I mean, the voters are - all of their nerve endings are exposed. And they are looking at these candidates very carefully and they are taking their measure.

Now the other interesting piece of all this is, in both Texas and Ohio, over 90 percent of the people say that they think that she has the most experience and therefore may be the most qualified. But by a three-to-one margin they believe that Barack Obama can bring about the necessary change that this country needs.

So those are some of the contradictions and the complexities that we're dealing with here tonight qualitatively as we await the quantitative judgment of those two states.

OLBERMANN: All right. Tom, and by the way, just to answer your question, the reason Chris doesn't want to go to - have everybody go through Pennsylvania for seven weeks is that he knows how many people in the political field there are rather reminiscent of himself. So he is trying to spare...

MATTHEWS: Ha!

(LAUGHTER)

OLBERMANN: Spare the candidates all of that.

MATTHEWS: Actually, I'm like the Br'er Rabbit, don't throw me in that briar patch. I can't wait for seven weeks of covering that campaign. Anyway, the prompter is not moving so my lips are not moving. But when Keith and I return, Tim Russert will be here. Plus, how the Democratic race is affecting things on the Republican side. MSNBC's DECISION 2008 coverage continues after this.


(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

OLBERMANN: One News note about Ohio, where we have declared it too close to call in large part because the secretary of state in the state has asked a judge to hold the polls open in Sandusky County until 9:00 p.m. Eastern, that is presumably weather-related, Sandusky, that is Fremont, Ohio.

As we wait for all of that, the rest of the polls having closed at 7:30, apparently, let's go back to Norah O'Donnell, some more new numbers from exit polling.

And this is the treasure load of information tonight - Norah.

NORAH O'DONNELL, MSNBC CHIEF WASHINGTON CORRESPONDENT: And good evening to you, Chris and Keith. That's right, as you noted, the polls have just closed in Ohio. And we are characterizing the Democratic race as too close to call. Let's take a look at some of issues that figured prominently for voters in this contest as well as in other big voting state, that is Texas.

We asked voters about the importance of the recent debates. And for Democrats in these two states, it made a difference. Seventy-two percent of those in Ohio say it was important in their decision, 64 percent of the Democrats voting in Texas agree.

Remember, these recent debates had featured sharp attacks with the gloves coming off. It's also where the candidates said they would renegotiate the NAFTA trade agreement, an issue of concern to both Ohio and Texas where the majority of voters say it has cost jobs.

Then we asked about which candidate has a clear plan to deal with the country's problems. And here Hillary Clinton has the edge over Barack Obama. In both states, in Ohio, 67 percent of the Democratic voters chose Clinton, 57 percent Obama. It was nearly the same in Texas, 66 percent for Clinton, and 52 percent for Obama. Really interesting.

And then, about those attacks and those ads, did they create a feeling that the candidates were being unfair? Well, take a look at the numbers for Hillary Clinton. In both Ohio and Texas, Hillary Clinton was seen as the candidate who was unfair by a majority of the voters in both states with 52 percent of the vote. Now also Barack Obama was also seen as unfair but obviously by a much lower percentage of the voters, 33 percent in Ohio there and 36 percent in Texas.

Now, in Ohio, which we said was just too close to call, Clinton in general is winning among women. She's winning the white vote by a large margin. And she's also winning among those who make less than $50,000 a year. For Barack Obama, he is winning over half of the men and the under 30 vote by a wide margin there.

OLBERMANN: Norah O'Donnell with the exit polls, which would seem to suggest that Hillary Clinton got herself a lot in terms of having a good plan, and then took some of it away from herself by attacking unfairly, at least according to the exit polls in both Ohio and Texas. Thank you, Norah.

O'DONNELL: You're welcome.


OLBERMANN: Back to Tim Russert and some of the other statistics that are beginning to break out of Ohio. More of the demographics, rather, than the other groupings.

Tim, what have you got?

RUSSERT: You know, Keith, it is interesting going through that exit poll from Ohio. And what we're seeing is each candidate playing dramatically to their own strength. For example, more than 30 percent of the voters in the Democratic primary today were independents or Republicans. That plays to Obama's strength.

The white ethnic Democrats, clearly Hillary Clinton's strength. And with white women over 60, she is polling very, very strongly. Voters over 65 she's winning close to 70 percent. So what we're seeing is a realignment back prior to Potomac Tuesday of the coalitions.

White women making under $50,000, over the age of 50, aligning themselves with Hillary Clinton. Young voters, African-American voters by margins of nine-to-one. More affluent voters aligning themselves with Barack Obama. That's why the polls have closed and the race is too close to call because neither has been able to draw from one another's coalition thus far in Ohio.

MATTHEWS: Tim, if - I don't know if we have any good history on this, you might have it. If a voter begins to vote against a candidate who is going to win the nomination in the primary process, in other words, Barack Obama, let's assume he has the numbers, Hillary Clinton gets votes against him in states like Ohio, does that argue that that same voter would more likely vote against Barack Obama in the general?

RUSSERT: It depends how divisive the conventions are. If you look at '72, and you look at - '68, '72, and '80. Those conventions fell apart and the Democrats lost all three races. What these candidates have to be fearful is as follows: If Obama is the candidate in November, will white women over the age of 50, making under $50,000, stay with him or the Democrat or because they had voted for Hillary Clinton opt for John McCain?

Will African-Americans be offended because Obama is not the nominee and simply stay home? It's a group that the Democrats desperately need because they vote nine-to-one for the Democrats.

And what about all of these young people in Ohio, Texas, wherever, all voting overwhelmingly for Obama, do they stay home? So there's a real risk, Chris, as to how long this race goes on and how tense it is and how negative it is. And we're seeing that reflected in these exit polls today.

MATTHEWS: OK. Thank you very much, Tim Russert. As we watch the returns come in from Ohio, we're joined by someone who knows that state quite well, that's former Ohio Secretary of State Ken Blackwell, a Republican, and proud to be.

Sir, let me ask you about your party. Are you in a good mood tonight watching the Democrats go at each other?

KEN BLACKWELL (R), FORMER OHIO SECRETARY OF STATE: Oh, I think it's democracy at its best. It's a vigorous contest on the Democratic side of the aisle. And John McCain has locked it down on the Republican side. So we're going to watch democracy at work.


MATTHEWS: Well, suppose the issue becomes who is the most protectionist Democrat and questions are raised about Barack Obama's trust, even his religious background, his religious faith, and yet he does end up winning on the numbers, doesn't that put you in a position of fighting someone who has been badly hurt by a Democrat?

BLACKWELL: Well, I think what it does is, against what appears to be big issues on the minds of voters of America, you know, winning the war, actually getting our economy growing again, producing jobs, making those tax cuts permanent, I think on those big issues, securing the borders, restoring the rule of law, those are the issues that John McCain will have to run against Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton on.

And I think in both cases you have Democrats that have big government visions, and it's going to be fairly easy for McCain to run against them if he solidifies the space and crystallizes his message.

MATTHEWS: You know, you look at all of the polls done by National Journal of Republican insiders, and overwhelmingly I think the last number I saw was 85 percent of insiders want Hillary to be the other party's nominee because they believe that if she's the nominee of the Democratic Party, the Republicans pick up all kinds of seats in the Congress. They win big in the congressional elections as well as perhaps in the general election for president. Is that your view?

BLACKWELL: Well, my view is this, Chris, that we got off track. We started to campaign like Ronald Reagan and then at times govern like Jimmy Carter. And as a consequence, people really question whether or not we were true to our message.

I think John McCain and Republicans in Congress are going to have to basically say, we believe that we can bring to the voting public an agenda that will put us back on an economic growth path, help us win the war, restore the integrity of our borders and the rule of law and redeem our culture.

I mean, this is going to be a very - when you really look at it, you know, it's Tweedledee or Tweedledum when it comes to Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton.

MATTHEWS: OK. I just don't think Jack Abramoff worked for the Carter administration, Ken, did he?

(LAUGHTER)

MATTHEWS: Anyway, thank you, Ken Blackwell.

BLACKWELL: Well, we have some stories we can trade about corruption on the Democratic side.

MATTHEWS: Well, I don't think corruption is an equal opportunity employer. Anyway, thank you. Let's check back in with...


BLACKWELL: We'll talk about this later on.

MATTHEWS:... Joe Scarborough and the panel.

(LAUGHTER)

JOE SCARBOROUGH, HOST, "MORNING JOE": All right. Thank you so much, Chris. You know, boy. It was sort of like that Texas senator for a second there. Let's talk about what Tim Russert said. There appears to be a realignment. As Tim said, a lot of Hillary Clinton supporters have come back together and it's starting to look, if you look at the exit polls, like the pre-Potomac Primary constituency that Hillary had.

EUGENE ROBINSON, THE WASHINGTON POST: So there would be a re-realignment or - you know, back to where we started.

SCARBOROUGH: Back to where...

ROBINSON: Back to the future.

SCARBOROUGH: Basically what it means is that Hillary Clinton has been pounded over the past 12, 13 contests and it appears like her coalition is coming back together.

ROBINSON: Well, what it would portend would be that we would be at this for a while, because those are two roughly equal blocks, as Tim pointed out, as we saw in some of the early primaries. And so if we're going to have, you know, essentially white women with Hillary, African-Americans with Obama, and not a coming together of the party around one candidate, then, you know, onto Wyoming and the next primary.

(CROSSTALK)

PAT BUCHANAN, MSNBC POLITICAL ANALYST: Joe, it's a lot more serious than this. If Hillary is pulling the white women and the working class folks in eastern Ohio, ethnic, Catholic, heavily and they are resisting Obama, those people are available to John McCain, on one condition. We heard - what did we hear, eight-to-one or something, they despise NAFTA. He has got to - McCain has got to get off this NAFTA free trade Wall Street Journal economics.

SCARBOROUGH: It's the Reagan conservatives. And that's not going to happen. But it appears like...


BUCHANAN: These are Reagan Democrats.

SCARBOROUGH: It looks like these Reagan Democrats are switching allegiance. They are voting for Hillary Clinton right now and staying away from Barack Obama.

RACHEL MADDOW, MSNBC POLITICAL ANALYST: But it only matters if it results in her winning one of these states. That is going to be a hard-fought race. If it turns out that white ethnic voters, as you're talking about, end up leaving Barack Obama, heading over towards Hillary Clinton, but they can't put her over the top, if she loses four straight states tonight, it doesn't matter, it doesn't matter.

SCARBOROUGH: Does this mean that...

(CROSSTALK)

BUCHANAN: They are resisting Obama.

SCARBOROUGH: They are resisting Obama. The guy has had...

(CROSSTALK)

MADDOW: But if he still wins, he wins.

SCARBOROUGH: If he wins, right. But at the same time he has outspent Hillary Clinton three-to-one or four-to-one. If she wins the two big states, that's a rejection, right? They are pushing back.

ROBINSON: Well, it's certainly a reason for her to go on. Look, they didn't resist him in Wisconsin and they didn't resist him in Maryland. And there are other places where you have white ethnic voters who did go with Obama. So let's see what happens tonight. Let's see what happens.

SCARBOROUGH: Oh, good lord. You're sounding like Tom Brokaw now. Let's let the voters speak and all of that stuff. Talk about old-fashioned. Let's go back to Chris and Keith now.


OLBERMANN: All right, Joe, close. Chris and I will return in a moment, a little bit more out of Ohio. Senator Obama's campaign has requested a two-hour extension Cuyahoga and Franklin, and the extension in Sandusky, which has been granted, was because they ran out of ballots, about 400 short for the Democrats.

In an hour, polls close in Texas, in Rhode Island. MSNBC's DECISION 2008 coverage returns right after this.

KEITH OLBERMANN, MSNBC ANCHOR: Voter night in America. We've already run out of Super Tuesday terms. That's Vermont, Ohio, Texas and Rhode Island. Only one of them decided yet. Let's look at the numbers so far in Ohio. It's still too close to call. Not only that, but with less than 3,500 votes counted, at least one county is still open, Sandusky County, proud home of President Rutherford B. Hayes, where they had flooding and they were short of votes. They have extended voting until 9:00 there.

So some of this Ohio is coming in and much of the exit poll information is coming in before all of the polls have closed. There have also been requests to extend two other counties from the Obama campaign, claiming there was bad weather and, again, a shortage of votes.

In Vermont, a projected winner for Barack Obama over Senator Clinton in the Democratic primary there. We don't have a margin there yet. The number means everything in this one. If it's about two thirds for Obama, he would gain ten of 15 delegates there.

In Ohio, among the Republicans, John McCain the projected winner, and guaranteed to get nearly 60 delegates out of this. The march towards the delegate count he needs to officially lock down the Republican nomination, which he is the Republican presumptive nominee, continuing to march ahead through Vermont, where he is the projected winner as well.

Let's look at that count versus his remaining challenger, Mike Huckabee. The needed to nominate number 1,191 or 1,192 if you want to avoid the tie, may occur tonight with Texas and Rhode Island yet to report. We're already giving Vermont and Ohio to Senator McCain.

Coming up at 9:00, closings in Texas and Rhode Island. Critical in both senses of the word, Texas and Ohio making all the difference tonight. And the numbers would seem to suggest that maybe the term we used, Chris Matthews, before the start of the hour was Tim Russert's term, realignment or de-alignment. In other words, in Ohio, we seem to be seeing from the exit polls a roll back to some degree of some of the things that Obama was able to accomplish in Maryland and Virginia and D.C.

CHRIS MATTHEWS, MSNBC ANCHOR: Yes, we're going back to the kind of state we voted on - that voted on Super Tuesday, states like New Jersey and New York, broad states with lots of ethnicity, lots of older people. Ohio is very much a leading indicator of what we'll be facing in Pennsylvania, for example, if it goes that far. These are older states, people vote traditional and they vote fear. This economic issue, I think, may be driving harder than either of the candidates' campaigns.

You pick up the newspapers every day, you read about your friends losing their jobs, you hear about it at the supermarket and elsewhere. People are losing their jobs. That is driving people away from taking risks with Obama, the new guy on the block, and drives people away from generosity. People in this country are more open-minded about change and different kinds of people leading them when times are good than when times are bad.

OLBERMANN: Yet, in Ohio the exit poll numbers were about three to one favoring change over experience.

MATTHEWS: They want change without risk.


OLBERMANN: Who doesn't?

MATTHEWS: I think that would be a great stock to buy. I think it would be a great business decision. But risk comes with change. I do think that Senator Clinton looks like she has found a way - we'll find out by midnight perhaps - found a way to run as the more cautious candidate. Let Barack be the change guy, the new kid on the block. Be the older kid on the block, the more cautious kid, the one who's been there. The experience label may begin to work for somebody as times get trickier. It just could be that the cosmos is shifting faster than the success of either of these campaigns.

OLBERMANN: Of course, that victory might be pyrric in the sense of resting and maintaining a Democratic fight, while the Republicans gather steam for September - November. In the interim, we've been getting such wonderful information on the exit polls with Norah O'Donnell, who is here again to wet the appetite for what's going to come up throughout the hour.

NORAH, O'DONNELL, MSNBC CORRESPONDENT: One of the things I wanted to mention about the economy, it is the most important issue in Ohio, but six out of ten say it's the most important. That's a higher number than in any other of the 25 other Democratic contests that we've had thus far. So yes, Chris is right. The economy is a huge concern.

And yes, Hillary Clinton is winning back her base in Ohio. She is winning women. She is winning two thirds of white women. She is winning older voters. And she is also winning six out of ten white men. That is a group that has been going for Barack Obama. That's significant.

OLBERMANN: Fascinating to see the elongated version of those numbers and their parallels in Texas when the polls close at the top of the hour. Thank you, Norah. We'll be back to you later on in this hour.

Right now, NBC News chief White House correspondent David Gregory is here with us. And David, talk about champing at the bit on the part of the McCain camp. They can become official tonight, no longer the presumptive nominee. What are you hearing?

DAVID GREGORY, NBC NEWS CHIEF WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: It's important. They expect - absolutely expect to go over the top tonight, declare victory. I have talked to McCain advisers who say tomorrow they expect the party to come out, declare McCain the presumptive nominee. Then what happens then is very interesting. McCain then officially starts positioning himself for the general election.

He's got two targets now, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. But he takes advantage of all of that in-fighting going on. I think about this week and him saying, in referencing the Hillary Clinton ad about the 3:00 a.m. phone calls, saying no, I'm the one who is most qualified to get that 3:00 a.m. phone call. So he can insert himself into that debate, while they are still fighting among themselves.

Also, look for President Bush to step up his roll once he's the presumptive nominee, and they really, guns blazing, going out to the Democrats then.

OLBERMANN: What is the McCain campaign's attitude toward President Bush, as the nomination becomes presumably officially theirs tonight?

GREGORY: I think they try to use him strategically. There are ups and downs, pluses and minuses, to using President Bush. But at a time when he is trying to rally the base, rally conservatives, the president is still very important to McCain at this stage.


OLBERMANN: What are they - obviously it is a mantra now being said among Republicans and conservatives that the longer the Democratic race goes on, the better for the Republicans. Exactly the reverse of where we were a month ago, when Democrats operatives were saying, vote Romney, keep this thing going on against McCain. Is it simply a question of watching the two Democrats beat themselves up in a seven-week campaign in Pennsylvania, or is it, you know what, we can pick up a lot of these bludgeons that are used and use them ourselves on the Democratic nominee?

GREGORY: I think that's the important point. I think you look for John McCain to quote Hillary Clinton in an attack against Barack Obama and vice versa. If there is no coalescing on the Democratic side, and I think one of the storylines tonight and of this past week, is that both candidates are getting a second look. Now, are Democrats looking at Hillary Clinton again, anew, or do they say, we know Hillary Clinton. We want to take a closer look at Barack Obama and we've got some doubts all of a sudden.

Maybe it's about free trade. Maybe it's about the war in Iraq, both important issues tonight. John McCain tries to seize on all of that while the Democrats are not completely united, and really focus not only his general election campaign building fund raising, but message focus as well. And one of the things I'm hearing from some Democrats tonight is they say, if there is some rethinking going on about Barack Obama, it's because the general election has, in effect, started. McCain's already been attacking Obama. Maybe it gives Democrats some pause, especially on this experience question, national security question.

OLBERMANN: Which Hillary Clinton herself raised perhaps to her own detriment over the weekend. David Gregory, thanks. We'll check with you later on.

With a little more information on Ohio, the judge has granted the extension in Sandusky. They are going to be voting in Sandusky County until at least 9:00. The Obama campaign asked for extensions because of shortages of ballots in two other counties, in Cuyahoga (ph), principally. That's the Cleveland area. That's vital in terms of getting a vote count. So what we're working off of right now is exit polling information.

But obviously the two campaigns have that and know its importance. Let's check in with them and go to Obama headquarters in San Antonio and NBC's Lee Cowan. Good evening again.

LEE COWAN, NBC NEWS CORRESPONDENT: Good evening. Yes, those - especially that area around Cleveland is very, very important for the Obama campaign. They spent a lot of time in that area, so if they can get these hours extended, that certainly goes to their favor. They were already worried last night about the weather. They were talking about it amongst themselves last night, about how bad it was going to be, how it was going to affect turnout, who exactly would that benefit. So the longer those polls stay open, they think the better chance they have.

OLBERMANN: And their expectations in Ohio, am I correct on this, were in the big cities, going down the list there, Cleveland, Cincinnati, then maybe Toledo as the third bet? Is that correct?

SHUSTER: Yes, very much so. Like you said, Cincinnati as well. I think they were hoping to do well. Especially Cleveland, that was one of those places where I think we went four times over the last couple of weeks. They really focused a lot of attention there, a lot of advertising dollars there as well. They took out some of those big full-page ads in some of the major newspapers across Ohio as well.

So they are counting on that a lot.

OLBERMANN: That's Lee Cowan, who is not bringing us the weather, even though we saw the weather map over part of his report. Thank you, Lee. Now to the Clinton campaign. NBC's Andrea Mitchell back in Columbus. Again, everybody gets their own exit polls, their own information. We've been hearing preliminary numbers out of Ohio that become essentially more preliminary because the poll extensions, at least in Sandusky and maybe a couple of other key counties - what they're getting, what the Clinton camp is getting, are they optimistic about it? Does it jibe with what we've been hearing here?

ANDREA MITCHELL, NBC NEWS CORRESPONDENT: They are optimistic. I keep getting thumbs up from some of the people who are looking at their reports from the field. They think that they are putting back together that coalition of older women, of blue collar men and other laborers. The women, obviously, who are not only older, but those who make less than 50,000 dollars a year. Exactly the coalition they had before Maryland, Virginia and the other series of primaries they started losing.


So, if they can do that here in Ohio, they think that they have the possibility as well in Texas. By the way, they think it's not just NAFTA and the anxiety over jobs, but it's what she has projected in the last couple weeks in her advertising, in the debate, in her appearances at these rallies about being a fighter.

OLBERMANN: And yet, we have still that other number, the means by projecting that, as a corollary to it, which is that other exit poll information, which suggested the question, did either of these candidates unfairly attack the other. The Ohio number was Clinton 52 percent, Obama 33 percent.

There is obviously a price to be paid. Is the calculation that the price in getting that score that's on the screen right now is worth it if you, in fact, alarm people, to put it politely. Alarm potential voters toward your camp and away from your rival's?

MITCHELL: It's always risky to go on the attack because at the same time as you're driving up your opponent's negatives, you hope, you're driving up your own. And Hillary Clinton already has a problem in people viewing her as being more polarizing. But in this case, it seems to be working, at least according to what they are inferring from the reports they're getting from around the state.

Now, it's still too early, Obviously too close to call. I have to tell you, I've not seen the mood as good as it is here in a long time.

MATTHEWS: Andrea, I have to tell you, I hate to out-report you, but tonight, sometime tonight, you'll have confetti fall on you. It's all planned. Hillary, Bill and Chelsea will all be there tonight declaring victory of some sort, whether it's for three states, one state or whatever, a victory party has been planned. It includes confetti.

And the big three. It will happen.

MITCHELL: It always includes confetti. There is a report that Bill Clinton is already planning to go to Wyoming on Thursday. That would be in addition to the schedule. As you know, Chris, just 24 hours ago, I was telling you I thought if she didn't pull it off in Ohio and Texas, rather in both Ohio and Texas, I thought that the wiser, older heads in the campaign were going to insist that she take a serious look at backing out, because of the super delegates who would abandon her in droves.

That still could happen if she doesn't win both. But I don't think it's just spin. I think they have found enough of a silver lining so far in what they're seeing. Of course, we don't have the actual vote counts yet, so it's too early.

MATTHEWS: The victory party has been planned. It has been choreographed. Thank you very much, Andrea Mitchell. Let's go to Tim Russert, NBC's Washington bureau chief and moderator of "Meet The Press." Tim, I was thinking back on the Ted Kennedy versus Jimmy Carter fight that went on through the spring of 1980, where every time one guy looked like he was going to win, the voters said, why don't we vote for the other guy tonight. Just to keep it hot.

TIM RUSSERT, "MEET THE PRESS": Just keep it going. It's been so interesting listening to the two campaigns, Chris. You'll have the Obama people saying, just take a breather here, everybody. Hillary Clinton is the most recognizable woman in American politics, the former first lady. She was ahead in Ohio and Texas by 20 points, Rhode Island 30 points. She should be winning these states easily and she's not. Therefore, it's all about the delegates. And unless she makes inroads on the delegates, she has nothing to proclaim as being positive tonight.

The Clinton campaign saying, wait a minute. Barack Obama's won 11 in a row. He should be sweeping these states tonight if he's going to be the consensus choice to be our party's nominee. And the fact that it's this close at this far along indicates that there's buyer's remorse and people want to keep this race going. We're going to have those two spins, I think, all tonight, all morning long, and for the next two weeks.


There's no doubt about it. This race is going to continue, because even if one of the candidates happens to win these states by a few votes, on Clinton's side she's going to say, I'm sorry, the voters have spoken. I won. I go on. And don't bother me with details about delegates.

OLBERMANN: Tim, one question about breaking out these numbers and saying that an alignment has been realized. It sounds like we're talking about shocks and lube jobs here. Does anybody going into a voting booth ever look at what the demographic breakdowns were in the last state's primaries? Is this a reconstituted - whatever way it breaks, are these reconstituted support groups, demographic groups, or is this just happens to be how those groups vote in a state, in this case Ohio?

RUSSERT: It's a combination of both. That's a great question because every state has similar demographics that we can look at and compare. But the circumstances in each state is different. And what I mean by that is in Virginia and Maryland, the white ethnic voter has a different economic (R)MD+IN¯(R)MDNM¯situation than that of the voter in Ohio. Even in Wisconsin, Keith, there were more people who made - in the Democratic party made more than 100,000 dollars than in Ohio.

Ohio is one of the lowest per capita incomes in the country for registered Democratic voters. And so, I think we have to keep looking at this micro chasm of Ohio, a state where 90 percent of the voters said tonight the economy was either fair or poor. And they are petrified about their own economic security and future. So, I think that's the disparity, the difference we're seeing in the voting behavior as compared to Wisconsin or Virginia or Maryland.

OLBERMANN: Tim Russert, stand by. Let's turn to Tom Brokaw. Obviously from what Mr. Matthews reported that the confetti is ready for launch. Now we move back to a Cape Canaveral analogy. The confetti's ready to go in Columbus. There will be something for the Clintons to celebrate, even if that's the only thing, even if it turns out that the delegate count went in favor of Obama.

This then redirects us to Pennsylvania. And what in the context of this condensed, super fast, primary season looks like a million years. Seven weeks in one place.

TOM BROKAW, NBC NEWS ANCHOR: You know, I was - when Tim was talking about 1980, when Jimmy Carter and Ted Kennedy were contesting, Jimmy Carter had said - pardon my language, this is a direct quote from the president. He said if Ted Kennedy runs against me, I'll kick his ass. That's what he said at the beginning of the campaign. At the end, he did it.

But before he would manage to beat him at the convention, he had hoped to stop him in Pennsylvania. And Pat Kadell (ph) told President Carter at 7:30 that night that he was going to win Pennsylvania. At 8:15, the president called Pat in his hotel room and said how are we doing, and Kadell had to clear his throat and say, sir, we have lost Pennsylvania. As you know, the campaign went on from there.

So that gives awe little bit of a historical perspective and what the Democrats have been through in the past. It was a time when the Democrats lost to Ronald Reagan that year, but they lost in part because you'll remember that not very attractive scene on the podium at the Democratic convention, when Ted Kennedy came to give what was a memorable speech, but spent most of his time before giving that speech evading the president of the United States, who was trailing him around the podium at the Democratic national convention, refusing, on the part of Ted Kennedy, to shake his hand or to raise it in any kind of unity.

I think if the party does go on from here, the larger test will be if it gets all the way to the convention, how do they emerge from the convention? How do the two combatants then begin to deal with each other?

Just one other point, if I can, Keith. In Texas tonight, something to keep your eye on, a lot of white suburban Republicans are saying they like Barack Obama. And that's a big concern to the Republican party in that state.

OLBERMANN: Tom Brokaw and Tim Russert, thanks to you both.


MATTHEWS: Let's go back to Andrea Mitchell, who is at the Clinton headquarters with Terry McAuliffe.

MITCHELL: Thanks very much guys. Terry McAuliffe, you've been very upbeat. What are you hearing from your field operatives in Texas and Ohio?

TERRY MCAULIFFE, CLINTON CAMPAIGN CHAIRMAN: It feels good. I think we're going to win both Texas and Ohio. I'm here in Ohio. You can feel the enthusiasm. I think Hillary's message of who would be the best commander in chief, who would be the best steward of the economy, that resonated in both Texas and in Ohio. I think tonight is going to be huge.

You add these big states to the states that Hillary's already won; these are states that are important for the general election. Winning tonight in Texas and Ohio, the momentum coming out of here tomorrow, we then head on, Pennsylvania April 22nd. Going to have another big win there for Hillary.

MITCHELL: Terry, she is so far behind in delegates, even coming out of this - if she were to win these two states, which is still too close to call -

MCAULIFFE: Sure.

MITCHELL: - she'd still be behind in delegates. Doesn't he have an argument that he is ahead in delegates, he won 12 straight so far, until we get the other results tonight. He's got, some would say, a better argument than she does.

MCAULIFFE: I would remind you, we still have 12 states yet to vote. We have a lot of delegates still out there. We have a long way to go. I remind you, Bill Clinton did not win the nomination until June, 1992. John Kerry, four years ago, won it in the middle of March. We still have a lot of votes to be cast. We should let the voters of Pennsylvania and West Virginia and Kentucky and all of these states, they ought to be able to vote. Let's see how it goes.

But I feel very comfortable. This is a big message tonight. Hillary Clinton will have won California, Texas, Ohio, New York, New Jersey, Florida, Michigan. These are huge states, Andrea, for the Democratic party and the general election. It tells you something. Barack Obama's campaign way outspent us in these states. Yet, Hillary's economic message and her message on national security is the message that will have won the day today.

MITCHELL: Barack Obama apparently - yes, go ahead. He can hear you, Chris.

MATTHEWS: Question, that is about how your candidate will be able to win the most delegates when the whole fight is over before you get to Denver. Can you get a new election in Florida after Pennsylvania? For example, if you just follow a - if you win two big ones tonight, if you win Pennsylvania on the 22nd of April, can you get another election in Florida and make it possible to win the elected delegates?

MCAULIFFE: Sure. Yesterday, as you know, I believe the governor of Florida said that he'd be willing to put on another primary there. Let's let all of the voters go again, if they are willing to do it. A million seven people, Chris, as you know, voted. Every name was on the ballot. It was because the Republicans moving it up that the Democrats were penalized. So, there was no campaigning, but a million seven voters went to the polls.


We can't disenfranchise Florida, especially after 2000. We can't do it to them again. Michigan and Florida are two key states for the Democratic party for this coming November. So whatever we have to do to get people in the system, let's do it.

MATTHEWS: Will you accept a deal where you get a primary in Florida after Pennsylvania and you allow a caucus in Michigan? Or do you want two primaries now?

MCAULIFFE: I want primaries. You know why I like primaries? They are there all day, everybody can come in and vote during the day. The problem with some of these caucuses is they are defined to an hour or two. Many people, they take care of their children, they have multiple jobs; they can't go spend two hours in a room. Let's make it easy for people to vote.

You go in, you got all day to do it. You close the curtain and you vote for the person you think will be the best commander in chief. We're for that. We want everybody to be counted.

MATTHEWS: Will you allow the counted elected delegates to decide who wins this nomination? You say you want everybody to vote. You just said it, Terry. If, after all of these primaries and caucuses, and the other candidate or your candidate has the most elected delegates, will you live with that result at that point, after Puerto Rico? Will you live with the election?

MCAULIFFE: Chris, we're going to do what the rules show.

MATTHEWS: But you said you believe that everybody voting. I'm just asking, will you allow the vote to count? That's all I'm asking.

MCAULIFFE: We want all the votes to count. We want all the delegates, pledged, unpledged. These are the rules you have to live by, so everybody ought to be counted. Senator Obama cannot get the nomination without counting on some super delegates. We're going to have to have super delegates in our mix. These are the rules of the Democratic party.

That's what we have. We don't have winner take all, like the Republicans.

MATTHEWS: In terms of your argument two minutes ago - Terry, you just made the case we should allow everyone to vote. Once everyone has voted, shouldn't that be the decision? Why do you have to go to super delegates to reverse the decision of the popular vote by the Democratic party?

MCAULIFFE: Chris, you used to be a Democrat and a member of the Democratic party.

MATTHEWS: That is a cheap shot. But go ahead. Appeal to me. Appeal to my judgment.


MCAULIFFE: No. No. You ask actually used to work for Tip O'Neal.

MATTHEWS: I know. It's not working with me. Sorry. If that's your best case, you're going to lose this baby, but good luck with the fight.

MCAULIFFE: Let me tell you, Chris. The rules are, when we got in this race, we know what they are, what you have to do to win the nomination. And you know what? Let's let everybody finish up. We have 12 more contests to go. We have a lot of delegates to go. We go to Puerto Rico on June 7th, finish the process up. The goal is to get as many people involved in the process as possible.

MATTHEWS: OK, Terry. Let's have a big town meeting in Pennsylvania with the "HARDBALL" college tour. We'll have Senator Clinton before thousands of students. It will be a great night for us all.

MCAULIFFE: Let me tell you this, Chris. I can tell you know, Hillary Clinton would love to be on stage with you in Pennsylvania. I don't think there is anything more than she'd be looking forward to. So let's do that. I'm all for it.

MATTHEWS: We have formed a great alliance for the people. Thank you. Andrea Mitchell, back to you.

OLBERMANN: Thanks to Andrea Mitchell and Terry McAuliffe and Chris. I think you'll wind up debating him.

MATTHEWS: No. No. I want to have a chance to have the students of Pennsylvania in our college tour bring the questions to the candidates, both of them.

OLBERMANN: It will be a debate. Coming up, in about 35 minutes, the polls close in Rhode Island and in Texas. When we return, Chuck Todd will explain the delegate math in Texas, where which percent you get means that some 10 percent is more valuable than another 10 percent.

Plus, new numbers from our exit polling and Norah O'Donnell. MSNBC's Decision 2008 coverage continues after this.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

OLBERMANN: We're awaiting results in Ohio. We'll get some, although 15 precincts in Cuyahoga County, that is Cleveland, will be open until 9:00 Eastern. Right now, the Democratic race there is considered too close to call. There will be no projections certainly until the last polls close.


In Texas, most polls are closed. We have results coming in. We've seen them already and they have gone early and heavily, primarily due to the early voting that's been going on for nearly two weeks in Texas, in favor of Senator Obama. But we can't characterize the race there until the polls in the western most part of the state close at 9:00 eastern.

You might want to get a pencil and pad and write some of this down. NBC News political director Chuck Todd joins us again with a preview of what to expect in the Lone Star State and how to understand it when we do expect it. Chuck?

CHUCK TODD, NBC NEWS POLITICAL DIRECTOR: I want to say, it's not like Cuyahoga is an important county in Ohio. It's not like it's part of Cleveland or anything.

OLBERMANN: It wouldn't be an Ohio election if the polls didn't stay open or close early or wash out or whatever.

TODD: We might get the Texas caucus results before the polls close in Ohio. Let's look at this crazy - the Ohio, the primary, and the caucus and really, the challenge that Hillary Clinton has tonight in this, because of how complicated it is. First, let's look at the primary. OK, 126 delegates up. They are all distributed or allocated by state Senate districts.

There are actually fewer state Senate districts in Texas than there are Congressional districts, 31 state Senate districts, 32 Congressional districts. So assume Hillary Clinton - let's say she wins 51-49, a narrow win. All the polls - she would be very happy. She would win the popular vote.

The likelihood of her actually winning a majority of these 126 delegates - haven't gotten to the caucus yet - very unlikely. Why? Because of how - where African-American delegates are allocated, where the Austin-based part of the state senate districts have more delegates that they allocate it. And these are places Obama is going to do well.

In this scenario, 51-49, he's likely to net more delegates out of this, probably something like 64-62 out of this 126. And he could lose by two points and probably net more delegates just out of this 126 piece of the pie.

Well, that's only two-thirds of the pie. We have this wonderful little caucus part of things which is going on now, and reports of chaos are ensuing, as we know.

We don't know for sure, we won't have these results, possibly as late as this weekend, because you can - if you're a precinct captain, you can mail in your results on Friday. You don't have to mail them in tonight for some reason. You can do it Friday.

Go figure.

But let's assume he gets just 55 percent, which would be a weak-performing caucus for Obama when you look at his history of caucuses. If he just got 55 percent of these delegates, of these 67, that would give him a 36-31 delegate advantage over Senator Clinton, so he would end up netting - he would end up netting - she would get 93 out of here, and he would get 100. And yet, she would win the popular vote.


He would obviously do well in the caucus. And this is the thing - he could net seven delegates out of here and lose the popular vote. And this is being a very conservative estimate, but we obviously can sit here, and we're going to go through these state senate districts as the night wears on and figure out exactly what these allocations are.

But right now, you look at this. If this is as close as everything appears to be, Obama could lose by a couple of points, net delegates. We already showed how it's possible in Ohio.

These allocations really do run against Senator Clinton, which makes this spin game tomorrow a big challenge if she happens to win the popular vote in both Ohio and Texas and yet lose on the delegate side.

OLBERMANN: It depends on what your definition of "win" is.

All right. Chuck Todd, great. Thanks.

TODD: See you.

OLBERMANN: Obviously this brings a whole new meaning to that familiar dance title the Texas Two-Step.

For more on that, let's turn to NBC's Lester Holt, who's at one of the caucus sites in Houston at an elementary school there.

Lester, good evening.

HOLT: Good evening.

We are in a cafeteria at an elementary school. Four years ago there were about 45 people who came to the Democratic caucus. We stopped counting at 350, and they are still lined up at the door.

What's happening now is, going by the rules, they are about to elect a chairman, a secretary. They are also doing the sign-in.


The sign-in is really the key part of the caucus system here. You come in and you sign in for either Obama or Clinton, or you can sign in uncommitted.

And they even have math. They call it the easy math sheet that the officials will go down, and based on the votes, they will allocate the number of delegates.

Now, I've never been to a precinct convention or a caucus, but I'm in good company. Most of the people in this room have not been to one either.

I talked to a lot of folks, "Hey, it's my first time." They were advertising heavily here in Texas that the Texas Two-Step, that it's important that if you came to vote, come back in the evening for the caucus portion.

At this elementary school they had a pretty good - my math, based on the numbers they gave me, they had about a 37 percent turnout here today. They did electronic voting, so their numbers are already being reported to the central state authorities. Those are unofficial numbers, by the way, 37 percent turnout at this precinct.

A heavily Democratic area. We're just a few blocks from Rice University, a rather affluent area, a very mixed population here. And right now an overflow crowd in this room right now.

People, a show of hands right now as they vote for a chairman. But again, the sign-in.

This is not going to be the horse trading we've seen in some of the other caucuses. Once you sign in for Obama or Clinton or uncommitted, that's it. They will do a little other business here in preparation for their state convention, but basically the sign-in, that will be it. And we should have some results here fairly - in fairly short order.

Let's go back to you right now.

OLBERMANN: Thank you, Lester.

Better a two-tier than a three-tier program.

Meanwhile, in the other tier, a little news out of Texas on this. As voting draws to a close at 9:00 Eastern, some Dallas county precincts are reporting long lines extending outside onto the streets in Texas.


So here we go again. Too few votes in Ohio, late lines, extensions granted by judges. Bad weather, everything else making the ability to predict what's going to happen, and one side - or both sides to celebrate. Perhaps both sides might proclaim victory tonight.

Let's get what we do have, the exit polls. More on that, another wave of them coming in. And for that we turn once again to Norah O'Donnell - Norah.

O'DONNELL: And good evening to you, Keith.

And we are witnessing what may be a transformation in Ohio for Hillary Clinton, who appears to have won back her base. That's why it's too close to call in Ohio right now. And it's very interesting.

We have a Democratic Party in Ohio that is divided by race, gender, and age. Here are the numbers.

First, race.

Among white voters, Clinton is winning women by a large margin. Look at that, 66 percent to Obama's 44 percent. She's also winning among white men, with 55 percent to Obama's 44 percent. Now, remember, Obama has won white men in past contests, so this is different what we're seeing in Ohio.

Now, among black voters in Ohio, Obama is winning both men and women. See that? By a large margin. But black voters only make about 19 percent of the Democratic electorate in this state.

Now, as for voters by age, Obama is getting two-thirds of young voters. That's that number right up here, as well as a majority of those age 30-44. But Hillary Clinton is getting the over 45 group and taking an overwhelming number of the seniors.

And what's interesting is we're talking about these two numbers right here. That is one of the largest margins.

You see that 70 percent right there? Rather down there, 70 percent to the 29 percent? That is one of the largest margins we have seen this entire primary season among seniors.

It's also interesting to note that in Ohio, one in five Democratic voters said race was an important factor in making their decision. And in that group, eight in 10 voted for Clinton - Keith.


OLBERMANN: Norah O'Donnell.

And let's just update you. Texas, it's still at the top of the hour when the polls close there. They close also at the top of the hour in Rhode Island. In some places in Ohio they will close at the top of the hour, where it is still too close to call, despite all of those exit poll indicators. Whatever they mean in terms of actual delegate counts is something for much later in the evening. There is virtually everything but Vermont to be decided here as the evening continues.

David Gregory, Tom Brokaw, Tim Russert will all be with us when we return.

MSNBC's "Decision 2008" coverage continues after this.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

OLBERMANN: Polls in Texas and Rhode Island will be closed at 9:00 Eastern, 19 minutes from now. We continue to watch the votes come in from Ohio, where it remains too close to call between Senators Clinton and Obama in the Democratic primary.

This note on the Republican side of things. A Huckabee senior aide telling NBC News and "The National Journal" that Mike Huckabee tonight will congratulate Senator McCain and will be in touch with the McCain campaign tomorrow from Little Rock to coordinate a concession.

"The handwriting is on the wall," the aide said, and indicated that was the plan, whether or not Senator McCain officially reaches 1,191 delegates tonight. The aide said that Huckabee wants to have contact with McCain tomorrow in Little Rock before deciding what next to do.

We've already projected a victorious evening for McCain in Ohio and Vermont, the two places where the polls have largely or completely already closed.

NBC News Chief White House Correspondent David Gregory is with us here.

Will Mr. Huckabee find Senator McCain in Little Rock tomorrow, or does the senator have other plans?

DAVID GREGORY, NBC CHIEF WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: The senator has got other plans. I think we're going to see tomorrow as a day of consolidation for John McCain.


Republican sources telling us tonight that assuming Senator McCain goes over the top, becomes the presumptive nominee - and that is the expectation - that he will go tomorrow to the White House to formally be endorsed by President Bush at the White House and at an event there. A lot of symbolism, and a big bully pulpit for both Senator McCain and a lame duck president who intends to campaign for Senator McCain.

So again, Republican sources saying, if he is over the top, McCain will get President Bush's endorsement tomorrow at the White House before going to the Republican National Committee to have the party officially name him the presumptive nominee.

And keep a couple of important points there. A real contrast to the Democrats, if this is still a muddled race coming out of tonight.

John McCain wants to consolidate, he wants conservatives behind him. President Bush can help.

He can also help a great deal in beginning to help McCain raise the money to get on a general election footing. And that's what he expects to do.

Sources within the White House saying tonight the president finds McCain to be an attractive candidate despite all of the water under the bridge between them, to focus hard on campaigning for him on the areas of national security and taxes. And we're going to see that beginning tomorrow. Not ruling out even some presidential travel with McCain and getting that organized rather quickly - Keith.

OLBERMANN: David, have I been in a coma and didn't know it? Has not all the talk for the last year been that whoever the Republican nominee was going to be, they would try to stay as far away from President Bush, especially the idea of the president campaigning for him, as possible?

GREGORY: Well, I think you do it very judiciously and you do it carefully if you're the Republican nominee.

It is a misnomer that President Bush cannot help you some. Yes, President Bush is very unpopular in the country at large. Yes, certainly in Democratic circles he is extremely unpopular. But in conservative parts of the country, places where Senator McCain wants to consolidate support, President Bush can still be a great deal of help - fundraising, he can still be a great deal of help. And I think Senator McCain has said in the past that he would use him carefully.

OLBERMANN: David Gregory, great thanks for the information.

GREGORY: Sure.

MATTHEWS: Thank you.


Michelle Bernard is with the group Independent Women's Voice.

Michelle, I'm looking through these numbers tonight, and it gets to that interesting question, that sort of cultural class issue, if you will. We hate the word "class" in America, but it's there between the Starbucks crowd and the Dunkin' Donuts crowd. I actually like Dunkin' Donuts, as well as Starbucks.

But you know, until these elections today, most of the voters have been four-year college people. And you saw it, numbers up to 60 percent in states like Connecticut.

And today we're look at - I'm looking at the college graduate percentage here in Ohio and Texas. It's below 40 percent. It's around 40 percent. In fact, if you average it out, lower in Ohio.

It could be, could it not, I'm leaving the question here, that Hillary Clinton does better when working folk are back up to the numbers they represent in the population as a whole, that it's not an elite contest?

MICHELLE BERNARD, INDEPENDENT WOMEN'S VOICE: You know, I think you probably hit the nail right on the head.

I went back tonight and I took a look at the Mark Penn memo - you know, Mark Penn being Senator Clinton's chief strategist. He sent out a memo to interested parties on February 13th. We talked about it earlier, but in that memo he really laid out their strategy.

And remember, he said change begins on March 4th. And he laid out a strategy for winning Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, and that strategy was white women, it was Latinos, it was the working class, it was the economy, and Senator Clinton really depicting herself as the person with the solution for working class America.

And I've got to tell you, at least in Ohio tonight, what the exit polls are telling me is that advertisement that Senator Clinton did over the weekend, for example - you know, it's 3:00 a.m. and the telephone is ringing, was really appealing to the advent of the security mom that we saw with the 2004 election. I think that white women in Ohio - white women in general have been her base all along, but white women in Ohio and the working class, I really think took a look at that ad, and are thinking about security, they're thinking about their children, they're thinking about the economy. And I think that for whatever reason, that ad went over very well in Ohio, and we are going to be able to see - we might be seeing a sort of class warfare in the state of Ohio, at least.

MATTHEWS: And for the group we're talking about - we're watching the ad here with a subdued, muted voice there. We're looking at fear perhaps trumping hope. To be blunt.

BERNARD: Yes. And you know, it's interesting, because we have heard President Clinton in the past say - former President Bill Clinton, I should say - in the past say that you should go for the candidate who is giving you hope and not fear. But really, things changed after 9/11, and in 2004 we saw Democratic women and Republican women putting George Bush back in the White House because of fear.

There were many women who took a look at, for example, the Beslan school massacre in Russia when all of those children were murdered by terrorists. And women are thinking, that could be my child. That could happen here in the United States.


And I think Hillary Clinton's strategists were brilliant with this advertisement, at least in the state of Ohio, because I think it played on people's fears. And when you talk about women and their children, they want to know that you're going to take action first, and ask questions later on.

MATTHEWS: Well, as F. Scott Fitzgerald said, it's in the deepest part of the soul - the darkest part of the soul, it's always 3:00 in the morning. And I think perhaps we'll find out tonight whether the Clinton campaign has tapped into that darkest fear in our souls, 24/7.

Thank you very much, Michelle Bernard.

OLBERMANN: With all of the polls in Texas set to close at 9:00 Eastern, let's turn now to Texas political reporter James Moore, co-author of the book "Bush's Brain," which you have not made the connection, is about Karl Rove.

Jim, good to talk to you tonight.

JAMES MOORE, Texas POLITICAL REPORTER: Hi, Keith. Good to be with you.

OLBERMANN: All right. So what's going on in Texas? And most importantly, will we know what went on in Texas before, say, Friday or Saturday?

MOORE: Yes, I think you will. I think that the caucuses - the Obama people are unbelievably organized down here.

Just by way of an example, you know, after the last primary was settled, the Obama people had their precinct captains all across Texas in a manner of days. And as late as last week, Hillary Clinton was still calling around looking for precinct captains.

I mean, in Travis County alone, Senator Obama has signed up about 9,000 volunteers. George Bush did not have that. And Hillary Clinton today has about 39 people in Travis County working the phones. So, I'm not sure - I mean, I could be wrong, I usually am, but my guess is, Keith, that - not to slip into the Texas vernacular, but this ain't going to be the happiest of rodeos she's ever been to.

OLBERMANN: Do we have a hint as to what the Clinton strategy is if that unhappy rodeo takes place, if she gets thrown from that buck in three or four seconds? With this bit of information that, as we speak, a conference call is starting. It is described by the Hillary Clinton campaign as an emergency press call to discuss caucus intimidation and irregularities in Texas with the Clinton campaign attorney.

In other words, are we being warmed up for, well, yes, the senator did not do very well in Texas, but here are the things that went wrong in the process? She wasn't defeated by Senator Obama there, if that's in fact what it turns out, she was defeated by ghosts?


MOORE: Well, she's going to complain about the process. And let's face it, we have a sort of hybrid, bastardized version of democracy with this whole business of the primacaucus.

But you don't have to stay at the caucus and be involved in the debates. You can walk in, sign your name and leave. And your vote counts for your candidate.

But what we are seeing - just before we went on the air I heard from several people at a number of caucuses around the state these things were jammed. These were really lively discussions. And I think because the Obama people have been so well organized in managing the caucus part of this, he's going to surprise her with the number of delegates he gets out of the caucus.

And remember also that where she is really strong among the Mexican-American voters of Texas, their number of delegates has gone down since the last election because they are historically proportioned based upon turnout last election, and it wasn't good.

OLBERMANN: All right. And what is the premise here? Apparently, the argument that's being made - and we don't have details on this yet - is that there were illegal obtaining of caucus packets in several precincts in Tarrant County, Dallas County, Fort - that's Houston, of course - Dallas - well, Dallas is mentioned twice here - El Paso and Travis.

What is a caucus packet? Is that the thing that's central to the process of that part of Texas?

MOORE: Yes, it's an information document. It's like an envelope that tells you how the caucus is going to work, how you do x, y and z, the processes, how a vote is counted, how you can have your voice heard.

It's all of these things. But I don't know how one illegally obtains these things. The goal is always to have them in circulation and make people understand the process.

Now, she could be talking about something else. I don't know.

OLBERMANN: Far in advance is the terminology that's being used as I read further into the document.

MOORE: Yes.

OLBERMANN: So there is some advantage to be gained by reading this guide to your caucus, your caucus and you, things to worry about at your caucus, how to avoid spreading disease at the caucus? If you get this early somehow this is an illegal advantage?


MOORE: I don't know what the advantage is. But you know, the problem for Senator Clinton in making these kinds of claims is that in Texas, a place where there is this sort of frontier ethic of independence and individualism, when you start whining about things you start alienating more and more people.

And first it was the vast right wing conspiracy, and now it's the primacaucus system. And now it's the illegal, far advance obtaining of caucus packets.

I mean, this is not going to serve her well if she goes beyond Texas tonight. But my suspicion, based upon the long lines that you see over in east Austin, which is predominantly Hispanic and African-American voters, very, very big turnout over there. Lines going blocks long. I don't think that she is going to do as well as she hoped she would in Texas.

OLBERMANN: Not a happy rodeo for Jim Moore. We always listen to Jim Moore in Texas.

Thank you, sir.

MOORE: You're welcome, Keith.

MATTHEWS: Let's go right back to Joe scarborough and the panel - Joe.

SCARBOROUGH: Thank you so much.

We actually have a debate going on here right now because we've been hearing about Hillary Clinton all night - is she running a dirty campaign, is she appealing to Democrats' worst instincts?

Maybe I'm just a cold-hearted Republican, but this seems to be down the center.

BUCHANAN: I mean, there's nothing wrong with saying, who do you - which of these two, the community organizer or Hillary Rodham Clinton, do you want answering the red phone in the White House when the balloon goes up? I mean, that goes to experience, competence, who do you trust? That's what campaigns are all about.

SCARBOROUGH: Rachel, why does that appeal to fear?


MADDOW: That appeals - there is a reason that phone rings insistently throughout that ad. It rings insistently. You're worried about it. You're looking at sleeping children.

It's telling you - it's raising the specter that those children will not be safe, and that's supposed to motivate your vote. That is a fear mongering campaign ad. I'm not...

SCARBOROUGH: Do you think we live in a world where our families and our communities and our country are not at risk?

MADDOW: No. But there's - listen, if you're trying to make voters make their decision because they are afraid, that's a different thing than asking to make voters make their decision based on their best hopes or how we deal.

(CROSSTALK)

BUCHANAN: Who do you trust when the safety and security of the country?

MADDOW: What do you do when you're afraid? That's what this is.

SCARBOROUGH: Are we talking about Ahmadinejad or Osama bin Laden?

ROBINSON: Well, look, the ad is over the top. But I don't think it was out of bounds. You know?

SCARBOROUGH: Why do you think it was over the top?

ROBINSON: You know...

BUCHANAN: If it's over the top, why did he re-run his own just like it?


MADDOW: He didn't. He ran an ad that said - that stopped the phone ringing.

ROBINSON: He responded.

(CROSSTALK)

BUCHANAN: Go for me answering the phone call.

ROBINSON: I don't think it was out of bounds, but yes, it was an appeal to fear. Of course it was an appeal to fear. And it wasn't a mushroom cloud.

(CROSSTALK)

SCARBOROUGH: I don't understand. It's an appeal to fear? It's an appeal - does anybody on this panel not believe that we Americans are at risk?

Or is it truly the end of history? Did we win the Cold War and we can now continue spending the peace dividend well into the future?

MADDOW: Joe, here's what Democrats ought to be doing about the pressure to America right now. They ought to say, listen, Republicans have long campaigned on making Americans afraid, but they have not made us any safer.

BUCHANAN: All right. That's fine.

MADDOW: The Republicans trying to run on national security is like Keystone Cops trying to be tough on crime.

BUCHANAN: All right. Let me talk, Joe. Let me tell you...


SCARBOROUGH: But what is wrong in saying...

BUCHANAN: Nothing.

SCARBOROUGH:... that a guy that started running for president one year after he got to Washington may not be the one you want to answer that phone?

BUCHANAN: Exactly. Now, let me talk to that.

Both of you - both of you, let me talk to this. Both of you do not trust the American people. You really don't.

What you're saying is, oh, my goodness, you're going to frighten those poor people into going and doing something they are too immature to understand, that we're talking about a phone call at 3:00 a.m.

ROBINSON: Imagine Margaret Thatcher running that ad about the IRA, OK? Would she do that? No.

MADDOW: No.

SCARBOROUGH: All right.

BUCHANAN: Well, listen, she should do it because - it's a good ad. She is one that can deal with the IRA. She's one that...

MADDOW: Scare the people. It's good for America.

BUCHANAN: You've got some wimpy laborite against her? Of course you run that ad.


(CROSSTALK)

MADDOW: (INAUDIBLE) will always do what's right by the nation.

Unbelievable, Pat. Unbelievable.

SCARBOROUGH: The teacher is ringing the bell. We go back to him now.

There we go. Once again, Keith has a little bell, and he enjoys playing with it. He will be riding his bicycle around during the break.

Back to Chris and Keith.

OLBERMANN: No, that's not what that means. Joe, that means fries are up.

(LAUGHTER)

OLBERMANN: Chris and I will return in a moment.

At the top of the hour, polls will be closed in Texas and Rhode Island. Results may be coming momentarily, certainly on the Republican side. We may have some characterizations for you.

MSNBC's "Decision 2008" coverage returns right after this.

KEITH OLBERMANN, MSNBC ANCHOR: At 9:00 Eastern time, polls have closed in Texas and in Rhode Island and in most of Ohio finally. And first we will look at the Republicans. The Texas Republicans will go to John McCain. Our NBC News projected winner there. Not unexpected, but he will gain, this is the important part, at least 89 delegates in Texas.


Meantime in Rhode Island, Senator McCain will gain at least nine delegates. That means NBC News can project that John McCain has won 1,205 total delegates already and now is the presumptive Republican nominee for president based upon our delegate county and also the "Associated Press" allocation of Mitt Romney's delegates.

So there it is, a projection on the grand scale tonight with getting his 89 delegates at minimum in Texas and nine more at least in Rhode Island, John McCain has officially wrapped up the Republican nomination.

You may have heard David Gregory reporting earlier that he is to go to the White House to get the endorsement tomorrow of President Bush and appear in at least a series perhaps of fundraising events during the courts of the upcoming campaign in which John McCain is going to be officially the Republican nominee.

On the Democratic side, in Texas, listen to these words carefully. Too close to call, even though we have nearly 950, more than 950,000 votes counted and Senator Obama well ahead in those votes over Senator Clinton. A lot of early voting, weeks worth in Texas. This is too close to call.

Rhode Island where everything has just closed, too close to call in Rhode Island. And obviously no hard numbers yet, the polls closed 1:50 ago.

In Vermont, still too close - or Ohio rather, still too close to call. That one delayed by certain key precincts in Cuyahoga County, Cleveland, 15 of them in number, being delayed by bad weather and low ballot numbers, and several others in Sandusky County. The vote being extended to 9:00.

Too close to call in three of the states. Vermont went already to Senator Obama. We don't have a number yet, hard number on that in terms of how that's going to turn out. There is vote counts coming in. The threshold number that's important to Senator Obama, just a little under two-thirds, 64 percent would get a 10/5 split with Senator Clinton on delegates.

Good evening again from MSNBC and NBC News in New York alongside Chris Matthews, I'm Keith Olbermann. All right we may have, what do you think, we're going to have this before the end of the night. Senator Clinton and Senator Obama each declaring a victory for themselves sometime tonight?

CHRIS MATTHEWS, MSNBC ANCHOR: Well, I think it's very murky. And I think the

Republican Party has proven its ability to be organized in selecting a

candidate for president early on. I thought they were going to have you know,

what was I thinking of, Damascus on the road to St. Paul instead of St. Paul on


the road to Damascus.

But they ended up solving their problem. They've got a nominee. It's settled. The president's going to be behind him. It's the least expected nominee in the sense if you look back over the last couple of years, John McCain got beaten back in 2000 by the current president. He was drummed out of the establishment. He's come back, beaten the establishment, whatever there is left of it in a time when the president's very unpopular. He looms as his most likely successor if you just count all three candidates here because he's got the nomination and neither one of the other two have theirs yet.

And so it's a surprising year. And John McCain now will pick a running mate, probably Mark Sanford, somebody who's probably not too controversial, someone who's a fiscal conservative. He does not want to focus too much on this 100 years of war. I would think he will try to pull back from that and say let's win this baby and come home from Iraq.

He's certainly not going to move over and become more pro life, pushing it, I don't think, for a constitutional amendment to outlaw abortion. If he does that he could probably say good-bye to California, Connecticut, New Jersey, Maine and any state he might have a shot at. And I think he has a shot at all of those states.

So this general election is very much close right now. Either Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton will have a tough time beating John McCain as it stands now and that is a surprise if you look at the way this year came. If you look at the box this year came in marked "change." It is ironic that the man who represents the least change is in the solidest position to be the next president right now.

OLBERMANN: We'll see what the Democrats have to offer beside what is they have now for us in Texas and Rhode Island and Ohio, which is exit polls. Norah O'Donnell will have a full set of those later on in the hour, but is here right now a preview. Norah?

NORAH O'DONNELL, MSNBC CORRESPONDENT: In Texas, it's too close to call because

Hillary Clinton is winning among women. There is a split among the white male

vote. Of course Barack Obama had been doing very well in past contests in

white male votes. She is winning 2-1 in Latinos. And Latinos make up a larger

share of the electorate today than in 2004. Blacks make up a smaller share

than in 2004. Blacks of course go overwhelmingly for Barack Obama.


OLBERMANN: Norah O'Donnell with a preview of the exit polls. We'll get back to you during the hour Norah, thank you.

Let's turn to NBC's Tom Brokaw. Where do you want to start here? We've got a Republican nominee and we've got too close to call everywhere else.

TOM BROKAW, NBC NEWS CORRESPONDENT: Well let's talk about John McCain for a

moment and some of the concerns that Republicans already have for the fall.

It is interesting that he's going to go directly to the White House because he needs to get the party behind him. The president of the United States is still the head of the Republican Party however strongly in many people even in his own party feel about his failures, especially in the last four years.

And as any number of people indicated earlier, he still is a powerful fundraising instrument for him and he can use him selectively in places like Texas which was talking about a lot tonight. And in the south and in other states where President Bush does not have the disapproval ratings he does have in the northeast and in many parts of the industrial Midwest.

One of the concerns for the McCain campaign, I've been talking to a couple of their strategists, and they have been thunder struck by the strength of the Obama organization. They say come the fall, we think we can take him on, on the issues. And we used to believe that if we couldn't beat him there we could out-organize him. But in fact, what we're seeing from Barack Obama through all of these caucuses and the primary so far, is that this is a campaign with a very strong organizational component to it.

I really strongly believe that in the last election cycle George Bush won in part because of the strength of the Republican organization that was headed by Karl Rove knowing where the votes were and getting the max out of all of them.

This time it does look like if Obama becomes the candidate of the Democratic Party, the Republicans would be up against a much stronger candidate. I heard just a few moments ago talking about those complicated caucuses in Texas and Barack Obama so well organized down there. Just a week ago at this time, I was in Texas and heard President Bush at a rally in Austin, holding up a clipboard and identifying other people in the crowd saying those with the clip board can help you get to a caucus next Tuesday night. This is last Thursday night.

So that's how far behind the curve they were at that time. When it comes to the delegate count, you know, that could prove critical before the night is over. Finally, somebody close to the Obama campaign told me in the last 24 hours, that they have 50 super delegates that they identified that have not emerged for Senator Obama. They are prepared to. It's a question of how they roll them out.

OLBERMANN: Well, we want to get into that with you again in a moment, Tom. But we need to get to Kelly O'Donnell at McCain headquarters tonight in Dallas where obviously celebrations which have been long bottled up, at least from an official sense of view, certainly can come out now. Kelly, good evening.

KELLY O'DONNELL, MSNBC CORRESPONDENT: Good evening. This has been a night


that seemed hard to imagine only months ago when the John McCain campaign was

limping, broke and pretty much figured to be out of the race.

Well tonight he will surpass the 1,191 that is needed to secure the nomination. And you may be able to see a sign behind me that is draped in blue. Beneath that sign it has that that magic number of 1,191, and it will be unveiled when the senator comes to address supporters.

One of his closest friends, a former senator, told me boy, if John McCain knew that we put that on a sign before he actually clinched it, he would have been very upset because he is so superstitious. But it all seems to be coming together. The room here is packed. There are about 2,000 balloons overhead that they will release.

And of course what follows all of this are some really key developments. Of course the president of the United States will embrace John McCain as the next standard bearer of the party. He will now be free, the president that is, to campaign for him, something he said he very much wants to do. And at many of the events when we are with John McCain, he will make reference usually on the topic of doesn't the president of the United States deserve some credit?

That there has been no attack on the U.S. since '01 and there is typically a very strong response of support. So even though President Bush has had his problems with popularity and a very difficult war, there are some in Republican circles who will be eager to see him campaigning for John McCain.

The other thing he gets is of course the full support of the Republican National Committee, with all of their resources and personnel to begin expanding this into a national campaign. Keith?

OLBERMANN: Kelly O'Donnell at the Fairmount Hotel in Dallas, where the first part of this equation is about to take place.

At some distance, in fact, at the headquarters of the Huckabee campaign also in Dallas, at the pavilion there where in a few moments Governor Huckabee will giving a concession speech. And we'll see to what degree he endorses Senator McCain at that point. I don't know who that is on that big screen there, never mind about him.

Tim Russert is NBC's Washington bureau chief and the moderator of "Meet the Press." Tim, good evening again.

TIM RUSSERT, NBC WASHINGTON BUREAU CHIEF: Hey, Keith.

OLBERMANN: All right, so how do they use George Bush just enough, not too much?


RUSSERT: Very selectively. He'll raise a ton of money for the McCain ticket and for the Republican National Committee. They will use him in targeted states, particularly in military towns, and that will be it. They have to be very, very careful and judicious with him.

Keith, I think the big news out of tonight from a large perspective is that the Republicans have their nominee and the Democrats at this hour, we still don't have much clarity.

So, if the Democratic race does go forward, let's assume that Clinton wins which she thinks she has to and decides she can continue in the race. Obama very much wanted this period to be able to identify himself, to define himself, in a very large way as this agent of change, as this independent candidate and rather than being spending $25 million taking on Hillary Clinton.

If the Democrats go on till April 22nd, seven more weeks at least, John McCain will spend the next seven weeks, George Bush will spend the next seven weeks, every major Republican will spend the next seven weeks, defining Barack Obama. They already defined Hillary Clinton. Everyone knows her, but they will use this period to try to paint Barack Obama as a wild-eyed liberal who cannot be trusted on national security. And that's exactly what the Obama campaign did not want to happen in this interim.

OLBERMANN: To some degree, whether it was unintentional, inadvertent or whatever, to some degree has the Clinton campaign done some of that work for the McCain campaign in some of its advertisements in the last two, three weeks?

RUSSERT: Certainly the red phone, the ringing phone is an indication that Senator Clinton does not believe that Senator Obama would be someone who should be picking up that phone. But I think the - also, the clip that you ran tonight in which she says, "I have a lifetime experience, I'm bringing to the Oval Office. John McCain has a lifetime of experience he's bringing to the Oval Office. Barack Obama, he's bringing a speech."

That is devastating, I believe, and is a clip that will be used over and over again by the Republicans if, in fact, Obama emerges as the nominee. Because what it does is cuts to the very core, the foundation of Obama's ability to function as commander in chief.

MATTHEWS: This is an extraordinary development to have Senator Clinton point to the strengths of the Republican presumed nominee, at this point in the fight, isn't it? To say he is known and well known like I am and the other guy I'm against, Barack Obama, is the weakling here.

RUSSERT: I was very surprised by it, Chris. I think she was trying to say I can handle him mano-womano, in terms of debating national security issues.

But I think inadvertently or deliberately, what she did was position Obama in a very difficult position, come a national campaign, with her own words.

Tomorrow morning we should know a lot more about Ohio and Texas and the state of the Obama/Clinton campaigns. But as of now, if in fact this lack of clarity continues, and they decide to go forward, it is going to be a brutal seven weeks for the Democrats as they watch their candidates go after each other and look what happened this last week. It's not going to get any kinder or gentler.

MATTHEWS: When does it become clear, if it does occur, that the Clintons are interested in the Clintons and not in the Democratic Party? In other words, if they can be the referees in their own match, they will continue to fight to the end. Is there any real referee left in the Democratic Party that can come in and say the fight's over, you've lost.


RUSSERT: That's the interesting thing over the last few weeks. And the Obama people saying repeatedly, if we had lost 11 in a row, we would have been driven out of this race by the media. And you guys have given Hillary Clinton a pass on this despite what "Saturday Night Live" might say.

But the fact is, we are now in a situation where if tonight the number of elected delegates does not change all that much, that Hillary Clinton is still behind some 150, and if Tom Brokaw's reporting bears out over the next few days and the super delegates become a wash, then mathematically Hillary Clinton is going to have to demonstrate how she's going to close that gap.

I believe what the Clinton campaign will say is we don't know exactly how it's going to work out. What we know is that we win the big states and who knows what could happen. You saw what happened with the NAFTA situation. You saw what happened with the Tony Rezko trial. So let's keep this discussion going and maybe outside events will intervene.

OLBERMANN: Here's the part of that quote once again though. If you set up construction in which it's a seniority scoreboard, this quote doesn't just come back to haunt Senator Obama in some sort of McCain/Obama race. Does not quote not come back and serve as words out of Hillary Clinton's own words as to why if you're judging this on seniority and experience, you would vote for John McCain instead of Hillary Clinton?

RUSSERT: Well and many people think that the telephone ad does the same thing, that it really does play to his strengths. Obama saying if you want a clear definition of differences, delineation of differences, someone who is for the war and wants to have a strong U.S. commitment for decades to come, and someone who was against the war and wants to take troops home, you'll have it with me.

You won't have it if it's Clinton versus McCain. That's not going to go away. That's why it is so important in the Obama camp's mind that they resolve this Democratic primary quickly so they can start defining themselves against John McCain. Whether they have that wish granted tonight, we don't know. These races are so tight, so nip and tight. You look at those exit polls, you cannot make an interpretation as to who's going to win.

MATTHEWS: Tom Brokaw is still with us. Tom, there was a famous Al Smith dinner back in 1960 when Jack Kennedy, who was speaking against Nixon, they were adversaries that night on the podium, and he reminded everybody that the real rivalry was between Nelson Rockefeller and Richard Nixon and not between him and Richard Nixon.

That's a somewhat light-hearted way of looking at this. But Tim brings up the real possibility that Hillary Clinton's remarks can be used as a sledgehammer against Barack, should he end up being the nominee.

BROKAW: Well, I think what occurs in February and March, does it have legs all the way in September and October? I think that a lot of it depends on how the Democrats resolve their very acute differences that they have on the campaign trail right now.

Obviously these two candidates have distinctive ideas about who is better qualified to be the president. On the details, however, of policy they are a lot closer than the fireworks would indicate at this time.

I think a whole lot of it depends, Chris, on how they conduct themselves, not just in the next seven weeks through Pennsylvania if it goes that far, but what happens after that and whether they can, in effect, have a political embrace saying look, we're all in this together. The larger object here is to win in November and recapture the White House. And if Barack Obama is the nominee, does Hillary Clinton raise his hand at the convention and say, we've had our differences, but I'm with him and I'm for him as our next president of the United States, you can put that scenario.

I think a lot of it depends not on our conjecture here tonight, but how they conduct themselves in the next seven weeks and beyond, and stitch together, again, the party.


You know, the life span of a lot of these charges can be pretty short indeed. So, we've got a long way to go before we hit September 1st and the campaign. I talked to Jim Baker about what it was like when he was running George Bush 41's campaign. Michael Dukakis coming out of Atlanta. They were down 18 points and on a camping trip in August and they went on to win that election.

OLBERMANN: All right Tom, I guess we're going to have to wait until later to get more information on the 50 super delegates which may have been responded to by the Clinton campaign and another report that's out there tonight. But as you see, Mike Huckabee has taken the stage at Dallas at which point he is expected to end his pursuit of the Republican nomination, which is now mathematically John McCain's. Here is Governor Huckabee.

GOV. MIKE HUCKABEE (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: And his career for the Kansas

City Royals he was asked when he was nearing the end of his career, how he

wanted his last play in the major leagues to go. Everyone assumed he would say

that he wanted to hit a grand slam in the bottom of the ninth to win a game,

perhaps even a World Series. He surprised all of the sports writers because

what he said was, "I want my last play at bat to be that I hit an easy just one

bounce to the second baseman, and they throw me out at first. But I was

running as hard as I could toward the bag when they got me." And he

said, "Because I wanted to be said of George Brett that no matter what, he

played his best game, he gave it his best, all the way to the very end." And


he certainly did just that.

Ladies and gentlemen, I called Senator McCain a few moments ago. It looks pretty apparent tonight that he will in fact achieve 1,191 delegates to become the Republican nominee for our party. I extended to him not only my congratulations but my commitment to him and to the party to do everything possible to unite our party, but more importantly to unite our country, so that we could be the best nation we can be.

Not for ourselves, but for the future generations to whom we owe everything just as we owe previous generations all that they have done for us. Senator McCain has run an honorable campaign because he's an honorable man. One of the things I'm proudest of is that the two campaigns that I believe have been run in the most civil manner of the two in the Republican Party that lasted on their feet to the final.

And I'm grateful for the manner in which he has conducted his campaign, and quite frankly, with your great help, I'm very proud of the way that you have insisted that we conduct our campaign. And it's been one that we will always be able to say was done with honor.

It's now important that we turn our attention not to what could have been or what we wanted to have been, but what now must be and that is a united party, but a party that indeed comes together on those principles that have brought many of us, not just to this race, but to politics in general. I have so many people to thank, starting with this lady here to my right, who I still believe.

OLBERMANN: We once again are interrupting Senator Huckabee, Governor Huckabee rather to give you an update from the Democratic the call in Rhode Island. NBC News projects Hillary Clinton to win the Democratic primary in Rhode Island, those are the hard numbers in front of you at the moment, 53-46. The projection obviously cannot be characterized at this point. It's a question of to what degree Obama has cut into a huge expected Hillary Clinton lead there. There is the projection. Let's rejoin the concession speech of Governor Mike Huckabee.

HUCKABEE: My family didn't have to be persuaded or begged to give their permission and blessing for me to get involved in this campaign. In fact, they were ready for me to do it before I was. Truth is, I was the hold-out, they weren't. And what a wonderful, magnificent gift they have given me with their loyalty and their dedication, involving themselves with their sleeves rolled up every single day of this effort, giving 110 percent of themselves. Ad for that, I will always be grateful.

I also want to say I've had the best staff that anybody's had running for president. And by the way, I'm pretty sure it's probably the smallest staff that anybody's ever had running for president. Imagine trying to do this with about 30 people. I don't think it's ever been attempted. No one's gotten this far with such limited resources. But the fact is, what we've been able to do was to ask of every one of our staff that they work as if they were two or three people. And they worked as if they were four. And I want to say thanks to them, every last one of them.

I'm also mindful that the real story of this campaign is going to be in the faces of those of you who are here and the literally millions of faces across this country of people who never made the headlines, never led the 6:00 news but who have been the backbone, the heart and soul of our campaign. The apostle Paul wrote that I fought the good fight, I've finished the race and I've kept the faith. I believe tonight that one of the things that we will be able to say is not only that we fought the good fight and finished the race, we'd like to have finished it first, but we stayed in until the race was over.

But I think more importantly we kept the faith. And that for me has been the most important goal of all. I'd rather lose an election than lose the principles that got me into politics in the first place. We started this effort with very little recognition and virtually no resources. We ended with slightly more recognition and very few resources. What a journey, what a journey, a journey of a lifetime. It is not lost on me where I started. The prophet Isaiah said and I quoted it often, look to the rock from which you were cut, the quarry from which you were dug. I know of the earth from which I have come humble circumstances of the son of a firefighter and who worked a second job, barely paying the rent on the rent house in Hope, Arkansas where we lived.

A mother who was oldest of seven kids, grew up in a house, dirt floors, outdoor toilets, no electricity when she was little. Parents who like so many across this country wanted for their kids to have a better life. I don't think they could have ever imagined that that better life would have included running for president and getting this close to getting there.

Let me say while many of the establishment never really believed I belonged, there were a lot of people in this country who did. And most importantly, these are the people across this nation who gave me a voice over these past 14 months. It was their sacrifices, the sacrifices of a truck driver in Michigan, of a housewife who sold her wedding ring on eBay and gave the contribution to the campaign. A janitor in Alabama who has a wife in a wheelchair who gave $20 not out of his abundance but out of his poverty so that our campaign could stay on the track.


Those are the folks who have given me a voice, and I only pray to God that I've been able to give them a voice, a voice for the unborn children of this country, a voice for life, a voice for the hard working people who lift heavy things every day, for the rest of us, and who carry food to our tables, who pick up the bags, who make great sacrifices and often work two jobs, for every soldier and sailor and airman who puts on a uniform and keeps us free. For every small business owner who hopes that one day he'll be able to succeed, not having to overcome his toughest competition his own government, and then maybe one day his government would facilitate his business, not complicate it.

For all of the conservatives of this country and party who want less government and want what government they have to be a little more efficient, a little more effective. A little less filled with corruption and a whole lot filled with the kind of confidence that we pay for.

I also believe that there are people out there for whom I hope I've given a voice, and that's the people that believe that we need to really overhaul our tax system and implement the fair tax and get rid of the IRS. And I believe that we've given voice to folks who are single moms and those guys who are out there working two shifts trying to make sure they can just keep the rent paid and put food on the table for their families.

All across this country we've stood at rallies and I have looked into the faces of amazing people who love their country, who cherish their families, who work very hard at their jobs, who worship God and who give sacrificially to others even when it would be very easy for them to keep their time and money totally to themselves.

But they know that's not what made America a great country. It's giving that did. We'll go home tonight and hopefully bring our team together for the transition. We'll be working on doing everything we can to help Senator McCain and to help our party, to help those who run for the Senate and the Congress because there are many battles this year that we need not just to fight, we need to win them for our country's sake and our future's sake.

It's time - it's time for us to hit the reset button. Sometimes when the computer stalls, that's what you do. You hit the reset button. But in doing so, we also recognize the extraordinary privilege that we've had and the amazing people who have been there for the journey. We aren't going away completely. We want to be a part of helping to keep the issues alive that have kept us in this race. And by the way, I know there were many who thought we wouldn't make to the March '07, much less March '08. And we've done so because so many of you worked beyond your capacity and gave in ways I can't even begin to imagine. Neither Janet nor I have the words to say thanks. We can only thank you with, hopefully, our future actions that we will work hard for our country. We will work hard for our party and the nominee, because we love this country and that's why we got in.

And until our country is all that we hope and pray it to be, we won't be able to walk away completely. I've said many times here in Texas that I was inspired by the incredible story of that small group of less than 200 volunteers at the Alamo in San Antonio who took refuge in that church mission, and they saw the incredible armies of Santa Ana start massing against them.

On February 23, 1836, 172 years ago this past week, those armies began a 24-hour onslaught and bombardment. On the 24th day of February, Col. William Barrett Travis wrote the letter from the Alamo that should reign and live in all of our hearts and memories, not just for Texas but for all the world, all who love liberty.

As he said on that incredible occasion, he said the enemy has demanded a surrender at discretion; otherwise the garrisons are to be put to the sword if the fort is taken. He said, "I'll answered the demand with a cannon shot and our flag still waves proudly from walls. I shall never surrender or retreat. I call upon you in the name of liberty, patriotism and everything dear to the American character, to come to our aid with all dispatch. The enemy is receiving enforcements daily and will no doubt increase the 3,000 or 4,000 in four or five days. If this call is neglected, I am determined to sustain myself as long as possible and die like a soldier who never forgets what is due to his own honor and that of his country."

Victory or death. These were people who understood that their battle was not about them. It was about the principles of liberty that they deemed even more important than their own lives. Tonight, I hope that our battle was never about us. It was about our country and its liberty and now we join with Sen. McCain and the rest in our party to continue that battle, to continue that fight, not for who gets elected, but for what we do in maintaining liberty and freedom when we get elected and when our country's flag still waves proudly on the wall.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: You're a great American, Mike.

HUCKABEE: And you're a great American as well. Thank you, folks. God bless you. We love you. And thank you very, very much for going on the journey with us. Thank you.


OLBERMANN: Remember the Alamo. The victory or death allusion towards the end there, seeming to ring a little oddly but Gov. Mike Huckabee making a sincere farewell and paving the way for the official first speech by the now nominee presumptive of the Republican Party, John McCain.

Who would have expected that three months ago, four months ago? He is to speak shortly. Mr. Huckabee was at the pavilion at Dallas across town, at the Fairmont Hotel. Sen. McCain will be speaking shortly having achieved tonight, the necessary number of delegates to lock that up. He is over 1200 right now.

MATTHEWS: Well, as we await John McCain, let's bring in NBC News chief White House correspondent, David Gregory with more. You know, I have to ask you, David, have they assigned liaison between these camps, the Bush camp and the McCain camp?

GREGORY: Yes. There are contacts between senior McCain advisers and the chief of staff at the White House, Josh Bolten and Ed Gillespie, counsel to the president, an old political hand, as you know works also in concert with the McCain campaign. We know for a fact now that John McCain will be at the White House tomorrow for lunch with the president and then there will be an endorsement in the Rose Garden.

So all the trappings, all the choreography of the White House tomorrow for John McCain. He is now declared the future of the Republican Party by this president. A mixed blessing. I talked to sources close to the president who say it's good for John McCain to do this now to get it out of the way. Use Bush where he can, use him judiciously but do that now as a contrast to what's happening on the Democratic side.

MATTHEWS: How does he run as a reformer and a Bushie?

GREGORY: Well, he tries to take the best of both. I mean I think he's - I talked to Democrats actually close to Barack Obama tonight who said look, "We're getting ready to start referring to him as John W. McCain, that there is no distance there. And that the big hug - you remember the big hug in 2004 between Bush and McCain, that sort of played over, literally and figuratively, on the campaign trail. So I think McCain does have to be careful.

But there's a practical aspect to this. John McCain needs an organization now. It was a couple months ago that he was left for dead on the campaign trail. Now, he's the nominee of the party. He needs money. Bush helps him with that. He needs the imprimatur of the current president to be the future of the party. He's going to have that.

He needs unity in the party among social conservatives and as Tim Russert pointed out, in military towns across the country and states with big military installations. He gets all of that with the president that only burnishes his national security credentials. And then needs to, in effect, say to the president, "OK, Mr. President, this is a list of things I need you to do on your own. I need to go do my own thing."

MATTHEWS: Well, the problem is for John McCain is that parties don't get re-elected to the White House during recessions.

GREGORY: Right.

MATTHEWS: It doesn't happen. It hasn't happened. How does he get past that?


GREGORY: I think it's difficult. I don't think there is any question that this is a difficult embrace for John McCain. But it's one that he still has to have and he's got to do it again, try to do it now and then move beyond it and find an appropriate place for this president. And then move beyond him in terms of the economy, move beyond in terms of the future for Iraq and on other issues.

I mean I was just thinking about the picture back in Pittsburgh in 2000, watching John McCain endorse George W. Bush and looking at their faces. I mean these are two different political figures back in 2000. They remain different political figures but the Democrats see one figure. And that's because John McCain has moved very close to Bush on the war and it's what helped him in this primary.

So look, there is no getting around the difficulties that are here and that's why Republicans I'm talking to tonight stress, do it now, create a contrast with the Democrats and then work very hard to create the distance.

And one other point I want to mention - Tom Brokaw mentioned this earlier - one of the things that Bush did so effectively in 2004 is that he effectively created new Republicans. And John McCain hopes to do that in a different way, but if he's up against Barack Obama, he has been very effective at bringing new people into the process as well. It's a completely different political landscape now this year.

OLBERMANN: David, I know this is trivia and very focused but you mentioned the prospect of the Democrats trying to paint the senator as John W. McCain. Given the flap at which McCain got himself into as well about Barack Obama's middle name, is it not probably out of bounds to start throwing in people's middle initials? Have we gotten that politically correct or political necessity to avoid something like that?

GREGORY: Well, I just think it's the overall point and Barack Obama has made it. You know you've seen basically a general election preview, if it goes that way, where Barack Obama has inflicted some wounds potentially against John McCain saying if you want more of George Bush, if you want a third George Bush term, then John McCain is your guy. So yes, I think that's where we're going to be.

I think, however, the motivating effect of calling him John W. McCain or raising that specter is different than bringing up Barack Hussein Obama which is much more loaded. This "W" is politically loaded for sure, but it's a substantive point to make and it's a point that Chris makes which is can an unpopular president be held up as the prospect of a third term.

OLBERMANN: Well, I admit there may be a difference but that difference might be erased by campaigners. We'll see how that turns out.

MATTHEWS: There is something in the strange habit of American journalism that we often reserve the use of the middle name for murderers and especially assassins.

Anyway, we'll be waiting now - we're waiting right now for John McCain's victory speech. But let's check in with "Newsweek's" Howard Fineman who's an MSNBC political analyst, and he's in our campaign listening post right now. And he's got hot stuff on the Clinton campaign.

HOWARD FINEMAN, "NEWSWEEK": Well, what's hot about the Clinton campaign from

the phone calls and E-mails that I've been trafficking in here in the listening


post is the lack of champagne corks and the sense of I would almost say grim

determination that they have. They realize what a tough row to hoe this is,

even if they do pull out some things.

One of the top people in the campaign told me, somewhat to my surprise, that Ohio's not enough. Leave Rhode Island out of the equation. Ohio's not enough. That if it's just Ohio that they can claim, if they do claim Ohio, that it's going to be awfully hard. That Hillary may want to go forward but some people inside the campaign including this person, might not want to do so.

What you're seeing here, Chris, is a lot of rue, a lot of regrets, a lot of recrimination. How come they dug themselves into this hole that they are desperately trying to climb out of? Why wasn't the campaign on the attack months ago? Why wasn't Hillary more personal months ago?

A lot of the criticism focused on Mark Penn, the chief strategist. But the person who really deserves the blame, according to some of the insiders I've talked to, is really Hillary Clinton. Because the way she set up this campaign, she never really put a field man or woman in charge, somebody who really knew how to run field.

And the Obama campaign, quite frankly, has organized circles around them. Only now does the campaign, the Clinton campaign, have truly terrific people in some of these states especially Ace Smith in Texas, to name one example. But they didn't have anybody like that.

So some of the people who are close to Hillary are saying Ohio's not enough, she needs both Ohio and Texas if we, meaning we, Clinton people, are going to feel good about going forward. That even if they feel good, there is no real sense of elation. It's more avoiding a hanging than it is holding a wedding party.

MATTHEWS: Besides the imagery you've used about the hanging part, let me ask you about this numbing possibility. Suppose that at the end of the count tonight - I don't mean the popular vote count; I mean the delegate count. And we looked at all four states at stake tonight. Suppose, and I did think it's possible, at the end of it all, it's a draw. In other words, Obama didn't have a good night. Hillary Clinton had an OK night, but nobody gained in delegates. What happens then? Does Sen. Clinton push ahead or not?

FINEMAN: Well, I think especially if she wins a couple states at least. Say she wins Texas also, we don't know what's going to happen exactly. We know it's going to be close. My sense is that Hillary is going to definitely want to soldier on. I think the party leaders are not going to be able to prevent her from doing so.

I just got off the phone with one of her top supporters in the labor movement -

MATTHEWS: Right.


FINEMAN: Who told me, look, this thing is essentially tied. In terms of popular vote, Obama's ahead by a few hundred thousand votes out of 25 or 27 million cast. In terms of delegates, he's ahead by a few percentage points overall, even though it's more than 150. Nobody has walked away, this guy said. It's nomination fight that's essentially tied. And that's going to be the Clinton psychology.

But what's fascinating to me about it is that there's no joy there, at least that I can detect. There's no sense of excitement. There is a sort of - I hate to keep using the word - grim determination about it. But just because it's grim doesn't mean they won't continue.

MATTHEWS: Well, I know a fellow that roots for the Eagles every Sunday here, Howard, and you know who it is. It's Ed Rendell, the governor of Pennsylvania who has been through some tough afternoons. Gov. Rendell, let me ask you about not the Eagles tonight. They'll have another season next year and they will win everything.

But let me ask you about Pennsylvania. I know you can't say this on television. But, you know, I always like to ask you. Is it in the interest of the Democratic Party you once led for this fight to go seven more weeks through six more media markets through $30 million on both sides?

GOV. ED RENDELL (D), GOVERNOR OF PENNSYLVANIA: It depends, Chris. If Hillary

Clinton wins - she'd won Rhode Island. If she wins Ohio and Texas, I

absolutely believe it's not only correct, it's important. Because let's assume

for the moment Hillary Clinton wins Ohio and Texas. She wins Pennsylvania.

Florida and Michigan have primaries in June, she wins both of those.

Then can the superdelegates look at that and say gosh, she's won the last five big primaries in a row. She's won almost every big primary since we began. These are the states we have to carry and they aren't gimmes. Michigan isn't a gimme. Ohio, certainly isn't a gimme. Pennsylvania was 1.7 percent for John Kerry.

We've got to nominate the candidate who can win the blue states and the purple states. Barack Obama's a great candidate but he's not winning Wyoming. He's not winning Utah. He's not winning Idaho. So I think, yes, we want to have the best candidate, the strongest candidate in the fall. And I think this process will find out and develop who the strongest candidate is.

When you sit down with your pocket calculator, Governor, and look ahead to past Puerto Rico, can you see Sen. Clinton winning a majority of the elected delegates, if she wins Pennsylvania, if gets a new vote in Florida, and wins all the big ones.


RENDELL: Probably not, Chris. But I think if she does all that she'll probably be less than a percentage point behind in delegates. And then the superdelegates do have a role. We always have a role. And I think we should have a role, and that is to determine who, going into the convention, is our strongest candidate for the fall.

And look, if Sen. Barack Obama's the candidate, I'll work my heart out for him. But I think, right now, Hillary Clinton's the best standard-bearer for the states that we have to carry in the fall.

MATTHEWS: Let me ask you about the culture of Pennsylvania. It's a culturally

conservative state. I think one of your predecessors, the great Bob Casey, Sr.

once said that it's a John Wayne state, as you know. It's not a Jane Fonda

state. Given that setup, Jane Fonda, John Wayne, which one is which, Hillary

or Obama? Give them their slots

RENDELL: Well, I don't think either is either. I think both have a little John Wayne, both have a little Jane Fonda to be honest. But this is great state for Hillary. Number one, in the northeast section which is a vote rich section for Democrats, it's her hometown. She is beloved in the Scranton and greater Scranton area. In the southeast, Hillary Clinton probably spent more time in southeast Pennsylvania during Bill Clinton's presidency than any first lady.

Bill Clinton probably did more to help the turn around of Philadelphia and our region than anybody else. In western Pennsylvania, I think she'll do very, very well in western Pennsylvania and Erie and the Pittsburgh and Allegheny County area. It's the second oldest state in the union behind Florida. That's a great demographic for her. I think if she wins Texas and Ohio, she will go on and I think she'll win Pennsylvania by a solid vote.

MATTHEWS: Last question, organization. You've got the governor, you've got Chris Doherty(ph) up in Scranton who is with you. You've got Tommy Leonard, our buddy, down in Philly. You've got Mayor Nutter down in Philly. Are you going to be able to get a party endorsement from Bob Grady's organization in Philadelphia? In other words, will you be able to put the full imprimatur behind Sen. Clinton if this goes to a fight, April 22nd?

RENDELL: No, I wouldn't do that. I don't think Bob would ask for that and neither would I. Because we've got to respect our African-American ward leaders and we want to be together in the fall regardless. And I don't think we should try to force an endorsement of Hillary Clinton. It doesn't matter. Each ward leader, you know, they do their own thing, regardless -

(CROSS TALK)


MATTHEWS: They've been known to cut candidates occasionally.

RENDELL: Absolutely. I wouldn't force that. Look -

MATTHEWS: This is the greatest thing in history, by the way. I've been fighting seven weeks of bloodthirsty - fighting between two great Democrats, but in a way, in terms of great political love. Look at you. Yes, I know you're looking forward to seven weeks of thunder through Pennsylvania. What a fight. Thank you very much, Gov. Ed Rendell for joining us tonight.

RENDELL: See you, Chris. We're looking forward to seeing you on Thursday.

MATTHEWS: How many nickels I can get to rub together get up there?

RENDELL: See you.

OLBERMANN: All right. Ohio and Texas still too close to call among the Democrats. One thing the governor just said that might be of most interest, assuming we have primaries in Florida and Michigan in June. There are no more primaries to watch in the Republican campaign. John McCain now the presumptive nominee of the Republican Party. He is about to speak to his group at the Fairmount Hotel in Dallas, after tonight, clearing that 1200-delegate total that mathematically cinches the Republican nomination for John McCain whose career path at this point, is as exceptional and as unusual as any American politician. Might rival some of the great stories in pure rebound effect and having been written off as a political figure. As perhaps Winston Churchill, not to make undue comparisons, but talking about people who were written off prematurely in terms of their roles in their political systems. Here is John McCain, the presumptive nominee of the Republican Party for 2008.

SEN. JOHN MCCAIN (R-AZ), PRESUMPTIVE PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE OF THE REPUBLICAN

PARTY: Thank you. Thank you, Texas, Ohio, Vermont, and Rhode Island. Thank

you. I am very grateful for the broad support you have given our campaign. And

I am very, very grateful and pleased to note that tonight, my friends, we have

won enough delegates to claim with confidence, humility, and a great sense of


responsibility, that I will be the Republican nominee for president of the

United States.

(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)

I want to thank all of you here, all the Republicans, independents, and independent-thinking Democrats in all parts of the country who supported our campaign for the nomination and have brought us across the finish line first, an accomplishment that once seemed to more than a few doubters unlikely.

My friends, I know that all of us, all of us want to, again, commend my friend, Gov. Mike Huckabee. He is a great and fine and decent American and we appreciate - appreciate -

(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)

We appreciate the campaign he ran, his supporters for their passionate commitment to their campaign that Gov. Huckabee so ably represented. And I also want to thank all of my former rivals for the nomination and their supporters for their steadfast dedication to keeping America safe, prosperous, and proud.

Of course, I want to thank my family, my wife Cindy, my children,

(CHEERS AND APPLAUSE)

And our dear friends who have been throughout this campaign and will remain in

the challenging months ahead, an unwavering source of support and love.

My friends, now we begin the most important part of our campaign. To make a respectful, determined, and convincing case to the American people that our campaign and my election as president given the alternatives presented by our friends in the other party, are in the best interests of the country we love.


(CHEERS AND APPLAUSE)

I have never believed that I was destined to be president. I don't believe anyone is predestined to lead America. But I do believe that we were born with responsibilities to the country that has protected our God-given rights and the opportunities they afford us.

I didn't grow up with the expectation that my country owed me more than the rights owed every American. On the contrary, I owe my country every opportunity I have ever had. I owe her the meaning that service to America has given my life, and in the sense that I'm part of something greater than myself, part of a kinship of ideals that have always represented the last best hope of mankind.

I understand the responsibilities I incur with this nomination. And I give you my word, I will not evade or slight a single one. Our campaign must be and will be more than another tired debate of false promises, empty sound bites or useless arguments from the past that address not a single of America's concerns for their family's security.

My friends, presidential candidates are judged on their record, their character, and the whole of their life experiences. But we're also expected to concentrate our efforts on the challenges that will confront America on our watch and explain how we intend to address them.

As you well know, America is at war in two countries and involved in a long and difficult fight with violent extremists who despise us, our values and modernity itself. It is of little use for Americans for their candidates to avoid the many complex challenges of these struggles by re-litigating decisions of the past.

I will defend the decision to destroy Saddam Hussein's regime as I -

(CHEERS AND APPLAUSE)

As I also criticized the fail tactics that were employed for too long to establish the conditions that will allow us to leave that country with our country's interests secure and our honor intact.

(CHEERS AND APPLAUSE)

But Americans know that the next president doesn't get to remake that decision. We're in Iraq. And our most vital security interests are clearly involved there. The next president must explain how he or she intends to bring that war to the swiftest possible conclusion without exacerbating a sectarian conflict that could quickly descend into genocide, destabilizing the entire middle east, and enabling our adversaries in the region to extend their influence and undermine our security there, and emboldening terrorists to attack us elsewhere with weapons we dare not allow them to possess.

The next president of the United States must encourage the greater participation and cooperation of our allies in the fight against Al-Qaeda and the Taliban in Afghanistan. He must do that.


(CHEERS AND APPLAUSE)

The next president must lead an effort to restructure our military, our intelligence, our diplomacy, in all relevant branches of government to combat Islamic extremism, encourage the majority of moderates to win the battle for the soul of Islam and meet the many other rising challenges in this changing world.

My friends, I'll leave it to my opponents to argue that we should abrogate trade treaties and pretend the global economy will go away and Americans can secure our future by trading and investing only among ourselves. We will campaign in favor of seizing the opportunities presented by the growth of free markets throughout the world, helping displaced workers acquire new and lasting employment, and educating our children to prepare them for the new economic realities by giving parents choices about their children's education that they do not have now.

(CHEERS AND APPLAUSE)

I'll leave it to my opponent to claim that they can keep jobs and companies from going overseas by making it harder for them to do business here at home. We will campaign to strengthen job growth in America by helping businesses become more competitive with lower taxes and less regulation.

I will leave it to my opponent to propose returning to the failed big government mandates of the '60s and '70s to address problems such as the lack of healthcare insurance for some Americans. I will campaign to make healthcare more accessible to more Americans with reforms that will bring down costs in the healthcare industry without ruining the quality of the world's best medical care.

(CHEERS AND APPLAUSE)

And I will campaign to reduce our dangerous dependence on foreign oil with an energy policy that encourages American industry and technology to make our country safer, cleaner, and more prosperous by leading the world in the use, development, and discovery of alternative sources of energy.

(CHEERS AND APPLAUSE)

My friends, these are some of the challenges that confront us. There are others just as urgent. And during this campaign, I will travel across the country in cities and rural areas, in communities of all ethnic backgrounds and income levels offering my ideas and listening, listening to the concerns and advice of Americans. Americans aren't interested in an election where they are just talked to and not listened to. An election -

(CHEERS AND APPLAUSE)

An election that offers platitudes instead of principals and insults instead of ideas, an election results in no matter who wins in four years of unkept promises and a government that's just a battleground for the next election.


My friends, the American people's patience is at an end for politicians who value ambition over principle and for partisanship that is less than a contest of ideas than an uncivil brawl over the spoils of power. My friends -

(CHEERS AND APPLAUSE)

My friends, nothing, nothing, nothing is inevitable in America. We are the captains of our fate. We are not a country that prefers nostalgia to optimism, a country that would rather go back than forward. We are the world's leader, and leaders don't pine for the past and dread the future. We make the future better than the past. We don't hide from history. We make history.

(CHEERS AND APPLAUSE)

(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)

That, my friends, is the essence of hope in America, hope built on courage and faith and the values and principles that have made us great. I intend to make my stand on those principles and chart a course for our future greatness and trust, and trust in the judgment of the people I have served all my life.

(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)

So stand up with me, my friend, stand up and fight for America, for her strength, her ideals, and her future. The contest begins tonight.

(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)

MCCAIN: As you know, like all campaigns, it will have its ups and downs, but we will fight every minute of every day to make certain that we have a government that is as capable, wise, brave, and decent as the great people we serve. That's our responsibility. And I won't let you down.

Thank you, and God bless you. And God bless America. Thank you.

(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)


KEITH OLBERMANN, MSNBC ANCHOR: Senator John McCain, now the nominee presumptive of the Republican Party, surviving prompter failure during his speech at Dallas tonight, saying he never felt himself destined to be president, though he has sought the job for at least a decade or so.

Saying his opponent should abrogate trade treaties which probably was a veiled reference not to CAFTA but to NAFTA. And re-pricing Iraq. The next president must explain, said Senator McCain, how he or she intends to bring that war to the swiftest possible conclusion without exacerbating a sectarian conflict that could quickly descend into genocide.

So we are down from 100 years to whatever that means. Also, one other note about this, before that speech, John McCain got a congratulatory phone call from Senator Barack Obama, who said he's looking forward to running against him.

CHRIS MATTHEWS, MSNBC ANCHOR: Right. And I think that was a big repositioning on the war issue from being identified with a 100-year war proposition to beings one who is daring the Democrats to match him, to bring the troops after victory as quickly as possible. Tim Russert is NBC's Washington bureau chief, and of course, moderator of "MEET THE PRESS."

Tim, I was just thinking that throughout the history of the conservative parties in this country, whether they be called the Whigs or the Republicans, when in trouble, they have gone to a military man, whether it's Ike or it's William Henry Harrison or Zachary Taylor, or General Grant, of course, and here we have John McCain, very much a martial man, not running as a politician, but a man who is a standup soldier for his country it seems.

TIM RUSSERT, NBC NEWS WASHINGTON BUREAU CHIEF: I thought he was most

energized when he used the phrase fight, fight for America. John McCain loves

a good fight. And there is no doubt he is going to be a very combative

candidate. Try to keep the campaign civil but he will be combative.

I heard your discussion with Keith earlier on about "John W. McCain," guys. Thank - for BlackBerrys. I sent to a few Democrats saying, are you really going to do the "John W. McCain" in light of the middle name controversy? And the response came back, OK, fine, it will be the "Bush-McCain war," the "Bush-McCain recession," the "Bush-McCain economy."

So it's very clear the Democratic strategy is to tie John McCain so tightly to George W. Bush. And I think the idea of the recession in economy is so important. As one of the Democratic operatives said, don't overcomplicate this, this is the third term of a Republican administration in the middle of a recession. Keep it simple. Keep it focused.

And I think while we heard a lot from John McCain about national security tonight, we didn't hear much about the economy. And finally, John McCain talking about trade agreements and abrogating them, Ohio is a very battleground state, as we well know from 2004. And NAFTA and trade is a very serious issue in that state. And if John McCain is going to go into that state as an unabashed free trader, I think it would give the Democrats a real opportunity to have that debate in that state that they did not have in 2004 and 2000.


OLBERMANN: And that number in the exit polls - excuse me, Chris. That number in the exit polls, Tim, was astounding that NAFTA takes way more jobs, was the choice, takes away or adds jobs, and in Ohio, it was 81 to 8, 81 to 8 in favor of NAFTA taking jobs away in the opinion of those who voted in the primary in Ohio tonight.

I mean, who could you not run against somebody who supported and defended NAFTA under those circumstances and prevail?

RUSSERT: And a third of those voters in that primary, Keith, were independents and Republican. That's a very important point and you have to underscore that. Also, keep thinking, economy, recession, third Republican term. Based on what I'm hearing from the Democrats tonight, they see it as a real vulnerability with John McCain.

MATTHEWS: Let me ask you about the blue-red state - the divide that you and I talk about. You especially, with regard to the key states to look at. If you look at the latest word from the McCain camp, they are basically looking at a new look at California and hoping to put it in play. Maine, of course, Connecticut, New Jersey, I think also Pennsylvania, if the Democrats can't get their act together, certainly Ohio.

Where do you see the opportunity for McCain to pull back from history? He said we make history, we don't live with it, or whatever. Making history would mean breaking with the curve of events. People want change. McCain says, OK, I'll give you a certain amount of change, but mainly I'm going to give you something close to the center. How does he do it state by state?

MATTHEWS: Well, the Republicans have talked with the McCain candidacy the potential of Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa. They see a lot of those Midwest states that had been drifting away from the Republicans, moving back to a more mainstream moderate Republican. Now that John McCain has won the nomination, we can use those terms.

They see those states in play. California, still difficult, no doubt about it. On the other hand, Chris, the Democrats see states like Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, they had hoped Arizona, but with McCain's candidacy, that's gone. But they see those Rocky Mountain states back in play.

MATTHEWS: So you are sticking with the Southwest. I have heard this theory, Tim, months ago you had this. You are sticking to the theory. It's not Florida. It's not Ohio. I love studying your pattern. It is the Southwest states still.

RUSSERT: Yes. But I think Ohio tonight, hearing Senator McCain on trade, I think that provides a real opportunity.

MATTHEWS: OK. Thank you - Keith.

OLBERMANN: Tim, before we let you go, give us a little perspective here as we switch back to the Democrats. Because as first Mr. Huckabee and then Mr. McCain spoke, nothing changed in our too-close-to-call states. You mentioned the Southwest, Texas, Ohio, what are you hearing?

RUSSERT: The models keep this show then too close to call. We are looking at the early vote in from Texas. How that's dividing. Still waiting for Harris County, Houston to come in because that should be big Obama country. It's so important to find out who exactly voted. How big is this turnout and where it's coming from.


I listened to Governor Rendell's interview with Chris very carefully. And he kept saying if Hillary Clinton wins Rhode Island, Ohio, and Texas, he kept saying all three, and then, as you pointed out, he tacked in there these are new primaries, the do-overs of Michigan and Florida in June. But he seemed to continue with that predicate that she had to win all three to continue out of tonight.

And I think obviously in a few hours we should have a pretty good sense as to whether she achieved that.

OLBERMANN: Well, just don't stand too close to the goal posts.

(LAUGHTER)

OLBERMANN: They move rather frequently in the Democratic campaign. Tim Russert, thank you, we will check back with you shortly, I'm sure. And for more on that twofold process in Texas which requires a refresher course every hour, certainly, let's check back in with Lester Holt who is at a caucus site at a Houston elementary school.

Lester, good evening again.

LESTER HOLT, MSNBC CORRESPONDENT: Keith, good evening to you.

Remember, a third of the delegates are rewarded through the caucus process.

Only people who voted in the primary could caucus tonight. I wish you could

have seen what we witnessed in this room about an hour ago, almost 400 people

here, they signed in their preference and then everybody waited while on the

stage a group of people were sitting with pads and calculators. It was


politics at its most raw as they were adding up the votes and then doing the

math, trying to find the delegate.

In this one precinct, a heavily Democratic precinct, we can tell you that in the caucus voting tonight, it was 222 for Obama, 168 for Hillary Clinton. That broke down to 45 delegates that were awarded to this precinct, it was 26 Obama, 19 Hillary.

Now it's interesting to note that a total of 961 people from this precinct voted in the primary, most of them early. Another 600 voted in person here today. So they only got about 40 percent of those people who came back and took part in this caucusing process. And that's why it was so important for these candidates to do well in the caucus, that two-step. If you want to win in Texas, you need to do well in both. It's possible to win the popular vote but then lose here in the caucus.

We've got one of the caucus attendees tonight. Your name is...

TONY HALAT, CLINTON SUPPORTER: Tony Halat.

HOLT: Tony Halat. This is your first, like most people in this room...

HALAT: Yes.

HOLT:... this was your first caucus.

HALAT: Yes. I had never been to a caucus.

HOLT: Describe the experience.

HALAT: It was really exciting to be here on the ground floor of this process and to see everybody so passionate and you know, lots of words back and forth. But in the end the votes were counted up. Everything was fair and I think that the people have spoken.


HOLT: You are a Hillary Clinton supporter...

HALAT: Correct.

HOLT:... who came here tonight.

HALAT: Yes, we would like to have seen a few more delegates for Hillary, but you know, she did pretty well.

HOLT: Boy, a lot of people, I just noted, a lot of people who voted in the primary did not show up tonight for both sides. So it was a big part of it.

HALAT: Yes. Although I think probably in the past it was the much lower percentage of people who came out to caucus.

HOLT: In fact, I can tell you, I was told in this precinct four years ago they figured at tops they would get 45 people. Tonight I think the total was 391 people. So do you feel better about the process, at least?

HALAT: Yes, I feel really good.

HOLT: All right. Well, sorry your candidate didn't win in this precinct. We are still waiting to find out what happens across Texas. So we will wait and watch with the rest with everyone.

But, Keith, what a fascinating thing to watch here, because so much of politics, you think of machines and these big organizations. This was just the raw stuff. Neighbors, people who may know each other, have seen each other in the streets crowding into a cafeteria at an elementary school writing down their preference and then watching their vote or their reference count right there on a piece of paper and a calculator and then the announcement of how it broke here.

But obviously everyone still waiting to find out how their candidates do in the state of Texas overall. Back to you.

OLBERMANN: A rare remaining component from the original idea of democracy, a show of hands and just write it down. Lester Holt at one of the Texas caucuses. Thank you, Lester.


MATTHEWS: Let's go now and get an update from the Clinton campaign.

NBC's Andrea Mitchell was with the campaign in Columbus, Ohio.

Andrea, where is that confetti?

ANDREA MITCHELL, NBC CHIEF FOREIGN AFFAIRS CORRESPONDENT: They do not

have the results yet, as you don't. And they are already challenging - on a

conference call with all of us, challenging what's going on with those

caucuses, especially in Harris County, that is, as Lester and you all were

talking about, and Tim Russert earlier. That's the Houston area, Obama

stronghold of Texas.

They are claiming that they may have legal challenges because precinct captains for Obama locked out Clinton supporters who were in line and couldn't get in and that there were other irregularities. And interestingly, in the middle of this conference call - as you know, Chris, this goes on every day, they have these conference calls. Bob Bauer, a lawyer for Obama joined on the conference call and got into an argument with Howard Wolfson.

So it just tells you how tough this hand to hand combat is as the Clinton people seem to be already trying to lay the predicate for discounting the Texas results. As you know, they have always criticized caucuses in this round and now again already saying that there might be something wrong with what's going on in Texas - Chris.

MATTHEWS: We just heard Governor Rendell. And Tim point this out, that Governor Rendell said that Senator Clinton needs to win three tonight. She has already lost Vermont. She has won Rhode Islands, two in play, Ohio and Texas. The governor says she has to win three. Does this mean that they can gainsay that by denying the relevance of the results from Texas?


MITCHELL: Oh, Chris, you're - you've got such a sneaky mind. Actually, that is exactly what they are doing. You know, Ed Rendell told me that the other day. And he is sticking to it. He discussed it with Bill Clinton last Thursday morning when they met in Philadelphia. We talked about it last night, you and I, on "HARDBALL." And he is not wavering even though clearly she and others are trying - she, Hillary Clinton, and others are trying to move the goal post.

But what the Clinton campaign, I think, will do if they don't win Texas is say that it was stolen from them and still say that they can go ahead despite support from pressure from Ed Rendell, Bill Richardson, and other superdelegates.

MATTHEWS: We was robbed. Anyway, thank you, Andrea Mitchell, with the Clinton campaign in Ohio - actually, in Cleveland. Let's go right now to Obama headquarters in San Antonio with NBC's Lee Cowan.

Are they optimistic there about Texas or where are their heads right now?

LEE COWAN, NBC CORRESPONDENT: I think it's fair to say that they are cautious about it. I think they knew it was going to be close. They have been saying for the past several days...

(AUDIO GAP)

COWAN:... I don't think they quite expected it to be this close. But I

think no matter...

(AUDIO GAP)

COWAN:... I think that they...

MATTHEWS: We are getting some problems there. Keith - well, let's go to Joe Scarborough and the panel. I just saw the sign. There we go.

Hey, Joe.


JOE SCARBOROUGH, HOST, "MORNING JOE": All right. Very good. Thank you so much. So I heard Howard Fineman earlier say tonight that there's no champagne in the Clinton headquarters, but you look at these poll numbers, these results that are coming out. Ohio with about a third of the vote in, she is trouncing Barack Obama. In Texas, after going ahead with an early vote, Hillary Clinton is cutting that lead. It looks like the wind is still at Hillary's back.

RACHEL MADDOW, MSNBC POLITICAL ANALYST: Still at end - all she has got so far is Rhode Island. Barack Obama has got Vermont. It still remains to be seen. But the thing they are going to have to grapple with is the thing that we talked about the very top of the coverage tonight, which is that wasn't very long ago when Bill Clinton said if she doesn't get Texas and Ohio, this thing is over.

If that calculus has changed, they are going to have to come up with an explanation for why that calculus is wrong.

SCARBOROUGH: But you know what strikes me, though, is, I have heard on a lot of the networks, I've heard - I've read on the blogs, it all seems negative about Hillary Clinton and yet, tonight, she could carry off a big victory. And we are still hearing spin about champagne bottles and a grimace - what did Howard say? A grim determination or something like that.

EUGENE ROBINSON, THE WASHINGTON POST: Well, that's how he is reporting it, but I don't think I would pop any champagne until Cuyahoga County came in in Ohio, until Harris County, which is Houston, came in in Texas. And there is essentially only early voting so far in Houston.

I mean, there's just no results from today have been counted at all. That is likely to be very big for Obama. So, you know, I mean, let's see how the evening goes before we pop the corks.

SCARBOROUGH: Well, and I'm not saying we need to do that. All I'm saying, though, Pat Buchanan, is there seems to be an attempt to bury - and not by Howard Fineman, but by a lot of people to go ahead and write the obituary. A lot of columnists have been saying drop out of the race, drop out of the race.

She could - if you look at the trends, she could win three of four states.

PAT BUCHANAN, MSNBC POLITICAL ANALYST: She could. She has got to do

much better in Texas. But I do agree with you. I think there's a repudiation

and a rejection of Obama if these returns hold in Ohio and if, in fact, her

attack ads and the phone call ads...


SCARBOROUGH: It's a 20-point lead in Ohio right now.

BUCHANAN: And the phone call ad, if these things worked in Ohio, as we have talked, after primary after primary, Obama is getting votes like 90 percent of the African-American votes, the professoriate and the intellectuals, and the kids, he's getting all of that, Republicans don't get that.

MADDOW: I don't understand how Missouri is the professoriate. You know? How Missouri and Georgia and Virginia and all of these places. You attempt to pigeonhole and stereotype people who are supporting him, and it gets ridiculous when you have to wrap Utah and Illinois into the same stereotype.

BUCHANAN: It may be ridiculous, but let me tell you, if you're talking about the white ethnic blue collar voters, men and women who went 55, 56 percent for Hillary, that is Reagan Democrats. Republicans, and McCain especially, war hero, military, he can win them if he gets off this NAFTA thing, because that's the killer in Ohio.

SCARBOROUGH: Then the question is...

ROBINSON: He is not going to get off of that, is he?

MADDOW: He is not going to get off of that.

(CROSSTALK)

MADDOW:... himself as never moving on it.

SCARBOROUGH: In the end, does this come down to the fact that Barack Obama needs to prove that he can close the sale, that he can do it tonight? If Hillary wins Texas, Ohio, Rhode Island, does he fail at closing that sale once again like he did in New Hampshire and California?

ROBINSON: Well, I think the campaign will be disappointed if he doesn't win one of the big states. Because if winning one of the big states, the Obama campaign believes, would essentially seal the deal, would make the point that he is trying to make.

What you will hear from the campaign is, yes, but we have either got more delegates or we have got parity in delegates or whatever, and that likely would be true. So we would go on to the next week.


But you know, you would say they would have to be disappointed if they don't win one of those big states.

SCARBOROUGH: Well, and again, and...

BUCHANAN: If you don't win one of the big states, the souffle falls, Joe.

SCARBOROUGH: Well, I don't know that the souffle falls, because the chef still has the most butter in the pantry, and that would be Barack Obama, regardless.

BUCHANAN: Have you ever seen it rise a second time?

(LAUGHTER)

SCARBOROUGH: You know what, I don't watch the Food Network enough to follow you here, Buchanan, but anyway, that 3:00 a.m. ad may have worked in Texas, we shall see as the night goes on. But results still not in (INAUDIBLE) from there.

Now back to Keith and Chris.

OLBERMANN: Anthony Bourdain in the panel, great thanks. One other note here, signs in Columbus, Ohio. There's a handwritten sign at Clinton headquarters there that reads "meet me in Indiana." Indiana's Democratic primary is May 6th. We are going to need some more chairs and some more water.

Coming up, both Texas and Ohio still too close to call among the Democrats. Take a closer look at what's going on in both states. NBC News political director Chuck Todd by the numbers.

Plus, NBC's Brian Williams joins us. MSNBC's DECISION 2008 coverage continues after this.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)


OLBERMANN: Ohio and Texas, too close to call on the Democratic side tonight. In fact, a report from Cuyahoga County, that is the Cleveland area, that it will not be fully counted until, wait for it, 4:30 a.m. Eastern time. That doesn't mean we won't know what will have happened before 4:30, but the final count will not be in from the Ohio Department of State because of delays there both of the lack of votes - ballots, actual ballots, and also weather delays because of the bad rains and flooding in the Ohio area.

Now, twice previously when we have discussed why these races are too close to call, with our NBC News political director Chuck Todd, who is standing up there with a map.

Twice before, while we have done this, suddenly it wasn't too close to call and apparently we are trying to wrap this up early or something. So try to answer the question before the bell goes off.

CHUCK TODD, NBC NEWS POLITICAL DIRECTOR: All right. I will start talking fast now. But let me show you why things are still too close to call in Ohio. Everybody has seen this big lead for Clinton. She's 40 percent reporting. However, here's what's not reported. We've got zero percent in Hamilton County, that's Cincinnati. We have got almost zero percent in Montgomery, that state. And we've got about 1 percent reporting in Toledo. And of course, you broke the news on Cuyahoga County, we've got very little, a trickle, about 2 percent reporting in Cuyahoga County.

So when you look at four of the largest cities in the state where you have less than 5 percent reporting, you're not going to be comfortable calling it anything other than too close to call when you want to see these numbers. Particularly, these are places, Cincinnati and Cleveland in particular, where Obama believes he was going to do very well where there are large African-American populations. And we still have no numbers from that.

By the way, interesting to note in Franklin County and Columbus right now, Obama is winning Franklin County. This is - (INAUDIBLE) mild surprise, this was supposed to be pretty much a 50/50 county. So far it looks like Obama is doing very well there. But she is - Clinton is cleaning up in these rural counties. And that's what has been reporting first. So keep that in mind.

As for Texas, get our friend up here. What we are seeing is almost all early vote. When you look - and it is actually great, the Texas secretary of state site is very good about splitting up what early vote is in. Basically, all of the early vote is reported except for one important metropolitan area, and that is Houston, Harris County.

When all of the other early vote being reported has Clinton with about a 4,000-vote lead just among that early vote, which appears apparently is going to make up somewhere between 25 and 35 percent of the vote.

But you throw in Harris County, and it is likely to have - Obama is going to have some sort of boost there. We just don't from have that - numbers yet. They don't have those reports.

A few other things to remember about Texas, Obama's vote is actually likely to be counted earlier, unlike Ohio where Obama's votes are going to come in late. In Texas, Obama's votes are going to come in early. It's going to be some of the Hillary Clinton's vote that can trickle in late. As someone who has watched a lot of House races and a lot of long-delayed counts, particularly in that old Henry Bonilla seat - he is no longer there, but in the 23rd congressional seat down there on the border over here, you can wait a very long time for some of those border counties.

So it could be a very long night in Texas waiting for some Hillary Clinton vote and a very long night in Ohio waiting for some Barack Obama vote.

OLBERMANN: So you are expecting perhaps in Texas a jump up in Obama initially as the - tonight's votes start getting counting and then it perhaps leveling off?


TODD: You should see some ebb and flow. It wouldn't be surprising to see Obama have early spurts when the count comes and early bursts where his number pops up where - and then Clinton catching up as the number - as the night wears on, and almost the opposite effect in Ohio.

OLBERMANN: All right. So nothing in Cincinnati, nothing in Dayton. Toledo, 1 percent. Cleveland - oh, wait a minute, Chuck, I'm just getting a message here. No, they are both still too close to call.

TODD: Funny guy.

OLBERMANN: I just had to do it.

TODD: Funny guy.

OLBERMANN: NBC and MSNBC political director Chuck Todd. Thanks, Chuck.

TODD: All right, pal.

OLBERMANN: Still a very strange angle to be interviewing anybody at. A more direct path looking down the hallway, let's turn to the anchor of "NBC NIGHTLY NEWS,: Brian Williams for perspective on what we have seen tonight.

I guess that's the overall perspective, obviously the Republicans are done, everything else is fasten your seatbelts.

BRIAN WILLIAMS, NBC ANCHOR: And better perspective than that view you have of Chuck Todd, I'm sorry for you both. It's like a little mini Hyatt Regency balcony there. And it's not pretty. I've been down where you are looking up at Chuck. No offense to Chuck.

And by the way, we should lay out the layout here. You are behind me

through this shielded - hi there. You are through this glass window. I get


to see more of Rachel Maddow every night than she would ever in her wildest

dreams know. And she drinks a lot, that's all I'm going to say. So we have...

(LAUGHTER)

WILLIAMS:... back through this - it's a liquid. That's all I know. And Gene is always well behaved. But it's - there she is. OK, I know, paybacks. So it's this long corridor, and we are back here while you are on the air all night, Keith. We are doing - I guess tonight we did five straight live feeds of "NIGHTLY NEWS" going across the time zones.

So what a strange view of politics in America it gave us. You know, we have got to say the John McCain campaign, left for dead on the side of the road a few months ago. There was speculation that he couldn't continue to keep his bus running, absolutely amazing. Interesting speech tonight by Huckabee, and this long night that a lot of people didn't see coming in both Ohio and Texas.

So we are following this story along with you and the Chuck Todd rule has been broken. It stopped at two, right?

OLBERMANN: Yes. That doesn't mean we are not going to ask him again later why they are still close to call and it doesn't happen one more time. But I use this analogy not in terms of political content, orientation, anything else, success, what he will have to face, but the parallel here between the career of John McCain and perhaps the career of Winston Churchill.

For as Winston Churchill used to say, if he died in 1938, nobody would have remembered him, never mind being the wartime leader of Britain and the prime minister at age 65. The McCain story, no matter what happens from here, is a fascinating political biography.

WILLIAMS: I heard you make that comparison earlier and I loved it because it's such great reading and people should go back now and see what happened in the history of the United Kingdom that brought him back.

And you know, when he had to ditch into the lake in the middle of Saigon, I mean, it was an extraordinary story, this great young naval aviator, son of an admiral, and the people, the men he was with for the years in the Hanoi Hilton in the years he was there, what he put up with, struggling to then get a political foothold back in the United States in Arizona, struggling to put his physical body back together, there is no quit in the guy.

He has sometimes joked that he's been scared by the professionals. So a minor thing like life, running for president, a political campaign, you've got to bring it worse than that if you're going to get John McCain's attention. People would be well counseled to remember those qualities and traits as this campaign goes on. And you're right to point it out.

OLBERMANN: And he survived a teleprompter failure during a speech tonight.


WILSON: That's right. And he likes that head-on ballroom teleprompter in the back of the room as opposed to that dual plate glass kind that you and I...

OLBERMANN: Which reminds me again of from the beginning of the campaign after when he tried the speech after a good night and had nothing and was reading off notes and obviously improved on the technology.

WILSON: Look what it's done for your career and mine.

OLBERMANN: I was just going to say. For both of us. Brian Williams, great thanks.

WILSON: Bye.

OLBERMANN: By down there. All right.

More results from the exit polls. We will also check back in with the panel and do the Chuck Todd thing again. That's MSNBC's decision 2008 coverage continues with once again, Texas and Ohio too close to call among the Democrats after this.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

OLBERMANN: Vermont is Obama's. Rhode Island is Clinton's. But otherwise, too close to call among the Democrats. In Texas whereas we just heard if you missed it Chuck Todd explaining why it too close to call. That's almost all early voting, and not even the early voting from Houston which the numbers are extraordinary by themselves.

And too close to call in Ohio where as Chuck reported, we are getting basically zero percent from Cincinnati, zero percent from Dayton, about one percent from Toledo, about two percent from Cleveland, Cuyahoga County, no count until at least 4:30 in the morning.

Meanwhile, as we pointed out, also in Rhode Island, Senator Clinton is the projected winner, we don't know about the margin there. And in Vermont where he is looking to get around two thirds in a threshold state for proportional delegate assignment. The projection simply at this point is Senator Obama is the winner in Vermont.

So one apiece. Too close to call. And of course on the Republican side, the presumptive nominee John McCain having crossed the necessary threshold of 1,191. His only remaining challenger with any remote chance of the nomination, Governor Huckabee basically conceding saying that Senator McCain would be the nominee. They spoke, McCain and Huckabee to each other and then to the media.


Senator Obama called to Senator McCain to congratulate him. He is the now Republican presumptive nominee. And what we are getting is further information, more exit polls, new numbers in Texas where the numbers are just beginning to trickle in and will certainly be fascinating. Once again, Norah O'Donnell with those. Norah?

O'DONNELL: And you have called Texas, of course, too close to call. You know what they say in Texas, don't mess with Texas. Well, in Texas, we are closely watching the composition of the Democratic primary electorate today and we are finding some very interesting things. One key question is how big a share of the electorate do African-Americans and Hispanics make up? The more African Americans, the better it is for Barack Obama. The more Hispanics, the better it is for Hillary Clinton.

Well, our exit polls shows an increase in Hispanic voters from 2004 with an African-American share that remains about the same as four years ago.

And as we look more closely at the Hispanic vote, we find that Hillary Clinton is winning Hispanics by a margin of nearly two to one.

And of course Texas has the second largest Hispanic population in the country after California. Now, turning to white voters, Clinton is edging out Obama overall but take a look at the gender breakdown. And here is what is interesting. Clinton is winning white women by 19 points. That's 59 percent to 40 percent, that's on the inside there.

But the white male vote is a virtual dead heat, 50 for Clinton, 49 percent for Obama. One of the key swing groups of course. On the breakdown by age, Obama is still winning younger voters, including Hispanics under age 30. Older voters favor Clinton and on party affiliation our exit poll show both independents and Republicans were factors in this primary in Texas. In fact, they made up a third of the electorate today.

And among the self-identified Democrats, Clinton is leading, but among the self-identified independents and Republicans and cross-over Republicans, those two bottom groups made up a third of the electorate today.

It's also interesting tonight that in Texas Clinton appears to be leading among the late deciders. She is winning among those voters who said they decided on their nominee in the last week. So that could be interesting. Chris and Keith, back to you.

OLBERMANN: All right. Thank you, Nora with the exit polls, some of the demographics out of Texas. Let's turn now to NBC News chief White House correspondent David Gregory to cut some of these apart further.

All right. As near I can follow it. Clinton is getting Hispanics, white women and older voters, general, Obama, African-American voters and younger. No surprises in any of those. A tie among white males?

GREGORY: Right. And that's going to be some evidence of what we have been seeing Barack Obama building over these victories. It was 12 in a row. But now we are projecting Rhode Island for Clinton. That will be an important group for Obama in Texas. But we are still seeing evidence of the pre-Potomac primary coalition on both sides starting to gel.

I think what's interesting, talking to some of the Obama people tonight, they are positions themselves to make an argument about the math, not about momentum. They feel good about Texas. They say at this stage, it's still very, very close there. Ohio as well. But with Clinton winning, at least projected to win Rhode Island, and if she can win Ohio, even people close to Obama say tonight she's going to have some bragging rights coming out of tonight that could be helpful to her putting the Obama campaign in the position of day in and day out arguing the math, arguing however many delegates Clinton can pull out of tonight that it won't be enough to catch and continuing to make the push on super delegates beginning to break his way, and that's the new narrative that could potentially come out of tonight with both sides spinning.


A new way to look at this race. We said, Keith, earlier on tonight it was a new way to look at this race. And we said, Keith, earlier on tonight it was about whether there could be some change in the dynamic. That's what both sides are watching very carefully now.

OLBERMANN: And do we have anything more on what the Clinton campaign is doing with these precinct packets? There's another complaint about what went on in the caucuses. Are we getting again that little pre-softening up to suggest that whatever happens in Texas, it wasn't legitimate unless it favored Senator Clinton?

GREGORY: Well, there are certainly concerns that have been raised and we have also seen some confrontation between a lawyer for the Obama campaign and the Clinton communications people, so they are going to fight this out to the end. You heard Terry McAuliffe said earlier tonight he likes primaries, not caucuses, so this is a razor thin margin that we are talking about in Texas. And it is going to be fought all the way. There's a will the of bragging rights that are being fought over tonight. Bragging rights over the math, bragging rights over momentum, bragging rights over whether voters should take a second look at Barack Obama and perhaps some doubts trying to be created. Lots of ways to try to spin a new way to look at the race to keep the race going.

OLBERMANN: All right, David. David Gregory, thanks.

GREGORY: Thanks.

MATTHEWS: Let's talk to supporters with both Democratic candidates. Starting with Lisa Caputo, a Clinton supporter, served as Hillary Clinton's press secretary when of course she was first lady. Lisa, tonight, what makes first victory for Senator Clinton? What does it take?

LISA CAPUTO, CLINTON SUPPORTER: It's interesting. Now we hear the Obama campaign saying, oh no, it's not about momentum, it's about delegate count, which is the complete reverse of what we heard coming out of Super Tuesday and over the last primaries. I think tonight what you are seeing, Chris, come through is the sheer grit of the candidate herself who has just been tireless.

She's going to come out of this tonight, it looks like, you know, hopefully winning Ohio and Texas. She has obviously won Rhode Island, but I think a couple of thins are important to note. One is her message has changed and it's resonating. You saw in the exit polls, late deciders are going with Hillary Clinton. That means she's doing something right on her messaging. Her message on the economy. Her message on national security, and whether or not Barack Obama is ready to be candidate in chief is resonating.

Second, they have put Obama on the defensive on NAFTA, on the national security issues so that is resonating and let's remember one thing, the Clinton campaign was outspent in these states. So the sheer fact that she's either close or going to win these is really something.

MATTHEWS: What about Texas? Do you believe that your campaign, Senator Clinton can simply reject that count and say that state doesn't count tonight because they don't like the way the vote was organized, the fact that the caucuses being scheduled after the primary, they don't like the whole setup in Texas, can your campaign reject the results?

CAPUTO: I don't think any campaign can reject results, Chris, but I think that you can contest and see whether or not the process was carried out fairly. I don't know the details of what's transpired in Texas. There were reports going on throughout the day about Obama people showing up at polling stations in Ohio. I've heard the noise coming out of Texas. But I think any candidate has a legitimate complaint if they see any kind of indication of something gone awry or not being a fair ball. But I don't think you just reject it outright, no.

MATTHEWS: Let me ask you with how we keep count as you see it now. If tonight's tally, after we look through all four states and count all the delegates through the primaries and the caucuses in Texas and it turns out that the result tonight was a net zero, that nobody moved in terms of the relative strength of their numbers, what would that achieve for your candidate, for Senator Clinton?


CAPUTO: I think if the delegate count is net zero, I think you have to look at the momentum question. You just can't discount that, and that should mean more money for Hillary Clinton and I think it totally raises the question of super delegates and where they are going to go.

And it means that both candidates are still in play. Both candidates go into the races next week and then into Pennsylvania on April 22nd. So I think that this remains quite a contest, and I think that, again, you will see her continue to stay on the offensive with her message on her economic plan going after him, on NAFTA, and then also on the national security argument, whether or not he is ready to be commander in chief, that is clearly raising questions.

It's a question I think people are thinking about whether they have buyer's remorse.

MATTHEWS: Well, you have to buy first to have remorse. I know that phrase is all over the place but it's not strictly true. You have to buy to send back the product. These are new voters that may be getting second thoughts - I think your point is clear that they are having second thoughts. Thank you, Lisa Caputo with the Clinton campaign. We will talk Obama supporter Ron Kirk, the former mayor of Dallas a little later on.

OLBERMANN: Right now we are joined once again by NBC's Tom Brokaw. We have been threatening almost to get back to this subject of your reporting on 50 superdelegates essentially in Obama's back pocket and there was a Politico story that the Clinton - there is a rearguard action from the Clinton campaign to keep its superdelegates in the fold. Are these two things related and what can you amplify on what you've reported previously, Tom?

TOM BROKAW, NBC NEWS ANCHOR: They are related. The Obama superdelegates who have not yet been rolled out, so to speak, are getting a fair amount of pressure from the Clinton campaign. But I am told tonight by somebody very close to Senator Obama's campaign that their super delegates are holding. The plan now at the moment is probably to roll them out in the news cycle over the next several weeks. If this campaign goes on, beginning tomorrow for the next seven weeks into Pennsylvania, as it now appears more likely will, given the tonight and the comments tonight from the Clinton campaign, then these super delegates will be more important not just for the place they occupy in the delegate column but for the sense of momentum.

I'm also told by people close to the Obama campaign that whatever gains Senator Clinton makes tonight in delegates, they think it's going to be in the range of 15 or 16 in terms of the total pick up. That they can cancel that out in Wyoming and in Mississippi. These are the two coming up in the next week or so.

OLBERMANN: So the super delegates that we are talking about are not just faceless, behind the scenes manipulators, but name recognition events - is each one going to be a story?

BROKAW: I am told that they are not superstars and there is not a presidential candidate among them so it is not Bill Richardson or John Edwards. But their people have not yet made a commitment. Numbers count at this stage. And they will continue to all the day in Denver come the summer. If I could, I'd like to make some observation about John McCain in looking at these exit poll numbers tonight. We have to remember that in Texas we are seeing a lot of independents and Republicans coming out of the polling booth saying they pulled the lever for the Democrats. Sixty percent of them in Texas says that they are very worried about the financial condition of their family in the next year. John McCain has not talked much about the economy in the course of this campaign. He's put a big stack of chips on his national security credentials. That will become an issue for him and especially if he is embraced politically by President Bush tomorrow.

During the course of this last year of the president's administration when the country is now squarely in a recession according to warren buffet and many others. So that's going to be something that John McCain is going to have to be addressing sooner rather than later.

MATTHEWS: Tom, you know it's been said by the Clinton people and fairly so that other fights for party nominations have gone into June. Certainly they have. But this campaign began much earlier than any other campaign we can remember. Isn't this the longest fight between two people for the presidency, the one we are watching right now?

BROKAW: Well, the conditions are much different now, Chris. We have 24/7 here on MSNBC and the other cable channels. We have all the Web sites that are devoted to this. The blog tonight, the Politico, for example, is moment by moment tracking what is is going on. So it is more intense now. A lot of campaigns in the past have started earlier, but they have been off the radar screen for most voters in this country until it reached their region of the country.


That's no longer true. It's all now, small screen, either television or the Internet, and it's almost inescapable. If you go to any airport or bar in America or anyplace where there's a television set, you see all politics all the time these days, and it has generated an enormous amount of interest. In all the years that I have been doing this, I don't remember a time in which the country's nerve endings were so exposed, and that includes 1968. More people are paying more attention this time, and by the way, not making an early commitment so many of them. We are seeing that tonight in the polls tonight as well. Some are saying I made up my mind in the last week or last 24 hours or when I walked into the booth. That has been consistent throughout the campaign as well.

OLBERMANN: And the other hard numbers, not to toot horns or anything because it has been seen on other networks as well, but the debate from last Tuesday was watched at some points by 9 million people, and then the 10:00 hour was the highest rated television network in all of television. There are a lot more networks than there used to be which indicates that level of interest that you are talking about, sort of quantifies it.

BROKAW: Absolutely. I can say this because I'm on the outside looking in, but your network, MSNBC, had its highest number ever in that dough bait. It was, what, the 20th debate in which Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama appeared? So people are tuned in. They have great concerns about the issues and the campaign will begin to turn more clearly on those issues, I think, in the next week as well.

OLBERMANN: All right. Tom Brokaw, great thanks.

Up next, we will rejoin our panel. We continue to await something to tell you besides It's too early to call or too close to call in Texas. Never too early. MSNBC's DECISION 2008 coverage continues after this.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

OLBERMANN: NBC News has projected Hillary Clinton, the junior senator from New York, as the projected lowered in the State of Ohio in the Democratic primary there. Polls closed in some locations at 7:30 this evening. Others staying open until 9:00. More than half of the vote actually in. A substantial lead for Senator Clinton. It's Hillary Clinton the projected leader in Ohio. So one down and one to go. In terms of deciding this tonight.

MATTHEWS: She had been leading in all the polls. She had a much larger week several weeks ago but she held on and won in a state that has many of the demographics in her favor. A lot of working people. A lot of non collegiate people, what are called white ethnics. I never liked the phrase but it's useful. She's done very well in a state that's very concerned about the economy. Very worried about NAFTA, about trade policy. And ironically rewarded her despite the fact of her role in the administration which enacted NAFTA.

OLBERMANN: There is one caution on this in terms of that margin which we are seeing in the actual hard count of about 15, 16 percent. The possibility of that though it's not likely to change the outcome, 16 percent now. It's not going to change the outcome. The projection is solid. But, of course, Ohio is the home of the provisional ballot. There is going to be some late counting which could increase Senator Clinton's lead for all we know.

MATTHEWS: I think the home of president as well. You know what's interesting? She's won two tonight. That's two of four. I thought going into this if she won at least two, Ohio which she is wrong, Rhode Island which was always dicey because has been shifting away from her. She will be able to go out stiff upper lip no matter what happens in Texas. And have a party tonight. There will be a party tonight complete, as I said, with confetti. The president will be there. Her daughter will be there. They are going to have a victory excitement probably within the next 20 minutes. They are going to go to town on this.

I don't think they are going to wait for Texas. I think they are going to try to deny its importance, claim the complication there. Go for the victory they have in hands.

All right. Let's go take our time here with both Tom Brokaw and Tim Russert who join us again. Tim, are we going to possibly have two victory celebrations tonight if Obama takes Texas? What do we see happening for the full night?


RUSSERT: Well, winning Ohio is a very important and big victory for Hillary Clinton, there is no doubt about it. You heard her earlier tonight, Keith, with Andrea Mitchell saying Ohio is the center piece for any democratic candidate to be successful in the fall. And, therefore, winning that in the primary is an indication that she can do just that. It's a state that is reeling economically and she was able to make that case, convincing the blue collar voters, particularly women as well, white ethnic women over 50 making less than $50,000. She put together her coalition. It held in a very formidable way.

There is no doubt about it capturing Ohio in this state of the race is a very big victory for Hillary Clinton.

MATTHEWS: Let me ask you, Tom, about this tonight. How are we going to score this going to bed tonight if Texas remains murky?

BROKAW: Well, I think if it's very close in Texas, and she clearly now is going to win Ohio, this she will have good reason to claim that she's still in this race, she's going to see it through to the next stop which is Pennsylvania which is the indication we have had all day long. They began to see something in Ohio earlier in the last 24 hours or so because the competence in the Clinton campaign was almost palpable if you talk to anyone there. I do think as they say Texas about things, if it's true, it ain't brag. That in Ohio with this victory, it ain't brag. It's a very important cornerstone for her because as Tim point out it has been in the last several election cycles a critical state. In the last one it was the state. It was Tim and Ohio, Ohio, Ohio. The state is as Tim indicated reeling economically, so much so that when we ask voters who voted in the Democratic primary tonight about what was the most important factor for them, 69 percent said the economy, both health care, and the war in Iraq which had, been on par with those issues in the economy in most other states were down below 20 percent.

MATTHEWS: Let me try this by you, Tim Russert, the Clinton argument. The Clinton argument. New York, New Jersey, Michigan, although that's questionable, California, now Ohio, perhaps Pennsylvania in their lights, can they claim that they have won the main base of the Democratic Party?

RUSSERT: Well, Mark Penn said the only significant state Barack Obama won was Illinois which created a real uproar with some other states. When I use those exact states with the Obama campaign, they will counter, what about Connecticut, what about Missouri, what about Iowa, what about Wisconsin, so the fact is both campaigns are going to lay claim to winning a lot of states. Obama will say they won even more. The importance of this victory tonight for Hillary Clinton is psychological. She can say all right, I didn't gain that many more delegates. And Obama still will be leading in the elected delegate field, but I deserve to continue this debate across the country, and the fund-raising people, I think in the campaign organization will say, you're right Hillary, let's go.

We're going to go out to Andrea Mitchell in a second, but Tim, if momentum moves around as quickly as it has tonight and has been perceived to have moved around in the primary, how finely a split thing is momentum in this, if Hillary Clinton wins Ohio, and sometime later tonight Barack Obama takes Texas, did the momentum change again because he took Texas again later in the night?

RUSSERT: That's a great point. If Obama won 11 states, the Clinton campaign defined success as Ohio and Texas. What's the next success, Pennsylvania April 22nd? You simply ignore Wyoming and Mississippi. We have to be so careful of both sides trying to spin and claim success, Keith. That's why the delegate count is important and I think becomes much more important in 48 hours than we are watching victories tonight.

OLBERMANN: All right, Tim, let's, as we said, go out to the headquarters of the Clinton campaign for the night in the Columbus Athenaeum in Columbus, Ohio. Andrea Mitchell is literally getting into position now and I'm hope can hear us. Andrea, obviously Ohio is Hillary Clinton's. Is momentum's Hillary Clinton's?

MITCHELL: They're going to declare it.

She's on the way to the hall we understand, on her way down here. And then she's planning to fly back to Washington, we are told, Chris, that President Clinton will meet her back in Washington tonight. He is on his way back to the campaign and then he will then be going on to Wyoming. But clearly, they're going to claim victory tonight, even though they are behind in the delegates, they can't catch up in the delegates, they're going to say this gives them the push they need to go on to Pennsylvania.

OLBERMANN: This is MSNBC's coverage of VOTR, Vermont, Ohio, Texas and Rhode Island where Ohio has gone to Hillary Clinton on our NBC News projection after being too close to call since the polls closed at 7:30 Eastern Time. Senator Clinton has been the projected winner in Rhode Island and at this hour Obama has taken Vermont with Texas too close to call.


KEITH OLBERMANN, MSNBC ANCHOR: Resuming with Chris Matthews here in

New York at MSNBC and NBC News world headquarters. We also have Tom Brokaw

continuing with us and again, Andrea Mitchell is at a very noisy Columbus

Athenaeum. All right. So we're expecting a speech from senator Clinton.

We're expecting what else tonight from President Clinton? Is he just going to

stand there? It is so noisy, now, is that correct? It's too noisy to get in

touch with Andrea Mitchell.

It's also too noisy in here. Chris, what else are we expecting from Senator Clinton tonight.

CHRIS MATTHEWS, MSNBC ANCHOR: I think that was a great question you offered, this curly Q occasion of momentum, that somewhere in the night we expect momentum to turn again.

OLBERMANN: Right, if I win at 11:00 and you win at 12:00, do you have momentum.

MATTHEWS: I also go back to the idea, if we only keep score in the last month, and it's 13 to two at the end of tonight and then it's going to be 15 to two at the end of the week, next week. Is that a turn to Clinton for Pennsylvania? Or is it simply a case to be made that may not be strong?

OLBERMANN: Over seven weeks. How is this going to be sustained? How is the Democratic party going to hold itself together?


MATTHEWS: Let me go back to something in our American gut. 2000, it's in our gut that the election where one person got the most votes didn't win the election. So we were told, a lot of people that didn't remember their civics book, there's something called the electorate college. Then when that was still murky, they were told, oh, there's something called the Supreme Court intervention here, like the Schiavo case for presidents.

Now we're told, there's this thing called super delegates. So we not only don't have democracy, we don't even have representative democracy. We have these things called super delegates, who are not elected by anyone, and they can put their foot on the scale and decide who wins after everything we do.

OLBERMANN: Somebody had to approve the Supreme Court justices.

MATTHEWS: They can not suppress our vote. They can ignore it. That's a question the Democrats have to deal with, whether you're a Clinton supporter or a Barack supporter, or you're someone supposedly still independent; can you go to a convention and tell the delegates, many of whom were elected for Obama, and tell them, there's these people that met and they decided that your guy didn't win.

And I just think it's a difficult question for Senator Clinton and for President Clinton to deal with if tonight, if tonight ends up being another draw, if they don't have a clear victory. If they win Texas tonight, they deserve their gust of wind at their back. I'm not sure that's the result yet tonight. Let's wait and see in a couple hours.

OLBERMANN: Let's get what we're expecting, as we know now that Senator Clinton is in the hall in Columbus, where Andrea Mitchell is, again, and back in communications with us, we hope. How are they going to do this, who's going to do what?

ANDREA MITCHELL, MSNBC CORRESPONDENT: Hillary Clinton is going to come

out here and this place will rock. Bill Clinton is, I'm told, on his way back

to Washington to meet her there. I assume we will see some sort of victory

declaration back in Washington tomorrow. She's going to have a big meeting,

which has been planned for the last couple of days, with her staff back in

Washington, Keith and Chris. They have to decide what to do, especially if


it's a split victory.

It is a very tough decision. As you heard Ed Rendell in your interview earlier tonight, Chris, he and other super delegates are going to be saying, it's time for you to back out. But it's such a painful decision to make for a politician who has put her heart and soul in this and who can say, it's practically a tie if she wins tonight in Ohio, and if she's only a couple of percentage points behind on the delegates. I think she's going to be very much pressured as well internally to stay in the race.

MATTHEWS: How about a middle case; suppose she knows she can't win and catch up with the numbers, but she wants to leave this campaign in a stronger position to go into the convention, perhaps after Pennsylvania. She quits then. She knows now she probably will quit April 23rd. If she plans on that, won't she go into the convention in stronger position to dictate a health care platform that she wants, to dictate the vice presidency perhaps.

Does she have a stronger position if she waits this out for one more month or is she hated for doing it?

MITCHELL: It's a very tough call. You and I both know in Pennsylvania - we've both lived and worked there for so many years, before we came to Washington, we know that Pennsylvania, with the help of Ed Rendell, is very much the old kind of state which would be favorable to Hillary Clinton. I think she has a very good case for going on to Pennsylvania.

But the counter-argument, as you point out, is unite the party now, don't waste money. There's a Republican nominee presumptive and, you know, get the party together before John McCain can get some traction against the two Democrats who are flailing each other. It's only going to get nastier.

MATTHEWS: Maybe she can go to Pennsylvania and not bring the kitchen sink with her. That would be nice, and still win. It is possible.

MITCHELL: You know, then you raise the whole question as to whether one of these two very strong, very effective politicians would even consider the other for a ticket, depending on who is at the top of the ticket. It's just very hard to imagine these two people coming together, despite what anyone might say, going back to that Los Angeles debate about it being a dream ticket for the Democrats.

OLBERMANN: Before we hear from Senator Clinton, maybe as soon as 90 seconds, is there, to your knowledge, a game plan in the Clinton campaign for getting the nomination that does not include some kind of element of Pyrrhic victory, that does not include beating up the other guy on the way to that, and then invoking super delegates and convention deals and all the other things that would seem to make Democrats faint at the very thought of it?

MITCHELL: That's the problem. There's no other way. The math just goes against it. And you would have such a - an outrageous - or rather an outrage among the passionate, committed supporters of Barack Obama. Barack Obama has brought so many young people and so many people who have never been involved in the political process into something that has been described accurately as a movement. And to deny him the nomination by a deal of super delegates is not going to rest easy.

Those people will then possibly abandon the party and that could lead to a Democratic defeat. So that would be on the shoulders of whoever was cutting those deals. That would be the argument. You would have potentially a 1968 all over again, where Hubert Humphrey was the nominee but it was a Pyrrhic victory.

OLBERMANN: How - 1968 is one analogy. There are others throughout history where it's been worse. How strident is it? And are the Clinton people - is there an argument inside that campaign saying, you know, we can't run the risk of driving people potentially to some unknown, unnamed third party candidate?


MITCHELL: You can hear that the - There is an argument inside the campaign. You have some of the people around Bill Clinton who are suggesting that she could bow out if it's a split victory. But right now, I've got to tell you, they're all going to celebrate, because they came back from the dead here in Ohio. They had a big, big lead. They blew that lead. He outspent them.

They've come back and they are declaring victory tonight. And you've got the governor, Senator Glenn, who is a great hero here in Ohio, and a vigorous, active political leader. And they're going to now welcome Hillary Clinton here as a victor, and doing it before the Texas results, so that she can then go back to Washington before probably Texas is declared.

MATTHEWS: I think, Andrea, the former president and Chelsea will show up there tonight by surprise to add to the excitement. That's my bet. We'll see what happens.

MITCHELL: You got the best instincts in politics and in journalism, so I wouldn't discount it. But all the reports were that he would not. There's an argument that he would not be an addition. This is her night, not his.

OLBERMANN: Andrea, we're going to stop straining your ears while the roar crests and falls, and speak amongst ourselves for the moment. As we await Senator Clinton coming out, you mentioned former Senator Glenn in present and ready to celebrate. Let's explore this idea of the malleability of momentum. This is - we speak so often in politics some candidate's moment. I never knew it was literal. You only get a moment? You get - per victory, you get a certain 90-minute span maybe?

MATTHEWS: It could be that what we're watching is a running or a gradual progressive look at the Democratic party, which is giving us a losing notion of changing momentum. It could be that Ron Brownstein, who is so brilliant, who was with the "LA Times," now with the "National Journal," he's said for months now that there's two Democratic wings. One is the idealistic wing, the one that is looking for the future, the big picture, with no special interests. They just want a better country, a better place in the world.

They're concerned about energy and things like that, climate change. But no needs up front. Then the rest of the party are people with very basic needs, minimum wage, jobs, health care. They really need this stuff right now. We're going through the country and looking at different patterns of that, different compositions of that.

In Connecticut, there's a lot more college than working desperate people. You go to Ohio, there are a lot more desperate people. What we're doing is moving through time in creating the illusion of different movements and different cadences and different changes of speed. When, in fact, all we're doing is crossing the country according to the schedule that was laid out. That's what we're doing. You see what I'm saying?

OLBERMANN: Of course.

MATTHEWS: It could be, if we went to Texas three months ago, we would have had the same results. We keep calling this, perhaps, in an artificial way. There is a fade of his support, or what is the term, buyer's remorse. I kept reminding good old Lisa tonight, nobody bought anything yet. You're not at the return counter yet. These are new buyers. Had they been purchasers three months ago in Texas, we may have had the same results.

It may be illusory. What we're really looking at is the contours of the Democratic party. Most Democrats didn't have four years of college. Most Democrats are white people. Most Democrats are probably working people. There is a lot of pattern to it and in every state there's different numbers of African-Americans, different numbers of Latinos, different age groups. It just takes time to cross the country. That's an argument to finish the process perhaps.

OLBERMANN: What counts to this point? Is there any grand statistic that actually means something?


MATTHEWS: Yes, Barack's got the most votes and he's got the most delegates.

OLBERMANN: And the other one, about he's never been behind a day in terms of the delegate count since they started awarding delegates?

MATTHEWS: By the normal way we keep score, he's won this game. He's regulation already. By the way we used to keep score.

OLBERMANN: So everything else, including what both of the campaign will be saying tonight about Ohio and however Texas turns out -

MATTHEWS: We've never had a former first lady married to a former president with the amazing clout in the Democratic party that these two people have. They are the Democratic party, almost as much as Ronald Reagan was the Republican party. They are very much alive and very ambitious, and maybe entitled by their likes to this nomination.

OLBERMANN: With the entitlement, does there not come even more responsibility than any other candidate in her position would have to make sure that the Democratic party is undamaged going into the general election, that if anybody were to say, OK, this is going to go on like this for -

MATTHEWS: It's been decades since presidential politics was a team sport.

OLBERMANN: So there's no one under any obligation to make sure that the other -

MATTHEWS: You can pose that. I don't think it means much. In the end, Senator Clinton is going to have to decide whether all her years of effort, going all the way back to the beginning of her marriage, you could argue, all this thinks about some day having a policy influence, some day being able to carry out what she thinks is important for America, some day to reach her own ambition, perhaps - and I'm not sure when it began, I don't know - to be president of the United States.

Why should she walk away when there's still the possibility of being elected president? It's a hard thing to walk away from. If something breaks bad in Pennsylvania, the super delegates go to her, and everybody would say, they have to. If the Rezko case develops into something really big and somehow brings in Senator Obama, somehow, she must be thinking there's a chance there.

OLBERMANN: What happens if that seven weeks, whether it's about Rezko or anything else, manages to do what that one quote that I keep going back to from Toledo yesterday, and the earlier version from Austin over the weekend does? Yes, see, I'm better than Obama and I'm, in the meantime, also reminding you that McCain, in this particular category, is better than either one of us.

At what point do you have to say the only way for me to win now is to lose later or to guarantee that the other guy loses?


MATTHEWS: I've never seen a partisan character employ the pincer with the other party, which is what she's doing.

OLBERMANN: At some point, there would seem to be a backlash to that within the Democratic party.

MATTHEWS: You may be one person who has latched onto that and noticed the real aggressiveness of that move, to say that John and I are qualified, this guy isn't. He's the odd one out. That is strong politics and it's also defeating, if you're going to have him as your candidate.

OLBERMANN: Whether he's the candidate or she's the candidate, it's defeat. That's my point to you. At what point do you say wait a minute, I just made this literally years of service. Neither of them beats John McCain.

MATTHEWS: Lyndon Johnson at the Democratic convention in Los Angeles in 1960 had his guy, John Connally, go out there and say that John Kennedy suffered from Addison's Disease, a life threatening disease. He was only able to stay alive with steroid use on a regular basis.

OLBERMANN: Which he was.

MATTHEWS: Which is all true. He became secretary of the Navy and Lyndon Johnson became vice president. So politics continues.

OLBERMANN: It continues with unimaginable consequences where John Connally also wound up. You see the confetti that -

MATTHEWS: I promised it.

(CROSS TALK)

MATTHEWS: If I'm right, the president will show up at some moment here. I may be wrong, but I think he'll show up, and Chelsea too.

OLBERMANN: You're right on Chelsea. There she is. So you're one for two. You're two for three.


MATTHEWS: Maybe because she split tonight, Bill doesn't get the -

OLBERMANN: We don't know if she split tonight.

MATTHEWS: Maybe if she doesn't split, he won't get the night. There's a great man behind her, John Glenn. What a great man he is.

OLBERMANN: In so many different respects. Tim Russert is back with us as we wait for the roaring to stop and the speaking to begin. Is there a way to judge what this means now, or does it have to be accepted only in the context of whatever happens in Texas?

TIM RUSSERT, "MEET THE PRESS": No, Keith, I think it's clear by this response and - from the Clinton campaign that they are going to go on. If Texas is too close to call or there's a popular vote versus a delegate count, everything I'm hearing is that the message is resonating; we think we're delineating the differences; we think people have to hear this. More people have to participate. Something may happen. Don't get your head in the weeds on this delegate count.

There are a lot more states at play. Let's let this debate continue and on and on. I think that's what we're seeing tonight with the magnitude of this celebration.

OLBERMANN: Senator Clinton still waiting for the cheers to die down and now about to address the crowd in Columbus and they're going to go up again. Trying to judge this is like trying to judge the momentum for tonight.

We have to address this at some point. Now that we're talking about the momentum of the Clinton campaign, is this not the same campaign that for the last 11 primaries told us that momentum didn't matter? It was the final score that mattered?

RUSSERT: Yes, and the same campaign that said states don't nominate candidates, delegates do. But every opportunity that has presented itself to these campaigns, they're going to grab onto and take advantage of and try to spin. Tonight will be, we won Ohio and we deserve some credit for that and some attention for that.

I do think in 48 hours, we'll go back looking at delegate totals. But tonight, the euphoria of a victory is center stage.

OLBERMANN: We'll let the senator enjoy it.

SEN. HILLARY CLINTON (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: For everyone here in Ohio and across America, who's ever been counted out but refused to be knocked out and -


for everyone who has stumbled but stood right back up, and for everyone -

who works hard and never gives up, this one is for you. You know what they say: As Ohio goes, so goes the nation.

Well, this nation's coming back, and so is this campaign. The people

of Ohio have said it loudly and clearly. We're going on, we're going strong,

and we're going all the way. You know, they call Ohio a bellwether state.

It's a battleground state. It's a state that knows how to pick a president.

And no candidate in recent history, Democrat or Republican, has won the White House without winning the Ohio primary.

AUDIENCE: Yes, she will! Yes, she will! Yes, she will! Yes, she will! Yes, she will! Yes, she will! Yes, she will! Yes, she will! Yes, she will! Yes, she will! Yes, she will! Yes, she will!

CLINTON: You all know that, if we want a Democratic president, we need a Democratic nominee who can win the battleground states, just like Ohio.

And that is what we've done. We've won Florida, Nevada, New Mexico, Arizona, Michigan, New Hampshire, Arkansas, California, New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Oklahoma and Tennessee.

And today we won Rhode Island. And thanks to all my friends and supporters there. This is a great night. But we all know that these are challenging times. We have two wars abroad; we have a recession looming here at home.

Voters faced a critical question: Who is tested and ready to be commander-in-chief on day one? And who knows how to turn our economy around? Because we sure do need it. Ohio has written a new chapter in the history of this campaign, and we're just getting started.


More and more people have joined this campaign, and millions of Americans haven't spoken yet. In states like Pennsylvania and so many others, people are watching this historic campaign, and they want their turn to help make history.

They want their voices to count, and they should. They should be heard. So, please, join us in this campaign. Go to www.HillaryClinton.com [link].

This is your campaign and your moment, and I need your support. For more than a year, I've been listening to the voices of people across our country, you know, the single mom who told me she works two jobs, neither provides health care for her kids. She just can't work any harder.

The little girl who asked how I'd help people without homes? It turns out her family was about to lose their own.

The young man in a Marine Corps shirt who said he waited months for medical care, he said to me, "Take care of my buddies. A lot of them are still over there. And then will you please help take care of me?"

Americans don't need more promises. They've heard plenty of speeches.

They deserve solutions, and they deserve them now.

America needs a president who's ready to lead, ready to stand up for what's right even when it's hard. And after seven long years of George W. Bush -

we sure are ready for a president who will be a fighter, a doer, and a champion for the American people again. Oh, I think we're ready for health care, not just for some people or most people, but for every American.

I think we're ready for an economy that works for everyone, not just

those at the top, but every single hard-working American who deserves a shot at

the American dream. I think we're ready to declare energy independence and


create millions of green-collar jobs.

We're ready to reach out to our allies and confront our shared challenges. We're ready to end the war in Iraq and win the war in Afghanistan.

And we're past ready to serve our veterans with the same devotion that they served us. You know, protecting America is the first and most urgent duty of the president. When there's a crisis and that phone rings at 3 a.m. in the White House, there's no time for speeches or on-the-job training. You have to be ready to make a decision. I congratulate Senator McCain on winning his party's nomination, and I look forward to a spirited and substantive debate with him.

You know -

AUDIENCE: Yes, she will! Yes, she will! Yes, she will! Yes, she will! Yes, she will! Yes, she will! Yes, she will! Yes, she will!

CLINTON: You know, I want to thank the wonderful people of Ohio for your support and your confidence in me. I especially want to thank Governor Ted Strickland and his wonderful wife, Frances.

You know, Governor and Mrs. Strickland are working so hard on behalf of Ohio, and they deserve a president who will work hard with them to give Ohio the future that you deserve. I want to thank Senator John Glenn and his wonderful wife, Annie. I want to thank -

Lieutenant Governor Lee Fisher and his wife, Peggy.

And I especially want to thank Congresswoman Stephanie Tubbs Jones.

She does an extraordinary job for her constituents. And she has been a

champion on behalf of the people of Ohio and America. And I look forward to

working with her to bring more opportunity to the people that she loves and


represents so well.

I want to thank my extraordinary staff, volunteers, and supporters here in Ohio and across America.

And I especially want to thank the two most important people in my life, Bill and Chelsea. And, of course, to my mother, who I know is watching, thanks very much, Mom, for everything. And, finally, to Senator Obama, who has brought so much to this race, I look forward to continuing our dialogue in the weeks ahead on the issues that matter most to our country.

I want to end by sharing with you a message that I got late last month from someone who didn't have much money to spare, but sent me $10 for my campaign and sent an e-mail in which she wrote, "My two daughters are two and four. And we chant and cheer for you at every speech we see. I want them to know anything is possible."

Tonight, I say to them: Keep on watching. Together, we're going to make history. To those little girls, I say: This is America. And we do believe you can be anything you want to be. And we want our sons and our daughters to dream big.

I have big dreams for America's future. The question is not whether we can fulfill those dreams; it's whether we will. And here's our answer: Yes, we will.

We will do what it takes, and we will, once again, make the kind of progress that America deserves. We're going to protect our country and preserve our Constitution. We're going to lead with our values.

We will reach out to those on the margins and in the shadows, because that's what we do in America. We break barriers; we open doors; we make sure every voice is heard.

Together, we will turn promises into action, words into solutions, and hope into reality.

(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)

It will take - it will take leadership and hard work, but we've never been short on either. So I hope all of you will join, join with the Ohioans whose voices and votes have been heard today. Together, we will seize this moment, lift this nation, and heal and lead this world.

Thank you all and God bless you!


(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)

OLBERMANN: Hillary Clinton speaking for less than 15 minutes. No long-winded speech there. Many of the themes that we have been talking about throughout the evening, what would be anticipated in terms of selling this idea that this victory in Ohio means momentum and changes the nature of what had preceded it, which was a streak that ended at 12 in a row of caucuses and primary victories for Senator Barack Obama.

Texas is still very much in play. They're separated by about 2 percent and it's too early to call that one. Yes, you did hear it, if you heard the whole speech, she yelled out the names of the sequence of states that the campaign was going to continue onto, and somewhere, a series of Howard Dean supporters fell over in shock when that happened. I was walking in the hallways at that time and stopped dead in my tracks.

MATTHEWS: We've begun a new chapter in the campaign. She said tonight we're just getting started and then became a tribune for those states who have yet to hold their contests, saying they want their turn, they should be heard. She has formed a compact with the states that haven't had their elections yet.

She will fight for them to be heard.

That was serious business tonight. She basically put herself almost in a position of having burnt the ships - or rather having launched the ships for further contests. It's going to be hard to walk back from that now. It looks like she's going to Pennsylvania and that means that if she is going to do the polka, so does Barack Obama.

OLBERMANN: Tom Brokaw is with us once again. And that means we've just seen the groundhog equivalent - the political equivalent of the groundhog, we have seven more weeks of the primary season.

(LAUGHTER)

TOM BROKAW, FORMER NBC ANCHOR: I want to play the part of Bill Murray, if I can. That's a role I'd like. Well, in the victory for John McCain tonight, who is the Republican nominee for president of the United States, and in Hillary Clinton's appearance here tonight, and her victory in Ohio, we've seen two political warriors at their best. They both have been counted out in the course of this campaign on a number of occasions. This night is not yet over. It's just one of the two major states.

Her husband said in Beaumont, Texas, that she had to win both to remain viable. But with her speech here tonight, it's clear that she believes that she can go on from here and these kinds of speeches really do have an effect on the electorate and these campaigns, as you well know. People begin to look at her in a slightly different fashion.

A very, very enthusiastic Obama supporter said to me tonight, my God, you've got to hand it to her, in an e-mail. And I think probably a lot of people will feel that way about Hillary Clinton who went into Ohio, which is an important state, and she won not by a small margin, but by a significant margin in a state that has been pivotal in the past several election cycles and with the economy in the forefront of what appears to be the autumn agenda. Ohio is almost a test case for the Democrats. So this is a very important victory for her tonight.

OLBERMANN: Let's bring back - as Tom stays with us, let's return to Tim Russert and Brian Williams.


And, Tim, we just talked about how long you get, how long momentum stands in this process. Now after that speech, and that excitement and that genuine enthusiasm, and all credit due to Hillary Clinton for her victory in Ohio after nearly seeing the whole thing go out the window and come back and certainly win by at least double digits, maybe moderate to high double digits, Barack Obama is going to speak 10 minutes from now.

TIM RUSSERT, NBC WASHINGTON BUREAU CHIEF: Yes. There's no turning back for Hillary Clinton. If in fact she wins Texas, it only will spur her on more. If she loses it barely, she'll simply say it was a virtual tie. But once you say, I've gotten off the map for all those little people and lay out, as Chris said, all of the states in the future, Keith, she's in this.

And you know, I don't think it's just for seven weeks. I think what you'll hear from Barack Obama is, he's not going to let Pennsylvania be the next goal post. He is going to say, we're going all the way to the convention. And I think we will see both these candidates into Pennsylvania and far beyond.

My question will be, what are they going to do now about Florida and Michigan? They have to do something because those states are out there. They have been disqualified in effect by the Democratic National Committee. And they're going to need some determination from those states, I think, in order to determine the nominee of this party.

If Barack Obama is ahead with elected delegates, and you don't count Florida and Michigan, are there going to be do-overs and will that be the game in June?

MATTHEWS: Will Senator Clinton be able to say that if there's no solution agreed upon for either Michigan or Florida, that she doesn't have to have the total number of elected delegates to claim the right to use the superdelegates at that point?

RUSSERT: I think that, Chris, because of the party rules and because of the agreement of the candidates, those delegates will not count towards the nomination.

MATTHEWS: Right.

RUSSERT: But they're going to need to do something else. Governor Crist, I think, being somewhat mischievous and Republican, said he would be willing to pay for it. But if you schedule these primaries in June after Puerto Rico, you could have a big shootout. Michigan and Florida, and whoever wins those could take the lead in pledged delegates, or what happens if they're split 52-48 and Obama still has a pledged delegate lead, even though Clinton wins the popular vote? It is remarkable.

One other thing on Bill Clinton's comments, I've been going through this quote very carefully, Keith. "If she wins Texas and Ohio, I think she'll be the nominee. If you don't deliver for her, I don't think she can be." He never said she wouldn't go on. He said, I don't think she would be the nominee.

MATTHEWS: And that proves again the ability of Bill Clinton to always allow for an escape hatch, whatever he says.

RUSSERT: I'm just reading the words very carefully.


MATTHEWS: I know, but there's always one applied, there's always one provided.

RUSSERT: And you know, we'll know Texas shortly. If she wins Texas, it's an enormous night for her. If she doesn't, I think the Obama people will say, not so fast, let's look hard at this delegate count. And again, I keep restating this, by the end of this week, we'll be talking heavily about the delegate count once again.

OLBERMANN: And we go to San Antonio and see that that 10-minute window that we were expecting between Senator Clinton and Senator Obama may be less than 10 minutes. Momentum, changes, and it changes shape and there is more than one set of momentums - momenta? Per candidate. Brian Williams joins us again.

This is "Through the Looking Glass" stuff sometimes here. I mean, we have seen each of these candidates not counted out, and certainly have the unstoppable momentum and the surprise victories in places where they seem to be losing and to decry the very thing they endorsed the week before in terms of what counts, delegates or momentum. And here it changes yet again and may yet change before this night is done - Brian.

BRIAN WILLIAMS, NBC ANCHOR: Keith, it's unbelievable. And to take a theme from what Tom Brokaw started, the American people, at least the voters in these early Democratic primary states have proven again, along with a fair number of Republican governors in resuscitating John McCain's campaign, they have a funny way of deciding for themselves the direction of this, as Michelle makes her way off stage and the senator from Illinois gets ready to speak.

SEN. BARACK OBAMA (D-IL), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: How's it going, Texas!

(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)

OBAMA: Thank you!

(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)

OBAMA: Thank you, Texas! Thank you. Thank you, San Antonio.

(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)

OBAMA: Thank you!


Well, we are in the middle of a very close race right now in Texas. We may not even know the final results until morning. We do know that Senator Clinton has won Rhode Island and while there are a lot of votes to be counted in Ohio, it looks like she won there too.

So I want to congratulate Senator Clinton for running a hard-fought race in both Ohio and Rhode Island.

(APPLAUSE)

OBAMA: We also know that we've won the state of Vermont, so we want to

say thank you...

(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)

OBAMA:... to the people of Vermont. And we know this, no matter what happens tonight, we have nearly the same delegate lead as we did this morning, and we are on our way to winning this nomination.

(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)

OBAMA: Si se puede.

CROWD: Si se puede! Si se puede! Si se puede! Si se puede!

OBAMA: You know, decades ago, as a community organizer, I learned that the real work of democracy begins far from the closed doors and marbled halls of Washington. It begins on street corners and front porches, in living rooms and meeting halls with ordinary Americans who see the world as it is and realize that we have within our power to remake the world as it should be.

(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)


OBAMA: It is - it's with that hope that we began this journey. The hope that if we could go block by block, city by city, state by state, and build a movement that spanned race and region, party and gender, if we could give young people a reason to vote, and the young at heart a reason to believe again, if we could inspire a nation to come together, then we could turn the page on the politics that have shut us out, let us down and told us to settle. We could write a new chapter in the American story.

We were told this wasn't possible. We were told the climb was too steep. We were told our country was too cynical, that we were just being naive. That we couldn't really change the world as it is.

But then a few people in Iowa stood up and said, yes, we can.

(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)

OBAMA: And then a few more of you stood up from the hills of New

Hampshire to the coast of South Carolina, and then a few million of you stood

up from Savannah to Seattle, from Boise to Baton Rouge. And tonight, because

of you, because of a movement you've built that stretches from Vermont's Green

Mountains to the streets of San Antonio...

(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)

OBAMA:... we can stand up, we can stand up with confidence and clarity to say that we are turning the page and we are ready to write the next great chapter in America's story.

(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)


OBAMA: Now in the weeks to come, we will begin a great debate about the future of this country with a man who has served it bravely and loves it dearly. And tonight I called John McCain and congratulated him on winning the Republican nomination.

But in this election, we will offer two very different visions of the America we see in the 21st Century. Because John McCain may claim a long history of straight talk and independent thinking, and I respect that. But in this campaign, he has fallen in line behind the very same policies that have ill-served America.

He has seen where George Bush has taken our country and he promises to keep us on the very same course.

(BOOING)

OBAMA: It's the same course that threatens a century of war in Iraq, a third and fourth and fifth tour of duty for brave troops who have done all we've asked of them, even while we've asked little and expect nothing from the Iraqi government whose job it is to put their country back together.

Of course, a course where we spend billions of dollars a week that could be used to rebuild our roads, and our schools, to care for our veterans and send our children to college.

(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)

OBAMA: It's the same course that continues to divide and isolate America from the world by substituting bluster and bullying for direct diplomacy, by ignoring our allies and refusing to talk to our enemies. Even though presidents from Kennedy to Reagan have done just that, because strong countries and strong leaders aren't afraid to tell hard truths to petty dictators.

(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)

OBAMA: And it's the same course that offers the same tired answers to workers without health care and families without homes, to students in debt and children who go to bed hungry in the richest nation on earth.

Four more years of tax breaks for the biggest corporations and the wealthiest few who don't need them and aren't even asking for them, it's a course that further divides Wall Street from main street, where struggling families are told to pull themselves up by their boot straps because there's nothing government can do or should do.

And so we should give more to those with the most and let the chips fall where they may. Well, we are here to say tonight that is not the America we believe in. And this is not the future we want. We want a new course for this country. We want new leadership in Washington. We want change in America.


(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)

OBAMA: And John McCain and Hillary Clinton have echoed each other, dismissing this call for change as eloquent but empty. Speeches, not solutions. And yet they know, or they should know, that it's a call that did not begin with my words. It began with words that were spoken on the floors of factories in Ohio, and across the deep plains of Texas.

Words that came from classrooms in South Carolina and living rooms in the state of Iowa, from first-time voters and life-long cynics, from Democrats and independents and Republicans alike.

(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)

OBAMA: John McCain and Hillary Clinton should know that there's nothing empty about the call for affordable health care that came from the young student who told me she gets three hours of sleep a night because she works the night shift after a full day of college and still can't pay her sister's medical bills.

There's nothing empty about the call for help that comes from the mother in San Antonio who saw her mortgage double in two weeks and didn't know where her 2-year-olds would sleep at night when they were on the brink of being kicked out of their home.

There's nothing empty about the call for change who came from the elderly woman who wants it so badly that she sent me an envelope with a money order for $3.01 and a simple verse of scripture tucked inside. These Americans know that government can't solve all of our problems and they don't expect it to.

Americans know that we have to work harder and study more to compete in a global economy. Americans know that we need to take responsibility for ourselves and our children. And we need to spend more time with them and teach them well and put a book in their hands instead of a video game once in a while. We know this.

(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)

OBAMA: But we also believe that there is a larger responsibility that we have to one another as Americans. We believe that we rise or fall as one nation, as one people. That we are our brother's keeper. That we are our sister's keeper. We believe that a child born tonight should have the same chances, whether she arrives in the barrios of San Antonio or the suburbs of St. Louis, on the streets of Chicago or the hills of Appalachia.

We believe that when she goes to school for the first time, it should be in a place where the rats don't outnumber the computers. That when she applies to college, cost should be no barrier to a degree that will allow her to compete with children in India or children in China for the jobs of the 21st Century.

(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)


OBAMA: We further believe that those jobs should provide wages that can raise her family, health care for when she gets sick, a pension for when she retires. We believe that when she tucks her own children into bed, she should feel safe knowing that they are protected from the threats we face by the bravest, best-equipped military in the world, led by a commander-in-chief who has the judgment to know when to send them into battle and which battlefields to fight on.

(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)

OBAMA: And if that child should ever get the chance to travel the world, and someone should ask her where is she from, we believe that she should always be able to hold her head high with pride in her voice when she answers, I am an American.

(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)

OBAMA: That is the course we seek. That is the change we are calling for. You can call it many things, but you can't call it empty. If I am the nominee of this party, I will not allow us to be distracted by the same politics that seek to divide us with false charges and meaningless labels. In this campaign, we will not stand for the politics that uses religion as a wedge and patriotism as a bludgeon.

(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)

OBAMA: San Antonio, I owe what I am to this country, this country that I love. And I will never forget it. Where else could a young man who grew up herding goats in Kenya get the chance to fulfill his dream of a college education? Where else could he marry a white girl from Kansas whose parents survived war and a Great Depression to find opportunity out West?

Where else could they have a child who would one day have the chance to run to the highest office in the greatest nation the world has ever known?

(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)

OBAMA: Where else but in the United States of America?

(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)

OBAMA: It is now my hope and our task to set this country on a course that will keep this promise alive in the 21st Century. And the eyes of the world are watching to see if we can.


(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)

OBAMA: You know, there's a young man on my campaigns whose grandfather lives in Uganda. He's 81 years old. He has never experienced true democracy in his lifetime. During the reign of Idi Amin, he was literally hunted and the only reason that he escaped was thanks to the kindness of others and a few good-sized trucks.

And on the night of the Iowa Caucuses, that 81-year-old man stayed up until 5:00 in the morning huddled by his television waiting for the results of an election on the other side of the world.

The world is watching what we do here. The world is paying attention to how we conduct ourselves, what we say, how we treat one another. What will they see? What will we tell them? What will we show them?

Can we come together across party and region, race and religion to restore prosperity and opportunity as the birthright of every American? Can we lead the community of nations in taking on the common threats of the 21st Century, terrorism and climate change, genocide and disease?

Can we send a message to all of those weary travelers beyond our shores who long to be free from fear and want? That the United States of America is and always will be the last, best hope on earth. We say we hope, we believe. Yes, we can.

(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)

OBAMA: Thank you, San Antonio, God bless you! God bless America. I appreciate it.

(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)

OLBERMANN: Strategically...

OBAMA: Thank you!

OLBERMANN: Forgive me, Senator Obama. Strategically a different kind of speech than the one obviously that Hillary Clinton gave and a different kind of environment. Senator Obama speaking outdoors in San Antonio at the Municipal Auditorium after having taken a loss in Ohio and perhaps one in Texas.


We don't know. Texas is still at this late hour - at least in the East, too close to call. There was less about Hillary Clinton in that speech than Hillary Clinton said about him in her speech. There was more about McCain. There was less about the momentum or where the race stands.

Was there a sense to you, Chris, that there was - that Senator Obama was to a certain ignoring Senator Clinton or at least downplaying?

MATTHEWS: Well, it was an appropriate speech for someone who is ahead in delegates and isn't going to be caught. I think that is - I thought it was fascinating for the preview it gave us of a Pennsylvania campaign.

I quote the former governor of Pennsylvania as saying that Pennsylvania is a John Wayne state, not a Jane Fonda state. I didn't hear any Jane Fonda there. I heard a lot of John Wayne of a different kind.

"I am an American," a line that a lot of people are afraid to say around the world today because we are so vilified because of our position in the Middle East. It's a fact. It's a claim we all want to make but it is not a popular claim to make in the world today. And he says, I want to make it a popular claim again.

He said there are life-long cynics who have joined my campaign. He talked about the judgment to send our people - our young men and women onto the battlefields that would be good to fight on, making clear that he did not believe Iraq was one of those.

I thought it was a powerful speech. This argument that his words don't matter, these are policy statements as to the kind of president he would like to be. To most Americans, the issue of Iraq sits out there. It may not always be on the front shelf, but it is there.

The war is known by every American and unpopular with most Americans. And they know it's there, and the only reason I think they don't say it's the most important thing bothering them right now is they're scared to death somebody is going to turn off the heat and kick them out of their house. Those are more urgent concerns for most people.

But it's not that the war doesn't sit there as a major policy dispute. Senator Clinton does not bring up Iraq because she doesn't want to, because it's not going to help her even in Pennsylvania.

But I thought the tone he caught there on patriotism was very powerful. He must insist on that in Pennsylvania. He also thought to poach into her territory. Everyone knows that Senator Clinton has been very effective on the stump with people with needs, people who depend on minimum wage jobs, who need health care and don't have it, who have childcare challenges they just can't meet.

And here he was doing the same thing. He was talking about people with needs tonight. I thought he was trying to say, look, I can play that as well. I can get the people's urgent needs as well as their more big-picture needs.

OLBERMANN: Very, very thorough analysis from Chris Matthews. Tom, what can you add to that?


BROKAW: Well, what I can add to that is that we begin to see in the outlines of both Senator Clinton and Senator Obama tonight what they hope will be their campaign against Senator McCain come the fall, because they now know who the Republican nominee is going to be.

Chris is right, he did emphasize more Iraq than he did economic issues. My own belief is that people are waiting to hear more from Senator Obama in these speeches about what he does have in mind for the country in terms of how he wants to resolve some of the outstanding domestic issues that do exist out there.

He continues to be the most eloquent speaker of all of these candidates and I know that, you know, in their moments of truth that both Senator McCain and Senator Clinton would probably acknowledge that. But now it moves to a new stage and it's going to become in the next - the course of the next seven weeks in the Democratic Party, a fight that my guess is, Chris, will begin to take shape along very strong lines that are formed around the issues like what we're going to do about the economy, what we're going to do about health care, what we're going to do about the energy crisis in this country, and who picks up that phone at 3:00 in the morning.

We'll be hearing more about that. Because there's some indication that that may have worked for Senator Clinton here tonight.

MATTHEWS: And, Tom, it's so - well, you know Pennsylvania well as I do. And it's a state where young people in many cases grow up and leave. It's a state where they look to New York - the people in Scranton look to New York, the people in Philadelphia may look outside there as well, maybe they'll stay in the suburbs.

But there is a sense of a longing, a sense that the state needs to get modern, it needs to catch up with the rest of the world. Its steel industry, of course, all of these endangered industries, there's so many places where you see rusted equipment. People do want to compete in the modern economic world and they know how tough it is going to be.

So Senator Clinton will appeal to their needs and their maintenance requirements, Social Security, Medicare, just meeting current needs. I think Obama has got to say, I will meet those needs and I will meet her and add to her. I will give you the future as well as a present.

BROKAW: You know that - better than I do, Chris, that it's really two states. You have the western part of Pennsylvania with Pittsburgh and the old industrial power of that part of Pennsylvania, Allegheny County. And then you have Philadelphia and a more sophisticated eastern side of the state with this great financial interest stuck as it is between New York and Washington, D.C., but with its long, very strong tradition as the birthplace of American democracy, a great cultural center down there.

So it's a difficult state to campaign in because you kind of go through some head-snapping transitions as you move from east to west across that state. When - I was a little surprised to hear you say that it's a state where people grow up and then leave. I talked to some of your friends, they said, he didn't grow up, but he did leave.

(LAUGHTER)

MATTHEWS: Oh, Tom, let me tell you one more cultural aspect, Keith, and let you get in here. You know, I was a kid in high school and I drove - we went out on a religious retreat to Redding, Pennsylvania. And you know the old Carville line about Pennsylvania is Pittsburgh and Philadelphia separated by Alabama. Well, we drove out to Redding, Pennsylvania, which is it's not like Utah, it's not that far away.

And I realized that in the juke boxes in the diners in Redding they what we called in those days country western music. And I realized I was in a different place. So there is a difference between that eastern part of the state - the southeastern part, which is so much almost - people go to the shore, they don't go to Pittsburgh.


CHRIS MATTHEWS, MSNBC ANCHOR: And Howard will get into this later. But it is a state that has Allentown looking to Philly, Scranton looking to New York, Pittsburgh looking to the Midwest, Erie looking to the Midwest. I guess the only part of the state that looks inward is Harrisburg and Altoona. The rest are looking outward.

So it is an interesting state to try to compete in. Six media markets with all the money that it takes to win that state.

KEITH OLBERMANN, MSNBC ANCHOR: And Johnstown looking over its shoulder for very inclimate weather. This is MSNBC's continuing coverage of the - it's not Super Tuesday. It's Super Duper Plus Tuesday. Texas still undecided. Senator Clinton won Ohio. That's our projection. Senator Obama the victor in Vermont. Senator Clinton the victor in Rhode Island.

Senator McCain has wrapped up the Republican nominations, statistically at least. Obviously, it will be formally adorned on him at the convention itself in St. Paul during the summer. And we're still waiting on Texas. We've heard Senator Obama speak. We've heard Senator Clinton speak and we're continuing here with our panel.

I'm joined by Chris Matthews. Tom Brokaw continues with us, and Brian Williams is back - will be back with us momentarily. There were references to momentum in the Clinton speech and to where things stood between them in terms of ball game, in terms of horse race. There was less of that, although Obama one telling line, which was, no matter what happens in Texas, we will have nearly the same delegate lead we had this morning. So we have a different prioritization of process.

MATTHEWS: That was the most subtle concession speech I have ever heard. He said we'll have nearly as many delegates.

OLBERMANN: I'm conceding but I'm still ahead.

MATTHEWS: That was very subtle. He was admitting it wasn't a great night. I think he did that right up front, fairly so.

OLBERMANN: Brian, again, we talk about things changing, and I now have something to quote. Let me just read something for you: This election will come down to delegates. Again and again, this race has shown it is voters and delegates who matter, not the pundits or the perceived momentum.

That was said by Mark Penn of the Clinton campaign way back in February 13th of 2008. I don't know where you were or what you might recall of that day, so many, many eons ago. That's how fast it moves.

BRIAN WILLIAMS, NBC NEWS ANCHOR: I will check my elaborate system of bound personal logs, Keith, and get back to you on that. I have a counter-quote before I get to my central point. The Associated Press lead tonight, as my friend Keith Olbermann has want to say, having borrowed it from me years ago, Hillary Clinton finally had a confetti night. That is the lead sentence as the AP went out for those late closing local newspapers tomorrow morning.

I want to make some brief points about media. It will be said that negative ads helped Clinton and hurt Obama in Ohio. More than that, it will be said that the Obama counter ad to this now - the famous 3:00 a.m. phone call looked so much like the original that it was, in a way, indistinguishable and that the rebuttal part of it was perhaps lost in the similar media.


And I think, you know, those people who do nothing else but write and think and talk about media will start saying this tonight and tomorrow morning. I think "Saturday Night Live" will come up as a factor, large or small. Obama actually mentioned Tina Faye on his campaign plane today. She gave that comedic, but also perhaps full throated endorsement of Hillary two weeks ago, the first show back after the strike, after a 12-week period of darkness.

And then Jim Downey (ph), the famous veteran sketch writer, delivered the debate parody this past week and Senator Clinton, who had been invited on before, by the way, and had turned down previously this season a "Saturday Night Live" appearance, accepted and came on when she needed the bump this past week for Ohio. So just throwing it out there like red meat.

MATTHEWS: Dare we repeat what Tina Faye said was the new black?

OLBERMANN: Another word that begins with the same letter as black does. Especially you, distance yourself as far as you can from that.

MATTHEWS: I thought it was interesting that Tina Faye and Amy Poehler did offer something of a help to her.

OLBERMANN: Additionally, for whatever this was worth, as you pointed out, the non -"HARDBALL" television venues, and I use a small H "HARDBALL," to be on "Saturday Night Live" and to participate.

MATTHEWS: There's Tim.

OLBERMANN: You can have a conversation with him about how that feels. But the softer environment where there is publicity, national exposure and you're a human being who can take a joke. The oldest thing, and Brian, this I'm sure this appeals to you and rang in your memory as well, the 1976 campaign, where Jimmy Carter was beating up President Ford by 33 points and lots of things happened to change that. But he got to within two at the actual election.

Among the other things that Ford did was kind of embraced Chevy Chase's humiliation of him every week, and eventually even sent his own press secretary on to host "Saturday Night Live" and to then appear by film himself on it.

WILLIAMS: You're right, Ron Neson (ph) did host the show. And let's go back a little bit further. Remember what it did for Dick Nixon to soften his appearance by doing Sock it To Me on Roland and Martin's "Laugh In."

OLBERMANN: Well, that's when the cameo was enough. You didn't have to participate in the full switch, and nobody did an impersonation necessarily of then candidate Nixon. Let's focus this away from the naval gazing of developments around the NBC Universal family and turn to our moderator of "Meet The Press," Tim Russert, to ask him how his show is going.

MATTHEWS: I think it all balances out myself, all these endorsements.


TIM RUSSERT, "MEET THE PRESS": All right, Keith, Chris. You keep saying seven weeks. Now I am imploring you, you have to start saying the next three months. This is going to go on until Puerto Rico June 7th. Remember back in February, Bloomberg News was sent this forecast of caucuses and primaries inadvertently by the Obama campaign.

It's uncanning with its accuracy. They predicted the ten victories in a row. The only one they missed was Maine. They thought Clinton would win Maine, which gave them 11 victories in a row. For tonight, this document prepared by the Obama campaign said they would lose Ohio 53-46, Rhode Island 57-42, and Texas 51-47.

They said they would win Vermont, which they did, 55-44. They say they'll win Wyoming on Saturday, Mississippi on Tuesday. They'll lose Pennsylvania 52-47. Win Guam, Indiana, North Carolina. Lose West Virginia, Kentucky. Win Oregon, Montana, South Dakota, lose Puerto Rico and they will be ahead in elected delegates.

That is the next three months all laid out. If they're as accurate as they have been for the last 15 primaries, this is a pretty good guide sheet.

OLBERMANN: That also concludes our coverage for the entire primary season right now. You're not supposed to read this script in advance.

RUSSERT: My point is, we are going to be here for three more months. Then we have to schedule Michigan and Florida as the tie breakers. Even, however, if one of those candidates wins 55-45, Obama would still probably have a lead with elected delegates. But what it does for the Clinton campaign, based on tonight's victories, they will say keep the race going. Keep the debate alive. And let's just see what happens over the next 90 days.

MATTHEWS: The only problem in that scenario, Tim, and it's probably good for this place for politics, is that these two Democrats are getting rough. And Senator Clinton, I guess we can all calibrate this in different ways, but she was a bit slow in responding to the question about the religion of her opponent, a bit slow in nailing it down, saying of course he's what he is, a Christian. No more questions to that affect. In fact, I don't think we should be bringing that up in the campaign. She didn't give that answer.

Questioning his trust factor with this 3:00 in the morning thing, which gets to trust. Who do you trust at 3:00 in the morning is a strong question to ask. This isn't an argument over full funding for Title 20 or the various kinds of health care plans, this is about who do you trust when the times are tricky in the middle of the night.

I do think, don't you, Tim, this could get very rough in Pennsylvania, if they bring that kitchen sink with them, the Clinton campaign.

RUSSERT: I think it is going to be very rough. It has been this last week and there's no indication it is in any way going to decline in its ferocity. But the Obama people believe that their elected delegate lead is something they cannot have taken away from them. And if you wind up, when all these next three months are finished, and he has more elected delegates, and she says, however, I won the big states that are necessary for a general election victory, what do you do?

MATTHEWS: Let's ask. We've got David Axelrod. He's the stop strategist with the Obama campaign. David, Tim has this bootleg copy of your delegate outlook, which apparently has held true through tonight. As much as we know, it looks to be on spot or spot-on, as the Brits say, and apparently it calls for you to win in Wyoming this Saturday, win in Mississippi next Tuesday, take a bit of a loss in Pennsylvania, and onward and upward.

Are you still confident that you're going to end up at the end of this process after Puerto Rico substantially ahead?


DAVID AXELROD, OBAMA CAMPAIGN CHIEF STRATEGIST: There's no question about it, Chris. I think that, at the end of tonight, there's not going to be any material difference in our lead. A couple of weeks ago, you may remember, Mark Penn told reporters that they were going to wipe out our delegate lead in Texas and Ohio. I don't think that they put a dent in our lead when this all nets out tonight. And now there are 370 fewer delegates to be chosen.

I feel very good about where we are. I think the math is very, very clear and that Senator Obama, having won 28 contests to their 13, having won a majority of the popular vote, having won 160 or so more delegates to date, and having put together a huge coalition, swelled the ranks of the party, brought young people, Republicans and independents in, has demonstrated why he should be the nominee, and I think the party will embrace him. And I think it's going to happen before Denver.

MATTHEWS: Let me ask you about elitism. In these earlier contests, I was noticing that almost 60 percent in some cases of the Democratic participants had four years of college behind them. That's a highly out of sync figure. Most people would say 30 percent of the country with four years of college. The primaries today in Ohio and Texas had a more representative sample of four years of college and people who don't have it.

Are you worried as we get closer to a typical Democratic setting, a better sample of the Democratic party, more working people, less people with four years of college, that you're losing?

AXELROD: No, I'm not worried about that at all. If we look back at Wisconsin, we did very well with non-college educated voters, as we have in other places. So I'm not concerned about that, Chris. I think that we've done very well and I think will end up doing very well here in Texas when all the votes are counted, and certainly when all the delegates are counted.

So we'll have had a good day today on a day when the Clinton campaign said they were going to catch up. I also noticed that in those exit polls people, by a fairly wide margin, people had a pretty sour feeling about the kind of campaigning that - the kitchen sink campaigning that was done here. I think that catches up with you too.

So we feel good about where we're going. People want change in this country. I think they see Obama as the person who can bring that change. They don't want the same old thing, including the kitchen sink strategies that have mired us in the mess we're in in Washington. We're on track to be where we need to be.

OLBERMANN: David, certainly there, as you mentioned about the kitchen sink strategy, there's not going to be - going on to Pennsylvania, there's no indication that Senator Clinton has any intent other than to see it through at least that stage. Nothing happened today to make her think in those terms or even express the slightest doubt. Is there any reason for you to expect that there will not be a continued and perhaps escalation of the kitchen sink strategy? And at what point does that become pyrric for both candidates and split the Democratic party?

AXELROD: I don't know. Senator Clinton back in Iowa, when she announced her first wave of negatives, said this is the fun part of campaigning. And we don't necessarily consider that the fun part of campaigning. But we're willing to join the debate and we're not going to allow ourselves to be mischaracterized. We're not going to let our positions be twisted and we're going to be tough in response.

But we're going to do it in our own way and in keeping with the kind of campaign that we've run to date, that has captured a majority of voters of the 25 million who voted so far.

OLBERMANN: Should she get out tonight?

AXELROD: Look, I would never presume to tell anyone to get in or out of the race. Here's what I know; Barack Obama has a very, very substantial lead among delegates. At one point, their campaign said well, if someone had a 150 to 200 delegate lead, that would be a substantial lead. We have that lead. Time is running out.


I think we've got great prospects in the upcoming primaries and caucuses. I think we're going to add to that total. And so, you know, I think she has to assess what the purpose is of continuing and what the cost is of running the kind of campaign that could damage the party and damage our chances in the fall. But that's a decision she's going to have to make. I can't make that decision for her and I don't think anybody else can either.

MATTHEWS: David, what did you think of Senator Clinton's response to Steve Kroft's question on "60 Minutes" the other night about the religion of your candidate?

AXELROD: I was surprised, you know, because I know they've been in prayer breakfasts together in Washington. She knows very well that he's a Christian, that he's belonged to United Church of Christ Church in Chicago for almost 20 years. She knows all of that. I was disappointed that she answered the way she did or at least bewildered by it.

But I leave it to them to explain what she meant.

MATTHEWS: Do you think she's pushing the notion he may be a Muslim?

AXELROD: Well, I'm not going to climb into Senator Clinton's head and try and define what her motives are. All I know is that she knows very well that he's a devout Christian and I would think she would have spoken up unequivocally about that in that interview.

MATTHEWS: OK, David Axlerod, top strategist for the Obama campaign, thank you, sir, for coming with us tonight.

OLBERMANN: Coming up, the race in Texas still too close to call. We'll look at what's going on in that race with political director Chuck, it's too close to call and then it suddenly changes, Todd. MSNBC's Decision 2008 coverage continues after this.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. HILLARY CLINTON (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I know what they say, as Ohio goes, so goes the nation. Well, this nation is coming back and so is this campaign.

(END VIDEO CLIP)


OLBERMANN: Senator Hillary Clinton of New York victorious in Ohio tonight. While in Texas, the race between Senator Clinton and Senator Barack Obama of Illinois is still, say it with us now, too close to call. For more on what's going on in Texas and how this night might end up in the delegate count, we're joined once again by NBC News political director Chuck Todd, who does this by the numbers. Chuck, give it to us again. Why is it too close to call in Texas?

CHUCK TODD, NBC NEWS POLITICAL DIRECTOR: First, let's get some delegate numbers and math out of the way. We told you earlier that 64 percent magic number for Vermont. Obama missed it, so he only netted three out of Vermont. Guess what? Hillary Clinton is going to net at least three out of Rhode Island. We got a wash.

That means Ohio and Texas are where any delegates can be gained either one. Obviously, the victory in Ohio for Clinton, she's likely to gain five to nine delegates. That nine is the maximum that she would probably get. It's probably going to be five to seven, depending on how long the provisional ballots take. Trust me, the Obama campaign is going to try to get every provisional ballot counted, because they believe they might be able to pick up a delegate here or there, maybe in the 11th Congressional District, maybe in the 15th Congressional District.

So they'll be fighting for these provisional ballots for individual delegates. It looks like the total haul, a conservative estimate from the Clinton campaign is going to be in that single digit number. Just save that five to nine there.

Then let's move to the crazy Texas thing. Looks like Clinton is holding this lead, 50-48. Even if it holds, I've told you how all these border counties down here in Texas, where she's doing well, they're not giving her squat when it comes to delegates. Where Obama did really well in Dallas, in Houston, in Austin, that's where the delegate numbers were. There's a chance that Obama could erase a lot of that five to nine-delegate game from Ohio just in the first part of the primary, that he at least might net three or four delegates out of it, cut it in half.

And then there's the Texas caucus. Frankly, we don't know when we're going to get the Texas caucus information. We think - we think we'll get it by the time the Wyoming caucuses are held on Saturday. Maybe the Mississippi primary next Tuesday. We can report also on the Texas caucuses. But in that respect, he's likely to pick up more delegates there.

So in about a week, the Obama people are going to say, wait a minute, we may have lost three or four states, but we might have actually won the night on delegates. But that doesn't matter, Hillary Clinton declared the victory. So it is important when you declare victory sometimes, because the delegate math eventually may end up in Obama's favor tonight. But we're not going to know for sure for a few days.

OLBERMANN: So when, Chuck - we say it's too close to call in Texas, it's actually worse than that. Not only is it too close to call, but when it is called, the winner may not win.

TODD: That's the frustrating thing. We joked about this, what color do we make Texas? If she wins the popular vote and he wins the delegate haul, what color do you make it? Which blue do we use? Do we just blend the blue together? Do we stripe it? We had this happen in Nevada, where she won the caucuses and sort of the popular vote in Nevada, and he got more delegates out of it.

Our math, we went ahead and gave it to her. I assume the way our map will turn colors will give it to her. frankly, the AP headline tomorrow, the "New York Times" headlines would be she won three of four states tonight, worry about the delegate math later. But we have to get now more into this delegate math, and more intricate in figuring it out.

OLBERMANN: Chuck Todd, once again, I think we have broken the Chuck speaks and it's too close to call.

TODD: Thank goodness. We're waiting on all these big counties, but there's also a whole bunch of border counties that take forever to come in. I've watched a lot of House races take three and four days to be decided in the border counties, the 23rd Congressional District being one. We've done this multiple cycles in a row. So it could be a very long night.


OLBERMANN: We'll be waiting here throughout. And in the interim, we'll all be looking up to you. Thank you kindly, Chuck.

MATTHEWS: Let's check back with the panel, now featuring, led by Norah O'Donnell of MSNBC.

NORAH O'DONNELL, MSNBC ANCHOR: Chris and Keith, to borrow from Keith Olbermann, who borrowed from Brian Williams, I'm going to read from the Associated Press. Dateline Washington, Hillary Rodham Clinton showed renewed strength Tuesday in Texas and Ohio among whites and working class voters, who had begun deserting her campaign in recent contests.

Howard, did we see today that Hillary Clinton did well because she regained her base?

HOWARD FINEMAN, "NEWSWEEK": The same AP said she was a faltering candidate only a few weeks ago. It is really remarkable. I think the main reason is that she has made herself the meat and potatoes candidate, with white voters in Ohio, with Hispanic voters in Texas. She's talking, as Chris said about the present, not the future, about health care for all, about help with your mortgages, about the economy. And as the recession fears grow and the recession itself deepens, that plays to her strength.

Don't forget, Obama started out as an anti-war candidate, as a movement candidate, as a process candidate. The other thing, from talking to one of Obama's top strategists, even though David Axlerod said, I like where we are; behind the scenes they're not happy, because it's clear that the red phone ad in Texas and the attacks that Hillary mounted on the NAFTA trade issue had an effect. And you're going to see Hillary double down on those in the events to come.

O'DONNELL: What about, Rachel, the theme that we saw resonated, that change was more important than experience in all of these contests. Important again today, but it's narrowed. It was 20 points in Ohio, 15 points in Texas, change over experience. In the past contest, it's been a margin of like 30 points. Experience is moving up and she wins when people vote on experience.

RACHEL MADDOW, AIR AMERICA RADIO: Sure, and she's made very controversial comments praising her own experience alongside John McCain's experience, as a way of denigrating Barack Obama. I mean, the big thing that I think is happening right now is that Hillary Clinton is running as the anti-Barack Obama candidate. Barack Obama is just now starting to position himself as the anti-John McCain candidate. They're fighting two different battles.

I actually think the battle that Obama is fighting is just starting to with this speech tonight, is probably going to be a more potent battle in terms of what it says about his electability. Clinton seems to have no interest in turning away from the attacks she's waged against her Democratic opponent.

O'DONNELL: Gene, did Barack Obama lose control of the message in the past week? Or did his campaign predict all along, as Tim Russert was reporting, they didn't think they were going to win in Ohio and Texas. They predicted that a long time ago.

EUGENE ROBINSON, "THE WASHINGTON POST": Right, so they predicted that a long time ago, but did they want to win in Ohio? Yes. Do they still hold out hope of winning in Texas? Yes. They want to win. It seemed like he was playing defense, and I think that was - you know, as they look back on this period, they will see Hillary Clinton kind of dominating the news cycle, and determining the direction of the new story and the conversation, and making it about his perceived weaknesses and not her perceived weaknesses, making it about him, not -

O'DONNELL: She said tonight - Hillary Clinton said tonight, we are going all the way.


ROBINSON: And I believe her. I believe her now. I believe they are going all the way.

MADDOW: I believed John Edwards when he said it, too. I always believe it.

FINEMAN: Here's what this Obama person I was talking to said; the mistake we made was not keeping the focus on Hillary Rodham Clinton. Yes, you have to get to the general election, but not yet. This happened to Obama after Iowa and he took a victory lap after Iowa. It happened after South Carolina. Obama wants to make it a dignified general election debate with the Republican nominee about the big issues. He had to keep his foot on Hillary's neck and he didn't do it.

MADDOW: When you're throwing punches, you're the subject of the news stories. When you're throwing punches, whether or not they were untoward or unseemly or well appreciated, if you are on the attack, you look like a fighter.

FINEMAN: And Obama didn't want to be that guy.

O'DONNELL: We saw a large number of voters tonight who said they made up their mind in the last week. Clinton won those voters disproportionately. Nearly six in 10 voters who recently made their choice were supporting Clinton in Texas, the same as in Ohio. So those that made up their minds in the last week, was it because of the red phone ad, was it because of the questions about NAFTA and Obama's support, whether it was a wink and a nod to Canada?

ROBINSON: Any and all of the above. I think it was because she kind of had control of the news cycle and of the direction and tenor of the conversation. But, you know, I do think Obama makes a mistake if he pivots entirely to face John McCain, because the fight in front of him right now is Hillary Clinton.

FINEMAN: That was the fight in front of him last week and he lost sight of it.

MADDOW: The problem is Barack Obama is not fighting. Barack Obama is rising above the fray. It doesn't actually matter which fray he fights, but if he decides to go tit for tat with Hillary Clinton, all it's going to do is suppress Democratic exuberance even further.

ROBINSON: I agree he has to find the Obama way to do that. But my point is that he can't ignore the fact that what the Clintons are doing is fighting the battle that's in front of you right now, and worry about the next one later. And so if they tear down Barack Obama and tick a lot of people off, we'll fix that later.

FINEMAN: I don't think there's much danger of the Democrats losing their exuberance. The turnout of Democrats is remarkable and don't forget that "Washington Post" poll that came out today that said two to one or three to one, Democrats want the race to continue. They want this campaign to continue. I found that a fascinating poll number.

MADDOW: But what you've seen since Wisconsin is that the tone has changed so that now the effect of the Democratic contest is to characterize one of their likely nominees as untrustworthy and as weak on national security. That's bad for the Democrats in November. If they pivot and fight McCain, they look like fighters and don't suffer...


FINEMAN: Rachel, they're Democrats. That's what Democrats do.

MADDOW: Democrats will not be doing it to themselves.

(CROSSTALK)

ROBINSON: How much is all this costing? I mean, you know, is this the best use of all this money?

O'DONNELL: Well, what do you think Howard Dean was thinking tonight when he heard Hillary Clinton say we're going all the way? Yeow!

(LAUGHTER)

FINEMAN: I think Howard Dean is just hanging on by the side of the car. You know, he's just going along for the ride.

O'DONNELL: Party leaders are worried about that.

All right. Rachel, Howard and Gene, thank you so much.

And we are going to take it to a break. We'll have more right after this.

OLBERMANN: Well, no, not exactly. What we meant by that was that you had to break for a second because I'm going to come back to you, Norah, and ask the panel a question for something that happened while you were talking.

And I should mention that some of the polls in the Houston area have closed only within the last half an hour, to talk about Democratic exuberance in Texas. But now here's the development.


It is a total mystery, and you can just go to town on this. All we have on this is from our embed with the Clinton campaign in Ohio, who was just told by the Clinton campaign that Obama called Clinton. Not he called her something, he phoned her, they were in contact tonight.

Norah, do you want to ask the panel what the heck that could have been about?

O'DONNELL: Keith, thank you.

OLBERMANN: You're welcome.

O'DONNELL: Panel?

(LAUGHTER)

MADDOW: I'm surprised he didn't wait until 3:00 a.m.

O'DONNELL: Usually the person who is...

(LAUGHTER)

MADDOW: I just wanted to see if you answered the phone. I was afraid you wouldn't answer the phone!

O'DONNELL: That may be the best line of the night by Rachel.

OLBERMANN: Yes, it is.


O'DONNELL: Usually that person who is conceding calls the victor.

FINEMAN: Well, I thought the body language of the back-to-back speeches was interesting. Hillary, of course, did not stop to congratulate Obama on his victory in Vermont. She didn't even mention him as far as I can remember, whereas...

O'DONNELL: Well, Obama did not...

FINEMAN: Well, but Obama was gracious and said we want to congratulate Hillary Clinton on her hard-fought victories in Rhode Island and Ohio. I mean, this is the way Obama wants to be. His campaign has been tough, some of the ads have been very nasty, but Obama himself wants to project the image that he thinks is real and that most people who know him think is who he is, which is that he wants to fight in a gentlemanly way.

So he wanted to congratulate her. I think he wants to tell her, look, this is going to be a long road. And whoever is going to win the nomination has to win it in a way that salvages the Democrats' chance in the fall. And that's what they're talking to each other about, whether - or whatever it was they said to each other, the nice words I'm imagining they said to each other, whether they can actually honor them is another question.

O'DONNELL: All right. Thank you.

And now I'm going to toss it back to Keith - Keith.

OLBERMANN: And the panel staying with us, Norah.

(LAUGHTER)

OLBERMANN: When we return, a crosser look at the Latino vote in Texas as we wait for a result in a race there that is too close to call.

This is MSNBC's "Decision 2008" coverage.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)


MATTHEWS: Well, the race in Texas remains too close to call between Senator Clinton and Senator Obama.

Joining us now is Maria Teresa Petersen, the executive director of Voto Latino.

I'm looking at the numbers, Maria Teresa, and look at these numbers, 63-35, Senator Clinton won the Latino vote. It's about 30 percent of Texas. Obviously a hugely important part of the electorate down there.

Tell me what you thought in terms of expectations.

MARIA TERESA PETERSEN, VOTO LATINO: Well, I think it goes down - exactly down a generational divide, Chris. What we're finding is that 33 percent of the Latino vote was under 30, and I think that's what it's demonstrating right then and there.

MATTHEWS: And how did they go?

PETERSEN: And they went for Barack under 30. Over 30, they went overwhelmingly for Hillary.

And I think, again, it's a microcosm of the rest of the state. I think what we're going to find is, at the end of the day, the Latino vote is the new soccer moms of the Clinton generation, only this time it's for the 2008 election.

MATTHEWS: Well, you know, the whole question of youth versus age depends on where the line is drawn. Of course, Saturday Night Live's joke was that Hillary Clinton could brag that she got women over 85, but, in fact, I've looked at this line and it moves. And where Senator Clinton wins, it's when the line is low. And you point it out.

What is the demarcation point?

PETERSEN: Under 30.

MATTHEWS: Well, that's not a good success for Barack Obama, to only get the voters under 30, is it?


PETERSEN: Well, I think what it's saying is he has - you know, he's resonating with this - with this demographic. Not unusual for the youth vote.

Now, what we have to keep in mind is that the folks that are watching this race very closely, we keep talking about Barack and Hillary. McCain is starting to watch the Latino vote, recognizing again, that they're the ones that are going to be the swing vote. So there's a lot of - you know, a lot of the missteps that folks are taking now are going to be definitely lessons learned for moving forward.

MATTHEWS: Is he a Republican who is seen as good on immigration issues?

PETERSEN: He is. And like I said before, he has courted the Latino leadership in the past. However, because the immigration conversation has become so caustic, that increasingly, Latinos are associating anti-immigration, anti-Latino bashing with the Republican Party.

MATTHEWS: Let me ask you about Hillary and Obama.

You said that there's a dividing point of 30 years old, that people under that vote for Barack Obama. I believe we crossed the border. I was looking at the numbers in Ohio and Texas today. For most communities - in fact, overall - that dividing line is about age 50.

So that means that the Latinos aren't quite as susceptible to age politics as other communities. Is that right?

PETERSEN: I would agree. I think we have to look more closely at the exit polls, but I would agree.

Also, I think Chuck had mentioned it earlier. Barack did everything right in the fact as far as, you know, going into Houston, going into Austin and going to Dallas. And Hillary did everything right, saying, OK, you have those strongholds, I'm going to go everywhere else.

MATTHEWS: Well, let me ask you about the results then. We haven't gotten an official call yet from our network. It's up in the air right now. We may have one the next couple of hours, we may have one in 15 minutes, for all I know, but it's still up in the air.

Will the Latino vote will be as decisive do you think in Texas as it was in California? I mean, a lot of people believe that Hillary Clinton's victory in California, again, where you had 30 percent of the Democratic vote being Latino, was, to a large extent, a result of her very successful cultivation of that community, of your community.

PETERSEN: I think you hit the nail on the head. I think that's exactly what's going to happen. I mean, 2-1, Latinos are going for Hillary. And she's been able to maintain that lead and hasn't been able to shrink. So...


MATTHEWS: Talk the tough part here - black-brown dispute, is there one?

PETERSEN: No. I mean, again, this is - I think the best example that I always like to use is when Barack ran himself for, you know, Bobby Rush's district, you know, a couple of years back. He won more of the Latino vote than he won the African-American vote.

Fast forward, when he ran for Senate, he ran against a Latino developer, Jerry Chico (ph). He won the Latino vote against a Latino candidate. So, now, it's a matter of what are the issues? That's what resonates with the community, Chris.

MATTHEWS: God. You're saying that being Latino is not good enough. I mean, that is an astounding statistic. Was this guy a weak candidate or what?

PETERSEN: Well, no. He had definitely establishment in D.C., so I think it was more of a matter of, again, resonating with the community. What are the issues? That's what's going to be decisive for the Latino vote.

MATTHEWS: Would the Latino community come through for Barack if he is the nominee? That's the big question. Will they come through in the general if they don't have Hillary around as a buffer?

PETERSEN: Well, I think, again, what's interesting - we'll go back to the Latino youth vote. Five out of six Latino youth that were asked if they were to come out against Hillary or McCain, they actually said that they wouldn't come to the polls. However, they overwhelmingly said that if Barack was the nominee, they definitely would.

MATTHEWS: OK. Thank you.

PETERSEN: Thank you, Chris.

MATTHEWS: Keith?

OLBERMANN: As Texas continues to move on without a verdict, without an outcome, there is one other number that we can give you that pertains to the Clinton campaign, and it's about tomorrow morning.

"The Today Show," "Good Morning America," "The Early Show," "American Morning," "Fox & Friends" and "Morning Joe" each will feature - well, I hope they won't, any of them, call it an exclusive interview, but each will feature an interview with Senator Hillary Clinton.


Media friendliness is picking up at all corners of this race. Six appearances tomorrow from Washington for Senator Clinton. And we'll see, maybe she'll have Texas to talk about by that point and maybe she will not.

And we're going to continue not on that point, because that really didn't go that very far, did it, with the panel and Norah O'Donnell.

You got something better than tomorrow morning's schedule? I've got some trains and buses I can announce as they arrive through the area.

O'DONNELL: No. But listen, Keith, the people that are watching us now are probably not going to be up watching "The Today Show" at 7:00 a.m.

OLBERMANN: That's why I said it, because I'm trying to provide that public service for those who will miss all those programs.

O'DONNELL: Absolutely.

And what is noteworthy about that is what people forget, is that Hillary Clinton is flying back to Washington tonight and then will get up early. I mean, these candidates are working so hard.

And Hillary Clinton is fighting tooth and nail for this nomination, Gene, and she has been tenacious over the past week.

ROBINSON: Right. There does seem to be this second wind in the Clinton campaign. I'm not sure if she ever completely lost it. But, you know, Ohio is a big, important state.

I'm still not sure what's going to happen in Texas. There's still enough votes, it looks to me, left to count in the Houston area that could tip it either way. So I can understand why we're not calling it.

(CROSSTALK)

ROBINSON: I do think it could go either way. But clearly, there's - I mean, all morning shows, what's left of her could be a good precedent.


FINEMAN: If I were the Clinton campaign - I mean, excuse me, the Obama campaign - I would not assume as Tim Russert's spreadsheet said that Pennsylvania is a goner for Obama. There's a lot of time.

And unlike some of these other states, with seven weeks between now and the Pennsylvania primary on April 22nd, Obama has a chance to really introduce himself and explain himself from the ground up to the people of Pennsylvania in a way that he really didn't have a chance to do despite all of his money in Ohio and Texas. And Pennsylvania is changing and has changed.

In my hometown of Pittsburgh, there isn't a single steel mill. It's a big college town today. It's a big health care town today. It's not what it was.

A lot of the Rust Belt is gone. That's true in southeastern Pennsylvania, around Philadelphia.

It's true that there is still Alabama in between. But Obama has to go to that Alabama, and he can sell himself in that Alabama. And the expectations for Hillary are so high there, are so set in stone, that the only way it seems to me he can convincingly stop her campaign is by really making an effort and pulling off a victory for that state. I'm not trying to set the bar high for him, I have no dog in this fight. I'm just saying that's what he needs to do with seven weeks to go.

The state has changed a lot and that's what he's got to try to bring off. It's...

MADDOW: Well, and we don't go straight there though. We do go to Wyoming and Mississippi.

FINEMAN: Sure. Well, he's going to pick up - and he's going to win Wyoming and he's going to Mississippi, probably. So he's going to pick up a little bit of momentum. But this assumption that Pennsylvania is over with, I don't buy. The state has changed a lot and he can bring it to further change by making a real race there.

MADDOW: The one thing that will be interesting in Pennsylvania, just briefly, is that it will be a real test of the received wisdom in this campaign that any place with a traditional Democratic machine benefits Clinton. We started to see a shift away from that as superdelegates started peeling off and heading toward Obama. That may now be in flux, and Pennsylvania may be the measure of whether or not that political common wisdom ought to hold.

O'DONNELL: What about the stat that David Axlerod just spoke with Chris and Keith about? Obama, 28 states; Clinton 13 states. We're waiting for Texas. Hopefully at any time now we could get the results from Texas.

Obama still ahead in the popular vote. She could win the next 16 states and Obama could still win the delegate math.

FINEMAN: Well, that's true. By the way, in terms of popular vote, it's not like it's a blowout.


O'DONNELL: Yes.

FINEMAN: If I'm not mistaken, Obama is ahead by a few hundred thousand votes in the popular vote out of 25 million cast.

ROBINSON: It's very close.

FINEMAN: I mean, he picked up a lot of states with not a lot of people in them. So that's true.

It's pretty darn close. And if you were Hillary Clinton and you were behind by only 150 delegates, and you need 2,025 to win, and you've won all these big industrial states, why would you get out of the race?

I mean, and having won Rhode Island, having won Ohio, and possibly having won Texas, you know, what was going to be a meeting in Washington tomorrow where they were going to consider whether to get out of the race now becomes a meeting about how to plan the rest of the campaign...

ROBINSON: A re-launch.

FINEMAN:... right up through the convention. And all the tumult that was going to happen in the campaign - you know, Mark Penn on the outs, all this other stuff, is going to be forgotten as they figure out how to go from here to there.

O'DONNELL: And so does it make it all the more likely that we may hear from Al Gore, from Nancy Pelosi, from Joe Biden, from Bill Richardson, form any of these other...

(CROSSTALK)

ROBINSON: At this point, less likely. Because I don't think that matters at this point.

I don't think there's a reason for - certainly for - there's no reason for Obama to pull out. He's leading. He's winning.


FINEMAN: Yes.

ROBINSON: And he's going to go into the convention with the most pledged delegates.

FINEMAN: And he's going to have the most pledged delegates. Yes.

ROBINSON: If there's no reason for her to pull out, then we are marching to Puerto Rico.

O'DONNELL: All right.

MADDOW: If there's a vote for the party elders here...

(CROSSTALK)

O'DONNELL: All right. We've got to send it back to Keith.

OLBERMANN: Panel, we're calling Texas.

NBC News is projecting Hillary Clinton as the winner in the Democratic primary in the state of Texas in a hard-fought battle. This is from a conclusion based on what is now 74 percent of the vote reporting and a three percent margin.

Hillary Clinton projected as the winner in both Texas and Ohio tonight. And so the victory speech was by no stretch of the imagination premature, nor if this projection holds was it going to be contradicted by anything later on in the evening - Chris.

MATTHEWS: Three out of four tonight. We talked about that earlier tonight on our program.


Three out of four was the way it was drifting during the day. We kept getting reports - not from exit polling, just from a lot of the polling done right up to the edge of the voting today.

There was a drift over the weekend. Hillary Clinton does very well from Sunday to Tuesday. There's something that goes on. I don't call it buyer's remorse.

Again, unless you bought it, you can't have remorse. But as people are going down to make that final decision where to vote, Hillary Clinton does get some pushback against Obama. And that's apparently what happened here.

OLBERMANN: All right. Tim Russert is back with us.

Assess Texas, and why now, and what the implications are, and how changed this playing field comes by the fact that Senator Clinton managed to reclaim these two areas that were suddenly up for grabs.

RUSSERT: She will say her - her campaign, Keith, will say that they have won the night. This will be a huge psychological boost.

It will help them with their donors, with campaign morale. They'll win the public relations battle with the headline: "Clinton Wins Three of the Four."

The Obama people will counter, saying, excuse us, how many delegates did she win? And if you watch the caucus results that you're seeing on your screen from Texas, you will see that Obama is doing quite well amongst those caucused delegates.

Watch for the Clinton people tomorrow, Keith, to say, you see, this is the difference between a primary and a caucus. When the people vote, we win. When you have one of these caucuses with all these kinds of rules, he wins.

I believe that they will keep trying to underscore that, trying to belittle, in effect, caucus victories. Again, appealing to this jury of superdelegates, because the Clinton people know that they will not be able to catch Barack Obama with elected delegates over the next 90 days. They need some outside factor to intervene, to make their case, their appeal, their closing argument to the superdelegates.

OLBERMANN: And what is that?

RUSSERT: Well, they will say tonight that they won Texas and Ohio. They won California, New York, Massachusetts, New Jersey. All the big states that someone has to win if they want to be elected president of the United States as a Democrat.


Then they will try to play Michigan and Florida. And that's when the real battle starts. That is what it's all about.

I believe the chairman of the Democratic Party, Howard Dean, will now have to intervene in a big way and figure something out about Florida and Michigan, because those two states have become critical. And if there's doing to be do-overs, they have to be scheduled now so people have adequate time to prepare campaigns and budgets and strategy, because it is clear after these three wins tonight that Hillary Clinton is not going to get out of this race, and not going to abandon it at any time.

I think it goes, as I said earlier, far beyond Pennsylvania, because Barack Obama is not going to abandon it just because she won three out of four. He's going to say, I won 11 in a row, and I'm ahead in elected delegates, and until you take the elected delegate count away from me, I'm going to be the nominee.

MATTHEWS: And this is how tough it gets, Tim. Terry McAuliffe was on tonight, and he would not allow us to believe that in any way the Clintons have committed themselves to letting the candidate with the most elected delegates win this thing. They reserve the right to win this with superdelegates, Tim.

RUSSERT: Absolutely. They will say that each of these candidates needs to get superdelegates to put them over the top. They will not say whoever has the most elected delegates.

MATTHEWS: Right.

RUSSERT: And that's, Chris, why Hillary Clinton tonight, when she did her litany of states, Michigan and Florida.

OLBERMANN: And Michigan and Florida, do you think, Tim, that Ed Rendell was freelancing, freebooting, when he said, you know, we're going to have - we're assuming primaries in June in those two states, or was that something that was sort of let slip from the equivalent of the smoke-filled rooms of 2008?

RUSSERT: Great question. I don't know.

The official position of the Clinton campaign is there's no need for do-overs. But when you hear Governor Crist of Florida saying that the state may be willing to pay for a primary in Florida - and the cost is about $10 million from the estimates I've heard. Michigan is not going to allow Florida to go forward without them doing something. I think the pressure is going to grow considerably to have some kind of do-over in those two states.

OLBERMANN: There is contrarian thinking to those of us who have suggested that seven weeks until Pennsylvania and a kind of - somebody else used the term knife fight, a seven-week-long knife fight between now and then would be a disaster for the Democratic Party. There's another line of thinking that suggests that period of time, which is now - has now begun, is, in fact, a good thing for the Democratic Party because it could in some respects wipe John McCain off the map until the end of April because this will be the political story.

RUSSERT: Counter-programming. But what kind of programming is it, Keith?


OLBERMANN: Exactly.

RUSSERT: I do think that Obama will win Wyoming on Saturday and Mississippi on Tuesday, which will increase his delegate count. And I'm watching carefully these Texas caucus delegates, because he actually, in terms of tonight, we don't know who's going to emerge with more delegates, putting in the four states together. But if the campaign - the tone of the campaign between now and Pennsylvania is similar to the last 10 days, it is going to be, I think, a very divisive one for the Democratic Party.

Barack Obama has been resisting trying to involve tit for tat. However, you heard David Axlerod in your interview saying, we'll respond and we'll respond firmly in our own way. But they clearly believe that based on these results tonight, that if "throwing the kitchen sink" is going to bring results, they need a strategy to counter that.

And if it means that he has to change his campaign method somewhat, so be it. And still try to protect his image as someone who is willing - be willing to be above politics as usual. It's a very delicate tightrope to walk.

OLBERMANN: A race to Home Depot for the kitchen sink sales.

MATTHEWS: We're looking at a race in Pennsylvania, Tim, in seven weeks which amounts to a statewide race, a gubernatorial or a Senate race. I've heard figures like $30 million. I mean, they can go in there, both of these candidates, and really burn some money, can't they?

RUSSERT: Huge amounts of money. The number is anywhere between $25 million and $35 million. And it's money that both campaigns would acknowledge they would be better off spending trying to define John McCain than each other. But they're not going to have that choice after tonight.

Pennsylvania, as we also know, is a closed primary. Democrats only. And that's why Hillary Clinton is feeling so confident about it.

But Barack Obama has to make a very strong campaign in Pennsylvania. He has to go all out. If nothing else, to keep the margin close.

Those numbers I read to you earlier, they sense that they may come up short. But he has to keep his delegate lead, because if he ever loses his elected delegate lead by allowing Hillary Clinton to have a blowout in any of these states, then he really does, I think, lose a huge claim on the nomination.

He wants to go in, after these primaries are over, Chris and Keith, saying, I won elected delegates, I won more states, I won the popular vote. How can you possibly take this nomination away from me?

MATTHEWS: This promises to be like Pennsylvania was back in 1980, Tim. I must say, it looks like Kennedy and Carter again, it looks like another nail-biter, heavily contested, lots of money spent, lots of TV as that are going to be lethal-style ads, very nasty ads going into that April 22nd fight, don't you think?


RUSSERT: Oh, you know, it's a state that is, with Philadelphia and Pittsburgh and Scranton, different cultures, different voting blocs, different demographics. Huge media interest spilling over into the New York City media markets as well.

I mean, it's going to be extraordinary. And the key is, Chris, the Clinton people will try to say Pennsylvania is the state. That's it, nothing else counts.

Watch the Obama people say, wait a minute, don't sell Wyoming, Mississippi, North Carolina. Don't sell those states short because they all have delegates, and delegates nominate.

OLBERMANN: Tim Russert, thanks kindly.

That concludes this hour.

Our MSNBC coverage continues.

For Chris Matthews, I'm Keith Olbermann. We're continuing next.

KEITH OLBERMANN, MSNBC CORRESPONDENT: Voter night is at an end. Vermont, Ohio, Texas and Rhode Island, big wins at least in terms of the total vote count for Hillary Clinton and of course for John McCain, who is now the presumptive nominee of the Republican Party. Hillary Clinton after an 0 and 11 streak that stretched to 0 and 12 tonight. The projected winner in Texas in what would be presumably an extraordinarily close combination of a primary and a caucus. Clinton the winner among the Democrats in Texas.

Earlier in the evening, Ohio was called for Hillary Clinton. A tough fought race that was in double digits in the real numbers at last count. Rhode Island, earlier in the night another victory for Hillary Clinton. Three out of four Rhode Island projected for Clinton of New York. The one Obama victory was the first declared of the night, a handy victory in a state in which the voters said Iraq and the economy were virtually tied for number one issue for them. Vermont to Obama.

And among the Republicans, all four of the votes tonight, Vermont, Ohio, Texas and Rhode Island going to Senator McCain. Governor Huckabee of Arkansas acknowledged that Senator McCain had all the delegates he needed, well over 1,200 to guarantee himself the Republic nomination at their convention in St. Paul this summer and he gave a speech essentially conceding. Senator McCain gave a speech, thanking Governor Huckabee and others in the Republican Party and received phone calls from both Senators Obama and Clinton congratulating him on becoming officially the Republican nominee and then gave a speech congratulating himself for doing that as well. We continue at MSNBC and NBC News world headquarters in New York. I didn't mean to insult Senator McCain that way, but he did congratulate himself and it was well earned. Chris Matthews there and Keith Olbermann here and obviously the story is Hillary Clinton, a huge three for four night.

CHRIS MATTHEWS, MSNBC CORRESPONDENT: Three for four. I thought it was interesting. They both took the opportunity to address the American people and these nights when we have primary results are a chance for them to talk to so many more people than they normally could. I thought it was interesting that Senator Clinton was very tactical. She said I'm staying in this race so that the people from Pennsylvania and other subsequent states can be heard from. She became almost a tribune of those people saying I will fight for your right to be heard. They shall be heard. We want their turn. They want they turn.

On the other hand, Obama, Senator Obama when he got his chance tonight was as always, rather lofty, but he spoke about something I hadn't heard before, maybe you, about his goal of restoring the popularity if you will of the phrase, I am an American in the world. That we can walk around the world, travel around the world with a general positive acceptance of our country. And not this hostility that has been stirred up a bit by the war in Iraq and other foreign policy judgments. I did think that was an interesting dichotomy very particular with Senator Clinton, very grand with Obama.


OLBERMANN: Yeah. And the, referring, defining the change that he said he represented or intended to represent as in fact the rehabilitation of America's position abroad, its reputation abroad, certainly was a new sort of splitting of what that is. The statement for change has been there. It has not been extraordinarily and precisely defined. And here was one that sort of came out of left field but resonated pretty well. The speeches were so extraordinarily dissimilar though because Hillary Clinton took the opportunity to mention 3:00 a.m. again, made the reference to that phone call, that famous or infamous or we're sick of it phone call, depending on your point of view. Tried to parody Senator Obama's yes we can chant. There was a yes we will chant started during her speech in Ohio.

MATTHEWS: And that's a nice (INAUDIBLE)

OLBERMANN: And just to round it out, she yelled out the names of the states that we're still going to have to go through starting in Pennsylvania, highlighted in Pennsylvania, just as Howard Dean did with a little bit better results presumably.

MATTHEWS: A kudo Keith is in order for one of our panelists tonight. Rachel Maddow (ph), because Rachel Maddow had the greatest line of the night. She said that Barack Obama, when did he make his call. He should have made it at 3:00 a.m. so that we could see if it did go to seven rings or not on her cell phone. I think that will go down, hopefully some brilliant blogger will make that into history for us. There she is. Receiving the kudo.

OLBERMANN: Hello. You've reached Senator Clinton's voice mail. She can't come to the phone right now. Chuck Todd is always available to come to the phone. With Hillary Clinton's victories tonight, where do we go from here? He is of course, our political director, MSNBC and NBC News. Chuck joins us once again. Chuck, good evening and good morning.

CHUCK TODD, MSNBC CORRESPONDENT: Ring, ring, hello. We're going to get to 3:00 a.m. tonight apparently. We'll be able to see if we answer the call at 3:00 a.m.

OLBERMANN: Speak for yourself.

TODD: Yes sir. Well, where do we go from here? We got this all lined up, 12 more contests. And I think what is interesting is, I kind of just want to group them together. Obviously we know Pennsylvania, April 22nd. This Saturday, Wyoming, Mississippi. But I kind of want to group them together in this respect. We've got these contests out here. They feel like Obama contests. They look familiar. We're starting to see an Obama, you can almost figure out where can Obama win and where can Clinton win, right? And then you have these two southern states. North Carolina, Mississippi, large African-American populations. They feel like good paces for Obama.

Then you look here and this sort of industrial Midwest border state. They feel like Hillary Clinton states. The reason you sort of group them that way, is you say to yourself, at some point, one of these candidates has to win one in the other guy's turf. So to look, to look at these states and you say where is one going to target the other? Obviously, they all to have play in Pennsylvania; that's a tough state. Tim Russert pointed out only Democrats. That's a big, big issue for Obama. He has yet to win a primary that was Democrats only that you didn't have any independents involved. That would be tough. But obviously, it would be a sort of nail in the coffin type of victory for Obama if he could win one on her turf.

Though in it reverse. How about her figuring out how to win North Carolina? This is a state looks an awful lot like Virginia, at least in the primary, large African-American vote. Large sort of in that Raleigh, Chapel Hill area where you have some white wine drinkers and lots of college educated folks that seem to gravitate toward Obama. Maybe this is a place she thinks she can go run up the score in western Carolina. Show off her barbecue roots there and show that she knows the difference between vinegar based barbecue and tomato based barbecue and things like that.

So you almost wonder, if it is one of those two states, can one win something in the other person's turf? Those seem to be the two big ones I point out. If you're looking for delegate prizes, Pennsylvania is the biggest one left. After that comes North Carolina. That's the second biggest one. And then after that is Indiana which is on the same night as North Carolina. That's one that maybe Obama thinks that he can pull one from her turf. And then the fourth biggest prize for delegates, guys, the last one, Puerto Rico, 55 delegates. That's the fourth biggest prize. Forget all these other states. Puerto Rico actually has more delegates than Oregon, gets more delegates than Kentucky, more delegates than West Virginia, than real states that have real members of Congress. Puerto Rico without a real member of Congress, a real governor, they get 55 delegates. Go figure. Only in the Democratic Party, right?

OLBERMANN: What I noticed is not on your list there Chuck, Michigan and Florida primaries.


TODD: And that I think this is, Tim brought this up in that last segment. This is now, Howard Dean can no longer sit on the sidelines and say OK and hope this was going to get worked out without having to figure out what they were going to do with Florida and Michigan. It doesn't look like some sort of credentials committee compromise where you split the delegates 50/50 between the two, so somebody is going to have to take control of this and say OK. We got to schedule something. We got to figure this out because this isn't going to resolve itself in some sort of fight behind closed doors. If there is going to be a primary, is there going to be a caucus? You got some big powerful Democrats in Michigan. Debbie Dingell, John Dingell, longest serving Democrat in the House, Jennifer Grandholm (ph), these are really power players. Jimmy Hoffa, the teamsters. It could be a big player up there in Michigan. Labor has a big stake in this. Then you've got Florida, a lot of big players there. You wonder if some senior statesmen might step in here. This will be an interesting way for Al Gore to step into the process and say OK, I'm not going to endorse anybody, but I am going to endorse the idea of a new Florida primary or a new Florida caucus.

OLBERMANN: Hi, I'm Al Gore and I know my Florida.

MATTHEWS: Chuck it just seems that my initial notion of this campaign, it is the only sport, the only competition when you have the playoffs and then you have the regular season. I mean, we thought we had a major coming to Jesus decision back in what New Hampshire? Before it was Iowa. We thought each one of them was going to decide who won this thing. And yet we find ourselves going further and further away from a decisive battle.

TODD: And there doesn't seem to be one. Like I said, the only way you can come up a decisive battle in this is if somehow she beat him on his turf, North Carolina, Mississippi or he beat her on her turf, Pennsylvania being the first shot. He would have to knock her off. Maybe Kentucky or an Indiana falls into that category. Where they just finally proved to the other side, oh, I can win over your supporters. I can win on your turf.

OLBERMANN: I can drink your milkshake. While we still have you, is there anything without going through telestrator again, is the any indication yet about who won delegates in Ohio and Texas?

TODD: No. We are starting to get some Texas caucus results. Not surprisingly, Obama is doing well. He's polling well there. He's probably going to win the caucus side of this thing. I've already told but the allocation issues that have gone against Clinton. Obama probably had a negative 5 point cushion to still be able to net delegates between both the caucus and the primary out of Texas. If she gets seven out of Ohio plus seven, we already said Vermont and Rhode Island cancel each other out. Each of them got about three out of there. She gets seven out of Ohio. You can see how he gets five, seven, nine, who knows out of Texas. So we're looking at this entire night where Hillary Clinton may win more states than she does net delegates.

MATTHEWS: Just so people can go to bed tonight and put their head on the pillow with some assurance, is it impossible or implausible for Senator Clinton to win elected delegates?

TODD: You got to say it is improbable. It's not impossible. Look, percentage wise, it's after tonight, it's 62 percent. Assuming Mississippi and Wyoming go the way we think they're going to go, that number climbs to 65 percent going forward, starting with Pennsylvania. Now what does that mean? That means all remaining pledge delegates, 65 percent. We already went through some states. We said Oregon is likely, these western states are likely to be Obama states, North Carolina, likely to be an Obama state. So if you pull those out of the figure, then suddenly it becomes 75, 80 percent. They're numbers that are not realistic. We saw tonight. She had a potentially a double digit victory in Ohio. I said potentially because Cuyahoga County will count their votes sometime this week and it could get down to single digits. Even if it is 14 points, she's going to net seven delegates out of it. That's what kind of land slide it took for her to get seven delegates. That's the climb. That's sort of the up-hill climb she's facing in a lot of these states.

MATTHEWS: So as we go to bed tonight, it is unlikely, in fact implausible that she'll win the delegate count of elected delegates.

TODD: That's correct. But let's remember, it is also unlikely that Barack Obama is going to get to 20 25 and so both of them are going to be short. The question is now, it becomes this resume battle with the super delegates. I really think that that's what it is. It will be a resume battle.

MATTHEWS: I'm trying to imagine this from a regular person's point of view. They pick up the paper a month from now. They say, wait a minute. Barack Obama got the most elected delegates. He got the most votes cast for him, but wait a minute. There's going to be this meeting of these people called super delegates, right. That's what's going to be in the paper in their heads, right (INAUDIBLE)

TODD: They're also going to see Hillary Clinton won Texas. She won Ohio. She won Pennsylvania. She won California. She won New York. These aren't insignificant states either. They're going to get to a point, at least I think that's what the Clinton folks hope, that look. They know they're not going to overtake him. I think their hope is to get it under 100, get that pledge delegate lead under 100 and then they can sit here and say, gee, it's negligible the difference between us, now look at our body of work. And she will say, my body of work has included Ohio possibly Pennsylvania.


MATTHEWS: That's not the way Jeffersonian democracy works. Jefferson would have said that if democracy is a willingness to accept a victory by one vote. That's how it works.

TODD: Jefferson wasn't on this McGovern commission back in 1972 when they created this mess.

MATTHEWS: It would have helped. It certainly would have helped.

OLBERMANN: Chuck Todd, MSNBC, NBC News political director and also, you heard from his references to the barbecue, the fill-in host of diners and diets on the Food Network. Thanks Chuck.

So we will now - we know now we are going to go through some process. It will go through at least Pennsylvania and more likely into June, possibly primaries as yet on board in Florida and Michigan as yet unscheduled. And yet the results will perhaps not be decided by the primaries.

MATTHEWS: Not until Denver. Did you notice the lilt in Tim Russert as it sort of grew? He grew. He elevated as he talked of June. It is almost, one of the sports, I was just thinking, this was supposed to be over in the spring and yet we're going to contests it looks like now like the Stanley cup, like the NBA playoffs. It is hot out. You're at the beach and you're watching the NBA championship. Right? You're watching the hockey championship, the Stanley cup. It's going to be like that. It's going to be in the summer.

OLBERMANN: I know, he know. When is the all-star break? How about we take one right now?

MATTHEWS: We'll need one. We'll need one. I think we're taking a real break.

OLBERMANN: I think we are. When we return, Nora O'Donnell and the panel will take over our coverage. Chris Matthews, a pleasure sir.

MATTHEWS: It's always good.

OLBERMANN: I'm Keith Olbermann. Thanks for being with us tonight. Coming up, the race in Texas decided at the last minute virtually and all the rest tonight. Nora O'Donnell takes you the rest of the way. Thank you.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)


NORA O'DONNELL, MSNBC CORRESPONDENT: And welcome back to MSNBC's continuing decision 2008 coverage, tonight Hillary Clinton won three of four contests and vowed to fight on until the end. Here she is addressing her supporters in Columbus, Ohio.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. HILLARY CLINTON (D) PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Americans don't need more promises. They've heard plenty of speeches. They deserve solutions and they deserve them now. America needs a president who is ready to lead, ready to stand up for what's right, even when it is hard. And after seven long years of George W. Bush, we sure are ready for a president who will be a fighter, a doer and a champion for the American people again.

I think we're ready for health care, not just for some people or most people but for every American. I think we're ready for an economy that works for everyone not just those at the top but every single hard working American who deserves a shot at the American dream. I think we're ready to declare energy independence and create million of green collar jobs. We're ready to reach out to our allies and confront our shared challenges. We're ready to end war in Iraq and win the war in Afghanistan. And we're past ready to serve our veterans with the same devotion that they've served us. Protecting America is the first and most urgent duty of the president. When there is a crisis and that phone rings at 3:00 a.m. in the White House, there is no time for speeches or on-the-job training. You have to be ready to make a decision.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

O'DONNELL: That was Hillary Clinton earlier tonight in Columbus, Ohio, addressing her supporters. Hillary Clinton is going to be up at 3:00 a.m. this morning. Her plane just took off from Ohio. She is flying back to Washington, DC and she is going to be on all of the morning shows tomorrow. She says this was a big night for her and right before her plane took off, she told reporters that because she won three out of the four states tonight, she quote, began a new chapter in this historic campaign. We are joined by our panel. Chuck Todd joins us, Rachel Maddow and Eugene Robinson. And Gene, how big of a psychological boost is this for the Clinton campaign and her supporters?

EUGENE ROBINSON: I think it is huge because it keeps the campaign alive. They were set to have a meeting tomorrow in Washington that could have been a meeting to discuss options in the kind of terminal sense. And now it will be a re-launch of the campaign. Three out of four including the two big ones is a good night. Now, as Chuck will no doubt tell us, that does not translate to delegates. And so at the end of this evening, as we have been every night basically, you know, we're back where we started. We're back where we've been for a while and this is just going to be on. And they're both really strong candidates.

RACHEL MADDOW: It is like we're back where we started in the sense that it is kind of tied again. Except there's this looming issue of the delegates. If we're at where we started out in the campaign, which is that both of them have a shot. Except one of them doesn't really have a shot at wrapping up the total number of delegates. It makes you realize that this may be have to be decided by party elders in the sense they have to push somebody out or they have to push it all the way to the convention and let those delegates decide. I don't see another way out of it.

O'DONNELL: Chuck, Hillary Clinton said tonight, we're going on, we are going strong and we are going all the way. Her chief strategist Mark Penn (ph) said this week, there are 16 more contests to go.

TODD: He misspoke. There's actually 12. No, Mark Penn misspoke, as always to me, proved to me that his head has never been in this calendar. He has never understood the primary process from the beginning and he has been running a general election campaign which I think is what got him in some much trouble. But anyway, I didn't mean to interrupt.

O'DONNELL: No, no, 12 states. Even if she were to win those contests, could she catch up in the delegate match?

TODD: Well, no. The point is Obama can't get to 2025 either so which is a point the Clinton campaign would make and it is a fair point. My favorite thing about this process is that we're learning what each candidate can't do. Hillary Clinton is proving she is not a good party leader. She doesn't know how to organize. She doesn't know how to handle the caucus situation. Obama is proving that he is really good at that, but he's yet to figure out how to win the big states, how to win a big message battle, how to win that big war which is what the Clintons always did so well. Here was Bill Clinton, the only two term president I can think of that would win big on election night and see his party lose seats in the Senate and the House. So you've always had that dichotomy in proving that Bill Clinton was always a good big picture guy, but never good with the details of actually being the party leader and Hillary Clinton proving the same thing. One needs to figure out how to do the other and if one does, they'll be the nominee.


O'DONNELL: Hillary Clinton was asked in an interview tonight, you're not going to be ahead in the pledged delegates so you're counting on the super delegates, right? Essentially what she said is, listen. With all due respect to Senator Obama, I won the big states that you have to win in a general election. Will that be the argument that she makes going forward?

TODD: Well, I think it will be that argument and the other argument she's going to make and one I think you'll see pop up a lot more with that pupil (ph) a couple of days ago, which showed that somehow 25 percent of her supporters could vote for McCain and I've heard Pat Buchanan say this and look. John McCain is going right to Michigan and some places that I think he thinks he can win some of these white working class Democrats, the so-called Reagan Democrats and that Obama is struggling to win those over whether it is a race issue, whatever we want to read into it of what the issue is. And that she will somehow suddenly start trying to make that message. And somehow Obama's lost his argument about independents and Republicans which had been such a powerful argument and he's not been as effective selling that. She may end up finding herself as part of her resume that she's got to sell.

O'DONNELL: Rachel, will Howard Dean now have to intervene and will they have to resolve the issue of Michigan and Florida?

MADDOW: Well, I don't know. I don't know what Howard Dean's goal is. Is it to make it most likely that the party wins in November? Or is it the most likely that the Democratic Party is strengthened? I think Chuck's point about what happened in the Clinton years is well taken, which is that Bill Clinton did very well at the top of the ticket and the rest of the ticket fell apart. The state party system fell apart and we lost the state, the state houses and the state legislatures and all of those other elements of strength of the Democratic Party. If the idea is to make sure the Democratic Party survives this stronger than it was at the beginning of this process, that's a different calculus than wanting to make sure that the convention isn't brokered.

O'DONNELL: Yeah, but you have two Democrats who raised $85 million combined in the last month. And aren't there going to be some Democratic party leaders who say, instead of having another month of sending $50 to $100 million on another contest, shouldn't we be spending that making sure that we beat John McCain in November and that we make sure we get more Democrats elected to the House and the Senate?

ROBINSON: Sure and some Democrats will say and in a sense they'll be right. But how do you make this race stop? How do you make it stop?

O'DONNELL: And not that Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton will listen to Howard Dean.

ROBINSON: No exactly. Howard Dean has zero ability to tell Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton to get out of the race. So you know, how does it end? And after tonight, it could have ended tonight if Obama had won Ohio and Texas. I think it would have ended. If he had won Texas, it might have been. He didn't win either and so as you project out, what is left that could knock somebody out of the race?

TODD: I think if Obama wins. This goes to this idea, if one wins something in the other person's turf. But Howard Dean can do one thing. He can settle this in Michigan.

ROBINSON: He's got to do that.

TODD: If he at all wants a legacy as the DNC chair at this point, this will always sit on him. He can sit here and say it was the state parties that brew this. Truth, but he's the leader. This is his party.

MADDOW: Why don't we do that now and not wait to do that right before the convention?


TODD: You can't allow this to be done in the credentials committee. I think you have to figure out how to get Florida and Michigan.

MADDOW: But you also have to hope that it gets settled some other way before it comes down to one man...

TODD: (INAUDIBLE) and it didn't happen.

ROBINSON: You can't wait until Pennsylvania to start fixing Michigan and Florida. You got to do it now.

(INAUDIBLE)

O'DONNELL: All right, guys.

TODD: I think the Clintons want something settled and would rather have a revote than risk the credentials committee.

O'DONNELL: We're going to continue this conversation right after this. We're also going to have more from our exit polls on how Hillary Clinton won Texas and Ohio tonight, these big states. MSNBC's decision 2008 coverage continues right after this.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

NORAH O'DONNELL, MSNBC ANCHOR: Welcome back to MSNBC's continuing Decision 2008 coverage and tonight, big wins for Senator Hillary Clinton. She has won in Ohio, and Texas and Rhode Island, something her chairman Terry McAuliffe first predicted this morning on Morning Joe that she would win those three states. I interviewed him later in the day. He said he was still feeling confident. They have scored big tonight in those states and we're rejoined by our panel tonight. Chuck Todd, Rachel Maddow and of course, Eugene Robinson.

We were talking about where we go now. Does this go on for another three months, all the way to Puerto Rico in June?

CHUCK TODD, MSNBC CORRESPONDENT: Look. Without assuming Hillary Clinton wins Pennsylvania. I mean now the burden is on her. She has to win her states. He has to win his states. I don't see how she stops at this point. What would change? If she's made the decision now, the whole pledge delegate front, all that stuff. What would change after a narrow victory in Pennsylvania and stuff like that? So clearly, she wants to go play this all the way you the will.


RACHEL MADDOW, MSNBC CORRESPONDENT: If she loses Pennsylvania, is there a new mathematical impossibility to her prospect?

TODD: A loss in Pennsylvania for her would be such a devastating blow because it is a Democrats-only primary. It identifies in the face of the idea that you have independents or Republicans crossing over. Sure, Obama does well there. Among actual Democrats, the race is always very close including in Wisconsin and Virginia. They would make that argument. So losing in Pennsylvania, you would lose an industrial state. Pennsylvania is another very important swing state to Democrats. You don't win the white house without Pennsylvania. There would be all these different talking points that Ohio has provided. But after that there's nowhere else to go. You can't sit there and say Indiana, North Carolina...

Pennsylvania is the last big fat delegate prize. North Carolina being the second biggest one. That's a state that feels very much an Obama state. So this is one. It is a must-win for her. But also, an opportunity again for Obama. And at some point, he has to close the deal if he wants to be a nominee.

EUGENE ROBINSON, MSNBC CORRESPONDENT: One of those knock her out primaries.

O'DONNELL: What about the argument that the Clinton campaign has made and will be making tomorrow, that because Hillary Clinton won three of the four states tonight that is correct this will be a buyers' remorse. That Democratic voters are not ready to anoint Barack Obama as their nominee and they want to look at him some more and have this nomination battle go on?

ROBINSON: I have the same problem with that argument that Chris Matthews has which is it's always a new set of voters. So these voters, it is not as if they voted once for Obama and then said, oh, gee. Maybe I really wanted to vote for Hillary. So you know the tenure of the race does change...

O'DONNELL: The Clinton campaign believes they will find nuggets of truth and validation in their strategy over the past week. Among the voters who chose to vote in the last week said they made up their mind in the last week. They overwhelmingly went for Hillary Clinton.

What did we see in the last week? We saw what the Obama campaign calls the kitchen sink. This 3:00 a.m. ad, the questions about his NAFTA support, the Rezko trials starting on Monday. They believe this constant drum beat; question, question, question. The media is too easy on him put him on the defensive. And they'll say it worked. Keep it up.

MADDOW: Two things will happen. The Clinton campaign will try to build on success. What they have seen success that is they go to everything they have at Barack Obama. And Democratic voters are still anew going to be confronted with the same question they've had the answer for a lock time now. Who can beat John McCain? Who can beat John McCain? If looking at Hillary Clinton's campaign makes them say she's good at being on at the attack. If looking at Obama's campaign says it looks like he doesn't fight back hard when he's attacked, that may be a problem for Barack Obama. He will pivot now. We should expect to see more of the same from Hillary Clinton.

O'DONNELL: Chuck, what about what may be viewed as the failures of Hillary's campaign in terms of the contest tonight? He outspent her in Texas and Ohio. Some may say he reacted too much. He spent a lot of time in this last week having smaller rallies, talking more about specifics. She was saying let's focus on solutions. He is all about speeches and not about solutions. So he did kind of change his settings a little bit. Did it hurt him?

TODD: Well, he also approached these March 4 primaries with the exact same strategy it fell like in that Super Tuesday period. He would go on the air with the same ads. He gives the same speech, gives the big rallies. They did try to do smaller town hall type settings. They realized they were getting into that New Hampshire danger zone where it was too much of a rally. But you know he's got to do more substance. He has to answer this charge that he is not being substantive enough and maybe yes when you look at his stump speech and you measure it for issues and you look at her stump speeches, maybe there isn't a difference but it's that perception gap.

O'DONNELL: I remember the first 15 minutes. It seemed like a lot of questions going out there.


TODD: But it's substance. There's a way to do it. You drown people in white paper. You sit here and have -

O'DONNELL: Policy after policy.

MADDOW: I think people are worried that Barack Obama is a bunny. That he is not enough of a fighter. That he has been untested by Republicans and he has been bowled over by Hillary Clinton. And that's nothing compared to what the Republican there's throw at him. I think the substance he needs to show is the kind with boxing gloves on. I think he needs to fight.

O'DONNELL: Talking about fighting. Move whoever wins this will have to fight John McCain. Tonight he garnered a very big prize. He is now the Republican nominee. We'll talk more about that right after this as well as well as some more information about our exit polls. More right after this.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

O'DONNELL: Welcome back to 2008 Decision coverage. John McCain won all four contests and secondly won the Republican nomination. Here's what he told his supporters in Dallas tonight.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

SEN. JOHN MCCAIN (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Now we begin the most important part of our campaign, to make a respectful, determined and convincing case to the American people that our campaign and my election as president given the alternatives presented by our friends in the other party are in the best interests of the country we love.

I have never believed I was destined to be president. I don't believe anyone is predestined to lead America. But I do believe that we were born with responsibilities to the country that has protected our god given rights and the opportunities they afford us.

I didn't grow up with the expectation that my country owed me more than the rights owed every American. On the contrary, I owe my country every opportunity I have ever had. I owe her the meaning that service to America has given my life.

In the sense that I am part of something greater than myself, part of a kinship of ideals, that have always represented the last best hope of mankind. I understand the responsibilities I incur with this nomination and I give you my word, I will not evade or slight a single one.

Our campaign must be and will be more than another tired debate of false promises, empty sound bytes or useless arguments from the past that address not a single of America's concerns for their family's security.


My friends, presidential candidates are judged on their record, their character, and the whole of their life experiences. But we're also expected to concentrate our efforts on the challenges that will confront America on our watch and explain how we intend to address them.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

O'DONNELL: Tonight, a very big night for John McCain as he has won all four contests. His chief rival still left in the race, Mike Huckabee, the former Arkansas governor, has essentially conceded the contest and John McCain is also headed to Washington tomorrow. He will have lunch with President Bush and will appear in the rose garden with the president as the president is expected to formally endorse John McCain and offer his support in the effort of fundraising and helping him to raise money.

And we're rejoined by our panel. And Chuck, how big is John McCain's victory? How big is the fact that Hillary Clinton won important to John McCain?

TODD: Do we think that McCain would be appearing with Bush tonight had Obama ended the nomination?

It is almost easy, this is easy for McCain to get the Bush meeting out of the way now because it is not a bother because this race goes on many you almost wonder when things happen. This was huge for McCain. Had Obama ended this race tonight, Obama would have announced that had he raised $50, $60 million for February.

As the nominee, how much a month do we think he could have raised? $75, $80 million. McCain is not there yet. McCain may eventually start raising $20, $25 million to do it. He doesn't have the operation to do it. He needs time to build an infrastructure. And Hillary Clinton has bought him time. That's huge. It could be now three months before a single Democratic candidate lays a glove on John McCain. And the way Bill Clinton did to Bob Dole.

O'DONNELL: If there were a Democratic nominee, they would be hammering John McCain everyday. And they would have so much more money to do it.

ROBINSON: Couldn't the party, or a 527 or - isn't there some way?

O'DONNELL: Have you seen so much money?

ROBINSON: Should Howard Dean be thinking of this?

TODD: They've done some good stuff when you look at politically, what they've done with McCain on this fundraising stuff. They've created a legal headache for him if nothing he will. The FCC has no teeth. But it has created some bad headlines. So the DNC has done a little of their job. The big job, defining John McCain, which is what the next three months is going to be about, now McCain now largely gets to control that.


MADDOW: You see in term of the volume of coverage and what we've been talking about, it has been 9-1 talking about Democrats. McCain gets this footnote for the night and we get to keep focusing on Clinton, Obama, Clinton, Obama. He gets to keep building his capacity. This campaign is a mess many.

O'DONNELL: Later today is a gift for the Democrats, which is this picture of John McCain standing side by side next to President Bush in the rose garden. Democrats want to make the argument that it is John W. McCain.

ROBINSON: The McCain Bush war. The McCain Bush economy.

TODD: Don't forget, John McCain has spent a career distancing himself from George Bush.

MADDOW: He is running back into his arms.

TODD: It takes time to define that many.

ROBINSON: If Hillary Clinton continues to define John McCain as better than Barack Obama, that's a real problem will.

MADDOW: As John McCain goes to the white house, Bush and McCain ceremonially launch the first bombing sortie of the next war. That they go, they're going to get together and push the ceremonial button to start the next war. He'll be Senator bomb-bomb McCain. And the Democrats on the let will hit him with that. Not foreseeing, which is plainly obvious, not foreseeing that McCain is happily going to embrace Bush. He will embrace the war. He will embrace Iran and the Democrats on the left show no signs of waking up on that. McCain will be happily running into Bush's arms.

O'DONNELL: All right. More with our panel after right this. You are watching MSNBC's Decision 2008 coverage. More right after this.

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O'DONNELL: Welcome back to MSNBC's continuing coverage of our 2008 politics. Very interesting, Hillary Clinton won decisively among Democratic women in Texas tonight. And we're going to break down some of the exit poll, give you a sense of what's going on.

She also can thank Hispanics and late deciders for her victory. In fact, Hispanics in particular made a major difference. They turned out heavily, voted 2 to 1 for the former first lady. Also, Hispanics were 30 percent of the Democratic electorate this year and as you can see, they gave Clinton 67 percent of their votes to Obama's 31 percent.


She was the strong choice among late deciders, those who made up their minds in the last three days. Remember, that's when she was pushing her crisis management skills, of course that now famous 3:00 a.m. red phone ad. She also took those voters by 61 percent to 38 percent to Obama. She edged out Obama with voters who decided earlier as well.

Clinton also won the absentee vote as you can see here. She took that part of the electorate 51 percent to 45 percent. And even among independents where Obama has scored well in the past, the response in Texas was not as great as in previous contests. One quarter of the voters described themselves as independents. From our polls, you can see the Illinois senator virtually tied Clinton in this group. Two weeks ago in Wisconsin, Obama had won the independent vote by a 2-1 margin.

Also, Texas Democrats felt Clinton was better qualified to be commander-in-chief and they believe she has more detailed principals to solve the country's problems.

Bottom line, Chuck, as we look at the numbers, I mean she won back her base tonight.

TODD: She did and then some. It was a big win. She proved that in a big state, they have the operatives to do this. Now they just have to start moving it in more states.

I think that they can't just keep picking and choosing which ones they'll do well in. They have to prove. They're going to skip Mississippi and Wyoming, I guess. At some point, they have to figure out how to win on his terms.

O'DONNELL: Eugene, what about the argument when it coming to the big states, in November, New York, New Jersey, California, and now Texas and Ohio. She wins the base. She wins the people that turn out in November. That makes her the more suitable choice to run against the Republicans.

ROBINSON: All the big states get the bigger headlines. So it certainly advances her campaign from that standpoint. I mean I think the counter argument from the Obama side would be that California is not going to be won by a Republican in the fall. John McCain won't take California. John McCain won't take New York. He won't take New Jersey. He's not going to take Massachusetts. And Barack Obama will do fine in those states. And he is also, you know, going to win Missouri. He will put Colorado in play.

MADDOW: He will win a lot of independents and crossover Republicans.

TODD: Is he going to carry Ohio? Is he going to carry Michigan and Pennsylvania? These are three questions I have in my head about Obama. I believe that Colorado, that Virginia, maybe even Missouri there are places he can change the map. But the map gets change in a different way in the negative to him and those industrial states. There is a question mark. And that is the heart and soul of it.

O'DONNELL: One other dynamic that could change in the past couple weeks. Bill Clinton has -

TODD: Who?


O'DONNELL: I mean exactly. One of the things is that has been one of the successes of Hillary Clinton. We thought we would see Hillary Clinton surprise her on stage and there be with Chelsea Clinton. He was not at the debates with her. They see essentially quieted him?

MADDOW: They took Bill's light and put it under the bushel. The advantage, people concerned that the economy. These advantages peopled I might be going back to the Bill days. I might be going back to eight years of peace and prosperity. People are going to think that and argue that. Whether or not they see him on the campaign and embarrassing his wife.

TODD: And Wyoming. That tells you he go.

O'DONNELL: And on that note. Thank you. Thank you, Eugene Robinson and Rachel Maddow. I'm Norah O'Donnell at MSNBC headquarters in New York. It has been an amazing evening. You can stay with MSNBC. It is your place for politics. Good night.